Essential Research leadership polling

The second set of leadership ratings since the election is featured in the latest release from Essential Research, which may also offer a hint of how it plans to respond to the great pollster failure.

The fortnightly Essential Research release is the second since the election to encompass the monthly leadership ratings. These offer positive signs for Anthony Albanese, who is up four from his debut on approval to 39% and down one on disapproval to 24%, while Scott Morrison is slightly improved in net terms, with approval steady on 48% and disapproval down two to 34%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is effectively unchanged, shifting from 43-25 to 44-26. The poll also features a series of questions on the ban on tourists climbing Uluru, which 44% support and 30% oppose, and 69% professing awareness of the issue.

Of particular interest in this release is the revelation that Essential is inquiring about respondents’ income, which appears to be a new development. The only detail provided in the polling results is that Morrison has 59% approval among higher income earners, but the appendices go to the trouble of telling us that Essential has set three income cohorts for its surveys: low (below $52,000), high (above $104,000) and medium (in between).

I suspect this means Essential’s response to the pollster failure will be to start using income to weight its results. This is a departure from the Australian industry norm of weighting only by geography, gender and age, and would also seem to be a bit unusual internationally. An American pollster noted last year the practice had fallen out of favour there due to the high non-response rate to questions on personal income. The preference is to instead weight to other factors which themselves correlate with income, notably education and, particularly in Britain, social class.

The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1091. In the Guardian report accompanying the poll, the elephant in the room was addressed thus:

There has been controversy post-election about the reliability of opinion polling because none of the major surveys – Newspoll, Ipsos, Galaxy or Essential – correctly predicted a Coalition win on 18 May, projecting Labor in front on a two-party preferred vote of 51-49 and 52-48. The lack of precision in the polling has prompted public reflection at Essential, as has been flagged by its executive director, Peter Lewis. Guardian Australia is not currently publishing measurements of primary votes or a two-party preferred calculation, but is continuing to publish survey results of responses to questions about the leaders and policy issues.

Also in The Guardian today are results from a separate Essential Research poll, this one for Digital Rights Watch concerning recent police raids on journalists. In response to a question noting raids on “the offices and homes of News Corp and ABC journalists who reported on national security issues”, 40% said they were very concerned, 34% slightly concerned and 26% not concerned. Similar results were produced on questions relating to metadata and police powers to break into online communications systems. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1089.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

819 comments on “Essential Research leadership polling”

  1. The building of Bendigo’s controversial new Islamic centre is a victory over extremism, bigotry and “dark views”, according to Premier Daniel Andrews

    Like clock work, every single time Daniel Andrews comes under pressure he feeds the chooks and his lefty base.

    Do not care about the mosque, just build it. But would be interested to know what drugs Fowles is on, solutions to the recycling crisis, why is the corruption watchdog probing the CFA dispute, how many more criminals are going to walk free due to lawyer X , Metro project delay the list goes on.

    But all we get is some puff piece about standing up for a mosque.

  2. Trump struggles to achieve 3 percent economic goal as growth slows

    The U.S. economy slowed in the spring, falling to a level that most economists consider healthy but that President Trump has often declared inadequate.

    The economy grew at a 2.1 percent annual rate in the second quarter, a downgrade from the first quarter’s surprisingly strong 3.1 percent pace and setting the stage for what could be a more tepid pace of growth the rest of the year.

    The middling results could pose a problem for Trump, who promised the economy could grow at 3 percent — or higher — every year during his tenure and is making the economy a centerpiece of his reelection campaign.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/07/26/trump-promised-percent-or-better-economy-so-far-its-not-happening/?utm_term=.300f043653d0

  3. FAIL: US intel analysts think North Korea has produced up to 12 nukes following Trump-Kim summit

    President Donald Trump’s high-profile meetings with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un so far have failed to deliver nuclear disarmament — and American intelligence analysts believe that the country has actually been building more nuclear weapons since the first Trump-Kim summit.

    The Wall Street Journal reports that U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency analysts believe North Korean scientists have produced up to 12 additional nuclear weapons ever since Trump and Kim famously shook hands in Singapore in 2018.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2019/07/fail-us-intel-analysts-think-north-korea-has-produced-up-to-12-nukes-following-trump-kim-summit/

  4. Morning all.

    Biden is still ahead of the other candidates.

    According to the conventional wisdom, Biden’s shaky performance in last month’s debate stripped the cloak of inevitability from his candidacy and wrapped it around … somebody else. Maybe Sen. Kamala D. Harris or Sen. Elizabeth Warren, crowned as winners of that debate by the conventionally wise. Maybe somebody else who will somehow spring out of single-digit limbo into the sunlight. Anybody but Biden.

    So then why is Biden still leading the polls, both nationally and in the battleground states? According to the RealClearPolitics polling averages, he has nearly twice the support nationally of his nearest rivals, Warren and Sen. Bernie Sanders. He also holds substantial leads in the early-voting states of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina.

    The way I see it, this race is still Biden’s to lose. He’s capable of doing so, to be sure, but the idea that his lead has somehow evaporated is false. One lousy debate outing didn’t doom President Barack Obama’s reelection effort in 2012. Neither has Biden’s lion-in-winter campaign been derailed.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/07/26/if-biden-is-toast-whys-he-still-so-far-ahead/?utm_term=.53e902e28662

  5. Casino and hotel operator Crown Resorts went into business with tour operators backed by Asia’s most powerful organised crime syndicates as part of its program to attract Chinese high rollers to its casinos.

    Crown, which is part-owned by one of Australia’s richest men, James Packer, may also have exploited weaknesses in Australia’s visa processes to fly VIP gamblers into Australia without sufficient vetting.

    An investigation by The Age, The Sydney Morning Herald and 60 Minutes can reveal that a criminal syndicate known as “The Company” used Crown-linked bank accounts and high-roller rooms to launder its funds, with Crown licensing and paying syndicate members to generate turnover in its Melbourne and Perth casinos.

    Multiple sources claim Crown’s desire to reap millions from the Chinese high-roller market led it to not only breach Chinese anti-gambling laws, but to partner with junket operators with links to drug traffickers, money launderers, human traffickers and Chinese government influence agents.

    https://www.theage.com.au/business/companies/crown-casino-s-links-to-asian-organised-crime-exposed-20190724-p52ahi.html

  6. Confessions says: Saturday, July 27, 2019 at 6:56 am

    Morning all.

    Biden is still ahead of the other candidates.

    *******************************************************************

    Trump Throws A Fit After Fox News Poll Shows Him Getting Blown Out By Biden

    Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump

    .@FoxNews is at it again. So different from what they used to be during the 2016 Primaries, & before – Proud Warriors! Now new Fox Polls, which have always been terrible to me (they had me losing BIG to Crooked Hillary), have me down to Sleepy Joe. Even considering………the fact that I have gone through a three year vicious Witch Hunt, perpetrated by the Lamestream Media in Collusion with Crooked and the Democrat Party, there can be NO WAY, with the greatest Economy in U.S. history, that I can be losing to the Sleepy One. KEEP AMERICA GREAT!

    Trump was triggered by a new Fox News poll showing him trailing Joe Biden by ten points 49%-39%. Trump has been in a panic for months over the prospect of facing Joe Biden in the general election.

    Trump is afraid because Joe Biden runs extremely well with the white and male voters that helped Trump eke out victories in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania

    https://www.politicususa.com/2019/07/26/trump-fox-news-poll.html

  7. Good luck with that Jerry.

    The House Judiciary Committee on Friday asked a federal judge to enforce congressional subpoenas seeking grand jury information related to the special counsel investigation, taking steps in the direction of possible impeachment of President Trump.

    Judiciary Chairman Jerrold Nadler (D-N.Y.) told reporters the legal request signaled that the panel is pursuing an impeachment investigation, although neither the committee nor the full House has formally voted for launching proceedings.

    “Because Department of Justice policies will not allow prosecution of a sitting president, the United States House of Representatives is the only institution of the federal government that can now hold President Trump accountable for these actions,” the petition said. “To do so, the House must have access to all the relevant facts and consider whether to exercise its full Article I powers, including a constitutional power of the utmost gravity — approval of articles of impeachment.”

    Nadler and his fellow Judiciary Democrats repeatedly emphasized that its filing was just a first step in a process that could eventually lead to articles of impeachment, but refused to say whether it would be the ultimate outcome.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/nadler-says-hes-going-to-court-today-next-week-to-enforce-mueller-related-subpoenas/2019/07/26/6b5733c2-afa2-11e9-8e77-03b30bc29f64_story.html?utm_term=.558bc1dc210d

  8. Peter Hartcher’s article on, guess who? John Setka and the government’s Union Busting Bill, has some wise quotes from Jacqui Lambie, of all people:

    Jacqui Lambie is disgusted by Setka’s conduct and has told him so face-to-face. She wants him out of his leadership job at the CFMMEU and she’s using this opportunity to apply maximum pressure.

    Lambie confirms the account that The Financial Review’s Phil Coorey reported this week. That is, Lambie told the president of the peak union body, Michele O’Neil of the ACTU, that “you got a problem with the IR [industrial relations] bill and it’s called John Setka”.

    Lambie says that if Setka clings to his job at the CFMMEU, she will be “more likely” to vote in support of the government’s bills. In other words, is Setka so determined to save his job that he’s prepared to expose the entire union movement to a government jihad?

    She takes the pressure further. “Every day John Setka is in the job is another day he’s doing irreparable damage to the reputation of the union movement and its workers,” she tells me.

    “I know people are worried about union-busting bills – so am I. But as long as he refuses to go and the leadership of the union continues to pussyfoot around without carrying out disciplinary action, we will see bill after union-busting bill and they will use John Setka as a battering ram.

    “There is a window of opportunity for John to put the interests of workers first but that window is closing fast.”

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/lambie-v-setka-senator-wants-union-boss-gone-20190726-p52b71.html

  9. Bloody hopeless.

    Foreign Minister Marise Payne has rejected demands from Pacific countries for Australia to do more to combat climate change, as she heads to Fiji for a regional meeting of foreign ministers.

    Key points:
    *Ms Payne defended the Coalition’s credentials on reducing greenhouse gas emissions
    *The Pacific region is emerging as a battleground for influence in global politics
    *She said the changing power dynamic in the Asia-Pacific isn’t cause for concern

    Pacific nations have identified climate change as the single greatest threat to their security, with leaders such as Tuvalu’s Prime Minister Enele Sopoage warning Australia needs a “more progressive response”.

    Australia’s Defence Department has spelled out clearly to a Senate inquiry that climate change will create “concurrency pressures” for the Defence Force as a rise in disaster relief operations continues.

    But Senator Payne has brushed off suggestions Australia isn’t doing enough on climate change, stating Pacific leaders “should be pleased” with Australia’s commitments under the UN’s Paris Agreement.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-07-24/marise-payne-defends-australias-climate-change-policies/11343166?pfmredir=sm

  10. @UrbanWronski
    ·
    12h
    They have a statue of Tony in a PM’s Avenue in a park in Ballarat & it is an inspiration – in the way it is regularly and systematically defaced by locals. Here he is wearing a crown of onions. More images of the suppository of all wisdom, please. Vandalism or group therapy?

  11. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. There’s quite a full bag today!

    Peter Hartcher explains how the continued presence of the odious John Setka is likely to pave the way for the government’s severe IR bills to pass through the Senate.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/lambie-v-setka-senator-wants-union-boss-gone-20190726-p52b71.html
    Tim Soutphommasane writes that all is not well with global political leadership.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/political-leadership-can-heal-or-spread-sickness-right-now-all-is-not-well-20190726-p52b0t.html
    Former Australian diplomat John McCarthy writes that the Trump-Johnson bromance could distract Australia from what really matters.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/trump-johnson-bromance-could-distract-australia-from-what-really-matters-20190725-p52aun.html
    Josh Frydenberg explains why digital giants are powerful companies and must be more accountable. He outlines the many recommendations the ACCC has made.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/digital-giants-are-powerful-companies-and-must-be-more-accountable-20190726-p52b73.html

    Billion-dollar fines can’t stop Google and Facebook. That’s peanuts for them asserts The Guardian.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jul/26/google-facebook-regulation-ftc-settlement
    Paul Kelly begins this contribution with “The bluster, bravado and unpredictability of Boris Johnson, now realising his destiny, cannot conceal the omens of British decline as Johnson seeks to remove Britain from the EU and counter the impression of a nation perilously divided and losing global influence.” (Google).

    johnson-realises-his-destiny-as-britain-loses-its-credibility/news-story/c309111c7c167384f4ab10624f413760

    Ross Gittins answers the question, “What is money, where does it come from and how is it created?”
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/money-is-created-by-the-banks-not-the-government-20190725-p52at7.html
    Karen Middleton reports that a new proposal that Home Affairs is pushing for would give the Australian Signals Directorate access to the IT systems of Australian companies, but the agency didn’t ask for these powers.
    https://outline.com/HU2DEE
    Christian Porter has been called a future prime minister for years – which explains why his new prominence has his colleagues wondering where he goes next writes David Crowe.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/why-canberra-is-suddenly-looking-at-christian-porter-20190726-p52b1t.html
    Mike Seccombe tells us how the Senate just might thaw out the 25 year freeze on NewStart.
    https://outline.com/p3EqK2
    Harriett Alexander tells us why Sydney’s children’s hospitals are at war.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/the-heart-of-the-matter-why-sydney-s-children-s-hospitals-are-at-war-20190717-p527xa.html
    Michael Pascoe says that the campaign to scrap Medicare isn’t going away any time soon.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/money/finance-news/2019/07/24/medicare-nib-private-health/
    Morrison’s still waiting for a policy spark but some colleagues have plenty of ideas says Katharine Murphy.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jul/26/morrisons-still-waiting-for-a-policy-spark-but-some-colleagues-have-plenty-of-ideas
    In this op-ed Nick McKim writes that a recent return visit to Manus Island confirmed that conditions have worsened in an already unspeakably cruel environment.
    https://outline.com/dvM9JL
    Rob Harris looks over the seven candidates jostling to replace Mitch Fifield in the Senate.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-seven-candidates-jostling-to-replace-mitch-fifield-in-the-senate-20190726-p52az6.html
    Laura Tingle writes about Morrison’s push to improve accountability and she looks at Labor’s mew QT methodology.
    https://outline.com/K2Fn2L
    Paul Bongiorno also writes on how Labor has been ignoring Morrison and concentrating on going after Angus Taylor. This is a very good read.
    https://outline.com/CSf4Xh
    And Paula Matthewson says that this week has confirmed Taylor as the weakest link.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2019/07/26/angus-taylor-lobby-group/
    John Silvester explains the one thing Nicola Gobbo did that saw gangland getaway driver Faruk Orman walk from jail.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/why-faruk-orman-walked-from-jail-20190726-p52b2m.html
    And now Australian criminals are lining up to appeal convictions.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jul/26/lawyer-x-case-australian-criminals-line-up-to-appeal-convictions
    Sally Whyte tells us how ACT Policing has revealed it accessed metadata more than 3000 times without proper authorisation in 2015, more than the 116 times first reported.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6295461/act-police-illegally-accessed-metadata-3365-times/?cs=14225
    On Monday it looked like the furore over Christopher Pyne’s post-politics career had abated. But now it’s going to keep running for weeks.
    https://outline.com/af2HZK
    With public dissatisfaction simmering over Christopher Pyne’s and Julie Bishop’s new jobs in the private sector, a senate inquiry will investigate former ministers’ compliance with their code of conduct writes Dennis Atkins.
    https://outline.com/tYgfxv
    Barnaby Joyce has hit back at an attack from former Nationals leader John Anderson over Mr Joyce’s affair with a staffer, saying Mr Anderson is wrong to blame declining morality for political disillusionment.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6295462/barnaby-hits-back-at-anderson-over-morality-in-politics/?cs=14350
    After quite an investigation Fairfax-Lite reveals Crown casino’s links to Asian organised crime.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/crown-casino-s-links-to-asian-organised-crime-exposed-20190724-p52ahi.html
    Clive Palmer paid one dollar for Queensland Nickel when he bought it from BHP seven years before it collapsed with the loss of hundreds of jobs and owing millions, a court has heard.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jul/26/clive-palmer-paid-1-for-queensland-nickel-court-told
    And now Clive Palmer has taken ill, prompting his absence again at the Queensland Nickel collapse trial, which has also been told the billionaire businessman’s replacement expert insolvency witness is no longer available.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/queensland/2019/07/26/clive-palmer-liquidation/
    Elizabeth Farrelly opines that Sydney’s stupidest building boom was born in a bonfire of regulation. She says that at the heart of it all is a single clear cause, government refusal to govern. That’s where all fingers should point, yet they’ve pointed everywhere but.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/sydney-s-stupidest-building-boom-was-born-in-a-bonfire-of-regulation-20190725-p52aq7.html
    And now in Melbourne we have a cloud forming over what is set to become Australia’s second tallest building, with claims of loud cracking sounds and windows that no longer open.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/money/property/2019/07/26/australia-108-building-defects/
    Recent revelations that top chefs have severely underpaid staff have raised awareness of the wage theft issue, writes William Olson.
    https://independentaustralia.net/business/business-display/the-public-has-spoken-its-time-to-wage-a-war-on-wage-theft,12937
    James Pawluck gives us five solid reasons why super needs boosting to 12 per cent.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/money/superannuation/2019/07/26/super-guarantee-mckell-institute/
    Nick Miller says that Boris Johnson is about to face his first international test – Iran’s military manoeuvres.
    https://www.theage.com.au/world/europe/iran-threatens-to-test-boris-johnson-well-before-he-s-ready-20190726-p52b06.html
    Boris Johnson is uniting leave. Labour must do the same for remain writes Jonathan Freedland.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jul/26/boris-johnson-brexit-unite-leave-labour-remain
    According to The Saturday Paper Jacinda Ardern has gun law reform in her sights.
    https://outline.com/tK97Sg
    Oh dear! The $729 million knock-down and rebuild of the Sydney Football Stadium has been thrown into chaos after the NSW government said construction giant Lendlease would not complete the project.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/sydney-football-stadium-rebuild-in-chaos-as-lendlease-leaves-project-20190726-p52b7u.html
    As federal and state governments impose tougher laws to deter animal activists from trespassing on farms, there is growing concern that journalists and whistle blowers will be unable to report on unethical farming practices.
    https://outline.com/XNaUgP
    Sarah Danckert tells us how it’s gone from bad to worse for AMP since the royal commission.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/it-s-a-dumpster-fire-how-amp-s-transformational-deal-hit-the-rocks-20190725-p52arc.html
    Here’s Peter FitzSimons’ weekly sporting wrap.
    https://www.smh.com.au/sport/vial-stuff-we-mustn-t-forget-this-saga-started-with-sun-20190726-p52b0m.html
    And for today’s nomination for “Arsehole of the Week” we have for former Anglican Dean of Newcastle.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/former-newcastle-anglican-dean-found-guilty-of-sexual-assault-20190726-p52b5o.html

    Cartoon Corner

    From a busy David Rowe.




    Alan Moir and how he sees political power at the moment.

    From Matt Golding.




    Matt Davidson and the economic universe.

    Zanetti and the new bromance.

    Alan Moir and the gravy train.

    Jon Kudelka and Lawyer X.
    https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/2f8978e5b8c6bd2b23a2efe2be1a67d5?width=1024

    From the US








  12. Morning all. Thanks BK. It is hard to understate the climate crisis harming Europe now and soon the Arctic. The fact that most of the western world is not acting fast enough to stop it shows the parlously low state of political discourse around the OECD now. Collective action has plainly failed and it is time for concerned countries to tariff imports from the worst contributing nations. I really can’t tell any more where Labor is on this issue.
    https://www.theage.com.au/world/europe/europe-s-heat-wave-is-about-to-melt-the-arctic-20190727-p52bam.html

  13. Socrates says:
    Saturday, July 27, 2019 at 8:17 am

    Morning all. Thanks BK. It is hard to understate the climate crisis harming Europe now and soon the Arctic. …

    I think you might find it’s the weather that is harming Europe at the moment.

  14. taylormade

    I once made a similar grouch to John Brumby, when he was Oppo leader – why haven’t you talked about this? Surely you should comment on that! —

    This was before teh internet, so he started sending me his media releases once a month through the mail.

    There would have been at least one hundred – only one or two of which were ever reported.

    Here’s a link to Andrews’ media release page. These are only the ones he puts out. His various Ministers will put out a similar number on a daily basis – so there are hundreds of these for the media to trawl through every day —

    https://www.premier.vic.gov.au/category/media-release/

    Every now and again, as a candidate, the media would contact me about an issue and someone would bitch that I was making a fuss about a minor quibble when there were other substantive things I should be talking about. I would point out that I had sent out media releases on several subjects that week, and the media picking up on the quibble was their decision, not mine.

  15. fess

    Last night, Planet America did a hypothetical on who would win each of the main primaries.

    The problem with this kind of exercise is that no one would have predicted, this far out, that Trump would be the Republican candidate, or that Obama would be a winning choice for the Democrats.

    Indeed, the Democrats have form here – my impression is that more times than not, the Dems primaries are won by someone who is relatively unknown going in.

  16. Morning

    Much thanks BK on today’s offerings

    And to you Lizzie for linking article which relates to 60 minutes expose, which promo has been on high rotation all week!

  17. Related to Murphy’s piece on Albo. At least Labor is willing to admit they don’t yet have their program mapped out.

    Katharine Murphy @murpharoo
    ·5m
    Just for the record, I remain ready, willing and able to conduct a similar long form audio interview with
    @ScottMorrisonMP. Unfortunately, the prime minister hasn’t been available to be interviewed by me since replacing @TurnbullMalcolm last year. Pity.

  18. Lizzie

    It is funny. Every time the promo would pop on screen, I tried to rack my brain as to what possibly could rock Australia to its core.
    Now that the Age has revealed the story, I am thinking meh. It’s stuff already suspected.

  19. Victoria

    And 60 mins is still pretending an exclusive… 1 hr ago.

    60 Minutes Australia @60Mins
    EXCLUSIVE: A former employee of Crown Casino is risking her personal safety to expose the Australian gambling giant. Full story this Sunday ONLY on #60Mins.

  20. Also I might add that the story on Michael West website is far more important and disturbing in light of national security.

    Anthony Klan
    @Anthony_Klan
    The story Virgin Australia and NSW Govt desperately wanted covered up: two Chinese Communist Party-linked conglomerates are secretly in final stages of taking control of a massive military pilot training facility 300km north of Sydney
    #auspol #darwinport2

  21. Lizzie

    60 minutes did the story with the Age and SMH. I suspect it was agreed to do a write up day before program to drum up further interest.

  22. And the reason why I didn’t think the Michael West story was the 60 minutes one is obviously due to him reporting on this days ago. Oh and I don’t believe he works for the Fairfax papers these days.

  23. The Packer family casino interests are supposedly the 60 Minutes subject of allegedly numerous illegal acts, including rorting the visa system to bring Chinese ‘whales’ with dodgy backgrounds to launder their money at Crown Casino. Were their blind eyes turned to this scandal?

    In totally unrelated news:

    “The most generous personal donor to a political party last year was Roslyn Packer, the widow of billionaire Kerry Packer, who was once Australia’s richest man.

    Mrs Packer gave the Liberals $580,000 in 2012-13, beating most corporate donations to the party and dwarfing all other personal donors.

    Mrs Packer donated more than triple the amount given by the next largest donor for either political party.”

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/political-donations-roslyn-packer-tops-list-with-massive-gift-to-liberal-party-20140203-31wba.html

  24. In further unrelated news, it appears Ros Packer has set up a recurring donation to the Liberal Party of 500 large…

    “ Political disclosure returns show Roslyn Packer donated $500,000 to the Liberal Party, while confirming Malcolm Turnbull $1.75 million

    Roslyn Packer, the widow of Kerry Packer, donated $500,000 to the Liberal Party last year, disclosure returns show.

    The release from the Australian Electoral Commission also confirms Malcolm Turnbull gave his own party $1.75 million for the 2016 election campaign, as he admitted last year.

    Overall, the Liberal Party of Australia, including Queensland’s Liberal National Party, received $95.1 million in the 2016-17 financial year.

  25. [‘Another blow to Ms Trad’s image was self-delivered when she revealed she had made a personal phone call to Alan MacSporran, the head of the state’s anti-corruption watchdog, on the weekend — three days after being referred to the Crime and Corruption Commission (CCC) by the Opposition.’]

    Trad should’ve known better. And, MacSporran should’ve known better to accept her call. This, combined with the purchase of an investment property in the knowledge that its value will increase dramatically, is sufficient to see her go. Anna won’t lose any sleep, as it’s common knowledge that Jackie’s after her job.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-07-27/treasurer-jackie-trad-gabba-investment-could-be-her-undoing/11340934

  26. Crown Casino:

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/the-age-editorial-crown-needs-same-rules-not-state-jewels-20180706-p4zpz0.html

    Crown Casino, with its imposing complex on Melbourne’s Southbank, has become a giant of Victoria’s visual, political and cultural landscape. The company appears to have received preferential treatment, in terms of the way it can operate its gambling machines. Crown should play by the same rules as everyone else. But it is allowed to run as many as 1000 electronic gaming machines without being subject to the restrictions that apply to other venues.

    For reasons the government refuses to explain, ‘‘loyal’’ customers of Crown – which has paid many billions of dollars in fees to the state government over the years – have been given access to as many as 1000 poker machines that are exempt from laws to reduce problem gambling. Crown is giving gamblers swipe cards that allow them to play machines that take bigger bets and have much faster spin rates.
    :::
    Since then, the government has been metaphorically addicted to gambling revenue, including massive contributions from Crown Casino’s winnings, and many people have become addicted to punting.
    :::
    Millions of Australians wager safely and enjoyably. Harm minimisation should be the chief aim of the regulation of the industry. The exclusive treatment of Crown seems at odds with that aim. Unless the government can justify the situation, it should terminate this irresponsible exception to its own regulations.

  27. Thanks BK for a great roundup the morning.

    I’m slowly coming to the idea that Rowe is not a fan of Mr. Trump.

    New from the Poll Bludger Science Desk.

    The, until now, discredited pseudo/science of phrenology * has come roaring back as new information comes to hand. It seems that the real knowledge and research has been, until now, gazumped by the psychologist/psychiatric industry in a successful bid to deny the reality of this excellent tool its rightful place in the firmament of science.

    Here’s what you need to know (I have borrowed this intro from the new ABC BS pages). One can readily, at a glance, realize the veracity of the reading of bumps on heads by examining a couple of prominent citizens closely.

    Take Mr. ……….(name redacted to protect the guilty). The tiny bump that indicates extreme psychopathy which is located at the locus of the nexus of the cortical extension and the revetment of the Sea of Cortez on the top RH (viewed from the front of the head) has grown to gigantic proportions and cannot be surgically removed lest the compressed animosity and vindictiveness leak out and contaminate the landscape. This leakage would do extreme damage because of its half life of billions of years.
    The indicator which reveals the possessor of the bump is the wearing of caps – the smashing and mashing of beer cans on the head, the mangled incomprehensible language and the shouting – always the shouting.

    Several other notorious cases are revealed by the broad brimmed, country man style hats.

    Watch for a revelation from Everymans favourite Bullshit TV Program “A Current 59 Minutes.”

    *

    E & OE ☕

  28. Barney in Makassar @ #671 Saturday, July 27th, 2019 – 8:31 am

    I think you might find it’s the weather that is harming Europe at the moment.

    I think you might find that unusually frequent extreme weather conditions is one of the predicted consequences of climate change.

    I’m with Socrates. I think we may soon see economic sanctions against recacitrant nations (like Australia).

  29. http://www.casinoguardian.co.uk/2019/07/24/anti-gambling-campaigner-accuses-vcglr-and-victoria-police-of-corruption-regarding-crown-casino-melbourne-operations-and-licence/

    The long-time anti-gambling campaigner and independent federal MP Andrew Wilkie has shared an opinion that the failure of the Victorian gambling regulator and police to properly investigate claims of Crown Casino Melbourne’s wrongdoings hinted of an actual possibility of corruption.

    Mr Wilkie addressed the Victorian anti-corruption regulator when reminding the Parliament that since 2017 he had provided both state’s police and the Victorian Commission for Gambling and Liquor Regulation (VGLR) with evidence of illegal poker machine tampering and money laundering taking place at the Southbank casino property of Crown. According to him, the bizarre reactions of both the Victorian gambling regulator and the state’s police could be considered as grounds for him to believe in a “very real” possibility of corruption.
    :::
    Mr Wilkie questioned why it took the state’s gambling regulatory body six months to establish that the operator’s casino in Melbourne had unlawfully used a forbidden blank-button scheme to modify some of some poker machines’ buttons. It also took the regulator 15 months to find that the casino had provided its patrons with multiple loyalty cards which allowed players to use more than one poker machine at a time. The independent MP also questioned why the VCGLR needed 17 months to find that the Crown Casino Melbourne had provided patrons with branded plastic picks, encouraging them to jam the replay buttons of the machines to get automatic non-stop spins.

    Mr Wilkie shared that all of the above-mentioned delays pushed the findings of the local gambling regulatory body to after the 5-year licence review of Crown Casino Melbourne, even though the investigation findings were important to the review process. However, in August 2018, the Victorian Commission for Gambling and Liquor Regulation gave the green light to the renewal of Crown’s operating licence, despite establishing that the casino had failed to properly address gambling addiction.

    According to the independent MP, the alterations made through the button-blanking technique should have been crucial when the VCGLR made a decision that Crown is suitable to hold a casino operating licence. Instead of doing that, the gambling regulatory body delayed the investigation process to make sure that there would not be any obstructions to re-issue Crown’s licence, Mr Wilkie claims.

    All of the aforementioned facts give grounds to Mr Wilkie to believe that there is some kind of influence or interference to the decision-making process of the Victorian gambling regulator

  30. Both alcohol and gambling have infiltrated the culture of sport so comprehensively that separating them is going to require huge courage, not currently available in Oz politics.

  31. lizzie:

    [‘MacSporran sounds like a name from a comedy!’]

    Yep, worthy of Python skit. As chairman of the CCC, MacSporran has the equivalence of a supreme court judge. Accordingly, he had no option but to recuse himself from the investigation into Trad’s purchase on the basis of apprehended bias. For a QC I think he’s a bit thick.

  32. Player One says:
    Saturday, July 27, 2019 at 9:21 am

    Barney in Makassar @ #671 Saturday, July 27th, 2019 – 8:31 am

    I think you might find it’s the weather that is harming Europe at the moment.

    I think you might find that unusually frequent extreme weather conditions is one of the predicted consequences of climate change.

    I’m with Socrates. I think we may soon see economic sanctions against recacitrant nations (like Australia).

    I think you might find that the climate has no effect on the weather we receive now or in the future.

    Climate isn’t even a real thing, it’s just a man made tool to help describe the weather conditions over a period of time in the past.

  33. https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/money-is-created-by-the-banks-not-the-government-20190725-p52at7.html

    As Emma Doherty, Ben Jackman and Emily Perry explained in the Reserve Bank’s Bulletin last year, money is created when banks make loans.

    This is precisely correct. The creation of loans creates spending power – money – in the hands of the borrower. A liability is created in the customer account and an asset is created in the bank’s account, reflecting the loan. When the money is spent by the borrower it will show up us a deposit into the banking system…as an asset of the recipient of the money and a liability of the recipient’s bank. The creation of an asset in one part of the banking system gives rise to a liability elsewhere in the system. Banks create financial assets and liabilities. They create money.

  34. Morning all. I’m going way off topic, and I’m taking a liberty, with your indulgence. Pace.

    For any Sydney bludgers who are interested in music and voice, Benjamin Britten’s Peter Grimes is having its second and final run tonight at the SOH.

    I think it is a masterwork, based on a poem by George Crabbe, wherein a fisherman in a small English coastal village in driven to his death by his own inadequacies, misfortune, gossip swirling around abuse of missing apprentice boys, and difference, and judgement. It is a story of any time, and our time.

    Britten’s music is at its most lyrical, not the difficult impenetrable stuff many associate with him, of sunlight and gulls on waves, moonlight, crashing storms (especially in the thundering chorus), church bells and Sunday mornings, and angry lynch mobs marching to the beat of a judgemental drum.

    The main character singer is a shire boy, Stuart Skelton, the leading exponent of the role in the world, alongside an absolutely stellar international cast mostly of locals, save an outstanding American baritone. Limelight review is here.

    I hear those voices that will not be drowned

    What harbour shelters peace

    Who can turn skies back and start again

    (disclaimer: I know some of the cast, have been to the rehearsal and the first night, and am unashamedly in awe of the work and this performance – the Sydney Symphony Orchestra is superlative and up onstage, the details are so exposed and beautifully lucid)

  35. I suspect Sydney can out-do Melbourne’s upstart Packer Casino dodginess – learn from the Rum Rebellion pros.

    The lengthy consultative process to revamp the old Hungry Mile wharves at Darling Harbour was usurped in 2012 by the Liberal Barry ‘Grange on the Doorstep’ O’Farrell Government in 2012 – when Lo and behold, who should pop up with an unsolicited billion dollar bid to annex the land and build a mega casino than James Packer. The Liberals rolled over and gave it to him.

    No tender, probity checks to be done post decision, nobody else given any say, no reference to the 500 large coming into the Liberal Party coffers. And no reference to ICAC.

    “In a statement, Mr Packer said he was “humbled” by the government’s decision.

    “Sydney is one of the world’s great cities,” he said. “It deserves one of the world’s great hotels. I am going to do everything I can to try and make Crown Sydney the best hotel in the world.”

    He said Crown believed the development would “help attract Asian high net worth travellers to Sydney, in particular from China”.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/nsw-gives-green-light-to-packer-casino-at-barangaroo-20131111-2xc9m.html

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