In case you were wondering, The Australian reported on Monday that the first Newspoll since the election – indeed, the first poll on voting intention of any kind since the election, unless someone else quickly gets in first – will be published “very shortly”.
In the meantime, I offer what will be the first in a series of posts that probe deep into the results of the federal election region by region, starting with Sydney and some of its immediate surrounds. Below are two colour-coded maps showing the two-party preferred swing at polling booth level, with each booth allocated a geographic catchment area built out of the “mesh blocks” that form the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ smallest unit of geographic analysis (typically encompassing about 30 dwellings). The image on the right encompasses the core of the city, while the second zooms further out. To get a proper look at either, click for an enlarged image.
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In a pattern that will recur throughout this series, there is a clear zone of red in the inner city and the affluent, established eastern suburbs and northern beaches regions, giving way to an ocean of blue in the middle and outer suburbs. The occasional patches of red that break this up are often associated with sophomore surge effects, which played out to the advantage of Mike Freelander, who had no trouble retaining Macarthur (more on that below); Susan Templeman, who held out against a 2.0% swing in Macquarie; and Emma McBride, who survived a 3.3% swing in Dobell (albeit there was little to distinguish this from a 3.1% swing in neighbouring, Liberal-held Robertson).
The second part of our analysis compares the actual two-party results from the election with the results predicted by a linear regression model similar to, but more elaborate than, that presented here shortly after the election. This is based on the correlations observed across the nation between booth-level two-party results and the demography of booths’ catchment areas. The gory details of the model can be found here (the dependent variable being Labor’s two-party preferred percentage). The r-squared values indicate that the model explains 76.5% of the variation in the results – and doesn’t explain another 23.5%. Among the myriad unexplained factors that constitute the latter figure, the personal appeal (or lack thereof) of the sitting member (if any) might be expected to have a considerable bearing.
Such a model can be used to produce estimates that hopefully give some idea as to where the two parties were punching above and below their weight, and where the results were as we might have expected in view of broader trends. The latter more-or-less encompasses Lindsay, which was the only seat in the Sydney region to change hands between Labor and the Coalition (the only other change being Zali Steggall’s win over Tony Abbott in Warringah). The table below shows, progressively, the model’s estimate of Labor’s two-party vote, the actual result, and the difference between the two.
The first thing that leaps out is that the current leaders of both parties did exceptionally well, with their margins evidently being padded out by their substantial personal votes. Beyond that though, patterns get a little harder to discern. The Liberal-versus-independent contests in Warringah and Wentworth appear to have had very different effects on the Coalition’s two-party margins over Labor, which reduced to a remarkably narrow 2.1% as voters turned on Tony Abbott in Warringah, but remained solid at 9.8% in Wentworth, suggesting Dave Sharma may have accumulated a few fans through two recent campaigns and a dignified showing in the wake of the by-election defeat. That there was nonetheless a 7.9% two-party swing to Labor illustrates that he still has a way to go before he matches Malcolm Turnbull on this score.
The modelled result further emphasises the particularly good result Labor had in Macarthur, a seat the Liberals held from 1996 until 2016, when Russell Matheson suffered first an 8.3% reduction in his margin at a redistribution, and then an 11.7% swing to Labor’s Michael Freelander, a local paediatrician. At the May 19 election, the seat defied the national pattern in which outer urban seats that responded had unfavourably to Malcolm Turnbull swept back to the Liberals, with Freelander in fact managing the tiniest of swings in his favour. In addition to Freelander’s apparent popularity, this probably reflected a lack of effort put into the Liberal campaign, as the party narrowly focused on its offensive moves in Lindsay and Macquarie and defensive ones in Gilmore and Reid.
The whole “wind farms kill birds” palaver is a red-herring raised by people who don’t give a stuff about wild life. How many birds or other creatures are killed by land clearing? Open cut mines? Real estate development? And logging? Don’t hear them complain about those.
Like wind farm syndrome. Only affects the Angloshere and can be relieved by financial compensation.
Another from the It’s The Electoral College, Stupid! files.
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/19/upshot/trump-electoral-college-edge-.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage
NYTimes conservative David Brooks :
Donald Trump Hates America
The rest of us can love America well.
So apparently Donald Trump wants to make this an election about what it means to be American. He’s got his vision of what it means to be American, and he’s challenging the rest of us to come up with a better one.
In Trump’s version, “American” is defined by three propositions. First, to be American is to be xenophobic. The basic narrative he tells is that the good people of the heartland are under assault from aliens, elitists and outsiders. Second, to be American is to be nostalgic. America’s values were better during some golden past. Third, a true American is white. White Protestants created this country; everybody else is here on their sufferance.
When you look at Trump’s American idea you realize that it contradicts the traditional American idea in every particular.
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/18/opinion/trump-america-election.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage
Dan G:
Mike Seccombe highlighted the Newstart data in his column today. It certainly surprised me.
Read the Bob Brown article, which appears to be mainly concerned about how long it took for the media to respond to his original article…
…however…
‘The best option in both cases is energy efficiency on a national and global scale – a cheaper and more job-rich option for everyone – and then renewable energy, if it stacks up ecologically.’
I’m not sure what he means by this, but it sounds as if he’s saying we should be looking at energy conservation first and then renewables a distant second, as long as the renewables don’t do any damage.
In which case, he’s ignoring data like that I posted earlier, which shows that existing forms of energy production are bigger killers of birds (and, I assume, other wildlife) than renewables.
No wonder he went to Queensland rather than to the LaTrobe valley for his protest.
And how is this for hyperbole —
‘The Robbins Island wind farm tests us. Should the profit-seeking multinational UPC Renewables be waved through, or should we draw the line on this farm in order to obviate its contribution to our self-made mass extinction crisis?’
So now any form of energy production is suspect if it is (a) going to make a profit or (b) multinational – despite the fact that for any investment in energy production to take place it will necessarily have to make a profit (unless we accept the fed government’s kind offer to build more coal fired power stations) and will also, necessarily, involve foreign money.
And our ‘self made mass extinction crisis’ is – according the experts, including the Green party – best dealt with by mitigating climate change, with renewables being the Greens’ main tool for doing this.
‘ The one gigawatt of wind power from Robbins Island will not warm one Tasmanian home. It will be exported into the mainland electricity grid…’
Where, shock, horror, it will warm thousands on non-Tasmanian homes (although, given it’s a national grid, I would expect one or two Tassie homes to be warmed along the way…)
‘…which is fine provided the island state gets a fair share of the bounty with UPC Renewables.’
Oh, so it’s OK to f*ck the planet as long as Tasmania gets a benefit? He can’t have it both ways. Either UPC are the devil incarnate or they’re OK as long as they throw Tassie a bit of dosh.
‘The company says it is “developing a project pipeline of more than six gigawatts in Australia, China, the Philippines, Indonesia, Vietnam, India, Taiwan, Korea and Tunisia”. Is that “pipeline” where the benefits will go, while Tasmania continues with high illiteracy rates and ambulance queues at hospital emergency departments that can’t cope?’
OM f*ing God. The man is nuts.
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/opinion/topic/2019/07/20/the-robbins-island-wind-farm-debate/15635448008477
C@t
Boerwar is much more experienced in bird identification than I am.
As far as windfarms go, it depends on the siting and who’s counting, and also just how rare the affected species are. Tasmanian Eagles are under such pressure that I’m interested in zoomster’s links.
Thank the gods this arsehole is no longer in parliament. (and no, this is not an anti-Labor screed, it’s just an anti-arsehole screed).
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jul/20/michael-danby-charged-taxpayers-to-pay-staffer-after-hours-consultancy-fees
Steve777
Investigation has revealed that the low intensity throbbing from windfarms can definitely be heard by some people, but not all, so your “money fixes it” argument may not always hold water.
Good morning and thanks BK for today’s Dawn Patrol and in Inparticular – the cartoons.
Zanetti is most assuredly deserving of a prize – just what for is anybodies guess.
Our old friend Bjorn Lonborg has appeared in his less than lukewarm assessment regarding global warming/climate change.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/climate-trillions-frittered-in-the-wind/news-story/3c3517b588fc0ed03746a8c916264152
Lotsa other stuff
My read is that we coulda – shoulda – woulda etc and some countless people will be dead in horrible circumstances but many from the rich countries will be just as dead with good looking corpses. Roll on Danny Fisher*. I seem to have misremembered (what a surprise) the line source.
*
Letters from Mrs. Irene L. Luce, to Oscar B. Luce, won a divorce for the husband here today.
“I can’t be bothered with a husband,” one letter said.
“I intend to live a fast life, die young and be a beautiful corpse,” Mrs. Luce wrote.
‘Live Fast, Die Young, Leave a Good-Looking Corpse’: Coined by a Chicago Writer
Willard Motley came up with one of the most famous lines in American literature for his popular debut novel—which was turned into a movie starring Humphrey Bogart—but has since faded into obscurity. Nelson Algren was a fan, but not of his writing. ‘Live Fast, Die Young, Leave a Good-Looking Corpse’:
Question for the ages – since we are all, apparently, going to hell, how will we be travelling ❓ Government buses have bee privatised – trains are often delayed or late. Aircraft or boat perhaps ❓
When thieves fall out…
[Hillsong’s] Houston replied: “@IzzyFolau has lost touch with the goodness and grace of Jesus and it’s tragic …Who is bewitching you Israel? I am still here on the same mobile number.”
Folau hit back: “There’s one thing that’s common with all you prosperity preachers, You don’t ever speak of repentance, Hell, Sin. You (sic) worried about losing crowds & $$.”
…
Josiah [Folau], who graduated from St Gregory’s Catholic College in Campbelltown in 2016, now believes that “anything born of the Catholic Church is evil”.
He told the concerned parent: “The Catholic Church is a synagogue of Satan and I one hundred per cent believe and affirm that Roman Catholicism is masked devil worship.”
The parent was also told of the falseness of the doctrine of the Trinity – a belief held by most mainstream Christians.
Actually, it all makes a lot of sense to me. Go Izzy!
Have you seen what goes on in those churches? He and his flock are already in what I would consider hell.
Assuming he is correct (which he often isnt), that is about 1-2% of Global GDP.
And as all the real experts keep saying, you cant look at costs of doing something on Climate Change without looking at the costs of doing nothing. One study showed that failure to act will, by the end of the century, cost global GDP 15-25%.
1-2% by 2030 seems a good investment to any rational observer.
Lomborg has become a sad caricature of himself. Keep digging Bjorn – You will get to China one day.
Bushfire Bill says:
Saturday, July 20, 2019 at 9:25 am
Says the man using other people’s money to try and regain his own personal money stream.
Simon Katich @ #1211 Saturday, July 20th, 2019 – 7:31 am
Given a choice between spending eternity in the company of people who’ve indulged in sex, drugs and rock n roll, or spending it with the likes of Morrison, Folau and Shelton, I know where I’d rather be.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l482T0yNkeo
The 538 guys covered this in the pod that dropped yesterday (or the day before) it isn’t nearly as bad as it seems, particularly in Pennsylvania. 2018 was just last year and the dems did extraordinarily well, against all sorts of cheating and antidemocratic corruption.
I would rather take my time getting there tho – via the long windy road. Scott was in a hurry.
This is an ugly consequence of outsourcing by the Government and one they probably find very attractive and convenient.
Fortunately it seems that there are sometimes ways through the mire.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jul/19/defence-ordered-to-hand-over-documents-on-50bn-submarine-deal-with-french
I think it is telling that one of the Repugs who voted for the ‘Trump is a Racist’ motion was from PA.
Simon Katich:
[‘Have you seen what goes on in those churches? He and his flock are already in what I would consider hell.’]
I’ve twice been: the first to ascertain if they were nutters; the second to confirm same. The congregation seemed to be having a jolly good time. They became particularly animated when it came to tongues. I came to the regrettable conclusion that they were on an illicit substance.
Yeah and don’t get me wrong I don’t think it is going to be easy for any democratic candidate, no matter how moderate they are they are going to be painted as extreme. IMHO they might as well go for fairly extreme and hope they can inflame the base. Kind of the exact opposite of what Albo and KK are doing by trying to take the Govt from the right, in child’s pose.
I would agree with you, except I am not blown away by the ‘fairly extreme’ options.
Except Warren. I really like her. I still dont see her winning against Trump, however far less so than I thought a couple of months ago. See how she goes in the next couple of months.
Amy.
Amy Amy Amy.
From Twitter.
I’ve missed this. IMO any agreement with Dutton would have to be misguided, but can anyone give me more detail?
This arrogant, ignorant man. Is he deaf, stupid or uncaring?
lizzie
Ardern is protesting against NZ citizens who have been convicted of a crime – even though they might have spent their lives in Australia – being deported to NZ.
lizzie
https://anthonyalbanese.com.au/transcript-of-television-interview-today-show-friday-19-july-2019
lizzie says:
Saturday, July 20, 2019 at 10:09 am
I assume he said something agreeing that Kiwis, with no association with NZ, should be deported after completing their prison sentence.
I’d like to hear his reasoning because on face value are certainly can’t agree with him.
lizzie @ #1222 Saturday, July 20th, 2019 – 10:09 am
https://startsat60.com/discover/news/politics/peter-dutton-anthony-albanese-jacinda-ardern-deportation-laws
I vaguely remember something about this on the blog. Someone else may be able to help. ☕
Specifically:
KNIGHT: A lot of these people, Albo, who were born in New Zealand but have lived their entire life in Australia, have absolutely no connection to New Zealand at all. Is this something that Labor wants changed?
ALBANESE: No, we haven’t argued for change in this area. We think that the balance is essentially right, but it’s legitimate if they are issues for Jacinda Ardern to raise those with Scott Morrison. We don’t want to see this to be a partisan debate. New Zealand is a very good friend of Australia.
KayJay
I try to avoid posting anything about Bjorn Lomborg these days. It just gives him publicity. He is a Danish Andrew Bolt. He is neither a climate scientist nor an economist; he studied political science. He has made a career out of publishing controversial books, which have consistently been debunked as false later. He has one peer reviewed article in his career. Two separate scientific panels in Denmark upheld complaints against him which damaged his academic career. He was then given a plum academic job (in politics!) by the right wing Danish government. At the time he sought the academic job in Perth the right wing government in Denmark had lost a later election so the jig was up for Bjorn.
https://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php/Bjorn_Lomborg
https://www.smh.com.au/sport/why-the-pm-and-most-christians-are-going-to-hell-20190719-p528xx.html
Isn’t it sad when good people fall out?
Thanks zoom, Peg, barney and KayJay. I will have a strong coffee and consider it. 🙂
I absolutely disagree with Albo.
This goes directly to the Minister’s discretionary powers and while I don’t disagree with the concept of deporting criminals who have a clear link to their Country of origin there is room for discretion when for all intents they are Australian.
Socrates
Saturday, July 20th, 2019 – 10:22 am – NEW!
Comment #1229
The article by Mr. Lomborg was wordy and strung together in such a manner that the casual reader could use it as a basis for denial.
The article was in The Australian after all. I like to have a look at the “stuff” they put out. 😇
Exactly Lizzie!
Anti-semitism is belief or behaviour hostile toward Jews just because they are Jewish.
https://www.patreon.com/posts/28480485
Question, re Lomborg: is the “$2 billion cost” to the world economy due to implementing the Paris Agreement (1) the amount of money spent globally, or (2) the amount that GNP will be retarded by the transition?
If it is the former then surely that’s an economic stimulus. If it is the later, is it a net figure, or simply an estimate of how much economic growth in established economic sectors will be adversely affected?
zoomster says:
Saturday, July 20, 2019 at 9:14 am
Read the Bob Brown article, which appears to be mainly concerned about how long it took for the media to respond to his original article
We will all perish in Green Valley, zoomster.
Lomborg is just making up shit. That’s his job. He’s a fabricator and installer of tricks.
This is a fascinating article by Robert Hockett about the prospects of the US central bank issuing a digital version of the US dollar. He says that at present there are various privately issued digital currencies but he expects that eventually these will be displaced by a government-issued digital currency. This development would be a parallel of the evolution of paper currency: at first there were lots of privately issued banknotes, with values that fluctuated a lot against each other, and then during the Civil War the US Government issued its own paper banknote which made all the private ones obsolete. What ultimately makes the US dollar valuable is of course the fact that it is the only instrument that can be used to pay taxes enforced by the US Government.
Hockett says that when the US Government issues a digital currency it will have the capability to give every individual their own account at the central bank. This would mean that there would be no need to go through a private bank to send or receive payments. You would have direct access to the national payments system.
https://stanford-jblp.pubpub.org/pub/wildcat-crypto-fintech-future?fbclid=IwAR0FyIksprszZUuvjpc_cyHoukixrAxPQs6jGJebmnyE5yHugWVtBNZ3Bc4
Dutton-Albo.
Dutton as usual is making broad accusations that the ones being sent back are all paedophiles. That’s rubbish.
Albo: “We think that the balance is essentially right.”
No.
I agree with Barney, if people have lived most of their lives in Australia, and particularly if they have no relatives or other support in NZ, they are simply being thrown on to NZ’s welfare system.
For those with either 5 minutes or 5 hours to spend watching, I present Eagle Cam Live, following the real time adventures of a pair of Sydney Sea Eagles (of the genuine, feathered kind) in their nest atop a tree at Newington Bush Reserve, Parramatta River Sydney.
Watch for just a minute, or keep it on all day.
https://youtu.be/vHEW1zpJTX4
Up here, on the Glorious NSW Mid-North Coast, we have a pair of ospreys with a nest perched on top of a telegraph pole at the Green Point turnoff from The Lakes Way, near Forster.
Every now and again you see a round head poking up over the parapet. Yesterday one of them had a stick in its mouth. Renovations, I suppose.
But we couldn’t help speculating on what Mrs Osprey had to say…
“I send you out for a fish, and you come back with a… stick? Brilliant!”
“Well… I…”
” Well, WHAT? Do you remember that time you found that old sock buried in the dunes? THAT worked, didn’t it.. NOT!”
“Er…”
“That’s it! From now on YOU keep the eggs warm and I get the fish. Think you can manage that? Sheesh…”
“Sorry darling.”
“Oh shut up.”
[‘ALBANESE: No, we haven’t argued for change in this area.’]
There was a period (maybe there still is?) where magistrates, judges would sentence an offender to under 12 months imprisonment so as to avoid the possibility of them being sent back to their country of birth on the expiration of their sentence, the rationale being that this is extra curial punishment.
There have been quite a number of examples where prisoners have been deported in circumstances where they had no connection whatsoever to their birth country. Ardern, her predecessors, have attempted to bring this to an end, or at least be less prescriptive in its application, but to no avail.
There is arguably a case for deportation in the case of serious, repeat offenders, but the somewhat arbitrary nature of s.501 needs to be balanced by a more humane approach. Dutton doesn’t do humane.
Albanese is failing to show leadership by falling in line with the hard-nosed Dutton.
http://www5.austlii.edu.au/au/legis/cth/consol_act/ma1958118/s501.html
Albanese has nailed his colours to the mast wrt national security, xenophobia and racism. He is upfront about attempting to win over, win back, the same subset of voters who are currently voting for the Coalition and Hanson on these issues.
Fear and division rules.
Mavis Davis
Exactly. Dutton and his cohort enjoy “making an example” of the vulnerable, while the number of crooks, shysters and overstayers grows by the minute.
Albanese in bed with Dutton:
https://www.greenleft.org.au/content/resist-duttons-war-democracy
Wunderbar ❗ 🕊
Albanese in bed with Dutton:
__________
Did the earth move?
Proof that despite having wings and being able to fly off at the drop of a hat, a bird’s life is essentially quite boring 😆