I had a paywalled article in Crikey on the conclusion of the Senate election result, which among other things had this to say:
The Coalition went into the election with 31 senators out of 76 and comes out with 35 — and may be about to go one better if there is anything behind suggestions that Cory Bernardi is set to rejoin the Liberal Party. That would leave the government needing the support of only three crossbenchers to win contested votes.
That could be achieved with the two votes of the Centre Alliance plus that of Jacqui Lambie, who is newly restored to the Senate after falling victim to the Section 44 imbroglio in late 2017. Lambie appears to be co-operating closely with the Centre Alliance, having long enjoyed a warm relationship with the party’s founder Nick Xenophon.
Such a voting bloc would relieve the Morrison government of the need to dirty its hands in dealing with One Nation — though it could certainly do that any time the Centre Alliance members felt inspired to take liberal positions on such issues as asylum seekers and expansion of the national security state.
Since then, talk of Cory Bernardi rejoining the Liberal Party has moved on to suggestions he will leave parliament altogether, creating a casual vacancy that would stand to be filled by the Liberal Party. Bernardi announced he would deregister his Australian Conservatives party on Thursday following its failure to make an impression at the election, and told Sky News the next day that it “might be best for me to leave parliament in the next six months”, although he also said he was “unresolved”. Paul Starick of The Advertiser reports that sources on both sides of the SA Liberal Party’s factional divide say the front-runner would be Georgina Downer, daughter of the former Foreign Minister and twice-unsuccessful lower house candidate for Mayo. The party’s Senate tickets usually pair moderate and Right faction members in the top two positions, and Downer would take a place for the Right that was filled in 2016 by Bernardi, with the other incumbent up for re-election in 2022 being moderate-aligned Simon Birmingham.
In other news, Simon Jackman and Luke Mansillo of the University of Sydney have posted slides from a detailed conference presentation on the great opinion poll failure. Once you get past the technical detail on the first few slides, this shows trend measures that attempt to ascertain the true underlying position throughout the parliamentary term, based on both polling and the actual results from both 2016 and 2019. This suggests the Coalition had its nose in front in Malcolm Turnbull’s last months, and that Labor only led by around 51-49 after he was dumped. An improving trend for the Coalition began in December and accelerated during the April-May campaign period. Also included is an analysis of pollster herding effects, which were particularly pronounced for the Coalition primary vote during the campaign period. Labor and Greens primary vote readings were more dispersed, in large part due to Ipsos’s pecularity of having low primary votes for Labor (accurately, as it turned out) and high ones for the Greens (rather less so).
Australia has reached a major milestone, with most new retirees having enough savings to be self-funded rather than reliant on the age pension, new research shows.
More than half of 66-year-olds were not accessing the age pension at December 2018 because their assets and income were too high, while 20 per cent were on a part pension.
Only 25 per cent were drawing a full age pension.
According to Jeremy Cooper, chairman of retirement income at Challenger who conducted a review of the super system for the then Labor government in 2009, the figures are proof the superannuation system is working.
“Contrary to many opinions, super is reducing reliance on the age pension for the large majority of people entering retirement,” he says in a report published today.
“The evidence for this is that the average newly retired Australian is not accessing the age pension at all.”
The age at which people become eligible to apply for the means-tested age pension increased to 65.5 in July 2017 and will rise again to 66 on July 1.
It has been 27 years since the introduction of compulsory super and the average consolidated balance for singles approaching retirement (that is, those aged 60 to 64) exceeded $300,000 in 2016-17.
At the household level the average would be $400,000, which Challenger estimates will rise to $600,000 in five years (not discounted for inflation).
The figures look higher than other studies because Challenger uses Australian Taxation Office aggregates for super balances by tax file number, capturing those with more than one superannuation account.
“Members across a wide range of funds have retirement savings that can support a more desirable lifestyle in retirement than has previously been achievable,” Mr Cooper’s report says.
Debate about whether to push ahead with a legislated increase in the super guarantee from 9.5 per cent to 12 per cent is expected to form part of a pending government review of retirement incomes.
Actuarial consultancy firm Rice Warner argues the ideal rate to provide most Australians with adequate retirement income is higher than 10 per cent but less than 15 per cent.
Others, notably the Grattan Institute, insist the rate should be frozen at 9.5 per cent because tax concessions associated with an increase to 12 per cent will outweigh any savings in the age pension bill until about 2060.
The superannuation industry says single people who own their own home and are in relatively good health need $454,000 in savings (and couples $640,000) to achieve a comfortable retirement.
doyley,
No one brought the focus on John Setka but John Setka himself. Unless, that is, you would want the media to ignore Domestic Violence so John can have a quiet life representing his members and terrorising his wife at home?
I have nothing but respect for Anthony Albanese taking a strong stand on John Setka.
I mean, have you ever stopped to think that maybe the Labor Party took this issue on early in the Morrison government’s term so that they could get it out of the way and do what you say you want and focus on holding the government to account? Because the evidence must have been overwhelming for John Setka himself to know he had no chance of fighting the charges successfully.
So could you please stop finding new and different ways to defend the guy? Those of us who have suffered at the hands of violent men feel sick in the stomach when other violent men are defended so vociferously by other men.
Nuclear energy booster:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-06-26/industry-super-funds-consider-the-nuclear-option/11248202
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/jun/26/super-funds-and-investors-with-34tn-urge-leaders-to-speed-up-climate-action
C@tmomma @ #1497 Wednesday, June 26th, 2019 – 2:58 pm
Most of those talking about the ‘footy guy’ will be those on the left who could more profitably talking about other things.
Industry Super Australia chairman Greg Combet
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/time-for-super-ceasefire-says-combet-20190625-p5215m.html
C@t
Although I understand your attitude to Domestic Violence, I do think that Doyley also has a point when he says that Business and Coalition are going to use this to put more pressure on unions (as usual).
Bucephalus @ 2.52.
Would agree if that was 100% correct – but donations to the School Building Fund are tax deductible (presumably mostly at the top marginal tax rate) so there is a pretty big funding component from the rest of the community.
“It’s about time that Labor and its supporters started ignoring News Ltd, Sky News and the rest of the propaganda outlets.
Stop giving them oxygen.”
This should extend to:
– cancelling your Foxtel subscription
– cancelling your subscriptions to The Australian, the Daily Telegraph and other Newscorp titles
– do not click on any of their sites
– I suppose it’s a but much to ask people to abandon NRL (do they own AFL too?) but think about it.
If Newscorp lose a large tranche of their customer base maybe they will consider their business model
@briefly
The Liberal and National parties have adopted certain One Nation policies (to the determent of the whole country), why can’t Labor adopt some Greens (to the benefit of the country) policies and ideas ?. For example; developing a ‘Green New Deal’ style policy to help transition Australia into a Zero Emissions economy, building new green industries, along with providing lots of well paid, secure jobs in these industries. Because a significant slice of the Greens vote are people who would give their first preference Labor if it was more progressive, not to mention a lot of younger people who voted yes in the Same Sex Marriage plebiscite, but either did not turn out or cast an informal vote. Indeed the current generation of young adults and their activism was instrumental to the success of same sex marriage plebiscite.
@Steve777
I am convinced, that only way the people of this country can defeat the Murdoch empire, is for a mass boycott of all News Corporation media outlets.
Typical Home Affairs, blocking any changes, and probably taking offence at the accusation of being “not very effective in reducing the production and supply”.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jun/26/duttons-department-fights-nsw-calls-to-decriminalise-the-drug-ice
lizzie @ #1506 Wednesday, June 26th, 2019 – 3:18 pm
And I agree with that assessment. However, one shouldn’t be allowed to excuse the other.
You could almost say that Labor, via their action against John Setka, are trying their best to preserve unions in this country as a force for good by dealing with Setka themselves and not providing a hook for the government to hang their draconian legislation on.
Murdoch is reported to lose around $25 million a year.
This is tax deductible.
Over time he has harvested investment returns because of government rule changes worth much, much more than $25 million a year before deductions.
The key is the ability of Murdoch’s scribes to set the agenda and to frame the debate.
Which is why there have been something like seven articles about Folau in The Australian alone over the past two days.
So, instead of talking about the massive erosion of free speech arising from literally dozens of pieces of ‘security’ legislation passed Democracy Busters R Us, we are talking about Folau’s free speech and the free speech of Christians.
It does not matter what you actually say about Folau and the Christians provided you accept that those are the primary things to talk about when you talk about free speech.
It is why Bucephalus, Rex and Nath are endlessly happy to set a little bait on Folau.
Suckered.
Victory to Murdoch right there.
The Coalition scores another mighty achievement.
.
.
Australia’s ranking plummets in ‘world’s best reputation’ countries list
Meanwhile, both Australia and the UK slipped seven places to 15th and 19th respectively,…………………..Perceptions of quality of life in Australia dropped the most, falling nine points since 2014. The report cited the high cost of living, falling disposable incomes, lack of affordable housing and rising homelessness as potential reasons for the drop.
http://www.traveller.com.au/countries-with-the-best-reputations-futurebrand-country-index-2019-results-h1fp0d
cat,
Not once have I said I supported Setka staying or in his court case. In not one post. He has to go.
However, Albanese has achieved nothing towards the goal of removing Setka from his union position. If anything, the boof headed intervention by him has hardened the resolve of Setka and his supporters, made the job of McManus so much harder and has opened up public fractures within the labour movement at a time when unity is critical.
Hardly a resounding successful intervention by Albanese. If this is being considered a Albanese win then I await with baited breath for his first failure.
C@t
Whistleblowers were included… (not Murphy’s piece)
I’m also waiting for Peter Dutton to take umbrage at the comments about the increasing excuse of Security to protect all government papers.
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2019/jun/26/australian-media-unite-to-demand-government-change-laws-after-afp-raids
adrian @ #1504 Wednesday, June 26th, 2019 – 3:16 pm
I think you’ll find that people on the Left ARE talking about other things as well as the footy guy. However, it’s not just the person making the outrageous statements and then hiding behind ‘religious freedom’ as his justification for saying them, it’s the issue of what we can and can’t say in public as a society, and via social media, that IS worth discussing.
The only way an Industry Super Fund could invest in nuclear power is if:
(a) the Government accepts financial responsibility for the risks
(b) the Government subsidizes the energy price.
(c) taxpayers pay for the eventual clean up.
If the Funds can sucker the Government into taking all the risks, subsidizing the price over a guaranteed envelope of say 20-30 years, and cleaning up the mess, why not?
Going on failed recent projects the risks include: routine massive cost blow outs and routine massive delays, and Fukushima-type risk which has a current tag of around $2-$3 hundred billion. On current trends and if you hold your breath for another ten years that estimate will be a $1 trillion. The main risk is global warming which will be with us in spades by the time a reactor is commissioned in Australia.
Thank you, lizzie. Shall read soon. 🙂
poroti
Australia is also sliding rapidly down the corruption list.
How good is that?
Murdoch, through Fox, lost control of the NRL about 5 years ago
” a net social gain”
F’ck that. As long as the other f’cker isn’t getting something that I’m not.
doyley,
I know that you have thought for a long time that Anthony Albanese’s intervention in the Setka matter would have a negative effect on Sally McManus’ efforts to get him to stand down from his union leadership. However, it seems from reporting in the media and via inside information passed on here it was the case that Setka had been in Sally McManus’ sights for a while due to a number of incidents that had occurred. So it was something that needed to be going forward and I think that, as the political arm of the union movement, it was incumbent upon the Labor Party to take a stand against a miscreant union leader BEFORE the Coalition could use it to beat both the union movement and the Labor Party up with. Otherwise the laws that the Coalition would bring in would be so much worse because the Labor Party would have vacated the moral high ground by doing nothing about Setka.
At least this way Labor can stand up to the government in the parliament knowing that they were on the front foot about it.
As far as the removal of Setka from his position goes, if he were a real man he would resign.
HH
If this is true, governments can stop panicking about the ageing population. Those of us who couldn’t acquire enough super (or investments) to be self-sufficient will soon die off.
Boerwar
A slight edit needed.
.
.
(a) the Government accepts financial responsibility for the risks
(b) the Government subsidizes the energy price.
(c) Surviving taxpayers pay for the eventual clean up.
What I found fascinating to find out from the media leaders speaking today at the NPC was that there were MORE raids of the media planned by the AFP but they were called off due to the public outcry!
The Authoritarian Morrison Government, eh?
p
LOL
Once the builders get it far enough to get past the point of no return these things turn into massive milking cows.
Rivers of gold.
I’ll leave you all to snigger at the thought of Pyne being an expert on Defence.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/christopher-pyne-lands-a-new-job-20190626-p521fj.html
Around 200 industrial deaths and around 50-60 serious injuries for every death.
You will not be catching Bucephalus, Rex and Nath talking about that sort of stuff.
lizzie
The Ministerial Code of Conduct means that he should be nowhere any of that stuff for 18 months.
But, as noted previously The Abbott/Turnbull/Morrison governments have leitmotifs of corruption, venality, incompetence and brutality.
https://www.newsweek.com/bishop-holy-water-helicopter-1445828?amp=1&__twitter_impression=true
“Monsignor Rubén Darío Jaramillo Montoya, bishop of Buenaventura, Colombia, is borrowing a navy copter to deluge the city on July 14, the feast day for Buenaventura’s patron saint. “We want to go around the whole of Buenaventura from the air and pour holy water onto it… to see if we exorcise all those demons that are destroying our port,” Montoya told a local radio station. “So that God’s blessing comes and gets rid of all the wickedness that is in our streets.””
I seen this in movies, didn’t end well.
@Holden Hillbilly
I wonder how the self funded retirees will react, if the assets of these self-funded retirees gets wiped out, if the housing and stock markets collapses.
WB
I agree on Folau but now it’s out there I will be interested to see what the court finds.
Rambler says:
Wednesday, June 26, 2019 at 3:20 pm
So, you are opposed to tax deductions for donating to charities, not-for-profit organisations or political parties?
The rest of the community isn’t paying for that. No taxpayers money is being used. The idea that because someone gets a tax deduction means that another taxpayer is paying means you think that all of an individual’s income is owned by the government and they only are allowed to keep what they keep because of the kindness of the government. The government is entitled to the tax that is payable after allowable deductions – nothing more.
I would have thought that the lesson would have been learned from the failure of the attack on Franking Credits but apparently not.
It is why Bucephalus, Rex and Nath are endlessly happy to set a little bait on Folau.
Suckered.
Victory to Murdoch right there.
__________________________
Paranoia is such a self sustaining and enriching form of psychosis. I’ve barely mentioned the Folau matter, although I do think it will be an interesting case if it gets to the High Court.
I don’t think this is particuarly about Folau who is a mere proxy for the next bout of culture war
@Bucephalus
The failure for FranklingCredits is because of greed.
Paying no taxes is also greedy
About 70 millionaires didn’t pay tax either do you agree ?
Charities and churches are suppose to help people, not be homophobic，race hating bigotry.
They also not suppose to interfere with politics.
Boerwar says:
Wednesday, June 26, 2019 at 3:37 pm
Where in Australia has the earthquake and tsunami risk on the scale of Fukushima? (Hint: there’s only one region with Tsunami risk – do you know where?)
We wouldn’t build a Fukushima type reactor. I would expect a vastly safer design given we are 50 years on.
Boerwar
says:
Wednesday, June 26, 2019 at 3:57 pm
Around 200 industrial deaths and around 50-60 serious injuries for every death.
You will not be catching Bucephalus, Rex and Nath talking about that sort of stuff.
______________________________
Until this point neither did you. I also notice you never mention anything about human rights abuses in Africa. I thereby allege you are in cahoots with African regimes to distract the Australian public from these crimes.
Boerwar
I doubt if any of the Ministers for the last 10 years have had any intention of complying with any rules of conduct. They are an incredibly selfish and arrogant lot.
https://www.afr.com/business/accounting/ey-hires-christopher-pyne-to-boost-its-defence-business-20190626-p521cj
Well, certainly for the last option you listed there. Donating to a political party accomplishes nothing useful. Most likely it just buys some advertising somewhere; there’s no reason for that to be tax deductible.
The former two categories are possibly acceptable, provided that they demonstrably use the donated funds to perform some function that the government would otherwise end up doing, do not proselytize, and are secular and non-discriminatory both in terms of their internal staffing and external beneficiaries.
Zoidlord says:
Wednesday, June 26, 2019 at 4:24 pm
“The failure for FranklingCredits is because of greed.”
No, the attack on retirees’ income is what caused it to fail.
“Paying no taxes is also greedy”
Anyone earning less than the tax-free threshold is greedy?
“About 70 millionaires didn’t pay tax either do you agree ?”
1. You have no idea if they are millionaires because that depends on how many assets they own, not taxable income before allowable deductions.
2. They will have spent vast amounts of money on allowable deductions to get their taxable income below the tax-free threshold. It’s not like they are just spending the money on their lifestyle. I’d be pretty pissed off if I earned $1 million and spent so much of it on allowable tax deductions that I only had less than the tax-free threshhold of $18,200 left over to spend on myself.
“Charities and churches are suppose to help people, not be homophobic，race hating bigotry.”
I understand why you race homophobia – but why are you mentioning race?
“They also not suppose to interfere with politics.”
That’s never stopped lots of them before, in particular environmental charities.
a r says:
Wednesday, June 26, 2019 at 4:30 pm
Good luck with getting Australian voters to agree with you.
Reducing dependence on the Age Pension is an irrelevant criterion for evaluating the effectiveness of compulsory superannuation because the federal government will never have a problem coming up with the currency that is needed for pensions or any other commitment denominated in Australian dollars.
If people think that promoting self-funded retirement is a worthy goal because it means that people are less dependent on the government and this makes people more self-reliant and rugged and immune to the vagaries of government policy, I say in response:
1. Self-funded retirees depended heavily on tax deductions – they got a lot of assistance from the government.
2. Self-funded retirement is inefficient and bloated compared to the pension because people lose a lot of their savings to fees.
3. The Age Pension is a highly reliable form of social security (unlike Newstart).
We should be proud of the Age Pension; we should not cast aspersions on it.
One of the criteria that we should be using when evaluating compulsory superannuation is to examine its impact on inequality of wealth and income.
@ Tristo
There are 3 pillars to support aged persons.
1. Superannuation
2. Savings & assets outside super
3. Age pension
If 1 and 2 fall in value then 3 will kick in.
lizzie @ #1332 Wednesday, June 26th, 2019 – 3:50 pm
Dammit Margaret (MASH) I’ve had to rework my clever plan to infiltrate the movers, rorters and shakers by a process of reverse assimilation.
The plan was to adopt a Liberal (perhaps one a them recently appointed to well paid do nothing positions -Administrative Appeals Tribunal (AAT)) which would only cost the equivalent to an invitation to a wedding – famous for it’s catnip* like qualities of attraction of those whom we wish to vaguely emulate (only until we can reveal our secret identities), collect the family jewellery, raid the safe and decamp to Japan or Norway (see Worlds Best Countries list). I used to claim to be Canadian but now “Jeg er norsk”.
Eventually when all have risen to a tax free status and are casually amused by attending Polo Matches, Far Right riots and other such frivolities the casual laborer – or layabout old codger type – will be king and able to command an exorbitant salary and perks (yacht, Electric Stratoliner, Bathurst winning Lawn Mower and a high rise tower on the dark side of the moon) – finance by Chinese importunists.
So and in conclusion I implore you of faint heart, gather ye rosebuds while ye may and sing along with me –Key of G ♫
♫Gather ye rosebuds ♪while ye may,
Old ♪ Time is still a-flying;
And ♫this same flower ♪that smiles today
To-morrow ♫will be dying.
⚜⚜⚜⚜⚜⚜⚜⚜⚜⚜⚜⚜⚜⚜⚜⚜⚜
In the meanwhile until the plan comes to fruition one should practice a disdainful air, a dismissive sniff while peering over one’s granny glasses and a glassy eyed stare signalling one’s superior status.
*A typical response includes sniffing, chewing, licking, head shaking, followed by chin, cheek, and body rubbing. The body rolling is similar to oestrous patterns and has thought to be an aphrodisiac, but this is unlikely.
For those interested please send cash and bank account details to —
Mr. W. Bowe Esq
with correspondence clearly marked
For the attention of Ms. Abby (of Dear Abby fame).
E & OE – Please address any complaints to my 😇 medical 😇 and
😇 surgical 😇 new best friends at the local Public Hospital.
@Bucephalus
Lol aged pensioners will lose more from this Government it’s called recession.
Fool
Car industry recession we had to have
Retail industry recession we had to have
Housing crises we had to have
Because of greed