The last two-party preferred count for the lower house is complete, leaving the Coalition with a national two-party preferred total of 51.53%, which is exactly the result that was projected by the opinion polls, albeit for the wrong party. The Australian Electoral Commission website continues to record that 288 declaration vote envelopes remain unprocessed, of which 234 are in the seat of Kingsford Smith, but I suspect that may just reflect tardiness in keeping these numbers updated.
We should also have the last Senate result finalised this morning, that being in Victoria, where a result of three Liberal, two Labor and one Greens is assured. Counts were finalised yesterday in Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia. To complement previous efforts for New South Wales and Tasmania, I offer the following displays showing how the preference distributions proceeded. In each case they record where the votes stood after the election of candidates with full quotas at the start of the count, and also in the final stages, where three seats were decided in Queensland, and two were decided in Western Australia and South Australia.
First up, Queensland, where the result was three for the Coalition (Paul Scarr, Susan McDonald and Gerard Rennick, all newcomers) and one apiece for Labor (Nita Green, also a newcomer), One Nation (Malcolm Roberts, returning after falling foul of Section 44 and having his seat pass to Fraser Anning, whose own party proved uncompetitive) and the Greens (Larissa Waters, another Section 44 casualty who had already returned to the Senate after her successor, Andrew Bartlett, agreed to make way for her ahead of the election). Queensland was the one state where the result was not clear long in advance, although in the final analysis it wasn’t really all that close. The Coalition won two seats straight off the bat and Labor one, leaving Green, Roberts, Waters and Labor’s second candidate, Chris Ketter, in the mix for the last three. There never seemed much doubt that the fourth seat would go to One Nation and the fifth to the Coalition, but Labor might have hoped the dual miracle of a strong performance in late counting and unexpectedly strong preference flows could have given Ketter the last seat at the expense of Waters. In fact though, Ketter trailed Waters by 52,767 votes (1.8%) at the start of proceedings, which widened to 78,681 (2.7%) by the end, with Waters doing predictably well out of preferences from Animal Justice and Help End Marijuana Prohibition – although she didn’t quite make it to a quota.
Now to Western Australia, which has returned three Liberals (incumbents Linda Reynolds and Slade Brockman, and newcomer Matt O’Sullivan), two Labor (incumbents Patrick Dodson and Louise Pratt) and one Greens (incumbent Jordon Steele-John). Reynolds, Brockman and Dodson were elected off the bat; O’Sullivan got most of the way there when the 1.4% Nationals vote was distributed; and Pratt and Steele-John were always going to get there late in the count ahead of One Nation incumbent Peter Georgiou.
South Australia produced the same result as Western Australia (and indeed New South Wales and Victoria, if the Coalition is considered collectively), the three Liberals being incumbents Anne Ruston and David Fawcett, and newcomer Alex Antic; Labor returning incumbent Alex Gallacher and newcomer Marielle Smith; and the Sarah Hanson-Young retaining her seat for the Greens. The top two on the Liberal and Labor tickets were elected off the bat; Hanson-Young made a quota after the third Labor candidate and the Help End Marijuana Prohibition candidate dropped out; and Antic stayed well clear of One Nation throughout to take the last seat.
The overall picture in the Senate was summarised here a few weeks ago – all that’s different now is that the “likely” qualification can be removed from Queensland.
Update: Victorian Senate result
The Victorian result was finalised this morning (Wednesday), producing the anticipated result of three seats for the Liberals (incumbents James Patterson and Jane Hume, and newcomer David Van), two for Labor (Raff Ciccone, who came to the Senate after filling a casual vacancy in March, and Jess Walsh, a newcomer) and one for the Greens (incumbent Janet Rice). The chart below follows the same format as those above, and shows that this was not a close run thing. The Coalition and Labor both had two quotas on ticket votes, leaving two seats to be determined through the preference distribution. Labor’s third candidate, incumbent Gavin Marshall, was never in contention, and his exclusion pushed the Greens to a quota with Van, Derryn Hinch and One Nation still in the count. One Nation then were excluded, leaving David Van well ahead of Hinch to take the final seat, without making it to a quota.
I have heard the same. But I wouldnt want to be a retired Floridian on a cultural bus tour of Iran after Trump lands a few bombs that might kill an Iranian child or two (or at least claimed to be killed by Iranian propaganda).
From one Wallaby to another…
Drew Mitchell, you bloody legend.
See? It’s the rich retail guys who need the lower taxes!!
https://www.theage.com.au/business/the-economy/irresponsible-retail-magnate-calls-for-urgent-passage-of-tax-cuts-20190621-p52009.html
SK
“I have heard the same. But I wouldnt want to be a retired Floridian on a cultural bus tour of Iran after Trump lands a few bombs that might kill an Iranian child or two ”
Agreed. I wouldn’t want to be in any country being bombed by the US.
It helps to have darkish skin and a good beard.
I am no supporter of Fitzgibbon, but I’m not sure he’s so wrong in urging Labor to just let the Coalies pass what they want.
After 6 years of Coalie shambles, (or 10 years if you start when the rot really set in, in 2009 when they selected Abbott …. or should I say when Abbott selected Abbott, given that he won by one vote, his own) to think that so many voted for them, one has to ask what will wake such voters up.
Joyce won handsomely in New England despite all his incompetence, corruption, personal mischief with a staffer etc etc. So I ask once again, what will it take.
I think there is only one answer. It will take pain …. actual, economic pain. Rudd n Swann saved them from pain in 2008-09, with no thanks. So many voters have yet to experience financial pain. Anyone under about 45 years old has not been through any real economic crisis. And I suspect that that age group contributes disproportionally to the large personal stats.
Sure, many are experiencing financial stress as the monthly income barely covers the monthly bills, but most get buy …. for example mortgagee sales are not yet a big issue; only the possibility of them is.
In the medical sense, pain is good. It is a signal that tells us something is wrong, and we quickly seek to find out the cause, and get it fixed.
Maybe the time has come for some financial pain.
Angus Taylor meeting headwinds. Looking forward to this.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jun/21/liberal-states-in-talks-to-revive-turnbulls-dumped-energy-policy?CMP=share_btn_tw
Simon² Katich® says: Friday, June 21, 2019 at 4:13 pm
Agreed. I wouldn’t want to be in any country being bombed by the US.
It helps to have darkish skin and a good beard.
*********************************************************************
George Carlin – US and War and Brown People :
We like war! We’re a war-like people! We like war because we’re good at it! You know why we’re good at it? Cause we get a lot of practice. This country’s only 200 years old and already, we’ve had 10 major wars. We average a major war every 20 years in this country so we’re good at it! And it’s a good thing we are; we’re not very good at anything else anymore! Huh? Can’t build a decent car, can’t make a TV set or a VCR worth a fuck, got no steel industry left, can’t educate our young people, can’t get health care to our old people, but we can bomb the shit out of your country all right! Huh? Especially if your country is full of brown people; oh we like that don’t we? That’s our hobby! That’s our new job in the world: bombing brown people. Iraq, Panama, Grenada, Libya, you got some brown people in your country, tell them to watch the fuck out or we’ll goddamn bomb them! Well when’s the last white people you can remember that we bombed? Can you remember the last white— can you remember ANY white people we’ve ever bombed? The Germans, those are the only ones and that’s only because they were trying to cut in on our action. They wanted to dominate the world! BULLSHIT! THAT’S OUR FUCKING JOB! ! !
“Albanese is “under pressure” to support Morrison’s entire eight(?) year tax package, while not even questioning the LNP’s motives in pushing tax cuts – for high income earners – two elections in the future.”
How should Albanese deal with this? The second idea that came to me was that Albanese should ask “how would a Coalition Opposition deal with a signature policy of a newly elected Labor Government?” Then do likewise. Short version: “what would Abbott do?”.
Or he could just tell them to shove it.
I’ve always argued against any cuts in tax, but Albanese has no choice but to pass the tax cuts if he wants to start to repair Labors dis-engagement with voters.
Chalmers then has a task in preparing an economic framework that provides fairness and sustainability in social policy.
Folau has a disclaimer on his Go Fund Me page – he can spend the money collected any way he likes and no correspondence will be entered into. Sounds like a good racket to me.
Poor Lyle Shelton is a lost soul, waiting for offers. Who’d take him on? 😆
https://www.outinperth.com/lyle-shelton-says-his-political-future-is-unknown-at-this-time/#.XQxph0ey4hM.twitter
‘Pegasus says:
Friday, June 21, 2019 at 3:28 pm
CC
https://www.theguardian.com/science/commentisfree/2019/jun/21/climate-crisis-what-you-can-do-while-government-does-nothing
Since the election, sign-ups to climate organisations have peaked. The Stop Adani campaign has had 3,658 new supporters sign up since the election, while new organisation Parents for Climate doubled its membership in the two weeks after the election.’
No amount of self-righteous astroturfing by the Greens is going to make any difference at all. While the Greens appear reluctant to acknowledge the basic fact, what DOES make a difference is holding the majority of seats in the House (Greens – 1 seat after 32 years).
Anyway, do keep hypotnising yourselves: your Adani carnivale deserves endless self gratulation.
And, seriously, not to worry. The Greens have now lost seven elections in a row by an average 2PP of over 90%, but Di Natale is young enough to go round for another fifteen elections!
pR
‘Well when’s the last white people you can remember that we bombed? Can you remember the last white— can you remember ANY white people we’ve ever bombed? ‘
The Serbs. On behalf of the Bosnian muslims!
Boerwar @ #965 Friday, June 21st, 2019 – 4:58 pm
I doubt that’s correct. It would require literally every Labor voter to have preferenced the Coalition ahead of the Greens. I doubt many (aside from perhaps briefly) would do that.
A proper 2PP count between the Greens and the Coalition would come out worse but not drastically worse than the 2PP count between Labor and the Coalition , I’d think.
Urgent action is required to save the economy.
We must, without delay, pass tax cuts for people with high taxable income, taking effect from 2024.
Decisive next Decade – it’s our DNA!
No consistent climate change action for the last 27 years?
Don’t blame me. I didn’t vote for the Liberals, the Nationals, the UAP, PHON or the Greens during that period.
I voted Labor.
EGT
LOL.
‘a r says:
Friday, June 21, 2019 at 5:04 pm
Boerwar @ #965 Friday, June 21st, 2019 – 4:58 pm
The Greens have now lost seven elections in a row by an average 2PP of over 90%
I doubt that’s correct.’
The Greens have now lost seven elections in a row with the average vote AGAINST the Greens during that time being well above 90%.
Boerwar
says:
Friday, June 21, 2019 at 5:00 pm
pR
‘Well when’s the last white people you can remember that we bombed? Can you remember the last white— can you remember ANY white people we’ve ever bombed? ‘
__________________________
The Germans got a thorough bombing last time I checked. and they were all for whiteness!
The US has now banned American flights over the Persian/Arabian Gulf.
Clearing the decks.
Ch 10 news just now showed part of Folau’s slickly produced video justifying himself and asking for money.
The news segment was none too favourable towards Folau.
Note the mixed signals.
Is fuck up.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jun/21/united-airlines-halts-some-flights-mumbai-to-avoid-iran-after-drone-attack
On a more cheerful note, tonight is the Winter Solstice, 1:54 am East Australian Time June 22. Longer, warmer days are coming.
citizen
says:
Friday, June 21, 2019 at 5:11 pm
Ch 10 news just now showed part of Folau’s slickly produced video justifying himself and asking for money.
The news segment was none too favourable towards Folau.
______________________
Yes I saw him plead for protection against discrimination….without even the hint of irony.
Why are people prating about an ex footy player with disagreeable views while we are drifting into war?
Why is the Australian Government yet to make a public statement?
Why have note Payne, Reynolds, Morrison, Frydenberg or McCormack taken us into their confidence about the issues the nation faces and the options being considered?
WHERE THE BLOODY HELL ARE THEY ALL?
Boerwar @ #972 Friday, June 21st, 2019 – 5:09 pm
you sound excited ..?
Many people are tweeting that Folau’s “life and death” problem is not equal to a cancer sufferer begging for money. Also, he already owns at least two $million plus properties. If this is so incredibly important to him, he could raise the money himself.
citizen @ #962 Friday, June 21st, 2019 – 4:43 pm
You know, maybe it’s a good thing if Folau soaks the Evos. 😀
Steve777 @ #975 Friday, June 21st, 2019 – 5:12 pm
Yuck. Not a fan of longer, warmer days. 🙁
From an LGBTI minister.
Boerwar @ #971 Friday, June 21st, 2019 – 5:06 pm
Sure, if you want to count evert primary vote that the Greens didn’t get as a vote against them.
Pretty sure that also means that about 65% of people voted AGAINST Labor. And about 70% of people voted AGAINST the Liberals. And 91% voted AGAINST the Nationals.
That means Labor won, right, because the fewest number of people opposed them? 🙂
phoenixRED says:
Friday, June 21, 2019 at 4:22 pm
George Carlin on Global Warming:
https://youtu.be/BB0aFPXr4n4
‘a r says:
Friday, June 21, 2019 at 5:19 pm
Boerwar @ #971 Friday, June 21st, 2019 – 5:06 pm
The Greens have now lost seven elections in a row with the average vote AGAINST the Greens during that time being well above 90%.
The Greens have now lost seven elections in a row with the end result being 1 seat out of 176 seats in the House which determines the government of the day.
At this rate, the Greens will obtain a majority in the House at a time when sea levels will be 7 meters higher than they are now.
BUT NOT TO WORRY! They are astroturfing like crazy as we speak!
There is a fackelwanderungen happening in the street tomorrow night. Brrrrrrrrr.
The main reason there is a difference of opinion about whether the drone was in international airspace seems to be that Iran AND the UAE both claim two small islands at the inner reaches of the Strait of Hormuz.
From the Iranian perspective, the two small islands result in a considerable increase in Iranian sovereign waters towards the middle of the Strait of Hormuz. The US appears to have decided that the Iranian claim is invalid and whoopsadaisy!
The two islands are currently administered by Iran.
The US stated that the drone crashed in international waters.
Iran has claimed picking up bits and pieces in its national waters.
@Rex Douglas
I agree with you, especially given we have a full preferential voting system. Because the vast majority of Greens will preference Labor no matter what, especially given this current federal government. However I see a chance of either the Greens or a new Progressive party overtaking the Labor party in support.
Sydney’s coldest day is statistically 9 July
Tristo
We seem to spawn more offshoots from the Liberals than from the left side.
Tristo @ #989 Friday, June 21st, 2019 – 5:29 pm
I like to think positively of Labors future and think it will bounce back.
This will happen if Albanese and Mark Butler move Labor to a more democratic model controlled by the rank and file – and with that a sensible progressive policy platform free of self-wedges.
lizzie @ #983 Friday, June 21st, 2019 – 5:18 pm
Israel’s type pick and choose the bits of the bible that suit them.
C@t
Folau has been reared on the punitive Old Testament and has a very narrow sense of morality, but it doesn’t stop him from enjoying his privileged lifestyle.
Even if the islands were involved, such disputed areas are almost always noted as disputed, the US military would know it was disputed. In such cases you just assume it is off limits – unless you are gunning for a reaction.
The other issue is territorial waters. International Airspace is different (kinda) to international waters. In the EEZ, the surface of the water is international waters, but the neighbouring state has rights to what’s below the surface. If the crashed drone is in the EEZ, Iran could well claim it is for them to pick it up. They would have to give it back – after they check it out first.
“C@tmomma
You know, maybe it’s a good thing if Folau soaks the Evos. ”
The Ch 10 news said he’s given lots to the church run by his father, so it’s more like a funds transfer from one group of happy clappers to another!
Can a donor to Go Fund Me ask for their money back?
SK
And what bad luck that all the ‘interesting bits’ would have dropped off in the crash 🙂
I travelled across Iran a few years ago and they are the friendliest people in the world. Educated, curious, they universally despise the religious leaders and aren’t afraid to say so. The country does not come across as particularly religious, and the women are not oppressed. It would be a terrible tragedy of these people get bombed.
“Boerwar says:
Friday, June 21, 2019 at 5:14 pm
Why are people prating about an ex footy player with disagreeable views while we are drifting into war?”
The culture wars, dontyaknow.
It’s easier to engage in that than deal with reality.
Just as an aside. Voting in Iranian elections are generally free and fair – with a turnout in 2017 of 75%.
Whilst some vetting does occur in who can run for election, it is not so extreme as to make the election meaningless.