Another two bite the dust

Party deregistrations, issues polling, and locally relevant discussion of the performance of online pollsters in the US.

Some unrelated electoral news nuggets to keep things ticking over:

• The Australian Electoral Commission has announced the deregistration of two right-wing minor parties, the more newsworthy of which was Cory Bernardi’s decision to decommission Australian Conservatives. This party owed its party registration to Bernardi’s position in the Senate, rather than its having 500 members, so the matter was entirely in his hands. In a sense, this also means an end to Family First, which won Senate seats at the 2004, 2013 and 2016 elections and had a presence in the South Australian upper house from 2002 to 2017, when it merged with Bernardi’s newly formed outfit. However, Family First appeared to lose energy as evangelical Christians increasingly preferred to direct their organisational efforts towards the Liberal Party, and was dominated in its later years by deep-pocketed former Senator Bob Day. Even further afield, the Rise Up Australia party, associated with controversial pastor Danny Nalliah of Catch the Fire Ministries, has voluntarily deregistered.

• JWS Research has released the latest results in its occasional series on issue salience, recording only one particularly noteworthy movement over the past three surveys: defence, security and terrorism, which only 20% now rate in the top five issues most warranting the attention of the federal government, down from 23% in February and 29% in November. “Performance index” measures for the government across the various issue areas have recorded little change post-election, except that “vision, leadership and quality of government” is up from 35% to 42% (which is still the fifth lowest out of 20 designated issue areas). The survey was conducted from June 26-30 from a sample of 1000.

• In the New York Times’ Upshot blog, Nate Cohn casts a skeptical eye over the record of online polling in the United States. It notes a Pew Research finding that YouGov’s “synthetic sampling” method achieves the best results out of the online pollsters, by which it “selects individuals from its panel of respondents, one by one, to match the demographic profile of individual Americans”. Another survey that performed relatively well, VoteCast, did so by concurrently conducting a huge sample phone poll, results of which were used to calibrate the online component.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,381 comments on “Another two bite the dust”

  1. guytaur says:
    Thursday, July 11, 2019 at 11:19 am

    Fredrik

    The Labor campaign of blaming everyone else but themselves is in full swing as the denial factor has not gone away yet.

    If people like you didn’t post day after day anti Labor crap that is in perfect anti balance with the nonsense out of the Liberals, perhaps, but it not the case is it?

  2. A couple of issues here:

    1. I assume that the point is to try to create an infinity of triggers for the fervently desired US-Iran War.

    2. I am not aware of any Australian flagged vessels that transit the Strait of Hormuz or the Bab al-Mandab. So we won’t be asked to contribute military assets, right? And nor should we. We should position ourselves to keep out of the US-Iran-Israel-Saudi Arabia-Iraq-Syria-Yemen conflagration. I assume that Morrison will pray with Payne and Reynolds and come to a landing on Australia’s position here. I am not optimistic.

    3. The Bab al-Mandab operation will serve two purposes. One of these is to reinforce the blockade of the Houthis. Figures are hard to obtain but, say, around a million noncombatants are enduring famine conditions as a direct consequence of this blockade.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jul/10/us-plans-coalition-of-military-allies-to-patrol-waters-off-iran-and-yemen-gulf

  3. How many times can briefly ignore the fact that labor vote with the LNP more often than the Greens? How many times do the Greens need to state that they would never support a minority LNP government, but would support an ALP minority government for briefly to realise they are making an monotonous idiot of him/herself?

    the unfounded/unsubstantiated ravings that the Greens support the LNP are not just delusional, they are fucking annoying/boring. The Greens attack the libs more than they attack labor, but you are so delusional that you cannot see this.

    If you are so partisan that you think Labor should be above criticism from the left then you do not understand how democracy works.

    Get help. But, more importantly find a new hobby horse – you are making a complete goose of yourself in you delusion.

  4. Mr Keating didn’t hold back when asked for his thoughts on Australia’s coal exports.
    “Look, coal is the fuel of the industrial revolution 250 years ago. It’s all over,” he said.
    “There’s the Prime Minister walking around with a lump of coal. Coal is a fossil. The Prime Minister is a fossil himself, a fossil with a baseball cap, but a fossil.”

    https://www.news.com.au/national/federal-election/scott-morrison-targets-online-trolls-beefing-up-prison-terms-and-making-social-media-accountable/live-coverage/15d393c4eb078046588f42380047dc80

  5. Psyclaw,
    As Bushfire Bill has said, you have styled yourself as some kind of blog hall monitor. Get over yourself.

    I have explained myself to Mr Bowe as fully as possible when he has questioned my behaviour, and I’m still here. So he must have accepted my explanation.

    I may still be here somewhat tenuously but I have taken on board what Mr Bowe has said and adjusted accordingly. One thing I will guarantee that I will never do though, is take dictation from you. Someone who thinks because they have a Psychology degree that that gives them the right to throw their weight around here. It doesn’t.

  6. guytaur @ #989 Thursday, July 11th, 2019 – 11:19 am

    Fredrik

    The Labor campaign of blaming everyone else but themselves is in full swing as the denial factor has not gone away yet.

    Lib lite have conned their environmentally engaged supporters for years proclaiming loudly how serious they are about environmental matters.

    If one looks around the evidence of their actions clearly shows otherwise.

    It’s up to those voters who genuinely want a better environment and society for their children and grandchildren to change their voting habits away from the destructive LibNats and Lib lite.

  7. frednk
    Guytaur has been for the past week trailing his Greens provocations. Aka he has been trolling. My constructive suggestion for dealing with Guytaur is to leave his vital insights hanging in the air and swinging in the wind.

  8. Labor has been its own worst enemy re the passing of the tax cut legislation.

    It should have been obvious to all that the government legislation would pass in full given the makeup of the senate. Labor should have had all its ducks in a row and, instead, of running around in the lead up to the return to Canberra humming and crying in the MSM as to how terrible trance 3 of the cuts was should have simply answered each and every time wtte “ our position will be made clear when the legislation is presented to Parliament “.

    However, for what ever reasons Albanese and others were out and about throwing huge doubts on the last stage cuts and leaving open the option, at least in the view of the MSM, of opposing them and perhaps the whole package. There was no need to feed the media with uncertainty and make labor the issue. Simply take a low profile and bat away any and all media questioning and play your hand in the final game ie the senate.

    I believe labor took the right position in supporting the full package given the state of play but it was a very torturous process that clearly left labor open to attack from all sides. Labor may have supported the cuts but the optics of being dragged screaming and shouting to that vote remains and open to government attack especially as, for whatever reason, labor has refused to rule out reversing stage three.

    Blame the government all you like but labor, by its own hand, has opened the door to government attack re the tax package.

  9. guytaur says:
    Thursday, July 11, 2019 at 11:19 am

    Fredrik

    The Labor campaign of blaming everyone else but themselves is in full swing as the denial factor has not gone away yet.

    Really?

    Have they concluded their review of the campaign?

    Do you have a link?

  10. With Ley as Environment Minister, McCormack in charge of MDB water, and Barilaro as Deputy Premier, the NSW environment is in excellent hands.

  11. BW

    I am on the same page as Possum and Greg Jericho.

    Deny reality all you like. You usually do to label someone Green to discredit an argument in Labor partisan eyes.

  12. Doyley

    I disagree. The whole reason to vote against Tier 3 was a principled position Labor made before the vote. I agree with that. Voting for the stage 3 has rightly got opprobrium because it crossed a line. That of ending progressive taxation.

    Thus people like Greg Jericho could tweet What’s the Point of Labor?

  13. doyley @ #1007 Thursday, July 11th, 2019 – 11:30 am

    Labor has been its own worst enemy re the passing of the tax cut legislation.

    It should have been obvious to all that the government legislation would pass in full given the makeup of the senate. Labor should have had all its ducks in a row and, instead, of running around in the lead up to the return to Canberra humming and crying in the MSM as to how terrible trance 3 of the cuts was should have simply answered each and every time wtte “ our position will be made clear when the legislation is presented to Parliament “.

    However, for what ever reasons Albanese and others were out and about throwing huge doubts on the last stage cuts and leaving open the option, at least in the view of the MSM, of opposing them and perhaps the whole package. There was no need to feed the media with uncertainty and make labor the issue. Simply take a low profile and bat away any and all media questioning and play your hand in the final game ie the senate.

    I believe labor took the right position in supporting the full package given the state of play but it was a very torturous process that clearly left labor open to attack from all sides. Labor may have supported the cuts but the optics of being dragged screaming and shouting to that vote remains and open to government attack especially as, for whatever reason, labor has refused to rule out reversing stage three.

    Blame the government all you like but labor, by its own hand, has opened the door to government attack re the tax package.

    Once Lambie declared her hand Labor should have had nothing to do with the votes and abstained.

    Simple messaging should then have flowed stating any adverse economic consequences is purely on the shonky salesman PM.

    Unfortunately it’s now Lib lite policy to campaign for more tax cuts which has inevitable consequences for social services.

  14. When is the 3rd stage of the tax cuts meant to start?

    It’s not an immediate issue now it has been passed and can be addressed over time.

    Huffing and puffing over it now is wasted energy.

  15. A word of advice to Joel Fitzgibbon. Look at One Nation’s platform away from the racism. It looks very progressive. Yes its a con to cover the right wing stuff. However voters seem to be buying it. Things like a people’s bank.

    Going right has never helped Labor win. It just makes you Liberal Lite.
    Proving people like Rex Douglas here right.

  16. It strikes me that those with a psychology degree, or have furthered their studies to qualify as a psychologist, should, of all people, be the least combative – reference thereof is made to Luke 4:23.

  17. I wonder how many Indigenous people voted for the LNP. Senator Patrick Dodson is the shadow Assistant Minister for Reconciliation and Constitutional Recognition of Indigenous Australians.

    Patrick Dodson
    Recently many people said national support for a referendum was there and that Labor should just get on with it. The recent election result tells me other things mattered more to voters than First Nations interest. Labor had a clear policy position of support for the Uluru Statement and for a referendum in the first term. The Coalition had no plan.

    In the aftermath of the election, Attorney-General Christian Porter dampened hopes by deploying a crude, fear-mongering Brexit analogy that did a disservice to the reconciliation movement.

    Since then, the Coalition has awakened to the significance of what First Nations called for in the Uluru Statement but have yet to show the courage to truly adopt it.

    The new Minister for Indigenous Australians, Ken Wyatt, has provided some hope in his National Press Club remarks on Wednesday. But yet again, he has provided no assurances that his government will stay true to all three reform items in the Uluru Statement from the Heart – Voice, Treaty and Truth.

    He palmed off the responsibility of treaty to the states and territories even though the Uluru Statement was delivered to the Australian people. And the federal government, in a federation, has a principle role and responsibility to resolve settlement and displacement issues with First Nations. It has to display the courage to pursue this with state, territories, the Australian people and First Nations.

    The time has come to say enough is enough.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/treaty-when-dodson-warns-of-betrayal-and-airbrushing-of-indigenous-ambition-20190711-p52656.html

  18. It beggars believe that at this current juncture in the demise of the Murray Darling that some pin head country bumkin National would want to log what’s left.

  19. guytaur @ #1020 Thursday, July 11th, 2019 – 11:44 am

    A word of advice to Joel Fitzgibbon. Look at One Nation’s platform away from the racism. It looks very progressive. Yes its a con to cover the right wing stuff. However voters seem to be buying it. Things like a people’s bank.

    Going right has never helped Labor win. It just makes you Liberal Lite.
    Proving people like Rex Douglas here right.

    Joel Fitzgibbon is using coal to prop up his own self interests in my opinion.

    People should contemplate his motives then re-assess their voting pattern.

  20. Rex Douglas,
    You just don’t get it. Abstaining from the tax cuts vote would have, in the eyes of the public, because the Coalition and the media would have pushed the impression hard, been akin to voting against them. It’s an easy half-truth to peddle, ‘Labor didn’t want you to have tax cuts’.

    At the end of the day it’s the sort of simplistic crapola that resonates with the 90% of the electorate who don’t buy The Greens’ brand of simplistic crapola such as you are tediously bringing up day after day here.

  21. For Labor nationally

    You have rightly made the decision that Climate Heating is real. Listen to Paul Keating. Stop pretending Coal has a future. Start telling workers what your transition plan is so when the LNP attacks you for cutting coal jobs you have an answer.

    Voters know you cannot be for coal jobs and for stopping the runaway train of Climate Heating.

    Edit: Also please Labor start referring to Morrison as the Chief Fossil or like Label Mr Keating pointed you to.

  22. From RexD’s link

    the #Greens are the real opposition

    I think RDN is missing something important about politics. Or he is being very honest about his aims.

  23. Frydenberg is not hardening his heart .He is being SOP Coalition, fark the county , Straya’s interests and its future, or yours, as getting ‘Surplus’ headlines for his party is waaaay more important.

  24. lizzie @ #1022 Thursday, July 11th, 2019 – 11:46 am

    I wonder how many Indigenous people voted for the LNP. Senator Patrick Dodson is the shadow Assistant Minister for Reconciliation and Constitutional Recognition of Indigenous Australians.

    Patrick Dodson
    Recently many people said national support for a referendum was there and that Labor should just get on with it. The recent election result tells me other things mattered more to voters than First Nations interest. Labor had a clear policy position of support for the Uluru Statement and for a referendum in the first term. The Coalition had no plan.

    In the aftermath of the election, Attorney-General Christian Porter dampened hopes by deploying a crude, fear-mongering Brexit analogy that did a disservice to the reconciliation movement.

    Since then, the Coalition has awakened to the significance of what First Nations called for in the Uluru Statement but have yet to show the courage to truly adopt it.

    The new Minister for Indigenous Australians, Ken Wyatt, has provided some hope in his National Press Club remarks on Wednesday. But yet again, he has provided no assurances that his government will stay true to all three reform items in the Uluru Statement from the Heart – Voice, Treaty and Truth.

    He palmed off the responsibility of treaty to the states and territories even though the Uluru Statement was delivered to the Australian people. And the federal government, in a federation, has a principle role and responsibility to resolve settlement and displacement issues with First Nations. It has to display the courage to pursue this with state, territories, the Australian people and First Nations.

    The time has come to say enough is enough.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/treaty-when-dodson-warns-of-betrayal-and-airbrushing-of-indigenous-ambition-20190711-p52656.html

    Pat Dodson needs to be more active in social media if he wants to engage the public in the debate.

  25. mikehilliard says:

    It beggars believe that at this current juncture in the demise of the Murray Darling that some pin head country bumpkin National would want to log what’s left.

    Think of it as a ‘closing down sale” , you need to get in fast before it is all gone 🙁

    May desertification and salinity come in abundance to Nat. electorates, I need the schadenfreude.

  26. C@tmomma @ #1026 Thursday, July 11th, 2019 – 11:52 am

    Rex Douglas,
    You just don’t get it. Abstaining from the tax cuts vote would have, in the eyes of the public, because the Coalition and the media would have pushed the impression hard, been akin to voting against them. It’s an easy half-truth to peddle, ‘Labor didn’t want you to have tax cuts’.

    At the end of the day it’s the sort of simplistic crapola that resonates with the 90% of the electorate who don’t buy The Greens’ brand of simplistic crapola such as you are tediously bringing up day after day here.

    I get that Lib lite have no clue in selling a message and that they’re craven in fighting a Govt/MSM negative campaign.

  27. Katharine Murphy@murpharoo
    42m42 minutes ago

    We either deliver the Uluru Statement from the Heart in full or continue down the failed path of soft reconciliation – making white folks feel like they are doing something good for blackfellas and yet doing nothing to heal the nation’s wounds

    All Morrison will do is pray for them, or “put a good spin on it”, as his Housing Minister did for homelessness.

  28. C@t’s right. Labor was being pragmatic in supporting the tax cuts wholesale. I felt a bit queasy about it, but it was the least worst of the available choices. We can leave the doe-eyed idealism to the Greens, and as Green feel good about oneselves as a perennial protest party.

  29. From the SMH article

    [Justice Riordan also note that the parties to the case were ‘‘at least considering the possibility’’ that the dispute might end up in the High Court.]

    What is the purpose of saying this to a court?

    Impression is that there is going to be wanton spending by parties who are meant to have some degree of common interest.

  30. Kakaru

    You are wrong as the reaction has shown.
    See the tweet of Greg Jericho I posted. It was lose lose. Thats why you now have the Greens campaigning on being the real opposition.

    Its really that simple.

  31. Rex Douglas @ #1033 Thursday, July 11th, 2019 – 12:00 pm

    C@tmomma @ #1026 Thursday, July 11th, 2019 – 11:52 am

    Rex Douglas,
    You just don’t get it. Abstaining from the tax cuts vote would have, in the eyes of the public, because the Coalition and the media would have pushed the impression hard, been akin to voting against them. It’s an easy half-truth to peddle, ‘Labor didn’t want you to have tax cuts’.

    At the end of the day it’s the sort of simplistic crapola that resonates with the 90% of the electorate who don’t buy The Greens’ brand of simplistic crapola such as you are tediously bringing up day after day here.

    I get that Lib lite have no clue in selling a message and that they’re craven in fighting a Govt/MSM negative campaign.

    You have just proven beyond any shadow of a doubt that it is pointless trying to reason with you. You just want to peddle simplistic oppositional Greens crapola and that’s it. Enjoy the next 27 years of impotent isolation, Rex Douglas. By that time the environment will be well and truly dead and the rich will be as rich as Croesus and we will all be back to the future with slavery. And you and the rest of The Greens apologists will still be consoling yourselves in your splendid isolation that you are right and everyone else is wrong.

  32. Kakuru says:
    T

    C@t’s right. Labor was being pragmatic

    And one persons ‘pragmatic’ is another persons ‘cynical’ or spineless’ . The ‘tragics’ and ‘rusted ons’ will always be able to come up with 101 reasons why this or that ‘roll over’ was the right thing to do but how does it look to the not so interested ? Does it give them a reason to vote for Labor ? Does it persuade them Labor believes and stands by what it says it believes ?

  33. Mavis Davis @ #1035 Thursday, July 11th, 2019 – 12:02 pm

    [‘Labor Leader Anthony Albanese could have to go all the way to the High Court in his fight to expel controversial building union leader John Setka from the party.’]:

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/judge-puts-brakes-on-labor-s-plans-to-kick-john-setka-out-of-the-party-20190711-p5268c.html

    In the court of public opinion Labor will be seen to be doing the right thing. If the CFFMEU win a pyrrhic legal victory then Labor will have been seen to have been doing the right thing.

    Even so, Labor always has the option of changing the rules which govern members.

  34. poroti @ #1044 Thursday, July 11th, 2019 – 12:16 pm

    Kakuru says:
    T

    C@t’s right. Labor was being pragmatic

    And one persons ‘pragmatic’ is another persons ‘cynical’ or spineless’ . The ‘tragics’ and ‘rusted ons’ will always be able to come up with 101 reasons why this or that ‘roll over’ was the right thing to do but how does it look to the not so interested ? Does it give them a reason to vote for Labor ? Does it persuade them Labor believes and stands by what it says it believes ?

    For the, what is it, 93% of taxpayers that will benefit from Stage 1 and 2 of the tax cuts, yes it does.

  35. C@tmomma @ #1039 Thursday, July 11th, 2019 – 12:11 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #1033 Thursday, July 11th, 2019 – 12:00 pm

    C@tmomma @ #1026 Thursday, July 11th, 2019 – 11:52 am

    Rex Douglas,
    You just don’t get it. Abstaining from the tax cuts vote would have, in the eyes of the public, because the Coalition and the media would have pushed the impression hard, been akin to voting against them. It’s an easy half-truth to peddle, ‘Labor didn’t want you to have tax cuts’.

    At the end of the day it’s the sort of simplistic crapola that resonates with the 90% of the electorate who don’t buy The Greens’ brand of simplistic crapola such as you are tediously bringing up day after day here.

    I get that Lib lite have no clue in selling a message and that they’re craven in fighting a Govt/MSM negative campaign.

    You have just proven beyond any shadow of a doubt that it is pointless trying to reason with you. You just want to peddle simplistic oppositional Greens crapola and that’s it. Enjoy the next 27 years of impotent isolation, Rex Douglas. By that time the environment will be well and truly dead and the rich will be as rich as Croesus and we will all be back to the future with slavery. And you and the rest of The Greens apologists will still be consoling yourselves in your splendid isolation that you are right and everyone else is wrong.

    If voters keep voting they way they have then yes ‘the environment will be well and truly dead’.

    In order to improve you must change…

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