Essential Research leadership polling

The second set of leadership ratings since the election is featured in the latest release from Essential Research, which may also offer a hint of how it plans to respond to the great pollster failure.

The fortnightly Essential Research release is the second since the election to encompass the monthly leadership ratings. These offer positive signs for Anthony Albanese, who is up four from his debut on approval to 39% and down one on disapproval to 24%, while Scott Morrison is slightly improved in net terms, with approval steady on 48% and disapproval down two to 34%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is effectively unchanged, shifting from 43-25 to 44-26. The poll also features a series of questions on the ban on tourists climbing Uluru, which 44% support and 30% oppose, and 69% professing awareness of the issue.

Of particular interest in this release is the revelation that Essential is inquiring about respondents’ income, which appears to be a new development. The only detail provided in the polling results is that Morrison has 59% approval among higher income earners, but the appendices go to the trouble of telling us that Essential has set three income cohorts for its surveys: low (below $52,000), high (above $104,000) and medium (in between).

I suspect this means Essential’s response to the pollster failure will be to start using income to weight its results. This is a departure from the Australian industry norm of weighting only by geography, gender and age, and would also seem to be a bit unusual internationally. An American pollster noted last year the practice had fallen out of favour there due to the high non-response rate to questions on personal income. The preference is to instead weight to other factors which themselves correlate with income, notably education and, particularly in Britain, social class.

The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1091. In the Guardian report accompanying the poll, the elephant in the room was addressed thus:

There has been controversy post-election about the reliability of opinion polling because none of the major surveys – Newspoll, Ipsos, Galaxy or Essential – correctly predicted a Coalition win on 18 May, projecting Labor in front on a two-party preferred vote of 51-49 and 52-48. The lack of precision in the polling has prompted public reflection at Essential, as has been flagged by its executive director, Peter Lewis. Guardian Australia is not currently publishing measurements of primary votes or a two-party preferred calculation, but is continuing to publish survey results of responses to questions about the leaders and policy issues.

Also in The Guardian today are results from a separate Essential Research poll, this one for Digital Rights Watch concerning recent police raids on journalists. In response to a question noting raids on “the offices and homes of News Corp and ABC journalists who reported on national security issues”, 40% said they were very concerned, 34% slightly concerned and 26% not concerned. Similar results were produced on questions relating to metadata and police powers to break into online communications systems. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1089.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

819 comments on “Essential Research leadership polling”

  1. The latest article in The Guardian’s The Transparency Project:

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jul/27/national-security-being-used-to-stifle-public-interest-journalism-former-judges-warn

    A new group of prominent ex-judges and anti-corruption experts has warned that national security is being used to clamp down on whistleblowers and journalists on an unprecedented scale.

    The newly-formed Centre for Public Integrity has brought together a powerful collection of former judges, lawyers, and integrity experts to push for a strong federal anti-corruption body, champion donations and lobbying reform, and protect Australia’s various accountability institutions, including the media.
    :::
    “Reform of our political finance and lobbying regulations is urgently needed to stop the undue influence of those with money to spend on donations and campaigns,” he said.

    “There is currently no agency that can effectively investigate corruption allegations in federal politics and public service. A national integrity commission with strong powers and the ability to hold public hearings is crucial to restoring public trust.”

  2. Australia’s approach to whistleblowing is at odds with other western democracies. The United States, for example, rewards whistleblowers for coming forward. Labor promised a whistleblower rewards scheme if elected, a proposal the Coalition labelled “wacky”.

    Instead, Australia prosecutes whistleblowers such as Richard Boyle, the tax office employee who revealed aggressive approaches to debt collection that were driving small business owners to the brink.

    Whealy said the legal protections had failed to adjust to shifting community perceptions of whistleblowers. “The public feeling is very different now. I think the community as a whole would regard genuine whistleblowers as worth paying money to, as they do overseas,” he said.

    “So why is the government – suddenly it seems – giving instructions to the police to investigate whistleblowers in areas where the public interest seems to demand the public know what the whistleblower wants to talk about?”

    The Centre for Public Integrity includes former judges Tony Fitzgerald, David Ipp, and Stephen Charles. It also features highly respected law academic Prof George Williams, integrity and electoral authority Prof Joo-Cheong Tham, and former counsel assisting the NSW Independent Commission Against Corruption Geoffrey Watson.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jul/27/national-security-being-used-to-stifle-public-interest-journalism-former-judges-warn

  3. lizzie says:
    Saturday, July 27, 2019 at 10:01 am

    @KoparaFallsKid
    27m

    Now I’ve heard everything.

    Bishop tells kids ‘Gay people exist because their mothers like anal sex’ – (link: http://bit.ly/2yg7iao) bit.ly/2yg7iao via
    @aSciEnthusiast

    I suppose oral sex during pregnancy would explain lesbians¿

  4. lizzie:

    [‘Much easier for Dutton to pursue stateless asylum seekers. No doubt he admires the rich who “have a go”.’]

    I see that Ros Packer is a large donor to the Tory Party (see sprocket’s post at 9:04 am). I’m confident that Dutton has not let this interfere with his role of keeping us safe from super-rich criminals. Labor should have a field day with this one.


  5. briefly says:
    Saturday, July 27, 2019 at 9:40 am

    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/money-is-created-by-the-banks-not-the-government-20190725-p52at7.html

    As Emma Doherty, Ben Jackman and Emily Perry explained in the Reserve Bank’s Bulletin last year, money is created when banks make loans.

    This is precisely correct. The creation of loans creates spending power – money – in the hands of the borrower. A liability is created in the customer account and an asset is created in the bank’s account, reflecting the loan. When the money is spent by the borrower it will show up us a deposit into the banking system…as an asset of the recipient of the money and a liability of the recipient’s bank. The creation of an asset in one part of the banking system gives rise to a liability elsewhere in the system. Banks create financial assets and liabilities. They create money.

    Read it all before briefly; double entry book keeping exposes the underlying bullshit. You get a headache trying to find the creation bit because there is none.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qBpm5sVmGYc

  6. Player One says:
    Saturday, July 27, 2019 at 10:18 am

    Barney in Makassar @ #697 Saturday, July 27th, 2019 – 9:32 am

    I think you might find that the climate has no effect on the weather we receive now or in the future.

    Climate isn’t even a real thing, it’s just a man made tool to help describe the weather conditions over a period of time in the past.

    You are not serious, I hope.

    What have said that is incorrect?

  7. Barney in Makassar @ #711 Saturday, July 27th, 2019 – 10:24 am

    Player One says:
    Saturday, July 27, 2019 at 10:18 am

    Barney in Makassar @ #697 Saturday, July 27th, 2019 – 9:32 am

    I think you might find that the climate has no effect on the weather we receive now or in the future.

    Climate isn’t even a real thing, it’s just a man made tool to help describe the weather conditions over a period of time in the past.

    You are not serious, I hope.

    What have said that is incorrect?

    Climate has no effect on weather? Climate is not a real thing?

    I am fairly sure you are joking … aren’t you?

  8. Player One @ #709 Saturday, July 27th, 2019 – 10:18 am

    Barney in Makassar @ #697 Saturday, July 27th, 2019 – 9:32 am

    I think you might find that the climate has no effect on the weather we receive now or in the future.

    Climate isn’t even a real thing, it’s just a man made tool to help describe the weather conditions over a period of time in the past.

    You are not serious, I hope.

    Probably one of the stupidest things that I have read on ze internet. I can’t blame residing in Makassar on that one.

  9. Player One says:
    Saturday, July 27, 2019 at 10:27 am

    Barney in Makassar @ #711 Saturday, July 27th, 2019 – 10:24 am

    Player One says:
    Saturday, July 27, 2019 at 10:18 am

    Barney in Makassar @ #697 Saturday, July 27th, 2019 – 9:32 am

    I think you might find that the climate has no effect on the weather we receive now or in the future.

    Climate isn’t even a real thing, it’s just a man made tool to help describe the weather conditions over a period of time in the past.

    You are not serious, I hope.

    What have said that is incorrect?

    Climate has no effect on weather? Climate is not a real thing?

    I am fairly sure you are joking … aren’t you?

    You obviously don’t understand what climate is and how it is determined.

  10. Despite the gaslighting by Trump and his enablers in the MSM, telling all and sundry that nothing to see here move along.
    More exciting revelations are due.
    Take note of how many Republicans in particular will be resigning.
    Interesting times continue.

  11. Barney in Makassar
    Weather: short term: Our reality in most cases.
    Climate: long term: New reality because we are changing it so fast.

    Quantum mechanics: Small, a reality we are trying to use.
    Newton mechanics: Medium scale: Our reality: In most cases.
    General relativity: A reality we using in some cases.


  12. briefly says:
    Saturday, July 27, 2019 at 10:34 am

    frednk says:
    Saturday, July 27, 2019 at 10:22 am

    Well, it sure comes from somewhere. Do you have another explanation?

    Watch the utube video. It really is good for the headache that results when you try and find the money creation in the “banks do it” bullshit.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qBpm5sVmGYc

  13. Barney, what you’re suggesting is that climate is an ‘idea’. Ideas are man-made. Therefore the climate is man-made.

    Climate is only man-made in the same way that all ideas/concepts/explanations/names/terms/thoughts are ‘cognitive’ and therefore don’t ‘exist’.

    The proposition that the climate doesn’t exist is obviously false. The climate would exist independently of any term we use to describe it or any attempt to explain it. There are phenomena in the cosmos we have yet to discern or comprehend or name, but they still exist. Our naming of them does not give rise to them. We’re just not that important.

  14. Most people don’t know that the number in their bank account isn’t actually currency. It is their bank’s promise to pay them currency on demand. There is a difference. But in practice it is as good as currency itself because the deposit is insured by the federal government. Commercial banks are effectively part of a public-private partnership. They help the federal government to run a public utility (the payments system).

  15. Briefly,

    Climate is tool to analyse the weather we experience.

    From the analysis we can find patterns that can help in the understanding of weather, the most obvious one is the annual cycle.

  16. Barney in Makassar @ #725 Saturday, July 27th, 2019 – 10:50 am

    Climate is tool to analyse the weather we experience.

    Climate is the average weather across a geographic area over a particular span of time. Its existence and its value is the same regardless of whether we name and measure it.

    You’re just playing clever word games. Probably because it’s fun to play clever word games. But that doesn’t make other people ignorant. Or climate not a thing.

  17. ‘lizzie says:
    Saturday, July 27, 2019 at 10:01 am

    @KoparaFallsKid
    27m

    Now I’ve heard everything.

    Bishop tells kids ‘Gay people exist because their mothers like anal sex’ – (link: http://bit.ly/2yg7iao) bit.ly/2yg7iao via
    @aSciEnthusiast’

    So. Who did the field work?
    Oh. And one other thing. For Christ’s sake don’t anybody tell Izzy about this.

  18. Nicholas:

    [‘…the deposit is insured by the federal government.’]

    Yes, but with important qualifications.

    [‘Re. Government guarantee on deposits:

    The Australian Government guarantees deposits up to $250,000 in Authorised Deposit-taking Institutions (ADIs) such as your bank, building society or credit union. This means that this money is guaranteed if anything happens to the ADI.

    The cap applies per person and per ADI. So if you have $250,000 with one ADI and $250,000 with another, then both of your deposits are guaranteed. If you have more than $250,000 with one ADI then only up to $250,000 is guaranteed.

    Some ADIs operate multiple brands or may offer deposit accounts under more than one brand name. However, they are still part of the same ADI. The guarantee covers deposits per ADI, not per brand name. For example, if you have multiple deposit accounts with brands that are owned by the same ADI, the guarantee will only apply to $250,000 of these funds in total. If this concerns you, make sure you know who the ADI is that you bank with.

    In the case of joint accounts, each account holder is entitled to an individual guarantee up to $250,000.

    The guarantee applies to all ADIs incorporated in Australia, including Australian-owned banks, foreign subsidiary banks, building societies and credit unions. To check which banks are covered by the guarantee see the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority’s list of ADIs.

    The types of accounts covered by the guarantee are: savings accounts; call accounts; term deposits; current accounts; cheque accounts; debit card accounts; transaction accounts; personal basic accounts; cash management accounts; farm management deposits; pensioner deeming accounts; mortgage offset accounts, either 100 per cent or partial offset that are separate deposit accounts; trustee accounts; and retirement savings accounts.’]

    – source: ASIC, Oct. 2018

  19. As usual, we are all wrong.

    ‘Eco-Deconstruction: Derrida and Environmental Philosophy launches a new mode of philosophical and ethical reflection with respect to the challenges posed by the degradation of the natural environment, including habitat loss, species extinction, and climate change. While the work of French philosopher Jacques Derrida (1930-2004), with its relentless interrogation of the anthropocentric metaphysics of presence, has already proven highly influential in posthumanism and animal studies, the present volume, drawing on published and unpublished work by Derrida and others, builds on these insights in addressing and responding to the most pressing environmental issues of our time. The volume brings together 15 scholars, many of which have achieved world renown, from a wide variety of related fields, including eco-phenomenology, eco-hermeneutics, new materialism, posthumanism, animal studies, vegetal philosophy, science and technology studies, environmental humanities, eco-criticism, earth art and aesthetics, and analytic environmental ethics. Overall, eco-deconstruction offers an account of differential relationality explored in a non-final, non-totalizable ecological context, both quasi-ontologically and quasi-normatively, with attention to diagnosing our times. Accordingly, the book is divided into four sections—Diagnosing the Present, which suggests that our times are marked by a facile, flattened-out understanding of time and thus in need of deconstructive dispositions; Ecologies, which mobilizes the spectral ontology of deconstruction to argue for an originary environmentality, the constitutive ecological embeddedness of mortal life; Nuclear and Other Biodegradabilities, in which contributors reflect on the remains, by-products, and disintegrations of human culture, including nuclear waste, environmental destruction, and species extinctions; and Environmental Ethics, which seeks to uncover a demand for justice, including human responsibility for suffering beings, that emerges precisely as a response to original differentiation, and the mortality and unmasterable alterity it installs in living beings. As such, the book may resonate with readers not only in philosophy, but across the humanities and the social and natural sciences.’

    https://muse.jhu.edu/book/57501

  20. ‘Nicholas says:
    Saturday, July 27, 2019 at 10:47 am

    Most people don’t know that the number in their bank account isn’t actually currency. ‘

    Just told my debtors that. They seemed less than impressed. Any comeback from them and I’ll be quoting MMT at them, the judges, and the juries all the way to the various court cases.

  21. I heard Scrotty say Howard was Australia’s greatest leader ever.
    False modesty shits me, we all know Scrotty is Australia’s greatest leader….closely followed by our second greatest leader Tony Abbott…and then in a tight 3rd place is Malcolm Tuenbull.
    We are indeed blessed.
    The fucking lucky as fuck country.

  22. a r,

    Global warming is based on science.

    The opposition debase the science to try and make their point.

    This is not something people who accept global warming should follow and in confusing climate and weather, this is exactly what is being done.

  23. The currency is banknotes, coins, and reserve deposits at the Reserve Bank of Australia. That’s it. Those three things. Nothing else.

    The number that you see on the computer screen when you log into your bank account is the number of currency units that your bank is promising to pay you if you ask it to. At this stage it is just bank credit, not Australian Government currency.

  24. Nicholas
    That is a load of anthropocentric metaphysical cobblers which totally fails to take into account the differential relationality explored evident in a non-final, non-totalizable economic context.

  25. Nice little feedback loop in the various Arctic wildfires.
    Someone added up the CO2 emissions and so far they come to the same annual CO2 emissions generated by Sweden.

  26. adrian says:
    Saturday, July 27, 2019 at 11:41 am

    Keep digging Barney.
    How’s Makassar these days?

    Makassar is a wonderful place.
    I don’t know how I survive being surrounded by so many terrible Muslims.

    That you think I’m digging, shows how little understanding you have and how unwilling you are to alleviate your ignorance.

  27. For those with Netflix… try The Great Hack (2 hour documentary).

    Canvasses Cambridge Analytica, Reality TV’s influence on politics, Assange, Facebook and other Big Data, lies, mistruths, whistleblowers, Russian nastiness, and plenty more.

    Compellingly told, beautifully produced (but not over-produced) and very convincing.

  28. Barney, my ignorance or otherwise isn’t the issue. What’s the issue is your stupidity in trying to differentiate climate and weather on entirely spurious grounds.

    BTW, my opinion of Makassar has nothing to do with the fact that it is populated by Muslims. Solo is likewise a Muslim city, but one of my favourite in SE Asia.

  29. The fact that federal deposit insurance is limited to $250,000 per person per institution is unnecessary, regrettable, and stupid. The limit was probably dreamed up by someone who thought that unlimited insurance would sound too good to be true. In truth it is easy for a currency issuer to keystroke a number into account. There isn’t an intrinsic limit on its capacity to do this. The government really should be insuring all deposits. If your bank fails, that is not at all your fault and you cannot be expected to have done anything differently.

  30. adrian says:
    Saturday, July 27, 2019 at 12:45 pm

    Barney, my ignorance or otherwise isn’t the issue. What’s the issue is your stupidity in trying to differentiate climate and weather on entirely spurious grounds.

    Well considering that they are two completely different things, the differentiation is necessary. 😆

  31. “You’re just playing clever word games. Probably because it’s fun to play clever word games. But that doesn’t make other people ignorant. Or climate not a thing.”

    Wot!!! Someone on PB playing word games?? Much surprisiment!! 🙂

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *