Essential Research leadership polling

The second set of leadership ratings since the election is featured in the latest release from Essential Research, which may also offer a hint of how it plans to respond to the great pollster failure.

The fortnightly Essential Research release is the second since the election to encompass the monthly leadership ratings. These offer positive signs for Anthony Albanese, who is up four from his debut on approval to 39% and down one on disapproval to 24%, while Scott Morrison is slightly improved in net terms, with approval steady on 48% and disapproval down two to 34%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is effectively unchanged, shifting from 43-25 to 44-26. The poll also features a series of questions on the ban on tourists climbing Uluru, which 44% support and 30% oppose, and 69% professing awareness of the issue.

Of particular interest in this release is the revelation that Essential is inquiring about respondents’ income, which appears to be a new development. The only detail provided in the polling results is that Morrison has 59% approval among higher income earners, but the appendices go to the trouble of telling us that Essential has set three income cohorts for its surveys: low (below $52,000), high (above $104,000) and medium (in between).

I suspect this means Essential’s response to the pollster failure will be to start using income to weight its results. This is a departure from the Australian industry norm of weighting only by geography, gender and age, and would also seem to be a bit unusual internationally. An American pollster noted last year the practice had fallen out of favour there due to the high non-response rate to questions on personal income. The preference is to instead weight to other factors which themselves correlate with income, notably education and, particularly in Britain, social class.

The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1091. In the Guardian report accompanying the poll, the elephant in the room was addressed thus:

There has been controversy post-election about the reliability of opinion polling because none of the major surveys – Newspoll, Ipsos, Galaxy or Essential – correctly predicted a Coalition win on 18 May, projecting Labor in front on a two-party preferred vote of 51-49 and 52-48. The lack of precision in the polling has prompted public reflection at Essential, as has been flagged by its executive director, Peter Lewis. Guardian Australia is not currently publishing measurements of primary votes or a two-party preferred calculation, but is continuing to publish survey results of responses to questions about the leaders and policy issues.

Also in The Guardian today are results from a separate Essential Research poll, this one for Digital Rights Watch concerning recent police raids on journalists. In response to a question noting raids on “the offices and homes of News Corp and ABC journalists who reported on national security issues”, 40% said they were very concerned, 34% slightly concerned and 26% not concerned. Similar results were produced on questions relating to metadata and police powers to break into online communications systems. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1089.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

819 comments on “Essential Research leadership polling”

Comments Page 3 of 17
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  1. Sounds like New Labor to me:

    Mr Fowles is a member of the wealthy Fowles family, which founded and owns the successful auctioneer, the Fowles Auction Group.
    Mr Fowles was last month accused by Victorian Liberal MP James Newbury of failing to pay workers’ entitlements when his former Queensland pub went into receivership in 2015.
    He has also worked in communications, and was best known for nabbing a seat on the exclusive Melbourne Cricket Club committee, as the MCC’s youngest committee member in history.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/victorian-labor-mp-will-fowles-questioned-over-hotel-disturbance-20190725-p52akt.html

  3. @ByrnePip
    ·
    55m
    Brilliant plan…not. It’s already forecast that pensions won’t be available in the future, so with no super more forced in to homelessness. On the street in an even hotter world, will they just eat the weakest???

  4. The weapons systems have been flying across the world, from Australia to the United Arab Emirates (UAE), for months. But neither the company selling them, nor the Australian Government, has said exactly who is buying them.

    Now, thanks to new photographic evidence, the secret’s out.

    Photos sent to the ABC from an anonymous source show the weapons systems awaiting export at Sydney airport.

    More importantly, they reveal Australian company Electro Optic Systems (EOS) is selling its next generation remote weapons system directly to the UAE’s Armed Forces, which stands accused of war crimes as part of its role in the controversial Yemen war.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-07-25/australian-company-sending-weapons-systems-directly-to-uae/11322974

  5. lizzie says:
    Thursday, July 25, 2019 at 10:44 am

    @ByrnePip
    ·
    55m
    Brilliant plan…not. It’s already forecast that pensions won’t be available in the future, so with no super more forced in to homelessness. On the street in an even hotter world, will they just eat the weakest???

    But with global warming, it will be nice sleeping outside¿

  7. Treasury boss, former chief of staff to Scott Morrison when he was in Treasury – Phil Gaetjens – has been named Morrison’s new departmental secretary.

    Steven Kennedy, who is in infrastructure, will move over to Treasury.

  9. Katharine Murphy @murpharoo
    ·
    4m
    Morrison is telling reporters working in a political office aids bureaucrats in carrying out their duties #auspol

    David Crowe @CroweDM
    ·
    4m
    Ready for question about ‘politicisation’ for naming Phil Gaetjens as PM&C Secretary, Scott Morrison reels off a list of Labor appointments dating back to Don Russell in the Keating era.

  10. The door does look like it’s little more than a facade. 🙂

    But, what an idiot to do such a thing, no matter his own personal justifications.

  11. ‘Scott Morrison reels off a list of Labor appointments dating back to Don Russell in the Keating era.’

    I’m always chuffed when the Liberals do something like this. They’re admitting they have no moral compass of their own and have to look at what Labor does to work out whether something they’re doing is right or wrong.

  12. But, what an idiot to do such a thing, no matter his own personal justifications.

    Yeah. But also, who ever heard of a hotel not letting you collect your bags?

  14. Re. Fowles:

    [‘The ACT police have released this statement:

    At about 7.50am today ACT Policing received a report of a disturbance at a hotel in Kingston.

    Officers on patrol nearby attended and the matter was resolved.

    At this time, no charges have been laid. Police are investigating the circumstances surrounding the incident in consultation with the business owners.

    For privacy reasons, ACT Policing cannot comment on whether a particular individual is under investigation or not.’]

    Prima facie a case of wilful damage.

  15. Ronni Salt @MsVeruca
    ·(story in The Australian)
    1m
    Successive NSW Nationals water ministers endorsed a “sharing plan” for the Darling River that gave irrigators upstream too much water, bringing on a drought 3 years before it would ordinarily have happened in the far west of the state

    What a surprise

  16. I don’t think the automatic text generator is working too well. Generating nonsense.

    Scott Morrison ends the press conference after this question:

    Back to the public sector, the economy is facing a testing time at the moment and you have also implemented or are working on Ember mentation of the Royal Commission, did you take that into consideration when you change horses in Treasury smoke a confident of this process?

  17. Re NSW Labor….

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/labor-had-scheme-to-evade-electoral-funding-laws-20190724-p52age.html

    ICAC executed a search warrant on Labor’s Sussex Street office on December 18 over concerns the party had since January 2015 “entered into a scheme to evade the prohibitions and requirements of [the electoral funding act] relating to political donations”.
    :::
    After its own preliminary inquiries, the NSW Electoral Commission referred the matter to ICAC in January 2018, with the watchdog deciding in June that year to launch an investigation.
    :::
    The raid prompted Labor to quarantine $100,000 in political donations at the centre of the investigation ahead of the March state election.
    :::
    A spokesperson for the party on Wednesday said Labor continued to work with the watchdog regarding the historic donations. There is yet to be a decision by the ICAC as to whether a public inquiry will take place.

    The limitation period for prosecution of most of the offences outlined in the report will not expire until 2025.

  19. How many unemployed have been caught by this money-making scheme?

    jeremy poxon @JeremyPoxon
    ·16m
    job service providers get big $$$ bonuses for pushing Newstart recipients into Work for the dole – hence why they tell you it’s your only option. WFD is a humiliating, degrading, even dangerous experience – and you have every right to avoid it

    jeremy poxon @JeremyPoxon
    if they still try to force you into it – after you’ve explained your right to do another activity – it’s time to contact an advocate. free call @AusUnemployment , or slide into my DMs – i’m always happy to get on the phone & have a nice chat to people’s JSPs

  20. The item pictured above is part of a “concealed in plain sight” plan to rescue the Parliamentary Cleaners from their Satanic Suffering in the “hellpits of despair” in which they labour.

    A crack team of ex would be special forces layabouts and barroom lawyers are currently being fitted with special stealth coating and camouflage outfits to deny the Masters of the Universe whose function it is to bring misery and destruction to those considered unworthy or untreatable in a planned forced “Back to God for the Silent Australians” program.

    Captured in a jovial mood while planning their courageous rescue are these citizens already in their disguises.

    The “platoon” as they are self describing have armed themselves with stout cudgels and sticks and … the leader stands out in his disguise as a “washer woman.”

    Expecting total victory and unconditional surrender from the well fed and chubby cheeked adversaries (see picture posted by Lizzie ) the following copy has been sent to partner News Organs where, concealed among the daily drivel the vision will be announced to a grateful world.

    Should anybody watch Parliament Question Time and,yes, I know how unlikely that would be, expect a great hulloo of shouting and rage later today.

    😍😍😍😍😍😍😍😍😍😍😍😍😍😍😍😍😍😍😍😍😍😍😍😍😍😍😍😍

    Many thanks to the memory of Kenneth Graham whose book has given me so much pleasure over the years.

  21. The G – Medevac repeal:

    It will pass the House. Then it heads to the Senate, where, as we’ve been reporting since earlier this month, it will do nothing for at least a couple of months. The bill is in committee, which is not due to report back until October. The Senate won’t sit again until November. So there is a bit of time for both sides to make their cases to Jacqui Lambie.

  22. “The Senate won’t sit again until November.”

    The Senate _is_ sitting between now and November; November is probably the next sitting after the report has been released in October.

  25. adrian says:
    Thursday, July 25, 2019 at 11:34 am

    Barney in Makassar @ #109 Thursday, July 25th, 2019 – 11:02 am

    The door does look like it’s little more than a facade.

    But, what an idiot to do such a thing, no matter his own personal justifications.

    As opposed to the justification of others.

    Just emphasising something that’s becoming far too common, so that even someone such as yourself may understand the point.

  26. Greg Barns @BarnsGreg
    ·
    12m
    The frightening power Dutton has to exclude journalists and whistleblowers from re entering Australia
    …
    The Coalition and ALP supported “exclusion orders” law is now before the Senate. It gives Minister for Home Affairs Peter Dutton unprecedented powers over the lives of individuals who the government says have been fighting against Western interests in countries like Syria and Iraq in recent years.

    But one clause in the Counter-Terrorism (Temporary Exclusion Orders) Bill 2019 appears so broadly drafted that it could be used to prevent whistleblowers, journalists and others who reveal the secrets of the US, Australia and other allies in the so-called war on terror from entering Australia.

    https://www.crikey.com.au/2019/07/25/temporary-exclusion-orders-whistleblowers/

  30. PJ.Caz
    @PJC_Raiders
    ·
    22m
    #Maddow breaks news that immediately within 8 minutes of the completion of the 2nd hearing, Trump sought an emergency petition to block the obtaining of his tax returns. Interesting.

  32. sprocket_ says: Wednesday, July 24, 2019 at 7:45 pm

    Slightly off topic, but I was just reading some Psychology Today to brush up on nath’s frustrated desire, and came across this…

    “Diogenes the Cynic, who was a contemporary of Plato in Ancient Athens, taught by living example that wisdom and happiness belong to the person who is independent of society.
    ————————–

    It seems to be Nath Against the World this morning, so to lighten the mood, I’ll wander with Sprocket from the previous thread, off-topic for a bit.

    “Oh, Diogenes” was a great, but lesser-known song from the brilliant 1938 Rodgers and Hart score of “The Boys From Syracuse.” Larry Hart’s lyric neatly encapsulated the career of the cynical philosopher

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hM9hCwOV3W0

    VERSE

    There was an old zany who lived in a tub;
    He had so many fleabites
    He didn’t know where to rub.
    He kept looking for an honest man.
    Said, “I’m gonna find him if I can.”
    If I could meet Diogenes today,
    This is what I’d say:
    “Rub-a-dub-dub,
    Hop out of your tub,
    Diogenes!”

    REFRAIN

    Oh, Diogenes!
    Find a man who’s honest.
    Oh, Diogenes!
    Wrap him up for me.
    Oh, Diogenes!
    Find a man who’s stolid-solid!
    Hook that fish if he’s in the sea.
    Hunt him! Trail him!
    Catch him! Nail him!
    If he is free.
    Have you got your stick?
    Have you got your lantern?
    Can vou do the trick
    And produce him, please!
    Catch that fellow!
    Ring that bell,
    Oh. Diogenes!

    I’d acknowledge the current copyright owner, except after his death, control of Hart’s royalties, some allege, were in effect stolen from Hart’s family by Dick Rodgers, the Hammerstein organization and Hart’s accountant who was appointed by Rodgers.

  33. It must have taken quite some persistence to trash the door as much as that. Perhaps he hadn’t settled his bill and that’s why they were hanging on to his bags.

  35. How is this guy not a Liberal:

    Mr Fowles is a member of the wealthy Fowles family, which founded and owns the successful auctioneer, the Fowles Auction Group.
    Mr Fowles was last month accused by Victorian Liberal MP James Newbury of failing to pay workers’ entitlements when his former Queensland pub went into receivership in 2015.
    He has also worked in communications, and was best known for nabbing a seat on the exclusive Melbourne Cricket Club committee, as the MCC’s youngest committee member in history.

  37. On Fowles:
    Fair is foul, and foul is fair!

    Fowles had no business joining the ALP given his background. But if he really did it to trash their reputation as an infiltrator, then all the more praise to him!

  38. Barney in Makassar @ #124 Thursday, July 25th, 2019 – 11:44 am

    adrian says:
    Thursday, July 25, 2019 at 11:34 am

    Barney in Makassar @ #109 Thursday, July 25th, 2019 – 11:02 am

    The door does look like it’s little more than a facade.

    But, what an idiot to do such a thing, no matter his own personal justifications.

    As opposed to the justification of others.

    Just emphasising something that’s becoming far too common, so that even someone such as yourself may understand the point.

    Someone such as yourself should understand tautology.

  41. It must have taken quite some persistence to trash the door as much as that. Perhaps he hadn’t settled his bill and that’s why they were hanging on to his bags.

    Yeah? To me it look like he just didn’t realise it was a sliding door.

    What a pillock.

  43. Michael West
    2h
    Coming soon: shadowy Chinese corporations plan to take control of RAAF airbase. The cover-up. Murdoch press muzzled. Investigation by @Anthony_Klan for @MichaelWestBiz
    ·

  44. This is the story the Murdoch press buried. Investigative reporter, Anthony Klan, defected from The Australian newspaper after News Corp bosses muzzled his investigations, including this expose into secret Chinese plans to establish an aviation facility on an Australian airforce base.

    Virgin Australia may have misled all levels of Australian government and has made dubious public claims about the true identity of its shadowy Chinese partners in its secretive proposal to take control of the nation’s biggest military pilot school, at an RAAF training facility in Tamworth NSW.

    It can be revealed that the nation’s second biggest airline failed to inform the NSW Government, the Federal Government, the English speaking media – and even Tamworth council – about any foreign involvement in its proposal whatsoever, despite that mega-project being “certified” by the Chinese Communist Party a year ago.

    It can also be revealed that Virgin Australia has made dubious public claims, denying the involvement of one of its two key partners in the project, despite those claims being easily disproved by conducting relatively simple company searches.

    National security experts, including Swinburne University of Technology Professor John Fitzgerald, have described Virgin Australia’s secretive push in Tamworth as extremely concerning.

    They warn the proposal appears to be a re-run of the highly controversial 2015 deal whereby the Chinese Communist Party-linked Landbridge Group was granted a 99-year lease over the Port of Darwin, a move which drew an angry rebuke from then US President Barrack Obama.

    https://www.michaelwest.com.au/mayday-two-shadowy-chinese-corporations-behind-virgins-plan-to-control-australian-airbase/

  46. Bill McKibben @billmckibben
    ·
    14h
    Seems likely that tomorrow will be the hottest day recorded in the history of the UK-(39 deg)-and the UK has the longest temperature record on earth

  47. :sigh:

    Pauline Hanson is on Sky News telling Chris Kenny that Labor senator “Kimberley Kitchiner” who she thinks is “great” has reached out to her to set up some sort of formal working relationship, with regular meetings.

  48. Oh noes, first we discover , thanks to Clive, Chinese plans to take over Perth with an invasion launched from a ‘secret’ Chinese air base in the Wild West and now we find they are readying an invasion of the East Coast. 🙂 .

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