Federal election plus five weeks

An already strong result for government in the Senate may be about to get even better, as Cory Bernardi eyes the exit. And yet more on the great pollster failure.

I had a paywalled article in Crikey on the conclusion of the Senate election result, which among other things had this to say:

The Coalition went into the election with 31 senators out of 76 and comes out with 35 — and may be about to go one better if there is anything behind suggestions that Cory Bernardi is set to rejoin the Liberal Party. That would leave the government needing the support of only three crossbenchers to win contested votes.

That could be achieved with the two votes of the Centre Alliance plus that of Jacqui Lambie, who is newly restored to the Senate after falling victim to the Section 44 imbroglio in late 2017. Lambie appears to be co-operating closely with the Centre Alliance, having long enjoyed a warm relationship with the party’s founder Nick Xenophon.

Such a voting bloc would relieve the Morrison government of the need to dirty its hands in dealing with One Nation — though it could certainly do that any time the Centre Alliance members felt inspired to take liberal positions on such issues as asylum seekers and expansion of the national security state.

Since then, talk of Cory Bernardi rejoining the Liberal Party has moved on to suggestions he will leave parliament altogether, creating a casual vacancy that would stand to be filled by the Liberal Party. Bernardi announced he would deregister his Australian Conservatives party on Thursday following its failure to make an impression at the election, and told Sky News the next day that it “might be best for me to leave parliament in the next six months”, although he also said he was “unresolved”. Paul Starick of The Advertiser reports that sources on both sides of the SA Liberal Party’s factional divide say the front-runner would be Georgina Downer, daughter of the former Foreign Minister and twice-unsuccessful lower house candidate for Mayo. The party’s Senate tickets usually pair moderate and Right faction members in the top two positions, and Downer would take a place for the Right that was filled in 2016 by Bernardi, with the other incumbent up for re-election in 2022 being moderate-aligned Simon Birmingham.

In other news, Simon Jackman and Luke Mansillo of the University of Sydney have posted slides from a detailed conference presentation on the great opinion poll failure. Once you get past the technical detail on the first few slides, this shows trend measures that attempt to ascertain the true underlying position throughout the parliamentary term, based on both polling and the actual results from both 2016 and 2019. This suggests the Coalition had its nose in front in Malcolm Turnbull’s last months, and that Labor only led by around 51-49 after he was dumped. An improving trend for the Coalition began in December and accelerated during the April-May campaign period. Also included is an analysis of pollster herding effects, which were particularly pronounced for the Coalition primary vote during the campaign period. Labor and Greens primary vote readings were more dispersed, in large part due to Ipsos’s pecularity of having low primary votes for Labor (accurately, as it turned out) and high ones for the Greens (rather less so).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,716 comments on “Federal election plus five weeks”

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  1. ‘the things you mention would reduce the labour supply. This would change the composition of the workforce, but would not in itself create more demand for labour.’

    And my question is whether or not we really need to create more demand for labour, or rejig the workplace we have.

    ‘Income stress and it’s related debt-stresses are very real many parts of the economy.’

    Yes, but that doesn’t always mean providing work is the solution. You could look at what’s creating the income stress (which in most cases is due to the high cost of accommodation).

    Over employment is a real problem. Whenever the ABS does the figures, the amount of hours people are working that they don’t want to work far exceeds the amount of hours for underemployment.

    A couple of decades ago, the Vic Department of Education offered permanent teachers the opportunity of going part time. In our local school, something like a third of the staff immediately reduced their hours. They didn’t need the money and they didn’t want the work, and it created more positions for people who did need the money and the work.

  2. Jim Chalmers sounds more authoritative and competent talking about the economy and the budget than Frydenberg.

  3. ..and, of course, maybe the reason the Coalition are winning on these grounds is because it’s the ground they created so they can win.

  4. Zoom….in the suburbs of Perth, in the regional centre too, debt-stress, cost-of-living pressures, repressed wages, intense competition for the few jobs available, business closures, shortage of sales….these are the signs of an economy in recession.

    We are in trouble in WA. Serious trouble. This came out in the qualitative research carried out before the election. It’s entirely consistent with campaign experience. It explains the results here.

    Unemployment is rising again here. I know quite a few people who have far too little work to enable them to survive financially for long.

  5. Imo, the Liberals are quite knowingly repressing the economy so they can argue that the only way to ‘grow jobs’ and also ‘balance the budget’ is to cut taxes and cut spending…cut the social spend in the budget….cut the education spend….cut everything.

    They will dismantle everything. They will use high unemployment to do it.

  6. briefly

    Not denying that. WA has some specific problems, which can be slated home to poor management by past governments, coupled with the ‘tyranny of distance’ (harder to move out when moving out means travelling across the continent…)

    I’m not sure that a solution tailored to the situation in WA is the fix we need, however, and (as I’ve said) to buy into that is to play the game by the rules set down by our opponents.

  7. briefly

    Right – so we get back to, is buying into the idea that creating jobs is the answer simply playing their game? Or do we need to be smarter and more visionary than that?

  8. zoomster

    coupled with the ‘tyranny of distance’ (harder to move out when moving out means travelling across the continent…)

    Shed loads of Eastern Staters came to WA during the boom. They’d still have the contacts/ties which would enable them to go back. Although with house prices in Perth having been on a long decline that may present a barrier to that.

  9. Zoom….the ability of the Liberals to out-campaign Labor on jobs is the reason they just won. Their advantage in Queensland and WA is enough to keep them in office. As the economy worsens, they will seek to exploit their brand position in NSW and Victoria too. If they can weaken Labor’s franchise in Victoria, the Liberals will be insurmountable.

  10. A person whose taxable income is $200,000 per year is in the top 2 or 3 percent of all tax filers.

    A person whose taxable income is $270,000 is in the top 1 percent of all tax filers.

    These are definitely high income earners. It is nonsensical to imply otherwise.

  11. Thanks BK for the treasure that is the Dawn Patrol.

    I found the article about Aged Care more than interesting –
    Cassandra Morgan reports that more than 45 per cent of Australia’s residential aged care facilities are running at a loss.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6234103/nearly-half-of-australias-nursing-homes-are-running-at-a-loss/?cs=14225

    The federal government removed the payroll tax subsidy for “for-profit operators” on January 1, 2015, equating to $493,000 in costs for Jindalee Aged Care Residence in Narrabundah.

    “No valid explanation by the government was provided,” Gary Johnson, managing director of Johnson Village Services, which has been the approved provider of Jindalee since 1996, said.

    So all’s well in Aged Care – (apart from not meeting accreditation standards).

    and

    The Morrison government has come under fire for proposing a divisive budget plan that will divert $3.9 billion from education projects into a new fund to help with natural disasters, as it nominates the scheme as one of its top priorities when the new Parliament meets next month.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/stoush-brewing-over-3-9b-education-infrastructure-fund-20190621-p51zx1.html

    This item comes completely within the guidelines set out in the instruction manual for the Current Federal Government
    to wit —
    “1984” by George Orwell combined with “Fahrenheit 451” by Ray Bradbury.

    The Department of Education is responsible for book burning and Department of Renewable Energy will be responsible for building Non Renewable power plants.

    The Department of Parks and Gardens will be maintained by a privatised system of Bulldozer land clearing.
    The care of the Aged and Infirm will come under the auspices of The United Undertakers of Orstraya.

    One in 10 British people believe elderly people should be offered a “reward” if they opt for assisted suicide, new polling suggests.

    Anti-euthanasia campaigners said the finding was “chilling” evidence of deep-seated prejudice towards older people from a small but significant minority of the population.

    They claim that it is proof of the possible dangers of any change in the suicide laws such as the former Lord Chancellor, Lord Falconer’s Assisted Dying Bill which is due to return to Parliament for detailed scrutiny on Friday.

    The bill would allow terminally ill patients judged to have no more than six months to live and a “settled intention” to end their lives to be prescribed a lethal dose of drugs if two doctors agree.

    This will be described in the glossy literature as
    Ta Da –
    Welcome to a –New — Kinder – Gentler Orstraya.

    and so say all of us Hip Hip ……….

    Please study up on Eugenics gentle folk – there will be questions. 🕊🕊🕊🕊

    E & OE

  12. I think the rules of the game – the need for jobs – is not something created by Labor’s opponents. This is the demand expressed by voters. The Liberals are very skilful in campaigning on this. They have been bashing Labor on jobs for 40 years. It’s working.

  13. @samanthamaiden
    16m16 minutes ago

    Reminder: 2024 tax cuts will not “end bracket creep” as @mjrowland68 just claimed on @InsidersABC. To do that you would index the tax income thresholds. They’re not. Suggestion will end bracket creep nonsense. Also, $95 billion estimate re cost was in the budget papers. April 2.

  14. briefly

    That’s exactly what I’m saying. So if they outcampaigned us on jobs, maybe we should be focusing on something else.

  15. The concept of a Green New Deal is that ecological survival needs to be integrated with economic justice, racial justice, and gender equality. We need to comprehensively reorganize and retool the ways that we produce, distribute, and consume in order to drastically reduce our carbon emissions. As part of that process we need to create jobs for all who want to work and we need to remove all forms of oppression and exclusion. It is a worthy and noble endeavour that will inspire our people. It will be so much more effective at energizing people than the traditional campaigns about tax cuts.

  16. briefly

    If there are people who are working who would rather not be working – who would, for example, prefer to spend time with their children – then governments have ways of tackling these issues.

    Not everyone works because they want to. And quite a few people work more than they want to.

  17. Insiders this morning: 4 highly paid journalists advocating for huge tax cuts they themselves will benefit from, while happily discussing how, by the time those tax cuts come into effect, the economy will likely be in recession and unable to support those tax cuts, unless government services (to low income people) are curtailed.

    Weird.

  18. Personal comment alert: Karvelas in sleeveless dress on a cold morning makes me feel even colder (and she comes from Melbourne).

  19. Michael Rowland thinks the Medevac issue is only about building more brick dunnies at Burnie sports fields, as far as Lambie is concerned.

    Ha, ha… we’re so grown up. Let’s all have a giggle about how venal those pollies are.

  20. Sorry if not clear William. Last thread about “panel” yup i was referring to mobs like Essential where my understanding is that they have a large group of people that they sample within , but thie r sampling is always within that group.

  21. No surprises, no revelations, on Insiders. I like the idea that “insiders” provide info that we don’t know, which used to happen, but now it’s just a rehash of what PB has already discussed.

  22. Good Morning

    Cat

    Yes. Spend three years exposing the lies of the right.
    That means ignoring the Greens on the left.

    One example.

    It’s not class warfare or envy to say Labor wants more people to be wealthy enough to pay the tax they oppose.

    Edit: good luck to them.

  23. lizzie @ #81 Sunday, June 23rd, 2019 – 9:56 am

    No surprises, no revelations, on Insiders. I like the idea that “insiders” provide info that we don’t know, which used to happen, but now it’s just a rehash of what PB has already discussed.

    So we should set up a Periscope TV version or a You Tube channel where WE discuss the issues of the day in politics! I think it would be a ratings winner! A bit like Gogglebox. ‘The Poll Bludger Politics Lounge’. 😀

  24. guytaur,
    If The Greens agree to end their perennial attacks on Labor you might have a point. Take it up with Pegasus and get back to me.

  25. Cat

    The Greens get 10% of the vote. Labor can ignore them. What the Greens say only reinforces the Labor vote as long as Labor ignore the Greens.

    It’s Labor that’s the majority party getting the media airtime.
    I am more on the Greens side with policies like an UBI. However that’s not an issue to voters.

    Labor should be just saying. Yes tax increases. We want you to have the opportunity to be wealthy enough to pay tax. Use the vomit principle. Ram the message home while exposing the lies. Keneally has made an excellent start.

    Attacking the Greens does not help Labor win elections

  26. I think Insiders is definitely missing Cassidy’s authority and seriousness. So far the fill ins have dumbed it down and at the rate it’s going will be akin to frothy breakfast TV on the commercial channels.

  27. Rowland: “Why are you persisting with the politics of envy by not supporting a tax cut for all Australians?”

    Question supplied by govt to ABC. So bloody obvious that it’s biased.
    OTOH Rowland might just be thinking he’s smart.

  28. Cat and Lizzie

    Nah. Instead encourage a community radio political show to put cameras in the studio. Do a @MajorityReport or David Pakman or David Doel style show. Have the chat on the YouTube space provided.

  29. C@t in her denial of reality and perpetual reluctance to be wrong, now conflates the Setka matter by linking the Albanese response with the McManus response as being the same.

    1 Albanese acted on the first rumours that Setka had bad mouthed Ms Batty, then immediately shot himself in the foot.

    2. McManus spoke to Setka, then formed the view that he did not bad mouth Ms Batty

    3 Both hold the view that Setka’s other conduct over the years is unacceptable. As do I. As does Doyley, Diogenes and others who have posted on the matter.

    Luckily, in a rule of law based society, each event (“crime”) one is accused of is dealt with separately, and on its own merits. And in this case, so far the matter of Setka bad mouthing Ms Batty has been wanting for evidence.

    And for you for the last time C@t, to say that he may not have bad mouthed Ms Batty is NOT to say that he should remain in his position n relation to OTHER improprieties he may have done, assuming evidence exists.

    Neither of us would want those close to us eg our offspring (or anyone else) to be dealt with on the basis of rumour and innuendo but in the absence of actual evidence, would we C@t.

  30. I think Insiders is definitely missing Cassidy’s authority and seriousness. So far the fill ins have dumbed it down and at the rate it’s going will be akin to frothy breakfast TV on the commercial channels.
    ____
    Maybe it should go into recess until they can get Speers on.

  31. Nicholas @ #66 Sunday, June 23rd, 2019 – 9:32 am

    A person whose taxable income is $200,000 per year is in the top 2 or 3 percent of all tax filers.

    A person whose taxable income is $270,000 is in the top 1 percent of all tax filers.

    Let’s use gross/assessable income rather than taxable. Using the latter introduces a distortionary effect.

    If you’ve got $550k in annual income and are able to deduct away all but $50k of it, you’re still well ahead of someone who earns $50k and doesn’t claim any deductions. The value of treating both those cases as representing the same level of wealth is less than zero.

  32. zoomster says:
    Sunday, June 23, 2019 at 9:42 am
    briefly

    If there are people who are working who would rather not be working – who would, for example, prefer to spend time with their children – then governments have ways of tackling these issues.

    Not everyone works because they want to. And quite a few people work more than they want to.

    Yes…there is a lot of market failure in our system. Some work more than they would prefer. Others get too little work. The wages paid are frequently too low. The market sector is very highly monopolised as well as being populated by armies of micro-contractors, who often also work long hours for poor incomes. The labour force is being continually expanded and workers are required to compete in the dark and on an uneven surface with each other. Competitive pressures on many employers are also very intense.

    These pressures are accentuated by the Liberals very deliberately. They aim for the repression of the many. This is their unspoken mission. It has served them very well in the period since 1996.

  33. guytaur says:
    Sunday, June 23, 2019 at 10:10 am
    Cat

    The Greens get 10% of the vote. Labor can ignore them. What the Greens say only reinforces the Labor vote

    This is entirely false. The Green campaign against Labor has helped destroy the Labor PV and plurality. The Greens make it their business to disable and defeat Labor. The Greens will do their best to ensure another Labor Government is never elected.

  34. The ABC have been “grooming” (that is, promoting) Rowland for some time. I have never heard him make a single remark that hasn’t been fed to him from another source. Training on the puerile Breakfast Show does not a political commentator make.

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