The ten-week silence of Newspoll – and indeed Australian polling in general, so far as voting intention is concerned – has ended with a result of 53-47 to the Coalition, as reported by The Australian. To this, naturally, must be added the qualification that the pollster never once recorded the newly re-elected government with a lead in the entire three years of the previous parliamentary term. The poll has the Coalition at 44% of the primary vote (41.4% at the election), Labor at 33% (33.3%) and the Greens at 11% (10.4%). The report seems to be saying One Nation is at 3%, which compares with the 3.1% they scored at the election when contesting 59 out of 151 seats.
The leadership ratings have Scott Morrison’s approval at a new high of 51%, up five on the pre-election poll, and down nine on disapproval to 36%. Anthony Albanese’s Newspoll ratings are 39% approval and 36% disapproval, which is a) “the first net positive approval rating for an Opposition leader since 2015”, as noted in the report since Simon Benson, b) the worst Newspoll debut for an Opposition Leader since Andrew Peacock in 1989, as illustrated in this earlier post, and c) the equal lowest uncommitted rating for an Opposition Leader on debut, perhaps mitigating b) a little. Morrison leads 48-31 on preferred prime minister, compared with 47-38 in the pre-election poll, which we can now presume was flattering to Bill Shorten.
No indication at this point as to whether and how Newspoll is doing anything differently. Certainly it looks like business as usual to the extent that the poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1601, with The Australian’s report trumpeting a 2.4% margin of error that is less than the size of its error at the election.
It’s from May but I’ve only just read this article:
https://www.themonthly.com.au/issue/2019/may/1556632800/richard-cooke/news-corp-democracy-s-greatest-threat
It’s a white-hot Howard Beale scream that should be printed out and nailed to the door of every newsroom, television and radio studio in the land.
“Australia invested a huge amount of…blood in East Timor.” Fact check – there were two deaths, one through illness and the other by accident.
“A conversation with an unnamed Yass farmer, not the interests of his farming family, had spurred the minister for energy, Angus Taylor, to seek briefings from the environment department about a listing to protect native grasslands, he told parliament on Monday.
So Angus Taylor should be able to put the ‘unnamed Yass farmer’ up to be interviewed by the Senators then, to verify his story. 🙂
sprocket_:
I do trust that you don’t overstate from time to time?
Do we know which 2 ministers lobbied Q for high roller visa access?
Barney in Makassar says:
Monday, July 29, 2019 at 7:52 pm
“So the intelligence services operated appropriately during the negotiations and conformed with the standards in the Government’s press release today?”
How naive are you?
Everyone has intelligence services and use them to gain information for the benefit of their country from friends and enemies. Obama tapped Merkel’s Phone. Rudd tapped the wife of the Indonesian President. They “stopped” and said sorry because they got caught. If we could tap Trump’s phones we would and you would be happy because that suits your politics. One of our closest South East Allies is also the biggest intelligence gatherer in this country.
Grow up. I’m glad you aren’t a decision maker running our Intelligence Agencies.
Confessions @ #455 Monday, July 29th, 2019 – 9:50 pm
I would say that it hasn’t been stated outside of parliament because, whoever it was, would just jump up and launch Defamation proceedings to drag it all out for as long as possible.
It will be up to Labor to forensically examine the Coalition in parliament when they have had a chance to collate all the evidence and prepare their prosecution.
Which bears no relation to the juvenile taunting from The Greens and their fan club here about, ‘are Labor going to ask a question about Crown tomorrow, and, if not, why not!?!’ 🙄
adrian says:
Monday, July 29, 2019 at 7:54 pm
“And, good old Aussie drug cheats are innocent until proven guilty or something, unlike those dastardly Chinese athletes.”
Our Athletes are suspended and didn’t compete while the Chinese Cheat competed.
And before you tee off – I think our athlete is a drug cheat and should be permanently banned. I have some experience with elite athletes and they are very specifically told do not take supplements unless they are certified as clean. There is no excuse for this case.
Roman Q waited, what, less than a week after his girlfriend was cleared to roll a smoke bomb into the Liberal party room?
On a completely unrelated matter, under the new legislation, can Dutton be excluded from re-entering the country?
Lovey says:
Monday, July 29, 2019 at 9:49 pm
You ignore all those that suffered both physical and psychological injuries including those that were given experimental anti-malaria drugs. The ongoing cost of our involvement there is huge.
I consider it huge because a number of my friends were close friends of Monsta Jones and they continue to mourn the loss and the impacts of the accident.
So go and jam it Lovey – how many wounded and dead is enough for you?
C@t:
Fair enough.
I’m definitely off, but I think I this young man does better than does Mr. John:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rzWSEtahHus&list=RDAjWokqBxODs&index=3
C@tmomma says:
Monday, July 29, 2019 at 9:49 pm
““A conversation with an unnamed Yass farmer, not the interests of his farming family, had spurred the minister for energy, Angus Taylor, to seek briefings from the environment department about a listing to protect native grasslands, he told parliament on Monday.
So Angus Taylor should be able to put the ‘unnamed Yass farmer’ up to be interviewed by the Senators then, to verify his story. ”
Cute but #Fail – completely ignoring all the other factors. Grow up.
I move that the Member for Griffiths be no longer heard because she has nothing and is even more annoying than her usual whininess – more whine than a fully loaded B52.
Oakshott
David O’Hearn
Cheers
Britain’s Prime Minister circa 1998.
https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1155785135683526656
Bucephalus says:
Monday, July 29, 2019 at 9:59 pm
I’m perfectly aware of what intelligence agencies are for and do, but to use them to help screw a new nation out of its main source of revenue hardly seems a justified use.
The International Court seemed to agree, causing the deal to be renegotiated.
I think I went to primary school with his brother. One of the few who did not teach at the hellhole known as St Pius X College
Mavis Davis @ #462 Monday, July 29th, 2019 – 10:10 pm
As someone who bought Madman Across the Water when it came out I find it all a bit sad now…..particularly Elton’s ridiculous rug.
Of course, I’ve since long ago gained a music degree and, well…grown up as have my tastes and expectations.
Still it’s nice to revisit one’s youth, nay childhood……
Now, Proust, yes, where was I…….
The two drug cases are completely different.
The Chinese swimmer was cleared by the governing body for swimming and WADA is appealing this decision. He is currently subject to no suspension and would only be subject to one if WADA wins it’s appeal.
The Aussie swimmer produced a positive sample and was rightly stood down immediately.
Barney,
There is another comparison.
The Chinese swimmer tested positive to a banned substance in the past, and at that time, served a very short suspension in secret.
Cf the very public shaming of the Australian swimmer (and rightly so, too).
Mavis Davis says:
Monday, July 29, 2019 at 10:10 pm
Beg to differ, no tingles from this one.
Reggie backed by Bernie Tupin’s songwriting was something special in those early days. 🙂
He was all over the valley. About a dozen parishes in 30 years. Current one was out Tronno way. Now 58 and current holiday began 3 years ago.
Dandy Murray says:
Monday, July 29, 2019 at 10:33 pm
That’s another issue.
I’m certainly not trying to defend him, personally I think the sanctions should be much harsher and include severe financial ones as well.
Remove the incentives that make the risk seem worthwhile.
Cute but #Fail – completely ignoring all the other factors. Grow up.
I fail to see how this is irrelevant, especially as Angus Taylor has seemingly invented a farmer when his first excuse, er, explanation, fell over.
And, pray tell, what ARE the ‘other factors’? Beyond the naked greed of the Taylor clan there don’t seem to be any. They wanted that pesky grass cleared and they dispatched the one in federal parliament to sort it.
And, telling me to ‘grow up’! Lol. I know abuse is the first resort of the scoundrel but I expected better from you, Buce.
Barney in Makassar says:
Monday, July 29, 2019 at 10:26 pm
“The two drug cases are completely different.”
Because smashing the vials of blood taken by drug testers is nothing? Oh FFS.
C@tmomma says:
Monday, July 29, 2019 at 10:45 pm
“And, pray tell, what ARE the ‘other factors’?”
You can read? It is in Hansard.
poroti says:
Monday, July 29, 2019 at 3:27 pm
Well said Mr Bevan all those years ago………………….and the game remains the same
———————————————-
“How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics in the 20th century.”
————————————————————
and later, John Kenneth Galbraith:
The modern conservative is engaged in one of man’s oldest exercises in moral philosophy; that is, the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness.
Bucephalus says:
Monday, July 29, 2019 at 10:46 pm
No, that could be his ultimate downfall.
The correct process would be to outline his objections to the test and allow the tribunal to decide whether the test was valid.
If it’s decided at appeal that the testing was ok, the destroying of the sample could be considered as failing to comply and would then be treated as a positive test.
Psychlaw
It is interesting that certain parishes had a concentration of paedophiles:
Windale, Cessnock, Waratah, Taree/Wingham, Nelsons Bay, SPX
There must have been an organised ring
“… allow the tribunal to decide whether the test was valid.”
Should be
“… allow the tribunal to decide whether the taking of the sample was valid.”
Bucephalus @ #476 Monday, July 29th, 2019 – 10:48 pm
Okay, I read it, and basically it comes down to, the farmers who had farms containing the Endangered Grasslands didn’t like that it had been classified as such because it was getting in the way of their farming.
Sorry, but I don’t think that’s a very good reason for killing off the Endangered Grasslands in question.
Throwing eggs and milkshakes at Conservatives is very funny and everyone should harden up because it’s a joke and you get your legal fees crowd funded and a slot on The Project.
Yoghurt at a lefty and you are clearly a very bad person.
Obviously.
C@t,
Do we know if anyone else, other than Jam Land, spray their endangered grasslands? Or was it just Jam Land land?
Andy Murray says:
Monday, July 29, 2019 at 11:17 pm
The letter tabled referred to “a breach” being investigated, so that suggests only one.
Taylor was asked this in question time, but hid behind the fact he wasn’t the Environment Minister and so he couldn’t be expected to know.
Maybe Labor could tighten the question to something like,
Do you know of any other breaches for killing off protected grassland in your electorate?
Taylor was asked this in question time, but hid behind the fact he wasn’t the Environment Minister and so he couldn’t be expected to know.
Sure, how could he know if anyone else had done the same, right!?
:sweat_smile:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/feb/10/liberals-took-rolex-and-other-designer-watches-assuming-they-were-were-fake
Ex Minister Ciobo spent a lot of time in China before suddenly retiring before the last Election.
Bucephalus @ #463 Monday, July 29th, 2019 – 10:13 pm
Doesn’t Murdoch have a large property near Yass?
What a drama queen you are Buchephulas. None of this amounts to a huge sacrifice in Australian blood. I wouldn’t want you in the trenches beside me in an all out war.
Lovey
Your attitude to the loss of life and the physical and mental toll of serving in the ADF is beneath contempt.
Members of the ADF know that there is a risk of being wounded, injured, captured or killed in service. They also expect that everything possible is done to avoid unnecessary risk.
One of the reasons I became an Officer in the Army was because I had read so much about the cavalier attitude of British and US Commanders to Australian casualties in WWI & II and wanted to do whatever I could to not have that happen again.
I’ve lost friends in training and to suicide as a result of their service. On Friday I will be going to another Funeral of a veteran.
I suggest you request that your post be deleted.
East Timor Deaths
https://nautilus.org/publications/books/australian-forces-abroad/east-timor/casualties-adf-and-afp-in-timor-leste/
It does seem suicide and accidents were the biggest risk.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/life/wellbeing/2019/07/29/pharmacists-over-treating/?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Morning%20News%20-%2020190730
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/state/vic/2019/07/29/crown-zhou-wombat-hunting/
Editorial: Gilroy Garlic Festival killings are part of a sick American tradition
https://www.latimes.com/opinion/story/2019-07-29/gilroy-garlic-festival-killings-brooklyn-los-angeles-police
Bongo comments on polling…
Newspoll dipped its toe in the water this week and gamely published its findings, while its competitor Essential Research is still punch drunk from its failure to pick the Liberals’ shock result.
Last week Essential published its results showing Morrison was preferred PM and positively approved, but baulked at publishing how people would vote.
There is no such hesitation from Newspoll, which is run by YouGov Galaxy. Its principal David Briggs admitted in a weekend News Corp interview that he may, like other pollsters, have been guilty of following the herd.
Mr Briggs has offered no commentary or change in methodology in the latest Newspoll.
There is now no herd to follow.
Ipsos is no longer polling for the Sydney Morning Herald and Age. This may disappoint political tragics, but for most of the country the disillusionment that leads to disengagement means many won’t notice.
Even in the old days when the pollsters emerged from elections with their credibility intact, this far out from the next scheduled election they could only ever give an indication of how a government was travelling.
The first polls after Kevin Rudd’s 2007 win and Tony Abbott’s 2013 victory had their governments even further ahead than Mr Morrison’s latest 53-47 per cent lead.
Both leaders were toppled before they next faced the voters.
In 2004, John Howard’s first post-election Newspoll was identical to Mr Morrison’s. He lost the 2007 election in a landslide.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2019/07/29/scott-morrison-liberal-newspoll/
sprocket_ @ #495 Tuesday, July 30th, 2019 – 7:18 am
There may be an underlying degree of buyer’s pride dominating the political conversation at the moment. It’s when the reality catches up and the jobs, growth and leadership demanded by the voters is not met by the incumbents that the natives become restless.
Labor just needs to settle, get over their disappointment, stay focussed on the voters they need to influence next time around and wait for the political pendulum to swing back.
Jo Easton takes umbrage at barnaby Joyce’s latest stunt.
The former Nationals leader would be wise to shut up – and for a long time. But Barnaby isn’t wise, he is pathologically self-absorbed.
https://www.afr.com/rear-window/poor-barnaby-joyce-son-of-multimillionaires-20190729-p52bvx
NYT reporter busts Trump for bogus claims about spending ‘a lot of time’ with 9/11 first responders
President Donald Trump on Monday claimed that he spent “a lot of time” at Ground Zero with the men and women who were first responders after the 9/11 attacks on the World Trade Center in Manhattan.
Trump made this claim despite the fact that there is no evidence the president spent any significant time with first responders, and he was roundly slammed on Twitter for seemingly lying about his role in the aftermath of such a horrific event.
The most famous Trump-related footage on 9/11 features the real estate mogul boasting that his building at 40 Wall Street was now the tallest building in New York after the World Trade Center was destroyed.
https://www.rawstory.com/2019/07/nyt-reporter-busts-trump-for-bogus-claims-about-spending-a-lot-of-time-with-9-11-first-responders/
Morning
Barnaby Joyce was the butt of much jokes yesterday on Melbourne radio. Of course, Melbournites didn’t vote him into Parliament so I guess it doesn’t count for nought.
Robodebt is cruel. Involving Debt Collectors who are an Ethics Free Zone from the get go to chase after poor people is just typical of the Coalition.