Essential Research leadership polling

A belated account of the first set of post-election leadership ratings, recording a victory bounce for Scott Morrison and a tentative debut for Anthony Albanese.

Contrary to expectations it might put its head above the parapet with today’s resumption of parliament, there is still no sign of Newspoll – or indeed any other polling series, at least so far as voting intention is concerned. Essential Research, however, is maintaining its regular polling schedule, but so far it’s been attitudinal polling only. The latest set of results was published in The Guardian on Friday, and it encompasses Essential’s leadership ratings series, which I relate here on a better-late-than-never basis. Featured are the first published ratings for Anthony Albanese, of 35% approval and 25% disapproval, compared with 38% and 44% in the pollster’s final pre-election reading for Bill Shorten.

To put this into some sort of perspective, the following table (click on image to enlarge) provides comparison with Newspoll’s debut results for opposition leaders over the past three decades. The only thing it would seem safe to conclude from this is that Albanese’s numbers aren’t terribly extraordinary one way or the other.

Scott Morrison’s post-election bounce lifts him five points on approval to 48%, with disapproval down three to 36%, and he leads Albanese 43-25 on preferred prime minister, compared with 39-32 for Shorten’s late result. Also featured are questions on tax cuts (with broadly negative responses to the government policy, albeit that some of the question framing is a little slanted for mine), trust in various media outlets (results near-identical to those from last October, in spite of everything), and various indigenous issues (including a finding that 57% would vote yes in a constitutional recognition referendum, compared with 34% for no). The poll was conducted June 19 to June 23 from an online sample of 1079.

Elsewhere in poll-dom:

• Australian Market and Social Research Organisations has established an advisory board and panel for its inquiry into the pollster failure, encompassing an impressive roll call of academics, journalists and statisticians. Ipsos would appear to be the only major Australian polling concern that’s actually a member of AMSRO, but the organisation has “invited a publisher representative from each of Nine Entertainment (Sydney Morning Herald/The Age) and NewsCorp to join the advisory board”.

• A number of efforts have now been made to reverse-engineer a polling trend measure for the last term, using the actual results from 2016 and 2019 as anchoring points. The effort of Simon Jackman and Luke Mansillo at the University of Sydney was noted here last week. Mark the Ballot offers three models – one anchored to the 2016 result, which lands low for the Coalition in 2019, but still higher than what the polls were saying); one anchored to the 2019 result, designed to land on the mark for 2019, but resulting in a high reading for the Coalition in 2016; and, most instructively, one anchored to both, which is designed to land on the mark at both elections. Kevin Bonham offers various approaches that involve polling going off the rails immediately or gradually after the leadership change, during the election campaign, or combinations thereof.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,688 comments on “Essential Research leadership polling”

  1. phoenixRED @ #1348 Thursday, July 4th, 2019 – 4:09 pm

    Diogenes says:

    Thursday, July 4, 2019 at 4:02 pm

    Communists killed a lot more people than the Nazis but you can’t go past Nazi Germany as an evil state.

    ******************************************************

    A lot more people died under Stalin and Mao – but it was more due to things like famine and political decisions rather than the dedicated planned murder of concentration camp/Einsatzgruppen etc of the Nazi’s …..

    ( According to the authoritative “Black Book of Communism,” an estimated 65 million Chinese died as a result of Mao’s repeated, merciless attempts to create a new “socialist” China. Anyone who got in his way was done away with — by execution, imprisonment or forced famine. )

    https://www.heritage.org/asia/commentary/the-legacy-mao-zedong-mass-murder

    …and then there’s all the death and destruction in the name of religious faiths that still needs Govt protections…

  2. Labor should have voted for tax cuts. They campaigned for tax cuts. They have urged the Liberals to go further. They would be crazy to vote against their own policies and demands.

    The progressive income tax system is all but finished. It will not be rebuilt unless and until Labor win office again. The Liberals want to legislate eternal deficits. They do have the numbers. They will prevail until the centre-left get their shit together….and even then, the Right could very well still prevail.

  3. I’m officially on strike re any comment regarding Karvelas 4pm ABC24 program today for obvious reasons right now on the screen.

  4. Nothing. Depending on what team she does happen to be on she generates hyperbolic hatred against the team she had previously barracked for a nanosecond earlier.

  5. https://www.smh.com.au/environment/conservation/warragamba-dam-plan-stirs-world-heritage-committee-worry-over-values-20190703-p523wr.html

    mundo @ #1301 Thursday, July 4th, 2019 – 2:21 pm

    lizzie @ #1293 Thursday, July 4th, 2019 – 2:07 pm

    Nup. Can’t bear to listen to a triumphant Morrison telling fibs.
    There was a time when I actually enjoyed QT.

    Can’t stand listening to the deafening silence coming from the opposition benches as they allow every one of Scrotts lies through to the keeper.

    After voting with the government against raising Newstart, it’s easy to think that they’ve just given up.

    The opposition benches are very comfortable and relaxing, if you don’t actually do all that much opposing.

    But it’s all the fault of those bloody greens.

  6. adrian

    It frustrates me that after a Q and a reply, there is no opportunity for the Oppn to refute the lies that fall from govt. lips. It’s on to the next Q.

  7. Rex Douglas says:

    Thursday, July 4, 2019 at 4:13 pm

    phoenixRED @ #1348 Thursday, July 4th, 2019 – 4:09 pm

    …and then there’s all the death and destruction in the name of religious faiths that still needs Govt protections…

    *******************************************************

    As Jon Stewart said : Religion – it’s given people hope in a world torn apart by religion

    Richard Jeni : Going to war over religion, is basically just killing people in an argument over who has the better imaginary friend.

  8. “What do you mean ‘grubs’.

    What’s so bad about voting against both Lib and Lab tax cut versions, as Bandt did ..?

    Society needs that revenue to sustain and enhance social programs and create green jobs.”

    By voting to split the bill, he could have still then voted each element of the tax cuts down if he so chose to: so he would have lost nothing ‘on principle’.

    However, that would have meant explaining why he opposed tax relief for low income workers (stage 1) from this week and why bringing forward some elements from stage 2 for middle income workers to start this week to stimulate the economy – as the Governor of the Reserve Bank said should also happen – is such a bad idea.

    The fact that Bandt wasnt prepared to to the sensible thing and unbundle the package so that each element could then be considered by parliament on its merits is what makes him a grub. His motives, like Peggy’s is blatant: to put shit on labor and peddle your favourite Pegarex ‘lib-lab, same, same’ trope.

  9. ‘Pegasus says:
    Thursday, July 4, 2019 at 4:10 pm

    Victorian National Parks Association campaign on RFAs and logging in Victoria:

    Stop another 20 years of logging in Victoria’

    The Greens have been around for 27 years. For that entire time, they have totally failed to protect native forests… not a single tree have they protected. Not one. They have declared no national parks. Not one. Not ever.
    This utter failure on the part of the Greens is clearly a signal to… attack Labor with a bit of energetic thought leadership with the odd wedge thrown in.

  10. Guardian

    Looks like Labor has come to a position on what to do with the tax cuts (it’s just a political decision at this point)

    Jim Chalmers and Anthony Albanese will speak to the media

  11. Rococo Liberal @ #1316 Thursday, July 4th, 2019 – 3:25 pm

    Thus speaks the commie green, who thinks that all money is public money.

    All money (earned in any given year) is assessable money (for that year). If you disagree, go argue your point with the ATO and then tell us how you go.

    People who earn lots of money in a given year can make a proportionally larger contribution and still be way, way richer than the plebs. Because it’s the public institutions that enable them to earn their income in the first place and which enforce laws that restrain other people from just waltzing over and taking it.

    Also, fiat currency; all money is only worth whatever the public currency issuer says it is. So pretty much, all public.

    the commies were far worse villains than the nazis

    Totalitarian fascists are bad regardless of their ideology.

    Also, Godwin’s Law.

  12. Boerwar

    I’m on the side of the VNPA in this. Labor have fiddled about and not bitten the bullet on preserving the old growth forests. The RFAs are a disaster, first created by that great conservationist, Howard.

  13. Simon² Katich® says:
    Thursday, July 4, 2019 at 3:50 pm
    Thus speaks the commie green, who thinks that all money is public money.
    Public money is public money. You still have oodles of private money (although I am sure Nicho might have a take on this). Public money has been used for decades (here, at this level, for about 80 years) to very successfully even out the bumps and harshness of the market. More than that, it has enhanced the market with such crucial institutions of safety nets and equal opportunity. Markets thrive in a meritocracy – and you wont get that in laissez fairy land. Wise use of public moneys helps business in many other ways too – with targeted infrastructure they wouldn’t build in a dog eat dog society. And then there is the benefit of collectively using central funds in things like health care – where it is far more efficiently used (yes, more efficiently – governments can be more efficient than the market) as well as delivering great outcomes across the board.

    The capitalist economy regularly generates market failures. The remedies to these failures are to be found in State actions of various kinds. The Reactionaries do not accept this. They practically deny the existence of public domains at all. Yet without effective State regulation of the economy and the social order neither the economy nor the social order would exist. They would collapse.

    The assault on the social economy by the Right will result in substantial economic duress. There will be economic and social repression. This has already commenced. It will get worse. And the Reactionaries think this will provide them with many more opportunities to further their anti-social agenda. They’re probably correct.

  14. Andrew_Earlwood @ #1362 Thursday, July 4th, 2019 – 4:19 pm

    “What do you mean ‘grubs’.

    What’s so bad about voting against both Lib and Lab tax cut versions, as Bandt did ..?

    Society needs that revenue to sustain and enhance social programs and create green jobs.”

    By voting to split the bill, he could have still then voted each element of the tax cuts down if he so chose to: so he would have lost nothing ‘on principle’.

    However, that would have meant explaining why he opposed tax relief for low income workers (stage 1) from this week and why bringing forward some elements from stage 2 for middle income workers to start this week to stimulate the economy – as the Governor of the Reserve Bank said should also happen – is such a bad idea.

    The fact that Bandt wasnt prepared to to the sensible thing and unbundle the package so that each element could then be considered by parliament on its merits is what makes him a grub. His motives, like Peggy’s is blatant: to put shit on labor and peddle your favourite Pegarex ‘lib-lab, same, same’ trope.

    Bandt has no obligation to play Labors game on propositions he flatly rejects for very good reason .

    Labor dug their own grave.

  15. Tom the first and best says: Thursday, July 4, 2019 at 4:23 pm

    https://www.pollbludger.net/2019/07/02/essential-research-leadership-polling/comment-page-28/#comment-3213833

    The number of people killed by Communist regimes is in the tens of millions, Bush/Blair/Howard wars in the hundreds of thousands at most.

    *********************************************

    I have posted this before but …….

    A few years before his death, former secretary of Defense Robert McNamara told students at American University that 3.8 million Vietnamese died in that war. Most college students, when asked in informal surveys, place the number at a quarter of that amount or less. The Vietnam Memorial Wall in D.C. contains the names of 58,272 Americans who died in the war. Its message is that the tragedy of that wretched war was that 58,000 Americans died. The wall is 146 feet long.

    Imagine a wall that also contained the names of all the Vietnamese, Cambodians, Laotians, and others who died. Such a wall would be over 4 miles long.

    It would not only be a fitting memorial to all the victims of “American exceptionalism,” it would be a perfect tombstone for that most dangerous of American myths.

  16. Random thought:

    For every bill that the government introduces into the lower house this term that contains a revenue measure (i.e. a money bill) Labor should reintroduce an amendment seeking to insert stage 2 tax cuts to start forthwith: the government will vote them down every time and Labor can keep a tally of individual coalition MPs votes so that Labor can run a hit campaign on Mainstream and Social media at the next federal election: “Joe Blogs MP says he is fighting for you, but during the last Parliament he voted X times to stop YOU getting a tax cut, but votes three times to his wage go up $12,000 in the last three years. Joe Blogs isn’t on your side, only his own. Oink. Oink”.

  17. BH
    Wallsend was where I grew up. A labor vote of less than 75% would have been unimmaginable when Bert James was the member but Fitzgibbon got 40% and the swing to One Nation vote was 26%
    Serious disenchantment of the party base

  18. Labor are quite right to refuse to support Green positions. As long as the Greens practice to destroy Labor, they must be opposed. This is simply common sense. The Greens cannot be rewarded for their chicanery; for their duplicity and treachery.

  19. I wonder what BK and SK are thinking about their Local Member, Rebekha Sharkie, and her party, voting for the whole suite of tax cuts?
    C@t
    I shall tell when I next see her.

  20. Guardian

    Anthony Albanese began by talking about the amendments Labor wants on the tax bill – bringing stage two (already legislated) forward, bring forward infrastructure spending (a lot of it is happening in the forwards and beyonds) and delaying the third tranche of this part of the tax package (30% flat tax for those earning between $45,000 and $200,000 from 2024)

    Those amendments won’t be going anywhere, because the crossbench has already come on board.

    And so, Albanese says, if not successful, Labor will “not oppose the package”

  21. The Guardian

    So the short version of that – Labor will let the whole tax package go through when the amendments fail, so that the first two stages are legislated immediately.

    They will vote for it.

  22. De Natale is getting stuck into Labor as if they have the numbers. He says “nothing’s changed”, but it has. The crossbench are supporting the LNP.

  23. Oakeshott Country says:
    Thursday, July 4, 2019 at 4:31 pm
    BH
    Wallsend was where I grew up. A labor vote of less than 75% would have been unimmaginable when Bert James was the member but Fitzgibbon got 40% and the swing to One Nation vote was 26%
    Serious disenchantment of the party base

    Yup. Working people have started voting for the Anti-Hero Right. This is troubling. Whether it becomes entrenched depends on whether ON can keep its wheels on. What it really shows is that working people have lost confidence in Labor and the Liberals when it comes to job creation and wages. They have chosen the Up Yours Party.

  24. Labor’s full statement:

    “Labor’s highest priority throughout this tax cut debate has been to get more money into the hands of more workers, sooner, to boost an economy which is floundering under the Liberals.

    We took to the election bigger, fairer tax cuts for people on low and middle incomes and after the election we proposed amendments which were all about passing the first two stages, bringing forward part of Stage Two, and removing Stage Three from the Bill.

    We fought hard for these responsible, sensible changes but ultimately they weren’t supported in either House. The Government even voted against their own tax cuts being delivered sooner.

    When it became impossible to get everything we wanted, we had to prioritise what matters most.

    We will not oppose the passage of the legislation because we want to make sure Australians receive their tax cut now and that the benefits of the first stage start circulating through the economy and aren’t further delayed.

    The Government’s highest priority was to commit to a $95 billion tax cut in five years without revealing what they will cut to pay for it or knowing what the Budget and economy will look like at that point.

    We have argued that it is irresponsible to commit to Stage Three five years out, and that remains our view.

    A Government which has already broken its core election promise to introduce tax cuts by 1 July can hardly guarantee it will deliver more expensive tax cuts five years and five Budgets from now.

    We will review Stage Three closer to the next election and propose our own policies which take into account the economic and budget conditions at the time.”

    __________________________________

    Amy says the short of it is that Labor will vote the package through. However that statement actually provides scope for Labor to simply abstain.

  25. ‘Tom the first and best says:
    Thursday, July 4, 2019 at 4:23 pm

    https://www.pollbludger.net/2019/07/02/essential-research-leadership-polling/comment-page-28/#comment-3213833

    The number of people killed by Communist regimes is in the tens of millions, Bush/Blair/Howard wars in the hundreds of thousands at most.’

    The latter is probably incorrect.

    The sleeper is the Iraq Blockade which may well have killed over a million people. Australia participated in this blockade. Its consequences have been completely expunged from the national consciousness.

    If you add up all the rest and accept that the destabilization and civil war in Syria was a direct result of the Iraq War then deaths probably totally over 2 million:

    https://www.thenation.com/article/hard-look-iraq-sanctions/

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualties_of_the_Iraq_War

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yemeni_Civil_War_(2015%E2%80%93present)

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Civilian_casualties_in_the_war_in_Afghanistan_(2001%E2%80%93present)

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualties_of_the_Syrian_Civil_War


  26. briefly says:
    Thursday, July 4, 2019 at 4:31 pm

    Labor are quite right to refuse to support Green positions. As long as the Greens practice to destroy Labor, they must be opposed. This is simply common sense. The Greens cannot be rewarded for their chicanery; for their duplicity and treachery.

    Exactly; don’t get involved in their anti Labor stunts one way or the other.

  27. Interesting stat!

    Peter Whish-Wilson@SenatorSurfer
    5h5 hours ago

    Jacqui Lambie think this tax cuts package that benefit the wealthy are good for #Tasmania? Did she realise that in the PM’s electorate alone, there are more income earners over $180,000 getting a leg up than in the entire state of Tassie? She’s been conned.

  28. Dog help us……..seriously? Comparing whether Communism or Fascism has the higher score on human deaths? Is this what it has come to? Anyone who has read any history at all about the Spanish invasion of Central and South America can get some idea of the sheer cheapness of human life – the locals were as indifferent about life as were the Spanish……………..The thing was, of course, the Spanish came in the name of a European deity which meant conscience did not come into it all. As they say, Cross in one hand and sword in the other. All good…………………………..

  29. Di Natale is reading from the Bib Brown handbook; which shows how to blame Labor for everything, including the misdeeds of the Liberals.

    There will always be a reason to attack Labor as far as the Greens are concerned. They might fault the Liberals. But instead they will rise against Labor. They are the Lib-Kin.

  30. Anthony Albanese says Labor is saying “very clearly” that at this stage, it is against stage three, but the party will make a final decision on its position on that 2024 stage closer to the next election (in three years time).

    So Labor is saying it will pass this whole package – even the bits it doesn’t like – but reserves the right to possibly repeal the last stage.

  31. Tricot says: Thursday, July 4, 2019 at 4:38 pm

    As they say, Cross in one hand and sword in the other. All good…………………………..

    **************************************************************

    Religion – basically guilt with different holidays.

  32. lizzie says:
    Thursday, July 4, 2019 at 4:37 pm
    Interesting stat!

    Peter Whish-Wilson@SenatorSurfer
    5h5 hours ago

    Jacqui Lambie think this tax cuts package that benefit the wealthy are good for #Tasmania? Did she realise that in the PM’s electorate alone, there are more income earners over $180,000 getting a leg up than in the entire state of Tassie? She’s been conned.

    Lambie is a Lib. She always has been. She subscribes to the Lib agenda on taxes. She has played this well. She will be remembered as the Senator for tax cuts as well as the voice of Tasmania. She has not been conned. Rather, the Green has conned himself.

  33. Boerwar

    But it was ‘worth it’ , just ask Medeleine….

    Lesley Stahl on U.S. sanctions against Iraq:
    We have heard that a half million children have died. I mean, that’s more children than died in Hiroshima. And, you know, is the price worth it?

    Secretary of State Madeleine Albright:
    I think this is a very hard choice, but the price–we think the price is worth it.

    —60 Minutes (5/12/96)

  34. Labor should vote for tax cuts. This is self-evident. The cuts do not go far enough. Taxes on working people should be substantially reduced, especially at the lower end of the spectrum.

  35. Challenge anyone who thinks that just under 3 years from now, come the election campaign, all the crap about the comings and goings of the so-called “tax debate” will be remembered………Who can remember any issues of the 2016 election other than “Jobson Growthe” and “Medicare Scare”? The electorate has the memory span of a gnat. The tragics here maybe not so but as they represent some miniscule part of the electorate, what does it matter?

  36. @Vic_Rollison
    6h6 hours ago

    Fact: Labor tried to split tax bill in lower house.
    Fact: Labor tried to split tax bill in senate.
    Fact: Labor amendments to split bill were defeated in both houses.
    Fact: Libs, Nats, Lambie, Centre Alliance passed tax bill. This is who you should be directing anger at.

  37. Proposed repeal of the Medevac legislation

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jul/04/peter-duttons-move-to-abolish-medevac-regime-delayed-by-senate-inquiry

    Legislation to repeal the medevac transfer process cannot pass the parliament before late October because it will go to a Senate inquiry, a process giving supporters of the current arrangements a public platform to argue for their retention.

    The repeal legislation, introduced to the House of Representatives on Thursday, will now proceed to an inquiry by the Senate’s Legal and Constitutional Legislative Committee, with a report date of 18 October.

    Guardian Australia understands the Morrison government did not argue against either the inquiry or the reporting date.

  38. Labor should be very clear. They should declare that the Greens do not support tax relief; do not support measures to support the economy; are not troubled by recession or unemployment or the repression of incomes.

    Labor should demand deeper cuts in tax at the low end. They should demand more vigorous action to support the economy and employment.

    Really, the Greens and the Liberals stand together on the economy. Neither will take the measures necessary to lift demand, employment and incomes. The Greens and the Liberals are equally untroubled by the difficulties faced by working people.

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