We’re still yet to have a new poll of federal voting intention after the election, for whatever that may still be worth, but I would imagine Newspoll will be breaking its drought to mark next week’s resumption of parliament. We do, however, have one of the Lowy Institute’s occasional surveys on attitudes to foreign affairs, the results of which are attractively presented on the organisation’s website.
The headline topic of the poll is Sino-American relations, and the results point to a sharp decline in trust towards China, which a clear majority of respondents rated the “world’s leading economic power”. Even clearer majorities, of around three-quarters, believed China was pursuing regional domination, and that Australia should do more to resist its military activities even if it affected our too-close economic relationship.
However, the poll also finds a further decline in trust in the United States, to add to the body-blow it took when Donald Trump was elected. Of particular interest here are the age breakdowns. Whereas there was little to distinguish the age cohorts in their positive view of the US on Obama’s watch, respondents in their youth and early middle-age now take a substantially more negative view than older ones.
Relatedly, the highly negative and worsening view of Trump personally, while evident across all age cohorts, is most pronounced among the young. This carries through to a head-to-head question on whether respondents should prioritise strong relations with the United States or China, with a majority of those aged 18-30 favouring China, and a large majority of the 60-plus cohort favouring the United States.
Beyond that, the survey offers no end of interesting material:
• Respondents were asked about their satisfaction with democracy – which, one often reads, is in freefall throughout the western world, particularly among the young. However, the Lowy Institute’s yearly tracking of this question going back to 2012 doesn’t show any such thing. If anything, there seems to be a slight trend in favour of the response that “democracy is preferable to any other kind of government”, which is up three on last year at 65%. While the young are less sold on this notion than the old, there has been a solid improving trend among the 18-to-30 cohort, with this year’s result up six on last year’s to 55%, a new high over the course of the series.
• Evaluations were sought on a limited sample of foreign leaders, specifically concerning whether they could be trusted in world affairs. Donald Trump ranked down alongside Vladimir Putin, while Jacinda Ardern recorded near-unanimous acclaim, with 88% expressing either a lot of or some confidence. New Zealand was rated “Australia’s best friend” out of six available options by 59%, up from six since 2017.
• Brexit was rated a bad thing for the United Kingdom by 62%, a bad thing for the European Union by 70%, and a bad thing for the West in general by 58%. The UK’s rating on a “feelings thermometer” fell six points, to 76.
• Concern about climate change maintained an upward trajectory, with 61% favouring action “even if this involves significant costs”. The long-range trend on this question going back to 2006 suggests climate change is less of a problem when Labor are in office.
• Views on immigration were less negative than last year, after a significant hardening of opinion between 2014 and 2018. However, the immigration rate was still held to be too high by 48% of all respondents, and a very large majority of older ones.
The survey was conducted online and by telephone from March 12 to 25 from a sample of 2130.
The second part of today’s lesson relates to Senate preference flows, from which we can obtain no end of information thanks to the Australian Electoral Commission’s publication of the data files containing the preference order for every single ballot paper. By contrast, we’re still waiting on the two-party preference splits the AEC eventually publishes for each party in the House of Representatives. There will be a lot of analysis of this information here over the coming weeks, but for starters I offer the following:
This shows, from left to right, the rate of voters’ adherence to their favoured party’s how-to-vote-card; the rate at which minor party voters’ preference orders favoured Labor over the Coalition or vice-versa, or neither in the event that they did not number either party (“two-party”); and a similar three-way measure that throws the Greens into the mix (“three-party”).
This shows that United Australia Party voters heavily favoured the Coalition over Labor, but not because they were following the party’s how-to-vote cards, a course followed by around 0.1% of the total electorate. One Nation preferences were only slightly less favourable to the Coalition, and even fewer of the party’s voters followed the card. Since One Nation’s preferences in the lower house split almost evenly in 2016, out of the 15 seats where they ran, it seems safe to assume a shift in One Nation preferences accounted for a substantial chunk of the two-party swing to the Coalition. I will calculate Senate preference flows from 2016 for comparison over the next few days.
Frack. How long does it take to count 11,000 ballots in a two horse race, NSW Labor?
Come. On!
‘Less than a third of Greens members are happy..’
That many?
Andrew_Earlwood @ #1050 Saturday, June 29th, 2019 – 5:23 pm
11000 is no small number. Especially when you have to take the vote out of the envelope first and check off the name. I’d say that maybe 7pm is more likely when we will get our answer.
Go Jodi!
And don’t believe the Liberal shills that put out the quiet word to the media that they would have been more afraid of Chris Minns. Bollocks to that. He comes with so much dirty baggage the Libs would love it if he won.
C@tmomma says:
Saturday, June 29, 2019 at 5:31 pm
Andrew_Earlwood @ #1050 Saturday, June 29th, 2019 – 5:23 pm
Frack. How long does it take to count 11,000 ballots in a two horse race, NSW Labor?
Come. On!
11000 is no small number. Especially when you have to take the vote out of the envelope first and check off the name. I’d say that maybe 7pm is more likely when we will get our answer.
Go Jodi!
And don’t believe the Liberal shills that put out the quiet word to the media that they would have been more afraid of Chris Minns. Bollocks to that. He comes with so much dirty baggage the Libs would love it if he won.
____________-
What kind of dirty baggage? Is it similar to the Albo dirt your holding?
Meanwhile whilst we wait for the earth shattering news from the ALP leadership ballot in Sydney, it appears Xi and the Donald have agreed a “trade truce” whatever that means.
Zoomster says:
Saturday, June 29, 2019 at 4:40 pm
…
If you can’t police a law, you can’t enforce it, and if you can’t enforce it, there’s no point having it.
There was an article int he Weekly times saying 80KM/H is coming.
I think they need to do a bit of analysis. There seem to be four things involved with country accidents.
1) Speed in excess of 100 km/h, so now they are in excess of 80 km/h big deal. They are just as dead.
2)Booze. Ya like they are going t care.
3) People not used to driving on country roads. It should help that crowd I suppose.
and the big one.
4) People going to sleep. At 80Km/h, sleep is assured.
“11000 is no small number. Especially when you have to take the vote out of the envelope first and check off the name. I’d say that maybe 7pm is more likely when we will get our answer.”
They said 4pm earlier in the day.
There we go: Penny Sharpe just posted this on Facebook:
“For those watching at home, leadership ballot for the NSW Labor leader is taking longer than anticipated. With 11k+ votes to count we hope to have the result this evening by about 7.30.”
What does it matter? It’s obviously gonna be McKay.
C@tmomma @ #871 Saturday, June 29th, 2019 – 8:32 am
Bit sexist …?
One would think you’d have the brains to organise the vote so the new Leader can appear on the 6pm news.
Sad!
itsthevibe @ #1059 Saturday, June 29th, 2019 – 5:49 pm
Is it true she tried to join the Liberals ?
Does it really matter anyway whether Liberal or Labor are in Govt in NSW ..?
Rex Douglas says:
Saturday, June 29, 2019 at 5:56 pm
Does it really matter anyway whether Liberal or Labor are in Govt in NSW ..?
_____________________
Hopefully Albo will be able to intervene in the NSW State branch and make it better.
Lars Von Trier @ #1053 Saturday, June 29th, 2019 – 5:32 pm
Are you illiterate, or just mentally lazy? Or just a deadshit? I’ll go for option c. For, if you had been breathing and reading the Dawn Patrol or any other local media recently you would have read that Chris Minns’ best friend is the former, disgraced State Secretary of the Labor Party of NSW, Jamie Clements. Not only that but there is Chris Minns relationship with the various lobbyists, property developers and Labor ‘identities’ associated with the disgraced Canterbury Council.
As far as Anthony Albanese is concerned, his former relationship with the disgraced and jailed Ian McDonald would likely be enough for News Corp to use against him if they chose to.
Now don’t even think about bringing this crap up again. Piss off and go back to gazing lovingly at yourself and your ‘magnificence’ in the mirror.
You have gotten nowhere with me, and you never will.
So c@t these dirt dossiers are because politician (a) had dealings with politician (b) in the same party?
What’s the big deal? I don’t think this constitutes dirt. Sorry!
Andrew_Earlwood @ #1056 Saturday, June 29th, 2019 – 5:43 pm
So? Heroic assumptions are nothing new.
Lars Von Trier @ #1066 Saturday, June 29th, 2019 – 6:08 pm
Some people have standards. Others don’t.
Some people believe a leader should have integrity. Others think the leader is just a figurehead for the fixers and the corrupt.
I am definitely not in the latter category. You seem to be.
‘Just politician A talking to politician B.’ Yeah right.
Speed limits.
The article concluded.
“Maybe the first step is perhaps bringing the limits down on roads that aren’t sealed. That one’s probably less politically problematic.”
100 km/h on most Victorian unsealed roads. Crazy, not wide enough.
Three lessons to learn for country driving.
1) Drive to the conditions
2) You only need two wheels on the black bit. Don’t panic if you start using the edges, that is the rule that brings the city slickers unstuck, they panic and flip the car when they get four wheels back on.
3) Sideways is a state you need to deal with on a unsealed country road if you want to travel at 100 km/h.
2) is OK to teach your kids, you take themout on a single lane road and start them off slow and keep going until they can put two wheels off and back on at 100 km/h hour. You have to do it because it is the panic that kills.
3) It is hard; a mistake and your on your roof. When your a teenager, death is for someone else and your on Mallee roads, it is bloody good fun.
Well c@t, Albo as a Senior Left MP and faction leader would have met and interacted with Ian McDonald Mp on a regular basis? What of it?
Minns as Assistant Secretary would have dealt with Clements Secretary daily? How is Minns connected to the unfortunate events involving Clements? What of it?
What are you getting at? I don’t think there is anything out of the ordinary in this .
Is it possible not to be ‘connected’ with some crook if you hang out in NSW politics ?
This shit HAS to stop!
https://www.nambuccaguardian.com.au/story/6246568/learn-about-god-or-sit-outside-in-the-cold-at-nambucca-high/
Lars Von Trier @ #1070 Saturday, June 29th, 2019 – 6:19 pm
That’s a simplistic analysis.
Put it this way. Why did Kaila Murnain prevail upon Jodi McKay to run against Chris Minns? Kaila wants Labor to win. She knows things that led her to the conclusion that Labor needed someone to lead who didn’t come with baggage that could be used against them by the Coalition.
Didn’t Minns set up his office in a cafe down the road when Jaime refused to go?
poroti @ #1071 Saturday, June 29th, 2019 – 6:20 pm
Speaking of simplistic nonsense.
Is it possible not to be connected to some crook (WA Inc) if you hang out in WA Labor politics? See how silly it looks when you put the shoe on the other foot?
Hasn’t Jamie been co-ordinating Chris Minns’ campaign?
In retrospect it’s interesting that Luke Foley supported Jamie to the end. Jamie forced a kiss from one of his staff but Foley put his hand in a journalist’s underpants without invitation. Foley’s assault occurred 18 months after Clement’s. You would think he might have learnt something
Will Clements return? Is that what you’re saying c@t? Voldemort returns?
I guess Jodi has the kudos of probably not accepting a bribe from the Boganairre
(Probably not because there was any suggestion she was on the take but because it’s not clear what the Boganairre was suggesting)
Lars Von Trier @ #1080 Saturday, June 29th, 2019 – 6:36 pm
I did ask but got no reply.
https://www.newcastleherald.com.au/story/462996/jodi-mckays-hard-yards/?cs=7573
Interesting article – apparently McKay’s partner (at least then) was the COS to Tony Kelly ( who was unfavourably mentioned in ICAC with Tripodi). Does she have kids?
Has the DPP decided to prosecute Kelly and Tripoli? I haven’t seen anything for months. One of KKs finer moments as Premier was killing their forged cabinet brief
11,000 votes at 10 seconds per vote (pick up, open envelope, check name, put in pile, add tocount) –> 110,000 seconds –> 30.5 work hours. Add 20% for supervision / checking, contingencies, comfort breaks –> 37 work hours.
If there are 10 counters, it would take 3.5 to 4 hours.
Oakeshott country says:
Saturday, June 29, 2019 at 6:33 pm
In retrospect it’s interesting that Luke Foley supported Jamie to the end. Jamie forced a kiss from one of his staff but Foley put his hand in a journalist’s underpants without invitation. Foley’s assault occurred 18 months after Clement’s. You would think he might have learnt something
_____________________________________________
Surely federal intervention in the NSW branch must be on the cards?
Oakeshott Country says:
Saturday, June 29, 2019 at 6:48 pm
Has the DPP decided to prosecute Kelly and Tripoli? I haven’t seen anything for months. One of KKs finer moments as Premier was killing their forged cabinet brief
___________________________________
Don’t forget the McDonald and Obeid re-trial is yet to happen as is the big Obeid trial.
While the trials mean another 2 years of bad news for NSW ALP watching them will be gripping . I feel like a moth drawn to a flame.
I have noticed a lack of “Albo made a speech” mocking from the Shortenites.
Went to my local tonight expecting to watch a rugger match, only to find out (based on hearsay) that it hadn’t paid its Foxtel subscription. Nonetheless, the Spanish mackerel was nice, even though a bit greasy. What’s more, Saturday’s RU is not telecast on free-to-air. I blame Rupes for this state of affairs. Pneumonia in the elderly is invariably fatal. Praise the Lord that’s Jerry’s on hand:
(Posted previously, but a good laugh.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1yPH0mCQagY
Confessions @ #866 Saturday, June 29th, 2019 – 8:27 am
Her arms are tiny!
Well, James Murdoch is using the money the family got from selling the movie business and other assets to Walt Disney, to go into future tech:
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/james-murdoch-bets-on-drones-after-leaving-the-family-business-20190629-p522h9.html
Oakeshott Country:
[‘While the trials mean another 2 years of bad news for NSW ALP watching them will be gripping . I feel like a moth drawn to a flame.’]
You seem to delight in Labor’s woes.
I delight in the crooks who ran the Labor Party being brought to Justice. It is a pity that this is playing out in public because there was no process within the party to stop the institutional corruption.
I guess you would have preferred for it to continue
Although really pissed off tonight, I must watch my pints and quarts.
[‘I guess you would have preferred for it to continue.’]
No – not at all. Please don’t draw such ridiculous presumptions.
Remind me again which is the corrupt party in power right now? And i think I can safely say that, especially if your surname begins with a ‘T’ and ends with an ‘R’.
It’s not such a ridiculous presumption for someone who called Wyatt an Uncle Tom
Sources from both camps believe Ms McKay is likely to emerge the winner, although it will be very close and the 50 members of caucus are almost evenly divided in their support.
Now the race is on for the position of Labor Deputy Leader and Leader and Deputy Leader in the Upper House.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/new-labor-leader-will-be-put-to-the-test-as-soon-as-elected-20190628-p5229i.html
fatality data is available to May here.
https://www.bitre.gov.au/statistics/safety/fatal_road_crash_database.aspx
There are 144 records for Victoria.
If you exclude major cites ( Melbourne) your down to 85
If you exclude records where the speed limit was known and 80 or less 74 records.
Exclude national or state highways 48 records
Those over 70 ( not likely to be doing the speed limit.
We are down to 40.
Assume cyclists were doing less than 80
Down to 38
Exclude the data not recorder down to 35.
Take a look at these.
22 drivers of theses 18 were males 6 females.
8 motorcycle riders -all male – In my youth we called them Temporary Australians, nothing much has changed.
3 passangers
1 pedestrian
1 other
The 35 are spread throughout the state, hard to claim it is city slickers.
10 local roads.
None over Christmas, one over Easter.
14 at night.
Of the males: 7 at night, in that set are all the young ones. I think most of us played chicken with Darwin when young.
Of the day time set the youngest was 31.
So that is the set they are after. Male, driving in the day and over 30.
I wonder how to you find an estimate of the car suicide rate?
https://www.thecourier.com.au/story/5857321/suicide-rate-continues-to-plague-rural-areas/
How many fell asleep? 80Km/h is sure to increase that number.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25581328
If we assume only local roads are dirt. Three.
I think Ms Seymour is on the wrong tram.
Andrew Clennell @aclennell
3m
Jodi McKay expected to win. Said to be ahead. Story on theaustralian.com.au shortly