In case you were wondering, The Australian reported on Monday that the first Newspoll since the election – indeed, the first poll on voting intention of any kind since the election, unless someone else quickly gets in first – will be published “very shortly”.
In the meantime, I offer what will be the first in a series of posts that probe deep into the results of the federal election region by region, starting with Sydney and some of its immediate surrounds. Below are two colour-coded maps showing the two-party preferred swing at polling booth level, with each booth allocated a geographic catchment area built out of the “mesh blocks” that form the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ smallest unit of geographic analysis (typically encompassing about 30 dwellings). The image on the right encompasses the core of the city, while the second zooms further out. To get a proper look at either, click for an enlarged image.
In a pattern that will recur throughout this series, there is a clear zone of red in the inner city and the affluent, established eastern suburbs and northern beaches regions, giving way to an ocean of blue in the middle and outer suburbs. The occasional patches of red that break this up are often associated with sophomore surge effects, which played out to the advantage of Mike Freelander, who had no trouble retaining Macarthur (more on that below); Susan Templeman, who held out against a 2.0% swing in Macquarie; and Emma McBride, who survived a 3.3% swing in Dobell (albeit there was little to distinguish this from a 3.1% swing in neighbouring, Liberal-held Robertson).
The second part of our analysis compares the actual two-party results from the election with the results predicted by a linear regression model similar to, but more elaborate than, that presented here shortly after the election. This is based on the correlations observed across the nation between booth-level two-party results and the demography of booths’ catchment areas. The gory details of the model can be found here (the dependent variable being Labor’s two-party preferred percentage). The r-squared values indicate that the model explains 76.5% of the variation in the results – and doesn’t explain another 23.5%. Among the myriad unexplained factors that constitute the latter figure, the personal appeal (or lack thereof) of the sitting member (if any) might be expected to have a considerable bearing.
Such a model can be used to produce estimates that hopefully give some idea as to where the two parties were punching above and below their weight, and where the results were as we might have expected in view of broader trends. The latter more-or-less encompasses Lindsay, which was the only seat in the Sydney region to change hands between Labor and the Coalition (the only other change being Zali Steggall’s win over Tony Abbott in Warringah). The table below shows, progressively, the model’s estimate of Labor’s two-party vote, the actual result, and the difference between the two.
The first thing that leaps out is that the current leaders of both parties did exceptionally well, with their margins evidently being padded out by their substantial personal votes. Beyond that though, patterns get a little harder to discern. The Liberal-versus-independent contests in Warringah and Wentworth appear to have had very different effects on the Coalition’s two-party margins over Labor, which reduced to a remarkably narrow 2.1% as voters turned on Tony Abbott in Warringah, but remained solid at 9.8% in Wentworth, suggesting Dave Sharma may have accumulated a few fans through two recent campaigns and a dignified showing in the wake of the by-election defeat. That there was nonetheless a 7.9% two-party swing to Labor illustrates that he still has a way to go before he matches Malcolm Turnbull on this score.
The modelled result further emphasises the particularly good result Labor had in Macarthur, a seat the Liberals held from 1996 until 2016, when Russell Matheson suffered first an 8.3% reduction in his margin at a redistribution, and then an 11.7% swing to Labor’s Michael Freelander, a local paediatrician. At the May 19 election, the seat defied the national pattern in which outer urban seats that responded had unfavourably to Malcolm Turnbull swept back to the Liberals, with Freelander in fact managing the tiniest of swings in his favour. In addition to Freelander’s apparent popularity, this probably reflected a lack of effort put into the Liberal campaign, as the party narrowly focused on its offensive moves in Lindsay and Macquarie and defensive ones in Gilmore and Reid.
Okay, so this is what I have come across firstly:
Afghanistan: Taliban and opposition figures hold talks in Moscow
Global News Podcast
Influential opposition members attend talks which many hope will enable peace agreement.
Release date: 05 February 2019
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p0701164
doyley
This seems a good article on the state of ‘play’.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/07/intra-afghan-peace-talks-taliban-attacks-continue-190707175827231.html
I notice that earlier our Defence Minister called the Afghanistan War a ‘Civil War’. The War started with an invasion by Australia and its allies.
Cat needs to read the BBC article, 14 July 2019, (I have posted twice), about the state of play in Afghanistan
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-47733079
There is also this:
Afghanistan: Time to Talk to the Taliban?
The Real Story
After 16 years of war, is a military solution credible?
Contributors:
Michael Semple – Professor at Queen’s University Belfast and former deputy head of the EU mission in Kabul
Kate Clark – Co-director of the Afghanistan Analysts Network and former BBC Kabul correspondent
Shukria Barakzai – Afghan MP and Afghanistan’s Ambassador to Norway
Brigadier Muhammad Saad Khan – Former Pakistani defence attaché in Kabul
Rahimullah Yusufzai – Editor of The News International newspaper in Peshawar
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3csvqgl
I haven’t listened to it myself yet, however, it sounds authoritative.
So I don’t know what the conclusion is but I’d be inclined to believe them, whatever conclusion they come to, whether it agrees with what I have heard on the radio, or not. I’m listening to it now.
He really is a nasty piece of work
Clive Palmer’s multi-million-dollar payments to his father-in-law and a mysterious woman in Kyrgyzstan were among the funds he misused from Queensland Nickel coffers before its collapse, a court has heard.
https://amp.abc.net.au/article/11317652
GA is well worth the annual subscription
Cat
I have passed no comment on the state of play in Afghanistan as I have no expertise to do so.
However I have posted 2 links:
1. Australian Government travel advisory
and
2. A very current authoritative detailed article by the BBC.
Where we lost: Uruzgan Province
An excellent article, IMO.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6238919/lessons-to-be-learnt-from-failures-in-uruzgan/
Stuart nails the central issue: no Australian Government ever defined a meaningful war objective.
Howard started the lickspittle lunacy with ‘running the course’ and subsequent Labor governments stuck with this glib line.
No-one ever identified ‘the course’.
Running it, whatever the course was, killed dozens of Australians, wounded hundreds and cost billions. I believe that this core failure will eventually be implicated in the loss of morale and discipline that led to war crimes.
Pegasus,
Thanks for your link.
Cheers.
Boerwar @ #252 Wednesday, July 17th, 2019 – 3:59 pm
Yes Howard sent in Australian forces and Rudd dutifully boosted the numbers in 2009.
LibLab unity tickets go so well…
lizzie says:
Wednesday, July 17, 2019 at 4:10 pm
This is an element in the repression of labour. It is the dissolution of social justice. This will continue unabated unless and until the dysfunction on the centre-Left is brought to an end.
Boerwar,
Thanks for your link.
cat,
Thanks for your reply.
McConnell finally in a situation too hypocritical even for him!
https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1151201551890964480
High LGBTI suicide rate ‘unacceptable’: mental health commissioner
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/high-lgbti-suicide-rate-unacceptable-mental-health-commissioner-20190717-p5282r.html
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-07-17/christian-family-ordered-to-pay-2.3-million-tax-bill/11318538
Come the real war the NFI Greens will submerge the enemy in a sea of tweets, snarks, announcements and denunciations.
The Greens Party they have totally failed the LGBTIQ community for the past 27 years.
Shame!
Pegasus @ #253 Wednesday, July 17th, 2019 – 4:00 pm
And you should listen to the podcast I linked to at 4.01pm. All. The. Way. Through.
Confessions says: Wednesday, July 17, 2019 at 4:17 pm
McConnell finally in a situation too hypocritical even for him!
.@mkraju: Senator McConnell, you’re married to an immigrant who’s a naturalized US citizen. If someone was to tell her she should go back to her country because of her criticism of federal policy, wouldn’t you consider that a racist attack?
McCONNELL: …
https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1151201551890964480
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Melania Trump silent as her husband attacks congresswomen by implying they aren’t US citizens
Melania Trump is only the second first lady of the United States not born in America; the first, Louisa Adams was born in England. Yet she’s remained silent as her husband, President Donald Trump, tweets racist and xenophobic attacks at four Democratic freshman lawmakers who are all women of color.
https://edition.cnn.com/2019/07/15/politics/melania-trump-donald-trump-tweets/index.html
Melania Trump, Who’s Been In U.S. Shorter Time Than Ilhan Omar, Is Silent During Husband’s Tirades
https://hillreporter.com/melania-trump-whos-been-in-u-s-shorter-time-than-ilhan-omar-is-silent-during-husbands-tirades-40829
lizzie @ #268 Wednesday, July 17th, 2019 – 4:19 pm
The question is.. will Lyle start up the GoFundMe …?
Meet the Drumpfsters.
Of course. Trumps issue with the women isnt just that they are immigrants or of immigrant descent, it is that they dared to stick their heads out of the box. Melania is a good immigrant (and woman and wife) as she knows her place.
You know; I am not a racist as I am all for equal rights – right up until the brown girls start using those rights.
It has elements of the Goodes drama.
Is Melania a person of colour?
Cat
Your link https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3csvqgl was compiled in January 2018 and as such is outdated.
Give away: “After 16 years of war, is a military solution credible?”
and – together with date of accompanying photo on site for program: January 27, 2018
Good governments make their own luck.
The export coal price is falling thanks be to China playing silly buggers by way of punishing Australia for saying nyet to Huawei.
Melania’s a company woman.
Simon Katich says: Wednesday, July 17, 2019 at 4:40 pm
You know; I am not a racist as I am all for equal rights – right up until the brown girls start using those rights.
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Kellyanne Conway referring to them earlier today as the “dark underbelly” gives the game away – the ‘darkies’ taking over and trashing the US ….
Melania is a Slovenian.
Melania as was Melanija Knavs and she married into the now-notorious Drumpf family of Germanic antecedents.
Sort of technically, Melanija is a South Slav.
mikehilliard says: Wednesday, July 17, 2019 at 4:44 pm
Melania’s a company woman.
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Questions linger about how Melania Trump, a Slovenian model, scored ‘the Einstein visa’
In 2000, Melania Knauss, a Slovenian model dating Donald Trump, began petitioning the government for the right to permanently reside in the United States under a program reserved for people with “extraordinary ability.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/questions-linger-about-how-melania-trump-a-slovenian-model-scored-the-einstein-visa/2018/02/28/d307ddb2-1b35-11e8-ae5a-16e60e4605f3_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.ae1d76b361c5
Ed Husic not Lib lite enough for a front bench spot huh ?
I see that the Liberal Collaborator is out and about.
Be best!
pheonix
She actually looked human once.
Pegasus @ #277 Wednesday, July 17th, 2019 – 4:41 pm
Well, all I can say is that the more moderate elements in the Taliban must have gotten the upper hand because the other link, from 3.54pm, dated February, 2019 goes to this point. Sadly, the link itself isn’t there to listen to.
Okay, this is the most up to date and comprehensive piece about the Afghanistan peace process from the BBC (dated July 14th, 2019):
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-47733079
mikehilliard says: Wednesday, July 17, 2019 at 5:00 pm
pheonix
She actually looked human once.
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Melania Trump slams plastic surgery rumours: Before and after photos
First Lady Melania Trump has somewhat changed her image during her time in the limelight. People have speculated her fresh-faced looks of her modelling heyday seem to have had a little help from cosmetic professionals.
https://www.thehits.co.nz/photos/melania-trump-slams-plastic-surgery-rumours-before-and-after-photos/
Slovenia mostly Balkan slavs and as such – brownish.
However, no contact with the Turks and some darker minorities is probably the reason they appear (from my time there) whiter.
In many areas of the Balkans it is best to avoid talking about skin pigment. I have been told the Turk generals who oversaw many areas were all very good looking and gentlemanly.
‘Simon Katich says:
Wednesday, July 17, 2019 at 5:07 pm
Is Melania a person of colour?’
This does not help my outrage-ometer settings at all, at all.
Melania’s nose take two looks a bit like those reconstructed pill-tested coke nose jobs.
But what would I know?
Boerwar says:
Wednesday, July 17, 2019 at 5:17 pm
‘Simon Katich says:
Wednesday, July 17, 2019 at 5:07 pm
Is Melania a person of colour?’
This does not help my outrage-ometer settings at all, at all.
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What does it matter ??????? ……. the GropenFuhrer and his Wife could care less …….
Melania’s home town is Sevnica.
It contains four mass graves.
Three of the mass graves contain the bodies of nobody knows whom.
During WW2 Sevnica’s Slovenes were ethnically cleansed and replaced by Germanic settlers.
Cat
Yes, it is. I posted this link twice and advised you to read it.
You’re welcome.
Boerwar says: Wednesday, July 17, 2019 at 5:26 pm
Melania’s home town is Sevnica.
It contains four mass graves.
Three of the mass graves contain the bodies of nobody knows whom.
During WW2 Sevnica’s Slovenes were ethnically cleansed and replaced by Germanic settlers.
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Melania’s Dad, a New American Citizen With a Record in Yugoslavia’s Secret Police Files
At a time when people are being denied U.S. citizenship because of their pasts, the case of Viktor Knavs—and his record in Yugoslavia’s secret police files—is an interesting one.
https://www.thedailybeast.com/melanias-dad-a-new-american-citizen-with-a-record-in-yugoslavias-secret-police-files
But let’s get back to the most important question: Who exactly is Viktor Knavs? According to the GQ profile, Knavs was a former card-carrying Slovenian Communist Party member and a salesman for a state-owned car company in Slovenia. Knavs also once worked as the chauffeur for his town’s mayor, which is actually how he met Melania’s mother in 1966. The man apparently has for a predilection for vehicles, good food, and humor.
https://www.bustle.com/p/who-is-melania-trumps-dad-victor-knavs-resembles-a-certain-someone-63953
Labor and Newstart:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-07-17/labor-mps-calling-for-an-increase-in-newstart-payments/11318532
Pegasus @ #296 Wednesday, July 17th, 2019 – 5:31 pm
🙄
He really is a nasty piece of work
Clive Palmer’s multi-million-dollar payments to his father-in-law and a mysterious woman in Kyrgyzstan were among the funds he misused from Queensland Nickel coffers before its collapse, a court has heard.
______
Lock. Him. Up!