We’re still yet to have a new poll of federal voting intention after the election, for whatever that may still be worth, but I would imagine Newspoll will be breaking its drought to mark next week’s resumption of parliament. We do, however, have one of the Lowy Institute’s occasional surveys on attitudes to foreign affairs, the results of which are attractively presented on the organisation’s website.
The headline topic of the poll is Sino-American relations, and the results point to a sharp decline in trust towards China, which a clear majority of respondents rated the “world’s leading economic power”. Even clearer majorities, of around three-quarters, believed China was pursuing regional domination, and that Australia should do more to resist its military activities even if it affected our too-close economic relationship.
However, the poll also finds a further decline in trust in the United States, to add to the body-blow it took when Donald Trump was elected. Of particular interest here are the age breakdowns. Whereas there was little to distinguish the age cohorts in their positive view of the US on Obama’s watch, respondents in their youth and early middle-age now take a substantially more negative view than older ones.
Relatedly, the highly negative and worsening view of Trump personally, while evident across all age cohorts, is most pronounced among the young. This carries through to a head-to-head question on whether respondents should prioritise strong relations with the United States or China, with a majority of those aged 18-30 favouring China, and a large majority of the 60-plus cohort favouring the United States.
Beyond that, the survey offers no end of interesting material:
• Respondents were asked about their satisfaction with democracy – which, one often reads, is in freefall throughout the western world, particularly among the young. However, the Lowy Institute’s yearly tracking of this question going back to 2012 doesn’t show any such thing. If anything, there seems to be a slight trend in favour of the response that “democracy is preferable to any other kind of government”, which is up three on last year at 65%. While the young are less sold on this notion than the old, there has been a solid improving trend among the 18-to-30 cohort, with this year’s result up six on last year’s to 55%, a new high over the course of the series.
• Evaluations were sought on a limited sample of foreign leaders, specifically concerning whether they could be trusted in world affairs. Donald Trump ranked down alongside Vladimir Putin, while Jacinda Ardern recorded near-unanimous acclaim, with 88% expressing either a lot of or some confidence. New Zealand was rated “Australia’s best friend” out of six available options by 59%, up from six since 2017.
• Brexit was rated a bad thing for the United Kingdom by 62%, a bad thing for the European Union by 70%, and a bad thing for the West in general by 58%. The UK’s rating on a “feelings thermometer” fell six points, to 76.
• Concern about climate change maintained an upward trajectory, with 61% favouring action “even if this involves significant costs”. The long-range trend on this question going back to 2006 suggests climate change is less of a problem when Labor are in office.
• Views on immigration were less negative than last year, after a significant hardening of opinion between 2014 and 2018. However, the immigration rate was still held to be too high by 48% of all respondents, and a very large majority of older ones.
The survey was conducted online and by telephone from March 12 to 25 from a sample of 2130.
The second part of today’s lesson relates to Senate preference flows, from which we can obtain no end of information thanks to the Australian Electoral Commission’s publication of the data files containing the preference order for every single ballot paper. By contrast, we’re still waiting on the two-party preference splits the AEC eventually publishes for each party in the House of Representatives. There will be a lot of analysis of this information here over the coming weeks, but for starters I offer the following:
This shows, from left to right, the rate of voters’ adherence to their favoured party’s how-to-vote-card; the rate at which minor party voters’ preference orders favoured Labor over the Coalition or vice-versa, or neither in the event that they did not number either party (“two-party”); and a similar three-way measure that throws the Greens into the mix (“three-party”).
This shows that United Australia Party voters heavily favoured the Coalition over Labor, but not because they were following the party’s how-to-vote cards, a course followed by around 0.1% of the total electorate. One Nation preferences were only slightly less favourable to the Coalition, and even fewer of the party’s voters followed the card. Since One Nation’s preferences in the lower house split almost evenly in 2016, out of the 15 seats where they ran, it seems safe to assume a shift in One Nation preferences accounted for a substantial chunk of the two-party swing to the Coalition. I will calculate Senate preference flows from 2016 for comparison over the next few days.
Mr Denmore @ #447 Thursday, June 27th, 2019 – 8:03 pm
The problem with that particular conspiracy theory is that I don’t think anyone, least of all anyone in the U.S., cares enough about Australia to go to that much effort.
Well, maybe Murdoch.
The RWNJ’s have taken over everywhere else. I think because of astroturfing and Russian trolls and biased moderation, but after that election result, who knows? Maybe 90% of everybody else really is as rabidly conservative as commentators on other news, politics, and current-events sites seem on face value.
Mr Denmore, a good place to start would be to actually read what’s written on these pages before flapping your yap. Over the past few pages you will find analysis of preference flows, explanations of Senate distributions, news on preselections — and very little about polls. Except, yes, some analysis of how they performed and where they went wrong, just like they have in the States.
C
Not a problem. All the rest might be a gaggle of venal, incompetent, thieving thugs, but you can trust every single thing that Mr Dutton says.
OC
Some suicide stats for the same -sex attraction demography.
https://www.beyondblue.org.au/docs/default-source/default-document-library/bw0258-lgbti-mental-health-and-suicide-2013-2nd-edition.pdf?sfvrsn=2
A quote (plea) from a gay youngster, in the Beyond Blue link posted above:
“Knowing what was facing me religion-wise and with my family I was pretty suicidal between the ages of about 16 and 19 … Not so much because of people’s homophobia but because of feeling totally trapped between a religion/family that didn’t accept homosexuality and being who I was”
(“Peggy”, aged 20, in Hillier et al. 2008)
Another quote from same source:
”The elevated risk of mental ill-health and suicidality among LGBTI people is not due to sexuality, sex or gender identity in and of themselves but rather due to discrimination and exclusion as key determinants of health.24 This is sometimes referred to as minority stress.25”
BK:
Up here on the Goldie, a new, luxury aged-care facility is being widely adverstised. It purportedly has great views, plush suites, caring staff, etc. I wonder for how long will the plush suites remain plush after high-care patients shit, piss and spew. Nevertheless, there’s always the vista, and the rather large bond.
It is truly a terrible thing to contemplate – suicide and suicidal ideation. If ScoMo does anything addressing strategies and plans for youth suicide prevention is a truly worthwhile and noble goal.
Psyclaw
Just had a quick squiz, and I have no idea about the statistical backing for the numbers reported, but there are terrible numbers in the report you link.
Boerwar @ #453 Thursday, June 27th, 2019 – 6:12 pm
😆
It would be great if the Australian Christian Lobby teamed up with a high profile personality to raise $3 million for a social justice initiative – perhaps a trial of a Job Guarantee, or a funding boost for Legal Aid services across Australia.
Why are they so concerned about this so-called right to tweet that gay people are going to Hell?
I wonder if Buzz Aldrin will do a “tell-all” before he dies.
Advice, William, as a former journo, rethink the moniker ‘Poll Bludger’. The opinion polls are now redundant. No one believes them anymore. The system is buggered. No one tells the truth.
Mr Denmore says:
Thursday, June 27, 2019 at 8:24 pm
Advice, William, as a former journo, rethink the moniker ‘Poll Bludger’. The opinion polls are now redundant. No one believes them anymore. The system is buggered. No one tells the truth.
_____________________________________________________
What do you now? Public affairs for the banks?
‘Lars Von Trier says:
Thursday, June 27, 2019 at 8:20 pm
It is truly a terrible thing to contemplate – suicide and suicidal ideation. If ScoMo does anything addressing strategies and plans for youth suicide prevention is a truly worthwhile and noble goal.’
True. You are quite right to condemn Morrison for his contribution to six years of swingeing neglect (I am being kind here) of the mental health of LGBTIQ folk. This six years included cutting hundreds of millions in program funding from the group with what is reputed to be the highest suicide rate in the world: Indigenous young people. You would have heard Mr Morrison campaign strongly on this issue during the election just past.
Morrison could restore trust in our democracy by admitting that this is a Government of thugs, thieves and liars and announcing that he is dissolving the Government. This would help the mental health of lots of people straight away. After all, there is nothing quite as dispiriting as the thought that $600 million buys you a pathetic Australian Government. Shocking ROI!
But I doubt Morrison will. As for Morrison and his pals helping LGBTIQ folk, that fester of old white male power mongers won’t even share it properly with hetero females.
Good pick up, Lars. Well done!
Nicholas
I think you’ll find the concept was invented, in Australia, in 1931. There is a short summary here:
– https://trove.nla.gov.au/newspaper/article/2367087
It alludes to what had occurred in France, which was slightly different. Of course it was not put into practice due to the combination of the Country party and Jack Lang, but various ministers in the Menzies government later acknowledged it was right: “we had no way of knowing at the time that … was right’
https://learningenglish.voanews.com/a/apollo-astronauts-celebrate-50-years-since-first-moon-landing/4973330.html
The conspiracy and cover up lives Boerwar!
Magnificent!
Psyclaw @ #433 Thursday, June 27th, 2019 – 7:40 pm
I considered buying the Ebook but thought again and will follow the TV presentation. How the apparent pregnancy plays out will be interesting.
Go well.😲
My vote is for keeping Poll Bludger.
It is one of the few public places left where people DO tell the truth.
As well as the usual lies, of course.
poll [ pohl ]
the registering of votes, as at an election.
https://www.ozy.com/true-story/how-i-faked-the-apollo-moon-landing/68714
Some brave souls like Boerwar are however prepared to tell the truth!
Magnificent!
I’ve just looked at the CNN website and came across a photo of the man and his young daughter after they drowned trying to enter the US.
Then there is a headline “Trump hails Australia’s immigration posters warning migrants away”.
This whole thing is just so horrible. The question is “who cares”?
Who cares! BoreWar cares! Thats who!
Magnificent!
I really should bag Dutton more often on here. Just to let people know I’m a good person.
Psychlaw:
You make a lot a sense. I don’t agree with some of your posts, but when it comes to suicide, everything else pales – kin, friends never really recovering from same. Birthdays, anniversaries, Christmas, any celebration adversely affected by the loss of a relative, a friend to these insidious, manytimes preventable acts of desperation, made all the worse with the Christian nutters, examplified by Folau, his nutter supporters.
nath says:
Thursday, June 27, 2019 at 8:35 pm
I really should bag Dutton more often on here. Just to let people know I’m a good person.
______________________
I feel you should take a stand about wishy washy pescatarians too!
citizen:
If it’s the same photo I’m thinking of I posted the story of their drowning the other day after it happened.
It struck me at the time that the difference with America’s immigration issues is that the media have full access, even in detention centres and camps. Unlike in Australia where media access is severely curtailed. Hence we don’t know half of what is going on in detention centres and camps our govt is responsible for.
Lars Von Trier, ‘public affairs for banks’? You better have a good lawyer mate, because I’ll sue your arse off.
On suicide. Anyone seen the doco on YouTube re Aaron Schwartz? the young co founder of reddit hounded to death by overzealous US federal prosecutors for downloading JSTOR articles. Just so sad.
William Bowe @ #469 Thursday, June 27th, 2019 – 8:29 pm
Perhaps a name change could be considered when what is now referred to as the Government becomes known as Whatever Our Elected Representatives actually do.
Q. Does anybody know what the Gummint is doing?
I’ve never actually liked the name, but it’s far too late to do anything about it now. It would be like when Sherbet changed their name to Highway because they were worried American radio programmers would think it referred to cocaine. It was all downhill for them from there.
WB just do what KFC did and call it PB.
I like the name of the blog. It’s unique.
That’s not a bad idea actually.
or you could call it “C@t’s Corner”.
William Bowe @ #482 Thursday, June 27th, 2019 – 8:44 pm
Don’t do it. Don’t go bland.
We have been binging on ‘Trapped’. Nordic Noir police procedural combined with a dash of Days of Our Lives and set in Iceland. I understand that there has been a recent decline in tourist numbers to Iceland. Some are blaming the collapse of a low cost airline.
I blame ‘Trapped’.
One interesting point I picked up from ‘Trapped’ is that day-to-day vernacular Icelandic is remarkably similar to Ouwe Westfriese. I found I could translate most of the dialogue for OH.
Once you have a brand it’s always a bad idea to change it.
So pollsters stuffed up this time around. I don’t see why that is William’s fault or why that should reflect on the name of his blog.
nath:
[‘I really should bag Dutton more often on here. Just to let people know I’m a good person.’]
Why change hores after they’ve left the gate? Indeed, you’d sound phony.
Why change hores after they’ve left the gate? Indeed, you’d sound phony.
______________________________
well if there’s ever an absence of Dutton abuse I’m ready to step up.
Sherbert Hillsong-Bludger covers most of the bases.
Mavis Davis says:
Thursday, June 27, 2019 at 8:48 pm
Why change hores after they’ve left the gate? Indeed, you’d sound phony.
No integrity in changing hores after they’ve left the gate. Good point.
WB:
Don’t change anything. I mean it wasn’t your fault that pollsters got it wrong, including the poll of polls.
Maybe just a monthly update of the Sawford formula would suffice.
Boerwar:
[‘My vote is for keeping Poll Bludger.’]
I second your motion.
If nath turned his inestimable talents to researching the sins of Dutton it would be celebrated, I’m sure.
Good night all.
Lizzie
says:
Thursday, June 27, 2019 at 8:59 pm
If nath turned his inestimable talents to researching the sins of Dutton it would be celebrated, I’m sure.
_____________________________
Dutton is awful. But everyone knows that. Shorten was hiding in plain sight, he needed some light shone upon him. If I actually thought that my campaign against Shorten on here impacted on the election one iota I might actually feel a little bad.
Here is an interesting left analysis of Littlefinger’s failure:
https://www.jacobinmag.com/2019/05/australia-labor-party-bill-shorten-third-way
Night Boerwar.