Call of the board: regional New South Wales

The second in a series that leaves few stones unturned in its exploration of the May 18 election result.

The metropolitan episodes of this series will feature maps and analysis guided by a demographic model to predict seats’ two-party results, so that areas of over- or under-performance might be noted. However, results maps only really work for areas of concentrated population, and it turns out the model works a lot less well when you move away from the cities. In particular, it records historic Labor strongholds in the Hunter and Illawarra as marginal Liberal seats, which I’m guessing results their lack of ethnic diversity, which the model strongly associates with conservatism. This suggests the model needs to be refined with interaction variables to measure the difference in effects between cities and regions, which I’ll hopefully get around to at some point.

Now for the Call of the Board in non-metropolitan New South Wales, broken into four easy pieces.

Hunter region

Newcastle (Labor 13.8%; 0.0% swing to Liberal): The pattern of the capital cities was reflected in Newcastle, the urban core of which swung to Labor while the low density surrounds went the other way. The Newcastle electorate contained exactly as much of each as to cancel each other out, with both major parties down slightly on the primary vote to make way for United Australia and a lift for the Greens.

Shortland (Labor 4.4%; 5.5% swing to Liberal): In neighbouring Shortland, however, Labor emerged with its narrowest margin since the seat’s creation in 1949. There were traces of the inner urban effect at the northern end of the electorate, but the swings elsewhere were severe enough to take 10.0% out of Pat Conroy’s primary vote. Most of that was harvested by new minor party entrants, but the Liberals gained swings of 2.2% on the primary and 5.5% on two-party preferred.

Paterson (Labor 5.0%; 5.7% swing to Liberal): It was a similar story just north of Newcastle in Paterson, where Meryl Swanson, who should have been enjoying at least half a sophomore effect, copped a two-party swing of 5.7%. The primary vote swing of 5.0% was less severe than Shortland because the minor party market was more crowded here in 2016. In particular, this was one of two seats in New South Wales where One Nation ran in 2016, and the only one where they repeated the performance in 2019. Their vote was up from 13.0% to 14.2%, the second strongest of the six New South Wales seats they contested after Hunter.

Hunter (Labor 3.0%; 9.5% swing to Nationals): Labor’s single worst result of the election was Joel Fitzgibbon’s 14.2% primary vote and 9.5% two-party slump in Hunter, reducing his previously formidable margin to 3.0%. The last time Labor was run this close in a seat bearing the name of Hunter was in 1984, and the time before that was 1906. The coal industry effect was unmistakeable: the Newcastle end of the electorate swung about as heavily as the Shortland booths on the other side of Lake Macquarie, whereas the full force landed at Cessnock. The remarkable 21.6% primary vote for One Nation, more than in any seat in Queensland, was fairly uniformly spread geographically. This left them only slightly shy of the 23.5% vote for the Nationals (who, a little oddly in my view, have the right to contest the seat under the coalition agreement), but the gap failed to close on preferences. How close they would have come of overtaking Fitzgibbon at the final count had it been otherwise is a matter for conjecture.

Northern coast

Lyne (Nationals 15.2%; 3.2% swing to Nationals): David Gillespie held almost steady on the primary vote while Labor fell 2.5% and the Greens fell 2.9%, reducing the flow of preferences to Labor. Fact I hadn’t noticed before: the Liberal Democrats can score pretty well in Nationals seats with no Liberal running, in this case 5.8%.

Cowper (Nationals 11.9%; 0.7% swing to Labor): After all the hype about Rob Oakeshott’s prospects, the result was remarkably similar to his failed bid in 2016. Pat Conaghan, who replaces Luke Hartsuyker as the Nationals member, added 1.1% to the party’s vote, scoring 47.1%, while Oakeshott was down 1.8% to 24.5%. That still left him well clear of Labor, up 0.2% to 13.8%, and he landed 6.8% short after preferences, which was 2.2% more than in 2016. The Coalition-versus-Labor two-party count produced a 0.7% swing to Labor, perhaps reflecting Hartsuyker’s retirement.

Page (Nationals 9.4%; 7.1% swing to Nationals): Kevin Hogan, a Nationals member who vaguely kept his distance from the Coalition after the putsch against Turnbull, achieved the biggest margin ever recorded in a seat that has been an arm wrestle since its creation in 1984, the margin never previously exceeding 5%. Hogan was up 5.3% on the primary vote and 7.1% on two-party preferred, the latter being the biggest swing against Labor in New South Wales after Hunter. There were two areas where Labor held its ground: just outside Coffs Harbour at the electorate’s southern extremity, and behind the hemp curtain at Nimbin in the north.

Richmond (Labor 4.1%; 0.1% swing to Labor): As just noted, the area around Nimbin bucked the trend of a heavy swing against Labor in Page. This regional effect was even more pronounced at the Byron Bay end of Richmond, where a number of booths recorded double-digit swings to Labor. Many of these booths are in fact won by the Greens, who only succeeded in treading water overall in the face of competition from Sustainable Australia and Involuntary Medication Objectors (though the latter, critics of this region take note, only polled 1.2%). The Tweed Heads end of the electorate was and is a different kettle of fish, recording low support for the Greens and a two-party swing to the Nationals. With the two ends pulling in different directions, the distinctiveness of the Byron Bay region is further enhanced, as illustrated by the image below (which would naturally tell a similar story for the Greens primary vote).

South-eastern

Cunningham (Labor 13.4%; 0.1% swing to Labor): The size of the two-party swing typified a dull result, in which Labor fell slightly on the primary vote, the Liberals were up slightly and the Greens vote hardly changed. The primary vote difference presumably failed to translate into a Liberal two-party swing because the Christian Democrats vacated the field after recording 4.1% in 2016.

Whitlam (Labor 10.9%; 2.8% swing to Nationals): The Liberals made life hell for some of us by declining to field a candidate here and leaving the seat to the Nationals, so that a two-party swing could only be calculated by comparing Labor-Liberal to Labor-Nationals. This the AEC, for one, declined to do. By that measure, Labor’s Stephen Jones suffered a swing of 2.8%. In the Liberals’ absence, the combined Coalition primary vote was down from 32.7% to 25.5% as Liberals unwilling to plump for the Nationals opted for the United Australia Party, whose 8.8% was their second best result in the country after Riverina.

Hume (Liberal 13.0%; 2.8% swing to Liberal): Labor dropped 5.3% on the primary vote here, though it went to independent Huw Kingston and the United Australia Party rather than Liberal member Angus Taylor, who was down slightly.

Gilmore (LABOR GAIN 2.6%; 3.3% swing to Labor): One of the few seats that went to Labor’s this was Labor’s eighteenth biggest swing nationally, and the fifth biggest in a seat that can’t be described as inner urban. The primary vote for Labor’s Fiona Phillips was actually down 3.0%, as seven candidates took the field compared with four in 2016 – among whom was spurned Liberal independent Grant Schultz, who came in fifth with 7.0%. Katrina Hodgkinson failed to light up the scoreboard as Nationals candidate, scoring 12.5%. The drop in the Liberal vote exceeded this, so that the combined Coalition primary vote was down 3.6%, similar to Labor. That Labor nonetheless enjoyed a solid and decisive two-party swing suggests a reasonable share of Nationals votes leaked to them as preferences.

Eden-Monaro (Labor 0.8%; 2.1% swing to Liberal): Eden-Monaro’s fame as the bellwether seat was further buried as Mike Kelly held off a swing of 2.1% to hold on by 0.8%. The Nationals might have done better to have stayed out, polling only 7.0% and contributing to a 4.3% drop in the Liberal primary vote. Labor was down 2.7%, the Greens up 1.2%. There was maybe a slight tendency for Labor to hold up better in urbanised areas, but no clear geographic pattern overall.

Interior

New England (Nationals 17.6%; 1.2% swing to Nationals): Barnaby Joyce’s remarkably strong result at the November 2017 by-election was proved to be no fluke, as he gained in 2.5% on the primary and 1.2% on Coalition-versus-Labor two-party in the face of even greater adversity this time. The former accomplishment was no doubt assisted by the absence of Tony Windsor, who polled 29.2% in 2016, although another independent, Adam Blakester, polled 14.2% this time to take second place over Labor, landing 14.4% short after preferences.

Calare (Nationals 13.3%; 1.5% swing to Nationals): The only seat Shooters Fishers and Farmers contested in New South Wales after their state election triumph in March, they managed third place with 17.4% of the primary vote. Nationals member Andrew Gee, a sophomore, was down 2.9% to 44.7%, and Labor was down 4.9% to 22.1%.

Riverina (Nationals 19.5%; 3.0% swing to Nationals): The only seat in the country where the United Australia Party broke double figures, to which it owes a small field of four candidates that didn’t include a Liberal, leaving Palmer’s outfit as the only non-left alternative to the Nationals. Nationals leader Michael McCormack gained 2.7% on the primary and 3.0% on two-party.

Farrer (Liberal 10.9% versus Independent): Kevin Mack was one of a number of highly regarded independents who struck out on the night, managing 20.5% of the primary vote – not nearly enough to disturb Liberal incumbent Sussan Ley, who despite shedding 7.2% on the primary vote still ended up with a straight majority of 50.7%. Ley won by 10.9% after preferences, and suffered a 0.7% two-party swing against Labor.

Parkes (Nationals 16.9%; 1.8% swing to Nationals): Both major parties were well down on the primary vote, incumbent Mark Coulton shedding 7.9%, in the face of solid performances by the Liberal Democrats (8.1%, another example of the no-Liberal-candidate effect), independent Will Landers (7.2%) and the United Australia Party (an above-average 6.3%).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

343 comments on “Call of the board: regional New South Wales”

  1. It has been over 7 weeks since Pell’s appeal, but still no result. Justice delayed is justice denied, for both the prisoner and the complainant. The Victorian Court of Appeal needs to lift its game, albeit it has had to deal with the Lawyer X scandal.

  2. Victoria says: Sunday, July 28, 2019 at 12:23 pm

    PhoenixRed

    This comment from Rick Wikson was telling……..

    Rick Wilson
    @TheRickWilson
    ·
    1h
    Depends where he’s incarcerated

    **********************************************************

    Lets hope its in some “rat INFESTED shithole ” that he seems to like using against his opponents

  3. “I’m reading this at the moment, it’s by Malcolm Knox, sports writer for The Sydney Morning Herald and sometime contributor to The Monthly:

    Hellraiser

    How evangelical footballer Israel Folau lit a fire under the culture wars

    https://www.themonthly.com.au/issue/2019/august/1564581600/malcolm-knox/hellraiser

    ***

    Ultra-conservative religious fundamentalists have been fuming ever since the postal survey that they asked for (via Abbott) backfired so spectacularly on them. They’ll never accept marriage equality, or any other kind of equality for LGBTIQ+ people. You must remember that the fact that the overwhelming majority of Australians support equality doesn’t matter one little bit to these people. They truly believe they are doing their god’s will, so they aren’t going to stop attacking the LGBTIQ+ community any time soon.

    I should stress that I’m only talking about hardcore ultra-conservative here, such as Folau. There are many moderate people of faith who support equality and they deserve special mention for not imposing their personal beliefs on others. Many probably support equality anyway. They aren’t the issue here.

  4. Fidei defensatrix
    Fascinating that this still appeared on Australian coins until 1966

    The writers of our constitution really were conflicted about an established religion

    Trivia point: Cardinal Moran the leader of Australian catholics refused to take part in the Federation celebrations because the organisers had arbitarily decided to give precedence to the Anglical Archbishop of Sydney. His objection was that as a Cardinal he had the rank of a Prince whereas an Archbishop had the rank of a Duke

  5. OC

    ‘…because the organisers had arbitarily decided to give precedence to…’

    I doubt very, very much that that decision was arbitrary.

  6. Trump blistered for bigoted attack on Elijah Cummings: ‘It’s not even veiled racism’

    On Saturday, President Donald Trump blasted House Oversight Chairman Elijah Cummings (D-MD) for criticizing his border patrol policy, blasting his home district in Baltimore as “a disgusting, rat and rodent infested mess” and a “very dangerous & filthy place” where “no human being would want to live” and suggesting it should be stripped of federal funding. Cummings’ district is actually above average in median income and education, but over 59 percent of its population is black, as is Cummings himself, so naturally Trump would assume it is filthy and impoverished.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2019/07/trump-blistered-for-bigoted-attack-on-elijah-cummings-its-not-even-veiled-racism/

  7. @Rex Douglas

    Given the amount of anti-environmentalist sentiment there is this country. Look at how Scott Morrison got away with an attack on electric vehicles, in claiming Labor wanted to end the weekend with their electric vehicles policy.

    The views of politicians such as Joel Fitzgibbon are more closer to the what is be considered as the center than many would care to admit.

  8. Rex

    No need to get upset about being praised for naming ‘Morrison and his extremists…’ this morning.

    This is a wonderful and refreshing new approach from the Greens. As you, and all Greens recently have realized, all that worn out M.A.D. tosh about same old same old is well past its use by date.

    After all Labor and the Greens both know that it is Morrison who is bent on stopping any rise in Newstart, it is Morrison who is using the LGBTIQ community as political pawns, it is Morrison who is actively bastardizing our muslim communities, it is Morrison who is ignoring climate change science, it is Morrison who is ladling riches to the rich and taking from the poor.

    So, thank you for getting your targetting right!
    My view is that your approach will increase the size of the Left pie – an objective which all on the Left can heartily support.

    So, from the bottom of my heart, thank you for your zeal in attacking Morrison and the Coalition.
    Of course, this constructive and collegiate approach from the Greens deserves the full reciprocity of Labor supporters and you would have noticed that I no longer post negative comments about the Greens.
    Welcome Comrade!
    To the barricades!

  9. Boerwar says:

    [‘How long do appeals usually take?’]

    They vary but it should not have taken this long. Although one should be wary of second-guessing, the longer the appeal takes, the more likely it is to fail. The judges hearing the matter would’ve come to a preliminary view following the hearing. If they thought that the jury verdict was unsafe, they were obligated to release the prisoner, pending the release of their judgment at a later date.

  10. @Boerwar

    Since the Christchurch shooting and the federal election, the government has considerably toned down it’s rhetoric against the Muslim community. Apart from the Christchurch shooting, there must have been a substantial swing among Muslim voters to the Coalition.

  11. Better to have a few rats than to be one

    By Baltimore Sun Editorial Board

    Finally,— we would tell the most dishonest man to ever occupy the Oval Office, the mocker of war heroes, the gleeful grabber of women’s private parts, the serial bankrupter of businesses, the useful idiot of Vladimir Putin and the guy who insisted there are “good people” among murderous neo-Nazis that he’s still not fooling most Americans into believing he’s even slightly competent in his current post. Or that he possesses a scintilla of integrity. Better to have some vermin living in your neighborhood than to be one.

    http://www.baltimoresun.com/opinion/editorial/bs-ed-0728-trump-baltimore-20190727-k6ac4yvnpvcczlaexdfglifada-story.html

  12. “Given the amount of anti-environmentalist sentiment there is this country. The views of politicians such as Joel Fitzgibbon are more closer to the what is can be considered as the center than many would care to admit.”

    The centre of his electorate, maybe. Much of that comes down to self-interest rather than anti-environmentalism though. Coal miners who work in coal mines aren’t going to like it when those mines need closing down. It’s hard for workers in an industry which is dying and being replaced by cleaner and more efficient technologies. Of course there is going to be some resistance to change. It has been ever so.

  13. @Firefox

    Honestly, there is an ideological component to some people’s antipathy to environmentalists. Not surprising given the centrality of fossil fuels to our economy. Therefore; these people see environmentalism as an attack on what they see as one of the foundations of our economy and society.

    I have lived in areas of the country where fossil fuels aren’t a significant part of the economy, apart from electricity and I encounter this sort of stuff from some people.

  14. “Honestly, there is an ideological component to some people’s antipathy to environmentalists. Not surprising given the centrality of fossil fuels to our economy. Therefore; these people see environmentalism as an attack on what they see as one of the foundations of our economy and society.”

    ***

    Of course ideology plays a big role more broadly in the right’s opposition to renewable energy. What I’m saying though is that coal miners themselves hate environmentalists primarily because of self-interest. They’re worried about their jobs first and foremost. We actually understand that, which is why the Greens want to fully support mining communities as they transition. They may not like us, but we won’t leave them behind as the inevitable transition to renewables takes places. This understandable self-interest sets them apart from the rest of the right who’s hate of environmentalists is indeed more ideological and far more illogical.

  15. ‘Tristo says:
    Sunday, July 28, 2019 at 12:49 pm

    @Boerwar

    Since the Christchurch shooting and the federal election, the government has considerably toned down it’s rhetoric against the Muslim community.’

    True.

  16. How words come back :

    Trump’s NYC eateries written up for ‘live mice,’ other ‘critical’ health code violations in recent months

    Their namesake is a Mr. Clean freak, but some Trump eateries are just plain dirty.

    Mice in the kitchen, filthy food prep areas and broken sewage systems are on the list of recent stomach-turning health code violations at a number of Trump-branded restaurants in the city, the Daily News has learned.

    Health inspections at Trump properties from Midtown Manhattan to the Bronx’s Ferry Point reveal the President’s eponymous company still struggles to keep its day-to-day operations clean — though similar infractions have been reported for years.

    Violations at the President’s crown jewel and Manhattan residence — Trump Tower on Fifth Avenue — are perhaps the most gag-inducing.

    http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/ny-pol-trump-restaurants-mice-health-20190207-story.html

  17. @Boerwar

    Only LGBTQI+ people, along with people on Centrelink benefits (old age pensioners are an exception) are the main targets of the government now. Even then Morrison and especially Porter are reluctant to go full on when it comes to targeting LBGTQI+ people although.

    Morrison’s pragmatism has put the Labor party on the back-foot, neither Trump or Johnson can’t do that to their political opponents.

  18. Sectarianism was a feature of the Australian polity up until the late ’60s, the principal manifestation of which was the Anglican/Catholic dichotomy. Things improved when Catholic schools received State aid, the following incident bringing it to the fore:

    [’16 July 1962 – An education strike in Goulburn, New South Wales, where, in response to a demand for the installation of three extra toilets at a local Catholic Primary School, the local community closed down these schools and sent the children to the Government schools. The Catholic Church declared they had no money to install the extra toilets. Nearly 1,000 children turned up to be enrolled locally and the state schools were unable to accommodate them. In 1963, Menzies made State aid for science blocks part of his party’s platform in response to the public debate engendered by the Goulburn strike.’]

    At the time of Federation the powers that be were primarily WASPs. It follows therefore that the Anglican Archbishop of Sydney having been given precedence over Cardinal Moran was not accidental -more a very pointed snub.

  19. William’s analysis is sobering for Labor; given the poor performance in the Hunter and Central Coast
    Shortland flew under the radar but is now on less than a 5% margin
    Hunter, Shortland, Patterson, Dobell are all potentially in play for the Coalition at the next election.
    Who would have imagined this 10 years ago?

  20. They’re worried about their jobs first and foremost. We actually understand that, which is why the Greens want to fully support mining communities as they transition. They may not like us, but we won’t leave them behind as the inevitable transition to renewables takes places.

    Except if it comes to transitioning to a job building Wind Turbines on Robbins Island in Tasmania. 😐

  21. When I said an arbitary decision I was being cute. Moran asked for a reason and was basically told ”just because”. It did give him a chance to embarass the protestant establishment, which he always enjoyed doing.

  22. OC
    Indeed. In some seats there was not a drift to the Right so much as a stampede to the Right.
    GG is right.
    If Labor is going to win the next election it must normalize its position in the culture wars, stop demonizing religious folk, and start targeting aspirational voters.

  23. Oakeshott Country @ #173 Sunday, July 28th, 2019 – 1:50 pm

    William’s analysis is sobering for Labor; given the poor performance in the Hunter and Central Coast
    Shortland flew under the radar but is now on less than a 5% margin
    Hunter, Shortland, Patterson, Dobell are all potentially in play for the Coalition at the next election.
    Who would have imagined this 10 years ago?

    You mean, when the Liberal Party held some of these seats under Howard and Abbott? Oh, probably the Liberal Party.

  24. Patterson is a different seat to the one held by Baldwin; much of that seat is now in Lyne and Patterson has taken much of the old seat of Charlton and is a more appropriate comparison
    I chose 10 years deliberately before the Rudd led Götterdämmerung and Craig Thomson’s wonderful performance as the local member meant Dobell was on about 5% not the current 1.5%
    Personally C@T, I think there are fundamental concerns if Labor is struggling to win a seat based on Wyong

  25. @C@tmomma

    Patterson went through a major revision of it’s boundaries before the 2016 election, when a redistribution turned it into a knife edge seat. On those sort of boundaries it would have been a Marginal Labor seat throughout the Howard years. Shortland along with Hunter would have been a reasonably safe Labor seat on the present boundaries during the Howard years as well.

  26. BW
    I think you have the answer, the smugness of some of the Labor Party in the Kulturkampf and in the dismissal of the aspirations of the lower middle class has brought its own reward

  27. This highest rank in the Anglican church is archbishop. At the time of Federation, the then Archbishop of Sydney (Saumarez Smith) was the senior Anglican bishop giving rise to the title of Primate of the Anglican Church of Australia. In other words, Saumarez Smith and Moran were, it could be argued, of equal rank. In terms of precedence, Moran was installed in 1894, whereas Smith wasn’t appointed until 1897. Moran, therefore, should have had precedence; but, the WASPs were in charge in those days.

  28. KNOT (Toolangi) @knittingnannasT
    ·
    31m
    @DanielAndrewsMP
    the magic pudding approach to the ‘timber’ industry isn’t working anymore. This is appalling!
    ***
    RIP to the gliders in this beautiful area of Kinglake. We know that they won’t survive this logging and will die slowly of starvation over a week. They are in our hearts.

  29. Interesting how the assembled geniuses of the ALP right, who were predicting with ridiculous certainty, an ALP victory, are now back and giving us the continued benefit of their unparalleled wisdom and insight.

  30. Plans by the NSW Government to strip protection from old-growth forests in the state’s north-east will cause the loss of as many as 70,000 key habitat trees, the independent Natural Resources Commission estimates.

    The expected tree loss follows a decision last year to overhaul rules for coastal forestry that increased loggers’ access to timber previously off limits. The remapping and rezoning affects 14,600 hectares in the north-east alone in the initial phase and potentially five times eventually.

    https://www.theage.com.au/environment/conservation/old-growth-forests-logged-as-tree-planting-in-sydney-accelerates-20190725-p52asl.html

  31. In 1911 Moran declared that May 24, the feast of Mary, Help of Christians (the co-patroness saint of Australia) would be celebrated as “Australia Day”

    May 24 was of course Queen Victoria’s Birthday and celebrated by normal people as “Empire Day”. Moran was a very bitter man

  32. [‘Moran was a very bitter man.’]

    I wouldn’t know about that but he did have a good turnout at his funeral:

    [‘Moran died in Manly, Sydney, in August 1911, aged 80. A quarter of a million people (the largest crowd ever to gather in Australia until that date) witnessed his funeral procession through the centre of Sydney. He is buried in St Mary’s Cathedral, Sydney.’]

  33. “Except if it comes to transitioning to a job building Wind Turbines on Robbins Island in Tasmania. ”

    What a silly thing to say. Unsurprising that you’re running the same line News Corp is though, such is your desperation to attack the Greens.

    I can’t believe I actually have to explain this, but just because it’s renewable energy infrastructure doesn’t mean that everywhere is a suitable location to build it.

  34. Firefox @ #188 Sunday, July 28th, 2019 – 2:49 pm

    “Except if it comes to transitioning to a job building Wind Turbines on Robbins Island in Tasmania. ”

    What a silly thing to say. Unsurprising that you’re running the same line News Corp is though, such is your desperation to attack the Greens.

    I can’t believe I actually have to explain this, but just because it’s renewable energy infrastructure doesn’t mean that everywhere is a suitable location to build it.

    Ah, so The Greens have worked out their arse-c0vering excuses now, have they? The Roaring Forties not windy enough?

    However, before you start on, ‘the birds’, point me to evidence that shows conclusively that birds aren’t able to navigate around wind turbines and keep being scythed out of the sky? Haven’t heard about it happening in the Northern or Southern Hemisphere where wind turbines have been erected.

  35. C@t

    Do birds die? It all depends.

    In the past couple of decades, turbine designs have changed dramatically. Turbine blades are now solid, meaning no lattice structure to attract birds looking to perch. Also, the blades’ surface area is much larger, so they don’t have to spin as fast to generate power. Slower-moving blades mean fewer bird collisions.

    Perhaps the biggest change in wind-farm safety, though, has to do with location. Now, all new turbine proposals are reviewed for ideal, bird-friendly placement. Wind farms cannot be built in migratory pathways, in areas with high bird populations, or in areas with special features that could possibly attract high bird populations in the future. Also, the growing trend toward offshore turbine construction bodes well for birds, since offshore wind farms have fewer bird collisions than land-based farms.

    The Wisconsin Bird Initiative states that wind turbines have a “low impact” on avian mortality compared to window glass and communication towers. And in 2006, the Audubon Society gave its figurative seal of approval to the American Wind Energy Association. The president of the national organization is quoted by Renewable Energy World as stating, “When you look at a wind turbine, you can find the bird carcasses and count them. With a coal-fired power plant, you can’t count the carcasses, but it’s going to kill a lot more birds” .

    https://science.howstuffworks.com/environmental/green-science/wind-turbine-kill-birds2.htm

  36. Oakeshott Country,
    Boundaries of the electorate of Dobell:
    The division is located in the Central Coast region and includes the towns of The Entrance, Tuggerah and Wyong. The electorate stretches from Blue Haven in the north to Wyoming in the south, from The Entrance in the East through the Jilliby Valley. The division includes the suburbs Bateau Bay, Berkeley Vale, Blue Haven, The Entrance, Gorokan, Jilliby, Lisarow, Ourimbah, Toukley, Tuggerah, Tumbi Umbi, Wamberal, Wyoming, and Wyong.

    It’s not just Wyong, that’s for sure and the Liberals count on swaying the new voters who have moved into the high rise apartments of The Entrance, the Retiree crowd, as well as the Tradie crowd who have settled around Ourimbah, Lisarow, Blue Haven and Berkeley Vale. Not to mention the horsey crowd on the acreages of Tumbi Umbi and Jilliby and the Upper Crust Sun-Bleached Set from Wamberal.

    Labor can’t even count on Wyong because that is where the Low Information voters are concentrated and they probably believed Clive Palmer’s ads and love Pauline.

    So it’s not a case of, ‘if Labor can’t even win Wyong’… There’s more to it than that wrt the seat of Dobell.

  37. Re birds, I used to work in a high rise office tower in Sydney. From time to time you’d see a shattered window on an upper level, say the 20th floor. The explanation was that a bird flew into the window at full speed, apparently thinking it was a gap they could fly through. It didn’t happen that often so most birds were smart enough not to do it.

    The life of a bird is full of hazards. I don’t think that wind farms would make a material difference to bird life, unlike global heating. The impact of wind turbines on birds is mostly raised by people who couldn’t give a stuff about wild life running interference for coal.

  38. “However, before you start on…”

    Cat, I’m not starting on anything lol. The location is not suitable. To suggest that that means that the Greens are anti-renewables is just so laughable and pathetic that I’m not even going to bother with it.

    Honestly, you’re starting to sound more and more like Briefly, such is your desperation to attack the Greens over any little non-issue in an attempt to distract from Labor’s current predicament. It’s not working. All you’re succeeding in doing is digging yourself into deeper holes. Why don’t you remind me again how Greens voters like me saved Justine Elliot in Richmond? Oops!! Nope, quick, that one backfired. Doesn’t support the nonsense propaganda that the Greens side with the Coalition, so now you’ve moved on to your next bit of bullshit. Yawwwwwn.

  39. Firefox @ #197 Sunday, July 28th, 2019 – 3:19 pm

    “However, before you start on…”

    Cat, I’m not starting on anything lol. The location is not suitable. To suggest that that means that the Greens are anti-renewables is just so laughable and pathetic that I’m not even going to bother with it.

    Honestly, you’re starting to sound more and more like Briefly, such is your desperation to attack the Greens over any little non-issue in an attempt to distract from Labor’s current predicament. It’s not working. All you’re succeeding in doing is digging yourself into deeper holes. Why don’t you remind me again how Greens voters like me saved Justine Elliot in Richmond? Oops!! Nope, quick, that one backfired. Doesn’t support the nonsense propaganda that the Greens side with the Coalition, so now you’ve moved on to your next bit of bullshit. Yawwwwwn.

    What a mouthful of garbage. Probably recycled garbage though. 🙂

    And no, The Greens were trying to beat Justine Elliott in Richmond. But she beat The Greens’ candidate. 😉

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *