Tasmanian Senate entrails examined

As the finalised Senate results are unrolled one by one, a deep dive into the preference distribution from Tasmania.

A summary of what remains to be resolved of election counting:

• The button is yet to be pressed on five of the eight Senate counts, with Tasmania, the Australian Capital Territory and Northern Territory completed and fully published. More on the Tasmanian result below.

• The Coalition-versus-Labor two-party preferred preference count for Farrer is 54% complete, with the remainder presumably to be knocked over today. Only then will we have a definitive total for the national two-party preferred, but the remaining uncertainty is relevant only to the second decimal place: to the first, the Coalition will finish with 51.5%, a swing of either 1.1% or 1.2%.

• Preference distributions for lower house seats are yet to be published, though in some cases they have assuredly been conducted. As noted previously, only with the distribution could the theoretical (though not practical) possibility of One Nation winning Hunter from Labor be ruled out.

I will be taking a deep dive into each Senate result as they are reported. As discussed here, none of the results are seriously in doubt, with the highly arguable exception of Queensland.

The chart below shows how the late stages of the preference distribution for Tasmania proceeded, after the election of the first three candidates and the elimination of lower order candidates and parties (the latter included independent Craig Garland, who managed a disappointing 3475 votes, compared with the 6633 he polled at last year’s Braddon by-election). The first three were the top two on the Liberal ticket, Richard Colbeck and Claire Chandler, and the first on Labor’s, Carol Brown. Both Liberal and Labor polled clear of two quotas (the primary vote totals can be found here), but owing to Tasmania’s high rate of below-the-line voting (28% in this case), neither scored over two quotas on above-the-line votes alone. However, Chandler was promptly elected after Colbeck as most of his below-the-line votes proceeded straight down the Liberal ticket.

The situation for Labor was more complicated owing to Lisa Singh, who again had to campaign for below-the-line votes to retain her seat after the party placed her fourth on the ticket. This she was able to accomplish at the 2016 double dissolution, when she won Labor’s fifth seat from number six on the ticket. This time though she had the effectively impossible task of winning one of two Labor seats from number four. Singh scored 5.68% of the first preference vote, slightly down on her 6.12% in 2016. This meant she remained in the count longer than the candidate one place above her, who on both occasions was John Short, but she was well behind the second candidate on the Labor ticket, Catryna Bilyk, who received all the above-the-line votes remaining after the election of Brown.

As the chart demonstrates, the race for the last three seats was not close – Labor was always going to win a second seat; Liberal and Labor were both only slightly in excess of two quotas; and the respective vote shares of 12.57% for the Greens and 8.92% for the Jacqui Lambie Network guaranteed them both a seat. Nick McKim of the Greens edged over the line to take the fourth seat after the preferences of various minor parties were distributed. Bilyk and Lambie were both pushed over a quota at the point where Singh was excluded, very slightly behind One Nation candidate Matthew Stephen, although it would have made no difference if Stephen had gone out first. The result was thus clear-cut enough that all elected candidates achieved quotas in their own right, which is not guaranteed under the new Senate electoral system under which some votes can exhaust.

The table below records “four-party preferred” preference splits for those parties that failed to win seats (including Craig Garland as “Group O”).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

445 comments on “Tasmanian Senate entrails examined”

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  1. zoomster
    says:
    Monday, June 17, 2019 at 5:11 pm
    nath
    That sounds highly unlikely. I don’t know of any school which didn’t score either a science building or a school hall. I’ve got lists of funding for schools in Indi – none of them missed out, and that was in the time Mirabella was the MP.
    __________________________________
    Didn’t they start counting the COLA’s as school halls at one stage. What can I say, my local primary has the same old buildings plus demountables and a COLA. Unless they are hiding an underground facility there somewhere.

  2. Was speaking to people today in the food suppliers sector relating to deli type stuff.
    They say it has been so very quiet over past few weeks. Retailers have said that they are attributing down turn to end of financial year.
    Why would people be spending less on food stuff based on financial year. Found that observation very odd

  5. Dutton used all his evil arts (and lots of money) to retain his seat.

    The minister seems to think that so long as he can mention paedophiles, terrorists or people-smugglers – or attack the Labor Party – he can justify anything. But Dutton’s contempt for public accountability confirms that he is the last person who should ever have been entrusted with the home affairs ministry or legislative powers that are turning Australia into a police state.
    …
    All of this suggests it may be unrealistic to hope for a rush of goodwill towards journalists from the Morrison government, or that it will suddenly roll over and protect press freedom. The widespread outrage at the AFP’s raids on Smethurst and the ABC certainly appears to have passed by the home affairs minister, who is still heading in the other direction. Buoyed by the federal election result, Dutton is not interested in softening his position on national security at all.

    https://www.themonthly.com.au/today/paddy-manning/2019/17/2019/1560749238/dutton-concedes-nothing

  6. All Greens and Liberals and Nationals wannabe cancer patients and people with rotting teeth might enjoy buyer’s remorse some time over the next three years.

  7. You said that all the schools in Indi were rebuilt but now say that it was just a science building or a school hall. That’s not a rebuild.

  8. zoomster @ #248 Monday, June 17th, 2019 – 5:13 pm

    ‘…there are still 6345 demountables used in Victorian schools as of 2016.’

    Yes, because the population has grown since then, and new areas opened up and are waiting for schools to be built. Schools use demountables whilst waiting for other buildings to be upgraded.

    And, of course, the Gillard funds could not go, under the Constitution, to building actual classrooms, although there was a bit of fancy footwork which saw ‘science buildings’ having a few more rooms than they actually needed….

    https://www.premier.vic.gov.au/28-new-schools-for-growing-school-communities/

    Twenty-eight new schools accommodating more than 15,000 students will be built and planned for in the fastest growing parts of the state, giving families peace of mind that their kids will be able to go to a great local school, close to home.

    The Victorian Budget 2018/19 includes $353.2 million to build 12 new schools as part of a massive funding boost from the Andrews Labor Government. This includes:

    Armstrong Creek West Primary School (opening 2020)
    Beveridge West Primary School (opening 2020)
    Botanic Ridge Primary School (opening 2020)
    Casey Fields (Five Ways) Primary School (opening 2020)
    Clyde North East Primary School (opening 2020)
    Craigieburn South Secondary School (opening 2020)
    Davis Creek Primary School (opening 2020)
    Footscray Learning Precinct – Seddon Secondary Campus (opening 2021)
    Keysborough South Primary School (opening 2020)
    Lucas Primary School (opening 2020)
    Point Cook South Senior Secondary School (opening 2020)
    Wyndham South (Riverwalk) Primary School (opening 2020)
    Planning and early works will start on another 9 new schools, including Armstrong Creek Secondary School, a second McKinnon Secondary College campus, Fishermans Bend Secondary School, Fitzroy Gasworks senior campus, Leneva (Frederic Street Road) P-6, Miners Rest Primary School, North Melbourne Hill and Endeavour Hills Special School. A further $18.8 million will go to building the first stage of Docklands Primary School.

    The Budget includes $46.1 million for additional stages of 7 new schools opening in 2019, including Aitken Primary School, Burnside Primary School, Pakenham North East Primary School, Preston High School, Sanctuary Lakes P 9, Truganina East P 9 and Yarrambat Park Primary School. These works include gyms and extra classrooms.

    The Labor Government is building the Education State to give every Victorian student a great education, and every community a great local school. In contrast, in 2016 not one new school opened because the Liberals failed to plan for our growing state. We won’t let that happen again.

    Over the last three years, our investments total more than $2.8 billion, funding more than 1,200 school upgrades and building 70 new schools, as well as creating more than 5,000 jobs.

  9. ..our own local primary was substantially upgraded but, due to the heritage value of the building, you don’t see it from the outside. It was basically gutted and refitted.

  10. nath

    No, I said that the feds supplied the money for the science building/school hall, and the Victorian government provided the money for the rest. Do learn to read.

  11. ‘a r says:
    Monday, June 17, 2019 at 5:15 pm

    if Iran keeps hitting tankers

    Unsubstantiated right-wing propaganda!’

    Good pick up.

  12. meher baba @ 3.49

    Your point about the lack of affinity of Labor leaders with ‘surburbanites’ is a good one and certainly Anthony Albanese has not moved within a radius of a couple of kilometres in his life from his inner city domain.

    However whilst it appears de riguer for the maiden speech of most freshly minted Labor politicians to have a (Pythonesque ?) component of how tough their upbringing was, in the Albanese case there is considerable truth to the claim. The back streets of Newtown in the 60’s, 70’s and 80’s are a world away from what the suburb became in later years and I have no doubt that it strongly influenced the views and the person he became – remembering that his mentor (Tom Uren) was himself no stranger to tough times.

  13. Boerwar

    I don’t trust John Bolton or Pompeo at all.
    Of course, and Trump who has been telling all and sundry since before he became dear leader, not to trust the intelligence community.
    So now the doubts about the info they are trying to spin, is also not being swallowed.
    Karma is a bitch.

  14. Rex

    Yep, needing 12 new schools means there are an awful lot of demountables being used whilst waiting for those schools to be built. When people move into new areas, they need educational facilities provided nearby; so schools start up with demountables whilst waiting for building to get underway.

  15. I feel you just keep engaging me to find an area to disagree with. As I have seen you do on here many times with others. Just badgering away until you find something. have fun, but I’m off to walk the dog before it gets too dark.

  16. So, if we put in $600 million worth of lies, an MSM dominated by one of the richest foreigners on the planet, vested interest groups, 750,000 abused foreign workers who do not get a vote, a wealthy well-educated inner suburban dilettante vote, a significant proportion of the Underclass who either will not or cannot vote, and you are starting to see some structural reasons why government by the rich for the rich mostly obtains in the tattered remains of Australian democracy.

  17. ‘Victoria says:
    Monday, June 17, 2019 at 5:18 pm

    Boerwar

    Of course, and Trump who has been telling all and sundry since before he became dear leader, not to trust the intelligence community.’

    Excellent point.

  18. ‘Preference whisperer’ Druery has a book coming out soon:

    https://www.theage.com.au/national/preference-whisperer-glenn-druery-opens-up-about-getting-minor-parties-elected-20190617-p51yjc.html

    Druery, who has been a staffer to Hinch and who freelances as a hired gun for minor political parties during election campaigns, is putting the finishing touches to his book.

    The Preference Whisperer will be out in October, we are told.

    Much of it is a rumination on what Australian politics would look like without Druery pulling the strings to get various minor parties elected to the crossbench.

    And having worked across the politics spectrum from former Liberal Democrats senator David Leyonhjelm to the Sex Party’s Fiona Patten, we’re sure it’ll contain plenty of juicy detail.

  19. Alison Pennington is an Australian economist who wrote this article about the future of the Australian union movement. She argues that today’s unions need to be focused on the critical issue of under-employment, which is the main vulnerability that employers exploit these days, and that unions probably need to broaden their role by linking up with other social movements that promote economic and social justice.

    https://www.jacobinmag.com/2019/06/australia-labor-party-election-unions-economy

  22. Boerwar

    tattered remains of Australian democracy

    You’ve reminded me of the time when squatters ruled the land. No democracy then. 🙂

  23. ‘Bucephalus says:
    Monday, June 17, 2019 at 5:24 pm

    There is nothing wrong with demountables. ‘

    Indeed. The wealthiest private schools in the nation are littered with demountables.

  24. That sounds highly unlikely. I don’t know of any school which didn’t score either a science building or a school hall

    Well, my sister worked at a disadvantaged school that had demountables and was generally pretty run-down, requiring lots of maintenance. During the BER the school got an outside basketball court instead of much desired air conditioning. There was a lot of unhappy staff, students and parents.

  26. zoomster says:
    Monday, June 17, 2019 at 5:11 pm

    Depended on the school. Some got a COLA, some a canteen, some a library. Others got car parks and covered walk ways. There was variation from state to state on what was allowed.

  27. Bucephalus

    Yes, that’s true. I can only talk about the ones I’ve seen, or were on my Indi list.

    I had a lovely couple of days (as a candidate at the time) wandering around the electorate to attend school building openings.

  28. Boerwar says:
    Monday, June 17, 2019 at 5:14 pm

    What do you make of the video clearly showing a mine being removed from a tanker?

    I put little faith in this flying object claim. Eye witnesses are often completely wrong. Anti-ship missiles make much bigger bangs than what has happened to those carriers.

    I also discounted the claims of a torpedo hit because the damage is far to light – this is what a modern torpedo does – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vYAWrkvyYdc

  29. Bucephalus says:
    Monday, June 17, 2019 at 4:07 pm

    All the largest cities have Democratic Governments. All the largest population states have Democratic Governments.

    This is just not the case.

    But even to the extent that it is, Democratic Governments are considerably less anti-social than Republican Governments.

    The US is an example of a highly dysfunctional system. It generates extraordinary hardship for many millions, incredible tax-privileged luxury for a few. The political system – the legislatures, judiciaries and executive branches – is routinely gamed by the stunningly wealthy. Very few initiatives with an egalitarian purpose are allowed to survive in the US. They are extinguished wherever they gain a hold.

    There is considerably less inter-generational social mobility in the US than in comparator countries. It really is a State in which wealth, power, social status and opportunity are inherited. The US is no longer a meritocracy. It is a quasi aristocracy.

  30. a r

    Who else apart from Iran would be hitting the tankers and why?

    Who do you think were on the boat on the video?

  32. Here’s the latest goss about who may replace Arthur Seenodonors in the Senate for NSW (the Hughes-Turnbull clan are interested):

    CBD Sydney: the race is on to snare Arthur Sinodinos’s Senate spot
    By Kylar Loussikian and Samantha Hutchinson
    May 28, 2019 — 12.12am

    So long is the wait until Arthur Sinodinos boards the flight to Washington DC that the plane in which he will travel probably hasn’t been built yet.

    But this small detail has not prevented Liberal hopefuls from beginning the push to replace the long-time party operator when he departs the Senate later this year.

    Jim Molan, who missed out on a return to the Senate after the Coalition placed him fourth on the Coalition ticket, is the first name mentioned by insiders.

    It is usually followed by the phrase “over my dead body”.

    Knowing he was unlikely to win re-election, Molan’s backers ran an unauthorised below-the-line campaign that offended the party’s sensibilities and made him very unpopular among some.

    But if defence and foreign policy expertise is needed, we hear former Lowy Institute fellow turned RSL NSW president James Brown has already expressed some interest in the gig.

    Brown happens to be married to Daisy Turnbull Brown, the much more sensible of Malcolm Turnbull’s children who quietly campaigned and held fundraisers for party golden boy Dave Sharma.

    Meanwhile, it also turns out that NSW Liberal treasurer Michael Hughes — brother of Lucy Turnbull and son of barrister Tom Hughes — may be interested in the spot.

    He’s been a formidable fundraiser and, while notionally aligned with the party’s conservatives, is known to be close to moderates including factional heavyweight Michael Photios.

    Other candidates already being canvassed include NSW Liberal vice-president Kent Johns, who had successfully been prevailed upon (by Turnbull in 2016 and Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s apparatchiks more recently) not to challenge Hughes MP Craig Kelly for pre-selection.

    The former Labor president turned Liberal Democrat turned Liberal candidate in Gilmore, Warren Mundine, would also be “taken seriously”, according to some factional powerbrokers.

    His election would be a real sliding doors moment considering it was seven years ago that Mundine quit Labor in a huff after Mark Arbib’s Senate seat was given to Bob Carr over him.

    Maybe he could give the Australian Conservatives a try if it doesn’t work out this time.

    Also considering a tilt: former deputy state director Richard Shields, now the chief lobbyist at the Insurance Council of Australia.

    But replacing Sinodinos comes with a couple of catches.

    First, there will only be two years left in the job by the time Sinodinos is out.

    Second, they face demotion to a (likely unwinnable) spot on the Coalition ticket come the next election thanks to an agreement to elevate a Nationals candidate up the list.

  33. A mystery virus is causing one of the country’s most unique animals to go blind.

    Lumholtz’s tree kangaroos are only found in a small pocket of rainforest in far north Queensland — and most Australians do not even know they exist.

    Now, the creatures — which normally nestle high up in the treetops — are being found in odd places on the Atherton Tablelands, west of Cairns, including in schools, sheds and in the middle of roads, unable to see and confused.
    …
    The marsupials exclusively eat the leaves of the rainforest trees they inhabit.

    “The leaves are fairly toxic but because we have had drier-than-normal weather over the past seven years, the leaves are probably more toxic than normal,” Dr Coombes said.

    “Because the trees are getting less water, those toxins might be concentrated more.”

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-06-17/lumholtzs-tree-kangaroo-blindness-mystifies-malanda-scientist/11195758

  34. ‘Bucephalus says:
    Monday, June 17, 2019 at 5:41 pm

    a r

    Who else apart from Iran would be hitting the tankers and why?

    Who do you think were on the boat on the video?’

    You may mean those wicked Iranians who were removing a limpet mine from a crippled tanker in their national waters?

    The Iranians reckon the attacks were false flag operation. There are numerous players with an interest in such a false flag operation: the US, Israel, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, about half the Yemenis, Turkey… etc, etc, etc.

    The only certain thing for distant observers is that there is no certain thing.

  35. adrian,

    Perhaps you can educate us with your theories on who is blowing holes in tankers and why. No? Tin Foil hat too tight to type?

  36. There was, of course, one Labor leader who built his political identity very much around being from the outer suburbs – Mark Latham. That didn’t seem to help Labor very much in connecting with people from outer suburbs (outer suburbs were amongst their worst-performing areas, swing-wise, in the 2004 election).

  37. Boerwar,

    You really believe that a False Flag attack is able to be arranged in the Straits of Hormuz?

    Go on – say it – you think the Trumpster is doing this, don’t you.

  38. The Iranian patrol boat class initially reported by the US has now been changed to another (much smaller) class of patrol boat. And that is not counting the following:
    Trump, ‘You saw the boat.’
    Actually, nobody seems to have seen ‘the’ boat; nor the source of the missiles.

  40. ‘Bucephalus says:
    Monday, June 17, 2019 at 6:02 pm

    Boerwar,

    You really believe that a False Flag attack is able to be arranged in the Straits of Hormuz?

    Go on – say it – you think the Trumpster is doing this, don’t you.’

    1. It might have been the Israelis using Australian passports. They are sophisticated enough to deliver on this.
    2. It might have been the US itself. It would not be the first time the US has fired on itself or on friendlies and blamed the bad guys. Not by a very, very long shot.
    3. It might have been out-of-control or state proxy elements on the far shore.
    4. It might have been renegade Iranians acting in cahoots with the US.
    5. It might have been Saudis.
    6. It might have been Iranian state operatives.

    There are plenty of options. This is, after all, the Middle East.

    The techniques used are extremely basic -despite US claims that they were ‘sophisticated’.

    I have no reason to think that Trump knows what he is doing or that he is setting up US false flag ops in the Gulf. I do have large doubts that he is fully in control of US black ops.

    Apart from that I will repeat what I have said many times before: I don’t know what happened or who was accountable.

  42. Who else apart from Iran would be hitting the tankers

    The same people who scared up some satellite photos of irrigation pipe lying around in Iraq and used them to convince the rest of the world that they were proof of a WMD program. To justify create an excuse for going to war with Iraq (the second time).

    and why?

    Basically the same reason. Except now Iraq is spelled Iran. And instead of plumbing parts we have grainy video of people supposedly taking mines off of a vessel they supposedly want to attack. And people who were actually there disputing the US narrative.

    Trump has been looking for any excuse to start something with Iran since before he was president. And his National Security chief is even more hawkish.

    Completely unsurprising that after years of desperately hoping for any excuse to attack Iran they now have one claim to have one.

  43. I see that Bucephalus has retreated to rhetorical overreach, presumably learned on the metaphorical lap of Daddy Trump.

  45. The great legacy of Trump’s post-truth White House and administration is that for the first time in my life I have absolutely no faith in the truth or reliability of anything that comes out of the US administration now. Nixon and Johnson had more reliability and integrity than the current lot.

    It could be anyone, including the Iranians, the Israelis, the Japanese or the Solomon Islanders. But nothing provided by the USA has any more starting credibility now than something posted by Putin.

  46. A R

    So, the Iraqi Kurds were never gassed and the Halabja massacre never happened?

    And the UN Weapons inspectors were given full and unfettered access where ever they wanted to go?

  48. TPOF – because the Obama administration never spun things for their own purposes? Never claimed that the murder of their Ambassador and his security team in Bhenghazi was caused by a youtube video? Never said Chemical Weapons use in Syria was a Red Line that couldn’t be crossed – but it was and they did nothing.

  50. “Depended on the school. Some got a COLA, some a canteen, some a library. Others got car parks and covered walk ways. There was variation from state to state on what was allowed.”

    Having been a primary school dad at the time of the “School Halls” program i can say it was received by the dads who are tradies with great relief. Quite a few of them were scared and worried and said to me that program kept them AND their suppliers solvent and able to pay their mortgages and wages. Which is what it was designed to do.

    Schools pretty much got what they asked for in terms of buildings and it was structured so that work could get underway fast…to get the $ into the economy as quickly as poss with minimal state / planning delays and state level skimming. Huge, well designed and well delivered.

    Was a major part of the success of the ALP response to the GFC to support jobs and something the economic illiterates in the Coalition would NEVER have done.

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