The fortnightly Essential Research release is the second since the election to encompass the monthly leadership ratings. These offer positive signs for Anthony Albanese, who is up four from his debut on approval to 39% and down one on disapproval to 24%, while Scott Morrison is slightly improved in net terms, with approval steady on 48% and disapproval down two to 34%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is effectively unchanged, shifting from 43-25 to 44-26. The poll also features a series of questions on the ban on tourists climbing Uluru, which 44% support and 30% oppose, and 69% professing awareness of the issue.
Of particular interest in this release is the revelation that Essential is inquiring about respondents’ income, which appears to be a new development. The only detail provided in the polling results is that Morrison has 59% approval among higher income earners, but the appendices go to the trouble of telling us that Essential has set three income cohorts for its surveys: low (below $52,000), high (above $104,000) and medium (in between).
I suspect this means Essential’s response to the pollster failure will be to start using income to weight its results. This is a departure from the Australian industry norm of weighting only by geography, gender and age, and would also seem to be a bit unusual internationally. An American pollster noted last year the practice had fallen out of favour there due to the high non-response rate to questions on personal income. The preference is to instead weight to other factors which themselves correlate with income, notably education and, particularly in Britain, social class.
The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1091. In the Guardian report accompanying the poll, the elephant in the room was addressed thus:
There has been controversy post-election about the reliability of opinion polling because none of the major surveys – Newspoll, Ipsos, Galaxy or Essential – correctly predicted a Coalition win on 18 May, projecting Labor in front on a two-party preferred vote of 51-49 and 52-48. The lack of precision in the polling has prompted public reflection at Essential, as has been flagged by its executive director, Peter Lewis. Guardian Australia is not currently publishing measurements of primary votes or a two-party preferred calculation, but is continuing to publish survey results of responses to questions about the leaders and policy issues.
Also in The Guardian today are results from a separate Essential Research poll, this one for Digital Rights Watch concerning recent police raids on journalists. In response to a question noting raids on “the offices and homes of News Corp and ABC journalists who reported on national security issues”, 40% said they were very concerned, 34% slightly concerned and 26% not concerned. Similar results were produced on questions relating to metadata and police powers to break into online communications systems. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1089.
But if it happens, fixing it by dropping interest rates isn’t an option.
cTar1 would be proud of you.
If only the Liberal party had similar thoughts wrt Howard.
Regarding unwanted phone calls, I bought a V-Tech landline phone which has an answerphone and so we can screen the calls. Most don’t leave a message and it is interesting that most calls are from unknown callers, often between 6-7pm.
I need a landline as the mobile drops out too often and the quality of sound is superior.
The article concludes that a Recession is more likely than another GFC. I wonder how the PM and Treasurer of ‘A job’ll fix it and not a rise in Newstart’, will cope with that?
Wow! John Howard is 79 years old. I’d say, only the good die young but Paul Keating is 75! 😆
Quasar
It was that evening avalanche of @$$#*%#!!! begging/selling calls which persuaded me to ditch the landline and go “naked” .
Wow. Look who has joined The Young Turks.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=B6XJqFNWJAE
I don’t give a Fandango 🙂
The Guardian
This is an issue which hasn’t got a lot of airplay in the parliament today, but Richard Di Natale has released a statement on this story:
In the same week UK courts declared British arms exports to Saudi Arabia to be unlawful, a large shipment of Australian-built remote weapons systems left Sydney airport.
Secret photographs, obtained by Guardian Australia, confirm the identity of the buyers – the Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates governments, whose forces are currently waging a devastating war in Yemen. Also marked are the suppliers of the equipment, which the manufacturer boasts is ‘significantly enhancing lethality’ in combat.
Di Natale:
While other nations around the world ban arms sales to Saudi Arabia, and the US Senate recently blocked sales to both the UAE and Saudi Arabia, Australia is continuing to profit off both nations’ warmongering, while remaining tight-lipped or wilfully ignorant about where our weapons are ending up.
By shipping weapons to these two regimes, we’re contributing to an unfolding catastrophe in Yemen, pouring fuel onto a conflict that has killed tens of thousands and been described by observers as the ‘world’s worst humanitarian crisis’.
This is inexcusable and callous ignorance. By permitting and profiting off these sales, Australia is tacitly allowing the UAE and Saudi regimes to continue a war that’s left 24 million people in need of help. It’s time to end our arms trade with human rights abusers, and rip up the government’s obscene plans to make Australia a global arms dealer.
adrian says:
Thursday, July 25, 2019 at 12:47 pm
I certainly do, that’s why I chose to write it that way.
Just trying to help you understand!
Boerwar @ #230 Thursday, July 25th, 2019 – 4:06 pm
It’s on! Only the full Manhattan Project response can save us from an unacceptably hostile planet now.
Oh FFS.
Switzer on RN gets in none other than Conrad Black, convicted criminal and past owner of the Torygraph, to give his opinion on Boris Johnson.
For balance, Switzer also has on a Torygraph columnist who, not surprisingly, is somewhere to the right of Fraser Anning on many issues and calls people who want action on climate change; thermomanics, leftist rentamob, nutters, anarchists, anti-capitalists, fanatics, absolutists.
Thanks ABC, but we are done.
Rex Douglas says:
Thursday, July 25, 2019 at 2:55 pm
Don’t worry Rex!
You lack the wit to understand anyway.
This push by some Coalition members for a taxpayer subsidised nuclear facility – cause ‘clean energy’ – should factor in the risks. Perhaps they could get a 2nd hand one from these Japanese reactors now ‘surplus to requirements’?
TOKYO (AP) — The operator of the nuclear plant wrecked by a 2011 earthquake and tsunami said Wednesday that it will decommission four more reactors in northeastern Japan in addition to those already being scrapped.
Tokyo Electric Power Company Holdings said a final decision on dismantling the four reactors at the Fukushima Dai-ni plant will be formally approved at a board meeting, expected later this month.
Nearby Fukushima Dai-ichi had meltdowns in three reactors and structural damage in a fourth during the disaster. All six reactors, including four that are currently being decommissioned, will be dismantled in a process that will take decades.
TEPCO President Tomoaki Kobayakawa told Fukushima Gov. Masao Uchibori that it will take about 40 years to finish decommissioning all four reactors at Fukushima Dai-ni. Kobayakawa told the governor that the company also plans to build a new facility at the Dai-ni complex to move spent fuel from cooling pools to dry casks — a safer long-term storage option recommended by experts.
The plan means all 10 of TEPCO’s reactors in Fukushima will be dismantled. Kobayakawa, however, said the additional decommissioning won’t affect the ongoing work at Fukushima Dai-ichi, which is already a challenge.
https://www.usnews.com/news/business/articles/2019-07-24/japanese-utility-likely-to-scrap-more-reactors-in-fukushima?src=usn_tw
A 100 metre asteroid missed Earth by 70,000 km this morning (Moon distance is about 380,000 km):
https://www.smh.com.au/national/earth-had-a-near-miss-with-city-killer-asteroid-this-morning-20190725-p52apn.html
Large enough to wipe out a metropolitan area if it hit.
The G
Temporary exclusion orders have passed – and the Senate has adjourned.
There’s your problem.
All of my landline calls go to the answering machine after two rings.
If the call is important, they’ll leave a message. They almost never do.
I thought that getting free caller ID with NBN would be a good thing, but now I have to keep clearing (often bogus) phone numbers from the phone’s call log…
The Coalition from time to time raise nucear power as a wedge, not through any intention of actually doing anything. Anyway, it doesn’t use coal, so I don’t see it happening.
Is the theory that we nuke the fuckers if they get too close?
Good to see that Di Natale is taking it up to Morrison and the Coalition on the arms sales!
So today the Greens and Labor jointly got a reference to a Senate Commitee agreed to 35-31.
Posting this just in case the Greens Newstart bandwagoners missed it (apologies for the formatting)
Senator Siewert and Dodson 25 July 2019
Amendment to Business of the Senate Notice of Motion No 1.
As listed on page 3of today’s Notice Paper in the name of Senator Siewert
To move—That the following matter be referred to the Community Affairs References Committee for inquiry and report by 27 March 2020:
The adequacy of Australia’s income support Newstart and related payments and alternative mechanisms to determine the level of income support payments in Australia, with specific reference to:
(a) consideration of what constitutes an acceptable standard of living in Australia, including the cost of safe and secure housing;
(b) the labour market, unemployment and under-employment in Australia, including the structural causes of long term unemployment and long term reliance on Newstart;
(c) the changing nature of work and insecure work in Australia;
(d) the appropriateness of current arrangements for supporting those experiencing insecure employment, inconsistent employment and
precarious hours in the workforce;
(e) the current approach to setting income support payments in Australia;
(f) the impact of the current approach to setting income support payments on
the aged older unemployed workers, families, single parents, people with disability, jobseekers, students, First Nations peoples, people from culturally and linguistically diverse backgrounds, people living in regional and remote areas, and any others affected by the process;
(g) the impact of geography, age and other characteristics on the number of people receiving payments, long term unemployment and poverty;
(g)(h) the adequacy of income support payments in Australia and whether they allow people to maintain an acceptable standard of living in line with community expectations and support fulfil job search activities (where relevant) and secure employment and training;
(i) the economic cost of long-term unemployment, underemployment, poverty, inequality and inadequate income support payments;
(j) the economic benefits – including job creation, locally and nationally – of increasing and improving income support payments and supports, and decreasing poverty and inequality;
(h) the impact on local and domestic economies of inadequate income support payments and any potential increases to income support payments;
(i)(k) the relationship between income support payment levels, minimum wages and wage stagnation in Australia and other comparable economies;
(l) theinteractionswithotherpaymentsandservices,includingthelossof any increased payments through higher rents and costs;
(m) the cost and fiscal sustainability of any changes;
(n) the relative merits of alternative investments in health, education,
housing and other programs to improve outcomes;
(j)(o) other countries’ approaches to setting income support payments, minimum
wages and awards;
(k)(p) other bodies that set payments, minimum wages and awards in Australia;
(l)(q) the role of independent and expert decision–making in setting payments; and
(m)(r) any other related matters.
“Another financial crisis is not as likely now.”
Who knows? It will happen some time and catch nearly everyone by surprise, like it always does.
I see that someone has tried to the bidness on the biggest loose end in the US: Epstein.
sprocket
It’s good to see Labor finally jumping on the Newstart bandwagon.
I am guessing motions relating to Newstart are now no longer a Greens’ stunt.
Has Labor had anything to say about arms sales?
‘Pegasus says:
Thursday, July 25, 2019 at 5:35 pm
Good to see that Di Natale is taking it up to Morrison and the Coalition on the arms sales!
Has Labor had anything to say about arms sales?’
Good on you Peg! Condemning Morrison for these arm sales is an excellent thing for you to do!
Adani arrests in Queensland
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/jul/25/french-journalists-bail-conditions-after-adani-arrest-labelled-abuse-of-police-power
Shades of Joh Bjelke Petersen’s regime, perhaps.
Oh dearie me.
Ray a bully?
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-07-25/ray-hadley-taken-to-court-over-abuse-allegations/11346534
Peg, a reference to a Senate Commitee is not a stunt. There will be hearings conduct, evidence assessed, reports written etc
A feel good motion is a stunt, with no consequence – other than Greens social media wankfest
Nope – that just adds radiation and electromagnetic pulse damage to the mix.
You could try putting a paper bag over your head.
Upcoming near-Earth objects (NEOs) – with a bonus fireball exploding over Canada:
http://www.spaceweather.com/
Sentry: Earth Impact Monitoring – Impact Risk Data:
https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/sentry/
Look for a Torino Scale value greater than zero.
sprocket
It’s good to see Labor finally coming on board with the Greens and community organisations who have done all the heavy lifting over the years to keep the Newstart issue in the public consciousness.
Personally, I admire di Natale’s ability to stay on message and build momentum for key greens policies.
“Is the theory that we nuke the fuckers if they get too close?”
I don’t think there’s any plan, just theories. We could use nuclear weapons to nudge their orbits so that they miss Earth, or crash a mass into them to achieve the same effect, or even paint one side white so that the pressure of sunlight / solar wind can give a small, continuous push. All these would take time, it would require at least several years’ notice.
Or we could send Bruce Willis up there to sort it out.
From Victorian Greens e-bulletin
“Another sitting week in Federal Parliament has meant another raft of attacks from the government on the poorest in our society. However, yesterday’s vote on Senator Siewert’s motion to raise the rate of Newstart – which Labor finally voted for after years of excuses – shows yet again how relentless campaigning shifts public debate and votes in Parliament. “
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-07-25/police-drop-trespass-charges-against-french-reporter-and-crew/11347524
The Queensland Police Service (QPS) has dropped trespass charges against a prominent French journalist and his film crew who were arrested while filming anti-Adani protesters earlier this week.
The G
Kristina Keneally has seemingly beat the government in the temporary exclusion order press release race (where she explains why Labor supported a bill it has a concerns about, because this is becoming something of a habit):
“Australia will finally have a mechanism to appropriately control the return of foreign fighters into the country following the passage of the Temporary Exclusion Order (TEO) legislation through the parliament this afternoon.
This is not a victory for Peter Dutton who, as home affairs minister, could have had this legislation in place four years ago – just as the United Kingdom did in 2015.
Instead, Minister Dutton left Australia unprotected for four years, allowing, as we learned this week, 40 so-called ‘jihadis’ to come back into Australia unmanaged.
Labor has always supported the intent of TEOs – which is why we have taken every step to ensure the scheme works, keeps Australians safe, and is constitutional.
The reality is, Australians who have gone overseas to join the so-called ‘caliphate’ do pose a risk to the safety and security of our country. Their return, including those returning to face criminal charges, must be controlled appropriately.
Given this risk, Labor was not prepared to leave Australia without a scheme to control their return, like Mr Dutton has done for the past four years.
Labor moved amendments in both the House and the Senate to give full effect to the bipartisan recommendations of the Parliamentary Joint Committee on Intelligence and Security (PJCIS).
These recommendations were handed by the chair of the PJCIS, Liberal MP Andrew Hastie, to Peter Dutton himself and signed off on by all members of the committee – including Liberal members Eric Abetz, Amanda Stoker, David Fawcett, Julian Leeser and Jason Wood.
Regrettably, the Liberal MPs and senators voted against their own recommendations – marking the first time since 2013 that the government has rejected outright recommendations from the bipartisan PJCIS.
Instead of working to improve legislation, the home affairs minister and the government have taken the dangerous step of fracturing the bipartisan approach to Australia’s national security and the compact of the PJCIS.
Minister Dutton also refused to release the government’s legal advice to put to rest concerns about the constitutionality of the legislation.
When it comes to keeping Australia safe from countering violent extremism and terrorism we should expect and demand more than a home affairs minister and government that plays political games such as these.”
Excluding Australians from Australia is crap. We’ve not done it before, why is it urgent now? It sets a dangerous precedent. If anyone returning to Australia has committed a crime in Australian law, arrest them when they come back and put them on trial. Surely we’ve had more than enough
wedging“security” legisation passed since 9/11, mostly rammed through with little review or discussion. In any case ISIS collapsed last year, there’s been plenty of time to get this done. If not, sit Parliament for another week or two to allow proper consideration and get it right.This is the pattern from now on. Parliament sits as little as possible. Legislation is rammed through with minimal review and debate. The Government dares Labor to oppose or the Noise Machine is cranked up to 11.
If there actually is a risk from which we need protecting, the Government is holding national security hostage to get their wedge. Shouldn’t someone be saying that?
Anyway, as I said, the flying wedges will just keep on coming, getting ever more outrageous. Labor will eventually have to push back.
The real enemy is liberals greens need to remember that:
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6292990/coalition-to-block-inquiry-into-minister/?cs=14231
Steve777 @ #283 Thursday, July 25th, 2019 – 5:54 pm
I feel like nudging it with a nuke is easier said than done. The vacuum of space isn’t going to transmit force from a nuclear detonation the way an atmosphere will; you’d have to get pretty much a direct hit with the nuke in order to put enough energy into the target to do any good.
Because The Greens would like foreign fighters for terrorist entities to have an easy path back to Australia!?!
Re AR @6:29 (Asteroids)
You are right there. You would have to actually deliver the device to the surface of the asteroid, possibly years in advance and well away from Earth.
Dandy Murray:
[‘Personally, I admire di Natale’s ability to stay on message and build momentum for key greens policies.’]
Just what momentum would that be? Di Natale’s a flagrant opportunist, partly responsible for sustaining the Tories’ reign. I accordingly think that “briefly” might be right.
Mavis,
*Deadpans*
C@tmomma @ #290 Thursday, July 25th, 2019 – 6:46 pm
Because it shouldn’t be possible for an Australian citizen to be denied entry into Australia on a minister’s whim.
They should be allowed entry and, if they’ve committed crimes abroad, arrested at their point of entry and prosecuted for their crimes. In Australia, and by Australian courts. We can’t create stateless (or de-facto stateless) people, and our criminals, terrorists, and miscreants aren’t the rest of the world’s responsibility to deal with.
Anyhow, it will be interesting to see what happens if a foreign nation apprehends one of these people and decides to deport them to Australia given that they hold Australian citizenship and then Dutton goes “nope, don’t send them here”. Has ‘international diplomatic incident’ written all over it. 🙂
a r,
It applies to Dual Citizens. So they can’t be rendered Stateless.
They’re all opportunists, some more flagrant than others. It’s on the job description for “politician”.
a r:
[‘Because it shouldn’t be possible for an Australian citizen to be denied entry into Australia on a minister’s whim.’]
Precisely, particularly when the minister responsible has scant regard for the rule of law, who has never discarded his uniform. This man, make no mistake about it, enjoys his arbitrary powers; to increase them serves to encourage him, his ilk.
C@tmomma @ #56 Thursday, July 25th, 2019 – 8:59 am
Lib lite make themselves such an easy target.
Lib lite are A grade self-destructors.
So, Lib lite vote in favour of more Dutton power.
They’re so helpful, aren’t they…