Essential Research leadership polling

A belated account of the first set of post-election leadership ratings, recording a victory bounce for Scott Morrison and a tentative debut for Anthony Albanese.

Contrary to expectations it might put its head above the parapet with today’s resumption of parliament, there is still no sign of Newspoll – or indeed any other polling series, at least so far as voting intention is concerned. Essential Research, however, is maintaining its regular polling schedule, but so far it’s been attitudinal polling only. The latest set of results was published in The Guardian on Friday, and it encompasses Essential’s leadership ratings series, which I relate here on a better-late-than-never basis. Featured are the first published ratings for Anthony Albanese, of 35% approval and 25% disapproval, compared with 38% and 44% in the pollster’s final pre-election reading for Bill Shorten.

To put this into some sort of perspective, the following table (click on image to enlarge) provides comparison with Newspoll’s debut results for opposition leaders over the past three decades. The only thing it would seem safe to conclude from this is that Albanese’s numbers aren’t terribly extraordinary one way or the other.

Scott Morrison’s post-election bounce lifts him five points on approval to 48%, with disapproval down three to 36%, and he leads Albanese 43-25 on preferred prime minister, compared with 39-32 for Shorten’s late result. Also featured are questions on tax cuts (with broadly negative responses to the government policy, albeit that some of the question framing is a little slanted for mine), trust in various media outlets (results near-identical to those from last October, in spite of everything), and various indigenous issues (including a finding that 57% would vote yes in a constitutional recognition referendum, compared with 34% for no). The poll was conducted June 19 to June 23 from an online sample of 1079.

Elsewhere in poll-dom:

• Australian Market and Social Research Organisations has established an advisory board and panel for its inquiry into the pollster failure, encompassing an impressive roll call of academics, journalists and statisticians. Ipsos would appear to be the only major Australian polling concern that’s actually a member of AMSRO, but the organisation has “invited a publisher representative from each of Nine Entertainment (Sydney Morning Herald/The Age) and NewsCorp to join the advisory board”.

• A number of efforts have now been made to reverse-engineer a polling trend measure for the last term, using the actual results from 2016 and 2019 as anchoring points. The effort of Simon Jackman and Luke Mansillo at the University of Sydney was noted here last week. Mark the Ballot offers three models – one anchored to the 2016 result, which lands low for the Coalition in 2019, but still higher than what the polls were saying); one anchored to the 2019 result, designed to land on the mark for 2019, but resulting in a high reading for the Coalition in 2016; and, most instructively, one anchored to both, which is designed to land on the mark at both elections. Kevin Bonham offers various approaches that involve polling going off the rails immediately or gradually after the leadership change, during the election campaign, or combinations thereof.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,688 comments on “Essential Research leadership polling”

  1. Greens senator Larissa Waters via Twitter

    The entire Senate chamber, bar the Greens, just voted to support #Adani and the opening of the Galilee Basin. At least we know what we’be long suspected: they’re all on the take from coal company donations. Real jobs are in renewables. This parly is going to be rough.

    and

    And it gets worse – now every single other Senator bar the Greens is voting down my amendments to prioritise clean energy ahead of dirty gas. See aforementioned fossil fuel donation addiction… These gas giants don’t even pay royalties or proper tax!

  2. It looks like Janet Rice keeps her spot because to turf her out of her position with The Greens in the Senate would be perceived by many in the party as LGBTQI+ discrimination.

  3. Pegasus @ #1244 Thursday, July 4th, 2019 – 1:18 pm

    Greens senator Larissa Waters via Twitter

    The entire Senate chamber, bar the Greens, just voted to support #Adani and the opening of the Galilee Basin. At least we know what we’be long suspected: they’re all on the take from coal company donations. Real jobs are in renewables. This parly is going to be rough.

    and

    And it gets worse – now every single other Senator bar the Greens is voting down my amendments to prioritise clean energy ahead of dirty gas. See aforementioned fossil fuel donation addiction… These gas giants don’t even pay royalties or proper tax!

    That’s because every other Senator sees the Adani issue as Greens Performance Art politics.

  4. Ms Lambie has twigged and is doing a Harradine and we can safely assume that Ms Lambie will be a senator for sale for the next quarter of a century.
    The only live question at any one time will be her price.
    We know from Ms Lambie’s previous policy discussions that she is, in most domains, as thick as a plank. This should delight the Greens who will know they are intellectually superior to Ms Lambie. They know that along with the other great unwashed members of the electorate, sooner or later superior thought leadership from the Greens will teach her the error of her ways.
    Pending the Greens final victory, the Coalition is rubbing its hands. They know that she is not only thick but cheap.

  5. You’d think yesterday’s proceedings with all those speeches about the old Labor party during it’s glory days would have stirred the loins of the current excuse for an ALP.
    Methinks they’re all loinless.

  6. C@tmomma @ #1247 Thursday, July 4th, 2019 – 1:21 pm

    Pegasus @ #1244 Thursday, July 4th, 2019 – 1:18 pm

    Greens senator Larissa Waters via Twitter

    The entire Senate chamber, bar the Greens, just voted to support #Adani and the opening of the Galilee Basin. At least we know what we’be long suspected: they’re all on the take from coal company donations. Real jobs are in renewables. This parly is going to be rough.

    and

    And it gets worse – now every single other Senator bar the Greens is voting down my amendments to prioritise clean energy ahead of dirty gas. See aforementioned fossil fuel donation addiction… These gas giants don’t even pay royalties or proper tax!

    That’s because every other Senator sees the Adani issue as Greens Performance Art politics.

    Do you support more coal mining/export/burning ?

  7. zoomster @ #1230 Thursday, July 4th, 2019 – 12:57 pm

    ‘I believe that the next non-conservative prime minister is not in parliament yet – and has possibly not been BORN.’

    Every time Labor loses an election this gets trotted out. I’ve seen it said several times since 1996, at both State and Federal level.

    That’s fine, a 3 year old would do a better job than Morrison.

  8. Waleed Aly

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/why-is-labor-even-thinking-about-stage-three-tax-cuts-20190704-p5241m.html

    But it’s a bit like saying Australia will remain a democracy after some new security legislation is passed: it sets an incredibly low bar. The real question here is whether it makes our tax system significantly less progressive than it is now. And that seems emphatically to be the case.
    :::
    Precisely what business does Labor have waving something like that through? The Coalition, sure. … But Labor? How is such a regressive change to income tax consistent with its world view?
    :::
    I cannot escape the feeling Labor’s indecisiveness draws exactly the wrong conclusion from the election, and endangers it in potentially long-term ways.
    :::
    Already you can see Labor’s response in its ready embrace of the language of aspiration, indeed in the case of shadow treasurer Jim Chalmers, his assertive attempt to reclaim it as a central Labor value.
    :::
    Because if Labor’s suddenly for increasing the relative burden on the less wealthy and relieving it on the top 20 per cent, exactly what story is it trying to tell us now?

  9. BK says:
    Thursday, July 4, 2019 at 11:40 am
    Melissa Price acknowledged that approval of a uranium mine in Western Australia could lead to the extinction of up to 12 native species but went ahead with the decision anyway.

    The Liberals use the environment to campaign against Labor. The implicit message here is the Liberals will do whatever it takes to create jobs. The more conspicuous the destruction the more they like it.

  10. Well, you have to hand it to the Greens.
    27 years of thought leadership and they have not been able to stop Adani.
    What is wrong with brilliant communicators like Rice?
    And they did a convoy as well as the thought leadership!
    Looking ahead to the next 27 years of the Greens failing to galvanize the Australian voting public we have at least another three decades of Greens’ successes.
    It is going to be a Greens gas.

  11. Do you support more coal mining/export/burning ?

    1. Depends on the type of Coal.

    2. Depends whether a vote on the Adani project, in particular, will affect other mines in the NSW Hunter Valley. If it does, then it may be a zero sum game. Or, conversely, because the quality of the coal in the Gallilee Basin is much poorer than that in the Hunter Valley it may very well not go ahead anyway.

    Also, considering the effect Global Warming is having on India, probably Bangladesh as well, which is where Adani wants to sell his coal, I think pure economics will likely kill it in the end.

    3. Larissa Waters just wants to keep wearing her stupid earrings and I’m totally against that. 🙂

    4. The Adani issue is just niche, boutique symbolism. Maybe if The Greens put some effort into actually developing a sensible policy approach to the issue then I might change my mind about it.

  12. Unemployment in WA is well above 5.2%. In the area where I live and work, the rate would be at least double that and under-employment would be at least the same again.

    Jobs are being shed every day in Perth.

  13. Thought leadership is a sort of mysterious political gaseous osmosis by which the Greens’ think of something brilliant and it leaks into the brains of the general public – generally against their will.

    The basic problem for the Greens is that the Australian public consists of 90% stupid who will never vote for the destruction of the ADF, the immediate removal of all GMOs from the environment, the closing of Olympic Dam, or any of the other ratbag policies from the Greens’ fringe ‘thought leaders’.

  14. The Greens successfully used Adani to disable Labor. They have done very well. They can wear their earrings the way soldiers wear their medals. They commemorate their campaigns.

    The Bob Brown mine will be built.

  15. Boerwar @ #1265 Thursday, July 4th, 2019 – 1:34 pm

    Thought leadership is a sort of mysterious political gaseous osmosis by which the Greens’ think of something brilliant and it leaks into the brains of the general public – generally against their will.

    The basic problem for the Greens is that the Australian public consists of 90% stupid who will never vote for the destruction of the ADF, the immediate removal of all GMOs from the environment, the closing of Olympic Dam, or any of the other ratbag policies from the Greens’ fringe ‘thought leaders’.

    We need more Lib-Lab !

  16. Sen Penny Wong
    Retail, hospitality and pharmacy workers will lose more from Scott Morrison’s refusal to stop their penalty rate cuts than they will gain from tax cuts. Penalty rates are not a luxury, they are rightly earned and should be protected.

  17. lizzie @ #1268 Thursday, July 4th, 2019 – 1:36 pm

    Sen Penny Wong
    Retail, hospitality and pharmacy workers will lose more from Scott Morrison’s refusal to stop their penalty rate cuts than they will gain from tax cuts. Penalty rates are not a luxury, they are rightly earned and should be protected.

    Let’s see how Penny votes on the tax cuts.

  18. “Under the new tax rates, lawyers and doctors will have the same marginal tax rates as janitors. ”
    I thought the top marginal tax rate will stay at 45% starting at $200K.

  19. Boerwar @ #1265 Thursday, July 4th, 2019 – 1:34 pm

    Thought leadership is a sort of mysterious political gaseous osmosis by which the Greens’ think of something brilliant and it leaks into the brains of the general public – generally against their will.

    The basic problem for the Greens is that the Australian public consists of 90% stupid who will never vote for the destruction of the ADF, the immediate removal of all GMOs from the environment, the closing of Olympic Dam, or any of the other ratbag policies from the Greens’ fringe ‘thought leaders’.

    Bring on those $100B subs and lets all party with Melissa Price and Richard Marles !!

  20. If this is any precedent, Penny voted to enshire marriage as between a man and a woman only when it came to a vote in 2004.
    She is 51 years old and judging by the state of affairs probably wouldn’t get another chance to serve as a government minister if she continues, even if SA Labor continues to give her a high list ranking until she is limited by old age.

  21. briefly @ #1266 Thursday, July 4th, 2019 – 1:36 pm

    The Greens successfully used Adani to disable Labor. They have done very well. They can wear their earrings the way soldiers wear their medals. They commemorate their campaigns.

    The Bob Brown mine will be built.

    Labor won on Adani, briefly. Joel Fitzgibbon is thrilled with this result. Well done Joel and Labor.

  22. “Under the new tax rates, lawyers and doctors will have the same marginal tax rates as janitors. ”
    I thought the top marginal tax rate will stay at 45% starting at $200K.

    – This shows your lack of understanding of how society works.
    A taxable income of $200K is actually beyond the majority of lawyers. A large proportion of doctors also earn less than $200K, after “allowable expenses” (read: insurance and liability) are deducted and appopriate “elaboration and manipulation” is applied to their tax returns. Just because you are a lawyer or a doctor does not make you rich.

  23. Ron Jones ❄@RBJRON
    30m30 minutes ago

    Remember the agreement that was reached to change the asset test if pensioners got a $10 a week increase in their pensions? The LNP agreed and then cut out the fuel subsidies that compensated people on pensions and welfare. They are self serving arseholes

  24. There is no light on the hill. Only a nominal porcelain lighthouse model.

    I will continue to live in Oz while it remains a tolerable and affordable place to live with my meagre middling-100k income. If it gets intolerable, I will move to New Zealand. Hopefully the government will give enough notice if this is no longer allowed.

  25. Anyway good news is I am coming up to the golden anniversary of my conception day – moon landing – as my father rather indiscreetly revealed at my wedding.

  26. All Ords cracks 6800 for the first time since 2007
    I guess the thought is that the tax cuts will be a significant stimulus – can’t see it myself
    All Ords is still 1% below the Pre GFC peak while the Dow regained all loses by 2013 and is now 80% higher

  27. The Greens successfully used Adani to disable Labor.

    I don’t think the Greens forced Shorten to straddle the fence on that issue. He did that on his own. Tried too hard to appeal to all sides on the coal/climate issue and some others, and only managed to end up sacrificing a bit of his appeal with everybody.

    See also: left-wing politicians in a lot of other places, who are being similarly successful with this same strategy.

    Until the left works out what it actually stands for the right will continue winning. What they stand for may be abhorrent, but they’re at least willing to own it.

  28. Cameron C. @ #1282 Thursday, July 4th, 2019 – 1:52 pm

    There is no light on the hill. Only a nominal porcelain lighthouse model.

    I will continue to live in Oz while it remains a tolerable and affordable place to live with my meagre middling-100k income. If it gets intolerable, I will move to New Zealand. Hopefully the government will give enough notice if this is no longer allowed.

    It’s quite clear Australia has irreversibly changed culturally/socially since the days of my youth.

    We are less tolerant, more divided, less caring as a society.

  29. Ken on Twitter
    Jackie Lambi–how thick is she?? Morrison was going to arrange that $150 Pass on Housing Debt anyway! He made an Agreement with Tasmania’s National weeks ago!

    Correction: Answer was NO from Tassie Senator.

  30. Cameron C. @ #1278 Thursday, July 4th, 2019 – 1:52 pm

    There is no light on the hill. Only a nominal porcelain lighthouse model.

    I will continue to live in Oz while it remains a tolerable and affordable place to live with my meagre middling-100k income. If it gets intolerable, I will move to New Zealand. Hopefully the government will give enough notice if this is no longer allowed.

    Don’t go too soon, the Right are starting to fight back against Jacinda Ardern and getting their line and length via the Guns issue:

    CHRISTCHURCH, New Zealand — It was one of the defining moments as New Zealand grieved after a pair of deadly mosque attacks: a near-unanimous parliamentary vote in April to ban military-style rifles and similar weapons.

    The lawmakers’ move was immediately acclaimed by gun-control advocates worldwide as an example of decisive collective action in a nation unified in horror by the March 15 assaults in Christchurch that left 51 people dead.

    Then the momentum began to slow.

    Growing opposition from New Zealand’s pro-gun groups has complicated efforts to round up the now-banned firearms under a buyback program. Lawsuits are threatened.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/new-zealand-is-trying-to-buy-back-the-assault-style-weapons-it-banned-in-april-its-not-so-easy/2019/06/30/c3e49844-9365-11e9-956a-88c291ab5c38_story.html?utm_term=.8ca0527be9c5

  31. a r

    The problem with fence straddling is that it is odds on both sides end distrusting what you say. Weaselly words sound weaselly to both sides.

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