We’re still yet to have a new poll of federal voting intention after the election, for whatever that may still be worth, but I would imagine Newspoll will be breaking its drought to mark next week’s resumption of parliament. We do, however, have one of the Lowy Institute’s occasional surveys on attitudes to foreign affairs, the results of which are attractively presented on the organisation’s website.
The headline topic of the poll is Sino-American relations, and the results point to a sharp decline in trust towards China, which a clear majority of respondents rated the “world’s leading economic power”. Even clearer majorities, of around three-quarters, believed China was pursuing regional domination, and that Australia should do more to resist its military activities even if it affected our too-close economic relationship.
However, the poll also finds a further decline in trust in the United States, to add to the body-blow it took when Donald Trump was elected. Of particular interest here are the age breakdowns. Whereas there was little to distinguish the age cohorts in their positive view of the US on Obama’s watch, respondents in their youth and early middle-age now take a substantially more negative view than older ones.
Relatedly, the highly negative and worsening view of Trump personally, while evident across all age cohorts, is most pronounced among the young. This carries through to a head-to-head question on whether respondents should prioritise strong relations with the United States or China, with a majority of those aged 18-30 favouring China, and a large majority of the 60-plus cohort favouring the United States.
Beyond that, the survey offers no end of interesting material:
• Respondents were asked about their satisfaction with democracy – which, one often reads, is in freefall throughout the western world, particularly among the young. However, the Lowy Institute’s yearly tracking of this question going back to 2012 doesn’t show any such thing. If anything, there seems to be a slight trend in favour of the response that “democracy is preferable to any other kind of government”, which is up three on last year at 65%. While the young are less sold on this notion than the old, there has been a solid improving trend among the 18-to-30 cohort, with this year’s result up six on last year’s to 55%, a new high over the course of the series.
• Evaluations were sought on a limited sample of foreign leaders, specifically concerning whether they could be trusted in world affairs. Donald Trump ranked down alongside Vladimir Putin, while Jacinda Ardern recorded near-unanimous acclaim, with 88% expressing either a lot of or some confidence. New Zealand was rated “Australia’s best friend” out of six available options by 59%, up from six since 2017.
• Brexit was rated a bad thing for the United Kingdom by 62%, a bad thing for the European Union by 70%, and a bad thing for the West in general by 58%. The UK’s rating on a “feelings thermometer” fell six points, to 76.
• Concern about climate change maintained an upward trajectory, with 61% favouring action “even if this involves significant costs”. The long-range trend on this question going back to 2006 suggests climate change is less of a problem when Labor are in office.
• Views on immigration were less negative than last year, after a significant hardening of opinion between 2014 and 2018. However, the immigration rate was still held to be too high by 48% of all respondents, and a very large majority of older ones.
The survey was conducted online and by telephone from March 12 to 25 from a sample of 2130.
The second part of today’s lesson relates to Senate preference flows, from which we can obtain no end of information thanks to the Australian Electoral Commission’s publication of the data files containing the preference order for every single ballot paper. By contrast, we’re still waiting on the two-party preference splits the AEC eventually publishes for each party in the House of Representatives. There will be a lot of analysis of this information here over the coming weeks, but for starters I offer the following:
This shows, from left to right, the rate of voters’ adherence to their favoured party’s how-to-vote-card; the rate at which minor party voters’ preference orders favoured Labor over the Coalition or vice-versa, or neither in the event that they did not number either party (“two-party”); and a similar three-way measure that throws the Greens into the mix (“three-party”).
This shows that United Australia Party voters heavily favoured the Coalition over Labor, but not because they were following the party’s how-to-vote cards, a course followed by around 0.1% of the total electorate. One Nation preferences were only slightly less favourable to the Coalition, and even fewer of the party’s voters followed the card. Since One Nation’s preferences in the lower house split almost evenly in 2016, out of the 15 seats where they ran, it seems safe to assume a shift in One Nation preferences accounted for a substantial chunk of the two-party swing to the Coalition. I will calculate Senate preference flows from 2016 for comparison over the next few days.
Workers arriving by air and who claim asylum are usually granted bridging visas that allow them to work. So they become an inherently marginally-attached cohort in the labour market. They’re a fully disposable workforce. They are among the millions of itinerant workers who are trying to find a toehold in the vastly over-supplied global labour market. Their insecurity is also the insecurity of native workers.
Their presence here and the conditions under which they stay and seek their subsistence are features of the repression that is everywhere created by the market.
I’m voting for Booker. He has the longest chromosome.
C@tmomma @ #195 Thursday, June 27th, 2019 – 1:02 pm
I’d be happy to pay more…
Bucephalus
You’re trying too hard to defend Mr Pyne.
The principle of not taking advantage of your position after leaving government lasts for a number of months afterwards, and is the whole point of the (broken) rule.
C@tmomma
That argument could be made with just about anything and does not justify robbing workers of their true worth. Exploiting labour is the lazy management bastards way out. Make them pay proper wages and so force them use the innovation and creativity we keep hearing about or get out of the industry and make room for someone who will.
They must have been leant on by a Coalition member, as he has been telling the truth about Pyne’s new position.
@tmomma says:
Thursday, June 27, 2019 at 12:29 pm
“ ensuring integrity within the Ministry ”
He specifically said “within”. Pyne and all other ex-Cabinet Ministers are not “within” the Ministry. Words are important and he needs to be specific about what he means. If he is concerned with the application of the Code to Ex-Ministers then he needs to be very clear about that.
“The problem with that analysis is that the Code speaks of ‘having been in the Ministry’. Which Pyne most definitely was.”
Yes, Pyne was in the ministery, but he is not any more and you are extrapolating his inaccurate tweet to ex-Ministers.
“So, essentially what you are saying is, why bother having that ethical guide in the Code of Conduct? Go hard with exploiting your previous position and contacts!”
Once a person leaves Parliament they aren’t in any way bound by the Code. If it is that serious a problem then make some laws around the issue. I look forward to the ALP proposing some legislation.
I have read the code and the relevant provisions – they are specifically related to the activity of lobbying or using specific information for gain – and at this stage there is no evidence that either of these things will occur.
I suspect that this CA Senator from SA has an axe to grind against Pyne.
We are not a fascist country. Yet. If the LNP gets its way it seems we might soon be.
“Asked if the nation would see a return to the WorkChoices era, Mr Porter said he had “no interest in treating the industrial relations system as a contest” and that his reforms would benefit both employers and employees.”
Bwahahaha! They don’t want a contest. They want to screw the workers without having to fight.
@markdreyfusQC tweets
This is what Australians have come to expect from the shady and self serving Morrison Government. Mr Morrison is trashing his own “Ministerial Standards” if Pyne can take this job. https://twitter.com/knausc/status/1143764582952869888
@knausc
EY hires Christopher Pyne to boost defence business by @TomMcIlroy and Edmund Tadros https://www.afr.com/business/accounting/ey-hires-christopher-pyne-to-boost-its-defence-business-20190626-p521cj
Nicholas, I wonder if the share of income going to small contractors is regarded as wages earned in the national accounts, or whether they are counted with profits. There has been an enormous proliferation of micro businesses over the last 40-50 years. The incomes earned in this sector are often at low hourly rates and can be very erratic, and while they can be thought of as wage-like also include capital-like returns on the vehicles, plant and working capital required by these enterprises. If this income is also counted with wages, then the repression of the wage share is even more pronounced than it would appear to be.
It’s also the case that the income attributable to profits has become very much more concentrated over the last 50 years. The economy is much more heavily monopolised and in many ways is less diversely comprised than had been the case. Just a handful of ASX-listed companies (maybe 8 of them) account for far more than 80% of total profits earned by listed entities.
We have an economy in which wage repression is more and more widespread, profit concentration more intense, new enterprise failure rates are extremely high, and business formation rates are falling. We have a sickening order.
briefly says:
Thursday, June 27, 2019 at 12:32 pm
“Trump most certainly is racist. He exploits minorities politically all the time. He is a bigot’s bigot.”
I’m happy to change my mind if you can provide some evidence of him discriminating as POTUS against minorities.
“The claim the Trump is not Republican is absurd.”
He contributed to the Democrats all the time – almost $2 million USD
https://ballotpedia.org/History_of_Donald_Trump%27s_political_donations
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-06-27/rugby-league-players-found-to-have-deadly-brain-disease/11254032
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jun/27/full-employment-is-the-most-urgent-task-for-social-democrats?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=soc_568&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1561605276
guytaur says:
Thursday, June 27, 2019 at 1:17 pm
We are not a fascist country. Yet. If the LNP gets its way it seems we might soon be.
We have a virtual one-Party system at the Federal level. Labor have succeeded in just one election since 1996. We have next to no chance of winning as things stand. 2/3 primary votes go to anti-Labor voices.
Candidates describing themselves as National Socialists ran in the May election. We have institutionalised repression of unions and the rights of workers to organise. We have the systemic repression of wages. We have the systemic corruption of the public sector. We have a gulag. We have legislated for the arbitrary imprisonment of various classes of offenders.
We have a tyranny here, a tyranny that is enabled by systemic dysfunction on the left-of-centre, by the determination of the Greens to ensure Labor will always lose.
C@tmomma says:
Thursday, June 27, 2019 at 12:38 pm
You just called all Unions racist.
And here is Bill Shorten:
“Shorten told a rally of Australian Manufacturing Workers Union (AMWU) members at the gates of the Australian Submarine Corporation: “Under Labor, we will build ships and submarines in Australia because we love this country.” The shrill speech appealed to the worst in the Australian psyche. Speaking of the Abbott government, Shorten said: “This is a government with a short memory… When it comes to the long-term decisions, they are a dangerous government… In the Second World War, 366 merchant ships were sunk off Australia and the government in the 1930s said ‘we don’t need Australian ships, we’ll privatise them’… This is a government that forgets everything and learns nothing… For goodness sake, Tony Abbott, buy a map of the world. We are an island, Tony Abbott, and our navy matters.” Shorten said the Abbott government was “contracting out the defence of Australia, they are fighting for jobs in foreign countries, not our own… and they are playing with fire [with”> our national security”… On the tape of Shorten’s speech, an interjector can be heard saying: “Last time we had Jap subs, they were in bloody Sydney Harbour.” Shorten was introduced by Paul Bastian, National Secretary of the AWMU, who told the rally: “Today, when I left the airport in Sydney, this headline greeted me: ‘Japanese subs on the way.’ Do you feel betrayed?””
There’s plenty more where that came from.
lizzie….Per Capita is correct.
We have to restore full employment to its rightful place as the primary goal of Labor’s economic policy.
This is imperative. Until we do this, we can accurately be described as Lib-lite.
briefly says:
Thursday, June 27, 2019 at 12:41 pm
You must be very pleased that we don’t actually have any laws against “hate speech” – you have it down to a fine art.
adrian @ #198 Thursday, June 27th, 2019 – 1:03 pm
I heard that Trump was bringing to the dinner with Mr and Mrs Morrison, not Mrs Trump but Ivanka. 😐
guytaur says:
Thursday, June 27, 2019 at 12:50 pm
I do hope they do keep on banging on about that sort of stuff because that is what is really important to the voters in the Rust belt states. Apparently. #winning
If I touched a nerve Bucephalus, then I’m glad to learn of it. None of the matters I’ve mentioned are invented. They are real. They are features of the order operated by the Liberals and their clones.
We live in a quasi-tyranny. Get used to it.
briefly
Of course, if the great ALP was to be in power for a few decades you would be more than happy for a one-Party system.
In fact, much of what you argue for, re the Greens party in particular, is implicitly undemocratic.
Bucephalus @ #216 Thursday, June 27th, 2019 – 1:29 pm
That’s a long bow to draw. Nativist, maybe. Racist, nah. Anyway, it was Paul Bastiaan that made the comment about the Japanese. Bill Shorten was simply saying, wtte, how good is Australian Made!?!
Btw, what’s your opinion about Clive Palmer’s Anti Chinese rhetoric, which he used to great effect against Labor in the federal election and which the Coalition benefited from to the tune of 90% of UAP preferences?
briefly says:
Thursday, June 27, 2019 at 12:56 pm
They aren’t prisoners. They can holiday in Fiji. They can leave if they wish – just not to Australia.
Why the Indian chap who self-immolated the other week hadn’t been sent straight back to India is beyond me.
Some would argue not having proportional representation in the HoR ensures a two-party state, or to use your colourful language, “a quasi-tyranny” of two.
The only real way to generate wealth is through time in the market
___________________________
tell that to James Simons!!! 🙂
Or Steve Cohen!
Please could someone explain this to me.
lizzie @ #228 Thursday, June 27th, 2019 – 1:42 pm
lizzie, best to ignore such nonsense.
Tristo says:
Thursday, June 27, 2019 at 1:02 pm
I’m unclear how you get a racist connection to “f*** were full” (I’m certain they use correct grammar of we’re but would be unsurprised if those displaying the stickers were unaware).
If you are just assuming that they are racists then you are probably occasionally correct.
Is it racist if they are referring to Caucasians from the UK, Ireland and White South Africans? (We appear to have plenty of them here in the Northern suburbs of Perth – they like the weather and the beaches.)
Do you think they are racist if they are Aboriginal and have that on their vehicle?
There is a cohort of population control advocates even here on this site who would rightly take offence at being called racists. I certainly don’t ascribe to that theory.
:large
poroti says:
Thursday, June 27, 2019 at 1:10 pm
So you are cool with human jobs being replaced by machines?
The Unions priced their members out of jobs as train drivers and HaulPak Drivers in the Pilbara – good effort.
lizzie @ #232 Thursday, June 27th, 2019 – 1:52 pm
I’m sure Eric Abetz would be the first to take offence if people disparaged his muscular Christianity.
Bucephalus @ #233 Thursday, June 27th, 2019 – 1:53 pm
I’m sure those 2 blue collar mining services workers in Queensland on 250k/year who refused to shake Bill Shorten’s hand and voted Liberal, more likely than not, would love to have your attitude relayed to them.
guytaur says:
Thursday, June 27, 2019 at 1:17 pm
“We are not a fascist country. Yet. If the LNP gets its way it seems we might soon be.”
What’s with all this “hate speech”?
What will the LNP be getting if it “gets its way” that will make Australia a Fascist country?
Really, you need to stop being ridiculous if you want to be taken seriously.
Bucephalus @ #233 Thursday, June 27th, 2019 – 1:53 pm
I can tell you from extended experience you do not work in the Pilbara unless you are handsomely rewarded for all the hardships and disadvantages.
briefly says:
Thursday, June 27, 2019 at 1:20 pm
“It’s also the case that the income attributable to profits has become very much more concentrated over the last 50 years. The economy is much more heavily monopolised and in many ways is less diversely comprised than had been the case. Just a handful of ASX-listed companies (maybe 8 of them) account for far more than 80% of total profits earned by listed entities.”
And the great thing is that workers superannuation funds own those assets and therefore benefit from that.
Buce
You have not been paying attention.
Still as a supporter of a theocracy I am not surprised at your reaction
“The Unions priced their members out of jobs as train drivers and HaulPak Drivers in the Pilbara – good effort.”
Fuck. What bullshit. Drivers could have been paid $10 per hour or $200 per hour. Made no difference to the decision to automate services once the technology was available and mature.
Morrison’s plan to send recipients of unemployment benefits to farms (with financial punishment for those who don’t comply) could run up against the new Commonwealth Modern Slavery Act.
This article suggests there are many forms of slavery, both overseas and in Australia. Colesworths are covered by this legislation and have already shown a sensitivity to criticism of their purchasing practices. Is forcing dole recipients to pick fruit a form of slavery? We may be about to find out.
Bucephalus
There is a shortage of workers so machines will be replacing non existent workers. Machines that will need operators and service/maintenance.
C@tmomma says:
Thursday, June 27, 2019 at 1:37 pm
“what’s your opinion about Clive Palmer’s Anti Chinese rhetoric, which he used to great effect against Labor in the federal election and which the Coalition benefited from to the tune of 90% of UAP preferences?”
I understand why Palmer has a personal beef against the Chinese as a Nation because he has been in legal and commercial conflict with them for years. The bollocks that he rolled out about runways etc was cartoonish in how strategically wrong it was.
The good thing was he and none of his candidates won a seat in parliament and he wasted many millions on it. Sucker.
As for preference flows – the LNP getting preferences from the UAP is no different to the ALP getting preferences from the Greens – both extremist nutbag parties. Pretty sure the ALP gets the preferences of the nutters on the left like Socialist Alliance, Victorian Socialists etc.
PatriciaKarvelas@PatsKarvelas
9m9 minutes ago
The idea that words “will never hurt” is the most ludicrous thing to argue. You may think that hurt is a price worth paying to keep speech free, but arguing that words should not be hurtful is fanciful and the language of the very privileged #auspol
poroti says:
Thursday, June 27, 2019 at 2:01 pm
Bucephalus
There is a shortage of workers so machines will be replacing non existent workers. Machines that will need operators and service/maintenance.
———————————–
When it comes to large scale automation its not due to a lack of workers, there isn’t a shortage of check-out staff or train drivers. Automation is about reducing labour costs and better focusing productivity of labour and capital.
There is something warm and fuzzy about seeing Stokes getting bowled by Starc then Stokes behaving like a petulant 12 year old.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n2AYPFAk-Uo
He could just have politely nodded to Starc in admiration. Or he could have walked off without being a drama queen. But nope. Stokes will be Stokes. Seems unfair that such a character can be so talented.
The ACL certainly takes offence at being criticised. From their website soliciting donations for their “freedom fund”:
lizzie says:
Thursday, June 27, 2019 at 1:42 pm
They can leave Nauru if they wish and have holidayed in Fiji:
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/immigration/new-zealand-blocks-holidaying-refugees-coming-from-nauru/news-story/42e1ed646e2d3df956b48faa63c2fe5e
Is that a prison?
adrian says:
Thursday, June 27, 2019 at 1:45 pm
lizzie @ #228 Thursday, June 27th, 2019 – 1:42 pm
“They aren’t prisoners. They can holiday in Fiji.
Please could someone explain this to me.
lizzie, best to ignore such nonsense.”
Are you denying this has happened?
guytaur says:
Thursday, June 27, 2019 at 1:59 pm
“Still as a supporter of a theocracy I am not surprised at your reaction”
WTF?