Call of the board: regional New South Wales

The second in a series that leaves few stones unturned in its exploration of the May 18 election result.

The metropolitan episodes of this series will feature maps and analysis guided by a demographic model to predict seats’ two-party results, so that areas of over- or under-performance might be noted. However, results maps only really work for areas of concentrated population, and it turns out the model works a lot less well when you move away from the cities. In particular, it records historic Labor strongholds in the Hunter and Illawarra as marginal Liberal seats, which I’m guessing results their lack of ethnic diversity, which the model strongly associates with conservatism. This suggests the model needs to be refined with interaction variables to measure the difference in effects between cities and regions, which I’ll hopefully get around to at some point.

Now for the Call of the Board in non-metropolitan New South Wales, broken into four easy pieces.

Hunter region

Newcastle (Labor 13.8%; 0.0% swing to Liberal): The pattern of the capital cities was reflected in Newcastle, the urban core of which swung to Labor while the low density surrounds went the other way. The Newcastle electorate contained exactly as much of each as to cancel each other out, with both major parties down slightly on the primary vote to make way for United Australia and a lift for the Greens.

Shortland (Labor 4.4%; 5.5% swing to Liberal): In neighbouring Shortland, however, Labor emerged with its narrowest margin since the seat’s creation in 1949. There were traces of the inner urban effect at the northern end of the electorate, but the swings elsewhere were severe enough to take 10.0% out of Pat Conroy’s primary vote. Most of that was harvested by new minor party entrants, but the Liberals gained swings of 2.2% on the primary and 5.5% on two-party preferred.

Paterson (Labor 5.0%; 5.7% swing to Liberal): It was a similar story just north of Newcastle in Paterson, where Meryl Swanson, who should have been enjoying at least half a sophomore effect, copped a two-party swing of 5.7%. The primary vote swing of 5.0% was less severe than Shortland because the minor party market was more crowded here in 2016. In particular, this was one of two seats in New South Wales where One Nation ran in 2016, and the only one where they repeated the performance in 2019. Their vote was up from 13.0% to 14.2%, the second strongest of the six New South Wales seats they contested after Hunter.

Hunter (Labor 3.0%; 9.5% swing to Nationals): Labor’s single worst result of the election was Joel Fitzgibbon’s 14.2% primary vote and 9.5% two-party slump in Hunter, reducing his previously formidable margin to 3.0%. The last time Labor was run this close in a seat bearing the name of Hunter was in 1984, and the time before that was 1906. The coal industry effect was unmistakeable: the Newcastle end of the electorate swung about as heavily as the Shortland booths on the other side of Lake Macquarie, whereas the full force landed at Cessnock. The remarkable 21.6% primary vote for One Nation, more than in any seat in Queensland, was fairly uniformly spread geographically. This left them only slightly shy of the 23.5% vote for the Nationals (who, a little oddly in my view, have the right to contest the seat under the coalition agreement), but the gap failed to close on preferences. How close they would have come of overtaking Fitzgibbon at the final count had it been otherwise is a matter for conjecture.

Northern coast

Lyne (Nationals 15.2%; 3.2% swing to Nationals): David Gillespie held almost steady on the primary vote while Labor fell 2.5% and the Greens fell 2.9%, reducing the flow of preferences to Labor. Fact I hadn’t noticed before: the Liberal Democrats can score pretty well in Nationals seats with no Liberal running, in this case 5.8%.

Cowper (Nationals 11.9%; 0.7% swing to Labor): After all the hype about Rob Oakeshott’s prospects, the result was remarkably similar to his failed bid in 2016. Pat Conaghan, who replaces Luke Hartsuyker as the Nationals member, added 1.1% to the party’s vote, scoring 47.1%, while Oakeshott was down 1.8% to 24.5%. That still left him well clear of Labor, up 0.2% to 13.8%, and he landed 6.8% short after preferences, which was 2.2% more than in 2016. The Coalition-versus-Labor two-party count produced a 0.7% swing to Labor, perhaps reflecting Hartsuyker’s retirement.

Page (Nationals 9.4%; 7.1% swing to Nationals): Kevin Hogan, a Nationals member who vaguely kept his distance from the Coalition after the putsch against Turnbull, achieved the biggest margin ever recorded in a seat that has been an arm wrestle since its creation in 1984, the margin never previously exceeding 5%. Hogan was up 5.3% on the primary vote and 7.1% on two-party preferred, the latter being the biggest swing against Labor in New South Wales after Hunter. There were two areas where Labor held its ground: just outside Coffs Harbour at the electorate’s southern extremity, and behind the hemp curtain at Nimbin in the north.

Richmond (Labor 4.1%; 0.1% swing to Labor): As just noted, the area around Nimbin bucked the trend of a heavy swing against Labor in Page. This regional effect was even more pronounced at the Byron Bay end of Richmond, where a number of booths recorded double-digit swings to Labor. Many of these booths are in fact won by the Greens, who only succeeded in treading water overall in the face of competition from Sustainable Australia and Involuntary Medication Objectors (though the latter, critics of this region take note, only polled 1.2%). The Tweed Heads end of the electorate was and is a different kettle of fish, recording low support for the Greens and a two-party swing to the Nationals. With the two ends pulling in different directions, the distinctiveness of the Byron Bay region is further enhanced, as illustrated by the image below (which would naturally tell a similar story for the Greens primary vote).

South-eastern

Cunningham (Labor 13.4%; 0.1% swing to Labor): The size of the two-party swing typified a dull result, in which Labor fell slightly on the primary vote, the Liberals were up slightly and the Greens vote hardly changed. The primary vote difference presumably failed to translate into a Liberal two-party swing because the Christian Democrats vacated the field after recording 4.1% in 2016.

Whitlam (Labor 10.9%; 2.8% swing to Nationals): The Liberals made life hell for some of us by declining to field a candidate here and leaving the seat to the Nationals, so that a two-party swing could only be calculated by comparing Labor-Liberal to Labor-Nationals. This the AEC, for one, declined to do. By that measure, Labor’s Stephen Jones suffered a swing of 2.8%. In the Liberals’ absence, the combined Coalition primary vote was down from 32.7% to 25.5% as Liberals unwilling to plump for the Nationals opted for the United Australia Party, whose 8.8% was their second best result in the country after Riverina.

Hume (Liberal 13.0%; 2.8% swing to Liberal): Labor dropped 5.3% on the primary vote here, though it went to independent Huw Kingston and the United Australia Party rather than Liberal member Angus Taylor, who was down slightly.

Gilmore (LABOR GAIN 2.6%; 3.3% swing to Labor): One of the few seats that went to Labor’s this was Labor’s eighteenth biggest swing nationally, and the fifth biggest in a seat that can’t be described as inner urban. The primary vote for Labor’s Fiona Phillips was actually down 3.0%, as seven candidates took the field compared with four in 2016 – among whom was spurned Liberal independent Grant Schultz, who came in fifth with 7.0%. Katrina Hodgkinson failed to light up the scoreboard as Nationals candidate, scoring 12.5%. The drop in the Liberal vote exceeded this, so that the combined Coalition primary vote was down 3.6%, similar to Labor. That Labor nonetheless enjoyed a solid and decisive two-party swing suggests a reasonable share of Nationals votes leaked to them as preferences.

Eden-Monaro (Labor 0.8%; 2.1% swing to Liberal): Eden-Monaro’s fame as the bellwether seat was further buried as Mike Kelly held off a swing of 2.1% to hold on by 0.8%. The Nationals might have done better to have stayed out, polling only 7.0% and contributing to a 4.3% drop in the Liberal primary vote. Labor was down 2.7%, the Greens up 1.2%. There was maybe a slight tendency for Labor to hold up better in urbanised areas, but no clear geographic pattern overall.

Interior

New England (Nationals 17.6%; 1.2% swing to Nationals): Barnaby Joyce’s remarkably strong result at the November 2017 by-election was proved to be no fluke, as he gained in 2.5% on the primary and 1.2% on Coalition-versus-Labor two-party in the face of even greater adversity this time. The former accomplishment was no doubt assisted by the absence of Tony Windsor, who polled 29.2% in 2016, although another independent, Adam Blakester, polled 14.2% this time to take second place over Labor, landing 14.4% short after preferences.

Calare (Nationals 13.3%; 1.5% swing to Nationals): The only seat Shooters Fishers and Farmers contested in New South Wales after their state election triumph in March, they managed third place with 17.4% of the primary vote. Nationals member Andrew Gee, a sophomore, was down 2.9% to 44.7%, and Labor was down 4.9% to 22.1%.

Riverina (Nationals 19.5%; 3.0% swing to Nationals): The only seat in the country where the United Australia Party broke double figures, to which it owes a small field of four candidates that didn’t include a Liberal, leaving Palmer’s outfit as the only non-left alternative to the Nationals. Nationals leader Michael McCormack gained 2.7% on the primary and 3.0% on two-party.

Farrer (Liberal 10.9% versus Independent): Kevin Mack was one of a number of highly regarded independents who struck out on the night, managing 20.5% of the primary vote – not nearly enough to disturb Liberal incumbent Sussan Ley, who despite shedding 7.2% on the primary vote still ended up with a straight majority of 50.7%. Ley won by 10.9% after preferences, and suffered a 0.7% two-party swing against Labor.

Parkes (Nationals 16.9%; 1.8% swing to Nationals): Both major parties were well down on the primary vote, incumbent Mark Coulton shedding 7.9%, in the face of solid performances by the Liberal Democrats (8.1%, another example of the no-Liberal-candidate effect), independent Will Landers (7.2%) and the United Australia Party (an above-average 6.3%).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

343 comments on “Call of the board: regional New South Wales”

Comments Page 3 of 7
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  3. mundo @ #100 Sunday, July 28th, 2019 – 10:27 am

    Goll @ #94 Sunday, July 28th, 2019 – 10:24 am

    The Coalition team song, (apologies to J Williamson)

    Give me a rort among the shonk….ies
    With lots of flunkies
    A rort or two, a kickback too
    A tax rort out the back
    A denial out the front
    And an old mocking stare.

    And the Labor party doesn’t care.

    Which is why they spent last week in parliament investigating Grassgate.

    Fair dinkum, this mundo character is like a broken record, with nothing on it, just white noise.

  5. Mavis Davis

    Thank you for the Phillip Adams link. People like him give us a better sense of history. I don’t always listen to LNL because sleepiness, but I have always enjoyed him.

  6. GG

    The survey also found 87 per cent of people agreed it was important students “make their own decisions about spirituality and faith”.

    There is a difference between religion and spirituality that is not acknowledged.

  8. “Bloody depressing. Oh well, at least The Greens can’t claim bragging rights for the seat of Richmond. Again.”

    ***

    I’ll take the Greens’ result in Richmond over Labor’s result in Robertson any day of the week lol. And yes, again, the Greens have ensured that Richmond wasn’t won by the Nats. It’s one of the many seats that Labor only hold because of the Greens. Yet more evidence to disprove the nonsense you Labor trolls go on with about the Greens helping the Libs (or in this seat the Nats in their place).

    This kind of tells the whole story though. Labor have been reduced to celebrating about seats they held on to because of Greens’ preferences. Meanwhile, some Labor supporters attack Greens like me with false propaganda and claim we support the Libs. You can’t have it both ways.

    Really, Cat, you should be thanking me on Justine Elliot’s behalf for saving her backside with my preference yet again. If it wasn’t for Greens like me giving her our preferences, Labor would’ve lost another seat.

  9. lizzie @ #106 Sunday, July 28th, 2019 – 10:54 am

    GG

    The survey also found 87 per cent of people agreed it was important students “make their own decisions about spirituality and faith”.

    There is a difference between religion and spirituality that is not acknowledged.

    Um, read the last bit in brackets. It distinguishes between the two and states it clearly.

  14. “Then they like to emphasise the narrative that everyone is sick of politicians.”

    I think this has been, at least initially, promoted into a truism, “accepted wisdom”, by certain forces of darkness in the media.

    Sure, this negativity concerning politicians is repeated unattributed by now, but once upon a time you could hear the odd positive word about pollies. Very rarely nowadays.

    The ultimate end point seems to be that, since they’re all so bad, we should stick with the incumbents (as long as those incumbents are conservative, of course).

    A nuance here is, first, to destroy all faith in all politicians, but then to only list misbehaviour (whether real or imagined) in left-leaning politicians.

    A further aim, in my opinion, is for the media to spruik for the “anti-politician”: your Trump, your Boris Johnson, your Clive Palmer. While there was a bit of sniggering during the campaign over Palmer’s chutzpah in predicting he would be PM after the election, I saw little discussion on his actual policies, or his character (until now, after the election).

    Speaking of chutzpah, I can still remember Tony Abbott – the consumate political animal – telling us with a straight face that we shouldn’t trust a politician on the Republic issue, or in appointing our President, even amounting to distrusting the entire Parliament with the latter task. Instead, we should trust a single politician, the PM (ironically to be actually Abbott himself in years to come), to continue appointing the Governor-General. As with many modern memes, the arch dinosaur of Australian politics, Tony Abbott, was well ahead of the game, as far back as 1998.

    Confusion always produces profit, and profiteers. Who profits from the current hatred of politicians?

  17. Tristo @ #116 Sunday, July 28th, 2019 – 11:10 am

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jul/27/anthony-albanese-on-the-progressive-backlash-people-are-looking-for-easy-answers#comment-131439910

    Joe Hildebrand is right in saying, that Anthony Albanese is the type of person who can heal Australia’s soul.

    Albo’s day job is building a consituency that will elect labor to Government. Focussing on what the majority want to hear about might be good start to restoring credibility to the political class.

    “Healing” and “Soul” is just not a part of the job description.

  18. GG

    I think we’re at cross purposes. My original comment was a general statement that difference between religion and spirituality is not always appreciated by those who mock “religion”. Sorry for confusion.

  19. Bingo!

    @rnclelland
    ·7m

    So, Gerard Henderson:
    I’m sure it was simple geriatric oversight that you failed to mention Angus Taylor’s wife is on the board of your Sydney Institute.
    Of course it was.
    You shameless old hack.
    #insiders #auspol

  20. @Greensborough Growler

    I don’t deny Albanese’s day job, however he seems to be kind of political leader who can achieve what I have described above.

    Australia is much less politically polarized than America is, look at the pretty uniform results for the Same Sex Marriage plebiscite and the highest No votes occurred in suburbs of Sydney and Melbourne to a lesser extent dominated by migrants from much more socially conservative countries as Australia. American friends of mine fear that Civil War could occur in America in the next few years, that is how polarized American society is currently.

  22. Bushfire Bill @ #114 Sunday, July 28th, 2019 – 11:05 am

    “Then they like to emphasise the narrative that everyone is sick of politicians.”

    I think this has been, at least initially, promoted into a truism, “accepted wisdom”, by certain forces of darkness in the media.

    Sure, this negativity concerning politicians is repeated unattributed by now, but once upon a time you could hear the odd positive word about pollies. Very rarely nowadays.

    The ultimate end point seems to be that, since they’re all so bad, we should stick with the incumbents (as long as those incumbents are conservative, of course).

    A nuance here is, first, to destroy all faith in all politicians, but then to only list misbehaviour (whether real or imagined) in left-leaning politicians.

    A further aim, in my opinion, is for the media to spruik for the “anti-politician”: your Trump, your Boris Johnson, your Clive Palmer. While there was a bit of sniggering during the campaign over Palmer’s chutzpah in predicting he would be PM after the election, I saw little discussion on his actual policies, or his character (until now, after the election).

    Speaking of chutzpah, I can still remember Tony Abbott – the consumate political animal – telling us with a straight face that we shouldn’t trust a politician on the Republic issue, or in appointing our President, even amounting to distrusting the entire Parliament with the latter task. Instead, we should trust a single politician, the PM (ironically to be actually Abbott himself in years to come), to continue appointing the Governor-General. As with many modern memes, the arch dinosaur of Australian politics, Tony Abbott, was well ahead of the game, as far back as 1998.

    Confusion always produces profit, and profiteers. Who profits from the current hatred of politicians?

    The media has a vested interest in promoting controversy and contention. It’s in their interests to show people, ideas and situations as being flawed. Their commentary and reporting then becomes an alternate source of power. So, we end up in this never ending news cycle of fear, uncertainty and doubt.

  24. I have friends who have faith in superstition….crystals, sport rituals, etc. so the word ‘faith’ covers much more than just religion.
    When religious people don’t practice what they preach, they deserve to be called out.
    Too many are hypocrites, hiding behind their bible/religion.

  25. “A further aim, in my opinion, is for the media to spruik for the “anti-politician”: your Trump, your Boris Johnson, your Clive Palmer. While there was a bit of sniggering during the campaign over Palmer’s chutzpah in predicting he would be PM after the election, I saw little discussion on his actual policies, or his character (until now, after the election).”

    ***

    The conservative right are so easily fooled. People like Trump, Palmer, Morrison, Johnson, etc… are the ultimate establishment insiders. They represent everything that is wrong with the current system which encourages rampant capitalism and cons the masses with the lie of “trickle down economics”. Often, those who will be hurt the most by the conservative right’s policies are the biggest supporters of their politicians. If the masses keep voting for conservative right wingers then they’re going to keep getting abused by those same conservative right wingers. Helping people is the LAST thing the right care about. All they care about is making more money at everyone else’s expense.

  26. Tristo @ #120 Sunday, July 28th, 2019 – 11:25 am

    @Greensborough Growler

    I don’t deny Albanese’s day job, however he seems to be kind of political leader who can achieve what I have described above.

    Australia is much less politically polarized than America is, look at the pretty uniform results for the Same Sex Marriage plebiscite and the highest No votes occurred in suburbs of Sydney and Melbourne to a lesser extent dominated by migrants from much more socially conservative countries as Australia. American friends of mine fear that Civil War could occur in America in the next few years, that is how polarized American society is currently.

    You might think that to be important and Albo may achieve it.

    However, for me, the electorate isn’t looking for a morally compelling ethicist to lead them and pursuing that outcome reeks of fighting to win the last election. Bound to fail because the voters will have moved on and are interested in their current agenda.

  27. Quasar @ #124 Sunday, July 28th, 2019 – 11:34 am

    I have friends who have faith in superstition….crystals, sport rituals, etc. so the word ‘faith’ covers much more than just religion.
    When religious people don’t practice what they preach, they deserve to be called out.
    Too many are hypocrites, hiding behind their bible/religion.

    and their crystals?

  28. “The media has a vested interest in promoting controversy and contention. It’s in their interests to show people, ideas and situations as being flawed. Their commentary and reporting then becomes an alternate source of power. So, we end up in this never ending news cycle of fear, uncertainty and doubt.”

    It doesn’t matter what the topic is, one thing has always been true in the media; controversy creates cash. Like all in the right wing establishment, they only really care about money.

  29. Thanks for the post William.

    Very telling how absolutely hopeless Labors selling of their manifesto was. Shorten and Bowen should be on the backbench.

  31. The corollary to BB’s thesis is this:

    1. Politicians (aka government) are bad or incompetent or lazy or greedy.
    2. The private sector is more efficient and effective.
    3. The politicians waste other peoples money.
    4. Therefore it is a good idea to cut spending programs.
    5. Therefore it is a good idea to cut taxes.
    6. Therefore anything that is left should be privatized.

  32. I recall a conversation I had with a senior cabinet minister some time last century.

    We were discussing some proposal or other. The point he made is that it is rare for people in government to win additional votes. Their main objective is not to lose votes whenever they introduce a change.

    What GG is basically saying is that this principle is as true for the opposition as it is for government.
    Hence, why spend all your time slagging religious people when (a) it is not going to change who or what they believe and (b) the ONLY outcome you are likely to achieve is to shift your vote away from the substance of what you want to achieve.

    AKA a/c GG, for the Left to slag religious people is generally a free kick to the Right.

    AKA a/c GG for the Left to slag religious people is self-indulgent and self-defeating wankery.

    Ergo. Attack Morrison for what he does when he does something that is broadly unpopular. Plus, set up a feasible and generally more attractive alternative.

  33. It is good to see that Rex is back to attack the Coalition for, in the past two years, spending $200 million of taxpayers money to tell lies to taxpayers about the Coalition!
    Good on you Rex. The Greens are giving absolutely no quarter when it comes to sticking it to Morrison and the Coalition.

  35. Tristo @ #116 Sunday, July 28th, 2019 – 11:10 am

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jul/27/anthony-albanese-on-the-progressive-backlash-people-are-looking-for-easy-answers#comment-131439910

    I believe that Anthony Albanese is the type of person who can heal Australia’s soul.

    Much like Morrison and his team of extremists, if Albanese allows the likes of Fitzgibbon to promulgate his anti-environment agenda then he’s not a genuine political leader.

  40. ‘Rex Douglas says:
    Sunday, July 28, 2019 at 12:05 pm

    Boerwar @ #136 Sunday, July 28th, 2019 – 12:04 pm

    Go Rex!
    You got it. ‘Morrison and his team of extremists’.
    Way to go!

    There you go being bemused again.’

    The other excellent thing about the Greens is the way they encourage other Lefties against the common enemy. After all, it is Morrison who is stoking up hatred against LGBTQI folk! He is the one we need to target!
    On the matter of encouraging friends and focusing on the common enemy, Rex leads from the front.
    Well done!

  41. ‘Rex Douglas says:
    Sunday, July 28, 2019 at 12:07 pm

    Boerwar

    Are you going to badger, abuse and stalk certain posters like bemused used to do ..?’

    I say nice things about the Greens for attacking Morrison and they get upset about it.
    Comrade Rex, Morrison is the enemy and when you attack him and the Coalition with all your might, you will continue to receive my plaudits and my congratulations.

  42. BW,

    More or less.

    However, constantly abusing and ridiculing people for their religious beliefs and practices leads them to mostly smile sweetly and vote for your opponent.

    Labor went to the election with big plans. They peeved the potential losers who used the media to build a vision of proposed class warfare and radical change under Labor. People may be stressed and worried about jobs and their kids future. But, 28 years of growth underpinned a feeling that the solution proffered by labor was far too extreme for the times.

    Albo’s going to lie in the long grass and wait for the political pendulum to swing back.

    The keys to electoral power are in the centre.

    A potential crash in the economy may be the catalyst for a turn to Albo and Labor. But, they don’t need to be alienating anyone in the build up.

  43. Mundo:
    Then a snappy, clear potted history..including of the course the Liberal country party opposition to it and High Court challenge……ending with Imagine Australia without the PBS?

    A certain vote winner!
    Reminding the electorate of a 70 year old conflict less than 5% have ever heard of

  44. Bellwether @ #139 Sunday, July 28th, 2019 – 12:08 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #104 Sunday, July 28th, 2019 – 10:49 am

    Here’s something to upset the anti-religionists.

    https://t.co/FYTJE0ogVC

    That outfit, McCrindle Research, was outed as unprofessional in 2011, maybe they’ve cleaned up their act. I suspect the survey respondents were questioned as they left Sunday church.

    Well it was on Sky News so it has to be correct, doesn’t it?

    Of course, your aged no evidence slag and unsubstantiated assertions about their methodology does reek of an unethical someone desperate to keep the flames of bigotry burning.

  45. Rick Wilson‏Verified account @TheRickWilson

    Uh oh. Grandpa Ranty is into the cooking sherry again.

    Donald J. Trump‏Verified account @realDonaldTrump 3:15 PM – 27 Jul 2019

    NO COLLUSION, NO OBSTRUCTION, TOTAL EXONERATION. DEMOCRAT WITCH HUNT!

  46. “In God we Trust”
    It’s a long time since I have been in an Australian state school but do they still prominently display a photo of a certain religious leader?

  47. Boerwar @ #141 Sunday, July 28th, 2019 – 12:10 pm

    ‘Rex Douglas says:
    Sunday, July 28, 2019 at 12:07 pm

    Boerwar

    Are you going to badger, abuse and stalk certain posters like bemused used to do ..?’

    I say nice things about the Greens for attacking Morrison and they get upset about it.
    Comrade Rex, Morrison is the enemy and when you attack him and the Coalition with all your might, you will continue to receive my plaudits and my congratulations.

    Yeah riiiight…

    The day Labor stop voting for the anti-social LibNat agenda and start standing up strongly for decent social and economic policy is the day I’ll shut up about Labor.

    In the mean time, how can you or any Labor partisan support their support of the LibNats legislative agenda ??

  49. PhoenixRed

    This comment from Rick Wikson was telling……..

    Rick Wilson
    @TheRickWilson
    ·
    1h
    Depends where he’s incarcerated
    Quote Tweet

    Lisa Brite
    @LisaBrite
    · 2h
    Replying to @TheRickWilson
    These Twitter hijinks shall never end, even after Trump is out of office. We might as well accept this.

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