Call of the board: Sydney

Ahead of Newspoll’s apparently looming return, the first in a series that probes deep into the entrails of the May 19 election result.

In case you were wondering, The Australian reported on Monday that the first Newspoll since the election – indeed, the first poll on voting intention of any kind since the election, unless someone else quickly gets in first – will be published “very shortly”.

In the meantime, I offer what will be the first in a series of posts that probe deep into the results of the federal election region by region, starting with Sydney and some of its immediate surrounds. Below are two colour-coded maps showing the two-party preferred swing at polling booth level, with each booth allocated a geographic catchment area built out of the “mesh blocks” that form the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ smallest unit of geographic analysis (typically encompassing about 30 dwellings). The image on the right encompasses the core of the city, while the second zooms further out. To get a proper look at either, click for an enlarged image.

In a pattern that will recur throughout this series, there is a clear zone of red in the inner city and the affluent, established eastern suburbs and northern beaches regions, giving way to an ocean of blue in the middle and outer suburbs. The occasional patches of red that break this up are often associated with sophomore surge effects, which played out to the advantage of Mike Freelander, who had no trouble retaining Macarthur (more on that below); Susan Templeman, who held out against a 2.0% swing in Macquarie; and Emma McBride, who survived a 3.3% swing in Dobell (albeit there was little to distinguish this from a 3.1% swing in neighbouring, Liberal-held Robertson).

The second part of our analysis compares the actual two-party results from the election with the results predicted by a linear regression model similar to, but more elaborate than, that presented here shortly after the election. This is based on the correlations observed across the nation between booth-level two-party results and the demography of booths’ catchment areas. The gory details of the model can be found here (the dependent variable being Labor’s two-party preferred percentage). The r-squared values indicate that the model explains 76.5% of the variation in the results – and doesn’t explain another 23.5%. Among the myriad unexplained factors that constitute the latter figure, the personal appeal (or lack thereof) of the sitting member (if any) might be expected to have a considerable bearing.

Such a model can be used to produce estimates that hopefully give some idea as to where the two parties were punching above and below their weight, and where the results were as we might have expected in view of broader trends. The latter more-or-less encompasses Lindsay, which was the only seat in the Sydney region to change hands between Labor and the Coalition (the only other change being Zali Steggall’s win over Tony Abbott in Warringah). The table below shows, progressively, the model’s estimate of Labor’s two-party vote, the actual result, and the difference between the two.

The first thing that leaps out is that the current leaders of both parties did exceptionally well, with their margins evidently being padded out by their substantial personal votes. Beyond that though, patterns get a little harder to discern. The Liberal-versus-independent contests in Warringah and Wentworth appear to have had very different effects on the Coalition’s two-party margins over Labor, which reduced to a remarkably narrow 2.1% as voters turned on Tony Abbott in Warringah, but remained solid at 9.8% in Wentworth, suggesting Dave Sharma may have accumulated a few fans through two recent campaigns and a dignified showing in the wake of the by-election defeat. That there was nonetheless a 7.9% two-party swing to Labor illustrates that he still has a way to go before he matches Malcolm Turnbull on this score.

The modelled result further emphasises the particularly good result Labor had in Macarthur, a seat the Liberals held from 1996 until 2016, when Russell Matheson suffered first an 8.3% reduction in his margin at a redistribution, and then an 11.7% swing to Labor’s Michael Freelander, a local paediatrician. At the May 19 election, the seat defied the national pattern in which outer urban seats that responded had unfavourably to Malcolm Turnbull swept back to the Liberals, with Freelander in fact managing the tiniest of swings in his favour. In addition to Freelander’s apparent popularity, this probably reflected a lack of effort put into the Liberal campaign, as the party narrowly focused on its offensive moves in Lindsay and Macquarie and defensive ones in Gilmore and Reid.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,549 comments on “Call of the board: Sydney”

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  1. There is also this:

    Afghanistan: Time to Talk to the Taliban?
    The Real Story
    After 16 years of war, is a military solution credible?

    Contributors:
    Michael Semple – Professor at Queen’s University Belfast and former deputy head of the EU mission in Kabul

    Kate Clark – Co-director of the Afghanistan Analysts Network and former BBC Kabul correspondent

    Shukria Barakzai – Afghan MP and Afghanistan’s Ambassador to Norway

    Brigadier Muhammad Saad Khan – Former Pakistani defence attaché in Kabul

    Rahimullah Yusufzai – Editor of The News International newspaper in Peshawar

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3csvqgl

    I haven’t listened to it myself yet, however, it sounds authoritative.

    So I don’t know what the conclusion is but I’d be inclined to believe them, whatever conclusion they come to, whether it agrees with what I have heard on the radio, or not. I’m listening to it now.

  2. Cat

    My advice to you until I find it is, don’t necessarily believe the conclusion Pegasus and the other Greens may want you to come to

    I have passed no comment on the state of play in Afghanistan as I have no expertise to do so.

    However I have posted 2 links:

    1. Australian Government travel advisory
    and
    2. A very current authoritative detailed article by the BBC.

  3. Where we lost: Uruzgan Province

    An excellent article, IMO.

    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6238919/lessons-to-be-learnt-from-failures-in-uruzgan/

    Stuart nails the central issue: no Australian Government ever defined a meaningful war objective.

    Howard started the lickspittle lunacy with ‘running the course’ and subsequent Labor governments stuck with this glib line.

    No-one ever identified ‘the course’.

    Running it, whatever the course was, killed dozens of Australians, wounded hundreds and cost billions. I believe that this core failure will eventually be implicated in the loss of morale and discipline that led to war crimes.

  4. Ewart Dave
    @davidbewart
    ·
    24m

    Another political candidate descended from Hungarian Jews, Tim Hollo, found he had inherited Hungarian citizenship even though he had never applied for it.

    It took 14 months to gain a renunciation certificate. Frydenberg has produced no such certificate.”

  5. Boerwar @ #252 Wednesday, July 17th, 2019 – 3:59 pm

    doyley

    This seems a good article on the state of ‘play’.

    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/07/intra-afghan-peace-talks-taliban-attacks-continue-190707175827231.html

    I notice that earlier our Defence Minister called the Afghanistan War a ‘Civil War’. The War started with an invasion by Australia and its allies.

    Yes Howard sent in Australian forces and Rudd dutifully boosted the numbers in 2009.

    LibLab unity tickets go so well…

  6. lizzie says:
    Wednesday, July 17, 2019 at 4:10 pm

    This is an element in the repression of labour. It is the dissolution of social justice. This will continue unabated unless and until the dysfunction on the centre-Left is brought to an end.

  7. McConnell finally in a situation too hypocritical even for him!

    Aaron RuparVerified account@atrupar
    11h11 hours ago
    .@mkraju: Senator McConnell, you’re married to an immigrant who’s a naturalized US citizen. If someone was to tell her she should go back to her country because of her criticism of federal policy, wouldn’t you consider that a racist attack?

    McCONNELL: …

    https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1151201551890964480

  8. High LGBTI suicide rate ‘unacceptable’: mental health commissioner

    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/high-lgbti-suicide-rate-unacceptable-mental-health-commissioner-20190717-p5282r.html

    The chair of the royal commission into the state’s mental health system has described as “totally unacceptable” the very high rate of suicide for lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender and intersex Victorians.

    LGBTI people have the highest rate of suicidality – which includes suicidal thoughts, plans and attempts – among any population in Australia, but the number of deaths is likely to be even greater because data on sexuality or gender identity is not consistently captured, the commission heard on Wednesday.
    :::
    Current figures show that LGBTI young people between the ages of 16 and 27 are five times more likely to attempt suicide, transgender people over 18 are nearly 11 times more likely and people with an intersex variation over 16 are nearly six times more likely.
    :::
    “We don’t wake up in the cot hating ourselves, it comes from somewhere,” they said. “[It comes] from stigma about how we are labelled and identified, whether it’s through the media or through the recent postal survey which was a tsunami of attacks on our mental health.”

  9. A Tasmanian family has been ordered to pay more than $2 million to the Australian Taxation Office after failing to pay income tax on the grounds it “goes against God’s will”.

    Key points
    *The family argued paying taxes would be rebelling against God
    *They said they relied on God, not an outside entity like the ATO
    *The Judge said ‘thou shalt not tax’ was not in the Bible and ordered the pair to pay more than $1 million each

    Christian missionaries Fanny Alida Beerepoot and Rembertus Cornelis Beerepoot faced the Supreme Court of Tasmania today after they both failed to pay an estimated $930,000 in income tax and other charges in 2017.

    Solicitor Stephen Linden told the court the pair had been served two notices of their debt and had failed to lodge their tax returns.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-07-17/christian-family-ordered-to-pay-2.3-million-tax-bill/11318538

  10. Confessions says: Wednesday, July 17, 2019 at 4:17 pm

    McConnell finally in a situation too hypocritical even for him!

    .@mkraju: Senator McConnell, you’re married to an immigrant who’s a naturalized US citizen. If someone was to tell her she should go back to her country because of her criticism of federal policy, wouldn’t you consider that a racist attack?

    McCONNELL: …

    https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1151201551890964480

    ****************************************************************

    Melania Trump silent as her husband attacks congresswomen by implying they aren’t US citizens

    Melania Trump is only the second first lady of the United States not born in America; the first, Louisa Adams was born in England. Yet she’s remained silent as her husband, President Donald Trump, tweets racist and xenophobic attacks at four Democratic freshman lawmakers who are all women of color.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2019/07/15/politics/melania-trump-donald-trump-tweets/index.html

    Melania Trump, Who’s Been In U.S. Shorter Time Than Ilhan Omar, Is Silent During Husband’s Tirades

    https://hillreporter.com/melania-trump-whos-been-in-u-s-shorter-time-than-ilhan-omar-is-silent-during-husbands-tirades-40829

  11. lizzie @ #268 Wednesday, July 17th, 2019 – 4:19 pm

    A Tasmanian family has been ordered to pay more than $2 million to the Australian Taxation Office after failing to pay income tax on the grounds it “goes against God’s will”.

    Key points
    *The family argued paying taxes would be rebelling against God
    *They said they relied on God, not an outside entity like the ATO
    *The Judge said ‘thou shalt not tax’ was not in the Bible and ordered the pair to pay more than $1 million each

    Christian missionaries Fanny Alida Beerepoot and Rembertus Cornelis Beerepoot faced the Supreme Court of Tasmania today after they both failed to pay an estimated $930,000 in income tax and other charges in 2017.

    Solicitor Stephen Linden told the court the pair had been served two notices of their debt and had failed to lodge their tax returns.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-07-17/christian-family-ordered-to-pay-2.3-million-tax-bill/11318538

    The question is.. will Lyle start up the GoFundMe …?

  12. Melania Trump silent as her husband attacks congresswomen

    Of course. Trumps issue with the women isnt just that they are immigrants or of immigrant descent, it is that they dared to stick their heads out of the box. Melania is a good immigrant (and woman and wife) as she knows her place.

    You know; I am not a racist as I am all for equal rights – right up until the brown girls start using those rights.

    It has elements of the Goodes drama.

  13. Good governments make their own luck.

    The export coal price is falling thanks be to China playing silly buggers by way of punishing Australia for saying nyet to Huawei.

  14. Simon Katich says: Wednesday, July 17, 2019 at 4:40 pm

    You know; I am not a racist as I am all for equal rights – right up until the brown girls start using those rights.

    ***********************************************************

    Kellyanne Conway referring to them earlier today as the “dark underbelly” gives the game away – the ‘darkies’ taking over and trashing the US ….

  15. Melania is a Slovenian.

    Melania as was Melanija Knavs and she married into the now-notorious Drumpf family of Germanic antecedents.

    Sort of technically, Melanija is a South Slav.

  16. mikehilliard says: Wednesday, July 17, 2019 at 4:44 pm

    Melania’s a company woman.

    ************************************************************************

    Questions linger about how Melania Trump, a Slovenian model, scored ‘the Einstein visa’

    In 2000, Melania Knauss, a Slovenian model dating Donald Trump, began petitioning the government for the right to permanently reside in the United States under a program reserved for people with “extraordinary ability.”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/questions-linger-about-how-melania-trump-a-slovenian-model-scored-the-einstein-visa/2018/02/28/d307ddb2-1b35-11e8-ae5a-16e60e4605f3_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.ae1d76b361c5

  17. In 2000, Melania Knauss, a Slovenian model dating Donald Trump, began petitioning the government for the right to permanently reside in the United States under a program reserved for people with “extraordinary ability.”

    Be best!

  18. Pegasus @ #277 Wednesday, July 17th, 2019 – 4:41 pm

    Cat

    Your link https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3csvqgl was compiled in January 2018 and as such is outdated.

    Give away: “After 16 years of war, is a military solution credible?”

    and – together with date of accompanying photo on site for program: January 27, 2018

    Well, all I can say is that the more moderate elements in the Taliban must have gotten the upper hand because the other link, from 3.54pm, dated February, 2019 goes to this point. Sadly, the link itself isn’t there to listen to.

  19. mikehilliard says: Wednesday, July 17, 2019 at 5:00 pm

    pheonix

    She actually looked human once.

    ***************************************************

    Melania Trump slams plastic surgery rumours: Before and after photos

    First Lady Melania Trump has somewhat changed her image during her time in the limelight. People have speculated her fresh-faced looks of her modelling heyday seem to have had a little help from cosmetic professionals.

    https://www.thehits.co.nz/photos/melania-trump-slams-plastic-surgery-rumours-before-and-after-photos/

  20. Is Melania a person of colour?

    Slovenia mostly Balkan slavs and as such – brownish.
    However, no contact with the Turks and some darker minorities is probably the reason they appear (from my time there) whiter.

    In many areas of the Balkans it is best to avoid talking about skin pigment. I have been told the Turk generals who oversaw many areas were all very good looking and gentlemanly.

  21. ‘Simon Katich says:
    Wednesday, July 17, 2019 at 5:07 pm

    Is Melania a person of colour?’

    This does not help my outrage-ometer settings at all, at all.

  22. Boerwar says:

    Wednesday, July 17, 2019 at 5:17 pm

    ‘Simon Katich says:
    Wednesday, July 17, 2019 at 5:07 pm

    Is Melania a person of colour?’

    This does not help my outrage-ometer settings at all, at all.

    **************************************************\

    What does it matter ??????? ……. the GropenFuhrer and his Wife could care less …….

  23. Melania’s home town is Sevnica.
    It contains four mass graves.
    Three of the mass graves contain the bodies of nobody knows whom.
    During WW2 Sevnica’s Slovenes were ethnically cleansed and replaced by Germanic settlers.

  24. Boerwar says: Wednesday, July 17, 2019 at 5:26 pm

    Melania’s home town is Sevnica.
    It contains four mass graves.
    Three of the mass graves contain the bodies of nobody knows whom.
    During WW2 Sevnica’s Slovenes were ethnically cleansed and replaced by Germanic settlers.

    ***********************************************************

    Melania’s Dad, a New American Citizen With a Record in Yugoslavia’s Secret Police Files

    At a time when people are being denied U.S. citizenship because of their pasts, the case of Viktor Knavs—and his record in Yugoslavia’s secret police files—is an interesting one.

    https://www.thedailybeast.com/melanias-dad-a-new-american-citizen-with-a-record-in-yugoslavias-secret-police-files

    But let’s get back to the most important question: Who exactly is Viktor Knavs? According to the GQ profile, Knavs was a former card-carrying Slovenian Communist Party member and a salesman for a state-owned car company in Slovenia. Knavs also once worked as the chauffeur for his town’s mayor, which is actually how he met Melania’s mother in 1966. The man apparently has for a predilection for vehicles, good food, and humor.

    https://www.bustle.com/p/who-is-melania-trumps-dad-victor-knavs-resembles-a-certain-someone-63953

  25. Labor and Newstart:

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-07-17/labor-mps-calling-for-an-increase-in-newstart-payments/11318532

    Labor Leader Anthony Albanese has made it clear the review will not be going ahead and said while he believed Newstart was “inadequate”, it was up to the Government to do something about it.

    Some within Labor back his position, arguing the party should make this the Coalition’s problem for as long as it can.
    :::
    But others — including Chris Hayes — want Labor to take a stronger stand and firmly commit to an increase as it reviews all of its policies after its shock election loss.

    Victorian Labor backbencher Peter Khalil said there was a will on his side of politics to “look at this issue seriously” while his colleague Ged Kearney said she would be surprised if anyone in Labor believed the allowance was sufficient.

  26. He really is a nasty piece of work

    Clive Palmer’s multi-million-dollar payments to his father-in-law and a mysterious woman in Kyrgyzstan were among the funds he misused from Queensland Nickel coffers before its collapse, a court has heard.
    ______
    Lock. Him. Up!

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