Another two bite the dust

Party deregistrations, issues polling, and locally relevant discussion of the performance of online pollsters in the US.

Some unrelated electoral news nuggets to keep things ticking over:

• The Australian Electoral Commission has announced the deregistration of two right-wing minor parties, the more newsworthy of which was Cory Bernardi’s decision to decommission Australian Conservatives. This party owed its party registration to Bernardi’s position in the Senate, rather than its having 500 members, so the matter was entirely in his hands. In a sense, this also means an end to Family First, which won Senate seats at the 2004, 2013 and 2016 elections and had a presence in the South Australian upper house from 2002 to 2017, when it merged with Bernardi’s newly formed outfit. However, Family First appeared to lose energy as evangelical Christians increasingly preferred to direct their organisational efforts towards the Liberal Party, and was dominated in its later years by deep-pocketed former Senator Bob Day. Even further afield, the Rise Up Australia party, associated with controversial pastor Danny Nalliah of Catch the Fire Ministries, has voluntarily deregistered.

• JWS Research has released the latest results in its occasional series on issue salience, recording only one particularly noteworthy movement over the past three surveys: defence, security and terrorism, which only 20% now rate in the top five issues most warranting the attention of the federal government, down from 23% in February and 29% in November. “Performance index” measures for the government across the various issue areas have recorded little change post-election, except that “vision, leadership and quality of government” is up from 35% to 42% (which is still the fifth lowest out of 20 designated issue areas). The survey was conducted from June 26-30 from a sample of 1000.

• In the New York Times’ Upshot blog, Nate Cohn casts a skeptical eye over the record of online polling in the United States. It notes a Pew Research finding that YouGov’s “synthetic sampling” method achieves the best results out of the online pollsters, by which it “selects individuals from its panel of respondents, one by one, to match the demographic profile of individual Americans”. Another survey that performed relatively well, VoteCast, did so by concurrently conducting a huge sample phone poll, results of which were used to calibrate the online component.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,381 comments on “Another two bite the dust”

  1. A good summary of Barnaby’s skills.

    Make completely bathsht crazy claims, getting everyone’s attention while continuing to sign off on documents that fleece the taxpayer of millions in entirely dubious ‘schemes’ & maybe no one will ask you any questions, while they’re losing their sht over what you just said.

    SBS News
    ‏Former Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce says warmer weather is better than dying in an ice age.

  2. poroti
    “Does it persuade them Labor believes and stands by what it says it believes ?”

    Most of ‘them’ really don’t care. The majority of the electorate are disengaged and low-information voters. They are swayed (and misled) by simple messaging. I wish it were otherwise, but we have to deal with reality.

  3. C@tmomma:

    [‘In the court of public opinion Labor will be seen to be doing the right thing.’]

    I think you’re right, few outside the CFMMEU having much time for Setka, even if Albo acted prematurely.

  4. Guytaur is correct in this instance, and it’s not complicated – Labor needs to focus on the real enemy, the LNP and work out what it stands for.

    Ever second wasted attacking the Greens, is a wasted second that could more profitably spent attacling the LNP.

    The incessant whinging and whining about the Greens from the usual suspects, merely masks the real task ahead for Labor.

  5. @Adrian

    Labor attacks Liberals every day.

    “Ever second wasted attacking the Greens, is a wasted second that could more profitably spent attacling the LNP.”

    1. You want to say this so you and the greens escape any criticism of their members or their party and focus on the lib and lab being “same-same”.

    2. You greens don’t like being criticism and you think Labor is focusing on the greens when in reality they are not.

    3. It is infact Greens criticise Labor, and often at times where more important issues are apparent.

    So at the end Greens will continue to say Labor and Liberal be same same, regardless of how Labor “Changes” to the point that agrees with the views of the Greens.

  6. Kakaru

    Most of ‘them’ really don’t care. The majority of the electorate are disengaged and low-information voters.

    Oh I agree. Which is why ‘waving through’ is not so good. People will at best see the headlines and not bother with details as to why Labor ‘rolled over’, no matter how good they were. The take out for them, if any, won’t be YAY Labor .

  7. zoidlord @ #1056 Thursday, July 11th, 2019 – 12:52 pm

    @Adrian

    Labor attacks Liberals every day.

    “Ever second wasted attacking the Greens, is a wasted second that could more profitably spent attacling the LNP.”

    1. You want to say this so you and the greens escape any criticism of their members or their party and focus on the lib and lab being “same-same”.

    2. You greens don’t like being criticism and you think Labor is focusing on the greens when in reality they are not.

    3. It is infact Greens criticise Labor, and often at times where more important issues are apparent.

    So at the end Greens will continue to say Labor and Liberal be same same, regardless of how Labor “Changes” to the point that agrees with the views of the Greens.

    Zoidlord, FYI, I am an ALP member, and have no affection for the current Greens, particularly with its current leader.
    But even an intellectual lightweight can work out that the focus on the bloody Greens is entirely counterproductive.

    But if it makes you and others feel better, and lets you buy into the delusion that you are actually achieving something – go right ahead.

  8. The ‘tragics’ and ‘rusted ons’ will always be able to come up with 101 reasons why this or that ‘roll over’ was the right thing to do but how does it look to the not so interested ? Does it give them a reason to vote for Labor ?

    After a disheartening loss it is like the killing season – everyone is putting the boot into the ALP. It is part of the reason newly minted opposition leaders dont last long. The ALP would have been smashed now and into the next election campaign for being a high tax party who voted against tax cuts for middle and low income workers. Unlike the ‘death tax’ scare campaign, this would have had some basis in truth. It would have stung and resonated. Motormouth would be repeating it over and over.

    I dont get the sustained angst about this. It is only the tragics who really understand what a progressive tax system is and why it matters. Not the general public. What they will see are cuts to services for themselves, or their grandma or their grandkids … And they will blame the LNP for those cuts, not the ALP for voting for a tax structure (way into the future) to become less progressive – esp when voting against it wouldnt have changed the outcome.

  9. New Zealand cheated to beat India. Their iconic run out of Dhoni should have been a no ball and free hit as they had five fielders outside the circle.

  10. BB

    You really dislike being called out, don’t you.

    So here goes again. You know nothing about child abuse and sexual assault except from the angry old white man perspective. Sorry if this upsets your guru status as a knower of all things, which you have carefully established on various blogs for 10 or 12 years.

    Go your best, matey.

  11. poroti
    “The take out for them, if any, won’t be YAY Labor .”

    When you write “if any”, you’re right. Most voters don’t give a dingo’s kidney.

    SimonKatich is absolutely correct. The finer points of the tax system are an abstract concept to most voters. But job losses and cuts to services will bite.

    The ALP opposing the tax cuts would be fertile ground for a future Lib scare campaign. Don’t underestimate ScoMo. He’s a con artist. Like all good con artists, ScoMo knows his audience.

  12. poroti,
    Hundreds and hundreds of thousands of calls to the ATO says people are happy that Labor ‘rolled over’. You seem to be the only one pushing the rollover log.

  13. C@t

    Who told you I have a Psychology degree. One of your ALP insider mates?

    I am like everyone here ……. I use a pseudonym that I made up. I doubt that you are actually a cat.

    What other gems of misinformation do you have up your sleeve for today, or are the 2 you have already posted enough for one day.

  14. I think our, Labor’s, decision to support the third tranche of the tax cuts was a mistake. It is bad for the nation, and therefore it is bad politics. We in Labor need to campaign on policies which are good for Australia. Just keeping our eye on the main chance has caused us to bleed members and support both right and left over the years. It also causes the voting public to distrust us.

    Voting against the Bill might not have made a difference in terms of the simple Parliamentary vote. I would like to know what difference it has made to the hearts and minds of all the people who have recently joined us in the wake of the election disaster. Can we look forward to them renewing their memberships in a year? Maybe … but when I with a head full of grey hair am one of the youngest in my local branch, I really wonder if we can survive as a movement much longer.

  15. Mavis Davis @ #1054 Thursday, July 11th, 2019 – 10:41 am

    C@tmomma:

    [‘In the court of public opinion Labor will be seen to be doing the right thing.’]

    I think you’re right, few outside the CFMMEU having much time for Setka, even if Albo acted prematurely.

    The problem being that both Setka and Albo have given the Libs and their propaganda arms ammunition to attack unions in general and by default Labor as well.

  16. Diogenes says:
    Thursday, July 11, 2019 at 1:25 pm

    …”New Zealand cheated to beat India. Their iconic run out of Dhoni should have been a no ball and free hit as they had five fielders outside the circle”…

    Remarkable that you picked this up, yet it was not mentioned in any of the 3 news articles of read on the subject.
    I’m certain international cricket umpires get more money than a suburban GP.
    Maybe you should think about a change of career?

    GOOOOOOO SHEEP FUCKERS!!!

  17. Joanne Murphy,
    There are a hell of a lot of young, young adult, middle aged, and elderly people in my branch. A lot of the young people have joined since the election. They haven’t said a thing about the vote for the tax cuts because they understand that the Coalition, remember them, they were the ones that decided to play hardball with it, were playing politics and Labor, in order to get what Labor wanted, had to vote for what they also didn’t think was fair.

    Maybe you should try explaining that to your branch members?

  18. The problem being that both Setka and Albo have given the Libs and their propaganda arms ammunition to attack unions in general and by default Labor as well.

    Doubt they’ll use it. They’ll run on “high taxing Labor government” instead.

  19. C@tmomma @ #1065 Thursday, July 11th, 2019 – 11:32 am

    poroti,
    Hundreds and hundreds of thousands of calls to the ATO says people are happy that Labor ‘rolled over’. You seem to be the only one pushing the rollover log.

    Poroti’s point was that, no matter how justified Labor was in voting for the REBATES (not cuts), Labor is not going to get any credit for it. The Libs will get all the kudos and perhaps, grudgingly, the cross benchers who gave the Libs the numbers to get it through.

    No-one is gong to thank Labor for voting for something they couldn’t stop anyway. Certainly not the Libs propaganda arms (Newscorp, 7West, Nine, ABC, etc.) which is all that these voters will get to hear/see.

    The positive to be taken from the above is that the Libs will also cop all the anger when these same voters become aware that they’re not going to get anywhere near the $1080 they were expecting.

  20. Dan Gulberry @ #1070 Thursday, July 11th, 2019 – 1:45 pm

    Mavis Davis @ #1054 Thursday, July 11th, 2019 – 10:41 am

    C@tmomma:

    [‘In the court of public opinion Labor will be seen to be doing the right thing.’]

    I think you’re right, few outside the CFMMEU having much time for Setka, even if Albo acted prematurely.

    The problem being that both Setka and Albo have given the Libs and their propaganda arms ammunition to attack unions in general and by default Labor as well.

    And the solution being what Albanese did, because as sure as night follows day, as the Setka matter was always going to happen in court and he would not get off as he pleaded guilty, the Coalition and the media would have had all the fun of the fair beating Labor over the head with Setka and getting near unanimous support in the parliament for their ‘Ensuring Integrity Bill’. Except for Labor who would have had to keep standing by him because they hadn’t done anything about him. Which would likely have split the ALP, between those who were disgusted that nothing was done and those that stood by him.

    Bugger that he leads a union. Those people can be domestic violence perpetrators too. And he is. And should be dealt with accordingly.

  21. a r @ #1074 Thursday, July 11th, 2019 – 1:50 pm

    The problem being that both Setka and Albo have given the Libs and their propaganda arms ammunition to attack unions in general and by default Labor as well.

    Doubt they’ll use it. They’ll run on “high taxing Labor government” instead.

    Albo doing a Rudd and summarily dismissing ALP Union people will end with Albo out of a job.

    Setka is cashed up via his Union and could take this all the way to the High Court.

    It’ll end up being like that McCormack Foundation suit by Kroger which wasted some much time, effort and money.

  22. Jewellery chain Michael Hill says that it underpaid its staff by as much as $25 million over the last six years,
    I bet it goes bankrupt before it pays it’s workers!.

  23. C@tmomma – what I will be explaining to my branch comrades is why I think it was the wrong decision for us to make. My comrades will tell me whether they agree or argue with me as to why they disagree. Maybe you should not presume to tell me what to do at my own branch’s meetings.

  24. Five are allowed – I think the suggestion is that 6 were o/s the circle but no definitive picture is shown.

    Dont need a picture. Kiwis are cheats. Look at the biggest of them all – that Richie McCaw chap. Not to mention the likes of Barnaby and Joh.

  25. C@tmomma says:
    Thursday, July 11, 2019 at 12:11 pm
    Rex Douglas @ #1033 Thursday, July 11th, 2019 – 12:00 pm

    C@tmomma @ #1026 Thursday, July 11th, 2019 – 11:52 am

    Rex Douglas,
    You just don’t get it. Abstaining from the tax cuts vote would have, in the eyes of the public, because the Coalition and the media would have pushed the impression hard, been akin to voting against them. It’s an easy half-truth to peddle, ‘Labor didn’t want you to have tax cuts’.

    At the end of the day it’s the sort of simplistic crapola that resonates with the 90% of the electorate who don’t buy The Greens’ brand of simplistic crapola such as you are tediously bringing up day after day here.

    I get that Lib lite have no clue in selling a message and that they’re craven in fighting a Govt/MSM negative campaign.

    You have just proven beyond any shadow of a doubt that it is pointless trying to reason with you. You just want to peddle simplistic oppositional Greens crapola and that’s it. Enjoy the next 27 years of impotent isolation, Rex Douglas. By that time the environment will be well and truly dead and the rich will be as rich as Croesus and we will all be back to the future with slavery. And you and the rest of The Greens apologists will still be consoling yourselves in your splendid isolation that you are right and everyone else is wrong.
    _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
    Got it in one C@t. The point of some people on the political fringes, such as some, not all, of the Greens and the far Labor left, is to push politics to feel good about themselves, rather than improve society or the world.
    It was that way with people who enabled George Bush II to become US president by voting for third party candidate Ralph Nader in 2000. Despite the Bush administration turning out to be the worst American presidency (until now, obviously) some Nader supporters still defended voting for him.
    “We had to make a stand,” was one such defence. Even to the point of endangering the very policies Nader was advocating, apparently.
    You see, it’s not about actual results. It’s all about being seen to be better than everyone else.

  26. Joanne Murphy @ #1080 Thursday, July 11th, 2019 – 2:13 pm

    C@tmomma – what I will be explaining to my branch comrades is why I think it was the wrong decision for us to make. My comrades will tell me whether they agree or argue with me as to why they disagree. Maybe you should not presume to tell me what to do at my own branch’s meetings.

    Wow, touchy! I was only trying to help. I won’t make that mistake again!

  27. shellbell
    He was too slow batting and running.
    In other sports news, Gallop has finally quit as CEO of the FFA. He will be looking for another sport to wreck now.

  28. adrian says:
    Thursday, July 11, 2019 at 12:45 pm
    Guytaur is correct in this instance, and it’s not complicated – Labor needs to focus on the real enemy, the LNP and work out what it stands for.

    Ever second wasted attacking the Greens, is a wasted second that could more profitably spent attacling the LNP.

    The incessant whinging and whining about the Greens from the usual suspects, merely masks the real task ahead for Labor.
    _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
    I agree with you adrian. Equally, the Greens and their supporters could stop incessantly attacking Labor at every opportunity and concentrate on the real enemy: the Coalition.
    The tax cuts, at least stages 1 and 2, love ’em or not, are done and dusted. Let’s look to the next battle.
    Let’s worry about a possible recession looming, the government’s crackdown on the media, subtle talk about pushing for nuclear power, the continuing inaction on climate change and the already emerging attempts to scuttle meaningful reconciliation with our first nations.
    There will always be some differences between Labor and the Greens, but it is important to keep them in perspective. A perspective I see lacking on this site in spades.

  29. Joanne M
    “I think our, Labor’s, decision to support the third tranche of the tax cuts was a mistake”

    Unfortunately, the three tranches were bundled into one bill. If Labor opposed the third tranche, and thus opposed the bill, the Libs would claim that Labor opposed tax cuts, etc. Labor would explain their position; but because their explanation would be nuanced (and therefore require at least three sentences), the Libs could respond very effectively with a short and simple attack slogan. This is the reality of politics.

  30. Sir Henry P.
    “I agree with you adrian. Equally, the Greens and their supporters could stop incessantly attacking Labor at every opportunity and concentrate on the real enemy: the Coalition.”

    Wow, wouldn’t that be nice. You Greens should give that a go – if only for the novelty value.

  31. Pommy Bastards vs Sandpaper Ball Tamperers tonight.

    Winner to take on the SheepShaggers, who have never won a World Cup before.

    It does make this summer’s A vs NZ Tests more interesting, and hopefully competitive

  32. Kakuru @ #1094 Thursday, July 11th, 2019 – 2:31 pm

    Sir Henry P.
    “I agree with you adrian. Equally, the Greens and their supporters could stop incessantly attacking Labor at every opportunity and concentrate on the real enemy: the Coalition.”

    Wow, wouldn’t that be nice. You Greens should give that a go – if only for the novelty value.

    Don’t hold your breath.

  33. My old man never forgave Colin Meads for his attack of Ken Catchpole and what about Frank Bunce on Michael Brial (although Brial was not that good so it matter less).

    Dont forget Carozza and that disgrace of a player Richard Loe.

  34. “Guytaur is correct in this instance, and it’s not complicated – Labor needs to focus on the real enemy, the LNP and work out what it stands for.”

    Absolutely.

    Same goes for Greens attacking Labor.

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