Essential Research leadership polling

The second set of leadership ratings since the election is featured in the latest release from Essential Research, which may also offer a hint of how it plans to respond to the great pollster failure.

The fortnightly Essential Research release is the second since the election to encompass the monthly leadership ratings. These offer positive signs for Anthony Albanese, who is up four from his debut on approval to 39% and down one on disapproval to 24%, while Scott Morrison is slightly improved in net terms, with approval steady on 48% and disapproval down two to 34%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is effectively unchanged, shifting from 43-25 to 44-26. The poll also features a series of questions on the ban on tourists climbing Uluru, which 44% support and 30% oppose, and 69% professing awareness of the issue.

Of particular interest in this release is the revelation that Essential is inquiring about respondents’ income, which appears to be a new development. The only detail provided in the polling results is that Morrison has 59% approval among higher income earners, but the appendices go to the trouble of telling us that Essential has set three income cohorts for its surveys: low (below $52,000), high (above $104,000) and medium (in between).

I suspect this means Essential’s response to the pollster failure will be to start using income to weight its results. This is a departure from the Australian industry norm of weighting only by geography, gender and age, and would also seem to be a bit unusual internationally. An American pollster noted last year the practice had fallen out of favour there due to the high non-response rate to questions on personal income. The preference is to instead weight to other factors which themselves correlate with income, notably education and, particularly in Britain, social class.

The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1091. In the Guardian report accompanying the poll, the elephant in the room was addressed thus:

There has been controversy post-election about the reliability of opinion polling because none of the major surveys – Newspoll, Ipsos, Galaxy or Essential – correctly predicted a Coalition win on 18 May, projecting Labor in front on a two-party preferred vote of 51-49 and 52-48. The lack of precision in the polling has prompted public reflection at Essential, as has been flagged by its executive director, Peter Lewis. Guardian Australia is not currently publishing measurements of primary votes or a two-party preferred calculation, but is continuing to publish survey results of responses to questions about the leaders and policy issues.

Also in The Guardian today are results from a separate Essential Research poll, this one for Digital Rights Watch concerning recent police raids on journalists. In response to a question noting raids on “the offices and homes of News Corp and ABC journalists who reported on national security issues”, 40% said they were very concerned, 34% slightly concerned and 26% not concerned. Similar results were produced on questions relating to metadata and police powers to break into online communications systems. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1089.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

819 comments on “Essential Research leadership polling”

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  1. Andy
    The problem with that is it goes from being income earned from investment to being a welfare payment which these people would most likely reject as many of them see franking credits as a part of the tax system instead of being part of the welfare system.

  2. Mex,

    First, and not wanting to sound like Chris Bowen, but I’m not sure what proportion of people earning over $50k in franking credit rebates, on top of $100k in dividends and other passive income streams, were considering voting Labor anyway. Second, this policy isn’t for them, it’s for everyone else.

  3. You have to hand it to Amy Remeikis!
    “Time for the final divide.

    The parties swap sides of the chamber.

    Scott Morrison is yawning (I get it) and chatting to Darren Chester and Josh Frydenberg.

    Anthony Albanese is talking to Mark Butler, Jim Chalmers and Matt Keogh.

    No one is talking to Michael McCormack.”

    She just ADORES McCormack!

  4. lizzie @ #199 Thursday, July 25th, 2019 – 3:17 pm

    Ben Oquist
    @BenOquist
    ·
    2m
    If Tasmania adopted a similar auction regime to Norway for fish farm licensing it could return between $707 million to $2 billion to the state with 80% of the benefits flowing locally. New @TheAusInstitute
    report

    Not a great story to have out there today when 2 people have just died from Listeria poisoning as a result of eating Tasmanian Salmon.

  5. Does anyone have any info on this “scam”?

    I was rung this afternoon by what sounded like a recorded voice, telling me that my broadband would be cut off within 24 hours. I checked and of course it’s not.

    What could be the point of this nonsense?

  6. Lizzie
    Those scams aim to get hold of your personal details, or access to any passwords, its best to hang up and call your provider if you are concerned.

  7. C@t

    I have been a regular consumer of Tasmanian smoked salmon for several years, but after this listeria ‘scare’, and being over 70 and with poor health, I feel I must stop eating it. Shame, but there you are.

  8. lizzie @ #206 Thursday, July 25th, 2019 – 3:25 pm

    Does anyone have any info on this “scam”?

    I was rung this afternoon by what sounded like a recorded voice, telling me that my broadband would be cut off within 24 hours. I checked and of course it’s not.

    What could be the point of this nonsense?

    Lizzie,
    You may get another call from someone offering to ‘fix’ it. For a price.

  9. Mexican

    Been there, done that. It wasn’t the same as previous attempts.

    Interesting that all these calls seem to occur after 2 pm our time.

  10. lizzie,
    I wonder if the Listeria infection is caused by not cleaning the massive pens properly that they keep the fish in? I do remember an investigative report once which exposed how dirty they were.

  11. Everyone’s (?) favourite former mayor of Ipswich – Paul Pisasale – sentenced to 2 years’ imprisonment, suspended after serving 1 year, on extortion charge.

  12. S.Katich
    “I am alone in wishing Julia Gillard would re-enter politics?”

    Yes, I’m afraid you are. I adore Julia, and she deserves better than being a politician (again).

  13. C@t

    Months ago I read something the same. A rival firm complained that Tassal’s expansion was detrimental to the Bay, partly because of waste products. I don’t think their objections were successful.

  14. Andy Murray @ #194 Thursday, July 25th, 2019 – 3:02 pm

    It is telling that you didn’t try to explain the policy Labor took to the election.

    I never said I’d do that. Good politics rarely requires providing accurate/in-depth explanations of specific things. 🙂

    And wasn’t Labor’s policy to grandfather the changes in some cases? I think that’s strictly worse than just abolishing franking credits altogether.

    How about putting it this way: You can still claim up to $50k in franking credit rebates from the Commonwealth Government at tax time.

    That seems hugely generous and still has “franking credit” in it. I’d go for: The Commonwealth Government will not assess any tax on your first $10k in income* earned through dividends, interest, or self-employment work.

    * with some fine print in a policy document somewhere to account for the nuance around the tax-free threshold and people who don’t have enough ‘other’ income to push themselves above that amount; the $10k exemption is additional to that threshold, not a replacement for it. So if your only income is through dividends, interest, and/or self-employment work your first $28,200 is tax free (retirees will love it!).

  15. Yes, I’m afraid you are. I adore Julia, and she deserves better than being a politician (again).

    She does. She earned the right to choose a more enjoyable career.
    I reckon the electorate is ready for V2.0.
    V2022.o?

    So deflated by the politicians of today.

  16. I have a lot of respect for Gillard, but her time in politics is over. Labor needs to renew, not dredge up memories of the RGR years in the minds of the public.

  17. ar
    It’s a futile exercise. The LNP will still call it a retirement tax. Enabling the whole death tax again.

    It’s the LNP we are talking about.

  18. lizzie

    Don’t understand the point of it, but sometimes we get two or three calls a day from “Nicole from the NBN” telling us we’re going to be cut off in 24 hours. It’s been going on for months.

  19. zoomster

    That’s interesting, because I’m probably in the same off-fibre area as you. A bit scary until I checked that it was nonsense.

  20. zoomster @ #226 Thursday, July 25th, 2019 – 3:51 pm

    lizzie

    Don’t understand the point of it, but sometimes we get two or three calls a day from “Nicole from the NBN” telling us we’re going to be cut off in 24 hours. It’s been going on for months.

    I don’t fully understand either, but I’m really too busy going to the Post Office to buy I-Tunes gift cards to send to the ATO to worry too much about it.

  21. I just get ones, repeatedly, that when I answer the phone, they say, in a robotic voice, ‘Goodbye!’ It spooks me out!

  22. “Any suggestion of cutting a deficit involving increasing revenue by whatever means will be pushed by the government and News Ltd as a (insert noun) tax.”

    The Coalition doesn’t campaign on what services and programs they’re going to cut or privatise in their next term, they just do it when they’re home safe, lying about it before an election in the unlikely event that someone from the media asks them about it.

    Putting ethics aside, the media allows the Coalition to lie but not Labor. Labor needs to be twice as smart as the Coalition to break even.

  23. lizzie @ #155 Thursday, July 25th, 2019 – 2:03 pm

    Oh sht

    I was going to watch QT, but Morrison has launched into “Oh but Labor” and telling lies and Smith defends him. Off.

    mundo @ #157 Thursday, July 25th, 2019 – 2:05 pm

    So, just checking, has Labor drafted Geoff Gallop to lead the federal party yet?
    If not, has he been invited to hold courses in confidence, passion, enthusiasm and public speaking for the current leadership team?

    No. They’re sticking with Albo and Marlsey.
    And passion, public speaking, enthusiasm and confidence are overrated.
    Just Boris who is going to call a general election sometime in the next 6 months and win in a landslide.
    Yes, I’ve been speaking with Blind Freddie.

  24. Salmon farms typically involve the production of a lot of salmon shit and also an amount of food that is not eaten.

    As both of these decompose the water is deoxygenated.
    As temperatures increase the problem gets worse.
    As water flows decrease the problem gets worse.
    Spot the environmental limits to salmon production.
    Spot the climate change trends that are going to limit salmon production!

    I doubt that the listeria is a function of salmon farming per se but I am not certain.
    IMO, it is more likely to be associated with the food preparation, storage and distribution parts of salmon farming.

  25. guytaur says:
    Thursday, July 25, 2019 at 3:53 pm
    This ends Nuclear Power as an option. No power.

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/paris-scorches-in-historic-drought-as-heatwave-fries-europe-20190725-p52aiz.html
    _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
    Yes, good point. I saw a letter in yesterday’s Sydney Morning Herald that France’s energy was 75% nuclear powered, so wasn’t it time for Australia to consider investing in same?
    The fact that nuclear power requires dollops of water, of which we have a chronic shortage in this country, is not usually mentioned by nuclear power advocates. The other interesting fact is that if the water is too hot, as is happening with the heat wave in France, then it is useless for cooling the reactor which may then have to be shut down.
    I don’t think Australia is about to go nuclear, but the fact that some Coalition MPs and other prominent figures have suggested it means we have to keep an eye on them.
    The only time in my life I thought nuclear power might be justified was as a way of combating global heating; that is, if there were really no feasible alternative to burning fossil fuels.
    But renewable energies have now reached a point of development where we can realistically plan for them to eventually replace coal and oil, if we get cracking with the right policies.

  26. Mighty speech by Richard di Natale

    The greens have set the example where to attack the liberal & national party on the percentages , when will Labor party do this

  27. Ah, an explanation (not an excuse). Too early in the morning for staff to be on duty.

    “I have, for a long time, been dealing with addiction and other mental health issues. Medication I take was in my luggage, which was locked in a room that I was not able to access, as no staff were on site.”

    Fowles said he will pay for the damages, and had recently undertaken a course of drug and alcohol counselling.

    He said the trip was privately funded.

  28. Other phone scams we have experienced include:

    The phone rings and when we press to take the call, the line goes dead. We’ve never rung back because apparently you are connected to one of those $5 a minute services and they try to keep you on the line as long as possible.

    Another scam we experienced a lot, but not recently, was an often Indian voice calling about “your recent car accident”. I’ve never stayed on the line to hear the full spiel but it seems to lead eventually to an offer of compensation…presumably as long as you provide your bank details etc.

    “Your Internet will be cut off” or “you must update your details to continue using email” scammers also use email. I’ve had a number of these where I was supposed to click on a button on the screen. Presumably you are either asked to provide bank details/passwords or else a virus is downloaded onto your computer.

    I do payments for a small not-for-profit. The number of fake invoices is astounding.

  29. Morrison’s and the Coalition’s solution to mass Super theft… now tracking into many, many billions, is to legislate an amnesty for employers.

    No, not Super Robocop; not jail; not political slut shaming of the perps by the Government.
    None of those.

    Just a quiet little hey maaaaaaaaaaaaate!

  30. I can’t help but feel just a little bit of schadenfreude at this news:

    The sharemarket’s new highs are a cause for nagging unease as much as confidence. This is, in part, because the previous record in November 2007 was set weeks before the market plunged into a crisis that pushed the entire financial system to the brink of collapse.

    Another financial crisis is not as likely now. But it is only a matter of time before an old-fashioned sharemarket correction hits, probably induced by an equally old-fashioned economic recession. Donald Trump’s trade war has helped bring it closer.

    https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/last-time-markets-were-this-high-the-gfc-came-next-so-what-s-coming-now-20190724-p52aap.html

  31. Nuclear power is yet another Coalition unicorn.
    The correct response to unicorns is NOT to talk about the unicorns.
    The correct response is to immediately mount an attack on Morrison and the Coalition for promoting the burning of more fossil fuel using taxpayers’ funds.

  32. Wow! I have an idea what the medication may have been. I won’t speculate further than that, except to say, you sure do need to take it on time.

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