Another two bite the dust

Party deregistrations, issues polling, and locally relevant discussion of the performance of online pollsters in the US.

Some unrelated electoral news nuggets to keep things ticking over:

• The Australian Electoral Commission has announced the deregistration of two right-wing minor parties, the more newsworthy of which was Cory Bernardi’s decision to decommission Australian Conservatives. This party owed its party registration to Bernardi’s position in the Senate, rather than its having 500 members, so the matter was entirely in his hands. In a sense, this also means an end to Family First, which won Senate seats at the 2004, 2013 and 2016 elections and had a presence in the South Australian upper house from 2002 to 2017, when it merged with Bernardi’s newly formed outfit. However, Family First appeared to lose energy as evangelical Christians increasingly preferred to direct their organisational efforts towards the Liberal Party, and was dominated in its later years by deep-pocketed former Senator Bob Day. Even further afield, the Rise Up Australia party, associated with controversial pastor Danny Nalliah of Catch the Fire Ministries, has voluntarily deregistered.

• JWS Research has released the latest results in its occasional series on issue salience, recording only one particularly noteworthy movement over the past three surveys: defence, security and terrorism, which only 20% now rate in the top five issues most warranting the attention of the federal government, down from 23% in February and 29% in November. “Performance index” measures for the government across the various issue areas have recorded little change post-election, except that “vision, leadership and quality of government” is up from 35% to 42% (which is still the fifth lowest out of 20 designated issue areas). The survey was conducted from June 26-30 from a sample of 1000.

• In the New York Times’ Upshot blog, Nate Cohn casts a skeptical eye over the record of online polling in the United States. It notes a Pew Research finding that YouGov’s “synthetic sampling” method achieves the best results out of the online pollsters, by which it “selects individuals from its panel of respondents, one by one, to match the demographic profile of individual Americans”. Another survey that performed relatively well, VoteCast, did so by concurrently conducting a huge sample phone poll, results of which were used to calibrate the online component.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,381 comments on “Another two bite the dust”

  1. Sure holds true when you look at the big BOO HISS people re climate change in the Coalition.
    .
    .
    Authoritarians are less willing to make sacrifices for the environment

    Journal reference: PLOS ONE , DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0219067
    ENVIRONMENT 10 July 2019
    y

    People who hold authoritarian views or endorse unequal social hierarchies are less willing to make sacrifices for the environment than the average person. These findings come from a study of thousands of people in New Zealand.

    Samantha Stanley at the University of Canberra and her colleagues looked at the New Zealand Attitudes and Values Study, a nationally representative study of social attitudes, personality and health collected over a 20-year period.
    https://www.newscientist.com/article/2209377-authoritarians-are-less-willing-to-make-sacrifices-for-the-environment/

  2. In other sports news, Gallop has finally quit as CEO of the FFA. He will be looking for another sport to wreck now.

    Gallop was a handy cricketer……

  3. Ken Wyatt does seem to be one of the better “Liberals” but I have to admit I’ve had a rather jaundiced view of him since he appeared on a podium with Tony Abbott, Bronwyn Bishop and other deplorables under that sign with “Ditch the Witch” and other, more disgusting insults directed against then Prime Minister Julia Gillard.

  4. Steve777

    I’m a bit ‘jaundiced’ too. I think he’s a follower, not a leader. Will make the right noises but won’t want to raise any hackles.

  5. Dan Gulberry:

    [‘The problem being that both Setka and Albo have given the Libs and their propaganda arms ammunition to attack unions in general and by default Labor as well.’]

    In my view, Albo’s prompt action of referring Setka’s matter to the National Executive took the wind out of the Tory sails, despite the evidence concerning his (Setka’) reference to Rosie Batty not on the face of it appearing all that strong.

  6. Diogenes

    New Zealand cheated to beat India. Their iconic run out of Dhoni should have been a no ball and free hit as they had five fielders outside the circle.

    The weak point of your argument is that you can still be run out off a no ball.

  7. Kakuru @ #1095 Thursday, July 11th, 2019 – 12:31 pm

    Sir Henry P.
    “I agree with you adrian. Equally, the Greens and their supporters could stop incessantly attacking Labor at every opportunity and concentrate on the real enemy: the Coalition.”

    Wow, wouldn’t that be nice. You Greens should give that a go – if only for the novelty value.

    In other words the Greens should keep quiet when Labor does something which the Greens oppose?

    Interesting.

    What should the Greens do when Labor votes for something that Labor is opposed to? Stay quiet as well?

  8. Dan G
    “In other words the Greens should keep quiet when Labor does something which the Greens oppose?”

    Of course not. But don’t lose your shit over it. Honestly, focus on who the real enemy is.

  9. Dan Gulberry says:
    Thursday, July 11, 2019 at 2:55 pm
    Kakuru @ #1095 Thursday, July 11th, 2019 – 12:31 pm

    Sir Henry P.
    “I agree with you adrian. Equally, the Greens and their supporters could stop incessantly attacking Labor at every opportunity and concentrate on the real enemy: the Coalition.”

    Wow, wouldn’t that be nice. You Greens should give that a go – if only for the novelty value.

    In other words the Greens should keep quiet when Labor does something which the Greens oppose?

    Interesting.

    What should the Greens do when Labor votes for something that Labor is opposed to? Stay quiet as well?
    ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
    Of course not Dan. I thought I made clear that there were legitimate differences between Labor and the Greens and either party is justified in attacking the other when those differences arise.
    My point was not to attack Labor “at every opportunity”. Don’t say ridiculous things such as Labor’s policy on climate change is the same as the Coalition’s or that Labor supports getting rid of progressive taxation.
    Similarly, I don’t think it helps when Labor people call the Greens Liberal-lite or suggest that party is in cahoots with the Coalition to destroy Labor.

  10. Dan Gulberry @2:55

    “In other words the Greens should keep quiet when Labor does something which the Greens oppose?”

    No. The reverse also applies.

    Of course Labor and the Greens won’t agree on everything, just as the “Liberals” and Nationals don’t.

    However, many Greens seem to have decided that the main game is competing with Labor over shares of a fixed pie of Centre-Left votes rather than helping to try to expand the pie.

  11. JW
    Yes evidently it should have been called no ball, Dhoni still run out but they get a free hit next ball which wouldn’t have saved India. It actually was a magnificent performance by NZ. If they play the Poms in the final, it’s easy to know who we want to win.

  12. “My point was not to attack Labor “at every opportunity”. Don’t say ridiculous things such as Labor’s policy on climate change is the same as the Coalition’s or that Labor supports getting rid of progressive taxation.”

    Yep, that’s exactly the kinds of things I had in mind when I said the Greens shouldn’t lose their shit over everything Labor does. Well said Sir Henry.

  13. When will those road safety nazis stop tying the trucking industry up in red tape so that we can save another 1% on the cost of getting produce to supermarkets. If a few innocent people die in the process, surely its worth it?
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jul/11/victoria-bus-crash-driver-dies-trailer-highway-pimpinio?utm_term=RWRpdG9yaWFsX0d1YXJkaWFuVG9kYXlBVVMtMTkwNzEx&utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=GuardianTodayAUS&CMP=GTAU_email

    [Libertarian mode off]
    This crash, apart from the personal tragedy, highlights how the wheels have fallen off Australia’s road safety efforts. Our road toll is rising, after three decades of falls, despite the crashworthiness of new cars steadily rising. That highway has no median barrier, which might have reduced the severity of the crash,and would have prevented the other lanes being blocked. The B double would have weighed (legally) up to 64 tonnes, triple the mass of the bus. The driver left the road trying to avoid it, but could not. It was 2AM, so visibility would have been poor, yet the police officer questions the (dead) bus driver’s response. And how does a properly maintained truck lose two trailers hitched to a fifth wheel coupling?

    With seat belt laws and random breath testing Australia was once a world leader at road safety. Now we are on the OECD average. All states promised to introduce a “Safe Systems” philosophy in the 2000s. There has been little funding to implement it. No safety based regulation on car standards has been implemented since 2006. More than a decade later we are not close to meeting our self-set road safety targets.

    This is not a criticism of (only) the current transport minister. It is a damning critique of every Federal and state transport minister for the past 15 years.

  14. Democracy Busters R Us

    Death Promotion Section

    Chapter: Reduce OH&S regulations. Kill or maim thousands of workers a year.
    Chapter: Reduce union role in the workplace. Kill or maim thousands of workers a year.

  15. Told you Morrison would shilly-shally.

    BelindaJones68
    3h3 hours ago

    Karen Andrews – Undecided
    Craig Kelly – No
    James Paterson – No
    Amanda Stoker – No
    Scott Morrison – Undecided

    So far I’ve only found ONE Coalition MP who has said definitively that he supports the referendum and that’s Ken Wyatt.
    Why isn’t the govt supporting Wyatt?

  16. Democracy Busters R Us

    Screw the Underclass Section

    Chapter: Michael Hill Jewelers says it underpaid staff by as much as $25,000,000.

  17. As usual on issues of social standing or conscience, PM Morrison either abstains or is undecided.

    How has the country got to this stage?

    Then we have Josh Fraudenberg with only his tax cuts to stimulate the economy so he can get his headline – “Budget in Surplus” – for the next election. Well I don’t particularly want this to happen but it probably will due to his own inaction, the recession in 2020/2021. At that point, it will be of his own making and the government will then be required to explain why.

  18. Itza:

    [‘Now, Morrison wouldn’t be setting this up to fail, and get it off the agenda for another 20 years, would he? Surely not.’]

    I hope you’re not getting a wee cynical in your dotage. But let’s call a spade a spade: it doesn’t take up to three years to hold a referendum. You’re right, this is set up to fail.

  19. And here I am this afternoon making Moqueca(Brazilian Fish Stew) for dinner, using locally bought fresh Leather Jacket fish. 🙂

  20. Democracy Busters R Us

    Omerta Section

    Chapter: Whistleblower suppression – McBride in court.

    The ones who are NOT in court? Those subject to allegations of war crimes and those who are alleged to have covered up the war crimes. Investigation of the allegations of multiple allegations of war crime, including the cold-blooded murder of an unarmed prisoner, has been conducted totally behind closed doors. The investigation is now into its third year. The investigation is being undertaken by the Agency whose members are alleged to have committed multiple war crimes. This Agency which has severe reputational damage to consider if charges are laid. The Omerta Investigation has been accompanied by multiple death threats and threats to sue for defamation.

  21. 1934pc
    “Jewellery chain Michael Hill says that it underpaid its staff by as much as $25 million over the last six years,
    I bet it goes bankrupt before it pays it’s workers!.”

    And/or it can ‘phoenix’ itself into a new company, and leave behind its commitments to its former workers.

  22. Great graphic of trends in MSM consumption in both hard copy and digital..

    Wow, would love to see online only media outlets added to that. ABC. The Guardian. Yahoo. News.com.au, Nine.

  23. Dan Gulberry says:
    Thursday, July 11, 2019 at 3:08 pm
    Sir Henry Parkes @ #1116 Thursday, July 11th, 2019 – 1:04 pm

    Don’t say ridiculous things such as Labor’s policy on climate change is the same as the Coalition’s

    I never stated any such thing.
    _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
    No you didn’t. But some posters here have, as did Greens MP Adam Bandt, more or less, before the federal election, when he told a QandA audience of young people that only the Greens had a serious policy on climate change. No harm in him touting his party’s policy of course, but he seemed to imply the big parties’ policies were same-same.

  24. Simon² Katich® @ #1139 Thursday, July 11th, 2019 – 4:03 pm

    Great graphic of trends in MSM consumption in both hard copy and digital..

    Wow, would love to see online only media outlets added to that. ABC. The Guardian. Yahoo. News.com.au, Nine.

    I some ways it’s like watching the numbers click over at the petrol bowser. But, it’s totally mesmerising watching the colours ebb and flow.

  25. Why isn’t the LNP supporting indigenous recognition in the constitution?

    Got to have an emotive point of difference to whip up interest to hide their lack of government and steady erosion of our civil liberties

    Feed the punters bread and circuses while Rome burns

  26. Democracy Busters R Us

    Farmers Uber Alles Section

    Chapter: Crown of Thorns explosion linked to excess nitrogen run off smashing the southern section of the Great Barrier Reef. Ministers McCormack and Ley are in full Omerta mode.

  27. “Democracy Busters R Us

    Farmers Uber Alles Section

    Chapter: Crown of Thorns explosion linked to excess nitrogen run off smashing the southern section of the Great Barrier Reef. Ministers McCormack and Ley are in full Omerta mode.”

    I told you last year Boer that climate change was secondary (although important and a compounding factor) to land clearing and land usage on the eastern side of the GDR re: the GBR extinction event now taking place.

  28. Business Mates who got half a billion to ‘save’ the Reef nowhere to be found.

    They are at a function. Or a lunch. Or a meeting. Or a conference. Or a team building exercise. Some might call it collaborating with private industry to find and leverage synergies. Bringing institutions and people together. They are harnessing science and championing new ideas. They seek out knowledge gaps. They are the catalyst for solving the most complex and challenging of problems.

    Surely you now have a better picture of exactly it is that they are doing.

  29. Simon² Katich® @ #1147 Thursday, July 11th, 2019 – 4:24 pm

    Business Mates who got half a billion to ‘save’ the Reef nowhere to be found.

    They are at a function. Or a lunch. Or a meeting. Or a conference. Or a team building exercise. Some might call it collaborating with private industry to find and leverage synergies. Bringing institutions and people together. They are harnessing science and championing new ideas. They seek out knowledge gaps. They are the catalyst for solving the most complex and challenging of problems.

    Surely you now have a better picture of exactly it is that they are doing.

    Sounds like a very Malcolm Turnbull kind of thang. 🙂

  30. A-E
    You did. The thing that is killing the GBR and will kill it stone (sic) dead is global warming. All the other perturbances are mere ebbing ripples along the increasingly short road to a dead pond.

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