The Australian Electoral Commission quietly published the full distributions of lower house preferences earlier this week, shedding light on the election’s remaining known unknown: how close One Nation came to maybe pulling off a miracle in Hunter. Joel Fitzgibbon retained the seat for Labor with a margin of 2.98% over the Nationals, landing him on the wrong end of a 9.48% swing – the third biggest of the election after the central Queensland seats of Capricornia and Dawson, the politics of coal mining being the common thread between all three seats.
The wild card in the deck was that Hunter was also the seat where One Nation polled strongest, in what a dare say was a first for a non-Queensland seat – 21.59%, compared with 23.47% for the Nationals and 35.57% for Labor. That raised the question of how One Nation might have done in the final count if they emerged ahead of the Nationals on preferences. The answer is assuredly not-quite-well-enough, but we’ll never know for sure. As preferences from mostly left-leaning minor candidates were distributed, the gap between Nationals and One Nation barely moved, the Nationals gaining 4.81% to reach 28.28% at the final distribution, and One Nation gaining 4.79% to fall short with 26.38%. One Nation preferences then proceeded to flow to the Nationals with noteworthy force, with the final exclusion sending 19,120 votes (71.03%) to the Nationals and 28.97% to Labor.
Speaking of, the flow of minor party preferences between the Coalition and Labor is the one detail of the election result on which the AEC is still holding out. However, as a sequel to last week’s offering on Senate preferences, I offer the following comparison of flows in Queensland in 2016 and 2019. This is based on Senate ballot paper data, observing the number that placed one major party ahead of the either, or included neither major party in their preference order. In the case of the 2016 election, this is based on a sampling of one ballot paper in 50; the 2019 data is from the full set of results.
It has been widely noted that the Coalition enjoyed a greatly improved flow of One Nation preferences in the lower house, but the Senate results offer the interesting twist that Labor’s share hardly changed – evidently many One Nation voters who numbered neither major party in 2016 jumped off the fence and preferenced the Coalition this time. Also notable is that Labor received an even stronger share of Greens preferences than in 2016. If this was reflected nationally, it’s a phenomenon that has passed unnoticed, since the flow of One Nation and United Australia Party preferences was the larger and more telling story.
Other electorally relevant developments of the past week or so:
• Laura Jayes of Sky News raises the prospect of the Nationals asserting a claim to the Liberal Senate vacancy created by Arthur Sinodinos’s appointment to Washington. The Nationals lost one of their two New South Wales seats when Fiona Nash fell foul of Section 44 in late 2017, resulting in a recount that delivered to the Liberals a seat that would otherwise have been held by the Nationals until 2022. Since that is also when Sinodinos’s term expires, giving the Nationals the seat would restore an order in which the Nationals held two out of the five Coalition seats.
• Fresh from her win over Tony Abbott in Warringah, The Australian reported on Tuesday that Zali Steggall was refusing to deny suggestions she might be persuaded to join the Liberal Party, although she subsequently complained the paper had twisted her words. A report in The Age today notes both “allies and opponents” believe Steggall will struggle to win re-election as an independent with Abbott out of the picture, and gives cause to doubt she would survive a preselection challenge as a Liberal.
• Labor is undergoing a personnel change in the Victorian Legislative Council after the resignation of Philip Dalidakis, who led the party’s ticket for Southern Metropolitan region at both the 2014 and 2018 elections. Preserving the claim of the Right faction Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association, the national executive is set to anoint Enver Erdogan, a workplace lawyer for Maurice Blackburn, former Moreland councillor and member of the Kurdish community. The Australian reports former Melbourne Ports MP Michael Danby has joined the party’s Prahran and Brighton branches in registering displeasure that the national executive is circumventing a rank-and-file plebiscite. Particularly contentious is Erdogan’s record of criticism of Israel, a sore point in a region that encompasses Melbourne’s Jewish stronghold around Caulfield.
Labor should focus their election campaigning on working class base. There was too much emphasis on progressive issues. 6 months from election till the day the ballot was held ALP was talking about abortion rights, female empowerment, indigenous rights, climate change etc. No benefit in 2PP terms. Divisive in certain communities, irrelevant to working class people and their concerns. Those issues better handled when in government.
While Labor voters are mostly working class, the party membership is mostly activist, middle-class progressives. There is that disconnect.
So far I have only seen Victorian Labor manage to fuse these two groups together.
briefly @ #135 Friday, July 5th, 2019 – 11:41 am
..except Liberal and Labor are the ones fighting for over the neo-lib slogan of having ‘lower taxes’
Bushfire Bill @ #146 Friday, July 5th, 2019 – 11:46 am
You would think that our forensically inclined, investigatively skilled media would be on to this in a flash.
Bushfire Bill
“nd also for further details about that international airport the Chinese built in the WA desert so they could land military fighter jets from aircraft carriers when the occupation of Australian iron ore minefields commences in the near future.”
This is the airstrip for the SINO iron mine run by CITIC Pacific (a Chinese Govt Investment Company). It’s for FIFO workers and like all airports in Australia is run by CASA. Also, they were obligated to make it large enough to land passenger jets in case of emergency.
The ultimate irony was that Clive Palmer has the tenements that the SINO iron mine is using and he gets about 300 million per year from CITIC in rent….
@adrian
I have to disagree with Tim Dunlop because even a mild recession is going to convince people that the Coalition aren’t superior managers of the economy as Labor. Plus they are going to feel like they were lied to by Scott Morrison about how the Coalition will ‘Keep the economy strong’. Hence why Labor right is making the economy and jobs a major part of it’s message.
Rex Douglas @ #145 Friday, July 5th, 2019 – 11:45 am
Lol! Have you ever read the Greens policy platform? It is a meandering mess of internally inconsistent wish-lists, all utterly unachievable.
MQ
Agree with that. In no way is my description of the James meant to be disrespectful. The James and the Booths represented the people who voted for them and were well respected. I knew both Bert and Ken and I was related to Charlie Jones. All remained close to their roots. Before selecting number plates was easily done. Ken went out of his way to keep his father’s plates GB 135. He changed his car every 3 years but it was always white and the same model. He did not want the electors to think he was flaunting wealth
Joel also inherited his seat from his father, I don’t know him but his media persona is very different from the James and Booths
Rex Douglas:
[‘…Labors shift to the right to politically distance themselves from the Greens isn’t working.’]
I’m with you on this one. Albo’s apparently not into factionalism but is nevertheless left of centre. He should realign the party accordingly, in doing so, entice a brace or two of Greens back into Labor’s fold.
Player One @ #153 Friday, July 5th, 2019 – 11:56 am
So I guess then you’d prefer the current chase for the title of ‘lower taxes’.
Rex Douglas @ #145 Friday, July 5th, 2019 – 9:45 am
Exactly. If briefly is sincere in his quest to destroy the Greens, the only way to do that is to steal their policies. Trying to match the Liberals won’t necessarily drive many people to vote for the Greens (however some will), it’ll just drive voters to vote for the Libs or their satellites. If the voters are going to get Liberal policies, they’re better off just voting for the Libs in the first place. Or if they can’t bring themselves to vote for the Libs directly, voting for one of their satellites as a “protest”.
Briefly’s first post after the election was for all on the left of the political spectrum to unite to defeat the LNP at the next election. His strategy for uniting those on the left is to eradicate the Greens. If this is typical of the ALP strategies and strategists, it’s no wonder they lost the unloseable election and will lose every election into the near future.
It is obvious to anyone who has even a primary school level of arithmetic, that with a primary vote of just 33%, the ALP needs the Greens (for their preferences) far more than the Greens need Labor.
a r @ #106 Friday, July 5th, 2019 – 11:27 am
😆
But seriously, folks, someone like that.
MQ
I was not being disrespectful of the James or Booths. Bogan was the term that C@t used. For me they were well respected because their life experience (maybe not so much Ken who was a college teacher) was the same as their electors and they kept close to their roots. When it was difficult to choose number plates, ken kept his father’s plates GB 135. He would get a new car every 3 years but always chose a white one in the same model as he didn’t want to flaunt his wealth before the voters.
I don’t know Joel but his media person is very different and I can imagine his voters see him as lacking empathy
Rex Douglas @ #158 Friday, July 5th, 2019 – 12:00 pm
Here’s my order of preferred governments for Australia …
(1) Labor.
(2) Daylight.
(3) Liberal.
(4) Any of the kooky minority political parties.
(5) Greens
DanG and RexD,
You may not have noticed this at the last election, so intent are you on forcing the hand of Labor further to the Left, but Andrew-Earlwood is correct in saying that Labor needs to concentrate on and consolidate those votes from the Centre Right who have gravitated over to the Centre Left as a result of Labor’s policies of fairness.
Caption this?
lizzie @ #159 Friday, July 5th, 2019 – 12:05 pm
The GST increase is coming…
lizzie @ #139 Friday, July 5th, 2019 – 12:05 pm
Yes, I saw that interview. Mendacious, mean and tricky, to the last. It’s Liberal. It lies.
Rex Douglas @ #143 Friday, July 5th, 2019 – 12:07 pm
Both, in order to pay for Stage 3.
Briefly’s mantra of ‘destroy the greens’ is a resuscitation of Cato’s persistent call that ‘Carthage must be destroyed’ in the Roman Senate. ‘Carthago delenda est’ was repeated by Cato Ad nauseam:
” He then restlessly called for its destruction, ending all his speeches with the famous phrase, even when the debate was on a completely different matter.”
Eventually Carthage was destroyed and its population sold into slavery. Perhaps in the future we can imagine hipster slaves toiling for Briefly’s ‘working people’ in galvanized workshops. No more smashed avo’s, just tomato and cheese sandwiches which all working people love.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carthago_delenda_est
I don’t trust the Morrison/Libs. Whenever Albo or Labor say conciliatory things about working together it brings up bad memories.
Needless to say Cato attracted a similar level of frustration and anger from Senators that Briefly does from Bludgers. 🙂
C@tmomma @ #164 Friday, July 5th, 2019 – 10:06 am
How many voters (in percentage terms) did they attract from the “centre-right”? Considerably less than the 18% Labor needs to win an election without Greens preferences I’ve no doubt. The corollary to that is how many centre left voters are they prepared to lose in order to win over these centre right voters?
lizzie:
[‘Caption this?’]
“I love and trust youse all.”
This is about the only thing Tom got right:
[‘At this stage, the Coalition’s third-term agenda is largely undefined.’]
https://www.smh.com.au/national/something-genuinely-good-has-emerged-from-parliament-20190705-p524eu.html
Van Badham’s latest:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jul/05/labors-support-for-tax-cuts-is-an-unfathomable-betrayal-of-principle
mundo
Don’t tell me the economy is going backwards, tell the punters, the one’s who believed Scrott’s bullshit during the election and probably still do.
———————————-
Do the punters believe Morrison, I don’t think they do. Morrison won because the ALP were too threatening and incoherent lead by someone people didn’t trust. The Liberals were basically returned with their pre-redistribution margin.
Shalailah Medhora@shalailah
The Govt and Labor have voted down a motion in the Senate by @SenatorSiewert to increase Newstart by $75 a week.
I understand that money bills can’t be put up in the Senate (unless they go back to the HOR for defeat anyway) and I understand that this was a so-called stunt by the Greens to make a point, but why is Labor so opposed to lifting Newstart?
When they expected to become govt, promising a review was fine, but why not put pressure on Coalition by supporting Acoss now?
Gorks says:
Friday, July 5, 2019 at 11:47 am
Labor should focus their election campaigning on working class base. There was too much emphasis on progressive issues. 6 months from election till the day the ballot was held ALP was talking about abortion rights, female empowerment, indigenous rights, climate change etc. No benefit in 2PP terms. Divisive in certain communities, irrelevant to working class people and their concerns. Those issues better handled when in government.
——————————-
To some extent the ALP did get bogged down on special interest issues but climate change is a major issue not just environmentally but also economically and socially so it needed to be campaigned on.
lizzie
Because they are on a unity ticket with the Coalition on this issue ? They are terrified of 2GB and Murdoch press and what they will say if Labor looks ‘soft’ on “dole bludging layabouts’ ?
I think when you live in the Canberra Bubble like politicians do you have a different perspective to the voter in Australia
I have no idea what Albo thinks he is doing. I hope he knows he is a seat warmer and has the dignity to resign when the next leader appears
Refer to Shorten post election resignation, anointing of Tanya Plibersek then putting his hand up when Albo was next in line for leadership
I like Tanya and Penny but who would put them into a leadership role when the media are slavering to destroy them and their families
Albo clearly isn’t up to the job of keeping Labor voters loyal in the same way Rudd Mark 2 peeled off labor voters who voted Greens
@poroti
Anthony Albanese probably realizes that Labor since 1993 has only won a majority in a Federal Election, when the News Corporation newspapers in New South Wales and Queensland endorsed Labor on election day.
lizzie @ #177 Friday, July 5th, 2019 – 12:30 pm
When you’re piss-weak, you’re piss-weak.
I mean seriously, they couldn’t care less what their members think, they’re only concerned with what the media will say.
Or maybe it’s all the Green’s fault. Who knows?
poroti says:
Friday, July 5, 2019 at 12:42 pm
Because they are on a unity ticket with the Coalition on this issue ? They are terrified of 2GB and Murdoch press and what they will say if Labor looks ‘soft’ on “dole bludging layabouts’ ?
———————————–
This is where the ALP lacks self awareness, they are not willing to discuss raising newstart out of fear of the 2GB crowd yet the ALP was quite happy to declare that we will change negative gearing and franking credits. Now who is likely to be upset by that, well non other than the 2GB crowd, the ALP might as well have just gone with a raising newstart policy.
Whilst the Greens gleefully set about slagging and bagging Labor, the results of their efforts are being felt by the environment (which was once important to them)
I fear that Labor as an organisation have seriously lost their mojo. It makes it hard to think clearly, but I don’t think it helps to have so many disappointed fans roaring at them.
On the lack of support from the “lower classes” (sorry, but I can’t think of an appropriate title just now). I don’t expect those at the bottom of the income scale have money to spare for much media surfing, may only see Rupert’s headlines. How to reach them may be a big problem.
Someone posted this earlier …
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-07-05/what-we-can-learn-from-ancient-civilisations/11267702
I’ve been mulling it over, and I think I agree with the premise that what we are seeing now – with the undermining or collapse of many of our social and democratic systems and institutions – is very likely just the precursor to a more general societal collapse.
What I am intrigued by is the notion that these collapses almost always coincide with climate changes. The question is – which comes first? It is easy to assume that the climatic change happens first, and the societal collapse inevitably follows. But it is also plausible that people’s anticipation of the consequences of climate change cause changes in their behaviour that induce the societal collapse even before the climate has had time to change significantly. So the society may actually collapse first. If so, this would explain the seemingly unstoppable worldwide rise of the annihilistic lunar right.
Only one thing is certain – we are all going to find out the hard way 🙁
I think you skipped a step. It’s probably something like:
Climate change -> fear of collapse -> war -> collapse
Our policies are perfectly clear – oh yes?
…
[‘The Govt and Labor have voted down a motion in the Senate by @SenatorSiewert to increase Newstart by $75 a week.’]
Certainly not a good look. If anyone’s more deserving, it’s those on Newstart.
Gorks in the 1950s when women stayed home and minded the children who appeared like or not pretty regularly without effective contraception the typical Labor voter was male working in mining, manufacturing or construction. The cultural myth was that the husband was head of the house, the breadwinner and made the major household decisions, and that’s how things should be
In 2020 the workforce has changed, manufacturing has almost disappeared, mining employs far fewer people, thank goodness, construction workers are self-employed sub -contractors who have deluded themselves into think they are bosses. 80% workforce employed in tertiary or service industries
Meanwhile women can control their fertility, are more likely to finish school and university and can know work in information industries in addition to the traditional teacher nurse secretary shop assistant roles of the past. The modern unionised workforce is female so those concerns you derided are of major concern to young women, things like
Getting your full wages and entitlements
Affordable housing
Access to abortion
Free 3 year old kinder
Aged Care for elderly parents
Free dental for school kids
Subsidised dental for pensioners
Pre school childcare – who wants to retrain after 3 years baby making, so professional women must return to work when infant is 10 months
If Labor wants to remain relevant it has to appeal to the majority of the population ie 52% of Australians are women.
If Joel Fitzgibbon is worried about his seat he needs to come out of his fathers shadow. My uncle reckoned he inherited Hunter
Lizzie
The ALP’s problem is that it listens too much to those whose solution is to just take from one group of people and to give it another group and in the process they miss the point of what people want. They don’t want hand outs, they want opportunity. Whitlam, Hawke and Keating understood that and had the ALP focused on the economy and what is wrong with the government they probably would have won easily. The otherday you wrote that you don’t like the word aspiration. but what is aspiration, a worker encourages his children to study so they can get a better job in future, or a worker pays off their mortgage so the kids don’t need a mortgage and a worker buys a few shares in the hope they will generate future income to enable them to travel in their retirement. Yet the ALP or some of its supporters see this as being rich or greed.
It’s not the first time the Coalition and Labor have been on a unity ticket to vote down a motion to increase Newstart.
Peg
Get used to it.
Green stunt motions in the Senate will continue to be voted down, as they are Constitutionally invalid and dismissed by the representatives of 90% of the Australian people.
sprocket
Labor don’t do stunts. Oh wait, just the other day Labor put forward an amendment to change the title of the tax cuts bill to something really, really serious, not. Now that’s a stunt.
sprocket,
Get used to Labor throwing its hands up into the air and rolling over.
a r @ #187 Friday, July 5th, 2019 – 1:00 pm
Well, that’s kind of my point. The climate has not changed enough yet to cause major grief, but the fear of it probably has. The tipping point we are going to reach first may not be one of the climatic one – it may be our own fear that causes the collapse.
Parliament has changed but back in November 2018:
https://www.acoss.org.au/media_release/from-kerryn-to-derryn-bob-to-bandt-entire-lower-house-crossbench-and-key-senate-crossbenchers-support-increase-to-newstart/
I speculate Labor’s membership drive might hit a snag.
lizzie @ #188 Friday, July 5th, 2019 – 1:01 pm
I haven’t heard what Bob Carr has said, but we sure as hell do need a population policy!