The ten-week silence of Newspoll – and indeed Australian polling in general, so far as voting intention is concerned – has ended with a result of 53-47 to the Coalition, as reported by The Australian. To this, naturally, must be added the qualification that the pollster never once recorded the newly re-elected government with a lead in the entire three years of the previous parliamentary term. The poll has the Coalition at 44% of the primary vote (41.4% at the election), Labor at 33% (33.3%) and the Greens at 11% (10.4%). The report seems to be saying One Nation is at 3%, which compares with the 3.1% they scored at the election when contesting 59 out of 151 seats.
The leadership ratings have Scott Morrison’s approval at a new high of 51%, up five on the pre-election poll, and down nine on disapproval to 36%. Anthony Albanese’s Newspoll ratings are 39% approval and 36% disapproval, which is a) “the first net positive approval rating for an Opposition leader since 2015”, as noted in the report since Simon Benson, b) the worst Newspoll debut for an Opposition Leader since Andrew Peacock in 1989, as illustrated in this earlier post, and c) the equal lowest uncommitted rating for an Opposition Leader on debut, perhaps mitigating b) a little. Morrison leads 48-31 on preferred prime minister, compared with 47-38 in the pre-election poll, which we can now presume was flattering to Bill Shorten.
No indication at this point as to whether and how Newspoll is doing anything differently. Certainly it looks like business as usual to the extent that the poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1601, with The Australian’s report trumpeting a 2.4% margin of error that is less than the size of its error at the election.
How U.S. cities stack up
There is no city more synonymous with violence in the United States than Chicago. The Reverend Michael Pfleger, a prominent anti-violence activist and pastor on the city’s South Side, has described his city to reporters as “the poster boy of violence in America.”
To be sure, Chicago has a high number of murders: the city often records the highest absolute total killings each year. But as The Trace has noted, the data tells us that Chicago’s murder rate is nowhere near the nation’s worst. On a per-capita basis — murders per 100,000 residents — the city regularly experiences fewer killings than places whose murder rates get far less national attention, like Kansas City, Missouri, or Cleveland.
“Because Chicago has so many people, it can get a murder every day, and that gets people’s attention,” John Pfaff, a professor of law at Fordham Law School, recently told The Trace. “When you focus on numbers, not rates, Chicago ends up looking worse because you forget just how big a city it is.”
https://www.thetrace.org/2018/04/highest-murder-rates-us-cities-list/
High praise indeed.
Their policies of strong public health and education, climate emission action and pull back of Howards largess did match public sentiment. Unfortunately a lot of that were with people who were always gonna vote LNP – so rusted on no amount of WD40 would make them budge. Regardless, policy doesnt sell itself. Never has. The ALP seemed unable or unwilling to stand up tall and strong in interviews and stumps and slap some chops. They gave up on so many mediums, letting the wolves loose to feed on the lambs.
How are you going with your climate denialism now BHP execs have called a climate crisis? Gonna walk out further on that branch and say it is just a marketing ploy? Must be hard work to continually and shamefully defend the utterly indefensible.
zoidlord claims that taking money from a gambler is worse than taking money from a casino that launders money for foreign criminals.
zoidlord has the intellectual capacity of a woodland creature.
Hey! Stop that you empty-headed animal-food-trough wiper.
“For a Democrat controlled city with some of the tightest gun laws in the US the gun deaths are out of control and it is young black males getting killed by each other:”
Bucephalus, you’re dense even for a horse. The Democrats run the municipal government of Chicago, but they can’t control the volume of guns that enter the city from elsewhere in the US, where gun laws are lax.
Bucephalus says:
Tuesday, July 30, 2019 at 12:42 pm
Well if the Potato got Home Affairs in order, then maybe all visas could be handled in a more timely manner.
Just having more money than someone else shouldn’t entitle you to special treatment.
Buce isnt dense, just trying to win the game to make up for a childhood full of losses.
Barney in Makassar
Goodness me, the Liberal Party’s raison d’être is to make sure it does.
Bucephalus says:
Tuesday, July 30, 2019 at 12:42 pm
All applications should be treated as equals
Au Pairs or Shortstay or not.
Just remember recent fascists complain about the intake of people migrating just prior to the election…
Kakuru says: Tuesday, July 30, 2019 at 1:38 pm
The Democrats run the municipal government of Chicago, but they can’t control the volume of guns that enter the city from elsewhere in the US, where gun laws are lax.
**********************************************************
WHAT ARE THE SOURCES OF ILLEGAL CHICAGO GUNS?
According to the Trace Report, about 40 percent of illegally used or possessed firearms recovered in Chicago from 2013 to 2016 came from dealers in Illinois. The remaining 60 percent came from states with less regulation over firearms
MORE : https://www.apnews.com/64e34cffb7db4dc7bf9bcda2ea201ea7
Quoll
The Greens have done what they have done; Liberals enablers. Damaged the environment; damaged society, that is their contributions to Australia.
The Greens will fade as all protest parties do; they have done about as much damage as the DLP/
Labor’s Kim Carr is unhappy and in high dudgeon according to the Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2019/jul/30/spotlight-on-newstart-after-survey-reveals-poverty-rise-politics-live?page=with:block-5d3fbdff8f08d0b6ca53a403#block-5d3fbdff8f08d0b6ca53a403
The former Labor frontbencher Kim Carr expressed strong objections during today’s meeting about the potential for Labor to vote against its own platform when considering an upcoming piece of legislation which gives effect to some of the recommendations from the royal commission set up by the former Labor prime minister, Julia Gillard.
The bill deals with combatting child sexual exploitation and includes mandatory sentencing for some offences, including, (I gather), possession of child-like sex dolls.
:::
At that point, Carr rose in high dudgeon. He asked why Labor would support legislation contrary to the party’s platform. He also wanted to know what the argument was for folding on the legislation if Labor proposed amendments that were ultimately unsuccessful.
A lively conversation ensued. Various shadow ministers spoke in favour of the recommendation, including, I’m told, Joel Fitzgibbon, who said Labor shouldn’t be guided exclusively by the platform.
:::
It’s fair to say Carr’s objections today were both objections of principle and a proxy for disquiet within Labor about the post-election repositioning currently underway.
Quoll
The Greens have done what they have done; Liberals enablers. Damaged the environment; damaged society, that is their contributions to Australia.
The Greens will fade as all protest parties do; they have done about as much damage as the DLP.
Surprise !!
the Australian Commission for Law Enforcement and Integrity doesn’t have the powers to investigate ministers and former ministers.
(The Guardian)
The Guardian
And why is the cross bench pissed?
Mostly because the Australian Commission for Law Enforcement and Integrity doesn’t have the powers to investigate ministers and former ministers.
Hence – no one involved in the parliament will be part of any potential Aclei inquiry.
———–
No great surprise there is a bipartisan unity ticket on not supporting a parliamentary inquiry.
In bed with each other – indeed.
In an interview with Andrew Probyn, Bill Shorten:
“And to the millions of Australians who voted Labor, Labor will still be a very determined opposition and we will still keep advocating our values that plenty of people wanted to vote for us, and we will have to learn our lessons which is why the party is engaging in a very extensive review.”
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2019/jul/30/spotlight-on-newstart-after-survey-reveals-poverty-rise-politics-live?page=with:block-5d3fbc918f08d0b6ca53a3fc#block-5d3fbc918f08d0b6ca53a3fc
Saw a hard-copy edition of the Daily Telecrap in a cafe at lunch today. The front page manages to combine the campaign to oust Sydney’s popular greenish Independent Mayor to replace her with a Developer mate, something about lighting in a park and their ongoing campaign to oppose climate action. Also, gangs have taken over Western Sydney, although unfortunately for the Tele, none seem to be African (surprised they didn’t just say they were). Then Andrew Dolt is outraged that Marcia Langton was honoured by Melbourne University because she accuses people of being racist.
Funnily enough, none of this featured in the ABC, Fairfax or the Guardian. You miss out on lots of “news” without the Daily Rupert.
The Guardian
Speaking before Andrew Wilkie made his fresh set of allegations against Crown in parliament this afternoon, Victorian premier Daniel Andrews defended the state’s under-fire gaming regulator against allegations it has failed to properly supervise the company’s Melbourne casino.
“No, I think the regulator is particularly well-resourced, they’ve been provided with additional money in this year’s budget, they’ve got the powers that they need,” Andrews said.
Wilkie has long slated the Victorian Commission for Gambling and Liquor Regulation as an inadequate regulator, today calling it and Victoria Police “incapable or unwilling” to enforce the law against Crown.
More misuse of the English language!
Adam Bandt warns of a “protection racket” run by the major parties to shield the ex-Ministers presently working for Packer.
A protection racket is where you sell protection or insurance to a third party against your own future adverse actions.
It does not involve covering up for your friends.
Am I annoyed?
You bet!
Will I get over it?
Probably.
Amy R, The Guardian
Pretty interesting ructions in today’s Labor caucus meeting, particularly in light of the podcast interview we published over the weekend, which involved Anthony Albanese outlining Labor’s strategy in this parliament (a strategy that has been dubbed “bitch and fold” in our office).
Simon Katich @ #631 Tuesday, July 30th, 2019 – 12:49 pm
Which they sold poorly.
And also to a certain extent no, not in terms of climate/coal/Adani they didn’t.
Which they exploited poorly, if at all.
There were so many scandals to choose from, yet barely a peep about any of them. We got ads about ‘Palmer/PHON chaos’ but not a single one with pictures of the mass fish kill, etc..
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/joel-fitzgibbon-joins-forces-with-craig-kelly-to-spruik-coal/news-story/c9bdcbda7dc738808723ba949932b0e3
Just appalling that the LibNats are the paid enablers of the thermal coal industry.
And what hope have we with Labor happy to join them …?
BB,
Maybe it should be referred to this ACLEI.
According to Peg above they haven’t got much else to do.
Pegasus @ #664 Tuesday, July 30th, 2019 – 1:56 pm
The LibNat Govt should establish an all-encompassing inquiry.
But it seems they won’t given Labor are on a unity ticket re this issue.
frednk @ #662 Tuesday, July 30th, 2019 – 1:54 pm
The Liberal enablers are truly out in force today.
Bucephalus:
I’ve never heard of anyone—not Peter Costello, nor anyone else—making “applications for ‘Directorships'” of private corporations. That’s not how it works, in my experience.
If you are saying you’re aware of Peter Costello going around making “personal applications for Directorships” then that would be news to me but would certainly go some way to explaining the lack of a success (which was a surprise to almost everyone and in fact a bit of a mystery).
fred,
Yeah, their hurting because Labor has decided to tack back to the middle (where the votes they need to win Government live).
Botherists screaming “Same Same”is music to Labor Leadership that is intent on winning Government.
It was quite clear to me that coal mine areas would not suffer in the short term due to ALP climate emissions reductions policies or policies on Adani. The reasons it was not clear to those in coal mining areas is tied to why these same areas believed there would be a death tax and the ALP would take their utes.
That these areas will need to change their reliance on coal jobs in the medium to long term is obvious. That the State needs to help them in this is also obvious. How an opposition deals with that in policy terms and how they sell it is a nightmare. It is one thing the ALP were always going to struggle with and I have sympathy with them on this issue – especially considering the media environment they were up against in those areas and the allure of third party LNP proxies.
Poverty will always be higher under a Coalition government than a Labor one.
I note the ladies behind the Government despatch box are all smiles today. Very noticeable. An instruction perhaps …?
What about female french au pairs who are also polo players, riding in attired in the fashion of Lady Godiva?
So Bucephalus from your earlier comment and paraphrasing your words…………..
“For a LNP controlled state of Tasmania and a LNP Federal government (in 1996) gun deaths in Port Arthur are out of control and a young white male killed everyone he could in his path”.
I have seen some twisted arguments here from time to time, but your view as to who should be accountable for what is happening in Chicago to fit your and Democrat bash, is about as stupid as it comes.
Fair to say, about the only thing I applaud John Howard for was his stance against guns. But the sick joke of all of that was that he had to wear a flak jacket when addressing his case to the hayseeds who normally vote National – all those good law-abiding country folk – armed to the teeth read to shoot him.
Law and order, gun-toting, conservative style.
Bucephalus:
[‘You don’t see a difference between a Short Stay Visa and a Permanent Residence Visa?’]
Yes, as a matter of fact, I do. A migration agent recently told me that there’s a huge backload of applications for permanent residency, some of which will take upwards of three years to determine. Chinese high-rollers, though, are fast-tracked, some apparently with serious criminal histories, far worse than some of those who Dutton sends back to their country of origin if they’re sentenced to 12 or more months’ imprisonment, and where, in some cases, they have no connection whatsoever to their birth country. Adding to their woes is the fact that when they’re released from prison, they’re detained pending the outcome of their tribunal or court appeals.
https://thewest.com.au/politics/federal-politics/wa-mps-ken-wyatt-matt-keogh-face-losing-federal-seats-in-shake-up-ng-b881274547z
Dan Tehan – a man of immense charisma.
E G,
I heard her pucking was very popular.
I think I met one of those one night in the William Creek Hotel when she was on a tourist bus trip on her week off.
She knew how to handle a mallet.
From the delightful Amy Remeikis.
Kevin Andrews gets ANOTHER dixer. That’s like the third day in a row or something. It’s been a while since he has seen this much action during question time. But I guess he’s still coming to terms with Tony Abbott’s absence and they do say it is best to keep busy.
I think it’s critically important that the promised federal integrity commission has razor sharp teeth.
I’m almost certain the LibNat Govt won’t provide that and it worries me greatly Labor won’t push for that either.
Voters who prioritise integrity in our federal polity should carefully consider their vote at the next election.
Amy dissing MicMac again LOL.
For a Tory, Darren Chester seems decent chap.
Mavis Davis @ #692 Tuesday, July 30th, 2019 – 2:47 pm
He seems a touch less extreme than his colleagues
Rex Douglas:
[‘I think it’s critically important that the promised federal integrity commission has razor sharp teeth.’]
I don’t think an integrity commission has been promised by the Tories. Had Labor won the election, there would’ve been one:
http://transparency.org.au/icac/
I used to find Latika Bourke’s live tweeting of QT useful and when she went to London she left a bit of a hole. But Remeikis has definitely plugged that hole and I reckon does a better job than Latika used to.
The only way to get a federal ICAC is to elect a Labor government. The coalition will never implement one.
Mavis
From his wikipedia entry it may be that young Darren did not spend enough time in a ‘born to rule’ environment to be a fully paid up member of that club.
.
.
“…………….born in Sale, Victoria, the son of a plumber, and was one of five children.[1]
Prior to entering federal politics, he worked as a newspaper and television journalist throughout Gippsland “
Mavis Davis @ #694 Tuesday, July 30th, 2019 – 2:57 pm
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/dec/13/morrison-government-announces-new-federal-anti-corruption-commission
A no teeth attempt by the LibNats.
Given Labors silence re Crowngate I have no confidence in them either.