Foreign affairs and Senate preferences

A comprehensive new survey on attitudes to foreign affairs, and deeper-than-ever dive into Senate voting and the preference question.

We’re still yet to have a new poll of federal voting intention after the election, for whatever that may still be worth, but I would imagine Newspoll will be breaking its drought to mark next week’s resumption of parliament. We do, however, have one of the Lowy Institute’s occasional surveys on attitudes to foreign affairs, the results of which are attractively presented on the organisation’s website.

The headline topic of the poll is Sino-American relations, and the results point to a sharp decline in trust towards China, which a clear majority of respondents rated the “world’s leading economic power”. Even clearer majorities, of around three-quarters, believed China was pursuing regional domination, and that Australia should do more to resist its military activities even if it affected our too-close economic relationship.

However, the poll also finds a further decline in trust in the United States, to add to the body-blow it took when Donald Trump was elected. Of particular interest here are the age breakdowns. Whereas there was little to distinguish the age cohorts in their positive view of the US on Obama’s watch, respondents in their youth and early middle-age now take a substantially more negative view than older ones.

Relatedly, the highly negative and worsening view of Trump personally, while evident across all age cohorts, is most pronounced among the young. This carries through to a head-to-head question on whether respondents should prioritise strong relations with the United States or China, with a majority of those aged 18-30 favouring China, and a large majority of the 60-plus cohort favouring the United States.

Beyond that, the survey offers no end of interesting material:

• Respondents were asked about their satisfaction with democracy – which, one often reads, is in freefall throughout the western world, particularly among the young. However, the Lowy Institute’s yearly tracking of this question going back to 2012 doesn’t show any such thing. If anything, there seems to be a slight trend in favour of the response that “democracy is preferable to any other kind of government”, which is up three on last year at 65%. While the young are less sold on this notion than the old, there has been a solid improving trend among the 18-to-30 cohort, with this year’s result up six on last year’s to 55%, a new high over the course of the series.

• Evaluations were sought on a limited sample of foreign leaders, specifically concerning whether they could be trusted in world affairs. Donald Trump ranked down alongside Vladimir Putin, while Jacinda Ardern recorded near-unanimous acclaim, with 88% expressing either a lot of or some confidence. New Zealand was rated “Australia’s best friend” out of six available options by 59%, up from six since 2017.

• Brexit was rated a bad thing for the United Kingdom by 62%, a bad thing for the European Union by 70%, and a bad thing for the West in general by 58%. The UK’s rating on a “feelings thermometer” fell six points, to 76.

• Concern about climate change maintained an upward trajectory, with 61% favouring action “even if this involves significant costs”. The long-range trend on this question going back to 2006 suggests climate change is less of a problem when Labor are in office.

• Views on immigration were less negative than last year, after a significant hardening of opinion between 2014 and 2018. However, the immigration rate was still held to be too high by 48% of all respondents, and a very large majority of older ones.

The survey was conducted online and by telephone from March 12 to 25 from a sample of 2130.

The second part of today’s lesson relates to Senate preference flows, from which we can obtain no end of information thanks to the Australian Electoral Commission’s publication of the data files containing the preference order for every single ballot paper. By contrast, we’re still waiting on the two-party preference splits the AEC eventually publishes for each party in the House of Representatives. There will be a lot of analysis of this information here over the coming weeks, but for starters I offer the following:

This shows, from left to right, the rate of voters’ adherence to their favoured party’s how-to-vote-card; the rate at which minor party voters’ preference orders favoured Labor over the Coalition or vice-versa, or neither in the event that they did not number either party (“two-party”); and a similar three-way measure that throws the Greens into the mix (“three-party”).

This shows that United Australia Party voters heavily favoured the Coalition over Labor, but not because they were following the party’s how-to-vote cards, a course followed by around 0.1% of the total electorate. One Nation preferences were only slightly less favourable to the Coalition, and even fewer of the party’s voters followed the card. Since One Nation’s preferences in the lower house split almost evenly in 2016, out of the 15 seats where they ran, it seems safe to assume a shift in One Nation preferences accounted for a substantial chunk of the two-party swing to the Coalition. I will calculate Senate preference flows from 2016 for comparison over the next few days.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,777 comments on “Foreign affairs and Senate preferences”

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  1. C@t
    Agree entirely. Christianity, as institutionalised and practised to its full, is an appalling life philosophy. I can understand why people go Christian-lite but it would be far better to take a logical view and become humanist without the juju

  2. lizzie
    Morrison should issue an instruction that no Government minister, or department, or contractor, will have anything to do with the consultancy team Pyne has just joined.
    It stinks to high heaven.
    But what would you expect from a venal bunch of incompetent and corrupt crony capitalists?
    Still, Bucephalus, Rex and Nath are bound to support Daggy Dad and the Fixer.

  3. Maremma Sheepdogs are large, loyal and protective family pets that needs lots of mental stimulation.

    Surely someone on Pollbludger has one of these dogs.

  4. EGT
    But only if you seek foregiveness, which in the case of homosexuals means being celibate. As Izzy said, they will only go to Hell if they don’t accept Jesus (i don’t think his lot are into deathbed confessions/extreme unction)

  5. lizzie says:
    Thursday, June 27, 2019 at 4:34 pm

    My understanding of Maremma aligns with Boerwar’s anecdote – very good at protecting what they are required to protect.

  6. Oh Goodie.. Trump(and the rest of the world) is taking note of Australia’s effective border patrol measures which has literally saved thousands of lives.

    We can all thank Scott Morrison for taking the hard decisions in 2013 and finally stopping the boats… something the lefties and the leftwing media claimed was impossible. Hopefully Trump can implement some tough measures in the U.S and finally stop the deaths trying to illegally cross the border.

  7. SK
    I’ve looked for a while for contemporary suicide rates in gays without success. Do you have a source? Thanks

  8. The basic problem with Christianity, as with most other religions, is the assumption that a deity or deities exist/s. This is inherently problematic. There is no evidence whatsoever that an entity or entities with deistic properties exist/s in the cosmos. In fact, if there were such entities, the cosmos would be very different from the one we experience. The cosmos is godless.

    The Christians premise their beliefs with fabulist speculations. It’s not a good start. No-one who has thought it through can take it seriously.

  9. BK @ #338 Thursday, June 27th, 2019 – 4:41 pm

    KayJay
    I remember the film “Their Finest” very well. It was lovely.

    I have also come across The Miniaturist on SBS.

    I eagerly await further installments in the series.

    It (The Miniaturist) ties in not so nicely with the so called perverted being tied with rocks and drowned. 😈 Relates to burn in hell etc.

    How well we have advanced since those horrible days (1686 or thereabouts).

    IndieWire spoke to author Jessie Burton, who wrote the novel on which the miniseries is based, about Johannes and his tragic fate.

    “One of the reasons I did decide that Johannes was going to be gay was because I read when I was doing my historical research that at that particular time in Amsterdam, there was a real spike in the murder of gay men,” she said. “They were drowning them in the canals or in the sea with huge millstone around their necks as a quite symbolic murder because the water was so important to Holland. It had shored itself up from the sea. It was like, ‘If you’re not going to play your role in building the country, literally by procreating…’ they were not civically minded, and they were undermining the families, the microcosm of the state. I thought that was horrific.”

  10. Dan Gulberry
    says:
    Thursday, June 27, 2019 at 4:39 pm
    If Leviticus and the whole of Mosaic law are irrelevant to Christianity then why is the Old Testament included in the Christian Bible?
    ______________________________
    Zoomster is quite right. In order to prove that he was the promised messiah, Jesus had to fulfil the prophecies of the Old Testament. So when the OT prophecy said that the messiah would enter Jerusalem on a donkey, Jesus could ask his followers to produce an Ass!

  11. Boerwar

    😆 Thanks.

    In my weaker moments I have considered getting a Maremma puppy which might defend my garden against the B—-y huge deer.

  12. lizzie says:
    Thursday, June 27, 2019 at 4:57 pm

    “This is for Bucephalus, who doesn’t believe it’s correct.”

    No, that extract from the New Daily article is different to the tweet.

    Senator Patrick “thinks” the Code has been violated. He presents no actual evidence that it has.

    Exactly what is the sanction against a private individual if the Code has been breached? None. There is no penalty detailed anywhere.

  13. nath @ #361 Thursday, June 27th, 2019 – 3:10 pm

    Dan Gulberry
    says:
    Thursday, June 27, 2019 at 4:39 pm
    If Leviticus and the whole of Mosaic law are irrelevant to Christianity then why is the Old Testament included in the Christian Bible?
    ______________________________
    Zoomster is quite right. In order to prove that he was the promised messiah, Jesus had to fulfil the prophecies of the Old Testament. So when the OT prophecy said that the messiah would enter Jerusalem on a donkey, Jesus could ask his followers to produce an Ass!

    Still doesn’t cover the follow up question.

  14. Of course there was an early Christian sect who wanted to do without the OT and just have the NT. I forget their name but there were many of them in the earliest centuries around the Middle East.

  15. Still doesn’t cover the follow up question.
    ___________________
    I think the simple answer is that certain Christian sects place just as much emphasis on the OT as the NT, if not more so.

  16. SK
    I’ve looked for a while for contemporary suicide rates in gays without success. Do you have a source?

    I read it this week. It was Australian. Not sure of date. I will try to find it.

  17. No I said Izzy wouldn’t be into it – he would think it was devil worship. I suspect he also thinks all Catholics are going to Hell

  18. Dan

    follow up question – because they take the position that the entire Bible is the word of God.

    This is a very simplistic viewpoint, which most Christians reject.

    There are Christians and Christians, and indeed, Christians.

    Me dear old mum – who was a deaconess – brought me up with the simple answer to a literal interpretation of the Bible — there are two versions of Creation in the very first book of Genesis….

  19. DG
    Can you give an example of a fundie invoking Leviticus without also including relevant NT?
    It would be pretty much outside mainstream

  20. Denise Shrivell@deniseshrivell
    2m2 minutes ago

    Ten News reporting that Dutton has quit his family trust – the day before the writs are open. We’re so broken

  21. TheTruth is Right. Wherever we look the exemplary punishment of the itinerant and the displaced, the exiled will be copied. The Liberals have perfected conspicuous hostage-taking and political imprisonment. The exploitation of refugees is to be expected.

  22. lizzie

    Went to an Anglican school, compulsory service every day,divinity classes. Remember with a lol the chaplain lamenting in a divinity class that the main effect of the religious stuff at school was to create even more atheists. The class whole heartedly agreed 🙂

  23. Of course we have our own prophet of doom on PB. Mr Briefly! who presents his ‘arguments’ with all the ‘doubt’ of a desert dwelling zealot delivering nuggets of truth from on high. It’s certainly entertaining stuff.

  24. OC
    It was an Australian writing about a US study from last year.
    https://www.amhf.org.au/new_study_sheds_light_on_lgbt_youth_suicides

    While the study does not measure rates of suicide (only numbers) it does suggest that the rate of suicide in LGBT populations is around two-and-a-half times higher than we’d expect to see compared to non-LGBT populations, based on previous research (cited in the study) that suggest that 4% of the US population belongs to a gender or sexual minorities group.

  25. Boerwar @ #351 Thursday, June 27th, 2019 – 5:01 pm

    lizzie
    Morrison should issue an instruction that no Government minister, or department, or contractor, will have anything to do with the consultancy team Pyne has just joined.
    It stinks to high heaven.
    But what would you expect from a venal bunch of incompetent and corrupt crony capitalists?
    Still, Bucephalus, Rex and Nath are bound to support Daggy Dad and the Fixer.

    Happy to debate you any time on the rights and wrongs of politics, Boerwar.

    Just don’t hide under the doona and pop out occasionally to throw stones, ok. 🙂

  26. For those of a historical bent : – its only 3 more weeks until the 50th anniversary of the Americans faking the moon landing.

    Who would have thought such an audacious film production would result in such long lasting fame.

    Magnificent!

  27. I notice a report that Morrison wants Centrelink recipients to do seasonal fruit picking work.

    Jolly. But the job providers contracted to Centrelink do not ask recipients to do seasonal work because they’re not rewarded for finding people short term work. So, even when farmers asks one of them to provide them with some workers, they basically tell them to F* off.

  28. Thanks SK – the studies I have seen are much the same. We didn’t/can’t measure the suicide rate but we are guessing it’s somewhere around this. It would be an issue that the relevant Coroners could more acurately decide – but i have not seen any data from them

  29. David Marr said on Karvelas this afternoon that if it’s wrong For Rugby Australia to sack Folau for his thoughts then it must be wrong for a Catholic school to sack their chemistry teacher for publicly saying Christianity is a con.
    Is everyone ok with that ?

  30. How’s this for image management:

    Hi Lars,

    I wanted to send you a note to update you on all that’s happening in the game right now, and celebrate some of the positive things in the Rugby community.

    The performance of the Junior Wallabies

    While the Schools and Clubs continue to battle it out in your region, we’ve also achieved some significant results at Super Rugby level and on the International stage.

    Our Junior Wallabies fell just short in their pursuit of a maiden World Championship crown, after going down 24-23 in a pulsating Final in Argentina in the early hours of Sunday morning.

    Coach Jason Gilmore and captain Fraser McReight should be praised for their determined efforts and we’re incredibly proud of their achievements – but I know how desperate they are to go one better next year!

    There is some excellent talent within the squad and Rugby Australia has moved to contract the bulk of the squad to ensure the talent remains in Rugby and sees off the approaches of rival codes.

    Thank you to all the clubs, schools and volunteers who have supported and helped foster our next generation of stars!

    Brumbies in Buenos Aires

    The Junior Wallabies were the first to greet the Brumbies when they landed in Buenos Aires earlier this week. The Canberrans are in red-hot form at the moment and are flying the flag for Australians in Super Rugby.

    A berth in the Super Rugby Final beckons when they take on the Jaguares on Saturday morning from 9am AEST. You can catch it all live on FOX Sports or on Kayo Sports.

    Go the Brums!!

    Women’s Sevens locked in for Tokyo

    Our Women’s Sevens team have booked their spot for Tokyo 2020 following the final World Series event in Biarritz. Our Golden Girls have given opportunities to the next generation of Sevens stars this season and will be aiming to top the medal dais once again in Tokyo next year.

    World Cup countdown for Wallabies

    Michael Cheika will assemble his first Wallabies squad of 2019 next week ahead of their Rugby Championship opener against the Springboks in Johannesburg.

    The Wallabies have three Tests on home soil this year with games against Argentina at Suncorp Stadium on July 27, the All Blacks at a sold-out Optus Stadium in Perth before taking on Samoa at the brand new Bankwest Stadium in Parramatta on Saturday September 7. For all the information, visit https://wallabies.rugby/

    Hamilton to Captain Wallaroos

    Grace Hamilton was named captain of our Wallaroos just last week ahead of their historic two Test Series against Japan next month. Coach Dwayne Nestor has also trimmed his squad to 29 players following a hugely successful second season of Super W.

    The Wallaroos take on Japan at Newcastle’s No.2 Sportsground on July 13 before the second Test at North Sydney Oval on Friday July 19. Then two huge doubleheaders against New Zealand in August! For more information and tickets, head to: https://wallaroos.rugby/

    #GoldBlooded Tour

    Rugby Australia launched the #GoldBlooded Tour earlier this month and it has already made its way from Darwin through to Uluru and down to Tasmania, hosting clinics and events along the way.

    The 100 day tour will stretch as far wide as Rockhampton on the East coast to Bunbury in the West, to give locals in 30 different regional or metro centres a taste of World Cup fever, plus a chance to meet and greet our Classic Wallabies and current Wallabies squad members in various locations.

    Further details on each stop can be found at our website: https://wallabies.rugby/about/tour

    Rugby at community level

    In the community game we’ve recently run our first pilot for the ‘Front Row Passport’ at The Southport School on the Gold Coast – a program that we hope to implement broadly next season as part of the safety initiatives arising from last year’s serious injury review.

    Almost all of the State bodies have reported growth in participation so far in 2019, particularly in young girls and women, which bodes well for the continued growth of the women’s game across both formats and also means that more families will engage with Rugby.

    Celebrating Rugby’s values

    As we all know there are so many positive stories happening in Rugby every single day and with the World Cup on the horizon, we all need to continue to work hard to help promote what is great about our game and get on with the job of building Rugby in Australia.

    Today we will launch Phase Three of our campaign ‘Part of More’. It’s a celebration of all things Rugby and it has reinforced to me, and to so many others, why it’s so important that we continue to fight for and defend the values of our game – values like inclusion, passion, integrity, discipline, respect and teamwork.

    All the videos are here: https://australia.rugby/media/partofmore

    I would love for you to share the stories through your community or on your own social pages, to show the great work Rugby is doing in the community.

    Just briefly, as I’m sure you’ve seen some of the media coverage regarding the Israel Folau matter, I thought I could offer some clarification on where Rugby Australia stands.

    I want to make clear that Rugby Australia has acted with complete professionalism and integrity at all times through the process by which Israel was found, by an independent three-member tribunal panel, to have made multiple, serious breaches of the Professional Players Code of Conduct. The panel found the breaches constituted a high level and directed Rugby Australia to terminate Israel’s contract.

    This is an employment matter and does not concern his religious beliefs or his ability to express them freely. If some of you follow Israel’s social accounts, you will have noticed he has posted religious material freely and openly over the last few years.

    The media attention it has garnered is obviously distracting as it means that we aren’t talking about, and celebrating, all the great things going on in our game.

    Finally, we’d love to see you at a Wallaroos or Wallabies Test Match over the next two months and watch out for the launch of our Rugby World Cup Wallaby supporter campaign.

    On behalf of us all at Rugby Australia, thank you for your support of our Game.

  31. See, there you go Rex. It did not take long……………………
    You, of course, “debate” whereas BW “throws stones”………..
    As you posted earlier “Tut Tut”………………………..
    He has called you and your amigos out…………………..I think he is wasting time and effort on you which is better spent just (sc)rolling by.

  32. Rex

    In both cases, people have gone into the job knowing what they’re allowed to say. I’ve worked in Catholic schools, and you have to sign up to a code of conduct to do so.

  33. zoomster

    Am I just being sentimental when I just want the old CES back? When I went to NT I went to the local CES and picked up a job in 24 hours. No charge, no fuss. This privatisation/everything for profit lark is hopless.

  34. lizzie

    Nah, the old CES was brilliant.

    My job provider doesn’t even pretend he’s looking for work for me. My interview consists of five minutes of standard queries, then twenty minutes of gossip, and then I go home. The interview is meant to go for an hour.

  35. LVT
    As a working class boy who got into a profession where following Shute Shield was de rigour for advancement i have a deep sense of schadenfreud at the implosion of Rugby Union

  36. Tricot @ #388 Thursday, June 27th, 2019 – 5:50 pm

    See, there you go Rex. It did not take long……………………
    You, of course, “debate” whereas BW “throws stones”………..
    As you posted earlier “Tut Tut”………………………..
    He has called you and your amigos out…………………..I think he is wasting time and effort on you which is better spent just (sc)rolling by.

    You both should make up your minds – ignore me and scroll, or , engage in conversation.

  37. Hasn’t the Australian death rate declined under the LNP?

    What does this mean – miserable lowly waged peasants live longer?

    Low wage SDA agreements are helping to reduce the death rate?

    Thoughts?

  38. If I went to one of Folau’s congregations and stood up and called them all nutters do you think he’d have me back next time ?

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