Call of the board: Sydney

Ahead of Newspoll’s apparently looming return, the first in a series that probes deep into the entrails of the May 19 election result.

In case you were wondering, The Australian reported on Monday that the first Newspoll since the election – indeed, the first poll on voting intention of any kind since the election, unless someone else quickly gets in first – will be published “very shortly”.

In the meantime, I offer what will be the first in a series of posts that probe deep into the results of the federal election region by region, starting with Sydney and some of its immediate surrounds. Below are two colour-coded maps showing the two-party preferred swing at polling booth level, with each booth allocated a geographic catchment area built out of the “mesh blocks” that form the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ smallest unit of geographic analysis (typically encompassing about 30 dwellings). The image on the right encompasses the core of the city, while the second zooms further out. To get a proper look at either, click for an enlarged image.

In a pattern that will recur throughout this series, there is a clear zone of red in the inner city and the affluent, established eastern suburbs and northern beaches regions, giving way to an ocean of blue in the middle and outer suburbs. The occasional patches of red that break this up are often associated with sophomore surge effects, which played out to the advantage of Mike Freelander, who had no trouble retaining Macarthur (more on that below); Susan Templeman, who held out against a 2.0% swing in Macquarie; and Emma McBride, who survived a 3.3% swing in Dobell (albeit there was little to distinguish this from a 3.1% swing in neighbouring, Liberal-held Robertson).

The second part of our analysis compares the actual two-party results from the election with the results predicted by a linear regression model similar to, but more elaborate than, that presented here shortly after the election. This is based on the correlations observed across the nation between booth-level two-party results and the demography of booths’ catchment areas. The gory details of the model can be found here (the dependent variable being Labor’s two-party preferred percentage). The r-squared values indicate that the model explains 76.5% of the variation in the results – and doesn’t explain another 23.5%. Among the myriad unexplained factors that constitute the latter figure, the personal appeal (or lack thereof) of the sitting member (if any) might be expected to have a considerable bearing.

Such a model can be used to produce estimates that hopefully give some idea as to where the two parties were punching above and below their weight, and where the results were as we might have expected in view of broader trends. The latter more-or-less encompasses Lindsay, which was the only seat in the Sydney region to change hands between Labor and the Coalition (the only other change being Zali Steggall’s win over Tony Abbott in Warringah). The table below shows, progressively, the model’s estimate of Labor’s two-party vote, the actual result, and the difference between the two.

The first thing that leaps out is that the current leaders of both parties did exceptionally well, with their margins evidently being padded out by their substantial personal votes. Beyond that though, patterns get a little harder to discern. The Liberal-versus-independent contests in Warringah and Wentworth appear to have had very different effects on the Coalition’s two-party margins over Labor, which reduced to a remarkably narrow 2.1% as voters turned on Tony Abbott in Warringah, but remained solid at 9.8% in Wentworth, suggesting Dave Sharma may have accumulated a few fans through two recent campaigns and a dignified showing in the wake of the by-election defeat. That there was nonetheless a 7.9% two-party swing to Labor illustrates that he still has a way to go before he matches Malcolm Turnbull on this score.

The modelled result further emphasises the particularly good result Labor had in Macarthur, a seat the Liberals held from 1996 until 2016, when Russell Matheson suffered first an 8.3% reduction in his margin at a redistribution, and then an 11.7% swing to Labor’s Michael Freelander, a local paediatrician. At the May 19 election, the seat defied the national pattern in which outer urban seats that responded had unfavourably to Malcolm Turnbull swept back to the Liberals, with Freelander in fact managing the tiniest of swings in his favour. In addition to Freelander’s apparent popularity, this probably reflected a lack of effort put into the Liberal campaign, as the party narrowly focused on its offensive moves in Lindsay and Macquarie and defensive ones in Gilmore and Reid.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,549 comments on “Call of the board: Sydney”

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  1. Another 20 Democratic candidates debating over 2 nights in Detroit on CNN – surely they must do some aggressive culling soon?

    July 30

    Sen. Bernie Sanders, Sen. Elizabeth Warren, Mayor Pete Buttigieg, Sen. Amy Klobuchar, former Rep. Beto O’Rourke, Gov. Steve Bullock, former Rep. John Delaney, former Gov. John Hickenlooper, Rep. Tim Ryan and author Marianne Williamson.

    July 31

    Former Vice President Joe Biden, Sen. Kamala Harris, Sen. Cory Booker, former HUD Secretary Julián Castro, entrepreneur Andrew Yang, Sen. Michael Bennet, Mayor Bill de Blasio, Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand and Gov. Jay Inslee.

  2. Great column. And bonus is reintroducing the word Pygmalion into my realm, something I haven’t seen since high school English Lit. Why do I think of James Ashby when I hear the name Pygmalion…?

    In the Democratic party, a simmering insurgency by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and her “squad” of young socialist “progressives” broke out into open insurrection when Ocasio-Cortez deployed the ultimate weapon against Democratic Speaker Nancy Pelosi: She accused Pelosi of racism for “the explicit singling out of newly elected women of color” for criticism.

    The word “explicit” implies that Pelosi has been criticizing Ocasio-Cortez’s “squad”—Minnesota’s Ilhan Omar, Michigan’s Rashida Tlaib, and Ayanna Pressley of Massachusetts—because they are women of color.

    Of course, Pelosi has been doing no such thing. She has been targeting them because they are grandstanding loudmouths whose radicalism is threatening the re-election of the other freshman congressman who actually gave the Democrats their House majority. All four of the radical congresswomen were elected in “safe” Democratic seats. The current House majority was won in 2018 by getting Democrats to run as moderates in swing districts, yet these moderate Democrats were subsequently ignored by a press that has been fawning over four freshman congresswomen whose policies and style are toxic to the party’s national image. You’re damn right Pelosi has been trying to tamp them down.

    https://thebulwark.com/political-chaos-theory/

  3. Pegasus I well remember the Greens’ crocodile tears as they voted down the Malaysia solution. This is the statement made by the UNHCR at the time. Does any part of you now regret your party voting it down?

    By UNHCR Communications Group | 25 July 2011 | Français

    GENEVA – UNHCR notes the signature today of a bilateral Arrangement between Australia and Malaysia on transfer and resettlement.

    UNHCR is not a signatory to the Arrangement, however it appreciates that both Governments have consulted with the Office.

    UNHCR’s preference has always been an arrangement which would enable all asylum-seekers arriving by boat into Australian territory to be processed in Australia. This would be consistent with general practice.

    The current Arrangement worked out by both parties takes a different approach. It responds to the particular domestic and regional context of the asylum and migration situation in the Asia-Pacific region, which includes the need to address people smuggling challenges and, in particular, to prevent further loss of life at sea.

    UNHCR hopes that the Arrangement will in time deliver protection dividends in both countries and the broader region. It also welcomes the fact that an additional 4000 refugees from Malaysia will obtain a durable solution through resettlement to Australia. The potential to work towards safe and humane options for people other than to use dangerous sea journeys are also positive features of this Arrangement. In addition, the Malaysian Government is in discussions with UNHCR on the registration of refugees and asylum-seekers under the planned Government programme announced in June on the registration of all migrant workers.

    The Arrangement and its implementing guidelines contain important protection safeguards, including respect for the principle of non-refoulement; the right to asylum; the principle of family unity and best interests of the child; humane reception conditions including protection against arbitrary detention; lawful status to remain in Malaysia until a durable solution is found; and the ability to receive education, access to health care, and a right to employment.

  4. You see Pegasus, every time you excoriate Labor for Nauru and Manus, it reminds me that your party voted down a better opportunity.
    Every time you and Rex talk of torture I remember how your party turned their backs on a workable solution that the UNHCR supported, because you thought it gave you a political advantage.

    Spare me your hypocrisy. It makes me feel ill.

  5. Hear, hear, Kate! And I will never forget running into Sarah Hanson-Young conspiring with Shadow Immigration Minister, Scott Morrison, in the back corridors of Parliament House to vote down Labor’s Malaysia Solution.

    So it is simply the pinnacle of hypocrisy now for anyone associated with The Greens to bring their crocodile tears about the asylum seekers on Manus and Nauru to this blog. For those same asylum seekers would have been long gone onto new lives if only The Greens had supported Labor.

  6. Confessions @ #1152 Friday, July 19th, 2019 – 7:23 pm

    Great column. And bonus is reintroducing the word Pygmalion into my realm, something I haven’t seen since high school English Lit. Why do I think of James Ashby when I hear the name Pygmalion…?

    In the Democratic party, a simmering insurgency by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and her “squad” of young socialist “progressives” broke out into open insurrection when Ocasio-Cortez deployed the ultimate weapon against Democratic Speaker Nancy Pelosi: She accused Pelosi of racism for “the explicit singling out of newly elected women of color” for criticism.

    The word “explicit” implies that Pelosi has been criticizing Ocasio-Cortez’s “squad”—Minnesota’s Ilhan Omar, Michigan’s Rashida Tlaib, and Ayanna Pressley of Massachusetts—because they are women of color.

    Of course, Pelosi has been doing no such thing. She has been targeting them because they are grandstanding loudmouths whose radicalism is threatening the re-election of the other freshman congressman who actually gave the Democrats their House majority. All four of the radical congresswomen were elected in “safe” Democratic seats. The current House majority was won in 2018 by getting Democrats to run as moderates in swing districts, yet these moderate Democrats were subsequently ignored by a press that has been fawning over four freshman congresswomen whose policies and style are toxic to the party’s national image. You’re damn right Pelosi has been trying to tamp them down.

    https://thebulwark.com/political-chaos-theory/

    Never heard of the Bulwark before so I decided to do a search on what it stands for.

    On their about page there is this quote from a well known progressive:

    The true bulwark of our freedom and national independence is to be found in the souls of our people. Our greatest defense lies in their love of liberty and strength of character.” -Ronald Reagan

    It also claims that it is –

    The Bulwark is a project of the Defending Democracy Together Institute.

    Who are they you may well ask. Here’s what their banner headline states:

    We are conservatives and Republicans standing up for the rule of law, for free trade, and for more welcoming legal immigration policies.

    https://www.defendingdemocracytogether.org/

    Anyway, the upshot of that Orcasio-Cortez hit piece is it has as much credibility as an article on Tanya Plibersek published in The Australian.

  8. Boerwar says:
    Friday, July 19, 2019 at 6:22 pm
    ‘Pegasus says:
    Friday, July 19, 2019 at 6:17 pm

    The same broad pattern of increasing farm size and increasing corporatization is happening in irrigated agriculture.

    I was talking to a friend this afternoon. He is a director of a business that’s engaged in a specialty agriculture in WA’s south-west. The board had resolved to make a statement about the effect of climate change on their business, which is reliant on irrigation.

    He said the research showed there had been a 6% reduction in rainfall in his region since 1940. A further 6% fall was expected between this year and 2030. As the same time the average temperature is expected to rise by 1.24 degrees c. in 2030, when compared with the 20th century record. This will affect the evaporation rate from the soil surface and therefore the run-off into the dams. The combined effect will be to reduce water collected and stored for irrigation by 24% by 2030.

    This is in an area where more than 70% of agricultural relies on irrigation.

    Very large change. Very fast.

    We will all be parched in Green Valley.

  10. Dan G:

    I’ve been following the Bulwark for a while now, and the pieces I’ve read or listened to that they’ve published, the overwhelming sentiment is that they want Democrats to beat Trump and despair at the current crop of Dem leaders.

    AOC and her ‘Squad’ do not represent the voters Democrats need to win in those swing states.

  13. AOC and her squad espouse policies that are extremely popular. The claim that their views are extreme is false.

    Neoliberal centrists have been pushing unpopular policies for decades. They need to be defeated.

  14. Confessions @ #1160 Friday, July 19th, 2019 – 8:15 pm

    I’ve been following the Bulwark for a while now, and the pieces I’ve read or listened to that they’ve published, the overwhelming sentiment is that they want Democrats to beat Trump and despair at the current crop of Dem leaders.

    Just because someone wants Trump gone doesn’t make them friends of the Democrats.

    AOC and her ‘Squad’ do not represent the voters Democrats need to win in those swing states.

    It’s just as well they’re not running for office in those swing states then isn’t it? Since they were elected, it obviously proves they do represent the voters in their own districts though, and that is all that matters.

  15. Confessions says:
    Friday, July 19, 2019 at 10:18 pm
    briefly:

    Are you going to state conference next month?

    Yes….are you?

  16. I have some material in several parts of the platform…..environment, health, education, transport, economy….

    Expecting some of it will be adopted…. 🙂

  17. citizen says:
    Friday, July 19, 2019 at 1:47 pm

    Enough said.

    Abbott calls wind turbines ‘the dark Satanic Mills’ of the modern era

    “The last thing we want is what I regard as the dark Satanic Mills of the modern era spoiling our landscape,” the former PM said.

    23 minutes ago by Michael Koziol

    (SMH headline)

    Just thinking that Zeus was rightly pissed off with Prometheus when he gave man the gift of fire.

    Without the gift the World would be a very different place. 🙂

  18. Boerwar says:
    Friday, July 19, 2019 at 1:57 pm

    ‘Barney in Makassar says:
    Friday, July 19, 2019 at 12:25 pm

    lizzie says:
    Friday, July 19, 2019 at 12:01 pm

    Boerwar

    But what if they’ve done their ‘time’ and reformed?

    That’s not the point being made.’

    The issue NZ has is that these people have no connection to NZ apart from being a citizen.’

    There is an easy solution: the S44 equivalent.

    If you are a New Zealander wishing to break Australian laws repeatedly, damage or destroy Australian property, injure or kill Australian people, use up valuable Australian justice system resources and finally get yourself jailed at the cost of the Australian taxpayer, you must first renounce your New Zealand citizenship.

    Maybe you should start the,

    Just Say No Party,

    that seems to cover many of your policy positions of late.

  19. Rex Douglas says:
    Friday, July 19, 2019 at 2:39 pm

    I think there’s a reasonable argument to dis-allowing a failed HoR nomination from filling a vacancy in the senate for a period of time (6 yrs ..?)

    And that reasonable argument is?

  20. Victoria @ #1156 Friday, July 19th, 2019 – 10:07 pm

    Well I daresay this is why Trump targeted Omar and why it is giving Pelosi heartburn

    http://m.startribune.com/new-documents-revisit-questions-about-rep-ilhan-omar-s-marriage/511681362/

    Seriously? The president is a serial adulterer on his third wife who got his personal attorney locked up for paying illegal hush money to a porn star who described his genitals in great detail in her book and was accused of spousal rape by his first wife, but okay let’s forget that and talk about whether a Democratic Congresswoman married her brother?!

    If Pelosi (and the rest of the Democrats) can’t turn anything Trump says about anyone’s marriage right back at him and would rather worry about being damaged by the “married her brother” thing then the left is well and truly fucked.

  21. sprocket_ says:
    Friday, July 19, 2019 at 3:34 pm

    Would Nick McKim make a better leader for the Greens than Mr Richard ‘EmptySuit’ Di Natalie?

    McKim knows how to stay on message, is persistent and strikes me as a conviction politician. Everything RDN is not.

    McKim has a history of making a good point and saying something stupid, that then deflects the conversation away from his original point.

    He seems to be managing this now by saying very little.

  22. A significant part of the problem of Australia deporting NZ citizens with little connection to NZ other than place of birth and consequent citizenship is that Australia, unlike NZ (as demonstrated by Barnaby), does not automatically grant citizenship to overseas born children of Australian Citizens (who are born in Australia) and then uses this to clasify them as foreign for the purpose of deportations.

  23. I’ll bet newspoll will be LNP/alp 51/49. The pollsters have not published until they finally got a result with the LNP leading. Despite the hubris of the government and murdoch media, many people don’t like morrison or his crew. Shorten lost. The government did not win. Howevet, rhey will get ahead becausr albo has proved to be a very disappointing waste of fucking time. Next labor leader please.

  24. Barney in Makassar @ #1168 Friday, July 19th, 2019 – 9:33 pm

    Boerwar says:
    Friday, July 19, 2019 at 1:57 pm

    ‘Barney in Makassar says:
    Friday, July 19, 2019 at 12:25 pm

    lizzie says:
    Friday, July 19, 2019 at 12:01 pm

    Boerwar

    But what if they’ve done their ‘time’ and reformed?

    That’s not the point being made.’

    The issue NZ has is that these people have no connection to NZ apart from being a citizen.’

    There is an easy solution: the S44 equivalent.

    If you are a New Zealander wishing to break Australian laws repeatedly, damage or destroy Australian property, injure or kill Australian people, use up valuable Australian justice system resources and finally get yourself jailed at the cost of the Australian taxpayer, you must first renounce your New Zealand citizenship.

    Maybe you should start the,

    Just Say No Party,

    that seems to cover many of your policy positions of late.

    His main policy is saying yes to every bit of military equipment that comes on the market, despite the fact that the real threat to national security is from the cyberworld, all his toys are obsolete before the ink is dry on the contracts.

  25. Ye gods! Israel Folau (sorry, yes him again), even thinks Scott Morrison is going to hell!

    Scott Morrison is going to hell. So is Hillsong Pastor Brian Houston and most of the donors who gave money to former Wallaby star Israel Folau’s legal defence fund organised by the Australian Christian Lobby, according to the teachings of Folau’s church.

    The 30-strong congregation of the Truth of Jesus Christ Church, established by Folau’s father Eni in 2013, believes the “everlasting torture and doom” of hell awaits most Christians, with Catholicism seen as “the synagogue of Satan” and “masked devil worship”.

    https://www.smh.com.au/sport/why-the-pm-and-most-christians-are-going-to-hell-20190719-p528xx.html

    So when are we going to stand up and say that these people are preaching dangerous material and are seriously tetched to boot!?!

  26. C@t

    The 30-strong congregation of the Truth of Jesus Christ Church, established by Folau’s father Eni in 2013

    No wonder Folau has to be held on the straight and narrow by his father. He is the pin-up boy and flag waver for the new church.

  27. The man linked to the toxic West Footscray warehouse that erupted in flames last year has illegally buried 50 million litres of chemical waste on farmland in western Victoria, threatening the water supply for the Wimmera district.

    The stockpile is buried on land owned by Graham Leslie White, who is currently in prison for serious firearms offences and has been linked to at least nine other chemical dump sites uncovered in warehouses in Melbourne’s north.

    The underground stash, 15 kilometres from the town of Kaniva, is suspected to contain more than twice the amount of toxic waste already seized by authorities investigating what is the biggest illicit dumping operation in the state’s history.

    The Age can reveal the land is next door to farms producing a huge quantity of agricultural products for the Melbourne market, and a national park.

    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/massive-illegal-chemical-dump-found-buried-on-bush-block-in-country-victoria-20190719-p528y9.html

  28. lizzie @ #1176 Saturday, July 20th, 2019 – 6:50 am

    C@t

    The 30-strong congregation of the Truth of Jesus Christ Church, established by Folau’s father Eni in 2013

    No wonder Folau has to be held on the straight and narrow by his father. He is the pin-up boy and flag waver for the new church.

    Yes, I think I said at the time it first blew up that if Israel Folau hadn’t been a supremely gifted athlete (and genes not God gave that talent to him), then he would have been laughed out of town, but there’s something bewitching about athletes that lets people suspend disbelief and excuse them almost any behaviour. There are some devious people now exploiting that fact.

  29. lizzie,
    I don’t know if you know, but can that toxic dump creep be sent back to prison for the latest discovery? I hope they charge him again, and this time throw the key away to the cell they throw him into! 😡

  30. lizzie

    Disposal of chemical waste is hugely expensive for companies. Just as huge would be the temptation to get it done on the cheap and there would be plenty of cowboys ready to profit. Even then it is pretty horrifying to know what used to be just buried or poured out on site in the not too distant past. There would be some ‘orrible stuff lying about unbeknown to people. Where i currently work they used to process DDT,Aldrin products and all sorts of other lovely poisons and on site disposal was the norm back then. At least we know about it. many will not be so lucky.

  31. C@t and poroti

    I think they’ll pursue him for as many charges as they can, because he has been guilty of toxic fires already.

    I notice that the local Kaniva butcher is called Mr Bone. 🙂

  36. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    “Will Australia’s future over the next 40 years be bright or pretty ordinary? It could go either way, depending on how we respond to the challenges facing us. So what do we have to do to rise to the occasion?”, begins Ross Gittins in this confronting contribution.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/change-is-inevitable-if-we-embrace-it-we-win-resist-it-we-lose-20190718-p528l8.html
    Shane Wight explains how shackled the RBA has become.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/trapped-like-houdini-the-shackles-facing-the-reserve-bank-20190718-p528au.html
    And Josh Frydenberg roped RBA Governor Phillip Lowe into belting out a rendition of ‘Everything is Awesome, writes Tarric Brooker.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/josh-frydenberg-goes-full-trump-on-the-rba,12914
    Mike Seccombe explains how organised, connected and efficient, older voters have campaigned hard for concessions from the government and won time and again.
    https://outline.com/5GXGBq
    Kate McClymont gets inside the bullshit that is the Hillsong Church.
    https://www.smh.com.au/sport/why-the-pm-and-most-christians-are-going-to-hell-20190719-p528xx.html
    The Guardian has a feature article titled, “Australians’ faith in politics has collapsed – how can we reimagine democracy?”
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/commentisfree/2019/jul/19/australians-faith-in-politics-has-collapsed-how-can-we-reimagine-democracy
    The Sydney City Council and the developers don’t look too good with respect to the latest apartment building fiasco.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/toxic-secret-kept-from-owners-of-erskineville-units-20190719-p528vj.html
    The magnitude of the crisis facing Australia’s construction industry demands nothing short of a revolution, turning current building practice on its head to put quality and safety back on top where they belong. It’s all about greed and speed says architect Kathlyn Loseby.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/greed-and-speed-before-quality-the-equation-behind-sydney-s-building-crisis-20190719-p528so.html
    And architecture lecturer Geoff Hammer says that ministers are fiddling while buildings crack and burn.
    https://theconversation.com/ministers-fiddle-while-buildings-crack-and-burn-120592
    Meanwhile the certification agency that signs off on the majority of Australia’s building products has been temporarily suspended – and a company note to clients shows the suspension is related to combustible cladding.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/money/property/2019/07/20/certmark-international-suspended-combustible-cladding/
    Sarah Martin tells us how Morrison is trying to get politics off the front page.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jul/20/politics-off-the-front-page-is-part-of-scott-morrisons-bid-to-dial-down-the-volume
    Karen Middleton writes that the Coalition is divided on a First Nations voice.
    https://outline.com/fexgdr
    Peter FitzSimons calls for the removal of The Parrot from the board of the SCG.
    https://www.smh.com.au/sport/trust-me-jones-must-go-from-scg-after-goodes-saga-20190719-p528zj.html
    Paula Matthewson looks at Barnaby Joyce’s aspiration to regain the Nats’ leadership.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/world/2019/07/19/barnaby-joyce-leadership-ideas/
    The Australian Federal Police has added more confusion to the question of whether the AFP consults ministers before conducting raids, after its outgoing commissioner, Andrew Colvin, denied that it did so.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jul/19/afp-adds-more-confusion-about-whether-ministers-consulted-over-raids
    Nick O’Malley warns the government about sitting down to dinner with Trump.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/even-the-liberal-party-stands-to-be-embarrassed-by-donald-trump-20190719-p528w2.html
    Matt Holden introduces a new criterion for ethical eating.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/ethical-eating-it-starts-with-the-kitchen-hand-s-pay-packet-20190719-p528t4.html
    The AFR reports that the Coalition is putting a surplus ahead of raising Newstart.
    https://outline.com/gnbYzx
    Hidden accounts, rapacious insolvency tactics, greedy bankers. The pillage of Arrium has been a travesty for shareholders and creditors and begs the question: should short-selling laws be upgraded to save vital industries from financial ruin? Investor and shareholder activist Ben Pauley writes this oped for Michael West.
    https://www.michaelwest.com.au/barely-legal-arrium-a-fee-fest-for-financiers-a-misery-fest-for-shareholders/
    The Saturday Paper goes into how Australia’s private health insurance system is broken.
    https://outline.com/nDKehn
    Michael Koziol tells us how and why Barnaby Joyce changed his mind on an Indigenous voice.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/how-and-why-barnaby-joyce-changed-his-mind-on-an-indigenous-voice-20190719-p528uy.html
    Financial advisers are warning a regulatory “loophole” is being exploited by other advisers who are being paid lucrative commissions to sell risky listed investment companies (LICs) to retail investors and self-managed superannuation funds.
    https://outline.com/5AsHjF
    APRA has been told to change in a post-Hayne world, and politicians can’t just leave it to markets to sort out anymore, writes Laura Tingle.
    https://outline.com/Bsen8B
    Dana McCauley reports that former Queensland Nickel workers who claimed unpaid entitlements from a $7 million fund Clive Palmer established before the federal election are now facing the prospect of hefty tax bills.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/palmer-s-former-queensland-nickel-workers-facing-shock-tax-bill-20190719-p528pj.html
    Caroline Wilson writes that the AFL governors can’t leave Adam Goodes in the too-hard basket.
    https://www.smh.com.au/sport/afl/football-s-governors-can-t-leave-goodes-in-too-hard-basket-20190719-p528w3.html
    Matthew Knott explains how racism will be front and centre at the next US presidential election. Not a pretty picture.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/whites-feel-threatened-why-trump-s-race-tweet-is-a-preview-of-his-re-election-strategy-20190719-p528na.html
    And Chris Wallace examines the way Morrison has been cosying up to Trump and how this represents a test for him.
    https://outline.com/5Vm9RB
    Sam Maiden writes that Israel Folau has confirmed a last-ditch attempt to avert court action against Rugby Australia has failed. The Fair Work Commission issued a certificate on Friday confirming all reasonable attempts to resolve the dispute have been unsuccessful.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2019/07/19/talks-break-down-between-folau-rugby-australia/
    Kate Burgess explains how innocent bystanders are increasingly being impacted Australia’s national security laws.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6256747/is-the-government-watching-you/?cs=14225
    Abbott has not stopped being a Luddite!
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6283063/abbott-calls-wind-turbines-the-dark-satanic-mills-of-the-modern-era/?cs=14350
    Simon Cowan is concerned that the Indigenous Voice proposal fails to nail down the details.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6281880/indigenous-voice-proposal-fails-to-nail-down-the-details/?cs=14350
    The US president’s extreme rhetoric appeals to his supporters. But they will lose interest because his aims are unattainable writes Paul Jackson.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jul/19/donald-trump-archetypal-far-right-charismatic-leader
    The US/UK relationship is under growing strain, due to Trump’s interference in British politics as well as Britain’s refusal to back Trump’s positions on issues such as trade and the Iran nuclear deal. Boris Johnson’s work will be cut out.
    https://outline.com/f2q8yc
    People living in flight path say Melbourne Airport’s sudden change of mind on direction of third runway will result in an ‘unbelievable’ increase in noise from planes flying over their homes.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/residents-fear-deafening-noise-from-third-melbourne-airport-runway-20190719-p528wx.html
    Boris Johnson’s arrival in Downing Street could take the West further into the politics of provocation, personality and populism.
    https://outline.com/FGAVpC
    Jonathan Freedland tried to find an upside to a no deal Brexit but couldn’t.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jul/19/upside-no-deal-crashing-out-country-brexit
    Former PM Gordon Brown wants to save Britain but it might be too late for that says Ruth Wishart.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jul/19/gordon-brown-save-britain-scotland
    Asahi has bought out Carlton & Unites Breweries for $16 billion.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/iconic-brewer-cub-sold-to-japan-s-asahi-for-16-billion-20190719-p528xm.html
    Today’s “Arsehole of the Week” nomination.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/police-make-quick-arrest-to-remove-child-from-harm-of-79-year-old-charged-with-217-child-abuse-offences-20190719-p528qt.html
    Then again this serial arsehole excels himself as a huge illegal chemical dump has been found buried on bush block in country Victoria.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/massive-illegal-chemical-dump-found-buried-on-bush-block-in-country-victoria-20190719-p528y9.html

    Cartoon Corner

    Alan Moir does it again!

    David Rowe on the anniversary of the moon landing.

    Matt Davidson looks to the future.

    Jim Pavlidis on the current state of US politics.

    From Matt Golding.

    Peter Broelman.

    One from Zanetti’s heart.

    Jon Kudelka modernises the moon landing.
    https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/9d5cca4b6b4219537d01857d234aa7ba?width=1024

    From the US









  37. Well done the Coalition and enot forgetting youse Bananabenders . This needs to be let widely known. How many years have you heard the Great Barrier Reef described as the world’s largest reef ? Well due to all the dying off it no longer is. Come on down Belize to now lay claim to the title of the world’s largest.

    Belize Barrier Reef
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belize_Barrier_Reef

  38. Thanks BK. Mike Seccombe reminds us how over-entitled and selfish older voters are.

    When John Howard stumped up for re-election in 2001, 56 per cent of over-65s voted for the Coalition, while 34 per cent voted Labor. By 2016, the percentage voting for the Liberal or National parties had grown marginally to 57 per cent. But Labor’s share had fallen dramatically, to just 28. The difference between the Coalition gain and the Labor loss reflects a general trend towards minor parties, Bean says.

    It is a lucrative symbiosis. In exchange for their votes, older Australians get many benefits.

    A series of spending and tax decisions taken in the early 2000s – the tax-free superannuation withdrawals, the franking credit rebates, the generosity of the seniors’ tax offsets, as well as other measures not restricted to older Australians but which disproportionately benefit them, such as the treatment of capital gains and negative gearing – have massively skewed the system towards older Australians.

    The result is growing generational inequality. It’s obvious in the data on wealth and incomes: according to the Grattan Institute, the average household aged 55 to 64 was $300,000 richer in 2018 than that same household back in 2003. For the 64-to-74 age group, the difference was more than $500,000. Despite this, the proportion of over-65s paying tax almost halved in that period. By contrast, those in the 25-to-34 age bracket saw almost no change in their net wealth.

  40. lizzie @ #1189 Saturday, July 20th, 2019 – 8:07 am

    Love this.

    Peta Credlin’s daily show, Credlin, is regularly outranked by repeats of Peppa Pig.

    I’ll probably get howled down for this but I reckon Peta Credlin’s show should be called, ‘Putting Lipstick On A Pig’. However, I’m not referring to her but to the barrows she pushes.

  41. Ready, aim, fire!
    Is an exaggeration the same as a lie? Is a lie just an embellishment of the truth?

    In a speech to party faithful at the Greens national conference in Adelaide later on Saturday, Di Natale will say that he had hoped “finally putting the last six years of turmoil and division behind us” but instead faced “an embolden conservative government”.

    “[A government] stacked with climate deniers and hellbent on taking us down the US path with a permanent underclass of working poor, obscene wealth in the hands of a tiny and powerful few and, a worldview that sees our natural world as something to exploit for corporate greed rather than protect for future generations,” he says.

    But he saves some of his strongest criticism for the Australian Labor party, who he accuses of abandoning its ideals.

    “Even worse, they’re being helped by a Labor party that seems to be taking all of the wrong lessons from the election and think that the way to defeat the tories is by becoming just like them,” Di Natale will say.

    “In the past few weeks they’ve turned their back on 100 years of support for progressive taxation and voted with the Coalition to gut our tax system, open up the Galilee basin to more coal mining and refusing to increase Newstart.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/20/alp-morphing-into-facsimile-of-coalition-says-greens-leader-richard-di-natale?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=soc_568&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1563572898

    But a true progressive, Doug Cameron, says

    “I’ve said on many occasions, that I had never felt more comfortable with Labor party policy than with the policies we took to the last election,” he said.

    “… We must properly analyse why such a progressive and beneficial policy agenda for working class Australians failed to deliver government to the ALP.

  42. Abbott has not stopped being a Luddite!
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6283063/abbott-calls-wind-turbines-the-dark-satanic-mills-of-the-modern-era/?cs=14350

    He’s also an idiot. The Dark Satanic Mills were horrible places inside, where the heat and the noise and the smell and the poisonous fumes were horrible places to be in the Industrial Revolution.

    The criticism of wind turbines is usually of their external appearance, and the unfounded belief that their noise causes illness. Hardly the same thing.

    And, while on the subject of wind farms, Bob Brown has written a self-serving piece, in today’s The Saturday Paper. Make of it what you will:

    The wind farm proponent, Hong Kong-based UPC Renewables, says it will put a one-kilometre exclusion zone around the two sea eagle nests on Robbins Island. But who will tell the eagles not to fly more than that kilometre from their nests? The giant ailerons – those proposed for Robbins Island will spin to 270 metres high – driving wind turbines knock hunting eagles to the ground.

    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/opinion/topic/2019/07/20/the-robbins-island-wind-farm-debate/15635448008477

    Sounds a bit Sinophobic and overdramatic to me but I would be interested to know what our resident bird expert, lizzie, thinks. 🙂

  43. The flip side of the coin is that more species are threatened by climate change than by the existence of windfarms.

    So whilst I find articles such as this one concerning —

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-07-04/wildlife-expert-nick-mooney-calls-for-windfarm-eagle-death-study/11274334

    — I think the response should be along these lines —

    ‘The Cattle Hill Windfarm, which is still under construction, has committed to trailing new technology to prevent eagles being kill in turbines.

    It will install monitoring towers to identify when an eagle is in the flight path of a turbine and shut it down.’

  44. The ACL might be regretting its decision to take on the fundraising for Folau, now that he reckons pretty well all Christians (except his church of 30 people) are destined for Hell.

    The people who donated that $200,000 for Folau might also feel somewhat unhappy that he reckons they are also headed for eternal damnation.

    More importantly, how will this play out politically with the proposed religious freedom legislation?

  49. I can’t rmember if BK including this in yesterdays Dawn Patrol. If he did, it’s worth posting again. If not it’s something everyone should be aware of, especially the Murdoch/Stokes/Costello/IPABC media cartel who constantly beat the “dole bludger” drum.

    For decades the popular stereotype of “dole bludgers” and “job snobs” in Australia has been of a bronzed surfer in Byron Bay or a stoned high school dropout on A Current Affair.

    But what if everything we knew about the people on the dole was wrong?

    The real face of Australia’s unemployed is a mature-age worker.

    These workers are likely to spend much longer on Newstart because they struggle to find full-time work again. In fact, some never do.

    “They are losing their jobs in their 50s. The government and the private sector seem to be fond of shedding what they call mature-age workers,” Mr Henschke said.

    The lowest age bracket in Australia based on the number of unemployed is the youngest. There are just 62,526 people aged between 21 and 24 on Newstart.

    The Department of Social Services has found that the number of weeks spent on Newstart jumps sharply from the age of 40 and it keeps climbing higher the older you get.

    Under-25s spend on average 45 weeks – or just less than a year – on the dole, but by the age of 50 that has blown out to 188 weeks or close to four years.

    By the time that’s over, for many older Australians who can’t find work, it’s time to roll over to the pension.

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2019/07/17/surprising-age-newstart/

  50. Lindsey Graham: As long as you’re wearing a MAGA hat, Trump ‘won’t send you back’

    As the backlash continues to swirl around President Trump’s recent tweets that targeted four progressive congresswomen of color, Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC) got caught in a gaggle of reporters who asked him to respond to Trump’s comments, which his opponents say are racist.

    “Here’s what think: I think the President is playing on the 1968 ‘Love it or Leave it,’” Graham said, referring a late 1960s slogan that targeted Vietnam war protesters. “I’ve said before that if you’re a Somali refugee wearing a MAGA hat, he doesn’t want to send you back. You’d probably have dinner at the White House.”

    https://deadstate.org/lindsey-graham-as-long-as-youre-wearing-a-maga-hat-trump-wont-send-you-back/

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