The last two-party preferred count for the lower house is complete, leaving the Coalition with a national two-party preferred total of 51.53%, which is exactly the result that was projected by the opinion polls, albeit for the wrong party. The Australian Electoral Commission website continues to record that 288 declaration vote envelopes remain unprocessed, of which 234 are in the seat of Kingsford Smith, but I suspect that may just reflect tardiness in keeping these numbers updated.
We should also have the last Senate result finalised this morning, that being in Victoria, where a result of three Liberal, two Labor and one Greens is assured. Counts were finalised yesterday in Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia. To complement previous efforts for New South Wales and Tasmania, I offer the following displays showing how the preference distributions proceeded. In each case they record where the votes stood after the election of candidates with full quotas at the start of the count, and also in the final stages, where three seats were decided in Queensland, and two were decided in Western Australia and South Australia.
First up, Queensland, where the result was three for the Coalition (Paul Scarr, Susan McDonald and Gerard Rennick, all newcomers) and one apiece for Labor (Nita Green, also a newcomer), One Nation (Malcolm Roberts, returning after falling foul of Section 44 and having his seat pass to Fraser Anning, whose own party proved uncompetitive) and the Greens (Larissa Waters, another Section 44 casualty who had already returned to the Senate after her successor, Andrew Bartlett, agreed to make way for her ahead of the election). Queensland was the one state where the result was not clear long in advance, although in the final analysis it wasn’t really all that close. The Coalition won two seats straight off the bat and Labor one, leaving Green, Roberts, Waters and Labor’s second candidate, Chris Ketter, in the mix for the last three. There never seemed much doubt that the fourth seat would go to One Nation and the fifth to the Coalition, but Labor might have hoped the dual miracle of a strong performance in late counting and unexpectedly strong preference flows could have given Ketter the last seat at the expense of Waters. In fact though, Ketter trailed Waters by 52,767 votes (1.8%) at the start of proceedings, which widened to 78,681 (2.7%) by the end, with Waters doing predictably well out of preferences from Animal Justice and Help End Marijuana Prohibition – although she didn’t quite make it to a quota.
Now to Western Australia, which has returned three Liberals (incumbents Linda Reynolds and Slade Brockman, and newcomer Matt O’Sullivan), two Labor (incumbents Patrick Dodson and Louise Pratt) and one Greens (incumbent Jordon Steele-John). Reynolds, Brockman and Dodson were elected off the bat; O’Sullivan got most of the way there when the 1.4% Nationals vote was distributed; and Pratt and Steele-John were always going to get there late in the count ahead of One Nation incumbent Peter Georgiou.
South Australia produced the same result as Western Australia (and indeed New South Wales and Victoria, if the Coalition is considered collectively), the three Liberals being incumbents Anne Ruston and David Fawcett, and newcomer Alex Antic; Labor returning incumbent Alex Gallacher and newcomer Marielle Smith; and the Sarah Hanson-Young retaining her seat for the Greens. The top two on the Liberal and Labor tickets were elected off the bat; Hanson-Young made a quota after the third Labor candidate and the Help End Marijuana Prohibition candidate dropped out; and Antic stayed well clear of One Nation throughout to take the last seat.
The overall picture in the Senate was summarised here a few weeks ago – all that’s different now is that the “likely” qualification can be removed from Queensland.
Update: Victorian Senate result
The Victorian result was finalised this morning (Wednesday), producing the anticipated result of three seats for the Liberals (incumbents James Patterson and Jane Hume, and newcomer David Van), two for Labor (Raff Ciccone, who came to the Senate after filling a casual vacancy in March, and Jess Walsh, a newcomer) and one for the Greens (incumbent Janet Rice). The chart below follows the same format as those above, and shows that this was not a close run thing. The Coalition and Labor both had two quotas on ticket votes, leaving two seats to be determined through the preference distribution. Labor’s third candidate, incumbent Gavin Marshall, was never in contention, and his exclusion pushed the Greens to a quota with Van, Derryn Hinch and One Nation still in the count. One Nation then were excluded, leaving David Van well ahead of Hinch to take the final seat, without making it to a quota.
Unless you are a woman wanting to run for election – who get vetted out. Even tho I remember that constitutionally they are allowed.
Simon² Katich® @ #1000 Friday, June 21st, 2019 – 6:14 pm
‘almost’ democratic 😆
Women hold 6 percent of seats in Iran…about where we were not so long ago, and where the conservatives are aiming at.
Oh. So they are only partly vetted in seats but totally banned as presidential candidates?
Nowhere is fully democratic.
https://www.eiu.com/topic/democracy-index
I have always thought the Economist was harsh on Iran in their index.
RD
So a bit like the US then 🙂
Simon² Katich® @ #1005 Friday, June 21st, 2019 – 6:29 pm
A country where everyone over 18yo can nominate and everyone over 18yo can vote – would you call that ‘fully democratic’ ?
It was obvious from the outset that the Folau “dispute” wasn’t a free speech dispute.
It was instead a demarcation and financial dispute about whether Folau was to be a paid mouthpiece (paid $1.6m p.a. or whatever) for the organisation actually paying him $1.6m p.a. (Rugby Australia), or whether he was to be a paid mouthpiece for the Folau Church, but still paid ($1.6m p. a.) by Rugby Australia.
When one is a paid mouthpiece, it’s “he who pays the piper calls the tune”
Simon² Katich®
Hilarious that the data shows the US is a flawed democracy while most Americans would tend to believe they live in the world’s greatest democracy, more fool them!
Iran has slowly been getting more flexible with female attire and what they will or will not allow them to get away with. I guess that will all go in the bin now as soon as an opportunistic mullah makes the case that allowing that and more flexible relationships with the West only sees you getting trodden on by them. Ergo, it must have been the wrong thing to do. 😐
Here’s a bit of irony. Folau’s church pays the Kenthurst Uniting Church $150 a week to rent its building. The UC would be one of the most tolerant churches in Australia, totally different to its tenant.
“A country where everyone over 18yo can nominate and everyone over 18yo can vote – would you call that ‘fully democratic’ ?”
Australia doesn’t qualify then
“Billionaire retailer Solomon Lew has called on Parliament to stop playing “irresponsible” political games and pass the government’s tax package.
See? It’s the rich retail guys who need the lower taxes!!
On Friday, Mr Lew said the economy needed stimulus measures “now”.
https://www.theage.com.au/business/the-economy/irresponsible-retail-magnate-calls-for-urgent-passage-of-tax-cuts-20190621-p52009.html”
_________________
Bula! Checking in from Fiji.
Re: Solie Lew’s ruminations. I would have thought that given the position his labels occupy in the retail threads market that he’d be pumping the government for a massive bump in New Start, the disability pension and for policies to lift the minimum wages and incomes for the bottom 5 deciles more generally: they’re ain’t many folk on $200K buying his shit.
But hey what would I know.
How good is ScoMo, hey!
“How good is ScoMo, hey!”
Fkn good
Must be nice in Fiji now A_E.
Good place. Nice people.
Bula!
Stop Adani!
Looking at YOU Federal Labor. Only you: fie on you fence sitters with your nuanced blah blah about rules, regulations and processes (so boring Gen X, didn’t you know). …
Meanwhile:
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/political-football-controversial-nsw-coal-project-granted-mining-licence-20190621-p52056.html
How good are the Greens.
How good is ScoMo!
““How good is ScoMo, hey!”
Fkn good”
Fkn Great maaate. So great I’m gunna punch on at Northies tonight. Maybe grope a shelia and post selfies of me drinking my own piss before unloading on the tiled floor of Engadine Maccas. Tomorrow I’m going to drink Kava with Israel before going street preaching wiv some mates down by the wall at Darlo. Good times. …
The weather is incredible BB. Frack 11 degrees (Melbourne) or 13 degrees (‘sunny’ Sydney) for a joke.
““Billionaire retailer Solomon Lew has called on Parliament to stop playing “irresponsible” political games and pass the government’s tax package”
Self-interested bleating. Ignore.
Don’t just ignore, start erecting (metaphorical) guillotines so these parasitic arseholes know exactly what with think of their greedy soulless blights on our community.
Foulau’s just a patsy of his church elders, extremely close to Morrison’s happy-clappers. It’ll be interesting how this pans out. For this very impressionable young man, who’s very wealthy, but seeks funding from all and sundry, I think he’ll go done the plughole. I hope it goes all the way to the High Court, where it’s postulated his warped view will be rebutted – and cost him heaps! The cost of youth can be exacting.
“Don’t just ignore, start erecting (metaphorical) guillotines so these parasitic arseholes know exactly what with think of their greedy soulless blights on our community.”
Sorry to burst your bubble, but if the French mob, circa 1789, were comprised of Australians teleported through time from 2019, they’d actually cheer Marie Antionette’s Apocryphal “let them eat cake” even as they starved.
How good is ScoMo!
The Tiser saying Corgi is going to quit the Senate with Georgina Downer favoured to take over.
Diogenes @ #1023 Friday, June 21st, 2019 – 8:34 pm
She’ll probably do less harm there. 😐
Mavis
If it goes to the High Court they might rule the clause in his contract about not making homophobic religious comments was unconstitutional.
Mavis Davis @ #1021 Friday, June 21st, 2019 – 8:32 pm
I blame his father. Brainwashed the boy from a young age. I mean, who calls their child ‘Israel’? Only someone who believes in the End Times palaver.
So Georgina’s got her job for life, then.
Diogenes @ #1023 Friday, June 21st, 2019 – 6:34 pm
A woman who failed twice to win a previously very safe Liberal seat in the lower house. Clearly a woman of merit so of course she is slotted into the Senate.
How good is that?!
Andrew_Earlwood
You are making a fundamental mistake (trendily called a category error) if you think Mr. Lew is some sort of capitalist making most of his money producing and selling goods and services for a profit.
The reality is that Mr. Lew is no capitalist at all, but instead a tax mendicant who ‘makes’ most of his money as a concessionaire operating a tax preference scheme funded by his benefactor the Commonwealth of Australia. Eventually he’ll exhaust his ability to bilk other people’s money thus, though unfortunately not without adverse effects on many other people.
Diogenes:
I doubt it.
The head of house Chez Warrigal (canine) wishes to exercise her royal prerogative and ever-so-winsomely begs Bludgers to refrain from taking her breed in vain in respect of Mr Bernadi.
She was embarrassed enough by the Pembrokeshire Brexit vote (which was something like 57% on the silly side of the count).
>The Greens have now lost seven elections in a row with the end result being 1 seat out of 176 seats in the House which determines the government of the day.
How do you get 176 seats from a 151 seat house?
Cat:
So do I. He’s one of the most gifted RU players ever, but he succumbed to the cash, eschewing his dear father’s advice?
Would Ms Downer go in as a Liberal or as a Conservative?
I read today that some Conservative members want to keep the organisation alive despite what Bernardi is doing. In that case, couldn’t they nominate somebody besides Downer (probably a RW religious person) to replace Bernardi in the Senate?
Diogenes:
It’s very simple: if one wants free speech for oneself one should not accept a salary of $1.6m/annum. For historical context see: Christ, J and Iscariot, J in re Pieces of Silver, 30.
Meanwhile the ACL goes into libraries and discovers the dark underbelly of libraries:
Mavis Davis @ #1033 Friday, June 21st, 2019 – 9:01 pm
Isn’t his father also his manager?
citizen @ #1036 Friday, June 21st, 2019 – 9:09 pm
I believe Extreme Christianity in libraries is promoting an ideology to children.
“Good times. …”
F’k’n A
Do people still say that?
Concerning Folau I fail to see why, from a left-progressive point of view , why employment contracts should be give so much authority. If they include repressive conditions, and that includes restrictions on basic rights such as religious and political belief, I am quite happy to see them invalidated.
As usual the identity left is putting their own moral sanctimony first in the Folau case.
“Israel Folau was strongly considering deleting his infamous Instagram post and saving his lucrative rugby career before a phone call to his deeply religious father Eni changed everything.
“You’ll go to hell, son,” were the words the Sunday Telegraph reported the pastor told Folau, who was sacked by Rugby Australia last month, following a post proclaiming homosexuals and other so-called “sinners” were destined for hell unless they repented.
Former Wallabies star Folau, 30, had his four-year, $4m contract torn up after he refused to apologise or remove the offending post.
“Had he taken that step, and shown contrition, Folau would have been impossible to sack,” the Telegraph reported.
“Eni told his son that if he pulled down that post, Folau would be disowning the words of the Lord, a sacrilege that would send him to hell.”
Conversation
Rick Wilson
@TheRickWilson
I’m starting to believe the world’s best negotiator isn’t a very good negotiator.
Exclusive: Trump warned Iran via Oman that U.S. attack was…
Iranian officials told Reuters on Friday that Tehran had received a message from U.S. President Donald Trump through Oman overnight warning that a U.S. attack on Iran was imminent.
reuters.com
I really don’t know, Cat; but if he is, he should get a new father.
Historyintime
If your political and religious views interfered with the performance of your job and or has an adverse effect on the employer then it is quite reasonable. Folau ticks both boxes. As well as playing he is there to promote and sell the sport he is employed to play and the image the game wants to project. He can be as big a god botherer as he likes but when it has an effect on his work place then it matters.
I just had a look at the Go Fund Me website, searching on “folau”. There are a heap of anti Folau fundraising pages, many promising to donate any money raised to suitable charities.
https://www.gofundme.com/mvc.php?route=homepage_norma/search&term=folau
If God wants you to say something, God already knows the consequences, and you , as his follower, have to accept them.
Abraham was ready to kill his son, because he believed that was God’s will.
Losing a multi million contract is nothing compared to that.
So a Liberal wanker becomes a Family Values wanker, then a Christian Democrat wanker, fails at being a born-again Liberal wanker, resigns and gives his job to a twice rejected Liberal wanker, who now styles herself as a Christian Democrat wanker, before finally resigning as one of them to finally emerge – as does a butterfly emerge from being a grub – as the Liberal wanker she always was?
And, as ScoMo smirks his condescending smirk and tells everyone how good Georgina is, what an asset, how valuable to come from a family of nation-builders etc. etc, the media will pause for a second – brows furrowed, pencils in hand – nod approval, and then get back to writing that column on how Albo is under severe, perhaps fatal pressure concerning something or other.
I’m sure I must have missed something, but I can’t figure out what it is.
citizen @ #1045 Friday, June 21st, 2019 – 9:28 pm
That there may be, but in terms of dollars raised the “Folau’s Personal Slush-fund” one is leading the pack by miles.
Andrew_Earlwood:
You’re at your best this evening.
“If your political and religious views interfered with the performance of your job and or has an adverse effect on the employer then it is quite reasonable”
There goes strike action then.
I’m happy to say that this Folau person appears to have acted like a bit of a dick, but I can’t say I’m that comfortable with the current practice of going after people through their employment.
Too easy to see this coming back to bite.