We’re still yet to have a new poll of federal voting intention after the election, for whatever that may still be worth, but I would imagine Newspoll will be breaking its drought to mark next week’s resumption of parliament. We do, however, have one of the Lowy Institute’s occasional surveys on attitudes to foreign affairs, the results of which are attractively presented on the organisation’s website.
The headline topic of the poll is Sino-American relations, and the results point to a sharp decline in trust towards China, which a clear majority of respondents rated the “world’s leading economic power”. Even clearer majorities, of around three-quarters, believed China was pursuing regional domination, and that Australia should do more to resist its military activities even if it affected our too-close economic relationship.
However, the poll also finds a further decline in trust in the United States, to add to the body-blow it took when Donald Trump was elected. Of particular interest here are the age breakdowns. Whereas there was little to distinguish the age cohorts in their positive view of the US on Obama’s watch, respondents in their youth and early middle-age now take a substantially more negative view than older ones.
Relatedly, the highly negative and worsening view of Trump personally, while evident across all age cohorts, is most pronounced among the young. This carries through to a head-to-head question on whether respondents should prioritise strong relations with the United States or China, with a majority of those aged 18-30 favouring China, and a large majority of the 60-plus cohort favouring the United States.
Beyond that, the survey offers no end of interesting material:
• Respondents were asked about their satisfaction with democracy – which, one often reads, is in freefall throughout the western world, particularly among the young. However, the Lowy Institute’s yearly tracking of this question going back to 2012 doesn’t show any such thing. If anything, there seems to be a slight trend in favour of the response that “democracy is preferable to any other kind of government”, which is up three on last year at 65%. While the young are less sold on this notion than the old, there has been a solid improving trend among the 18-to-30 cohort, with this year’s result up six on last year’s to 55%, a new high over the course of the series.
• Evaluations were sought on a limited sample of foreign leaders, specifically concerning whether they could be trusted in world affairs. Donald Trump ranked down alongside Vladimir Putin, while Jacinda Ardern recorded near-unanimous acclaim, with 88% expressing either a lot of or some confidence. New Zealand was rated “Australia’s best friend” out of six available options by 59%, up from six since 2017.
• Brexit was rated a bad thing for the United Kingdom by 62%, a bad thing for the European Union by 70%, and a bad thing for the West in general by 58%. The UK’s rating on a “feelings thermometer” fell six points, to 76.
• Concern about climate change maintained an upward trajectory, with 61% favouring action “even if this involves significant costs”. The long-range trend on this question going back to 2006 suggests climate change is less of a problem when Labor are in office.
• Views on immigration were less negative than last year, after a significant hardening of opinion between 2014 and 2018. However, the immigration rate was still held to be too high by 48% of all respondents, and a very large majority of older ones.
The survey was conducted online and by telephone from March 12 to 25 from a sample of 2130.
The second part of today’s lesson relates to Senate preference flows, from which we can obtain no end of information thanks to the Australian Electoral Commission’s publication of the data files containing the preference order for every single ballot paper. By contrast, we’re still waiting on the two-party preference splits the AEC eventually publishes for each party in the House of Representatives. There will be a lot of analysis of this information here over the coming weeks, but for starters I offer the following:
This shows, from left to right, the rate of voters’ adherence to their favoured party’s how-to-vote-card; the rate at which minor party voters’ preference orders favoured Labor over the Coalition or vice-versa, or neither in the event that they did not number either party (“two-party”); and a similar three-way measure that throws the Greens into the mix (“three-party”).
This shows that United Australia Party voters heavily favoured the Coalition over Labor, but not because they were following the party’s how-to-vote cards, a course followed by around 0.1% of the total electorate. One Nation preferences were only slightly less favourable to the Coalition, and even fewer of the party’s voters followed the card. Since One Nation’s preferences in the lower house split almost evenly in 2016, out of the 15 seats where they ran, it seems safe to assume a shift in One Nation preferences accounted for a substantial chunk of the two-party swing to the Coalition. I will calculate Senate preference flows from 2016 for comparison over the next few days.
What can one say?
Buce phalus
Are you comfortable with Scott Morrison being called an ‘absolute arsehole’ by his ministers?
Should Leigh Sales question him on this revelation tonight? And should she question him on Trump’s invitation for Morrison to sign Australia up to the ‘Axis of Assholes’?
Truly interested in your view.
BK
Damn your eyes. The man is ugly through and through.
BK @ #1597 Monday, July 1st, 2019 – 3:31 pm
Just my personal opinion that a PM so immersed in christian faith as Morrison is.. is a worry.
BK says: Monday, July 1, 2019 at 3:31 pm
What can one say?
******************************************
Sieg Hail my leader ?????
phoenixRED @ #1601 Monday, July 1st, 2019 – 3:34 pm
Morrison has his faults but that is just ridiculous.
Rex Douglas:
[‘Given Morrisons ascension to the PMship and his subsequent election victory, there’s a strong argument that Labor should have moved earlier on Bill Shorten and installed Albanese to fight the election.’]
I very much doubt that Albanese could’ve pulled it off. What I do think, though, is that Labor should’ve attacked Palmer far earlier than it did, and not armed with lettuce. It’s almost tragic to think that this country’s prime minister speaks in tongues, believes in the “Rapture.”
Cheek to cheek
lizzie @ #1549 Monday, July 1st, 2019 – 1:08 pm
Too late. Labor is already looking relaxed and comfortable in their natural role of opposition.
It’s the Labor way.
Jonathan Green@GreenJ
1m1 minute ago
Stage three tax cuts …
Fully support Victorian of the Year Neil Daniher. Wonderful acknowledgement.
Simon² Katich® @ #1608 Monday, July 1st, 2019 – 3:38 pm
Cheek between cheek.
Mavis Davis @ #1607 Monday, July 1st, 2019 – 3:37 pm
‘armed with a lettuce’
It’s the Labor way.
Mavis Davis @ #1603 Monday, July 1st, 2019 – 3:37 pm
What do you base that on ?
Heard this morning that Patrick will support the tax cut for gas relief. SHould be easy for an asshole to deliver the gas.
mundo:
[‘armed with a lettuce’
It’s the Labor way.’]
You’re probably right, but I guess we should hold judgment until we see what Albanese can achieve. I do hope he can find the mongrel in him.
Bottoms up.
Dan Gulberry @ #1601 Monday, July 1st, 2019 – 3:29 pm
Now that my son is working he decided to buy a Smart OLED TV last week. So I might get Stan. I’ve heard it’s the best of the bunch of Amazon Prime, Netflix and Foxtel.
Rex Douglas:
[‘What do you base that on?’]
On the basis that Labor’s tax policies, though well-based, were not prosecuted well.
“The chickens are coming home to roost for Sth Australian voters with the privatisation of their tram and train business.”
The buses are already. Aren’t Melbournes teams and trains privatised?
Mavis Davis @ #1616 Monday, July 1st, 2019 – 3:48 pm
You’re not convinced Albanese/Chalmers could’ve sold the policies better than Shorten/Bowen ..?
Diogenes @ #1617 Monday, July 1st, 2019 – 3:48 pm
Yes, a regrettable legacy of Jeff Kennett and subsequent Govts.
From Savva’s book.
“On the Friday Morrison became prime minister, he told his receptionist, Mel, to text his family and ask them to pray for him. Before he left the office, he prayed with his colleague and friend Stuart Robert. Savva asked Robert to tell her how they passed that time alone. “We prayed that righteousness would exalt the nation,” Roberts said. Savva asked Robert if righteousness would manifest itself in the form of a Morrison victory? “Righteousness would mean the right person had won,” Robert replied.”
—–
And these are grown men?
Expletive deleted!
Simon Birmingham is on Karvelas again this afternoon.
Will he be trying to play down the revelations in Savva’s book?
Simon Birmingham is on Karvelas again this afternoon.
___
If he can get through the door to the studio.
lizzie @ #1627 Monday, July 1st, 2019 – 3:58 pm
That’s his job.
This is one view.
BK @ #1628 Monday, July 1st, 2019 – 4:00 pm
Same goes for the SmugMo interview on 7.30 tonight.
lizzie @ #1630 Monday, July 1st, 2019 – 4:02 pm
I read that they WILL be able to do both as a result of a surge in Iron Ore receipts.
C@t
You mean that Lucky Scott’s God has hit him in the bum with a rainbow?
The surge in iron ore and other minerals is not continually sustainable to form the basis of a 10 year tax policy.
We still have a 600 billion dollar debt!
Fitzgibbon is rather unconvincing on Karvelas just now.
If I was Albanese I’d watch my back.
Centrelink tricks revealed.
Holden Hillbilly @ #1634 Monday, July 1st, 2019 – 4:11 pm
Inflation to the rescue!
If you believe in a fair society, you really need to read that whistleblower letter about the frankly obscene accounting methods by Centrelink. No wonder so many people are unable to prove them wrong, because there is little relation to truth.
https://drive.google.com/file/d/15yFZNzbBYOtLYj6wNYqgzP9aSb7jeohT/view
I was just reading this Dana Milbank article in The Washington Post:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-trump-economy-house-of-cards-collapses/2019/06/21/00412398-9429-11e9-aadb-74e6b2b46f6a_story.html?utm_term=.41b668690241
Apparently, if you listen to people who still tell the truth in Trump’s America, the US will be in Recession by the end of next year and it will be longer and deeper than usual because they don’t have many fiscal tools left to deal with it quickly. And if the US sneezes, the rest of the world catches cold, so with Australia also not having much in the way of room to move with interest rate cuts, we will probably follow.
Won’t those massive tax cuts look like fools gold then?
lizzie,
If you ever want to read The Washington Post I get a free 30 day subscription to give to someone every month. 🙂
That’s a sweet offer, C@t, but I’m truly not involved enough in American politics. Perhaps someone else is interested. 🙂
There have been murmurings for a month or so. Several media outlets have been reporting it.
But I am always suspicious of business leaders and economists warning of such things. Some are Henny Pennies. Some want to be able to claim they were the first to spot it. Some of it is fear-lobbying. I am not clever enough to separate the seed from the chaff – and I reckon neither is most of the stock market.
20 years ago we relied economically on the USA.
Now we rely on Asia:
China: US$74 billion (29.2% of total Australian exports)
Japan: $26.2 billion (10.3%)
South Korea: $13.6 billion (5.4%)
India: $10.1 billion (4%)
United States: $9.2 billion (3.6%)
Hong Kong: $7.9 billion (3.1%)
New Zealand: $7.1 billion (2.8%)
Taiwan: $6.7 billion (2.6%)
Singapore: $4.9 billion (1.9%)
Thailand: $4.8 billion (1.9%)
Malaysia: $4.5 billion (1.8%)
Indonesia: $4.3 billion (1.7%)
Vietnam: $3.7 billion (1.5%)
United Kingdom: $3.6 billion (1.4%)
Netherlands: $2.2 billion (0.9%)
The Anthropocene Extinction Event marches on:
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/jul/01/more-than-a-dozen-seabird-species-in-decline-off-south-east-australia-study-finds
lizzie @ #1643 Monday, July 1st, 2019 – 4:37 pm
Not a problem.
So, if anyone is unable to afford it but is interested, let me know. 🙂
Simon² Katich® @ #1644 Monday, July 1st, 2019 – 4:46 pm
I go by the observation that, if there’s one thing Trump knows how to do, it’s go bankrupt. Doing it to America? I don’t think he’ll find that too high a hurdle to jump. 😀
sprocket_ says:
Monday, July 1, 2019 at 3:33 pm
“Buce phalus
Are you comfortable with Scott Morrison being called an ‘absolute arsehole’ by his ministers?”
Savva is a personal friend and supporter of Turnbull’s. Her husband worked for him for many years. She actively campaigned against Abbott and is now seeking payback and publicity. I doubt her claims have been independently and publicly verified. That said, politics isn’t the the school yard. I’ve worked for bosses who I didn’t personally like. Most have at some stage. Why anyone would be surprised at this, if true, and why it is news except to sell a book is beyond me. It would be more news worthy if everyone in a political party got on really well and were all best mates – that would be weird and possibly unhealthy for the battle of ideas.
“Should Leigh Sales question him on this revelation tonight?”
No, Australian Voters want to know what he is doing and going to do.
” And should she question him on Trump’s invitation for Morrison to sign Australia up to the ‘Axis of Assholes’?”
I don;t understand this question – what are you referring to?
“Truly interested in your view.”
You have it.
Regards
B
Gee that Centrelink stuff is dynamite!
I didn’t notice this from earlier in the day:
Welcome to Canberra
“Dhawra nguna dhawra Ngunnawal. Yanggu gulanyin ngalawiri, dhunayi, Ngunnawal dhawra. Wanggarralijinyin mariny balan bugarabang.”
Governor-General David Hurley, sworn in at Parliament House this morning, acknowledges country in the language of traditional owners the Ngunnawal people.