Essential Research leadership polling

The second set of leadership ratings since the election is featured in the latest release from Essential Research, which may also offer a hint of how it plans to respond to the great pollster failure.

The fortnightly Essential Research release is the second since the election to encompass the monthly leadership ratings. These offer positive signs for Anthony Albanese, who is up four from his debut on approval to 39% and down one on disapproval to 24%, while Scott Morrison is slightly improved in net terms, with approval steady on 48% and disapproval down two to 34%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is effectively unchanged, shifting from 43-25 to 44-26. The poll also features a series of questions on the ban on tourists climbing Uluru, which 44% support and 30% oppose, and 69% professing awareness of the issue.

Of particular interest in this release is the revelation that Essential is inquiring about respondents’ income, which appears to be a new development. The only detail provided in the polling results is that Morrison has 59% approval among higher income earners, but the appendices go to the trouble of telling us that Essential has set three income cohorts for its surveys: low (below $52,000), high (above $104,000) and medium (in between).

I suspect this means Essential’s response to the pollster failure will be to start using income to weight its results. This is a departure from the Australian industry norm of weighting only by geography, gender and age, and would also seem to be a bit unusual internationally. An American pollster noted last year the practice had fallen out of favour there due to the high non-response rate to questions on personal income. The preference is to instead weight to other factors which themselves correlate with income, notably education and, particularly in Britain, social class.

The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1091. In the Guardian report accompanying the poll, the elephant in the room was addressed thus:

There has been controversy post-election about the reliability of opinion polling because none of the major surveys – Newspoll, Ipsos, Galaxy or Essential – correctly predicted a Coalition win on 18 May, projecting Labor in front on a two-party preferred vote of 51-49 and 52-48. The lack of precision in the polling has prompted public reflection at Essential, as has been flagged by its executive director, Peter Lewis. Guardian Australia is not currently publishing measurements of primary votes or a two-party preferred calculation, but is continuing to publish survey results of responses to questions about the leaders and policy issues.

Also in The Guardian today are results from a separate Essential Research poll, this one for Digital Rights Watch concerning recent police raids on journalists. In response to a question noting raids on “the offices and homes of News Corp and ABC journalists who reported on national security issues”, 40% said they were very concerned, 34% slightly concerned and 26% not concerned. Similar results were produced on questions relating to metadata and police powers to break into online communications systems. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1089.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

819 comments on “Essential Research leadership polling”

  1. It is also what Labor had war-gamed occurring. I guess they should have come out for the jobs before the election, then, after the election, when it fell over, just shrugged their shoulders. Because they would have done better in Queensland! More likely then to have been in government.
    ————————————–

    What a load of revisionist BS from a usual suspect

    Labor couldn’t run across the chamber with their tails between their legs fast enough, to boost the carbon bomb of the Galilee basin and try to appease their LNP masters curses after the election.

    If this is true that Adani can’t finance it’s mine, primarily because of the ongoing campaign by the Stop Adani campaign, MarketForces, the Greens and other groups, over years, Then Adani would probably be waltzing in and doing it all with the Lib?lab duopoly support and taxpayesr money. All with the Lib/Lab parties trumpeting how good it all is.

    So are we to see the ALP show it’s true colours and now support a senate motion against the opening of the Galilee basin.
    Or will we see them quietly slink back into the chamber and see what else they can do with their Coal-ition partners in the LNP, Nats and PHON, to see the Galilee carbon bomb released anyway?

  2. What a load of revisionist BS from a usual suspect

    Predictable insult from a usual suspect. Haven’t had enough Chamomile Tea this morning, Quoll? 😀

  3. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-07-26/oliver-yates-challenge-kooyong-election-result-josh-frydenberg/11350472

    Oliver Yates has told the ABC he plans to officially petition the High Court in coming days, sitting as the Court of Disputed Returns, to examine the outcome in the Melbourne seat of Kooyong.
    :::
    Labor had foreshadowed it would challenge the result in the neighbouring seat of Chisholm, based on Chinese-language campaign material posted on social media platform WeChat.
    :::
    Labor has yet to follow through on its threat.

  4. Z

    And the ‘cash in hand’ one off payments, so beloved by Howard, were vote buyers. As it was a lump sum, rather than a weekly dribble, people tended to use it for a big item spend – and remember, every time they sat down, that John Howard had bought them that sofa, or that TV…

    Completely agree.

  5. It is also what Labor had war-gamed occurring.

    It’s a pity Labor hadn’t “war-gamed” a winning electoral strategy.

    But then the hubris pre-election was all about what a master tactician Shorten was.

  6. Shorten was only ever good internally, when he could twist arms and use numbers in his factional plays. The public preferred a buffoon like Morrison over him.

  7. Labor has yet to follow through on its threat.

    That would involve inviting harsh criticism from the Coalition. So of course they won’t be doing that. 🙂

  8. I don’t know what this was about, but it sounds pretty normal.

    [Katharine Murphy
    @murpharoo
    ·
    3h
    It really is ridiculous to hold press conferences when the reporters attending have not had an opportunity to read the report triggering the press conferences. Happens regularly. Deeply suboptimal.]

  9. I did notice this in a recent news report:

    “Ever sensitive about his portrayal in the media, Shorten was unhappy about a line in PVO’s news bulletin in which he asked whether Labor really wanted Shorten asking questions in Question Time.”

    Wow. Imagine John Howard being ‘ever sensitive about his portrayal in the media’. Howard might never have emerged from his bed. Let’s hope Bill doesn’t read any of my criticisms about him. It might trigger a full on nervous breakdown.

  10. If this is true that Adani can’t finance it’s mine, primarily because of the ongoing campaign by the Stop Adani campaign, MarketForces, the Greens and other groups, over years, Then Adani would probably be waltzing in and doing it all with the Lib?lab duopoly support and taxpayesr money. All with the Lib/Lab parties trumpeting how good it all is.

    Indeed. To suggest otherwise is revisionist claptrap.

  11. “Indeed. To suggest otherwise is revisionist claptrap.”

    Except for the facts that the location, quantity and quality coal deposits in the Galilee have been a known known for at least four decades, as have the the logistical hurdles faced in their extraction, transport and commercial fungibilty. But yep. It is The Greens wot stopped it. Of course. Magical horses especially.

  12. GG

    I watched the youtube video you supplied yesterday (?) of Shorten in parliament. He sounded and looked like he was just going through the motions. Sad.

  13. The ACCC’s 23 recommendations to fight Google, Facebook

    The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission’s final report, led by chairman Rod Sims, identified “many adverse effects” flowing from the market dominance of Google and Facebook.

    “We believe continuing scrutiny is necessary given the critical position that digital platforms occupy in the digital economy,” Mr Sims said.

    “The dominant digital platforms’ response to the issues we have raised might best be described as ‘trust us’,” Mr Sims said.

    Treasurer Josh Frydenberg said the government has accepted the ACCC’s overriding conclusion: that consumers need to be protected and that Google and Facebook must not break competition laws.

    But the only recommendation the government has accepted outright is the ACCC’s call for a special branch within the regulator to proactively investigate, monitor and enforce issues of monopoly power and breaches of privacy law.

    https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/the-accc-s-23-recommendations-to-fight-google-facebook-20190717-p52874

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-07-26/government-threaten-google-facebook-with-digital-regulation/11348858

  14. “You are suggesting something no one suggested. But’s that’s your thing.”

    Other just about every independent mining engineer, mining economist, geologist and other field expert I’ve heard interviewed about the potential cornucopia of opening up The Galilee to mining over the past 20 years you are 100% correct.

  15. Today’s email from Market Forces:

    Yesterday afternoon, in response to a shareholder resolution lodged by Market Forces, Suncorp revealed that it is dumping thermal coal for good!

    Suncorp’s exact words were: “Suncorp does not directly invest in, finance or underwrite new thermal coal mining extraction projects, or new thermal coal electricity generation, and we will phase out these exposures by 2025”.

    This is a new stance, and very positive. However, the resolution called on Suncorp to get out of all fossil fuels, so they need to be reminded to finish the job!

    Please congratulate Suncorp, and ask it to also phase out its oil and gas exposure.

    Suncorp’s shift out of coal means that there is now not one single major Australian insurance company willing to insure new thermal coal projects. That’s right, not one!

    And with Suncorp phasing out its entire coal business by 2025, and QBE doing the same by 2030, any climate-wrecking coal-burning power station hoping to keep running past 2030 will find its options for insurance seriously restricted.

    So well done to everyone who wrote to Suncorp, leafletted staff outside their offices and the shareholders who are supporting our resolution. We are succeeding in shifting the entire Australian insurance sector away from coal!

    Now please take a moment to thank Suncorp and ask it to finish the job by dumping dirty oil and gas too.

    Onwards!

  16. Quoll
    “If this is true that Adani can’t finance it’s mine, primarily because of the ongoing campaign by the Stop Adani campaign, MarketForces, the Greens and other groups, over years, ”

    Even by Greens standards, this is a howler. Stop Adani etc were about as effective as a chocolate teapot.

  17. Stop Adani is not a Greens party initiative or driven by the Greens party.

    https://www.stopadani.com/about

    We are a growing grassroots movement of local action groups right across the country, all working to stop Adani’s disastrous plans for a dirty new coal mine from going ahead.

    We are building the biggest environmental movement in Australia’s history.

  18. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-07-26/france2-hugo-clement-unfair-press-arrest-adani-protest/11350520

    “Obviously we will talk about our arrests in the documentary and we will talk about Adani in the documentary — I think more than we were planning to do at the beginning.

    “I think these arrests say that there is a problem, there is something Adani wants to hide, and there is something that maybe the Government too wants to hide.

    “If everything is OK and there isn’t a problem, then why do you want to arrest journalists?”

    Mr Clement’s 90-minute documentary for national broadcaster France2 is expected to air later this year.

    He said it was originally intended to be French-language only, however there were now moves to translate it into English after a strong international reaction to his arrest.

    “A lot of people didn’t understand why, and a lot of people were surprised to see this kind of thing in a country like Australia because I think everyone thinks that Australia is a democratic country, so we can do our job without any problem,” he said.

    “These charges were unfair, as was the arrest, as were the bail conditions — I think it was an attack on the freedom of the press.

  19. Pegasus
    “Stop Adani is not a Greens party initiative or driven by the Greens party.”

    Sorry, I assumed it was a Greens initiative, simply because it was so sanctimonious and ineffective.

  20. “What do you propose people opposed to the mine do that would be less sanctimonious and more effective at stopping it?”

    The backbench revolt that led Annistasia P And Jackie T to rule out public funding of any aspect of the project; plus the failure of Canavan to get cabinet to agree to finance the railway were probably decisive.

    Once the incoming Modi government said to Adani several years ago that it gave zero fucks about whether the new Indian coal fired power stations were fuel by Galilee coal or coal sourced elsewhere then the project was precarious.

    Ultimately, if the story of the projects demise are true, it will because the existing economic fundamentals pertaining to the Galilee have reasserted themselves.

  21. “This is just the start of, the Victorian taxpayer footing the bill of one of the greatest criminal justice scandals ever:

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-07-26/faruk-orman-walks-free-over-lawyer-x-scandal/11348676”

    It seems like a rerun of that Batman movie where the courts let out all the crooks that Batman had nabbed because of his excessive conduct.

    “Underbelly Redux. Now it’s personal”

    I wonder what the body count will be like in 5 years time …

    Thank goodness Bleak City has culture, hey naff?

  22. Andrew_Earlwood @ #535 Friday, July 26th, 2019 – 3:20 pm

    The backbench revolt that led Annistasia P And Jackie T to rule out public funding of any aspect of the project; plus the failure of Canavan to get cabinet to agree to finance the railway were probably decisive.

    Well sure, but for most ordinary people staging a backbench revolt is well and truly out of reach. Being too incompetent to even convince Cabinet to finance stuff the party ostensibly supports may not be, but actually getting the opportunity to do so definitely would be. 🙂

  23. C@t

    I agree about Adana. During the election and last year’s by-elections, everyone seemed to forget that Adana had 5 years of financial problems as they tried to finance the spewing hole, all around the globe.

    Labor strategy (we’ll apply the law) was all in the knowledge that the probability of Adani falling over for a range of financial reasons was very high. They were correct.

  24. Psyclaw @ #542 Friday, July 26th, 2019 – 3:35 pm

    C@t

    I agree about Adana. During the election and last year’s by-elections, everyone seemed to forget that Adana had 5 years of financial problems as they tried to finance the spewing hole, all around the globe.

    Labor strategy (we’ll apply the law) was all in the knowledge that the probability of Adani falling over for a range of financial reasons was very high. They were correct.

    Labors strategy was simply to gather splinters in the backsides while saying different things to southerners and northerners.

  25. Thank goodness Bleak City has culture, hey naff?
    ________________________
    Yes and part of that culture is a fully functioning underworld with a rich history. Melbourne crooks were always superior to Sydney crooks, who were largely hoons and police informers. As Chopper Read said:

    “I don’t know why Sydney crooks don’t stick to what they know best, pimping for whores and selling drugs to kids. Every time you see a Sydney crook on television, he is either lying in the street after being killed by an imported Melbourne hitman, or giving Crown evidence against some poor bastard.”

  26. Whaht!?! And they say Labor are running away from their pre-election positions at a million miles per hour!

    Pegasus
    “Stop Adani is not a Greens party initiative or driven by the Greens party.”

  27. Can anyone suggest why it was in the last election here that the LNP hammered the “Bill we can’t afford” as a jibe at Shorten and Labor’s modest reform proposals, yet over in the Old Dart, Bojo is talking about spending squillions of quids on making Britain Grate again?
    How come when Labor has costed policy proposals this is seen as a total waste of taxpayer money, but when the conservatives do the same thing, it is ‘nation building’ or some such tripe?
    Point of evidence – the Alice Springs-Darwin rail line. No Cost-Benefit analysis (the love of the fiscal conservatives), and millions spent on a line which will never make a cent of profit – all in the name of ‘nation building’ one supposes…………………………

  28. nath
    says:
    Friday, July 26, 2019 at 3:45 pm
    Of course the Sydney criminals were always being outdone by the Sydney cops. Who could beat that lot at criminality?
    _________________
    Although the NSW ALP would come a close second. 🙂

  29. “Labors strategy was simply to gather splinters in the backsides while saying different things to southerners and northerners.”

    Welcome sexy Rexy. This afternoon’s Verde Merde crew is now complete.

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