I had a paywalled article in Crikey on the conclusion of the Senate election result, which among other things had this to say:
The Coalition went into the election with 31 senators out of 76 and comes out with 35 — and may be about to go one better if there is anything behind suggestions that Cory Bernardi is set to rejoin the Liberal Party. That would leave the government needing the support of only three crossbenchers to win contested votes.
That could be achieved with the two votes of the Centre Alliance plus that of Jacqui Lambie, who is newly restored to the Senate after falling victim to the Section 44 imbroglio in late 2017. Lambie appears to be co-operating closely with the Centre Alliance, having long enjoyed a warm relationship with the party’s founder Nick Xenophon.
Such a voting bloc would relieve the Morrison government of the need to dirty its hands in dealing with One Nation — though it could certainly do that any time the Centre Alliance members felt inspired to take liberal positions on such issues as asylum seekers and expansion of the national security state.
Since then, talk of Cory Bernardi rejoining the Liberal Party has moved on to suggestions he will leave parliament altogether, creating a casual vacancy that would stand to be filled by the Liberal Party. Bernardi announced he would deregister his Australian Conservatives party on Thursday following its failure to make an impression at the election, and told Sky News the next day that it “might be best for me to leave parliament in the next six months”, although he also said he was “unresolved”. Paul Starick of The Advertiser reports that sources on both sides of the SA Liberal Party’s factional divide say the front-runner would be Georgina Downer, daughter of the former Foreign Minister and twice-unsuccessful lower house candidate for Mayo. The party’s Senate tickets usually pair moderate and Right faction members in the top two positions, and Downer would take a place for the Right that was filled in 2016 by Bernardi, with the other incumbent up for re-election in 2022 being moderate-aligned Simon Birmingham.
In other news, Simon Jackman and Luke Mansillo of the University of Sydney have posted slides from a detailed conference presentation on the great opinion poll failure. Once you get past the technical detail on the first few slides, this shows trend measures that attempt to ascertain the true underlying position throughout the parliamentary term, based on both polling and the actual results from both 2016 and 2019. This suggests the Coalition had its nose in front in Malcolm Turnbull’s last months, and that Labor only led by around 51-49 after he was dumped. An improving trend for the Coalition began in December and accelerated during the April-May campaign period. Also included is an analysis of pollster herding effects, which were particularly pronounced for the Coalition primary vote during the campaign period. Labor and Greens primary vote readings were more dispersed, in large part due to Ipsos’s pecularity of having low primary votes for Labor (accurately, as it turned out) and high ones for the Greens (rather less so).
Simon K….I’m not being pessimistic. I’m a realist. We have been losing even against a very weak, corrupt, incompetent and divided Right. We are weaker now than at any time since before WW1.
We are fucked. We had better get our shit together while we still can.
We have to get our story straight and then go and meet voters. There is no other way to do this.
To counter some of the pessimism.
vogrady tweets
@Triplejay58 @TheWillowGhost @billshortenmp Morning Jenny, On first Prefs Labor and Greens added together, polled 6,235,083 and Coalition parties polled 5,906,875, so you informant is right. https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseStateFirstPrefsByParty-24310-NAT.htm It puts in perspective some of the rubbish that is printed about being “smashed”
guytaur,
As I have said to you its not going to happen and on that we both agree so I don’t know why you have such a bee in your bonnet over this hypothetical.
I haven’t been ‘wailing’ or ‘had a bee in my bonnet’ about this. You have. I have simply proven, with the facts, that it’s not even trending that way.
briefly @ #201 Sunday, June 23rd, 2019 – 1:59 pm
If it your intention to drive people away from William’s blog with your negativity, pessimism and tedious repetition – not to mention your language – then all I can say is that you are doing so very effectively 🙁
Cat
You are the one who after I argued the hypothetical is not going to happen felt they had to prove the hypothetical was not going to happen. You are making me wonder if maybe the hypothetical is not so far out of the ball park as I thought
briefly:
The ALP government prior to WW1 created the RAN and thus set in motion the process that led to the Australian armed services becoming independent. The ALP government then led Australia into WW1 and maintained the AIF as an all volunteer force and (with the Canadians) the most effective force in WW1. The heirs of the first AIF have continued to be (on a like for like basis) the most effective force in all serious wars into which they have been deployed. The ALP under Curtin replaced Britain with the United States as our principal ally, and under much more statisfactory terms (there is no way that the US can or would even try to divert Australian forces to Burma and the problems are instead: i) no-one, including sensible elements in the US military, can stop the US trying stupid shit first, and ii) US has not developed ability to learn from allies and hence for example did not apply lessons from Malaya in Vietnam, even after AU at Nui Dat did so with success)
Difficult problems need solving? – call the ALP
Show-ponying, fear-mongering, lite-latte reasoning and culture wars? – call the Liberal party
“Insiders this morning: 4 highly paid journalists advocating for huge tax cuts they themselves will benefit from, while happily discussing how, by the time those tax cuts come into effect, the economy will likely be in recession and unable to support those tax cuts, unless government services (to low income people) are curtailed.
Weird.”
_______________
Not Weird at all. Illustrative that as a class, MSM journos, especially CPG journos are at best Petite Bourgeois, with a few full RWNJs and trots thrown in for ‘colour’ and ‘balance’.
How good is ScoMo!
Andrew_Earlwood @ #208 Sunday, June 23rd, 2019 – 2:18 pm
How did the panelists ‘advocate for huge tax cuts’ ?
What did they say exactly?
The biggest danger to Labor is the negativity spreading through their branches from the likes of Briefly.
The other danger is of course from the Labor right who will now attempt to try to take Labor even further to the right.
Labor will find it much more politically beneficial to adopt Greens policy to lift the ALP primary vote and see off the Greens political party.
Didn’t Briefly join the Extinction Rebellion last week? This indicates me to that he is moving closer to the Greens considering their anti-Adani protests!
IN fact extinction rebellion were part of the convoy. Yet Briefly joins them. Couldn’t get any weirder.
Extinction Rebellion
@ExtinctionR
Shut Down Adani
End coal. #WhateverItTakes
. #FossilFree.
Feb 23 at 12 PM – Mar 3 at 3 PM UTC+10
Birri & Juru Country, Near Bowen
I have just watched the interview with Jim Chalmers on Insiders, I think he would make a good future leader of the Labor Party.
If I was Albo, I would actually pass the tax cuts then make it absolutely clear that if the government was falling short of its surplus and presented budget cuts to the parliament then the ALP would oppose every single one.
@Mexicanbeemer
That is good strategy in the current economic climate.
If I was Albo, I would actually pass the tax cuts then make it absolutely clear that if the government was falling short of its surplus and presented budget cuts to the parliament then the ALP would oppose every single one.
____
The buggers would do it by regulation or other sneaky means.
Australian Labor Party 4,752,160 33.34%
Everyone else….66.66% of the PV.
The Greens are an anti-Labor voice.
So the coast west of Portland is in danger from rising sea levels. Portland to Nelson there is nothing but massive dune systems encroaching hundreds of metres inland. The low lying coastal areas east of Portland towards Narrawong and Port Fairy would make more sense.
Tristo says:
Sunday, June 23, 2019 at 2:53 pm
@Mexicanbeemer
That is good strategy in the current economic climate.
———————————–
Looking at the economy and the RBA basically throwing doubt over the government’s assumptions then that surplus is looking unlikely.
Mexicanbeemer @ #214 Sunday, June 23rd, 2019 – 2:45 pm
I agree with this tactic.
Albanese and Chalmers need to start their short and sharp direct messaging engagement by framing Morrison as the ‘shonky salesman’.
They have to essentially spend three years making the public feel buyers remorse.
BK
They can to some extent but if things slow down faster then the government has planned for then they would need to make structural changes to its budget and underspending would stand out.
briefly @ #217 Sunday, June 23rd, 2019 – 2:55 pm
The WA Labor party (and all branches across the country) need to be on alert for the briefly types who will infest the branches with negativity and defeatism. Labor party rank and file need to feel positive about the fresh new beginning away from the Shorten/dolt era of nothingness.
taylormade
I believe that some years ago, the Council tried to stop development along Narrawong coast because of incipient searise and I think the local MP (Dennis Napthine?) stepped in.
Compulsory superannuation was introduced on the false pretense that the Australian Government could run out of Australian dollars – the currency that the Australian Government alone can issue. It was extremely economically illiterate to introduce compulsory superannuation on this basis.
The Australian Government spends its currency into the non-government sector by using keystrokes on computers at the central bank. It cannot run out! The constraint is real resource availability and inflation risk. There is no financial constraint.
The Australian Government taxes its currency out of the non-government sector by using keystrokes on computers at the central bank. The Australian Government keeps a record of the taxes that people have paid but once a dollar has been deleted out of the non-government sector it doesn’t go anywhere. The Australian Government is continually spending new dollars into the non-government sector to replace the old dollars that have been taxed away.
The fairest retirement policy is for the Australian Government to provide a Maximum Base Rate pension to every individual who is aged 65 and over. There would be no means-testing.
I would lift the Maximum Base Rate of the pension to 100 percent of the full-time minimum wage.
I would lift the full-time minimum wage from $19.49 per hour to $25 per hour, which is where it would be had it kept pace with the growth of average labour productivity since 1970.
Therefore assuming a 35 hour working week, the weekly pension would be $25 x 35 = $875 per week. That is a very decent retirement income.
People who want a more comfortable retirement than this can supplement their pension with savings and investments that they have accumulated from their post-tax income. I would not provide any tax deductions for these additional savings and investments.
Alabama taking another step down the path to Handmaid’s Tale. Yeee haw.
.
.
MONTGOMERY, Ala. (AP) — Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey has signed legislation permitting Briarwood Presbyterian Church to establish its own police force for its church and school campuses.
https://www.apnews.com/c09feda825c441289bf14b996580dfc5
Lizzie,
The erosion along that area was caused by the construction of the harbour break walls back in the 50’s. The council built a rockwall many years ago, around 10km in length to the east of Portland along Dutton Way. Also over the last decade the port have been dredging the harbour mouth to cater for the modern bigger ships and has been piping this sand along the coast towards Narrawong.
Seems to have fixed the issue, but the rockwall still suffers some damage when we get a combination of high tides and big swells.
A controversial large scale abalone farm has been given the green light by the council to build a facility just behind the rockwall. You would assume the council by granting the permit no longer believes there is an issue.
taylormade
Thanks for that. It’s many years since I visited Portland. 🙂
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-06-23/wa-electricity-demand-set-for-first-fall-amid-rooftop-solar-boom/11234184
A federal government surplus is the amount of net financial assets that the government has deleted from the non-government sector in a given fiscal year. That’s it. It is not a very interesting statistic. It certainly is not something to be proud of (unless you think it is a good thing to cause the non-government sector to have less financial wealth next year than they had this year).
A federal government deficit is the amount of net financial assets that the government has added to the non-government sector in a given financial year. Most people would see this as a positive thing. When your domestic private sector wants to net save and your external sector (the rest of the world) wants to net save in your nation’s currency, by definition the federal government will be running a deficit that equals the sum of the other two sectors’ surpluses. Only the currency issuer can meet the savings desires of the other two sectors. This is not a problem for anyone. It is normal and routine. It is healthy.
We need to eradicate the idea of SURPLUS GOOD, DEFICIT BAD!!!! It is an illiterate and dumb notion propounded by people who have no clue about how government finances work.
Alabama taking another step down the path to Handmaid’s Tale. Yeee haw.
_____
Only in America poroti!
Parts of it anyway.
‘ Alabama you got the weight on your shoulders that’s breaking your back…’
https://youtu.be/VK_JJ4hkT2s
Tristo @ #213 Sunday, June 23rd, 2019 – 12:39 pm
I do too.
Grog today repeats his constant message. He says in blunt language what the RBA is saying to the government in diplomatic language.
CFMEU
I see both sides of the fence.
Can’t F* Make Em Useful.
I don’t know what the second M is for.
N….the addition of financial assets to the private sector has not really helped the private sector a great deal. Instead, we’ve also seen a corresponding increase in their financial liabilities to others in the private sector. This has been most prominent in the household sector – indebtedness, accompanied by a speculative boom in land prices. As the addition to private sector financial assets/liabilities has slowed down, so the land boom has begun to unwind. We can say that the release of financial assets into the private sector from the public sector has been reflected in swollen private sector balance sheets, in the land bubbles. Public sector debt has gone not into production and consumption, but into land/rent speculation. We’ve not got much for all the deficits that have been run.
As the private sector deflates its balance sheet – reduces both assets and liabilities held – in response to the now protracted income recession, there will be an increase in household savings intentions. This will have a negative effect on both the real economy and on the fiscal balance. The Commonwealth will have to choose between allowing the fiscal deficit to expand as a response to contracting private real demand, or trying to lift its own savings. If it does the latter, there will be a serious recession that will be accentuated by the deflation of land prices.
If the public deficit expands again, most of it will go into land prices. We’re fucked.
Next come their own courts, prison and executioner?
An interesting tidbit I heard this morning. Margaret Atwood was writing ‘The Handmaid’s Tale’ while working at the University of Alabama.
The two Ms in CFMMEU are mining and maritime?
Mork and Mindy?
One of those useless facts I learnt while while commissioning stuff in the USA. The USA state with the highest rate of STD, Alabama.
– – The government has been lying about the strength of the economy – its lack of policy is hurting us.
Greg Jericho – –
He is assuming the lack of policy is accidental. Shock therapy needs a trigger.
citizen says:
Sunday, June 23, 2019 at 3:57 pm
The two Ms in CFMMEU are mining and maritime?
In the version I was told I doubt it.
Hugh Moran @ #238 Sunday, June 23rd, 2019 – 1:56 pm
Yes I read that somewhere too once. Perhaps the state of Alabama was inspiration for the book!
“It is repugnant!”
It is nath, pretty much the definition of.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jun/23/culture-shock-politics-upended-in-era-of-identity
I don’t entirely agree with this commentary. For one thing, it conflates some of the electoral arithmetic. But it is interesting and well-written…and it does support the conclusion that we are indeed f%^&*d
Only Nimbin?!
Dutton knows that conspicuous and gratuitous cruelty – a time-honoured instrument of tyranny – serves the Liberals very well. He would like to be able to freely dispense disciplinary revenge and punishment among our population of political prisoners.
He will flagellate Labor with this.
We have the Greens to thank for this abomination.
Wonder how the medical practitioners of Nimbin might feel about Dutton’s comment.
Player One @ #205 Sunday, June 23rd, 2019 – 2:07 pm
This is true, and has been canvassed before.
The poster known as briefly couldn’t give a fuck.