Another two bite the dust

Party deregistrations, issues polling, and locally relevant discussion of the performance of online pollsters in the US.

Some unrelated electoral news nuggets to keep things ticking over:

• The Australian Electoral Commission has announced the deregistration of two right-wing minor parties, the more newsworthy of which was Cory Bernardi’s decision to decommission Australian Conservatives. This party owed its party registration to Bernardi’s position in the Senate, rather than its having 500 members, so the matter was entirely in his hands. In a sense, this also means an end to Family First, which won Senate seats at the 2004, 2013 and 2016 elections and had a presence in the South Australian upper house from 2002 to 2017, when it merged with Bernardi’s newly formed outfit. However, Family First appeared to lose energy as evangelical Christians increasingly preferred to direct their organisational efforts towards the Liberal Party, and was dominated in its later years by deep-pocketed former Senator Bob Day. Even further afield, the Rise Up Australia party, associated with controversial pastor Danny Nalliah of Catch the Fire Ministries, has voluntarily deregistered.

• JWS Research has released the latest results in its occasional series on issue salience, recording only one particularly noteworthy movement over the past three surveys: defence, security and terrorism, which only 20% now rate in the top five issues most warranting the attention of the federal government, down from 23% in February and 29% in November. “Performance index” measures for the government across the various issue areas have recorded little change post-election, except that “vision, leadership and quality of government” is up from 35% to 42% (which is still the fifth lowest out of 20 designated issue areas). The survey was conducted from June 26-30 from a sample of 1000.

• In the New York Times’ Upshot blog, Nate Cohn casts a skeptical eye over the record of online polling in the United States. It notes a Pew Research finding that YouGov’s “synthetic sampling” method achieves the best results out of the online pollsters, by which it “selects individuals from its panel of respondents, one by one, to match the demographic profile of individual Americans”. Another survey that performed relatively well, VoteCast, did so by concurrently conducting a huge sample phone poll, results of which were used to calibrate the online component.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,381 comments on “Another two bite the dust”

  1. Simon² Katich® says:

    Thursday, July 11, 2019 at 4:24 pm
    Business Mates who got half a billion to ‘save’ the Reef nowhere to be found.

    They are at a function. Or a lunch. Or a meeting. Or a conference. Or a team building exercise. …………………………………………

    Surely you now have a better picture of exactly it is that they are doing.

    😆 You’ve had experience working with them then.

  2. Democracy Busters R Us

    Omerta Section

    Chapter: Business mates who got half a billion dollars stay 100% schtum on the horrible condition of the Reef.

  3. “A-E
    You did. The thing that is killing the GBR and will kill it stone (sic) dead is global warming. All the other perturbances are mere ebbing ripples along the increasingly short road to a dead pond.”

    Yeah. nah. The GBR will be stone cold dead in 5 years. maybe 10 at the outside. Other tropical reefs will be holding on for up to another 50 years before Global Warming claims them.

  4. “Democracy Busters R Us

    Omerta Section

    Chapter: Business mates who got half a billion dollars stay 100% schtum on the horrible condition of the Reef.”

    But … How good is the lobster at Qualia?

    How good is ScoMo?

  5. ‘poroti says:
    Thursday, July 11, 2019 at 4:49 pm

    Perhaps the coral reefs will migrate South along the coast to cooler climes ?’

    I was speaking to a marine park manager the other day and guess what…
    … it is happening now. But, as always, it is a rate, scale and disruption matter. Big picture: those little larvae are gunna be far too slow.

  6. “Perhaps the coral reefs will migrate South along the coast to cooler climes ?”

    We are already seeing corals commonly found in the northern reef cropping up in the southern reef and down to Harvey and Morton Bay. However, nitrogen runoff is a killer all the way down to Coffs Harbour. Plus, certain corals can only exist in ‘just right’ conditions close to the surface. These ones are stranded. So, the reef is dead. There is some escapees, but global warming anoxia will claim everything eventually. Happy days.

  7. We are already seeing corals commonly found in the northern reef cropping up in the southern reef and down to Harvey and Morton Bay.

    irukandji and crocs are also heading south. Soon the “swim between the flags” QLD tourism ad will be a bad joke.

  8. “Yeah, where’s the GBRF on this?

    Check out their landing page, looks like a tourist company promo.

    https://www.barrierreef.org/”

    Talk about photo shopped: those beautiful pictures are reminiscent of the reef I first saw 30 years ago. Not now. I also love how the GBRF brag that 80 cents in every dollar they receive goes to the reef, and ‘only’ 20 cents for ‘administration’. So … out of that $432 million grant, ‘only’ $86 million gets spent on the lobster at Qualia. Faaark.

  9. The Great Barrier Reef Foundation is part of the Omerta Section.
    If you study the projects they fund they are all End of Days projects: breeding new hardy coral types, killing COTs, saving tiny bits for the tourism industry. That sort of thing.
    Although the stated aim is saving the GBR, it is clear that they are investing in palliative care.

    If the Foundation was at all serious, it SHOULD have spent half a billion in advertising against the Coalition during the last election.

    But see the Omerta Section.

  10. I was talking to my 19 year old daughter about this last night.

    Basically she said they’re all giving up in despair because they think they can’t make a difference.

    Party while you can attitude seeping in.

  11. “Chapter: The GBR Foundation charges taxpayers a 20% administration fee.”

    Freshly imported lobster for conference diners are Qualia is prohibitively expensive when all the local crayfish are extinct.

  12. </blockquote

    Basically she said they’re all giving up in despair because they think they can’t make a difference. Party while you can attitude seeping in.

    Sure. But despair can turn into anger and protest given the right catalyst.
    I have noticed the news items on climate change have increased and turning dark. This shit is real. It is scary. Reality is sinking in and resentment is bubbling just below the surface.

  13. There is a time and space issue with coral reef migration.
    Current reefs are chronologically associated with rates of growth of both land rise/fall and sea level rise/fall.
    If the relevant changes are slow enough, reefs can gain height as sea levels gain height, for example, and stay in the zone of light needed for coral growth.
    A reef cannot migrate through water that is too deep for light to penetrate.
    Individual species, by way of larval dispersion, can migrate.
    But if the benthos is too deep, they are fucked if they get there.
    This is the same principle that explains why many montaine species will go extinct with global warming. Species can retreat until the hit the peaks and then there is nowhere left to go.
    Poof! Gone.

  14. My point about Psyclaw is that he/she never argues his/her case. (S)he just makes plenary statements that arise from a moronic certainty that (s)he is correct, that what (s)he believes is therefore self-evident.

    It follows that anyone who disagrees with him/her is plain wrong. If they persist in disagreeing, (s)he expresses pity for them. Next comes anger, a big part of Psyclaw’s approach to problem solving and readoned debate. Finally, when all else fails, the insults start.

    (S)he uses labels like “Old White Man” as if being above a certain age, of caucasian appearance and male places an automatic discount, if not worthlessness, on anything that person might believe, or even have to say.

    At the same time (s)he defends homosexuals (for example) because they can’t help their sexuality. Not being able to help who or what they are is an absolute defence, requiring no further elaboration, but only if you’re gay. This absolute defence is not offered to “Old White Men”, however. Instead the term is flung around as an insult.

    There is no Uncertainty Principle where Psyclaw is concerned. (S)he brooks no disagreement, but never explains why (s)he is right all the time. I mean it should be obvious. No need to explain anything. Just pronounce. Then pity. Then shout. Then insult. Anyone can be the target, be they before the Courts defending themselves, or just posting here.

    This is the perfect description of a bigot. Cocksure, narcissistic, and ready to condemn anyone who doesn’t see it their way. Psyclaw just doesn’t realize how bigoted (s)he is. That’s the funny part.

  15. Simon² Katich

    That’s what I told her, the time to hit the streets is now.

    I’m hoping I’m wrong but I don’t think government is going to help us out here.

  16. I get the impression that some have got the mojo back here. The crowers/misery gut/nay-sayers/doomsters s are getting bored and everyone else is getting bored with them
    The election is a fading memory as the Morrison government starts to pick up the on the disfunction it was famous for before the election. The B-Team has come into bat, they still have the same problems they had – one ordinary batsman who thinks god is on his side, and a batting tail which stretches from first drop to No.11. All the other talent either retired or were pole axed………………..
    One would think that a Referendum would be the last thing on anyone’s mind at the moment, and while there is merit in the proposal, the LNP with their right-wing ideology, cannot even agree among themselve whether to support it or not…………………..What a fiasco……………………….And the Murdoch press claim Labor has got off to a bad start.
    Meanwhile, the Stoke’s West has not had the stomach to make any kind of news item of two business surveys in the last couple of days which suggest business and consumer confidence has not picked up despite god’s man at the helm………..
    Now, if there had been some kind of pick up, it would have been front page news in our local rag……………………

  17. I’ve been trying to get the economy going again. I bought a new dish drainer and a new handbag at KMart the other day. There weren’t too many other people there willing to join in the task of putting shoulder to the wheel with me. 🙁

  18. C@tmomma says:
    Thursday, July 11, 2019 at 6:01 pm
    I’ve been trying to get the economy going again. I bought a new dish drainer and a new handbag at KMart the other day. There weren’t too many other people there willing to join in the task of putting shoulder to the wheel with me.
    _____________________
    Why not pick up a couple of bottles of thirst quencher whilst your at it?

  19. C@tmomma @ #1175 Thursday, July 11th, 2019 – 6:01 pm

    I’ve been trying to get the economy going again. I bought a new dish drainer and a new handbag at KMart the other day. There weren’t too many other people there willing to join in the task of putting shoulder to the wheel with me. 🙁

    Well we just bought a new fridge, although none now sadly made in Australia. The old one, made in Orange, lasted over 20 years!

  20. With any prospect of a Labor government 6 years away – 3 years if Miracle Man goes under a bus – the discussion threads here are pretty, well…boring.
    I wonder if it’s because the federal parliamentary Labor party seems to have gone into hibernation….I don’t think they really want to win the next election, or the one after.
    Did they learn nothing from Abbott.
    Chip away,
    Every day.

  21. mundo @ #1179 Thursday, July 11th, 2019 – 6:18 pm

    With any prospect of a Labor government 6 years away – 3 years if Miracle Man goes under a bus – the discussion threads here are pretty, well…boring.
    I wonder if it’s because the federal parliamentary Labor party seems to have gone into hibernation….I don’t think they really want to win the next election, or the one after.
    Did they learn nothing from Abbott.
    Chip away,
    Every day.

    “chip away, every day”

    Yes.. it’s not that hard.

    Simple, catchy messaging. The MSM love that stuff for the news grabs and social media catches fire.

  22. poroti @ #1157 Thursday, July 11th, 2019 – 4:49 pm

    Perhaps the coral reefs will migrate South along the coast to cooler climes ?

    The lowest extent of east coast reef is at Lord Howe Island – off Port Macquarie. We were there before Easter, and they were recovering from a shocker summer. There was clear evidence of reef death in the lagoon. The critical water temperature is 27C.

  23. mikeh

    Julia’s back. Lots of smiles and I hope that’s the end of Stan Grant.
    First subject Press Freedom and only one miserable conservative voice.

  24. Rex Douglas says:
    Thursday, July 11, 2019 at 6:27 pm
    mundo @ #1179 Thursday, July 11th, 2019 – 6:18 pm

    With any prospect of a Labor government 6 years away – 3 years if Miracle Man goes under a bus – the discussion threads here are pretty, well…boring.
    I wonder if it’s because the federal parliamentary Labor party seems to have gone into hibernation….I don’t think they really want to win the next election, or the one after.
    Did they learn nothing from Abbott.
    Chip away,
    Every day.
    “chip away, every day”

    Yes.. it’s not that hard.

    Simple, catchy messaging. The MSM love that stuff for the news grabs and social media catches fire.
    __________________________
    A lot of defeatists and careerists in Labor’s ranks Rex. Albo needs to organise a purge to instill fighting spirit.

  25. Lars Von Trier @ #1180 Thursday, July 11th, 2019 – 6:17 pm

    C@tmomma says:
    Thursday, July 11, 2019 at 6:01 pm
    I’ve been trying to get the economy going again. I bought a new dish drainer and a new handbag at KMart the other day. There weren’t too many other people there willing to join in the task of putting shoulder to the wheel with me.
    _____________________
    Why not pick up a couple of bottles of thirst quencher whilst your at it?

    Your obscurantist slip is showing, LVT.

  26. Just back to PB after being away all arvo.

    Just glanced through comments and noticed a self justification by BB, as expected because I question this self appointed guru of all things in the universe.

    I read the first line along the lines “what I meant about Psyclaw ….”

    Then I gave the wheel a nudge.

  27. One political adage that the Greens cannot grasp is that perfect is the enemy of good.

    Oh look one trite and meaningless statement again, how unsurprising here

    So in this case I’d say that the perfect would be more and unlimited coal, gas and fossil fuels, going on forever, as the Lib-Nat-Lab-PHON coalition voted for and have shown in supporting the Beetaloo basin CSG development. The major parties and their fossil fuel donors going on for ever and ever in a warm and financially rewarding embrace, with no difficult questions being asked thank you. The perfect result for some it seems.

    Whereas the good would be planning for a 100% renewables economy in Australia as soon as possible, and a more sustainable and ecological human civilisation on Earth. So you know, your kids and grand kids, and most other forms of life on earth, have a decent chance to avoid being destroyed by our mess and idiocies. Sounds good to many I’m sure as well.

    For any who still can’t fathom the reality of 100% renewable Australia I give you Prof Andrew Blakers.
    Interestingly enough there has been some very recent research suggesting that PV efficiency may actually make it over the current theoretical 30% point he describes in here. Less than two years ago and things are still advancing.
    https://reneweconomy.com.au/solar-cell-efficiency-could-get-a-dramatic-boost-mit-team-finds-34051/

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Lk3elu3zf4

  28. To be fair to Lib lite I suppose there’s not much to pick at from their current point of view.

    They can’t really go hard on climate change/energy policy because they back the coal industry.

    They can’t really go hard on lack of funding for social services because they want more tax cuts.

    They can’t really go hard on Duttons Home Affairs/OSB because they back Home Affairs/OSB.

    They can’t really go hard on press freedom as they voted for the stronger laws.

    Hmmm…

  29. mundo @ #1181 Thursday, July 11th, 2019 – 6:18 pm

    With any prospect of a Labor government 6 years away – 3 years if Miracle Man goes under a bus – the discussion threads here are pretty, well…boring.
    I wonder if it’s because the federal parliamentary Labor party seems to have gone into hibernation….I don’t think they really want to win the next election, or the one after.
    Did they learn nothing from Abbott.
    Chip away,
    Every day.

    And yet the LNP just won an election by doing virtually nothing. Labor could go on holiday for 2 1/2 years and just leave the conservatives to cannibalise each other. There is absolutely no clear pathway for Labor because of a misinformed and often ignorant electorate.

  30. Rex Douglas says:
    Thursday, July 11, 2019 at 6:50 pm
    ___________________
    That’s why I think an orderly liquidation of the ALP in a mature and adult way makes the most sense! We can reboot politics in a contemporary and relevant way once this happens.

  31. mikehilliard

    It was quite a good discussion on how the Q of Indigenous representation has already been framed by gov members (Turnbull, etc) so that it may fail, until that awful loud voiced lawyer female took over. OTOH Caroline Overington was excellent, surprisingly.

  32. Lars Von Trier says:
    Thursday, July 11, 2019 at 6:53 pm

    Rex Douglas says:
    Thursday, July 11, 2019 at 6:50 pm
    ___________________
    That’s why I think an orderly liquidation of the ALP in a mature and adult way makes the most sense! We can reboot politics in a contemporary and relevant way once this happens.
    ___________________
    perhaps also a Truth and Reconciliation Commission might be established too. Perhaps the Chiquita mushroom workers might be good enough to forgive Shorten for his role replacing them with a labour hire company. There will be many crimes that will need to be forgiven.

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