Essential Research leadership polling

The second set of leadership ratings since the election is featured in the latest release from Essential Research, which may also offer a hint of how it plans to respond to the great pollster failure.

The fortnightly Essential Research release is the second since the election to encompass the monthly leadership ratings. These offer positive signs for Anthony Albanese, who is up four from his debut on approval to 39% and down one on disapproval to 24%, while Scott Morrison is slightly improved in net terms, with approval steady on 48% and disapproval down two to 34%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is effectively unchanged, shifting from 43-25 to 44-26. The poll also features a series of questions on the ban on tourists climbing Uluru, which 44% support and 30% oppose, and 69% professing awareness of the issue.

Of particular interest in this release is the revelation that Essential is inquiring about respondents’ income, which appears to be a new development. The only detail provided in the polling results is that Morrison has 59% approval among higher income earners, but the appendices go to the trouble of telling us that Essential has set three income cohorts for its surveys: low (below $52,000), high (above $104,000) and medium (in between).

I suspect this means Essential’s response to the pollster failure will be to start using income to weight its results. This is a departure from the Australian industry norm of weighting only by geography, gender and age, and would also seem to be a bit unusual internationally. An American pollster noted last year the practice had fallen out of favour there due to the high non-response rate to questions on personal income. The preference is to instead weight to other factors which themselves correlate with income, notably education and, particularly in Britain, social class.

The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1091. In the Guardian report accompanying the poll, the elephant in the room was addressed thus:

There has been controversy post-election about the reliability of opinion polling because none of the major surveys – Newspoll, Ipsos, Galaxy or Essential – correctly predicted a Coalition win on 18 May, projecting Labor in front on a two-party preferred vote of 51-49 and 52-48. The lack of precision in the polling has prompted public reflection at Essential, as has been flagged by its executive director, Peter Lewis. Guardian Australia is not currently publishing measurements of primary votes or a two-party preferred calculation, but is continuing to publish survey results of responses to questions about the leaders and policy issues.

Also in The Guardian today are results from a separate Essential Research poll, this one for Digital Rights Watch concerning recent police raids on journalists. In response to a question noting raids on “the offices and homes of News Corp and ABC journalists who reported on national security issues”, 40% said they were very concerned, 34% slightly concerned and 26% not concerned. Similar results were produced on questions relating to metadata and police powers to break into online communications systems. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1089.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

819 comments on “Essential Research leadership polling”

  1. C@t
    that article by Cohn in NYT is giving me a headache.

    In other words, most measures suggest that the president’s rating is higher than 47.1 percent in Wisconsin. If you excluded the Votecast data and added the final Marquette poll, the president’s approval rating would rise to 47.6 percent — or a net 4.2 points higher than his nationwide approval…. It is important to emphasize that it is impossible to nail down the president’s standing in Wisconsin, or any state, with precision.

    The preceding stuff that coagulates his “most measures” is a hard to follow. He seems to ignore the recent and repeated Head to Head Biden V Trump polls that give Biden a 10pt lead in the rust belt. Which matches his national head to head lead. As Biden is a well known figure I give these early head to heads some cred in assessing Trumps chances there (not is assessing who should be the dem candidate at this stage)

    Sure, by all means be cautious. By all means be aware Trump can (definitely) win in 2020. But using that article to give up on the rust belt is a step too far.

  2. Nicholas
    “Boris Johnson should forget about getting a better Brexit deal – it is obvious that the EU is not disposed to offer one. He should implement a fiscal expansion to massively improve public services and infrastructure in the UK.”

    Ummm… are you perhaps confusing Boris Johnson with Jeremy Corbyn?

  3. C@t: as I said, its all about framing the debate. An abstention tactic, in combination with a ‘tax cut now’ tactic with Albo using his Ch9 soapbox to explain both and put the acid back onto Dutto can frame that debate. At the moment Labor appears to be run down by all passing traffic. It needs to start framing the debate.

  4. Andrew_Earlwood @ #448 Friday, July 26th, 2019 – 11:21 am

    “Boris Johnson should forget about getting a better Brexit deal – it is obvious that the EU is not disposed to offer one. He should implement a fiscal expansion to massively improve public services and infrastructure in the UK. That is something that he has control over. If he gets that right, the EU will be a distant and irrelevant memory.”

    Do you spend a lot of your time fantasising about some parallel universe where even proven villains and fraudsters like Alexander Kemal are woke to your MMT edicts? As if he, or his rump of a party, would do anything other than austerity in the face of looming economic disaster.

    You’ve got to remember that Nicholas doesn’t think countries can ever go broke.

    I say this in the context of the information that Bloomberg saw fit to mention last week that Trump is itching to appoint a woman to the Federal Reserve Board, to take over as Chairman when he forces the current Chair out, who believes in reverting to the Gold Standard!

    Hang onto your hats if that happens!

    How much Gold does the UK have in Reserve again?

  5. Andrew_Earlwood @ #453 Friday, July 26th, 2019 – 11:35 am

    C@t: as I said, its all about framing the debate. An abstention tactic, in combination with a ‘tax cut now’ tactic with Albo using his Ch9 soapbox to explain both and put the acid back onto Dutto can frame that debate. At the moment Labor appears to be run down by all passing traffic. It needs to start framing the debate.

    Nope. Nope. Nope. 🙂

    The Coalition would be framing their corflutes happily, in the way that I have outlined, for the next election as a result. The Low Information voter would take the Coalition’s message to the ballot box.

    Hardly anyone watches Today. They all watch Sunrise. And I know which particular message would come through loud and clear there.

  6. Andrew_Earlwood @ #450 Friday, July 26th, 2019 – 11:31 am

    “he thinks Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Florida have gone further Right since 2016”

    That’s my fear as well. However, if jobs and wages are still depressed in the areas where the Obama voters reside then their significant numbers advantage will be telling if the democrats can actually motivate them off the couch and into a voting booth in sufficient numbers.

    Jobs and wages are depressed now. They haven’t gone up worth a damn as a result of Trump’s tax cuts. It’s why Trump is going to run an Anti Immigrant, White Grievance election. They will vote for that.

  7. a r @ #444 Friday, July 26th, 2019 – 11:15 am

    We had that debate at our meeting this week and essentially concluded that the Coalition would just go, ‘Back at you!’ and equate abstaining with not wanting to vote FOR tax cuts for the Working Poor and Middle Class High Vis wearers.

    They’ll do that anyways, regardless of whether Labor opposes, abstains, or supports the tax cuts. You can’t assume the Coalition will play fair or reasonably or even truthfully. Or that anyone in the media will call them out on it.

    Exackerly.

  8. “You’ve got to remember that Nicholas doesn’t think countries can ever go broke.”

    AS I understand it MMT believes that the true limit on a sovereign currency issuing government to run an expansionary fiscal policy is the net productivity of that Nation’s economy. The problem I perceive in the British Government running such expansionary policies post Brexit (especially a ‘pure’ Brexit) is that is by no means assured that ‘little Britain’ will have enough domestic capacity to feed, house or cloth any more than about 35 million out of its 66 million population.

    In fact, without either a global empire or having a purpose as a segue between the continent and North America I suspect the real question that looms is: what is the point to the United Kingdom continuing to even exist?

  9. “Jobs and wages are depressed now. They haven’t gone up worth a damn as a result of Trump’s tax cuts. It’s why Trump is going to run an Anti Immigrant, White Grievance election. They will vote for that.”

    A lot of the stay at home missing Obama voters in the urban rust belt were black males. Many other missing voters were millennials – who turned out at less than 55% of eligibility rates. I also don’t think the rest were attracted to White Greivance politics – but THAT played bigly in rural areas and still does.

  10. “The Coalition would be framing their corflutes happily,”

    By the time the corflutes came out, under my strategy (if it works) Labor would have won the propaganda war on social media: the corflutes would then be a source of ridicule. Propaganda only works IF you get to frame the debate first.

  11. “Hardly anyone watches Today. They all watch Sunrise. And I know which particular message would come through loud and clear there.”

    Two points:

    1. Albo needs to invite himself onto Sunrise as much as possible to peddle the same message as well.

    2. You are missing the point about Albo’s Today soapbox. Today is the flagship show of what is now Australia’s first vertically integrated media conglomerate. What is said FIRST on Today is then repeated throughout the day on all of Ch.9’s other platforms – including in the SMH/Age, on Macquarie Radio and then again on the evening news. Along the way it is picked up by other media outfits, like ‘our’ ABC. Sometimes even by competitors to Ch.9.

  12. Pegasus @ #421 Friday, July 26th, 2019 – 10:18 am

    Annabel Crabbe

    “From tax cuts to travel bans, a legislative pattern seems to be emerging in this 46th Parliament: the Coalition introduces legislation designed to vex the Opposition, the Opposition protests, and then passes the laws anyway.”

    As I hoped early on, Labor covers it’s arse then lets Scrotty do what he wants.
    Enough rope.

  13. Ah, but there’s the rub, A_E, our Low Interest/Low Information voter doesn’t listen to Labor for 3 years between elections, just absorbing by osmosis a sort of vibe. Then, when the election is called they start tuning in.

    As we have found out, ~30% of them make their mind up on the day as they walk in to cast their vote. They look around at the bunting and corflutes as they wait in line, remember a few ads they’ve seen, think about what their mates at work ‘who know a bit about politics’ have said to them and off they go.

    THAT is when and where Labor have to make their mark. Voting shenanigans will just be used against them by the Coalition. And so the people that decide elections will be suckered into voting for the Coalition again.

    Better for Labor to lie in wait for the economy to tank and the Recession to occur on the Coalition’s watch, I reckon. As that article I put up earlier today has predicted might just be on the cards. Then it becomes very easy to attack a wounded Coalition, who will find it very hard to blame Labor for that.

    Tradies losing their jobs. Even a Low Information voter can understand that.

  14. As if he, or his rump of a party, would do anything other than austerity in the face of looming economic disaster.

    Boris Johnson has few if any ideological commitments or policy commitments. He is the very opposite of a conviction politician. We don’t really know what he is going to do. He may not know himself. Furthermore, being in office with the power to enact large improvements in people’s lives can change a person’s perspective on the merits of austerity.

  15. The UK Government issues its own currency, lets its currency float in foreign exchange markets, and doesn’t have debts denominated in foreign currencies. This makes it monetarily sovereign. The constraint on its spending is the availability of real goods and services that are for sale in its currency. It has no financial constraint when it spends in its own currency.

  16. Today is the flagship show of what is now Australia’s first vertically integrated media conglomerate. What is said FIRST on Today is then repeated throughout the day on all of Ch.9’s other platforms – including in the SMH/Age, on Macquarie Radio and then again on the evening news.

    Do you know this for a fact, A_E? I subscribe to the smh and I don’t think I’ve seen the Albanese/Dutton segment up there on a regular basis, only if something controversial occurs.

  17. Nicholas,
    Boris Johnson is a Tory. He’s not Jeremy Corbyn. He won’t be doing any of that ‘Socialist’ policy stuff. He has chosen a Hard Right Cabinet. They won’t let him. He doesn’t want to.

  18. They can easily get rid of trump, by technicality
    Make America great slogan is treasonous
    Trump is the president of the United States , not the president of America
    America is more than the United States , America is also Canada , Mexico . Brazil ,Argentina and many other American countries.
    Donald Trump birth certificate and passport would show he is citizen of the United States, not a citizen of America

  19. “Low Interest/Low Information voter doesn’t listen to Labor for 3 years between elections, just absorbing by osmosis a sort of vibe. Then, when the election is called they start tuning in.”

    They notice a tax cut though. Whenever it is announced. THAT has the benefit of cutting through the static between elections. It is exactly the kind of trick that can be repeated with frequency. It’s all about building ‘the wall of sound’. We cant leave that task to the last minute. Start building the vibe now.

  20. “Do you know this for a fact, A_E? I subscribe to the smh and I don’t think I’ve seen the Albanese/Dutton segment up there on a regular basis, only if something controversial occurs.”

    As a SMH online subscriber I have notice a dramatic increase in Ch.9 snippets being published on the SMH page, including especially Today segments. Just my observation though.

    I barely flick through dead tree editions of newspapers these days, so I cant comment much save for noting just how reduced in size the SMH is these days: A tabloid with far fewer printed pages than even the Turd.

  21. My Chambers office junior worked full time on the Robertson campaign C@t. I’m sure you know her. She reports that the biggest talking point in doorknocking the electorate in the last 10 days was “labor’s death tax”. That message could have only sunk through via social media. Nothing to do with a feckless 30% turning up on the day, looking at the bunting and corflutes and saying ‘yep. ScoMo’. At best/worst the corflutes and bunting simply reinforced a message that had already sunk in.

  22. “AE and Cat – thought provoking discussion, I’m enjoying it.”

    Thanks. Beats the shit out of Pegarex’s repeated screeds don’t it. Who would have thought it: a fair dinkum debate without snark or posturing …

  23. BoofJo has announced tax cuts for them as what as.

    BoofJo has announced a suite of spending promises that might be costed at anything between 30 and 100 billion quid a year. Neither the costings nor the fundings have been identified.

    BoofJo has announced that he is making Britain grate again.

    BoofJo has been reticent, but some of his key backers have not been silent, on the need to cruel the workers and the environment.

    BoofJo has announced that the Irish Border will be both hard and soft by way of unspecified and somewhat mysterious ‘facilitations’.

    MMT or no, there are no constraints on the old BoofJo Magic Money Tree.

  24. Can this be true?

    Gary Rockliff @dapper_sir
    ·
    2m
    #BreakingNews #Adani set to announce that they will not be going ahead with #Carmichael mine. Adani have been unable to secure the multiple insurers it requires to underwrite the future of the mine and railway line. Engineering companies are also bypassing them #Adani is dead.

  25. KEY POINTS

    South Australian Treasurer Rob Lucas has ruled out any privatisation of the state’s water utility, SA Water, as he promised water bills for households and businesses across the state would drop from mid-2020 after an independent report found the previous Labor government over-inflated asset values.

    (SA Treasurer Rob Lucas says an inquiry found the former Labor government inflated the value of SA Water in order to generate more revenue. AAP)

    Mr Lucas said there would be no privatisation of SA Water, and that position had not changed from one reached by the state Liberal Party prior to the state election of March 2018 which ended 16 years of Labor government after the victory by Premier Steven Marshall.

    https://www.afr.com/business/infrastructure/water/sa-treasurer-rules-out-privatisation-of-sa-water-20190724-p52a6y

  26. lizzie @ #476 Friday, July 26th, 2019 – 12:34 pm

    Can this be true?

    Gary Rockliff @dapper_sir
    ·
    2m
    #BreakingNews #Adani set to announce that they will not be going ahead with #Carmichael mine. Adani have been unable to secure the multiple insurers it requires to underwrite the future of the mine and railway line. Engineering companies are also bypassing them #Adani is dead.

    I read as much yesterday.

    And it all happened without any effect from the ‘Stop Adani Convoy’ and those bloody earrings! 😡

    It is also what Labor had war-gamed occurring. I guess they should have come out for the jobs before the election, then, after the election, when it fell over, just shrugged their shoulders. Because they would have done better in Queensland! More likely then to have been in government.

    ‘Coulda, Woulda, Shoulda’, and all that though.

    Now, however, the ball is in Morrison and Canavan’s court. Will they indemnify the Carmichael Coal Mine(s), or not?

  27. C@tmomma says:
    Friday, July 26, 2019 at 11:40 am

    Andrew_Earlwood @ #450 Friday, July 26th, 2019 – 11:31 am

    “he thinks Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Florida have gone further Right since 2016”

    That’s my fear as well. However, if jobs and wages are still depressed in the areas where the Obama voters reside then their significant numbers advantage will be telling if the democrats can actually motivate them off the couch and into a voting booth in sufficient numbers.

    Jobs and wages are depressed now. They haven’t gone up worth a damn as a result of Trump’s tax cuts. It’s why Trump is going to run an Anti Immigrant, White Grievance election. They will vote for that.
    —————————————–
    The official U.S wage growth and jobs data shows they are not currently depressed, the data shows wages growing more strongly than in nearly any other western economy and the unemployment rate is at near record lows. Where Trump’s tax cuts failed to delivered was to provide a prolong boost to GDP number and to earnings growth.

  28. Tradies losing their jobs. Even a Low Information voter can understand that.

    Tradies wont lose their jobs. Nor their good pay.
    They got their tool kits. They have had various incentives to keep the construction bubble going. Now they will get construction stimulus packages. The Libs in SA have already getting stuck into it – copying the ALP package they once derided. Expect more. They will be building white elephants at a recently cleared greenfields site at a piece of native bush near you.

  29. The official U.S wage growth and jobs data shows they are not currently depressed, the data shows wages growing more strongly than in nearly any other western economy and the unemployment rate is at near record lows.

    Doesn’t have to do that well to beat most of the rest though, Mexican. However, looking at the global figures it seems as though the Left Wing government of Spain is doing the best at 4.62%. There are two, Canada and the UK, around the same level as the US. The rest are lower to negative:

    https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/wage-growth

    But what I’m talking about is this:

    Rising wage inequality and sluggish hourly wage growth for the vast majority of workers have been defining features of the American labor market for nearly four decades, despite steady productivity growth. The U.S. economy of the last several years has been no exception. Although the unemployment rate continued to fall and participation in the labor market continued to grow over the last year, most workers are experiencing moderate wage growth and even workers who have seen more significant gains are just making up ground lost during the Great Recession and slow recovery rather than getting ahead.

    …The data show not only rising inequality in general, but also the persistence, and in some cases worsening, of wage gaps by gender and race. What also stands out in this last year of data is that, while wages are growing for most workers, wage growth continues to be slower than would be expected in an economy with relatively low unemployment.

    https://www.epi.org/publication/state-of-american-wages-2018/

  30. Where Trump’s tax cuts failed…

    Seems they failed across the board. Not to mention the debt it will bring.

    Five Good Reasons It Doesn’t Feel Like The Trump Tax Cut Benefited You

    Forbes April 2019

    Workers barely benefited from Trump’s sweeping tax cut

    Centre for Public Integrity and The Guardian April 2019

    Trump tax cuts did little to boost economic growth in 2018, study says

    CNBC and the nonpartisan Congressional Research Service. May 2019

    Trump Gave Americans a Massive Tax Cut. Few Are Noticing

    Time. April 2019

    The Trump tax cuts are failing badly

    Washington Post

    Trump’s Tax Cuts Failed to Deliver

    Bloomberg June 2019

  31. C@tmomma
    inequality has risen in part because of the stock market and how narrow share ownership is in the U.S compared to here, and the issue of wage growth compared to where the unemployment rate is touches on the broader debate about what is the full employment rate because the U.S seems to still have substantial labour market slack, also its participation rate hasn’t moved much from the low 60s, which makes the unemployment rate look a little better than it would look if the Americans had Australia’s participation rate of around 66%.

  32. Simon Katich
    Hardly a surprise really, supply side economics without taking demand into account has repeatable under delivered then Trump goes and starts trade wars.

  33. Didn’t Frydenburg say he wasn’t going to do Infrastructure?

    Why would you believe anything that comes out of his mouth?
    It wont necessarily be infrastructure. It will be residential/commercial. The LNP cant afford to piss off tradies, the PCA and MBA etc. Besides, spending money on them will mean less for other services – which only helps their greater aims.

  34. Yup, it’s the Trade War that has roiled the markets. I would add the little contretemps in the Straits of Hormuz as well.

  35. SK,
    I can only see Public Housing or Public Transport being the 2 areas that a federal government could invest in, and then they are sort of State areas of responsibility.

    Maybe the Inland Rail could get a kick off. Or a new rail line to the Galillee Basin and attendant Coal-Fired Power Station? 😉

  36. A tax cut in the hand is worthless as a vote winner. The receiver looks at their payslip, grunts, and then forgets about it.

    Promising tax cuts, on the other hand, seems to be a Bright Shiny Thing.

    And the ‘cash in hand’ one off payments, so beloved by Howard, were vote buyers. As it was a lump sum, rather than a weekly dribble, people tended to use it for a big item spend – and remember, every time they sat down, that John Howard had bought them that sofa, or that TV…

  37. I can only see Public Housing or Public Transport being the 2 areas that a federal government could invest in,

    1st home owner grants, further tax concessions for property investors, cofunding state projects, opening up crown land for public/private development projects (ie, giving public land and subsequent profits to LNP developer mates for nix).

  38. Wholly MOFO. A double shot of ristretto and I take over the blog (while doing 5 other things).

    I need some fresh air.

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