Preferences and preselections

More data on One Nation voters’ newly acquired and surprisingly forceful enthusiasm for preferencing the Coalition.

The Australian Electoral Commission quietly published the full distributions of lower house preferences earlier this week, shedding light on the election’s remaining known unknown: how close One Nation came to maybe pulling off a miracle in Hunter. Joel Fitzgibbon retained the seat for Labor with a margin of 2.98% over the Nationals, landing him on the wrong end of a 9.48% swing – the third biggest of the election after the central Queensland seats of Capricornia and Dawson, the politics of coal mining being the common thread between all three seats.

The wild card in the deck was that Hunter was also the seat where One Nation polled strongest, in what a dare say was a first for a non-Queensland seat – 21.59%, compared with 23.47% for the Nationals and 35.57% for Labor. That raised the question of how One Nation might have done in the final count if they emerged ahead of the Nationals on preferences. The answer is assuredly not-quite-well-enough, but we’ll never know for sure. As preferences from mostly left-leaning minor candidates were distributed, the gap between Nationals and One Nation barely moved, the Nationals gaining 4.81% to reach 28.28% at the final distribution, and One Nation gaining 4.79% to fall short with 26.38%. One Nation preferences then proceeded to flow to the Nationals with noteworthy force, with the final exclusion sending 19,120 votes (71.03%) to the Nationals and 28.97% to Labor.

Speaking of, the flow of minor party preferences between the Coalition and Labor is the one detail of the election result on which the AEC is still holding out. However, as a sequel to last week’s offering on Senate preferences, I offer the following comparison of flows in Queensland in 2016 and 2019. This is based on Senate ballot paper data, observing the number that placed one major party ahead of the either, or included neither major party in their preference order. In the case of the 2016 election, this is based on a sampling of one ballot paper in 50; the 2019 data is from the full set of results.

It has been widely noted that the Coalition enjoyed a greatly improved flow of One Nation preferences in the lower house, but the Senate results offer the interesting twist that Labor’s share hardly changed – evidently many One Nation voters who numbered neither major party in 2016 jumped off the fence and preferenced the Coalition this time. Also notable is that Labor received an even stronger share of Greens preferences than in 2016. If this was reflected nationally, it’s a phenomenon that has passed unnoticed, since the flow of One Nation and United Australia Party preferences was the larger and more telling story.

Other electorally relevant developments of the past week or so:

• Laura Jayes of Sky News raises the prospect of the Nationals asserting a claim to the Liberal Senate vacancy created by Arthur Sinodinos’s appointment to Washington. The Nationals lost one of their two New South Wales seats when Fiona Nash fell foul of Section 44 in late 2017, resulting in a recount that delivered to the Liberals a seat that would otherwise have been held by the Nationals until 2022. Since that is also when Sinodinos’s term expires, giving the Nationals the seat would restore an order in which the Nationals held two out of the five Coalition seats.

• Fresh from her win over Tony Abbott in Warringah, The Australian reported on Tuesday that Zali Steggall was refusing to deny suggestions she might be persuaded to join the Liberal Party, although she subsequently complained the paper had twisted her words. A report in The Age today notes both “allies and opponents” believe Steggall will struggle to win re-election as an independent with Abbott out of the picture, and gives cause to doubt she would survive a preselection challenge as a Liberal.

• Labor is undergoing a personnel change in the Victorian Legislative Council after the resignation of Philip Dalidakis, who led the party’s ticket for Southern Metropolitan region at both the 2014 and 2018 elections. Preserving the claim of the Right faction Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association, the national executive is set to anoint Enver Erdogan, a workplace lawyer for Maurice Blackburn, former Moreland councillor and member of the Kurdish community. The Australian reports former Melbourne Ports MP Michael Danby has joined the party’s Prahran and Brighton branches in registering displeasure that the national executive is circumventing a rank-and-file plebiscite. Particularly contentious is Erdogan’s record of criticism of Israel, a sore point in a region that encompasses Melbourne’s Jewish stronghold around Caulfield.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,628 comments on “Preferences and preselections”

Comments Page 24 of 33
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  2. In 1950, average full time male weekly earnings was £296.3.7 pa Female FT AWE was £146.18.4 pa.

    The tax payable on a wage of £296.3.7 would have been about £12.0.0….or about 7.5%. The tax payable on median wages would have been rather less…around 1.5% annually….before any rebates, family allowances and child endowment payments.

    This scale was created by Curtin and Chifley.

    This served working people very well. Wages were higher as a share of GDP. Taxes were low. Real income growth was steady and sustained most of the time.

    We now see universal repression of working people. This is directly attributable to the many years of Liberal rule, more recently in collaboration with the Greens.

  3. Thanks BK for your work providing the Dawn Patrol.

    Cartoons are a welcome distraction as is an email this morning.
    I ordered an EBook from Amazon recently and big surprise am now getting almost daily suggestions for new purchases.

    Q. Decisions – should I get out my Kindle or should I look at The Australian ❓
    A. No-0-0-0000000 ❓

    Dang me ❗ There a couple of items just too juicy to bypass.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/dataroom/coke-looks-to-quench-acquisition-thirst-with-nudie-juice-and-t2/news-story/7b553cf16ee7c0c060939b2395fc189e

    As well as —
    The fascinating re-run of the Oz campaign refuting Climate Change science.

    But first – a cartoon

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/the-fact-is-that-our-earth-has-ice-in-its-veins/news-story/f2af42c9a5614084f0b4e1af68e8442a

    A fine photograph of Cooling Towers is provided with this article. Probably looks better than dead black throated whatsisnames.

    Climate change is a defining issue of our time, especially for young people who are persuaded that we are doomed unless urgent action is taken on carbon emissions. Activists, with some success, are demanding climate emergencies be declared around the world, making those demands on the basis that temperatures are at record highs, glaciers and sea ice are melting at unprecedented rates, and sea levels rising dangerously.

    A cursory examination of the geological literature shows that the first two assertions are simply not true, and that rising sea levels are par for the course.

    So youf of Orstraya pull youse heads in and do something useful – don’t waste your, and our, time with pointless activities. Join with Senator the Hon Concetta Fierravanti-Wells in campaigning for Religious Rights.

    From the BK Files.
    As is evidenced by culture warrior Connie with this effort.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/a-pox-on-both-their-houses-senator-warns-of-voter-backlash-if-religious-freedoms-not-protected-20190706-p524qe.html

    I am unsure as to the process with the Nudie Juice. Should one bathe it, drink it or use it in some bizarre mandatory BDSM Full Moon Midnight Extravaganza ❓ ☮☕☕

  4. ajm

    As I have already posted in response to Dio’s question :

    Was Possum making those comments before the election or only after Labor lost?

    The comments made by Possum via his twitter account that sprocket so helpfully provided but without a time stamp were tweeted on July 6 2019.

    One of his tweets comprising his twitter rant:

    https://twitter.com/Pollytics/status/1147464923917631488

    Click on each separate tweet you will find the date stamp at the bottom.

    Perhaps ajm has blocked me. If so would someone like to inform him.

  6. briefly
    says:
    Monday, July 8, 2019 at 9:27 am
    In 1950, average full time male weekly earnings was £296.3.7 pa Female FT AWE was £146.18.4 pa.
    _______________________________
    you’ve just plucked that from google and it is not correct. That table is

    Average yearly wage factory workers in Victoria:

    If you look at: Average yearly wage managers and clerks it is:

    1950 £433 1s 4d

    Honestly, you are pathetic.

  7. “We now see universal repression of working people. This is directly attributable to the many years of Liberal rule, more recently in collaboration with the Greens.”

    FFS – your Greens obsession is delusional

    labor has voted with the LNP many more times than have the Greens. The Greens have opposed regressive tax breaks and watering down of the IR system EVERY TIME even when the ALP backed (or even authored) the legislation. Last week is a case in point.

    The ALP’s dismantling of centralised wage setting and weakening of the unions set the field for Howard and subsequent LNP governments.

    How have the greens colluded?

    you are getting well beyond crazy on this.

  8. Finally, someone has done the maths:

    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6261371/australias-share-of-emissions-up-report/?cs=14231

    When we add Australia’s exported emissions to our domestic emissions, Australia rockets to equal fifth on the list of major global climate polluters, alongside Russia and behind only India, the European Union, the USA and China,” Mr McFadzean said.

    How long is it going to take before the truth sinks in that Australia is – per capita – the world’s worst environmental vandal, and by a long, long way? 🙁

  9. It’s NAIDOC week and runs from July 7 to 14.:

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-07-08/sydney-statues-of-colonial-leaders-in-spotlight-again/11285380

    Indigenous leaders have started NAIDOC week by putting the spotlight on Sydney’s statues, saying they represent only a fraction of Australia’s real history.

    There are 25 publicly funded statues of the colony’s early leaders around the CBD.
    :::
    NSW Greens MP David Shoebridge urged the State Government to work with local Aboriginal groups to commission a public statue.

    “Justice for First Nations peoples requires us as a community to tell the truth about how First Nations peoples bravely resisted invasion, how they survived colonisation,” he said.

    “That can’t be done if the only sanctioned historical figures are essentially white men with the occasional cat or queen thrown in.”

  10. 1984
    $0-4500 = $0 tax
    $4501-$12000 = $2108.27
    $12,001-$19,500 = 30%…

    So on $17336…$3,558…20.5%…

    My bad….but still less than workers pay now….

  12. sustainable future says:
    Monday, July 8, 2019 at 9:35 am
    “We now see universal repression of working people. This is directly attributable to the many years of Liberal rule, more recently in collaboration with the Greens.”

    FFS – your Greens obsession is delusional

    The Greens campaign against Labor. This is not a secret. The beneficiaries of this campaign include the Far Right and the Liberals. This is not a secret either.

  13. The Greens campaign against Labor. This is not a secret. The beneficiaries of this campaign include the Far Right and the Liberals. This is not a secret either.
    __________________________
    that’s better Briefly. Stick to broad delusional brushstrokes. Detail and accuracy is not your thing.

  19. The simplest and fairest way of dealing with this deeming rate issue regarding the Age Pension is to do the following:

    Life the Age Pension to the level of a full-time minimum wage worker’s earnings.

    Lift the minimum wage from $19.49 per hour to $25 per hour. This is where the wage should be in view of average labour productivity growth since 1970.

    Provide the full Age Pension to everybody of retirement age with no means-testing or restrictions of any kind.

    Make superannuation optional.

    Abolish all tax deductions for superannuation.

  21. Why are farm values leaping?

    Climate change. Most of the northern parts of Australia will eventually be too hot to be habitable. The smart investor starts specualting early.

  22. briefly @ #1140 Monday, July 8th, 2019 – 9:00 am

    Of the 4 times Labor has won from Opposition, the government in 1929 soon collapsed in the context of the Great Depression. Gough had to win twice and lasted just 3 years before being deposed in an extra-constitutional quasi coup. The Rudd government lasted just 2 1/2 years before self-detonating.

    There is a total sense of unreality concerning Labor’s chances of winning and surviving in office. The Liberals run this country. The results of the last 23 years can be seen in the intensifying repression of working people and the steady attrition of Labor’s plurality. The dysfunction on the Left is of a piece with this.

    Labor won office and held it for 13 years.
    Leadership.

  23. nathematically speaking, all is well in the world. Labour repression does not exist. There are no problems that cannot be solved by more years of Liberal rule.

  24. The “war on drugs”….the lack of social housing….scare campaigns about level of crimes, the emphasis on Law and Order instead of the underlying issues….a decade of tough law and order policies by the major parties….

    Drug users push prisons to breaking point, and locking them up often wastes time and money, inquiry finds

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-07-08/locking-up-drug-users-often-a-waste-of-time-money-inquiry-finds/11259094

    The number of drug users being locked up in Queensland prisons is pushing the system to breaking point, according to a major inquiry, which finds society receives little in return for the $107,000 it costs to keep each offender behind bars for a year.

    More people are being sent to prison now than at any time in the past 120 years — despite crime rates being on a steady decline.

  25. As a wise person Tweeted yesterday-The Greens have been in existence for 30 years now and still their vote does not get above ~10%, so why does anyone think doing what they say will make Labor more popular? 90% of the Australian electorate keep saying in election after election that they don’t want what The Greens are offering. Labor would be mad to listen to them.

  28. Similarly in Victoria:

    Includes a graph of Growth in Prison Spending Compared to Education, Hospitals & Housing – Growth data is 2011-12 to 2017-18

    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/stack-and-rack-victoria-s-newest-prison-already-full-and-set-to-expand-again-20190706-p524qr.html

    It’s the second time the Ravenhall Correctional Centre has been enlarged since it opened in late 2017 in a bid to keep pace with the state’s rising prison population, which has soared following a decade-long series of “tough-on-crime” reforms to bail, parole and sentencing laws.
    :::
    The Ravenhall expansion is a sensitive issue for the Andrews government given overcrowding was a major aggravating factor in the 2015 riot at the Metropolitan Remand Centre and Labor’s previous strident criticism about “double bunking” by the former Liberal government.
    :::
    The Andrews government earmarked $1.8 billion in the budget for capital spending on prisons, the centrepiece of which is a 1248-bed prison planned for outside Geelong.

    Victoria’s population has increased but the proportion of people remanded and imprisoned is occurring at a greater rate.

  29. mundo…yes, the Hawke Government was a great success, though the Greens deny it. Many of today’s voters were not born when the Hawke/Keating era ended. We have won just once since then. We have to stop campaigning against ourselves.

  30. ‘a r says:
    Monday, July 8, 2019 at 10:01 am

    Why are farm values leaping?

    Climate change. Most of the northern parts of Australia will eventually be too hot to be habitable. The smart investor starts specualting early.’

    I did some back-of-the-envelope stuff and one reason would have to be that the tens of billions of fed and state subsidies are inflating farm values. I assume that MMT-style free money is cooking up an asset bubble.

    Otherwise, it is hard to understand that NSW farm values went up by around 9% this year when crops are failing and livestock numbers are at historic lows – and that only maintained by going into debt hand feeding breeding herds for when the drought breaks.

  31. nicholas
    Any idea of the Budget ins and outs of that policy package?
    Back of the envelope would be good.
    signed
    Curious.

  32. It looks like the government has finally been rumbled over it’s deeply entrenched (deeming) Retirement Tax. It’s interesting that pensioner groups were quiet as mice on this live issue pre-election but endlessly bleating about a potential-only attack on their franking credits.

  33. The Greens have been in existence for 30 years now

    This “wise” person can not even get a basic fact right. The Greens party has existed as a federated party for 27 years.

  34. ar
    The environmental problem with overcapitalizing farm land is that you end up having to rip the guts out of the land short term in order to service the debts.

  36. ‘Bellwether says:
    Monday, July 8, 2019 at 10:10 am

    It looks like the government has finally been rumbled over it’s deeply entrenched (deeming) Retirement Tax. It’s interesting that pensioner groups were quiet as mice on this live issue pre-election but endlessly bleating about a potential-only attack on their franking credits.’

    God, in His infinite wisdom, told Morrison to lie to retirees and pensioners about taxes.

    And it worked. God is goddamn smart.

    The very, very stupid pensioners who voted for the Coalition in order to avoid the retiree tax and the death tax and the pensioner tax have suddenly twigged that it has been a series of Coalition decisions on Super and deeming that are slugging them!

    The D’oh vote!

  37. Voters vote for governments that lock up lawless people – even if it costs them tax money to do so.

    Simple as that.

    It is because the vast majority of voters do not go around bashing people up in the streets, or mugging them, or breaking into houses and cars to service self-indulgent people who choose to acquire idiotic drug habits.

    The vast majority of voters get it that if the bashers and the druggies are in jail they cannot be frightening you and yours on the street or in your house. It cost us $1500 to repair the damage done to our house by a single addict to break into our house. He stole barely a day’s worth of stuff to maintain his addiction.

    Smart governments listen to voters and get returned.

  38. ‘Quasar says:
    Monday, July 8, 2019 at 10:06 am

    Thanks, BK.
    And thanks KayJay for your delightful daily whimsy.’

    +1

  39. The Greens party has existed as a federated party for 27 years.

    I knew this and was going to correct the error but, you know, it seems like 30 years, so I left it that way. 🙂

    The true fact stated though is that, in all that time, The Greens have been singularly unable to get their vote > ~10% and have succeeded in only gaining one Lower House seat, where the political party popularity rubber really hits the road.

    So the point still stands.

  41. The smart move was in changing the framing of the ‘Deeming Rate’ to the ‘Retirement Tax’ . Coalition, hoist by their own petard. 🙂

  42. Cat

    Labor have been in existence as a major party. They have lost voters and only won rarely.

    When they did win it was by having strong left wing policies. Rudd seemed left wing and was a disappointment

  43. guytaur,
    You may not have realised but Australia is not Victoria. Victoria is the most Progressive State in the nation. The rest of Australia has just said that we are NOT Victoria.

  45. Fuck focusing on statues for a self-indulgent sick political joke: typical inner urban culture war trash wankery.

    The core issues now are:
    1. Implementing the Call from the Heart.
    2. Reinstating the swingeing funding cuts from Indigenous programs.
    3. Reversing the nanny state interventions and replacing them with real self-determination.

  47. If you want to win an election don’t listen to serial failures like Cat Briefly and BW.

    They luxuriate in division

  48. guytaur @ #1248 Monday, July 8th, 2019 – 10:24 am

    Cat

    Labor have been in existence as a major party. They have lost voters and only won rarely.

    When they did win it was by having strong left wing policies. Rudd seemed left wing and was a disappointment

    In your dreams, guytaur.

    Kevin Rudd promised to be John Howard but with a cheery smile. He won in a landslide. Doesn’t that tell you something?

    Bob Hawke won by proposing to do the things on the economic Centre Right that John Howard was failing to do.

    Gough Whitlam flamed out by totally misunderstanding the electorate and attempting to change too much too soon, as valid and needed as those changes were. So he scared the horses, allowed the monarchy and the US to conspire against him and gave the Liberal Party an open barn door to stroll through to victory.

  50. ‘Player One says:
    Monday, July 8, 2019 at 9:35 am

    Finally, someone has done the maths:

    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6261371/australias-share-of-emissions-up-report/?cs=14231

    When we add Australia’s exported emissions to our domestic emissions, Australia rockets to equal fifth on the list of major global climate polluters, alongside Russia and behind only India, the European Union, the USA and China,” Mr McFadzean said.

    How long is it going to take before the truth sinks in that Australia is – per capita – the world’s worst environmental vandal, and by a long, long way? ‘

    1. There is plenty of substitute coal and gas. It would probably be more expensive and might therefore send a market signal to reduce emissions. But… in relation to coal it would also be far more polluting because the available substitutes have lower energy ratings.
    2. It would probably make more sense to do per capita and GDP consumption budgets and working out the net energy emissions on that basis.
    … not that the vast majority of Australian voters are prepared to take a significant hit to their standard of living in order to take into account either method of calculating the consequences of their collective behaviours.

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