Another two bite the dust

Party deregistrations, issues polling, and locally relevant discussion of the performance of online pollsters in the US.

Some unrelated electoral news nuggets to keep things ticking over:

• The Australian Electoral Commission has announced the deregistration of two right-wing minor parties, the more newsworthy of which was Cory Bernardi’s decision to decommission Australian Conservatives. This party owed its party registration to Bernardi’s position in the Senate, rather than its having 500 members, so the matter was entirely in his hands. In a sense, this also means an end to Family First, which won Senate seats at the 2004, 2013 and 2016 elections and had a presence in the South Australian upper house from 2002 to 2017, when it merged with Bernardi’s newly formed outfit. However, Family First appeared to lose energy as evangelical Christians increasingly preferred to direct their organisational efforts towards the Liberal Party, and was dominated in its later years by deep-pocketed former Senator Bob Day. Even further afield, the Rise Up Australia party, associated with controversial pastor Danny Nalliah of Catch the Fire Ministries, has voluntarily deregistered.

• JWS Research has released the latest results in its occasional series on issue salience, recording only one particularly noteworthy movement over the past three surveys: defence, security and terrorism, which only 20% now rate in the top five issues most warranting the attention of the federal government, down from 23% in February and 29% in November. “Performance index” measures for the government across the various issue areas have recorded little change post-election, except that “vision, leadership and quality of government” is up from 35% to 42% (which is still the fifth lowest out of 20 designated issue areas). The survey was conducted from June 26-30 from a sample of 1000.

• In the New York Times’ Upshot blog, Nate Cohn casts a skeptical eye over the record of online polling in the United States. It notes a Pew Research finding that YouGov’s “synthetic sampling” method achieves the best results out of the online pollsters, by which it “selects individuals from its panel of respondents, one by one, to match the demographic profile of individual Americans”. Another survey that performed relatively well, VoteCast, did so by concurrently conducting a huge sample phone poll, results of which were used to calibrate the online component.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,381 comments on “Another two bite the dust”

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  1. Revd Andrew Klein ( Chaplain)

    “PM prays – for veterans, suicidal young people, people suffering from mental health n ho hum ” –
    I spent lots of time with Veterans , young people/ homeless / disabled and I call this a BS puff piece. What next ? Market Trump ?

  2. Barney

    Yes, I had (well, tried to) a conversation with someone who couldn’t see Brexit causing any problems at all, because Britain has been Great for centuries.

  3. @Lee_Tennant
    23h23 hours ago

    The Australian prime minister is a few Sundays away from ordering a mass exorcism on the planet because climate change is a demon or something. Why the fuck did people vote for this?
    I hate you all

  4. Barney in Makassar
    Thursday, July 11th, 2019 – 9:46 am
    Comment #931

    Fascinating KayJay,

    Has your research suggested any source for the “it’s not my fault” defensive reflex?

    My investigations have been curtailed as a result of my kindly and friendly neighbours allowing me the privilege of cleaning up after their dogs. Your question is an important one which needs to be combined with the “they didn’t orter be allowed to say stuff about me n’that” question.

    Together with the time consuming challenge of working out (see Lizzie’s important contribution below) just WTF an IPA research director is and does. See also

    sustainable future
    Thursday, July 11th, 2019 – 10:06 am
    Comment #944

    I’m having a time management problem.

    💢💢💢💢💢💢💢💢💢💢💢💢💢💢💢💢💢💢💢💢💢💢💢

    lizzie @ #902 Thursday, July 11th, 2019 – 8:41 am

    The IPA also has more overt power in Parliament.

    In an influential warning for some Liberals and Nationals, the Institute of Public Affairs warned against the changes on Wednesday.

    “Proposals to insert race into our nation’s founding document are radical, illiberal, and a violation of all principles of racial equality. Race has no place in Australia’s Constitution,” said IPA research director Daniel Wild.

    This is so childish. Why should the original inhabitants not be acknowledged?

    Because – just because ❗

    More than enough from me for today. Over —

    🜜 Alchemical symbol for iron ore. To do with ❓ SFA

  5. Barney

    Saying Labor can be wrong and that Labor’s actions are not the fault of the Greens is not exactly rocket science.

    Like it or not Labor people need to do some self reflection. Blaming the Greens for Labor actions and policies doesn’t help Labor win elections.

    Maybe fight on the issues instead of saying oh no the Greens have a different position. Its their fault Labor are losing.

  6. lizzie says:
    Thursday, July 11, 2019 at 10:19 am

    @Lee_Tennant
    23h23 hours ago

    The Australian prime minister is a few Sundays away from ordering a mass exorcism on the planet because climate change is a demon or something. Why the fuck did people vote for this?
    I hate you all

    Surely Global Warming is a clear indication of the Devil’s infiltration into global Societies¿

  7. guytaur says:
    Thursday, July 11, 2019 at 10:32 am

    Barney

    Just stop blaming the Greens all the time and argue the case on the issue. Labor might just get somewhere

    ????????

    I don’t think I’ve typed the word “Green” or commented about them today.

    At least until now! 😆

  8. You abuse, you snark, you smear…

    You do a bit of that yourself, Psyclaw. You’re one of the biggest wowsers here. Hardly a day goes by without some poor bastard being publicly condemned or pitied by you for being outside the Approved Psyclaw Moral Spectrum and Code Of Conduct.

    Of course they deserve it, so that makes it OK I guess.

  9. Barney

    You talked about my rabbit warren of logic when I was talking about Labor saying the Greens are at fault all the time.

    If you were referring to my comment about Labor not standing up for rights look at the Surveillance article Lizzie posted.

    That impacts on Freedom of Association as now the police can track you everywhere. Labor waved through legislation that lets this stuff happen. I mean in the general sense not the particular case as I don’t know how the Federal Law interacts with State law regarding facial recognition.

    To my mind we need a right to privacy like the EU has to prevent this attack on our freedom of association.

  10. guytaur says:
    Thursday, July 11, 2019 at 10:38 am

    To prove my case …

    You’re writing satire now, I see! 😆

  11. briefly @ #922 Thursday, July 11th, 2019 – 9:32 am

    Sam Maiden reports that Barnaby Joyce says the idea Australia can stop climate change is “barking mad”, and global warming is a better problem than the next ice age. HE’S what’s mad!

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2019/07/10/barnaby-joyce-climate-change/

    National policy is to take no action wrt climate change. The Liberals derive political benefits from this. They will continue to defile the environment of political purposes. The Liberals run the country. We have to get used to this. Dysfunction on the left of centre and the weighting of the economy’s reliance on the fossil fuel sector means we will continue to grow emissions very strongly. This is inevitable. There is absolutely nothing that can be done about this without changing the government. But there will be no change in the government until dysfunction on the Left is resolved. This is very obviously never going to happen.

    Most of us agree that Barnaby Joyce and the LibNat voters are barking mad for imposing terrible social and economics costs of climate change on future generations.

    Even more disturbing is the Albanese led Lib lite support by continuing to prop up the thermal coal industry by backing in more thermal coal mining/export.

    It is ONLY the Greens and a few independents who have a parliamentary voice against the environment destroyers and they should be supported by fair-minded commenters.

  12. Barney

    Yeah pointing out what the Greens are now doing as campaigning that they were not doing before is such satire. Glad you find reality so funny

  13. @GrogsGamut tweets

    But I thought voting for the tax cuts meant there would be no way the govt could say the ALP opposed them.

    Gee. Who could have seen this coming. https://twitter.com/JoshFrydenberg/status/1149111406618243072

    @JoshFrydenberg tweets

    The @ato_gov_au has received over 1 million tax returns for the 18/19 year!
    As of this morning over 1.1 million tax returns have been lodged compared to around 600,000 at the same time last year. Despite Labor’s opposition, Australians have now got the tax cuts they voted for!

  14. An Opposition has to have a reasonable chance of forming government. It’s not called ‘the Opposition’ because it’s meant to oppose the government on every issue, but because they sit opposite the government in Parliament.

    If di Natale is saying he’s got a chance of forming government, he’s wrong.

    If di Natale is pledging to oppose everything the government proposes, he’s bonkers.

    If di Natale is claiming that his party sits on the opposite benches in Parliament, he needs to go to Spec Savers.

    God knows what di Natale means by that statement, and as I don’t believe in God I won’t be finding out soon.

  15. Took a drive home from Newcastle yesterday afternoon, via the coal port at Kooragang Island.

    Rest assured, the cosy assumption that Australia can and will be closing down its coal industry anytime soon is greeny horseshit, environmental Dreamtime stuff.

    You look at the dozens of massive ore carrier ships anchored out to sea, the ones in port at the end of billions of dollars worth of conveyors, unloading trains over a kilometre long, one after another, day after day, the thousands of workers going home in the afternoon on a traffic-jammed expressway, and you realize that, for better or worse, this industry isn’t going anywhere in the near future.

    Whatever the answer is, it isn’t gloati g over Coal’s easy demise.

  16. G’day Bludgers.

    Just surfacing to leave a drive-by grenade for the recti (like compacted cowhead et al.) whose crowing made PB indigestible for thin-skinned lefty snowflakes (like me) over the last few months. How good is winning that election, eh?

    Feast upon the latest Big Ideas – and weep. There is life beyond coal.

    Going dark again.

  17. zoomster @ #971 Thursday, July 11th, 2019 – 8:52 am

    An Opposition has to have a reasonable chance of forming government. It’s not called ‘the Opposition’ because it’s meant to oppose the government on every issue, but because they sit opposite the government in Parliament.

    According to your post the Opposition party should be called the Opposite Party. Opposition means taking an opposite view or stance, it does not mean “sitting opposite”. Or are you referring to the number of times the Labor Party has not opposed any of the policies the Government has put forward.

    Hmm. Perhaps you have a point. Given they offer no opposition at all on a lot of issues, perhaps they should be renamed the Opposite Party instead.

  18. It will be interesting to see how long it takes for the stuff ups, holdups , unanswered calls etc etc from the ATO to take the glow away from the government.

    Significant staff cuts in the ATO do not bode well especially if casual, untrained staff are bought in to handle the inflow of tax returns.

    1.1 million lodgements does not automatically mean 1.1 million refunds are in the bank and those that are may not necessarily be the $1000 plus that was enthusiastically “ promised “ by the government and its MSM propaganda machine.

  19. Democracy Busters R Us

    Smash the APS section

    Chapter: Transfer the MDBA to Griffith
    Chapter: Fire thousands from the ATO
    Chapter: Gut another $1.5 billion from Admin spend


  20. guytaur says:
    Thursday, July 11, 2019 at 10:52 am

    @GrogsGamut tweets

    But I thought voting for the tax cuts meant there would be no way the govt could say the ALP opposed them.

    It is tiresome, but the Liberal/Green campaign machine does not deal in facts. The green part complains Labor supported that tax cuts even though, thanks to the excellent work of the machine Labor is in no position to oppose. The Liberal part complains they opposed even though opposition would amount to nothing.

    How effective is that.

    The Greens of cause don’t care they have never been in a position where they can effectively oppose anything, their sole goal is to help the Liberals destroy Labor. I am impressed with your early and
    aggressive start to the Greens anti Labor campaign. I am sure those at menzies house will appreciate you efforts.

  21. Democracy Busters R Us

    Public Opinion Management Section

    Chapter: Pay Deloittes millions. Receive sage public advice from Richardson.

  22. Frednk

    Labor could try listening to science rather than lobby groups.

    Blaming the Greens for Labor’s position is very poor politics

  23. Democracy Busters R Us

    Privatization Section

    Chapter: Look the other way as the Private Sector Spivs skin consumers in the Telecom space.

  24. @YaThinkN
    2h2 hours ago

    Weird seeing Ken Wyatt lauded for his words about Indigenous Recognition, then looking at some of the horrific stuff coming out of the Aged Care Inquiry, yet, never mentioning he over-saw that serious lack of governance as Minister for Aged Care?

    I’m waiting for Morrison to stand beside Wyatt and support him on Indigenous Recognition. Then we’ll know it will never happen.

  25. Bushfire Bill @ #970 Thursday, July 11th, 2019 – 10:56 am

    Took a drive home from Newcastle yesterday afternoon, via the coal pirt at Kooragang Island.

    Rest assured, the cosy assumption that Australia can and will be closing down its coal industry anytime soon is greeny horseshit, environmental Dreamtime stuff.

    You look at the dozens of massive ore carrier ships anchored out to sea, the ones in port at the end of billions of dollars worth of conveyors, unloading trains over a kilometre long, one after another, day after day, the thousands of workers going home in the afternoon on a traffic-jammed expressway, and you realize that, for better or worse, this industry isn’t going anywhere in the near future.

    Whatever the answer is, it isn’t gloati g over Coal’s easy demise.

    This epitomises the utter resignation of Lib lite on environmental matters.

    It is ONLY the Greens and a few Independents who have societies best environmentally economic and social interests at heart.

  26. Bushfire Bill
    Coal will stay until the alternatives are built, it is that simple.
    The Greens have just used adani to assure a Liberal government is reelected, that is all, that is there goal, just look at the posts from party members who visit this site. The left side of the Green/Liberal campaign machine; goal the destruction of labor.

  27. After 27 of Greens tweets, announcements, posts, verbal attacks three more smashing environmental defeats:
    Kossie is turned into a feral horse paddock.
    The Murray National Park is to be deregistered.
    Carbon emissions in Australia are increasing.

    Any Greens who was 18 when the Party was formed is now 45 years old.
    Any Greens Party supporter who is less than 45 years old can’t remember what it was like when environmentalists scored major real victories.

  28. FredNK

    Labor paid the price for saying it was against Adani in a By election in Victoria. Queensland Coal Workers listened.

  29. ‘Player One says:
    Thursday, July 11, 2019 at 11:15 am

    Rex Douglas @ #984 Thursday, July 11th, 2019 – 11:13 am

    It is ONLY the Greens and a few Independents who have societies best environmentally economic and social interests at heart.

    I honestly don’t know how you can type such nonsense.’

    Easy. Rex is a Liberal troll.

  30. Player One says:
    Thursday, July 11, 2019 at 11:15 am

    Rex Douglas @ #984 Thursday, July 11th, 2019 – 11:13 am

    It is ONLY the Greens and a few Independents who have societies best environmentally economic and social interests at heart.

    I honestly don’t know how you can type such nonsense.

    The Liberal/Green campaign machine does not deal in facts; any nonsense gets a run.

  31. Fredrik

    The Labor campaign of blaming everyone else but themselves is in full swing as the denial factor has not gone away yet.

  32. ‘lizzie says:
    Thursday, July 11, 2019 at 11:12 am

    @YaThinkN
    2h2 hours ago

    Weird seeing Ken Wyatt lauded for his words about Indigenous Recognition, then looking at some of the horrific stuff coming out of the Aged Care Inquiry, yet, never mentioning he over-saw that serious lack of governance as Minister for Aged Care?’

    Democracy Busters R Us

    Denial Section

    Chapter: Wyatt’s Trail of Death and Human Destruction in Aged Care Facilities.


  33. guytaur says:
    Thursday, July 11, 2019 at 11:17 am

    FredNK

    Labor paid the price for saying it was against Adani in a By election in Victoria. Queensland Coal Workers listened.

    Been around that bush 100 times. The Liberal/Green campaign machine has moved on so why go around again.

  34. Dan,

    Opposition is derived from the preposition of place, opposite, and as such, to sit in opposition is sit opposite someone.

    It has been adapted to be used in other ways as you highlight, but in describing the main minority in our Parliament it describes their position in the Chamber opposite the Government.

  35. ‘Bushfire Bill says:
    Thursday, July 11, 2019 at 10:56 am

    Took a drive home from Newcastle yesterday afternoon, via the coal port at Kooragang Island.

    Rest assured, the cosy assumption that Australia can and will be closing down its coal industry anytime soon is greeny horseshit, environmental Dreamtime stuff.

    You look at the dozens of massive ore carrier ships anchored out to sea, the ones in port at the end of billions of dollars worth of conveyors, unloading trains over a kilometre long, one after another, day after day, the thousands of workers going home in the afternoon on a traffic-jammed expressway, and you realize that, for better or worse, this industry isn’t going anywhere in the near future.

    Whatever the answer is, it isn’t gloati g over Coal’s easy demise.’

    Unfortunately, you are right. A rellie did a caravan trip through the Queensland coal fields recently. They could hardly find a spot that was not noise polluted by all the machines. Try getting a motel room in these areas.

  36. Boerwar
    “Any Greens Party supporter who is less than 45 years old can’t remember what it was like when environmentalists scored major real victories.”

    But what about the Anti-Adani Convoy!

    Oh yeah… You meant victories for the environment. Carry on.

  37. Frydenberg hardens his heart.

    Flanked by his assistant minister, Michael Sukkar, and the tax commissioner, Chris Jordan, Frydenberg today announced [$] that more than 810,000 Australians had already filed their 2018–19 tax returns and could be receiving their rebates of up to $1080 by the weekend. But, resisting calls from the Reserve Bank governor, Philip Lowe, he stressed that there would be no further stimulus, citing the “non-negotiable” imperative of reaching a budget surplus this year, and saying that the government would be focused on reducing debt.

    Frydenberg said the previous Coalition government had helped the country avoid recession in 2008: “It’s important to understand that if it wasn’t for the Howard–Costello government’s success in paying down Labor’s debt, Australia wouldn’t have had the flexibility to spend through that economic downturn when it hit in the GFC.”

    Jim Chalmers hit back at a doorstop in Brisbane today: “Josh Frydenberg will find any excuse to do nothing about the economy, which is floundering on his watch. He is kidding himself if he thinks that this economy will fix itself when we have a government which spends all of its time focused on Labor, pointing the finger at the states, doing nothing about the fact that we do have weak wages and slowing growth and weak consumption and weak productivity growth right across the board. Josh Frydenberg is a do-nothing treasurer and he hopes that things will just fix themselves.”

    The other possibility is that Frydenberg thinks things are just fine as they are.

    https://www.themonthly.com.au/today/paddy-manning/2019/09/2019/1562649448/frydenberg-hardens

  38. BB

    When did Paul Keating join the Greens party?

    A reminder for you he said live on national television during ALP conference. Coal is Dead.

  39. lizzie says:
    Thursday, July 11, 2019 at 11:12 am

    @YaThinkN
    2h2 hours ago

    Weird seeing Ken Wyatt lauded for his words about Indigenous Recognition, then looking at some of the horrific stuff coming out of the Aged Care Inquiry, yet, never mentioning he over-saw that serious lack of governance as Minister for Aged Care?

    I’m waiting for Morrison to stand beside Wyatt and support him on Indigenous Recognition. Then we’ll know it will never happen.

    He might even put his arm around his shoulders! 😮

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