We’re still yet to have a new poll of federal voting intention after the election, for whatever that may still be worth, but I would imagine Newspoll will be breaking its drought to mark next week’s resumption of parliament. We do, however, have one of the Lowy Institute’s occasional surveys on attitudes to foreign affairs, the results of which are attractively presented on the organisation’s website.
The headline topic of the poll is Sino-American relations, and the results point to a sharp decline in trust towards China, which a clear majority of respondents rated the “world’s leading economic power”. Even clearer majorities, of around three-quarters, believed China was pursuing regional domination, and that Australia should do more to resist its military activities even if it affected our too-close economic relationship.
However, the poll also finds a further decline in trust in the United States, to add to the body-blow it took when Donald Trump was elected. Of particular interest here are the age breakdowns. Whereas there was little to distinguish the age cohorts in their positive view of the US on Obama’s watch, respondents in their youth and early middle-age now take a substantially more negative view than older ones.
Relatedly, the highly negative and worsening view of Trump personally, while evident across all age cohorts, is most pronounced among the young. This carries through to a head-to-head question on whether respondents should prioritise strong relations with the United States or China, with a majority of those aged 18-30 favouring China, and a large majority of the 60-plus cohort favouring the United States.
Beyond that, the survey offers no end of interesting material:
• Respondents were asked about their satisfaction with democracy – which, one often reads, is in freefall throughout the western world, particularly among the young. However, the Lowy Institute’s yearly tracking of this question going back to 2012 doesn’t show any such thing. If anything, there seems to be a slight trend in favour of the response that “democracy is preferable to any other kind of government”, which is up three on last year at 65%. While the young are less sold on this notion than the old, there has been a solid improving trend among the 18-to-30 cohort, with this year’s result up six on last year’s to 55%, a new high over the course of the series.
• Evaluations were sought on a limited sample of foreign leaders, specifically concerning whether they could be trusted in world affairs. Donald Trump ranked down alongside Vladimir Putin, while Jacinda Ardern recorded near-unanimous acclaim, with 88% expressing either a lot of or some confidence. New Zealand was rated “Australia’s best friend” out of six available options by 59%, up from six since 2017.
• Brexit was rated a bad thing for the United Kingdom by 62%, a bad thing for the European Union by 70%, and a bad thing for the West in general by 58%. The UK’s rating on a “feelings thermometer” fell six points, to 76.
• Concern about climate change maintained an upward trajectory, with 61% favouring action “even if this involves significant costs”. The long-range trend on this question going back to 2006 suggests climate change is less of a problem when Labor are in office.
• Views on immigration were less negative than last year, after a significant hardening of opinion between 2014 and 2018. However, the immigration rate was still held to be too high by 48% of all respondents, and a very large majority of older ones.
The survey was conducted online and by telephone from March 12 to 25 from a sample of 2130.
The second part of today’s lesson relates to Senate preference flows, from which we can obtain no end of information thanks to the Australian Electoral Commission’s publication of the data files containing the preference order for every single ballot paper. By contrast, we’re still waiting on the two-party preference splits the AEC eventually publishes for each party in the House of Representatives. There will be a lot of analysis of this information here over the coming weeks, but for starters I offer the following:
This shows, from left to right, the rate of voters’ adherence to their favoured party’s how-to-vote-card; the rate at which minor party voters’ preference orders favoured Labor over the Coalition or vice-versa, or neither in the event that they did not number either party (“two-party”); and a similar three-way measure that throws the Greens into the mix (“three-party”).
This shows that United Australia Party voters heavily favoured the Coalition over Labor, but not because they were following the party’s how-to-vote cards, a course followed by around 0.1% of the total electorate. One Nation preferences were only slightly less favourable to the Coalition, and even fewer of the party’s voters followed the card. Since One Nation’s preferences in the lower house split almost evenly in 2016, out of the 15 seats where they ran, it seems safe to assume a shift in One Nation preferences accounted for a substantial chunk of the two-party swing to the Coalition. I will calculate Senate preference flows from 2016 for comparison over the next few days.
C@tmomma says:
Monday, July 1, 2019 at 9:58 am
He could be Jim, biding his time, hoping for a Senate recall.
Of course. Everyone knows Shorten’s problem was that he just didn’t commit hard enough to being Lib-lite. 🙂
I notice that recently there have been several adverts by Mining (unspecified) which laud their care for the environment, showing pics of ‘beautiful grass’ after restoration. As if any land can be returned to its original state.
lizzie @ #1504 Monday, July 1st, 2019 – 10:11 am
Remind me how long it takes to grow an actual Eucalypt that a Koala can live in again? Basically it’s a long, long time.
C@t
I think the accepted time to 80-100 years, which is why Forestry’s standard period of 40-60 years is so destructive.
Setka is not lying down.
Did Albo move too quickly and without appropriate consideration?
That’s been my concern.
https://mobile.twitter.com/ljayes/status/1145466776701898753/photo/1
From the Guardian blog
This is about her investment on the Gold Coast
Barney
I believe that Albo moved too quickly and has provided Morrison with an excuse to act against militant (sic) unions. Trying to bring in tighter laws against union reps daring to set foot in a dangerous workplace will bring on another fight with Labor.
My understanding is that if all the world’s governments committed to eliminating greenhouse gas emissions we could eliminate nearly all emissions with existing technology. However, jet fuel for planes and coking coal for the production of steel do not yet have substitutes that are devoid of greenhouse gas emissions.
We could get close though. It is a damn shame that we haven’t done a lot more.
This really is worth watching. The skill of a team of herding dogs (stay until the end).
https://twitter.com/i/status/1140560897808764929
lizzie says:
Monday, July 1, 2019 at 10:26 am
It’s certainly providing oxygen, especially when they have so little of their own that they wish to talk about.
I caught sight of the Daily Tele in the corner store this morning, and actually laughed out loud – they have executed a flawless and incredibly funny self-parody.
Brilliant lizzie! 🙂
Barney in Makassar @ #1508 Monday, July 1st, 2019 – 10:20 am
John Setka has been convicted of and has pled guilty to, Domestic Violence charges. End of story. He has to go.
The Potato takes back control.
How surprising¿
The Guardian blog
C@tmomma says:
Monday, July 1, 2019 at 10:51 am
But C@t, that is not the basis of Albo’s complaint.
Mr Albanese has opened up the expulsion process for Setka to extend to non Rose Batty matters.
Removal of any person from an organisation inevitably gives rise to fairness issues and matters of procedure.
Mr Albanese would have had the option of saying that he asked the ALP to investigate Setka re removal.
Barney in Makassar @ #1518 Monday, July 1st, 2019 – 10:55 am
Where does it say that matters?
As in, is there some Labor party bylaw that says if someone requests review of another person’s membership on the grounds of character issues then that review can only consider the specific character issue(s) raised in the initial request and not all aspects of their character?
If not, then it doesn’t matter what Albo initially complained about. If so, then Albo should be using his position as party leader to amend that rule so that it’s less stupid.
Bucephalus @ #1488 Monday, July 1st, 2019 – 9:34 am
You call him ‘Lefty’ while I just call him rational and sensible. What does that make you?
I liked this from David Hurley’s speech, quoting David Malouf, an Australian author.
It captures the evolving nature of Australia’s make up and shows up the lie of those who wish a return to the past.
Barney. The basis of Albo’s complaint was a number of cumulative issues. The Rosie Batty stuff was just the last in a long line. The resonance with those comments and Setka’s own real life pending charges was too obvious to ignore. Especially given the partial admissions on social media he made on the day that he was charged. Albo couldn’t simply let this albatross bleed for any longer.
I suppose right now there is a team of scribes rushing to think up ‘plans’ that do not include ‘blame Labor for everything’.
Albanese assured everyone that Setka would be gone from the labor party by the 5th of July. No perhaps, no let us see what we can do. A straight out gone by the 5th of July from Albanese the leader of the federal labor party.
We shall wait and see if his word is worth much on this issue. If Albanese thought Setka would just roll over and go quietly after his very public intervention then the judgement of Albanese must be bought into question on this.
We shall see how National executive responds over the next few days. Perhaps they will find some way to get Albanese off the hook.
The only time Labor has won a majority federally since 1993, was in 2007 with the News Corporation newspapers apart from the Herald Sun and the Advertiser endorsing Labor. Given that News Corporation own every major newspaper in Queensland that is telling.
lizzie
Monday, July 1st, 2019 – 10:30 am
Comment #1512
Wonderful display of dogs herding. Thanks. 🐕🐕🐕🐕🦆🦆🦆🦆🦆
KayJay
We have a 75/25 border collie/kelpie and his movements are just the same as he finds and rounds up the chooks and gets them back into the henhouse. He was never trained.
BK and KJ
Some friends of mine went on a group camping holiday last month that included several children and dogs, one of which was a border collie who spent its time herding the children into groups. 🙂
Boerwar
Pass on my congratulations to Bluey for his win. For his election coverage I take it ?
.
Daley Pearson
(@Daley_Pearson)
Bluey just won its first Logie #TVWEEKlogies #Bluey https://t.co/ARCJiDTdT0
June 30, 2019
BK @ #1528 Monday, July 1st, 2019 – 11:25 am
BK – my (and my wife’s) last dog ABBEE was a border collie. Just such wonderful creatures. 🐩🐕🐶
and 🌭 hot dogs for lunch.
p
An imposter.
lizzie @ #1529 Monday, July 1st, 2019 – 11:31 am
I have a “sort of” reverse experience when a collection of family members arrive with the youngest great grandson (3 and a half). It appears that the little gentleman rounds us up (more or less) in tiny groups of entertainment for him.
Lunch for one please Muriel.
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2019/07/not-poll-best-state-premierchief.html
Not-A-Poll: Best State Premier/Chief Minister Of The Last 40 Years
National finals part 1. This is a series I was running last year until it got swamped by all the elections earlier this year.
Chris Kenny is a shill. He who pays the piper calls the tune.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jun/30/so-where-were-all-these-morrison-mantras-during-the-election-campaign?CMP=share_btn_tw
When Scott ‘AA’ Morrison goes, ‘ancient history’ about what went on in the Turnbull to Morrison government last year, someone should say back to him, ‘People study ancient history you know! You can learn a lot from it.’. 😐
C@t
I think you’ll enjoy this critique of Morrison and his campaign.
https://www.themonthly.com.au/issue/2019/july/1561989600/mark-mckenna/scott-morrison-s-quiet-australians?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Friends%20of%20the%20Monthly%20%20July%2019%20Issue&utm_content=Friends%20of%20the%20Monthly%20%20July%2019%20Issue+CID_58f0cf71e574c1758753f9858c5c481f&utm_source=EDM&utm_term=Scott%20Morrisons%20quiet%20Australians
@lizzie
After reading that article, it is adding to some troubling thoughts, that I am having about the state of Australian Democracy.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-07-01/adelaide-trains-and-trams-to-be-privatised/11267236
Tristo
It seems that Morrison and his strategists deliberately set out to appeal to the disinterested and non-thinkers, and he succeeded.
Oh, I do hope so 😆
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/former-government-minister-offers-explosive-character-assessment-of-scott-morrison-in-new-book-20190630-p522sy.html
lizzie
I enjoyed it too – thanks. Reminded me of The Thick Of It episode that featured Nicola Murray’s “quiet batpeople”.
[The black skimmer bird was photographed at a beach in Florida, US, picking the butt up and putting it in the baby’s mouth.
Karen Mason, who took the photographs, issued a simple plea as she posted the pictures online: “If you smoke, please don’t leave your butts behind.”]
https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/bird-cigarette-butt-chick-picture-florida-beach-photograph-rubbish-a8980676.html?fbclid=IwAR1qp_s5P6ig-pJkDebcLuLpANCVK9T6whrJnXY0bXkPb9715NZYDk71a5o
@lizzie
I agree, also that disinformation campaign waged jointly by the government parties, Clive Palmer and even One Nation was fueled by a lot of black money.
There are parallels to Brexit and the 2016 US Presidential election, indeed Scott Morrison has the sort of extensive support from the commercial media and even the ABC, that Donald Trump can only dream of.
After an invitation from Donald Trump for Morrison to join his ‘Axis of Assholes’, namely:
Bolsanaro from Brazil
Erdogan from Turkey
Morrison from Australia
Notionally to join the Rat in Chief and rat on their own Paris commitments – little did we know that Morrison’s own Minister Keenan called Scott Morrison ‘an absolute arsehole’, with little if any rebuttal from his dining companions..
“By Latika Bourke
One of the first two cabinet ministers to quit Parliament after last year’s Liberal leadership coup described Prime Minister Scott Morrison as an “absolute arsehole,” an explosive new book claims.
Michael Keenan, who served as justice minister when Scott Morrison was immigration minister, made the comments to colleagues at a lunch at the Garum Restaurant in Perth in April 2018, just months before Mr Morrison became leader.
According to Plots and Prayers, political commentator Niki Savva’s new book about last year’s leadership stoush, Mr Keenan told his West Australian colleagues, including Finance Minister Mathias Cormann, Attorney-General Christian Porter and Mr Morrison’s chief ally Ben Morton, that Mr Morrison was an “absolute arsehole”.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/former-government-minister-offers-explosive-character-assessment-of-scott-morrison-in-new-book-20190630-p522sy.html
Kakuru
I’m seriously worried, if the smug look indicates that Morrison believes that god is on his side, he will also believe that he is always right. That’s the way that dictators are made. Labor cannot relax for a moment.
@sprocket_
I believe Scott Morrison aspires to become an ‘authoritarian’ strong man leader like Bolosanro and Erdogan. So it could be possible Morrison will try to turn Australian into a corrupt, authoritarian, ‘illiberal democracy’. Those are the troubling thoughts I have had on the state of Australian Democracy as of late.