Essential Research leadership polling

A belated account of the first set of post-election leadership ratings, recording a victory bounce for Scott Morrison and a tentative debut for Anthony Albanese.

Contrary to expectations it might put its head above the parapet with today’s resumption of parliament, there is still no sign of Newspoll – or indeed any other polling series, at least so far as voting intention is concerned. Essential Research, however, is maintaining its regular polling schedule, but so far it’s been attitudinal polling only. The latest set of results was published in The Guardian on Friday, and it encompasses Essential’s leadership ratings series, which I relate here on a better-late-than-never basis. Featured are the first published ratings for Anthony Albanese, of 35% approval and 25% disapproval, compared with 38% and 44% in the pollster’s final pre-election reading for Bill Shorten.

To put this into some sort of perspective, the following table (click on image to enlarge) provides comparison with Newspoll’s debut results for opposition leaders over the past three decades. The only thing it would seem safe to conclude from this is that Albanese’s numbers aren’t terribly extraordinary one way or the other.

Scott Morrison’s post-election bounce lifts him five points on approval to 48%, with disapproval down three to 36%, and he leads Albanese 43-25 on preferred prime minister, compared with 39-32 for Shorten’s late result. Also featured are questions on tax cuts (with broadly negative responses to the government policy, albeit that some of the question framing is a little slanted for mine), trust in various media outlets (results near-identical to those from last October, in spite of everything), and various indigenous issues (including a finding that 57% would vote yes in a constitutional recognition referendum, compared with 34% for no). The poll was conducted June 19 to June 23 from an online sample of 1079.

Elsewhere in poll-dom:

• Australian Market and Social Research Organisations has established an advisory board and panel for its inquiry into the pollster failure, encompassing an impressive roll call of academics, journalists and statisticians. Ipsos would appear to be the only major Australian polling concern that’s actually a member of AMSRO, but the organisation has “invited a publisher representative from each of Nine Entertainment (Sydney Morning Herald/The Age) and NewsCorp to join the advisory board”.

• A number of efforts have now been made to reverse-engineer a polling trend measure for the last term, using the actual results from 2016 and 2019 as anchoring points. The effort of Simon Jackman and Luke Mansillo at the University of Sydney was noted here last week. Mark the Ballot offers three models – one anchored to the 2016 result, which lands low for the Coalition in 2019, but still higher than what the polls were saying); one anchored to the 2019 result, designed to land on the mark for 2019, but resulting in a high reading for the Coalition in 2016; and, most instructively, one anchored to both, which is designed to land on the mark at both elections. Kevin Bonham offers various approaches that involve polling going off the rails immediately or gradually after the leadership change, during the election campaign, or combinations thereof.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,688 comments on “Essential Research leadership polling”

  1. A rather unfortunate surname for one of the kiwi gun lovers. in C@t article.
    .

    In a separate case, gun collector David Craze Sr., who is also a hunter and competition shooter,

  2. The craze for consumer feedback is getting ridiculous

    I have an email from the toll collector wanting me to rate my recent trip on the M2

    (Pretty average, in fact, as i paid full toll for a 1km section)

  3. NZ has a top tax rate of 33% which starts at $70K. Now that’s a flat tax system.

    I remember the first time I went there. I was struck by the inequality. About that time there was a study that showed the inside of NZ houses were on average the coldest in the developed world. The local media tried to turn it around saying it proved the Southern Man was tough. No mention of the poverty that restricts people from putting in insulation or affording good heating options. No mention of mean landlords who refuse to install such.

  4. A lot of people keep saying PB is an “echo chamber”.
    What does this mean?
    Most people with any sense have left the the doomsayers, the misery guts, and crowers here to wallow in it.
    Salutations to those who have the time, patience and thick skins to cope with the Hanrahans who are now dominating the agenda here…………………………

  5. “The craze for consumer feedback is getting ridiculous

    I have an email from the toll collector wanting me to rate my recent trip on the M2

    (Pretty average, in fact, as i paid full toll for a 1km section)”

    Correct weight OC.

    I recently picked up a parcel from my local PO and was asked to “rate the experience”.
    Well Oz Post, I went in, showed the card and my ID, picked up parcel and went out. Blow it out your arse.

  6. Tricot

    Today, I think it meant we are all against ScoMo’s tax cuts and would like to raise welfare payments. Just a wealthy troll strolling by.

  7. Stuart Khan@stukhan
    3m3 minutes ago

    Blue Mountains City Council wants plans to raise the walls of Warragamba Dam dropped after the UN’s World Heritage body said it would involve flooding risks incompatible with the world heritage status of the world famous wilderness area.

  8. I see that the Greens are busy thinkleading in the Senate. Trust the Greens to be too bloody thick to know that the Senate can’t initiate a money bill.
    And then there was Senate President McKim who rather thought that 10 votes in the Senate was worth wasting a whole lot of taxpayer’s money.
    Stunt after stunt after stunt. Wedge after wedge after wedge.
    The whole point of these utterly pointless Greens exercises?
    Another 27 years of Greens look-at-moi!

  9. Adam Bandt on Twitter

    For the $158b cost of the tax cuts that LNP & ALP just voted for, we could build houses for every homeless person in Australia, get dental into Medicare and still have money left over.

    We should use public money to reduce inequality, not for tax cuts for millionaires.

  10. Bill Shorten@billshortenmp
    9m9 minutes ago

    If Minister Stuart Robert says NDIS going so well – as he has just done in Parliament – then why am I hearing that four senior staff have resigned in the last seven days. Watch this space … #ndis #auspol

  11. Pegasus says:
    Thursday, July 4, 2019 at 3:13 pm

    Adam Bandt on Twitter

    For the $158b cost of the tax cuts that LNP & ALP just voted for, we could build houses for every homeless person in Australia, get dental into Medicare and still have money left over.

    We should use public money to reduce inequality, not for tax cuts for millionaires.

    Didn’t Adam vote with the Government against a Labor amendment which would have split the Bill and allowed the voting down of tax cuts for those millionaires?

  12. ‘Pegasus says:
    Thursday, July 4, 2019 at 3:13 pm

    Adam Bandt on Twitter’

    ‘Bandt on Twitter’ says it all.

    Bandt is not much more than a self-righteous tax skiver and bum warmer. His total positive substantive contribution after years and years on the taxpayer’s tit, at a couple of hundred thousand a year, is zip.
    He is a wealthy inner urban latte sipping elite…
    … and is eerily reminiscent of when the Moscow revolutionaries went out into peasant land where they were handled rudely for their pseudo thought leadership posturing.
    Bandt should tweet about something real: like why 27 years is not enough to demonstrate dismal electoral failure by the Greens.
    Bandt is selling but no-one much is buying.

  13. ”We should use public money to reduce inequality, not for tax cuts for millionaires.”
    Thus speaks the commie green, who thinks that all money is public money. What a moron. Word cannot express the contempt we should have for cretins like this green tosser. They make PHON look like angels. But just as lefties never tell us that the commies were far worse villains than the nazis, they’ll crawl over broken glass not to challenge the evil cant of the commie greens.

  14. The Greens just got some convincing consumer feedback from 90% of the electorate.
    Thus fortified, and with their morals unsullied by sordid reality, they have launched their customary anti-Labor jihad.
    Life inside the Greens bubble must be such fun! The Greens: the Party that launched a thousand announcements, ten thousand Labor denunciations, a million tweets, and a dozen half-arsed hipsters into a Peter Pan existence in the House and the Senate: neverland meet thought leadership.

  15. It is good to see that Peg has moved from cut and paste right along to… some more cut and paste.
    One damn zinger after another.
    …along with some pathetic cutting pastiches of Greens thought leadership.

  16. House distribution of preferences are now available.
    In Hunter the minors and greens did little to change the order of the last 3.
    ON 26919
    Nat 28856
    Fitzgibbon 46251

    ON preferences then split 70:30 to the Nat
    No indication of how Nat preferences would have split if they had finished 3rd

  17. The Guardian

    There’s been a bit of excitement over Cory Bernardi telling the ABC that “that is a safe bet” in response to a question about him being unlikely to see out his Senate term.

    Bernardi has said repeatedly he would leave the Senate when he is 50. He turns 50 a the end of the year.

    He also confirmed what we reported yesterday – that his senate spot would be likely to go to the Liberals. That’s because he was elected as a Liberal. When he steps down, it goes back to them. The SA parliament technically sends the senator, but it’s only been Joh Bjelke-Petersen who has ignored the will of the party. Shocking, I know.

  18. Rococo Liberal @ #1316 Thursday, July 4th, 2019 – 3:25 pm

    ”We should use public money to reduce inequality, not for tax cuts for millionaires.”
    Thus speaks the commie green, who thinks that all money is public money. What a moron. Word cannot express the contempt we should have for cretins like this green tosser. They make PHON look like angels. But just as lefties never tell us that the commies were far worse villains than the nazis, they’ll crawl over broken glass not to challenge the evil cant of the commie greens.

    How were the ‘commies’ worse than the ‘nazi’s’ ..?

  19. Pegasus @ #1322 Thursday, July 4th, 2019 – 3:32 pm

    The Guardian

    There’s been a bit of excitement over Cory Bernardi telling the ABC that “that is a safe bet” in response to a question about him being unlikely to see out his Senate term.

    Bernardi has said repeatedly he would leave the Senate when he is 50. He turns 50 a the end of the year.

    He also confirmed what we reported yesterday – that his senate spot would be likely to go to the Liberals. That’s because he was elected as a Liberal. When he steps down, it goes back to them. The SA parliament technically sends the senator, but it’s only been Joh Bjelke-Petersen who has ignored the will of the party. Shocking, I know.

    I assume there’s been a deal struck between Bernardi, Downer and the Liberals.

    What appointment awaits dear Cory I wonder… ?

  20. Rex Douglas says: Thursday, July 4, 2019 at 3:34 pm

    How were the ‘commies’ worse than the ‘nazi’s’ ..?

    *****************************************************

    Katyn ?

  21. Progressive income taxation is an important means of reducing inequality of income and wealth. Any changes that make the tax system less progressive must be opposed. The concept of “a fair go” is drained of meaning if the LNP’s inequality-boosting tax changes go ahead.

  22. Rex Douglas says:
    Thursday, July 4, 2019 at 3:37 pm

    I assume there’s been a deal struck between Bernardi, Downer and the Liberals.

    What appointment awaits dear Cory I wonder… ?

    Why would any deal be needed?

  23. “But just as lefties never tell us that the commies were far worse villains than the nazis,”

    Not that this is a competition, but it’s hard to top the Holocaust. I’m going to stick my neck out here: I reckon Adolf Hitler was the worst villain in modern history. I know some Alt-Right folks might find this statement controversial, but there you have it.

  24. Pegasus @ 3:32 pm

    … it’s only been Joh Bjelke-Petersen who has ignored the will of the party.

    In fact, Bjelke-Petersen was only copying NSW premier Tom Lewis, who appointed Cleaver Bunton to the Senate in February 1975. Albert Field was appointed in September 1975.

  25. Setka

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2019/07/04/john-setka-alp-court/

    Union leader John Setka has commenced court action to quash Anthony Albanese’s attempt to expel him from the Labor Party, claiming it is illegal.

    Mr Setka claims the Labor leader’s public statements confirming he will be expelled denied him due process and natural justice. He says they pre-judged the outcome of the expulsion process.

    The New Daily has confirmed the CFMMEU leader issued legal proceedings in the Victorian Supreme Court on Thursday.

    If granted, the interlocutory injunction would legally prohibit the ALP national executive from granting Mr Albanese’s request to expel Mr Setka as planned on July 15.

    Mr Setka is represented by lawyers from Doogue + George. He was previously represented by his lawyer wife’s former firm, Gordon Legal.

    “It means before the matter is heard before the Supreme Court, the ALP national executive can’t do anything,” a Labor source said.

    The legal action is another blow to Mr Albanese’s timetable to expel Mr Sekta. He has already granted the union leader a 10-day extension to his plan to expel Mr Setka on July 5.

  26. Barney in Makassar @ #1328 Thursday, July 4th, 2019 – 3:41 pm

    Rex Douglas says:
    Thursday, July 4, 2019 at 3:37 pm

    I assume there’s been a deal struck between Bernardi, Downer and the Liberals.

    What appointment awaits dear Cory I wonder… ?

    Why would any deal be needed?

    Yes, of course, Cory is leaving purely out of the goodness of his heart…

  27. Thus speaks the commie green, who thinks that all money is public money.

    Public money is public money. You still have oodles of private money (although I am sure Nicho might have a take on this). Public money has been used for decades (here, at this level, for about 80 years) to very successfully even out the bumps and harshness of the market. More than that, it has enhanced the market with such crucial institutions of safety nets and equal opportunity. Markets thrive in a meritocracy – and you wont get that in laissez fairy land. Wise use of public moneys helps business in many other ways too – with targeted infrastructure they wouldn’t build in a dog eat dog society. And then there is the benefit of collectively using central funds in things like health care – where it is far more efficiently used (yes, more efficiently – governments can be more efficient than the market) as well as delivering great outcomes across the board.

    Tax is not just there for feel good socialist Utopians. It has utility; real world benefits that not only help create a cohesive society but increase the prosperity of both the poor and the rich.

  28. It’s hard to remain calm.

    @AnodyneParadigm
    1m1 minute ago

    Morrison: No plans to increase Newstart, despite the fact, on top of their generous remuneration, policians pocket more per night to live it up in Canberra…and service investment property loans #auspol

  29. adrian says:
    Thursday, July 4, 2019 at 12:44 pm
    Van Badham

    @vanbadham

    I guess my point about Labor’s support of this appalling, neoliberal tax-cut non-plan is that they’ve taken a base whose hearts are broken by the – actually, very close – election defeat, and decided to extinguish their faith and hope at literally the first opportunity. #auspol

    This is absolute fucking rubbish. Labor do not get to determine the contents of legislation.

    The Liberals and the Greens will do their utmost to wedge Labor. Van Badham has taken up arms for the LNP.

  30. Oakeshott Country @ #1321 Thursday, July 4th, 2019 – 3:31 pm

    House distribution of preferences are now available.
    In Hunter the minors and greens did little to change the order of the last 3.
    ON 26919
    Nat 28856
    Fitzgibbon 46251

    ON preferences then split 70:30 to the Nat
    No indication of how Nat preferences would have split if they had finished 3rd

    OC I looked at the Guardian’s polling booth yesterday and was stunned to see that the West Wallsend booth in Hunter was -23.9% for Fitzgibbon. No wonder he has ants in his pants.

  31. Rex Douglas says:
    Thursday, July 4, 2019 at 3:49 pm

    Barney in Makassar @ #1328 Thursday, July 4th, 2019 – 3:41 pm

    Rex Douglas says:
    Thursday, July 4, 2019 at 3:37 pm

    I assume there’s been a deal struck between Bernardi, Downer and the Liberals.

    What appointment awaits dear Cory I wonder… ?

    Why would any deal be needed?

    Yes, of course, Cory is leaving purely out of the goodness of his heart…

    What difference would it make if he stayed?

    He always votes with the Government on their legislation and has been a prime supporter with other assistance like filibustering.

  32. When Van Badham has gone down on the Greens she has been the bees knees
    around here for a few Laborites.

    She has flip flopped between being a Labor supporter and a Greens supporter for some time.

    Her head must be spinning – Labor, Greens, Labor, now who knows

  33. “Didn’t Adam vote with the Government against a Labor amendment which would have split the Bill and allowed the voting down of tax cuts for those millionaires?”

    Yes. For the specific purpose of then being in a position to bunch Labor in with the Liberals over these tax cuts. Politics, you see. Yet Peggy feels a kindred spirit with these grubs. Says it all, doesn’t it.

    That said, I still reckon Rex was right: labor should have abstained from the final vote.

  34. Andrew_Earlwood @ #1345 Thursday, July 4th, 2019 – 4:04 pm

    “Didn’t Adam vote with the Government against a Labor amendment which would have split the Bill and allowed the voting down of tax cuts for those millionaires?”

    Yes. For the specific purpose of then being in a position to bunch Labor in with the Liberals over these tax cuts. Politics, you see. Yet Peggy feels a kindred spirit with these grubs. Says it all, doesn’t it.

    That said, I still reckon Rex was right: labor should have abstained from the final vote.

    What do you mean ‘grubs’.

    What’s so bad about voting against both Lib and Lab tax cut versions, as Bandt did ..?

    Society needs that revenue to sustain and enhance social programs and create green jobs.

  35. Pegasus @ #1343 Thursday, July 4th, 2019 – 4:02 pm

    When Van Badham has gone down on the Greens she has been the bees knees
    around here for a few Laborites.

    She has flip flopped between being a Labor supporter and a Greens supporter for some time.

    Her head must be spinning – Labor, Greens, Labor, now who knows

    Why does one have to have a team ..?

  36. Diogenes says:

    Thursday, July 4, 2019 at 4:02 pm

    Communists killed a lot more people than the Nazis but you can’t go past Nazi Germany as an evil state.

    ******************************************************

    A lot more people died under Stalin and Mao – but it was more due to things like famine and political decisions rather than the dedicated planned murder of concentration camp/Einsatzgruppen etc of the Nazi’s …..

    ( According to the authoritative “Black Book of Communism,” an estimated 65 million Chinese died as a result of Mao’s repeated, merciless attempts to create a new “socialist” China. Anyone who got in his way was done away with — by execution, imprisonment or forced famine. )

    https://www.heritage.org/asia/commentary/the-legacy-mao-zedong-mass-murder

  37. Victorian National Parks Association campaign on RFAs and logging in Victoria:

    Stop another 20 years of logging in Victoria

    https://vnpa.org.au/stop-another-20-years-of-logging-in-victoria/

    The Regional Forest Agreements (RFAs) are twenty-year-long agreements between the Victorian and Commonwealth Governments and provide special treatment to the native forest industry.
    :::
    Two decades on, the state and federal governments are attempting to renew the agreement to lock in a further 20 years of logging for Victoria – still exempt from national environmental protection laws.

    None of the RFAs have met their objectives. Numbers of forest-dependent species listed as threatened continue to rise, and forest health is declining and will only get worse under climate change. Even the native forest industry is stagnating and in decline as their main resource runs out or is reduced through landscape-scale fire …
    :::
    The Victorian and Commonwealth governments are now seeking community input to inform the ‘modernisation’ of the five RFAs.

    An independent consultation paper has been produced here which they are inviting comment on.

    This independent consultation paper paints a rosy picture of the success of RFAs in Victoria, but key elements of it are unfounded and misleading.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *