Federal election plus five weeks

An already strong result for government in the Senate may be about to get even better, as Cory Bernardi eyes the exit. And yet more on the great pollster failure.

I had a paywalled article in Crikey on the conclusion of the Senate election result, which among other things had this to say:

The Coalition went into the election with 31 senators out of 76 and comes out with 35 — and may be about to go one better if there is anything behind suggestions that Cory Bernardi is set to rejoin the Liberal Party. That would leave the government needing the support of only three crossbenchers to win contested votes.

That could be achieved with the two votes of the Centre Alliance plus that of Jacqui Lambie, who is newly restored to the Senate after falling victim to the Section 44 imbroglio in late 2017. Lambie appears to be co-operating closely with the Centre Alliance, having long enjoyed a warm relationship with the party’s founder Nick Xenophon.

Such a voting bloc would relieve the Morrison government of the need to dirty its hands in dealing with One Nation — though it could certainly do that any time the Centre Alliance members felt inspired to take liberal positions on such issues as asylum seekers and expansion of the national security state.

Since then, talk of Cory Bernardi rejoining the Liberal Party has moved on to suggestions he will leave parliament altogether, creating a casual vacancy that would stand to be filled by the Liberal Party. Bernardi announced he would deregister his Australian Conservatives party on Thursday following its failure to make an impression at the election, and told Sky News the next day that it “might be best for me to leave parliament in the next six months”, although he also said he was “unresolved”. Paul Starick of The Advertiser reports that sources on both sides of the SA Liberal Party’s factional divide say the front-runner would be Georgina Downer, daughter of the former Foreign Minister and twice-unsuccessful lower house candidate for Mayo. The party’s Senate tickets usually pair moderate and Right faction members in the top two positions, and Downer would take a place for the Right that was filled in 2016 by Bernardi, with the other incumbent up for re-election in 2022 being moderate-aligned Simon Birmingham.

In other news, Simon Jackman and Luke Mansillo of the University of Sydney have posted slides from a detailed conference presentation on the great opinion poll failure. Once you get past the technical detail on the first few slides, this shows trend measures that attempt to ascertain the true underlying position throughout the parliamentary term, based on both polling and the actual results from both 2016 and 2019. This suggests the Coalition had its nose in front in Malcolm Turnbull’s last months, and that Labor only led by around 51-49 after he was dumped. An improving trend for the Coalition began in December and accelerated during the April-May campaign period. Also included is an analysis of pollster herding effects, which were particularly pronounced for the Coalition primary vote during the campaign period. Labor and Greens primary vote readings were more dispersed, in large part due to Ipsos’s pecularity of having low primary votes for Labor (accurately, as it turned out) and high ones for the Greens (rather less so).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,716 comments on “Federal election plus five weeks”

  1. About Setka, C@t says “if he were a real man he’d resign”.

    What a simplistic notion.

    If you are presuming to speculate what is in Setka’s mind, and you must do this if you are to judge him about his thoughts (as to what he should decide to do ie resign) then that takes an ability to see the world from his point of view, ie imagine walking in his shoes, ie empathy.

    So off you go C@t ……. what is it it like to be a leader of a Union where the main task is to keep workers alive. And this in a workplace where physical toughness is a requirement. In a workplace where those in control ie powerful developers and construction companies will do anything at all to turn a few extra cents profit. (refer here to the 2 cracking high rises in Sydney, and the recent scaffold collapse which killed an 18 year old apprentice)

    Once in Setka’s shoes, imagine what you’d say to a woman on a blog site calling for you to resign . In a nice mood it’d be “pull your head in” or similar. After a hard day he’d just tell you to FRO.

  2. ‘lizzie says:
    Wednesday, June 26, 2019 at 4:25 pm

    Boerwar

    I doubt if any of the Ministers for the last 10 years have had any intention of complying with any rules of conduct. They are an incredibly selfish and arrogant lot.’

    Selfish. Tick.
    Arrogant.Tick.
    Lawless.Tick.
    Venal.Tick.
    Corrupt.Tick.
    Inept. Tick.
    Secretive.Tick.
    Brutal.Tick.

  3. The point of the Coalition talking about nuclear power is to distract from the fact that they have been purchased lock, stock and barrel by the coal and fracking interests.

    Just another worn out unicorn by a corrupt bunch of third world crony capitalists.

  4. Just in case Buceph, Rex and Nath have forgotten exactly who they are pimps for:

    Talk about lucky!

    Abbott: Lucky $80,000 (?)Rolex Watch
    Robert: Lucky $80,000 (?) Rolex Watch
    McFarlane: Lucky $80,000 (?)Rolex Watch
    Robert: Unlucky China Business Trip
    Ley: Unlucky Gold Coast Business Trips
    Sinodinos: Lucky Water Holdings Sergeant Schultz
    Joyce: Unlucky Motorbike Prang
    Joyce: Unlucky 4×4 Prang
    Joyce: Lucky Love Shack
    Joyce: Lucky Job for the Other Woman
    Joyce: Lucky Mongrel Country Buy
    Joyce: Lucky Farmer of the Year Cheque
    Joyce: Lucky Wedding Trip to India
    Joyce: Lucky Trip to Smith’s Wedding
    JBishop: Lucky Wedding Trip to India
    Gambaro: Lucky Wedding Trip to India
    Brandis: Lucky Wedding Trip to Smith’s Nuptials
    Hockey: Lucky Helloworld Buy
    Cormann: Lucky Free Family Trip
    Morrison: Unlucky Bus Plane Bus Plane Trip
    BBishop: Lucky Mirabella Wedding Trip
    BBishop: Unlucky Helicopter Trip
    Porter: Lucky Campaign Bus
    Keenan: Lucky Fifth Amendment
    Cash: Lucky Fifth Amendment
    Downer: Unlucky Fake Cheque
    JBishop: Lucky $50,000 Liberal Party Donation
    JBishop: Lucky Polo Trip
    Pyne: Lucky Christmas Trip
    Porter: Lucky Campaign Bus Freebie
    Mirabella: Lucky Sub Expert
    Sudmalis: Lucky UN Observer Stint
    Hockey: Lucky Childcare Leaner
    Robb: Lucky Post China FTA China Job
    Billson: Lucky Double Dip
    Abbott: Lucky Indigenous Envoy
    Joyce: Lucky Drought Envoy
    Turnbull: Unlucky $1.75 Million Donation
    Abbott: Lucky Daughter’s Scholarship
    Wilson: Lucky Human Rights Commissioner Gig
    Parry: Unlucky S44 Heave Ho
    Porter: Lucky Pal Parry
    Parry: Lucky AAT Gig
    Briggs: Unlucky in Love
    Cash: Lucky in the Property Game
    Ley: Lucky Pilot Fees
    Robert: Bad Phone Luck
    Turnbull: Lucky Tax Haven
    Robert: Lucky Dip Share Gifts
    Porter: Lucky No Bells Ringing
    Frydenberg: Lucky No Bells Ringing
    O’Dwyer: Lucky No Bells Ringing
    Hockey: Lucky No Bells Ringing
    Brandis: Lucky London Gig
    Brandis: Lucky Diary No-show + Lucky Library+HC Gig
    Robert: Lucky Home Internet
    Robert: Lucky Sunland Dip
    Robert: Lucky Office Resources
    Bushby: Lucky Chicago High Commissioner Gig.
    Hunt: Unlucky Elder Tirade
    Sukkar: Unlucky Sums
    Downer: Lucky Chevening Scholarship
    Dutton: Lucky Paladin Innocent Bystander
    Dutton: Lucky s44 non referral
    Porter: Lucky Baldwin Pal.
    Bob Baldwin: Lucky AAT Gig
    Joseph Francis: Lucky AAT Gig
    William Frost: Lucky AAT Gig
    De-Anne Kelly: Lucky AAT Gig
    Michael Sutherland: Lucky AAT Gig
    Tony Barry: Lucky AAT Gig
    John Griffin: Lucky AAT Gig
    Robert Clark: Lucky Helloworld Sponsorship
    Donna Petrovich: Lucky AAT Gig.
    Patricia Forsythe: Lucky NZ High Commissioner Gig.
    Steve Ciobo: Lucky Indonesia Trip.
    Perrotet: Lucky campaign donation from former law firm that gets government contracts.
    Nigel Hallett Lucky Dip
    Phil Edman Lucky Dip
    Brian Ellis Lucky Dip
    Josh Thomas Lucky $350,000 GBRMPA Gig.

  5. You would have to think the Iranians are crazy brave. Fancy calling Trump wtte crazy!
    They should have renamed the Strait of Hormuz, the ‘Trump Strait.’
    Trump would be giving them nuclear weapons as we speak.

  6. Nicholas
    Self funded is reference to people not using the usual industry or retail fund. The main reason why many SMSF rely on government is because many of the people with them are fairly conservative in their outlook so invest accordingly. Proper investing should not be based on whether there is a tax deduction attached to it.

    Zoidy
    You might have noticed we had recessions when Australia build cars and houses were cheaper so greed isn’t the issue.

  7. BW………….Why waste your time and effort on the three negative losers you aimed your comment at? They enjoy what they do and no amount of reasoning will change their odd views of reality. Along with a couple of others, they poison reasoned debate here. They do not seek to debate, but to ‘score’.

  8. Boerwar

    I wonder if this reported translation that the WH is “afflicted by mental retardation” is an accurate reflection of the actual words used ? Translations can make things a lot better or worse than what it means to the native speaker and there a lot of people around who would like to add/subtract ‘color’ to it. .

  9. ‘Tricot says:
    Wednesday, June 26, 2019 at 5:18 pm

    BW………….Why waste your time and effort on the three negative losers you aimed your comment at? They enjoy what they do and no amount of reasoning will change their odd views of reality. Along with a couple of others, they poison reasoned debate here. They do not seek to debate, but to ‘score’.’

    I take your point. OTOH, they are Morrison’s pimps and it does not hurt to remind them thereof. From time to time.

  10. Sudmalis: Lucky UN Observer Stint
    _________________________
    No mention that Jenny Macklin got the same 3 month New York stint? come on, if we are going to get all outraged by the perks at least make it bipartisan.

  11. ‘poroti says:
    Wednesday, June 26, 2019 at 5:24 pm

    Boerwar

    I wonder if this reported translation that the WH is “afflicted by mental retardation” is an accurate reflection of the actual words used ? Translations can make things a lot better or worse than what it means to the native speaker .’

    You could be right. I can’t think of anything over the past couple of months that is more calculated to set fire to the joint than a mob of ‘ragheads’ telling Trump he is bonkers.

  12. Bucephalus:

    No, poor people aren’t paying Company Tax …

    As is well known, the “problem” with company tax (and why it is arguably nonsense) is that it is never actually paid by companies (because that is impossible). Instead companies act as tax collectors and the tax is finally paid by some combination of: i): shareholders (as lower earnings), ii): suppliers (as lower prices) and, iii): customers (as higher prices). Poor people are included in both categories ii) and iii), and hence do pay (the cost of) company tax.

    Ec. Lit. 101…

  13. I support your outrage on the perks, but why make it so partisan? defeats the purpose. And just demonstrates rank hypocrisy and undermines an important point about the politicians and their millionaire aspirations. We really must thank Howard for closing down the old pension scheme, clearly the best thing he ever did.

  14. Tricot @ 5.18

    The lack of intellectual rigour and deliberate attempt to misconstrue my earlier point in Bucephalus post @ 4.30 fully supports your view about odd perceptions of reality of some posters.

    How a $38m structure for three basketball courts at an already extremely well resourced school, can be considered to be an appropriate tax deductible donation is beyond my comprehension – it has nothing to do with the public policy parameters of allowing charitable donations to be deductible.

    And in a spirit of disclosure – it has also nothing to do with envy. I have paid more of my after tax dollars than I care to calculate in fees to educate the offspring in similarly resourced schools.

  15. ‘E. G. Theodore says:
    Wednesday, June 26, 2019 at 5:31 pm

    Ec. Lit. 101…’

    Haha. Low blow to Buce’s pseudointellectual ghoolies!

  16. The ugly head of nuclear power generation is being raised again, often in the same breath as a solution to global warming. That this view is promulgated by those who deny the science of climate change shows their moral bankruptcy.
    Aside from this, the economics does not stack up, the timeline does not stack up and the engineering does not stack up against the operational risks. In reference to the engineering, it is naive to think that new designs in any way mitigate the risk of shonky contractors using slipshod materials and practices on such a project. As a Chartered Professional Engineer with 50 years of experience I can assure you that the gold standard of Quality Assurance is absolutely inadequate when put up against the almighty dollar. QC does not cut it either.
    We already have many and recent examples of professional, industry and regulatory failure in more mundane engineering fields. Keep well from nuclear fission unless and until there is a real scientific breakthrough such as fusion which tips the risk/reward equation in our favour.

  17. P
    Indeed. A certain tower in Sydney is not sinking. It is ‘moving downwards’. Imagine a nuclear power station ‘moving downwards.’
    Actually, come to think of it, this is precisely what happened to the nuclear cores at Fukushima. They moved downwards.

  18. Yes BW, a deliberate mistranslation precipitated the Franco-Prussian war which laid the foundation for WW1 and WW2. 100 Million dead due to the wrong emphasis in a translation

  19. Rambler……….looking back, your earlier comment seemed fair enough to me.
    However, as you have noted, the bottom dwellers can’t resist being contrarians. They so often contradict themselves over time that it is pointless engaging with them.
    It is my unsubstantiated observation that the actual number of contributors to PB have fallen away, the quality of what is being discussed is disappointing and the most vociferous are here, it seems to me, to be merely vexatious and contrary for the heck of it.
    I admire BW (and a few others) for taking these poison spreaders on (they of course see any view, other than then own, as misguided) however, it is a lost cause for the time being – more’s the pity.

  20. ‘Oakeshott Country says:
    Wednesday, June 26, 2019 at 5:54 pm

    Yes BW, a deliberate mistranslation precipitated the Franco-Prussian war which laid the foundation for WW1 and WW2. 100 Million dead due to the wrong emphasis in a translation’

    Haha. I am not sure how you translate “Napoleon 111 was a consummate fuckwit.’

    Vive élan!

  21. Psyclaw @ #1551 Wednesday, June 26th, 2019 – 5:00 pm

    About Setka, C@t says “if he were a real man he’d resign”.

    What a simplistic notion.

    If you are presuming to speculate what is in Setka’s mind, and you must do this if you are to judge him about his thoughts (as to what he should decide to do ie resign) then that takes an ability to see the world from his point of view, ie imagine walking in his shoes, ie empathy.

    So off you go C@t ……. what is it it like to be a leader of a Union where the main task is to keep workers alive. And this in a workplace where physical toughness is a requirement. In a workplace where those in control ie powerful developers and construction companies will do anything at all to turn a few extra cents profit. (refer here to the 2 cracking high rises in Sydney, and the recent scaffold collapse which killed an 18 year old apprentice)

    Once in Setka’s shoes, imagine what you’d say to a woman on a blog site calling for you to resign . In a nice mood it’d be “pull your head in” or similar. After a hard day he’d just tell you to FRO.

    Keep defending a convicted abuser, psyclaw, there’s a good girl.

  22. Oh, and I wasn’t telling Setka to resign, psyclaw, as you misconstrue it. I was saying that if he was at all reflective, as a real man would be, then he would come to the conclusion in his own mind that it was the best thing for him to do to resign. But keep trying to one up me. Pfft!

  23. An interesting development.

    Homebuyers in a town where properties typically cost almost 12 times local salaries may soon have a low-cost option from Ikea after a UK council agreed to work with an affordable housing developer co-owned by the retailer.

    Worthing council has signed up with BoKlok, a company jointly owned by the Swedish retailer and construction firm Skanska which specialises in factory-built housing that can be constructed at a low cost.

    The firm sets property prices so that buyers have money left to live on after they have paid their housing costs, and its website says “a single parent can afford to buy and live in a newly built two-bedroom BoKlok apartment”.

    It has built 11,000 homes across Sweden, Finland, Denmark and Norway, and is keen to break into the UK after a false start more than a decade ago.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/jun/26/uk-council-ikea-affordable-housing-worthing-boklok

  24. Tricot @ #1559 Wednesday, June 26th, 2019 – 5:18 pm

    BW………….Why waste your time and effort on the three negative losers you aimed your comment at? They enjoy what they do and no amount of reasoning will change their odd views of reality. Along with a couple of others, they poison reasoned debate here. They do not seek to debate, but to ‘score’.

    Closed minds often have trouble with others opinions.

  25. Boerwar

    One of the things about “conservatives” in this country is that whilst claiming to be against “big government” and in favour of “private enterprise”, they are in fact mainly concerned to obtain and maintain preferential tax treatment from the government, and in many cases this (rather than running an actual business) is the basis of their wealth. It’s a real love-hate relationship, between the tax-mendicant and his government patron.

  26. Michael West@MichaelWestBiz
    2h2 hours ago

    Chris “The Fixer” Pyne goes from Defence Minister to defence lobbyist at @EY_Australia. EY billed the govt $208m in two years for Defence consulting alone. Let er rip

  27. Michael West@MichaelWestBiz
    2h2 hours ago

    Chris “The Fixer” Pyne goes from Defence Minister to defence lobbyist at @EY_Australia. EY billed the govt $208m in two years for Defence consulting alone. Let er rip

    _______________________
    Yep, now the real money can be made. Stephen Conroy and Anna Bligh have shown the way 🙂

  28. Politicians are on a unity ticket in becoming very wealthy off the back of the taxpayer. As Marcus L’estrange said, the pollies:

    … would, metaphorically speaking, kill their own mother to become an MP and, from there, a millionaire ,then later, if you are halfway smart, a multimillionaire.

    You can really set up not only yourself, but your children for life by putting on a good act and towing the party line.

  29. Anyone remember Paul Howes?

    “Former Australian Workers’ Union boss Paul Howes has also risen quickly at rival outfit KPMG, last month becoming one of the firm’s 12-person national leadership team.”

  30. C@t

    How on earth could a “convicted abuser” be reflective.

    Why are you saying positive things about such a bad man. Standing shoulder to shoulder with a thug. You should be ashamed of yourself, defending DV perpetrators.

  31. Nath:

    Yep, now the real money can be made. Stephen Conroy and Anna Bligh have shown the way

    I think you’ll find that Peter Reith was the godfather of the “ex defence minster” rort.

    More interestingly, Alexander Downer and Nick Bolkus left politics at the same time and went into business together (“Bespoke Approach”). It was a success for Mr. Bolkus, much less so for Mr. Downer (who had to fall back on becoming chairman of Huawei Australia and then something to do with Cyprus).

    “Conservatives” in Australia = bad at business.

  32. E.G

    And remember Jeff Kennett’s – and Peter Costello’s – early attempts at careers after politics? It got quite grim for both of them.

  33. Most normal people would acknowledge that I had given John Setka the benefit of the doubt after seeing him speak outside of court today. Others, just want to see what I say and attempt to tee off on me because of it. 🙄

  34. Sad to see the level of RWNutbaggery on the Australian over Folau.

    Seems that this is one of those pointless bullshit issues that the “free speech” and “freedom of religion” culture warriors are grabbing with glee. Morriscum and his happy clappers will use this to run their religious freedom distraction bill and its a gift to them.

    Why do they think that religious belief justifies being a homophobic dickhead? Really, they think actual God is actually as intolerant an arsehole as they are??

    And for someone with his assets to go begging for other people to finance a problem he went to some lengths to create is simply pathetic. The grub wants to put other peoples money where his mouth is.

  35. “I wonder if this reported translation that the WH is “afflicted by mental retardation” is an accurate reflection of the actual words used ? Translations can make things a lot better or worse than what it means to the native speaker and there a lot of people around who would like to add/subtract ‘color’ to it. .”

    Something like the “recalcitrant” crisis on the early 90s where the Malaysians translated the word to imply that Paul Keating had called Mahartir something like an ill-bred yokel.

    Who knows what to believe? Believe what Trump says? Believe the Iranians? Or maybe none of the above.

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