Essential Research leadership polling

A belated account of the first set of post-election leadership ratings, recording a victory bounce for Scott Morrison and a tentative debut for Anthony Albanese.

Contrary to expectations it might put its head above the parapet with today’s resumption of parliament, there is still no sign of Newspoll – or indeed any other polling series, at least so far as voting intention is concerned. Essential Research, however, is maintaining its regular polling schedule, but so far it’s been attitudinal polling only. The latest set of results was published in The Guardian on Friday, and it encompasses Essential’s leadership ratings series, which I relate here on a better-late-than-never basis. Featured are the first published ratings for Anthony Albanese, of 35% approval and 25% disapproval, compared with 38% and 44% in the pollster’s final pre-election reading for Bill Shorten.

To put this into some sort of perspective, the following table (click on image to enlarge) provides comparison with Newspoll’s debut results for opposition leaders over the past three decades. The only thing it would seem safe to conclude from this is that Albanese’s numbers aren’t terribly extraordinary one way or the other.

Scott Morrison’s post-election bounce lifts him five points on approval to 48%, with disapproval down three to 36%, and he leads Albanese 43-25 on preferred prime minister, compared with 39-32 for Shorten’s late result. Also featured are questions on tax cuts (with broadly negative responses to the government policy, albeit that some of the question framing is a little slanted for mine), trust in various media outlets (results near-identical to those from last October, in spite of everything), and various indigenous issues (including a finding that 57% would vote yes in a constitutional recognition referendum, compared with 34% for no). The poll was conducted June 19 to June 23 from an online sample of 1079.

Elsewhere in poll-dom:

• Australian Market and Social Research Organisations has established an advisory board and panel for its inquiry into the pollster failure, encompassing an impressive roll call of academics, journalists and statisticians. Ipsos would appear to be the only major Australian polling concern that’s actually a member of AMSRO, but the organisation has “invited a publisher representative from each of Nine Entertainment (Sydney Morning Herald/The Age) and NewsCorp to join the advisory board”.

• A number of efforts have now been made to reverse-engineer a polling trend measure for the last term, using the actual results from 2016 and 2019 as anchoring points. The effort of Simon Jackman and Luke Mansillo at the University of Sydney was noted here last week. Mark the Ballot offers three models – one anchored to the 2016 result, which lands low for the Coalition in 2019, but still higher than what the polls were saying); one anchored to the 2019 result, designed to land on the mark for 2019, but resulting in a high reading for the Coalition in 2016; and, most instructively, one anchored to both, which is designed to land on the mark at both elections. Kevin Bonham offers various approaches that involve polling going off the rails immediately or gradually after the leadership change, during the election campaign, or combinations thereof.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,688 comments on “Essential Research leadership polling”

  1. AE

    I appreciate your honesty, but it would be hard to be more cynically pragmatic.

    What does Labor stand for? It stands for its own self interest in gaining power by whatever means it takes.

  2. “lizzie
    Harvey is a turd of the highest order.”

    @BK – astute, and yet … putting aside his sociopathic lack of empathy and compassion, Harvey is (unintentionally) correct. The tragedy of homelessness, along with long term unemployment and underemployment, is that our fellow citizens have been made redundant to the nations economic future. Zombie like, they have no stake in it. Charity won’t change that. In fact mere charity is a smoke screen. A balm to make rich bastards feel a little better about their grasping existence: like Lucien Aye doling out xmas lunch to the poors at Ted Cruz’s Exedus Foundation. Only a well structured series of government programs can actually make a difference.

  3. Card being distributed to service members participating in Trump July 4 with instructions from the Pentagon about what to say—and not to say—when speaking with members of the media

  4. Pegasus @ #1202 Thursday, July 4th, 2019 – 11:52 am

    AE

    I appreciate your honesty, but it would be hard to be more cynically pragmatic.

    What does Labor stand for? It stands for its own self interest in gaining power by whatever means it takes.

    err, I don’t think so. They just got taken down by Scrott the Miracle Worker all by his own self. So Labor wasn’r really trying then.

  5. Amy R, The Guardian

    Fun fact – House of Representatives MPs get paid fortnightly, and senators get paid monthly.

    If you see a senator with their credit card out, it is because they won’t get paid until the end of the month.

    #thoughtsandprayers

  6. Andrew_Earlwood @ #1198 Thursday, July 4th, 2019 – 11:45 am

    “Reading between the lines, or not even, of AE’s latest missive, the #1 Golden Rule Labor must adhere to is never let it be seen to have Labor voting with the Greens. It’s “electoral poison dontcha know”.”

    Correctamundo. In the seats that determine elections.

    Correctamundo.
    As indeed I was.

  7. BK @ #1190 Thursday, July 4th, 2019 – 11:39 am

    lizzie
    Harvey is a turd of the highest order.

    I can’t find it in my heart to disagree with you –
    however
    https://www.reddit.com/r/australia/comments/1px4js/stay_classy_gerry/

    No one is going to comment on how out of context that quote is? Here are a couple of quotes from the article he wrote in response to the sensationalised article that quote is from.

    I said that if you give a million dollars to a charity to help homeless people, you could argue it was going to be wasted.

    What I think is that we should be helping people so they can reach an even greater potential.

    If we do that, those people can put a lot more value back into the community. If we do that, those people can put a lot more value back into the community.

    But importantly, I still give money to homeless people – and all other charities.

    We also rotate what charities we support. We might give money to autistic kids this year and then the Children’s Hospital next year.

    So basically he is saying that handouts to the homeless have a potential to be wasted and that money would be better spent on other charities.

    It’s not a view which I agree with, and by and large I have a dislike for Gerry Harvey, but this is just a hatchet job. Putting an out of context quote from a man reviled by /r/Australia on a pretty black background will get you plenty of upvotes, but it doesn’t really further the discussion. Is money spent on the homeless wasted? Are we discussing that? No, we are just bowing to populism and upvoting a negative picture of someone we all hate.

    He still donates money, he just donates it to charities he finds more deserving. I disagree with his criteria for determining what charities are worthy, I think that is his decision to make.

    ************************************************
    Regardless Mr. Harvey could be a nominee for Arsehole of the Week on a just in case forward projection basis.

    ************************************************
    I am partway through part three of “The Miniaturist” and finding it hard going with the bleakness and sheer horror of the storyline. I give myself a reminder not to cheat by looking at the last page of a book or reading the blurbs about TV or Movies.

  8. Kind of cruel for Morrison to go to the other side of the chamber and shake hands with Shorten. Everyone wants to rub it in Bills face these days. Even Daniel Andrews was dropping a few light jokes at Bills expense after the election on Melbourne radio.

  9. This site is an echo chamber. Everyone wants the tax cut and couldn’t give a stuff about newstart. There are 12 million wage and salary earners vs 740000 on newstart.

    Tax cuts for low to median income earners are defensible given that unemployment, under-employment, precarious employment, and household debt levels are all high. Yes, 5.2 percent unemployment is high – the NAIRU concept used by neoclassical macroeconomists is theoretically unsound and empirically unsupported. We should not tolerate an unemployment rate that is above 2 percent.

    However, it would be better for the ALP to make the case for spending directly on creating jobs for the unemployed, and spending directly on expanding and improving public services and public infrastructure. Both of those measures would produce a bigger economic stimulus than a tax cut. They would also enhance community wellbeing much more significantly than a tax cut.

    The government’s tax cut package is highly inequitable. If the ALP hammered that fact in addition to emphasizing the massive benefits of direct job creation and improvements to public services, they could gain the upper hand in the public’s perception of this debate.

  10. The dispassionate view from the well informed Liberal….


    Cormann is the Liberals best asset. He saved the party when he pushed the button to oust Malcolm & he’s got their major legislation through the senate.”

  11. I am partway through “The Miniaturist” and finding it hard going with the bleakness and sheer horror of the storyline.

    Stick with it. It is SBS, there must be an imminent lesbian scene to give it some cheer.

  12. Cormann is the Liberals best asset. He saved the party when he pushed the button to oust Malcolm & he’s got their major legislation through the senate.”
    ____________________________
    It’s looking like that. The backlash against the coup was pretty limited to Wentworth, some Waringah fallout too, and a swing in seats like Flinders, Kooyong etc. Which was more than made up for in Qld in which Morrison far outperformed MT’s result in 2016. Even if MT had been able to scrape back in, the internal dysfunction would have continued. All in all, Cormann has come out well. 3 year term, majority government with MT, Abbott and many others going, freeing up spots in what would be a pretty contented party room. I even think that Dutton would not do so well in a leadership ballot. His 35 would be half that now I reckon.

  13. nath @ #1210 Thursday, July 4th, 2019 – 12:07 pm

    Kind of cruel for Morrison to go to the other side of the chamber and shake hands with Shorten. Everyone wants to rub it in Bills face these days. Even Daniel Andrews was dropping a few light jokes at Bills expense after the election on Melbourne radio.

    Yes as I said the other day, and somewhat diminished did Bill look…..Scrotty just letting them know he has their measure….and then some.

  14. Yes nath, Bill was defeated at the election. I’m sure he was very sad and bitterly disappointed. That was over 6 weeks ago. Is there a point where you reach schadenfreude overload?

  15. Sorry if already posted. Waleed asks a question many have been asking.
    .
    .
    Why is Labor even thinking about ‘stage three’ tax cuts?

    It seems likely the whole package will eventually pass, probably with the support of the cross bench. That would mean that as far as parliamentary arithmetic goes, Labor’s votes will be irrelevant. But as a matter of Labor’s identity – its very reason for being – it strikes me as decidedly important. So important that I have to confess I cannot understand why Labor is even flirting with the idea of supporting the tax policy’s “stage three”.
    https://outline.com/7gNNnM

  16. Simon² Katich® @ #1215 Thursday, July 4th, 2019 – 12:21 pm

    I am partway through “The Miniaturist” and finding it hard going with the bleakness and sheer horror of the storyline.

    Stick with it. It is SBS, there must be an imminent lesbian scene to give it some cheer.

    Dammit senor. I cannot find the surveillance equipment in my house.
    “I’ve looked everywhere” he said twitching and peering over his shoulder – “they’re out to get me, I just know it – next move is to be taken by aliens”.

    I have, in just the last week started reading the books of Val McDermid and am becoming accustomed to the lesbian descriptions. The books started in 1987 and it is interesting to read about floppy disks and tape recorder input output.

    I must away now to take up a collection for the pauvre ones doing it tough as Senators. 😇

    Pissing down with rain in Newcastle. ☔

  17. Van Badham

    @vanbadham

    I guess my point about Labor’s support of this appalling, neoliberal tax-cut non-plan is that they’ve taken a base whose hearts are broken by the – actually, very close – election defeat, and decided to extinguish their faith and hope at literally the first opportunity. #auspol

  18. On ABC “World Today at Noon” Lambie and Patrick both admitted they have received only verbal promises from the LNP in return for supporting the entire tax cut package.

    One wonders if they are really that stupid or if they have been offered other incentives under the counter (bigger office, more staff, more travel perks?)

  19. Kakuru says:
    Thursday, July 4, 2019 at 12:36 pm

    Yes nath, Bill was defeated at the election. I’m sure he was very sad and bitterly disappointed. That was over 6 weeks ago. Is there a point where you reach schadenfreude overload?
    _________________
    Yes 6 weeks ago and forty years in the planning.

  20. I guess my point about Labor’s support of this appalling, neoliberal tax-cut non-plan is that they’ve taken a base whose hearts are broken by the – actually, very close – election defeat, and decided to extinguish their faith and hope at literally the first opportunity. #auspol

    That’s a bit hyperbolic but still in approximately the right ballpark. Where’s the point of difference/what does Labor want to stand for?

    Promising to hold the big corporates and the wealthy (frequent tax-dodgers both) to account was, like, their thing.

  21. It’s a bit rich for Waleed and Van Badham to be throwing jibes at Labor over the tax cuts.

    What do they have to say about Lambie and the two ex-Xenophons caving in so easily?

  22. citizen @ #1222 Thursday, July 4th, 2019 – 12:45 pm

    On ABC “World Today at Noon” Lambie and Patrick both admitted they have received only verbal promises from the LNP in return for supporting the entire tax cut package.

    One wonders if they are really that stupid or if they have been offered other incentives under the counter (bigger office, more staff, more travel perks?)

    I am plumping for stupidity.

    ⚡⚡⚡⚡⚡⚡⚡⚡⚡⚡⚡⚡⚡⚡⚡⚡⚡

    A verbal contract isn’t worth the paper it’s written on. Attributed to Samuel Goldwyn, this quote is actually a misreporting of an actual quote praising the trustworthiness of a colleague: “His verbal contract is worth more than the paper it’s written on”.

  23. I wonder if anyone from the ALP has actually pointed out to the assembled press gallery shills who have pronounced this a decisive, stunning etc etc election result, that it was actually pretty close, as in a one seat majority.

    Shouldn’t be a difficult point to make, unless you are continually on the defensive that is…

  24. What do they have to say about Lambie and the two ex-Xenophons caving in so easily?

    “Labor undermined Lambie’s and CA’s negotiating position by making their votes irrelevant”, probably.

  25. Absolutely appalling from Centre Alliance and Lambie. This is a fundamental re-alignment of Australia’s tax policy which benefits only a tiny minority of the country – precisely the ones that don’t need it. Those that are less well off will be the ones who pay.

    Politically, it may not be a bad move as some people think. It will lock in the votes of “doctor’s wives” in newly marginal Coalition seats like Higgins in Melbourne, making them unreachable for Labor for the time being.

    I believe that the next non-conservative prime minister is not in parliament yet – and has possibly not been BORN. I say “next non-conservative” not “next Labor” because the Labor Party in its present form and incompetence may simply wither away.

  26. ‘I believe that the next non-conservative prime minister is not in parliament yet – and has possibly not been BORN.’

    Every time Labor loses an election this gets trotted out. I’ve seen it said several times since 1996, at both State and Federal level.

  27. I forgot to mention that $200,000 p.a. is not an “aspirational” income that most people can aspire to. Under the new tax rates, lawyers and doctors will have the same marginal tax rates as janitors. Two surgeons who are married with a child will effectively be able to send him/her to an exclusive private school ABSOLUTELY FREE. Meanwhile, mobility amongst the lower deciles of income remains the lowest.

    Don’t think that’s fair? The average person in the electorate (Australia or elsewhere) is incapable of rational analysis and is extremely easily led by scare campaigns. There is a REASON why democracy wouldn’t work in China. And if you’re Gina Rinehart or her relations, it’s PERFECTLY FAIR.

  28. citizen @ #1219 Thursday, July 4th, 2019 – 12:49 pm

    It’s a bit rich for Waleed and Van Badham to be throwing jibes at Labor over the tax cuts.

    What do they have to say about Lambie and the two ex-Xenophons caving in so easily?

    For lefties like Waleed and VB, the reality of the catastrophic political consequences of the Shorten/Bowen 6 yrs of ineptitude is starting to hit.

    The Shorten/Bowen boosters really need to start looking at themselves for someone to blame.

  29. 27 years of Greens thought leadership and environmental destruction is absolutely rampant.
    I know. I know. I know.
    It is Shorten’s fault and Labor’s fault.
    You know that makes sense.
    Nothing to do with the Greens or the Liberals or the Nationals or the UAP or the PHON.
    Nothing at all.

  30. Boerwar @ #1227 Thursday, July 4th, 2019 – 1:00 pm

    27 years of Greens thought leadership and environmental destruction is absolutely rampant.
    I know. I know. I know.
    It is Shorten’s fault and Labor’s fault.
    You know that makes sense.
    Nothing to do with the Greens or the Liberals or the Nationals or the UAP or the PHON.
    Nothing at all.

    How is it the Greens fault that Labor fell into line with Govt time and time again… ?

  31. citizen

    What do they have to say about Lambie and the two ex-Xenophons caving in so easily?

    Apart from the whataboutery such cave ins by those two are what you would expect of the blighters.

  32. Don’t think that’s fair? The average person in the electorate (Australia or elsewhere) is incapable of rational analysis and is extremely easily led by scare campaigns.

    Scare campaigns and fantasy-based thinking along the lines of “one day, that surgeon will be me!”. The thing nobody ever mentions about aspiration is that at least 90% of aspirants fail.

  33. Well, honestly, from Lambie this is no surprise. She ostensibly represents the “battlers” of her treasured island but she probably has less aptitude to do her job properly than even Pauline Hanson.
    From Centre Alliance, this is deeply disappointing for them to support such a regressive change that is nothing “centrist” about it. It fundamentally changes society in this country.

  34. Amy R in The Guardian:

    The MP who told us House MPs were paid fortnightly instead of monthly may not actually need to check their bank account (probably should have expected that) because apparently there are a bunch of House MPs out there who are also paid monthly.

    All I know is that they earn a lot more than me. And that for some of them don’t know when they get paid, but I guess the paycheck to paycheck lifestyle isn’t much of a thing for the 1%

  35. So, now that we have established beyond doubt that everything bad in Australia is Labor’s fault, what is Labor going to do about it?

  36. Kakuru @ #1171 Thursday, July 4th, 2019 – 11:25 am

    “Who’s up for starting a church? Preferably involving sex, drugs, thrash metal, demonic themes, the burning of wicker men, blood sacrifice and the worship of black cats. And tax breaks. #ReligiousFreedom”

    I’m in! Except for the black cats. I’m not a cat person.

    Oi! You there! Black cats are de rigeur! 😆

  37. Peg
    I bet the Greens senators know exactly when their paydays are because, while spending most of their time whinging about poverty and exercising thought leadership on behalf of the homelessness, they would also have to count their pennies.

  38. Greens senator Janet Rice via Twitter:

    Labor just voted in @AuSenate for a Nats motion to ‘support the development of the Carmichael mine project & the opening of the Galilee Basin.’ Without even a weasly sitting on the fence statement. Climate emergency anyone? #StopAdani #LaborWhyDoYouEvenExist? #auspol #greens

  39. Of course the Greens did not behave like Lambie when THEY held the Senate BOP.
    They exercised thought leadership and it was all good. Except the bad bits which were always Labor’s fault.

  40. The Guardian

    I’m told that the Senate vote on Kristina Keneally’s press freedom vote came down to this:

    Ayes – Labor, Centre Alliance, the Greens.

    Noes – Coalition, Cory Bernardi, Jacqui Lambie.

    One Nation abstained.

  41. I wonder what BK and SK are thinking about their Local Member, Rebekha Sharkie, and her party, voting for the whole suite of tax cuts?

  42. ‘Pegasus says:
    Thursday, July 4, 2019 at 1:13 pm

    Greens senator Janet Rice via Twitter:’

    Uh huh. Remind me. Who is the Government and who has the power?
    Perhaps you could remind the totally unremarkable Ms Rice that it might just give her a whisker of credibility should she decide, for once in her puny and pathetic political life of non-achievement, to attack the Coalition.
    27 years down and…. how many to go?

  43. Labor just voted with the Tories to open up the Galilee Basin to mining.

    Tens of jobs will be created, and none of the handful of people who’ll end up with these jobs will vote for Labor and neither will a majority of people who live in the surrounding electorates. RESULT!!!!!

    Richard di Natale is to blame and has questions to answer.

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