The metropolitan episodes of this series will feature maps and analysis guided by a demographic model to predict seats’ two-party results, so that areas of over- or under-performance might be noted. However, results maps only really work for areas of concentrated population, and it turns out the model works a lot less well when you move away from the cities. In particular, it records historic Labor strongholds in the Hunter and Illawarra as marginal Liberal seats, which I’m guessing results their lack of ethnic diversity, which the model strongly associates with conservatism. This suggests the model needs to be refined with interaction variables to measure the difference in effects between cities and regions, which I’ll hopefully get around to at some point.
Now for the Call of the Board in non-metropolitan New South Wales, broken into four easy pieces.
Hunter region
Newcastle (Labor 13.8%; 0.0% swing to Liberal): The pattern of the capital cities was reflected in Newcastle, the urban core of which swung to Labor while the low density surrounds went the other way. The Newcastle electorate contained exactly as much of each as to cancel each other out, with both major parties down slightly on the primary vote to make way for United Australia and a lift for the Greens.
Shortland (Labor 4.4%; 5.5% swing to Liberal): In neighbouring Shortland, however, Labor emerged with its narrowest margin since the seat’s creation in 1949. There were traces of the inner urban effect at the northern end of the electorate, but the swings elsewhere were severe enough to take 10.0% out of Pat Conroy’s primary vote. Most of that was harvested by new minor party entrants, but the Liberals gained swings of 2.2% on the primary and 5.5% on two-party preferred.
Paterson (Labor 5.0%; 5.7% swing to Liberal): It was a similar story just north of Newcastle in Paterson, where Meryl Swanson, who should have been enjoying at least half a sophomore effect, copped a two-party swing of 5.7%. The primary vote swing of 5.0% was less severe than Shortland because the minor party market was more crowded here in 2016. In particular, this was one of two seats in New South Wales where One Nation ran in 2016, and the only one where they repeated the performance in 2019. Their vote was up from 13.0% to 14.2%, the second strongest of the six New South Wales seats they contested after Hunter.
Hunter (Labor 3.0%; 9.5% swing to Nationals): Labor’s single worst result of the election was Joel Fitzgibbon’s 14.2% primary vote and 9.5% two-party slump in Hunter, reducing his previously formidable margin to 3.0%. The last time Labor was run this close in a seat bearing the name of Hunter was in 1984, and the time before that was 1906. The coal industry effect was unmistakeable: the Newcastle end of the electorate swung about as heavily as the Shortland booths on the other side of Lake Macquarie, whereas the full force landed at Cessnock. The remarkable 21.6% primary vote for One Nation, more than in any seat in Queensland, was fairly uniformly spread geographically. This left them only slightly shy of the 23.5% vote for the Nationals (who, a little oddly in my view, have the right to contest the seat under the coalition agreement), but the gap failed to close on preferences. How close they would have come of overtaking Fitzgibbon at the final count had it been otherwise is a matter for conjecture.
Northern coast
Lyne (Nationals 15.2%; 3.2% swing to Nationals): David Gillespie held almost steady on the primary vote while Labor fell 2.5% and the Greens fell 2.9%, reducing the flow of preferences to Labor. Fact I hadn’t noticed before: the Liberal Democrats can score pretty well in Nationals seats with no Liberal running, in this case 5.8%.
Cowper (Nationals 11.9%; 0.7% swing to Labor): After all the hype about Rob Oakeshott’s prospects, the result was remarkably similar to his failed bid in 2016. Pat Conaghan, who replaces Luke Hartsuyker as the Nationals member, added 1.1% to the party’s vote, scoring 47.1%, while Oakeshott was down 1.8% to 24.5%. That still left him well clear of Labor, up 0.2% to 13.8%, and he landed 6.8% short after preferences, which was 2.2% more than in 2016. The Coalition-versus-Labor two-party count produced a 0.7% swing to Labor, perhaps reflecting Hartsuyker’s retirement.
Page (Nationals 9.4%; 7.1% swing to Nationals): Kevin Hogan, a Nationals member who vaguely kept his distance from the Coalition after the putsch against Turnbull, achieved the biggest margin ever recorded in a seat that has been an arm wrestle since its creation in 1984, the margin never previously exceeding 5%. Hogan was up 5.3% on the primary vote and 7.1% on two-party preferred, the latter being the biggest swing against Labor in New South Wales after Hunter. There were two areas where Labor held its ground: just outside Coffs Harbour at the electorate’s southern extremity, and behind the hemp curtain at Nimbin in the north.
Richmond (Labor 4.1%; 0.1% swing to Labor): As just noted, the area around Nimbin bucked the trend of a heavy swing against Labor in Page. This regional effect was even more pronounced at the Byron Bay end of Richmond, where a number of booths recorded double-digit swings to Labor. Many of these booths are in fact won by the Greens, who only succeeded in treading water overall in the face of competition from Sustainable Australia and Involuntary Medication Objectors (though the latter, critics of this region take note, only polled 1.2%). The Tweed Heads end of the electorate was and is a different kettle of fish, recording low support for the Greens and a two-party swing to the Nationals. With the two ends pulling in different directions, the distinctiveness of the Byron Bay region is further enhanced, as illustrated by the image below (which would naturally tell a similar story for the Greens primary vote).
South-eastern
Cunningham (Labor 13.4%; 0.1% swing to Labor): The size of the two-party swing typified a dull result, in which Labor fell slightly on the primary vote, the Liberals were up slightly and the Greens vote hardly changed. The primary vote difference presumably failed to translate into a Liberal two-party swing because the Christian Democrats vacated the field after recording 4.1% in 2016.
Whitlam (Labor 10.9%; 2.8% swing to Nationals): The Liberals made life hell for some of us by declining to field a candidate here and leaving the seat to the Nationals, so that a two-party swing could only be calculated by comparing Labor-Liberal to Labor-Nationals. This the AEC, for one, declined to do. By that measure, Labor’s Stephen Jones suffered a swing of 2.8%. In the Liberals’ absence, the combined Coalition primary vote was down from 32.7% to 25.5% as Liberals unwilling to plump for the Nationals opted for the United Australia Party, whose 8.8% was their second best result in the country after Riverina.
Hume (Liberal 13.0%; 2.8% swing to Liberal): Labor dropped 5.3% on the primary vote here, though it went to independent Huw Kingston and the United Australia Party rather than Liberal member Angus Taylor, who was down slightly.
Gilmore (LABOR GAIN 2.6%; 3.3% swing to Labor): One of the few seats that went to Labor’s this was Labor’s eighteenth biggest swing nationally, and the fifth biggest in a seat that can’t be described as inner urban. The primary vote for Labor’s Fiona Phillips was actually down 3.0%, as seven candidates took the field compared with four in 2016 – among whom was spurned Liberal independent Grant Schultz, who came in fifth with 7.0%. Katrina Hodgkinson failed to light up the scoreboard as Nationals candidate, scoring 12.5%. The drop in the Liberal vote exceeded this, so that the combined Coalition primary vote was down 3.6%, similar to Labor. That Labor nonetheless enjoyed a solid and decisive two-party swing suggests a reasonable share of Nationals votes leaked to them as preferences.
Eden-Monaro (Labor 0.8%; 2.1% swing to Liberal): Eden-Monaro’s fame as the bellwether seat was further buried as Mike Kelly held off a swing of 2.1% to hold on by 0.8%. The Nationals might have done better to have stayed out, polling only 7.0% and contributing to a 4.3% drop in the Liberal primary vote. Labor was down 2.7%, the Greens up 1.2%. There was maybe a slight tendency for Labor to hold up better in urbanised areas, but no clear geographic pattern overall.
Interior
New England (Nationals 17.6%; 1.2% swing to Nationals): Barnaby Joyce’s remarkably strong result at the November 2017 by-election was proved to be no fluke, as he gained in 2.5% on the primary and 1.2% on Coalition-versus-Labor two-party in the face of even greater adversity this time. The former accomplishment was no doubt assisted by the absence of Tony Windsor, who polled 29.2% in 2016, although another independent, Adam Blakester, polled 14.2% this time to take second place over Labor, landing 14.4% short after preferences.
Calare (Nationals 13.3%; 1.5% swing to Nationals): The only seat Shooters Fishers and Farmers contested in New South Wales after their state election triumph in March, they managed third place with 17.4% of the primary vote. Nationals member Andrew Gee, a sophomore, was down 2.9% to 44.7%, and Labor was down 4.9% to 22.1%.
Riverina (Nationals 19.5%; 3.0% swing to Nationals): The only seat in the country where the United Australia Party broke double figures, to which it owes a small field of four candidates that didn’t include a Liberal, leaving Palmer’s outfit as the only non-left alternative to the Nationals. Nationals leader Michael McCormack gained 2.7% on the primary and 3.0% on two-party.
Farrer (Liberal 10.9% versus Independent): Kevin Mack was one of a number of highly regarded independents who struck out on the night, managing 20.5% of the primary vote – not nearly enough to disturb Liberal incumbent Sussan Ley, who despite shedding 7.2% on the primary vote still ended up with a straight majority of 50.7%. Ley won by 10.9% after preferences, and suffered a 0.7% two-party swing against Labor.
Parkes (Nationals 16.9%; 1.8% swing to Nationals): Both major parties were well down on the primary vote, incumbent Mark Coulton shedding 7.9%, in the face of solid performances by the Liberal Democrats (8.1%, another example of the no-Liberal-candidate effect), independent Will Landers (7.2%) and the United Australia Party (an above-average 6.3%).
Apropos some recent comments relating to our ‘reactionary’ LNP government. If Wikipedia is accurate, the coalition currently have more LGBTI federal members than Labor and the Greens combined.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_LGBTI_holders_of_political_offices_in_Australia
And it looks like the Robbins Island Wind Farm was proposed back when The Greens were in Coalition government in Tasmania with Labor! It just hasn’t been built yet.
C@tmomma @ #200 Sunday, July 28th, 2019 – 3:40 pm
That’s noice!
lizzie says:
Sunday, July 28, 2019 at 7:22 am
Interest on Gov debt costs more than is spent on housing.
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Housing is primarily a state issue but to the point of interest on debt that is being paid mostly to super funds and other holders of bonds. You could say its a bad thing but its also a backward way of boosting retirements among other things so its not all bad.
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sprocket_ says:
Sunday, July 28, 2019 at 8:12 am
Those ‘where your taxes go’ sheets the ATO includes in your tax statement letter always seem to be missing a few lines:
– franking credit refunds
– negative gearing deductions
– trust distribution concessions
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They are not actually spending.
Nicholas says:
Sunday, July 28, 2019 at 9:02 am
Interest on Gov debt costs more than is spent on housing.
The federal government should be investing heavily in public housing; this is a desperately under-resourced good in Australia.
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Public Housing is a state government responsibility so If the Feds are going to do that then we might as well abolish state government because housing and land use are core state responsibility.
Neal Blewett came out in 2000
Previously he successfully sued Bruce Shephard (who I just found out died this year: De mortuis nil nisi bonum) for claiming that he was gay and this had influenced the government’s AIDS policy.
Commonwealth State housing agreements have existed since 1945.
Well well well, wee Gerard saying “nothing to see here’ re the Amazingly Lucky Taylor Family’s ‘Grassgate’ was not just “luck” for the Taylor family 🙂
.
.
…………. nice of Gerard Henderson on #insiders to say there is nothing in #grassgate.
Did Gerard Henderson also declare that he sits on the Sydney Institute Board with Angus Taylor’s wife, Louise Glegg.
She is Henderson’s friend and co-director.
#nothingwrongwiththatthough
https://twitter.com/MsVeruca/status/1155276139054522368
it’s time says:
Sunday, July 28, 2019 at 4:13 pm
Commonwealth State housing agreements have existed since 1945.
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They have but it is still primarily a state government responsibility. The whole planning framework is determined at state level. This overlap between the two major levels needs to be reformed to ensure better use of resources.
For those who claim that GG is right can fuck off, no body should accept theft of tax payers money, child abuse in churches, and other crimes, that LABOR HAS TO ACCEPT
Labor should accept fuxking nothing, otherwise what is the point of having laws in the first place!
The broader community is also been corrupted because they been breading to accept corruption and only legal corruption is LNP, fascists and churches!
Regarding the proposed wind farm on Robbins Island, Tasmania: at first glance it seems like a roaring good idea. If it can power up to 600,000 homes with renewable energy and provide local jobs into the bargain, what a win-win, or should that be wind-wind.
Apart from spoiling the scenery, which I get, is there any reason why this should not go ahead?
“It will kill the birds,” is an argument often put up by the ideological anti-renewable crowd whenever a wind turbine is proposed. Why should Robbins Island birds be more vulnerable than birds in other places?
I take it that Bob Brown is not opposing wind turbines per se. But it is interesting to note, as Dr Brown himself has, that he opposed the Gordon below Franklin Dam in Tasmania in the 1980s because it would have flooded a wilderness area, even though it would have provided more renewable energy through hydro-electricity.
The Greens began life as a primarily pro-wilderness party, rather than as advocates for futuristic new energy. I think Bob Brown is closer to the Greens’ roots than many of its younger, inner-city members today.
Although I would hate to see any pristine wilderness spoiled, I accept that a successful green energy policy means that a few eye-sores will have to be constructed.
Therefore, I remain in support of a wind farm on Robbin Island, unless someone can provide evidence that it would damage the environment even more, and unless a viable alternative to it is available.
If only NSW Labor had had the courage and vision to introduce this reform while in office, rather than leave it to the Liberals.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jul/28/nsw-set-to-decriminalise-abortion-as-health-minister-says-its-time-for-change
Sir H
Brown’s position is that there are plenty of excellent locations for wind power which he would support and which do not include the Robbens Island downsides.
He has supported plenty of wind farms in the past.
With respect to Robbens Island, he probably knows more than most. In the newfound spirit of Labor/Greens targetting the real enemy, I (now) hereby support Bob Brown in his quest for more wind power.
It is people like Angus Taylor who, when they are not preoccupied with water matters, the Caymans, and native grass matters, who absolutely hate wind power and solar power. They are the sort of people who just love the unicorn of what Brown said in relation to a particular wind farm.
The real climate criminals here are the MPs and Senators in the Coalition who are putting taxpayers money into subsidizing the mining and export of coal and who want to subidize keeping open old coal burners way past their use by date. The secret negotiations for the latter are in train now.
In the interim these arrant bastards want us to talk about nuclear power and wind power killing birds.
Well done, Mr Brown. Stick it to Morrison!
Socrates
Berejiklian wants you to talk about that, and not talk about a certain stadium, not talk about a record drought, not talk about drying towns and to diss Labor where possible.
So, congratulations for talking about Labor not doing something! Nice choice of agenda.
GG is right.
Albo has three years to build a consensus around an election winning suite of policies for Labor. In the interim he can leave it to the Coalition to initiate an endless series of silly bugger wedges with the Culture Wars.
If the economy has tanked in three years Morrison is gone.
If it is still going OK, Morrison gets back in.
Sir Henry Parkes
One of the few industries Tassie has is tourism . So plonking v.large machines in its wilderness will come at a cost to that.How much and is it ‘worth the sacrifice’ ? is for others to work out.
Interesting piece about the Jesus Movement from the late sixties. Their mantra and activities seem to channel the Greens Movement today.
Personally, I see both causes and their activists as prosperity whiners looking to impose their will on other people.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-07-28/jesus-people-what-happened-when-christianity-met-counterculture/11345384
Labor shouldn’t need to rebuild if people were not greedy.
No, the federal government should provide the funding because it doesn’t have the financial constraints that the state governments have, but the state governments should administer and manage the funding.
Nicholas @ #219 Sunday, July 28th, 2019 – 5:32 pm
There’s this little thing called to Constitution which you seem to have no regard for but which changes very rarely.
And the Greens are always their peck , peck, peck, with their little irrelevant impotent distractions.
As they are now anti wind-farm the planet is bloody lucky they are impotent.
Looks like the Bob Brown Galilee basin railway isn’t going ahead. Bob will be so sad. Great little Labor wedge dead.
@Boerwar
I am predicting an economic downturn, which will be worse than the Great Depression was for Australia. People after that will not forgive the Coalition for at least a generation.
This is an article about the research referenced by Henderson on Insiders this morning
Working mums key to Scott Morrison’s election win:
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/working-mums-key-to-scott-morrison-s-election-win-20190727-p52bbq.html
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/the-woman-who-predicted-last-financial-crisis-is-sounding-alarm-again-20190727-p52bcu.html
Trisko did your predict 13 of the last 2 downturns?
North East link in Victoria
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/north-east-link-at-risk-of-becoming-financial-disaster-economist-20190726-p52b6a.html
@frednk
Actually back in the early 2000s, I predicted that there would be an economic crisis around 2008.
@Peg
Mum and dad’s are also easy to get scammed:
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/dont-regret-it-report-it-mums-and-dads-under-attack-from-cyber-criminals-20171009-gyx9f7.html
Pegasus @ #223 Sunday, July 28th, 2019 – 5:39 pm
So, building a political strategy around appealing to upper middle class women was wot dun it!
Another good reason to ignore the bleatings of the Greens going forward.
Whose side are politicians really on? Probably not ours:
https://www.theage.com.au/national/whose-side-are-politicians-really-on-probably-not-ours-20190725-p52arr.html
Pegasus @ #226 Sunday, July 28th, 2019 – 5:45 pm
It’s happening. Get used to it!
Pegasus @ #230 Sunday, July 28th, 2019 – 5:48 pm
Another cynical piece of naysaying from the usual suspects!
Simon Katich @ #195 Sunday, July 28th, 2019 – 3:13 pm
Yes perspective is important. So the LibNats should ease up on Bob Brown and the Lib lites shouldn’t be so quick to parrot them.
Most people have a general idea when an economic downturn is on the cards, but very few people actually predict the “when” – The point is, I guess, if you predict often enough you have to be right. This is a bit like saying a stopped clock showing the correct time twice a day.
I would be chuffed, if we are to have a recession – like a really nasty one like – to know when I should pull the money out from the bank and put it under the mattress?
Give or take within 6-18 months is not good enough………………………..I would be handy to know when it is to start, how long it will be and when it will end………………..
GG
It’s happening but City of Banyule together with other affected councils, have submitted objections based on environmental concerns as well as the businesses that will be impacted.
Greensborough Growler @ #229 Sunday, July 28th, 2019 – 5:47 pm
Shorten and Bowen were simply worse than terrible in selling Labors manifesto. There’s enough evidence now to come to that resolution.
GG
More fool Labor to focus on trying to woo inner-city soft Greens voters back into the Labor fold instead of the aspirational swinging voters in regional and outer suburban seats.
Labor needs to let go the angst of Bandt winning the seat of Melbourne off Labor.
Victoria @ #235 Sunday, July 28th, 2019 – 5:55 pm
Of course they have.
Any initiative to take B-double trucks off suburban streets is bound to be opposed by that collection of Liberal misfits.
I’m happy to say they are wrong.
Tricot says:
Sunday, July 28, 2019 at 5:54 pm
…I would be chuffed, if we are to have a recession …
_______________________________
Delighting in the misery of others. What next – I bet you enjoy a great uncontrolled fire too?
Pegasus @ #237 Sunday, July 28th, 2019 – 5:56 pm
No angst here. I never thought the Greens had anything much to contribute. The Greens are a prosperity Party that will disappear once the prosperity disappears.
Pegasus @ #230 Sunday, July 28th, 2019 – 5:48 pm
I’m really looking forward to the federal ‘ICAC’ proposition being put forward by the Govt. I’m eager to see how the senate crossbenchers and Greens go with giving it the teeth it needs to clean up the backroom dealings of the LibNats and Labor..
Nice to see the age is keeping up their policy of opposing every build.
Remember how deepening the port was going to drain the bay.
North East Link:
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/melbourne-councils-join-forces-to-fight-north-east-link-20190615-p51y28.html
frednk @ #242 Sunday, July 28th, 2019 – 6:05 pm
The new
I have no idea whatsoever whether all, some or none of the article in question is true or otherwise.
************************************************************
My very dear friend Amelie,
Please, don’t tell your husband that the Labor Party are really planning on taking his Hiluxe cab/ute and banning child care for all women wot don’t vote for them.
Vote for me and I will make sure that you personally receive your tax cut immediately and your power bill will be reduced by 50%.
Your friend and confidant,
Julie. 💋💋
*****************************************************
Yes I know it’s stupid – but so would a recipient who received a letter from the LNP and believed any of it.
It’s now good night to all. 📺💤
Pegasus @ #243 Sunday, July 28th, 2019 – 6:07 pm
The counter argument will be appealing to voters interests that the new underground freeway will enhance property values and ensure the demise of the gobbling yellow bellied Politician in our area.
You don’t seem to realise that the federal government funds the states to do great many things. Have you heard of section 96 grants? Perhaps instead of flopping your old member out you should remain zipped up and do some reading in future.
LVT – you obviously did not understand what I was getting at………or deliberately twisted it.
Let me put it in simple words for you………..Many, including some who come here, keep telling us that a recession is due….they also claim they can predict the “when” of it. I salute them……….
I merely was looking for some exact times and dates so I can respond accordingly. If you could not understand this simple proposition I was putting forward you must be lacking something. Perhaps you are just an idle stirrer who comes here with nothing better to do with your time?
Nicholas @ #247 Sunday, July 28th, 2019 – 6:20 pm
Laugh, I almost started.
Housing is a State responsibility. Unless the Feds are raining dollars for undetermined outcomes, then they’ll keep their wallet in their pocket apart from the token amount to show they really care.
As for flopping members, I’ve heard whenever you do it it, people observe that it’s like a dick only smaller. This truth must hurt someone who swings their dick as much as you.
[‘Oakeshott Country’]
[‘Previously he successfully sued Bruce Shephard (who I just found out died this year: De mortuis nil nisi bonum) for claiming that he was gay and this had influenced the government’s AIDS policy.’]
Really, mate, your point is? Though I do admire your Latin(?).