The fortnightly Essential Research release is the second since the election to encompass the monthly leadership ratings. These offer positive signs for Anthony Albanese, who is up four from his debut on approval to 39% and down one on disapproval to 24%, while Scott Morrison is slightly improved in net terms, with approval steady on 48% and disapproval down two to 34%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is effectively unchanged, shifting from 43-25 to 44-26. The poll also features a series of questions on the ban on tourists climbing Uluru, which 44% support and 30% oppose, and 69% professing awareness of the issue.
Of particular interest in this release is the revelation that Essential is inquiring about respondents’ income, which appears to be a new development. The only detail provided in the polling results is that Morrison has 59% approval among higher income earners, but the appendices go to the trouble of telling us that Essential has set three income cohorts for its surveys: low (below $52,000), high (above $104,000) and medium (in between).
I suspect this means Essential’s response to the pollster failure will be to start using income to weight its results. This is a departure from the Australian industry norm of weighting only by geography, gender and age, and would also seem to be a bit unusual internationally. An American pollster noted last year the practice had fallen out of favour there due to the high non-response rate to questions on personal income. The preference is to instead weight to other factors which themselves correlate with income, notably education and, particularly in Britain, social class.
The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1091. In the Guardian report accompanying the poll, the elephant in the room was addressed thus:
There has been controversy post-election about the reliability of opinion polling because none of the major surveys – Newspoll, Ipsos, Galaxy or Essential – correctly predicted a Coalition win on 18 May, projecting Labor in front on a two-party preferred vote of 51-49 and 52-48. The lack of precision in the polling has prompted public reflection at Essential, as has been flagged by its executive director, Peter Lewis. Guardian Australia is not currently publishing measurements of primary votes or a two-party preferred calculation, but is continuing to publish survey results of responses to questions about the leaders and policy issues.
Also in The Guardian today are results from a separate Essential Research poll, this one for Digital Rights Watch concerning recent police raids on journalists. In response to a question noting raids on “the offices and homes of News Corp and ABC journalists who reported on national security issues”, 40% said they were very concerned, 34% slightly concerned and 26% not concerned. Similar results were produced on questions relating to metadata and police powers to break into online communications systems. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1089.
Dutton is a contemporary version of the QPS in the pre-Fitzgerald era. He’s the type of person who would’ve used the white pages to verbalise suspects. He has learned nothing from the corruption of those days. That he was within a few votes of leading this country is very scary. That said, Morrison’s no better – just appears a little more benign.
That’s exactly what the LNP are hoping for so that they can accuse Labor of being “soft on security” etc.
Labor can’t win that battle, but they can give the LNP (more than) enough rope to hang themselves when a security incident occurs. (“We gave you all these powers; why didn’t you stop it?”)
No doubt when Labor gets back in, the LNP will say it’s Very Important(TM) to remove these excessive powers…
Well I think the 7pm ABC News did a pretty good job of surfacing all the wacky policy ideas bubbling away on the coalition back bench
And then 7:30 did a pretty good expose on Bob Brown’s wind farm hypocrisy. Now they’re tackling the coalition trying to turn the public service into lap dogs.
Maybe there’s hope for them yet!
If I were a Labor strategist I’d start by taking Dutton apart. KK’s doing a reasonable job but has yet to hit the mark. At this early point in the political cycle, Labor should be experimenting, explaining why this young upstart (Dutton) is anathema to democracy. What he’s endeavouring to do is to subvert judicial process, exampled by disallowing Australian citizens from returning home. If they’ve done wrong, they should face the full face of the law, not via ministerial whim. Dutton’s powers must be reined in.
Communities ‘neglected or ignored for decades’ as justice unit tackles Indigenous incarceration
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-07-25/aboriginal-justice-agreement-first-for-northern-territory/11297084
“Ms Liddle said the “despair” she felt came from seeing how Indigenous communities had not been given a say over policies that affected them.
“What we saw was heartbreaking — entire communities whose voices had been neglected or ignored for decades,” she said.
“Some people told us that they had never been asked their views on the impacts of significant policy decisions by governments.”
:::
But a key legal group said it doubts the Northern Territory Government will be able to deliver on its part of the agreement or its commitment to reduce the Territory’s high Indigenous incarceration rate.
The organisation representing criminal lawyers in the Northern Territory said it was concerned the Government was all talk and no action on justice reforms.
::::
“How can you on one hand say we want to advance the plight of our Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people by drafting this agreement and at the same time say we are not even prepared to put safe guards in place in youth justice legislation to give effect to recommendations of a royal commission?”
:::
The Northern Territory has the second highest rate of Indigenous incarceration in the country; around 90 per cent of people in prison in the Top End are Indigenous.
::::
The Northern Territory Government would not confirm if the Aboriginal Justice Agreement would be finalised before next year’s Northern Territory election.”
Mavis @7:22.
“That [Dutton] was within a few votes of leading this country is very scary. “
The danger hasn’t passed. Dutton still has his leadership baton / truncheon in his knapsack, which he’ll take out at the first opportunity.
Although I am not convinced that Dutton would be worse. His incompetence might be his saving grace.
Read these numbers. Unless the US Economy really tanks in the next 12-15 months Trump will win the Presidential Election hugely:
https://www.factcheck.org/2019/04/trumps-numbers-april-2019-update/
Jobs still growing, more importantly wages are surging. The democrats are just shuffling the deck chairs.
Steve777:
Nothing surer that Dutton’s after the top gig, evidenced by him speaking outside of his portfolio, still being pissed off that he forgot his abacus during the spill. Dutton’s a quintessential – but very dangerous – example of the Peter Principle – look at how he failed miserably, for instance, in the health portfolio.
Andrew_Earlwood:
The polity’s far more than a set of somewhat arbitrary economic indicia. I’m bookmarking your postulation.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #307 Thursday, July 25th, 2019 – 8:22 pm
A_E,
You might be interested in this Nate Cohn article about Trump’s path to victory in 2020:
Trump’s Electoral College Edge Could Grow in 2020, Rewarding Polarizing Campaign
Re-election looks plausible even with a bigger loss in the national popular vote.
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/19/upshot/trump-electoral-college-edge-.html?em_pos=small&ref=headline&nl_art=0&te=1&nl=upshot&emc=edit_up_20190722?campaign_id=29&instance_id=11081&segment_id=15440&user_id=a91bf1b405424bbaec95cc9b66658064®i_id=70388838emc=edit_up_20190722
Knock yourself out Mavis, but the folk who decide elections in America – the working and middle class in the rust belt will be hugely impressed. They are benefiting, even if trump had nothing much to do with it. No reason to change horses you see. The hip pocket is everything
Interesting selections for the Wallabies in upcoming game vs a strong Argentina in Brisbane. Christian Lealiifano is in – 3 years after being diagnosed with Leukaemia. And James OConner returns. Two very different comebacks.
Good selections. I wouldnt say I am excited. But I probs will tune in.
[‘Knock yourself out…’]
As I said, Andrew, I’ve bookmarked your prediction. I have confidence that the US will come to its senses.
Andrew_Earlwood says:
Thursday, July 25, 2019 at 8:22 pm
Read these numbers. Unless the US Economy really tanks in the next 12-15 months Trump will win the Presidential Election hugely:
https://www.factcheck.org/2019/04/trumps-numbers-april-2019-update/
Jobs still growing, more importantly wages are surging. The democrats are just shuffling the deck chairs.
————————————-
I agree its the economy stupid that will determine who wins the WH next year. Trump needs a trade deal but he has already tried ramping up anti-Chinese talk to which the markets reacted badly .
Having just observed Boris’s first speech as PM in the Commons I can inform the ALP that the UK Conservatives have a far greater progressive agenda than them.
Simon Katich:
Looking forward to James O’Connor return to the fold, also the weekend game between the All Blacks and the Springboks.
The Cheika area of Australian rugby cannot come to an end soon enough.
He value minuses everything
Based on the policies the ALP took to the last election? Or the policies they will take to the next election (not yet announced)? Or based on some other metric you just plucked from the sub-cockle region of your colon?
Dammit Rex. The thing that most annoys me about you atm is that you have turned me into a defender of the ALP. HOnestly, I have better things to post about. Like asking if it is poor form to objectify current and past Masterchef contestants.
shellbell. Billie
Simon Katich @ #318 Thursday, July 25th, 2019 – 9:02 pm
For starters, based on the legislation the ALP have voted FOR in this parliament so far and their support of more environmental pollution.
Simon Katich @ #319 Thursday, July 25th, 2019 – 9:05 pm
The ALP is almost as indefensible as the LibNat Govt.
SNP’s Ian Blackford unleashing a withering attack on team Boris of the like I haven’t seen since Keating on Hewson.
We need such passion back in our HoR.
The theory does not seem to hold in Australia. The Australian economy was going well in 2012. Wage growth flatlined leading up to the last election. And Keating won with unemployment in the ionosphere.
After the World Cup there should be a purge of the Australian men’s rugby t with a total inclusion of the under twenties+ the coach
It is interesting that at the same time Michael Daley was channeling Pauline Hanson in Katoomba, Sussex St was duchessing the big end of Chinatown.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/labor-had-scheme-to-evade-electoral-funding-laws-20190724-p52age.html
The maximum penalty for the offense is 10 years. Obeid famously said that there was less than 1% chance of him being convicted. Do his heirs think the same?
“Wage growth flatlined leading up to the last election. And Keating won with unemployment in the ionosphere.”
In 1993 the punters were scared off by a great big new tax on everything. Screw the unemployed.
Labor can’t win by appealing to the nation’s better Angels.
I am pessimistic. I’ll leave it at that.
My impression is that the problem with the opinion polls at this federal election wasn’t so much the primary votes but the calculation of the 2PP. So, I suggest to the pollsters to return to measuring primary vote and simply refrain from estimating the 2PP. The flow of preferences is becoming quite volatile and unpredictable.
I would start by banning all Great Public Schools alumni from playing or coaching for Australia at any level. Real long term vision stuff. Will hurt for a decade or two. or three.
Yes, Labor should have won 2012 if it hadn’t spent 3 years fighting against a sociopath… and I don’t mean Tony Abbott
Gillibrand puts a figure on it. $10T to combat climate change. $3T of that from fed government.
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/07/25/gillibrand-2020-election-climate-change-1615073
Does Rugby Union still exist in Australia?
(Of course the answer from BandannaHead is that sure ARU has made mistakes with. Super Rugby but sometimes nearly 5000 people watch a game in Shute Shield)
“Having just observed Boris’s first speech as PM in the Commons I can inform the ALP that the UK Conservatives have a far greater progressive agenda than them.”…
Rex, BoJo was elected leader of the Conservatives to get the Brexiteers votes back from Farage’s Brexit party… Now, do tell us how is BoJo going to do that with a “progressive” agenda? The EU is the progressive way forward, recoiling into old-fashioned Nationalism is the Conservative way backwards…
SK
The best rugby being played at the moment is by the private school boys, regrettably.
We need Mr Megabucks who just knock off all the rugby league stars.
And anyone associated with the Randwick rugby club in the 1980s should fuck off completely unless their name is Ella.
“Yes, Labor should have won 2012 if it hadn’t spent 3 years fighting against a sociopath… and I don’t mean Tony Abbott”…
You obviously mean Murdoch, do you?…. The Rudd-Gillard saga would have been nothing if it wasn’t for the intervention of NewsCorpse…. Just look at the far worse Abbott-Turnbull-Dutton-ScuMo saga that led to victory after victory simply because NewsCorpse is fully behind the Coalition….
The Rudd-Gillard saga would have been nothing if it wasn’t for the intervention of NewsCorpse
Seriously?
My overwhelming memory is Albo briefing the press immediately after a cabinet meeting and some newscorp journalists phones ring. Albo stops the briefing and says wtte “tell the bastard to stop leaking cabinet”.I guess “Newscorpse” should have ignored the prick
The primary vote figures for the ALP in polling were quite wrong, overestimating by 3-4% afaicr. The primaries for the coalition were a bit undercooked in polling but not too bad, the Greens came in about where they were polling. The coalition, of course, got a lot of PHON/UAP/Anning prefs back.
Another view of Johnson’s speech
Owen Jones: His championing of our decadent rich could be his downfall
Owen Jones
I remember better structured, more coherent speeches at 2am in Stockport’s Heaven and Hell nightclub. Johnson is certainly a man intoxicated by personal ambition, but his first address as prime minister was more stream of consciousness than a compelling new vision for Britain. Underlining his embrace of rightwing populism, those who disagreed with his Brexit policy – such as it is – were dismissed as “people who bet against Britain”. In the era of headlines such as “Enemies of the People” and “Saboteurs”, we are already familiar with government critics demonised as hostile to their own country.
As boos and jeers rained down upon him he zigzagged from more police numbers to the NHS to animal welfare. But May began her doomed occupancy of No 10 with a more ambitious domestic programme, all of it doomed, and Johnson’s majority is even thinner. He hopes to lance the Brexit party boil: that is, after all, why Tory MPs who privately think he is profoundly unfit to be prime minister put him there.”
The problem with blaming the media is that it excuses the actions of those doing the leaking, we know ALP cabinet members were talking to the media, just as current Lib/Nat cabinet members talk to the media and they being political journalists simply repeat what they hear. I well remember the denial here when stories first appeared hinting at problems with the Rudd government yet we now know most, if not all of it was fully or partly true.
C@tmomma @ #295 Thursday, July 25th, 2019 – 6:58 pm
I thought that was for revocation of citizenship at the minister’s pleasure?
If the same caveat applies to TEO’s then aren’t they mostly worthless? How many dual Australian-[something-else] nationals are there fighting with terrorists in the Middle East? How many of those would Dutton hit with a TEO when he can just declare them ‘not Australian anymore’ and be done with them forever?
Andrew_Earlwood @ #306 Thursday, July 25th, 2019 – 8:22 pm
CPI is up 4.3%. Wages are only up 2.6%. In real terms, people are becoming poorer. 1.7% poorer.
Leaking and internal divisions 2010-13 were largely the mere icing on the cake of the Great Labor clusterfuck. After the original sin of June 2010, and the omnishambles of The Real Julia, the death nail was the March 2011 Carbon tax (not a tax) deal with the Greens. 1,500,000 votes left the combined forces of Labor and the Greens overnight. They never came back before 2013. Everything else is minutiae.
The media treatment was extremely asymmetric. This was not an accident. The best kind of propaganda is propaganda the recipients aren’t even smart enough to workout is propaganda. So I’m scoring one win to Murdoch and Stokes.
says it all…
Wth happened to Newspoll!?!
A.R
where is CPI that high because the U.S Federal Reserve’s interest rate target is only 2% and its CPI is below that.
Well except when they don’t.
“CPI is up 4.3%. Wages are only up 2.6%. In real terms, people are becoming poorer. 1.7% poorer.”
Sorry ar:
the 2.6% increase is in real terms (ie. adjusted for inflation). This is detail from the report:
“Wages and Inflation
The upward trend in real wages continued under Trump, and inflation remained in check.
CPI —The Consumer Price Index rose 4.3 percent during Trump’s first 26 months, continuing a long period of historically low inflation.
In the most recent 12 months, ending in March, the CPI rose 1.9 percent. The CPI rose an average of 1.8 percent each year of the Obama presidency (measured as the 12-month change ending each January), and an average of 2.4 percent during each of George W. Bush’s years.
Wages — Paychecks continued to grow faster than prices.
The average weekly earnings of all private-sector workers, in “real” (inflation-adjusted) terms, rose 2.6 percent during Trump’s first 26 months (ending in March) after going up 3.9 percent during the previous four years.
Those figures are for all private-sector workers, including managers and supervisors.
For rank-and-file production and nonsupervisory workers (who make up 82 percent of all private-sector workers), real weekly earnings have gone up 2.5 percent so far under Trump, after rising 4.9 percent during Obama’s last four years in office.”
WeWantPaul
Sure they don’t repeat everything as we saw with Murphy not mentioning Joyce’s affair with his staffer but they will generally report what they hear, that is why its important to know who the journalist is before assessing the merits of the story.
Joel really is pushing Coal but it seems to me that he didn’t do too badly in the regions of Hunter where people still work and often work in the mines. The swings of 25%+ occurred in the rust bucket villages around Cessnock where coal hasn’t been the predominant industry for 40 years and 3rd generation unemployment is common.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #340 Thursday, July 25th, 2019 – 10:03 pm
Fiction.
Gillard rescued the ALP from paralysis only to be savaged from within by a crazed vengeful element.
Thanks Andrew, that is how I read the economic data.