Federal election plus five weeks

An already strong result for government in the Senate may be about to get even better, as Cory Bernardi eyes the exit. And yet more on the great pollster failure.

I had a paywalled article in Crikey on the conclusion of the Senate election result, which among other things had this to say:

The Coalition went into the election with 31 senators out of 76 and comes out with 35 — and may be about to go one better if there is anything behind suggestions that Cory Bernardi is set to rejoin the Liberal Party. That would leave the government needing the support of only three crossbenchers to win contested votes.

That could be achieved with the two votes of the Centre Alliance plus that of Jacqui Lambie, who is newly restored to the Senate after falling victim to the Section 44 imbroglio in late 2017. Lambie appears to be co-operating closely with the Centre Alliance, having long enjoyed a warm relationship with the party’s founder Nick Xenophon.

Such a voting bloc would relieve the Morrison government of the need to dirty its hands in dealing with One Nation — though it could certainly do that any time the Centre Alliance members felt inspired to take liberal positions on such issues as asylum seekers and expansion of the national security state.

Since then, talk of Cory Bernardi rejoining the Liberal Party has moved on to suggestions he will leave parliament altogether, creating a casual vacancy that would stand to be filled by the Liberal Party. Bernardi announced he would deregister his Australian Conservatives party on Thursday following its failure to make an impression at the election, and told Sky News the next day that it “might be best for me to leave parliament in the next six months”, although he also said he was “unresolved”. Paul Starick of The Advertiser reports that sources on both sides of the SA Liberal Party’s factional divide say the front-runner would be Georgina Downer, daughter of the former Foreign Minister and twice-unsuccessful lower house candidate for Mayo. The party’s Senate tickets usually pair moderate and Right faction members in the top two positions, and Downer would take a place for the Right that was filled in 2016 by Bernardi, with the other incumbent up for re-election in 2022 being moderate-aligned Simon Birmingham.

In other news, Simon Jackman and Luke Mansillo of the University of Sydney have posted slides from a detailed conference presentation on the great opinion poll failure. Once you get past the technical detail on the first few slides, this shows trend measures that attempt to ascertain the true underlying position throughout the parliamentary term, based on both polling and the actual results from both 2016 and 2019. This suggests the Coalition had its nose in front in Malcolm Turnbull’s last months, and that Labor only led by around 51-49 after he was dumped. An improving trend for the Coalition began in December and accelerated during the April-May campaign period. Also included is an analysis of pollster herding effects, which were particularly pronounced for the Coalition primary vote during the campaign period. Labor and Greens primary vote readings were more dispersed, in large part due to Ipsos’s pecularity of having low primary votes for Labor (accurately, as it turned out) and high ones for the Greens (rather less so).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,716 comments on “Federal election plus five weeks”

Comments Page 6 of 35
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  3. “So now Psyclaw admits Setka did denigrate/ abuse Rose Batty…….”

    Seriously C@t, you do need help from a Remedial Reading teacher, or some course on comprehension of the written word.

    I made no such admission. There is no evidence that he did so.

    Please stop posting your wish fulfilment dreams. They are not real life, you know.

    How many posts with totally wrong info have you now posted here in the last fortnight. Must be up to 7 or 8 now.

  4. Simon² Katich® @ #242 Sunday, June 23rd, 2019 – 4:00 pm

    – – The government has been lying about the strength of the economy – its lack of policy is hurting us.
    Greg Jericho – –
    He is assuming the lack of policy is accidental. Shock therapy needs a trigger.

    ‘A paralysed Govt led by a shonky salesman.’

    That type of simple messaging should be on every Labor politicians lips when in front of a camera and all over social media every week again and again for three years.

  6. I’m sitting in Jakarta airport, looking out the window at the smoggiest sky I’ve ever seen.

    A plane just took off and it disappeared in a few seconds.

    How can you live here?

  7. C@t

    Psyclaw says:
    Sunday, June 23, 2019 at 12:27 pm
    Victoria

    Yes, I too have info on good authority.

    A friend whose cousin lives in Melbourne has told me that the cousin was talking to his best mate’s mother who is a cleaner at the building next door to the CFMMEU office. A fellow cleaner who actually cleans the CFMMEU office reports that a clerical person in the office told her that she reckons Setka did bad mouth Ms Batty.

    You now the pack drill …… no names, no numbers …… nod nod, wink wink.

    You know what happens when people only read the headlines……….. They get egg on face.

    Perhaps you might now re-read my “Setka dun it” post. Let me know if you want to know the CFMMEU cleaner’s name, or the names of any of my cousins etc

  8. briefly,

    I am surprised you finished reading the article after this:

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jun/23/culture-shock-politics-upended-in-era-of-identity

    If Labor is to build a constituency based on socially and environmentally progressive ideas then it has to aim to win government not by splitting the difference between culturally backward-looking voters in regional Queensland and forward-looking voters in the cities, but by winning progressive voters in traditional Liberal party seats.

    That means no longer buying into the demonisation of the Greens, who are its natural allies in building a progressive future. After all, the Greens’ platform shows stronger commitment to social justice than Labor’s does, and Labor’s climate change policy is now (at last) based on the science and therefore close to the Greens’ one.

  10. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jun/23/labors-jim-chalmers-says-workers-on-200000-a-year-are-not-the-top-end-of-town

    Labor’s senior leadership is doubling down on the claim $200,000 a year no longer represents the “top end of town”.

    The shadow treasurer, Jim Chalmers, said Labor’s priority remained on helping to pass increased tax offsets for low and middle-class workers but echoed his leader’s comments that a $200,000 wage was “aspirational” and not necessarily wealthy.

    The “top end of town” can be whatever you want it to be to rationalise your world view as the ‘party of the workers’.

    ALP – the party of the workers – not really.

  11. well the ‘top end of town’ wouldn’t really show up on income statistics. What tax they do pay is likely to be Capital Gains Tax.

  12. If you’re on $200k + you don’t need an $11,000 tax cut and you don’t need any Government assistance.

  13. Socialist Alliance statement National Executive released this statement on June 17:

    Defend the CFMMEU — but Setka should resign

    https://www.greenleft.org.au/content/defend-cfmmeu-setka-should-resign

    The Australian Labor Party has done little to undo the anti-union laws that successive governments have introduced, dating back to the Bob Hawke and Malcolm Fraser years, and that worsened under John Howard and Tony Abbott.

    We do not support any laws that remove democratically elected union leaders nor those that deregister unions.

    It is very clear that the Labor factions, the ruling class media and the Coalition are using the controversy surround CFMMEU Victoria-Tasmania Secretary John Sekta for their own anti-union purposes, in an attempt to weaken or even destroy the union.
    :::
    The Socialist Alliance absolutely rejects the Coalition’s proposal to impose a “fit and proper person” test. We know that the legal system is stacked against workers and that bad laws have to be broken to advance workers’ rights.

    We also reject Labor leader Anthony Albanese’s interventions against Setka. They are clearly motivated by a right-wing, anti-union push within Labor that will increase the attacks on unions.

    They show the dangers of union funding and integration into Labor, which believes it can intervene in union affairs at will.

  14. You really are a piece of work, psyclaw. Hmm, so do tell me how I am supposed to comprehend this statement from you:

    My only argument, supported by many here, is that on the specific matter of denigrating Ms Batty, there is no evidence and in fact there is contra evidence.

    Psyclaw @ #1364 Saturday, June 22nd, 2019 – 9:18 pm

    And how that correlates with this:

    Victoria (AnonBlock)
    Sunday, June 23rd, 2019 – 10:54 am
    Comment #119
    Psyclaw

    I have it on impeccable sources that Setka did in fact bad mouth rosie batty at meeting. And it included colourful language

    Do tell how my inadequate powers of comprehension have failed me here?

    Or are you just continuing to be a spiteful piece of work towards me? 🙂

  15. Pegasus @ #263 Sunday, June 23rd, 2019 – 6:17 pm

    Socialist Alliance statement National Executive released this statement on June 17:

    Defend the CFMMEU — but Setka should resign

    https://www.greenleft.org.au/content/defend-cfmmeu-setka-should-resign

    The Australian Labor Party has done little to undo the anti-union laws that successive governments have introduced, dating back to the Bob Hawke and Malcolm Fraser years, and that worsened under John Howard and Tony Abbott.

    We do not support any laws that remove democratically elected union leaders nor those that deregister unions.

    It is very clear that the Labor factions, the ruling class media and the Coalition are using the controversy surround CFMMEU Victoria-Tasmania Secretary John Sekta for their own anti-union purposes, in an attempt to weaken or even destroy the union.
    :::
    The Socialist Alliance absolutely rejects the Coalition’s proposal to impose a “fit and proper person” test. We know that the legal system is stacked against workers and that bad laws have to be broken to advance workers’ rights.

    We also reject Labor leader Anthony Albanese’s interventions against Setka. They are clearly motivated by a right-wing, anti-union push within Labor that will increase the attacks on unions.

    They show the dangers of union funding and integration into Labor, which believes it can intervene in union affairs at will.

    Well, that’s just bullshit. No wonder no one takes the Socialist Alliance seriously. Or is this just The Greens, via their stooges in the Socialist Alliance, preparing the ground to accept the CFFMEU’s money?

  17. Nicholas
    Whether a budget surplus is good or bad isn’t the point that I was getting at but I was pointing out that we have a government that has made achieving a surplus this year as an article of faith despite there being question marks with the economic assumption used to support that surplus.

    It is more complicated that just pressing key strokes, as I’ve previously pointed Bill Mitchell doesn’t appear to have the qualifications or experience to fully understand how governments are funded, he clearly has limited understanding of the bond market if he really believes governments can just eliminate those bond payments and overlooks that governments use bonds as a source of income and the 10 year yield is used across a number of financial calculations and it ignores the fact that people need to buy things in other currencies.

  20. Pegasus @ #269 Sunday, June 23rd, 2019 – 6:25 pm

    Labor – the stooges of the “top end of town”.

    ….

    Thanks to Shorten/Bowen ineptitude.

    It’s Albanese’s task now to try and repair the immense damage.

    To do that, he must engage the public first.

    Give the Govt enough rope……. then hammer home with simple messaging – ‘A paralysed Govt led by a shonky salesman’.

  21. Pegasus says:
    Sunday, June 23, 2019 at 6:25 pm
    Labor – the stooges of the “top end of town”.
    The Coalition = “the top end of town”.
    —————————
    If we want to know who the top end of town is, we don’t look at payslips, we look at the Melbourne club membership list or the Scotch Collage alumni or at certain surnames. These people may be on high income jobs but many of them earn the bulk of their income from investments. A person on $200k is clearly financially well off but they are not necessarily the top end of town.

  23. Michael Rowland has responded to criticism of that question he put to Chalmers re ‘politics of envy’. Cassidy has only been gone for 2 weeks but it feels he retired months ago.

    Michael RowlandVerified account@mjrowland68
    6h6 hours ago
    To those getting exercised about this, I was giving @JEChalmers a chance to respond directly to a claim by @MathiasCormann (played straight before the interview started). Only seemed fair. Thanks for all the feedback! #Insiders

  24. Confessions @ #273 Sunday, June 23rd, 2019 – 6:57 pm

    Michael Rowland has responded to criticism of that question he put to Chalmers re ‘politics of envy’. Cassidy has only been gone for 2 weeks but it feels he retired months ago.

    Michael RowlandVerified account@mjrowland68
    6h6 hours ago
    To those getting exercised about this, I was giving @JEChalmers a chance to respond directly to a claim by @MathiasCormann (played straight before the interview started). Only seemed fair. Thanks for all the feedback! #Insiders

    So…Matthias Cormann feeds Michael Rowland the lines and Rowland duly and dutifully follows them up with Labor?

    !!!

  25. This has been going on for months, making a mockery of those claiming McManus and co have only recently latched onto trying to force Setka out. And incidentally this article was retweeted by George Megalogenis with the tag of it being “a terrific piece of old school journalism from one of the very best reporters at the Oz”.

    Sally McManus and Michele O’Neil were on a train to Geneva, their stomachs churning as they read claims about John Setka pushing a woman down stairs, kicking down a door and throwing an iPad at her face.

    The report detailed­ how Setka allegedly sent 45 abusive text ­messages to the woman in one night, calling her a “weak f..ken piece of shit” and a “c..t just like the rest of (her) family”.

    ACTU secretary McManus, who had been dealing with the Setka crisis behind closed doors since January, told colleagues she and her president, O’Neil, felt physically ill reading the claims in Melbourne’s Herald Sun and the situation had become “a rolling disaster of Sopranos proportions”.

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/disaster-of-sopranos-proportions-the-setka-tipping-point-for-actu/news-story/dc279da1d864b52ad7ee0fa3e8b05acc

  27. Martin Iles, currently the boss of ACL, was just now The Project trying to justify Folau’s cash grab on Go Fund Me.

    He didn’t sound very convincing.

  28. C@tmomma @ #274 Sunday, June 23rd, 2019 – 7:01 pm

    Confessions @ #273 Sunday, June 23rd, 2019 – 6:57 pm

    Michael Rowland has responded to criticism of that question he put to Chalmers re ‘politics of envy’. Cassidy has only been gone for 2 weeks but it feels he retired months ago.

    Michael RowlandVerified account@mjrowland68
    6h6 hours ago
    To those getting exercised about this, I was giving @JEChalmers a chance to respond directly to a claim by @MathiasCormann (played straight before the interview started). Only seemed fair. Thanks for all the feedback! #Insiders

    So…Matthias Cormann feeds Michael Rowland the lines and Rowland duly and dutifully follows them up with Labor?

    !!!

    Ease up and look at it from another angle ie. proper journalism. Rowland was simply giving Chalmers the opportunity to shoot down Cormanns comments.

  29. If you want to be critical of Insiders then perhaps call them out on their failure to attend to Angus Taylor/Josh Frydenberg reported shenanigans last week in the Guardian.

  30. Ease up and look at it from another angle ie. proper journalism. Rowland was simply giving Chalmers the opportunity to shoot down Cormanns comments.
    _____
    Then he should have asked, “Mathias Cormann has just said that . . . .

  31. BK @ #280 Sunday, June 23rd, 2019 – 7:50 pm

    Ease up and look at it from another angle ie. proper journalism. Rowland was simply giving Chalmers the opportunity to shoot down Cormanns comments.
    _____
    Then he should have asked, “Mathias Cormann has just said that . . . .

    They had a clip of Cormann leading into it.

  32. Chalmers should be welcoming those questions because it gives him a chance to put forward an alternative, this tax cut is a desperate attempt to save the economy and this government’s economic credibility.

  36. C@tmomma says:
    Sunday, June 23, 2019 at 5:02 pm
    Confessions @ #247 Sunday, June 23rd, 2019 – 4:19 pm

    Only Nimbin?!

    Sky News AustraliaVerified account@SkyNewsAust
    46m46 minutes ago
    .@PeterDutton_MP on the Medevac legislation: Two doctors from Nimbin can bring a case to the government, and the law requires for that person to come here.

    MORE: https://bit.ly/2BuFqi1 #WeekendLive

    But have they? THAT is the question.
    ————————–
    I strongly doubt that there are two doctors in Nimbin. It is a very small town.

  39. Yes the statement of fact that Labor was playing the politics of envy was simply ridiculous. How is it politics of envy to want to bring an end to unsustainable and wholly unjustifiable tax concessions to wealthy and/or asset rich Australians?

    There were other things that Rowland missed, letting Chalmers off the hook, as Crabb did the week before with whomever it was she was interviewing. I said before that he’s obviously spent too long in breakfast TV mode, which has blunted his ability to think on his feet.

    And then there was the Angus Taylor revelations that weren’t even touched on, as Lenore Taylor mentioned. Corruption is this government’s achilles heel, and the media is doing taxpayers and voters no favour by choosing to gloss over these revelations that continue to add up.

  41. Here to report that I have wasted an entire day, but no matter how hard I try, I am incapable of tickling my “prostrate” gland with my tongue.
    It just doesn’t quite reach.
    Should I perhaps attempt the manoeuvre whilst lying in a prone position?

  45. Steve777 says:
    Sunday, June 23, 2019 at 8:25 pm

    …”I am not sure what Not Sure is on about and I don’t think I want to know”…

    You should ask Poll Bludger’s resident GP.

    Although, if the bloke can’t even spell the word, I would advise against permitting him to stick a semi-lubricated digit up there to check of everything is ok.

  47. Pegasus says:
    Sunday, June 23, 2019 at 6:02 pm
    briefly,

    I am surprised you finished reading the article after this:

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jun/23/culture-shock-politics-upended-in-era-of-identity

    If Labor is to build a constituency based on socially and environmentally progressive ideas then it has to aim to win government not by splitting the difference between culturally backward-looking voters in regional Queensland and forward-looking voters in the cities, but by winning progressive voters in traditional Liberal party seats.

    That means no longer buying into the demonisation of the Greens, who are its natural allies in building a progressive future. After all, the Greens’ platform shows stronger commitment to social justice than Labor’s does, and Labor’s climate change policy is now (at last) based on the science and therefore close to the Greens’ one.

    The author’s analysis is not adequate in several respects. I don’t have time to unpick it. I posted it because it’s interesting and well-written, not because I agree with it in every particular.

    The author is naive when it comes to the Greens. He thinks they’re well-intentioned and trustworthy possible partners for Labor. He’s mistaken. The Greens detest Labor. They hope for
    Labor’s political obliteration.

  48. Briefly
    I respect your passion but I think you are wrong to say the ALP are stuffed, sure they lost an election they were strongly expected to win but they were in a far deeper hole in the 1990s when they looked finished in Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia but the ALP was able to turn that around and they did that by focusing on the issues that matter. Federal elections are fought on federal issues, not state issues so the ALP needs to focus on federal issues and they can be competitive.

  49. This is on the front page of this week’s free local paper here.

    The final count for votes in this seat at last month’s election was made official last week, with a close battle for fourth place coming down to seven votes.

    In the end, Pauline Hanson’s One Nation candidate Dean Smith edged out the Greens’ candidate Nelson Blake Gilmour to finish runner-up behind the major parties.

    Mr Smith received 7252 votes to Mr Gilmour’s 7245.

    The pair were both first-time candidates.

    Mr Smith said he was “incredibly surprised” to finish fourth in his party’s first contest for the O’Connor electorate, and in a vote he entered only weeks before polling day.

    “Beating the Greens at the ballot box was an awesome feat,” he said.

    https://thewest.com.au/news/albany-advertiser/seven-votes-the-difference-ng-b881235928z

    The Greens suffered a 2% swing against the party, and their candidate here blamed himself for their failure.

  50. I see that Nimbin has plumbed new sordid depths.

    The latest is a sinister plot by the entire Nimbin corrupt, nefarious and stoned medical profession to perforate Straya’s borders by abusing the so-called Medevac humanitarian legislation in order to let in Ruandan axe murderers.

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