A summary of what remains to be resolved of election counting:
• The button is yet to be pressed on five of the eight Senate counts, with Tasmania, the Australian Capital Territory and Northern Territory completed and fully published. More on the Tasmanian result below.
• The Coalition-versus-Labor two-party preferred preference count for Farrer is 54% complete, with the remainder presumably to be knocked over today. Only then will we have a definitive total for the national two-party preferred, but the remaining uncertainty is relevant only to the second decimal place: to the first, the Coalition will finish with 51.5%, a swing of either 1.1% or 1.2%.
• Preference distributions for lower house seats are yet to be published, though in some cases they have assuredly been conducted. As noted previously, only with the distribution could the theoretical (though not practical) possibility of One Nation winning Hunter from Labor be ruled out.
I will be taking a deep dive into each Senate result as they are reported. As discussed here, none of the results are seriously in doubt, with the highly arguable exception of Queensland.
The chart below shows how the late stages of the preference distribution for Tasmania proceeded, after the election of the first three candidates and the elimination of lower order candidates and parties (the latter included independent Craig Garland, who managed a disappointing 3475 votes, compared with the 6633 he polled at last year’s Braddon by-election). The first three were the top two on the Liberal ticket, Richard Colbeck and Claire Chandler, and the first on Labor’s, Carol Brown. Both Liberal and Labor polled clear of two quotas (the primary vote totals can be found here), but owing to Tasmania’s high rate of below-the-line voting (28% in this case), neither scored over two quotas on above-the-line votes alone. However, Chandler was promptly elected after Colbeck as most of his below-the-line votes proceeded straight down the Liberal ticket.
The situation for Labor was more complicated owing to Lisa Singh, who again had to campaign for below-the-line votes to retain her seat after the party placed her fourth on the ticket. This she was able to accomplish at the 2016 double dissolution, when she won Labor’s fifth seat from number six on the ticket. This time though she had the effectively impossible task of winning one of two Labor seats from number four. Singh scored 5.68% of the first preference vote, slightly down on her 6.12% in 2016. This meant she remained in the count longer than the candidate one place above her, who on both occasions was John Short, but she was well behind the second candidate on the Labor ticket, Catryna Bilyk, who received all the above-the-line votes remaining after the election of Brown.
As the chart demonstrates, the race for the last three seats was not close – Labor was always going to win a second seat; Liberal and Labor were both only slightly in excess of two quotas; and the respective vote shares of 12.57% for the Greens and 8.92% for the Jacqui Lambie Network guaranteed them both a seat. Nick McKim of the Greens edged over the line to take the fourth seat after the preferences of various minor parties were distributed. Bilyk and Lambie were both pushed over a quota at the point where Singh was excluded, very slightly behind One Nation candidate Matthew Stephen, although it would have made no difference if Stephen had gone out first. The result was thus clear-cut enough that all elected candidates achieved quotas in their own right, which is not guaranteed under the new Senate electoral system under which some votes can exhaust.
The table below records “four-party preferred” preference splits for those parties that failed to win seats (including Craig Garland as “Group O”).
briefly says:
Monday, June 17, 2019 at 3:35 pm
This is not a paradox. Working people depend entirely on their access to work for their material, social and individual well-being; for their enfranchisement. If you take away their work, you take away nearly everything. It is not a mark of ‘obsession’ to be conscious of this. It is a mark of practical awareness. We have had many years now of sluggishness in the labour market and de-funding of social spending. This directly affects working people, as they are acutely aware.
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Yes and that also applies to a knowledge worker which is why I argue the term working class in the traditional sense is possibly too narrow for today’s labour market.
There seems to be more willingness to support welfare spending among knowledge workers than there seems to be among traditional working class. There also seems to be a general generational change between how the boomers and retired see the world against how the under 30’s see the world even among those that work in traditional blue collar lines of work.
When it comes to the ALP, it can benefit from the growing aspiration of the worker but to do so it needs to understand that a worker is more than someone in a blue collar and that workers go to work not out of love for the employer but for their own objectives.
Catmomma @2.23pm
“If we want unions to survive, we need more smart and strategic union leaders like Sally McManus, Michelle O’Neill, Ged Kearney, Nadine Flood and Daniel Walton. They are more successful at bringing this government and their employer cronies to heel than any militant union leader.”
Given the continued collapse in union memberships and the recent failure of the “something something rules something” election campaign I am unclear as to how they can claim much success for anything.
Mexicanbeemer: “Then along comes the ALP wanting to win over something called the “working class” but they find the working class are and have always been traditionally conservative as in attitudes towards change.”
This is a longstanding problem for socialist politicians the world over. But it’s not so much that the working class is “conservative”, but that people towards the bottom of the heap who are working hard to try to better themselves within the current system are not easily convinced that making major changes to that system is going to help their current situation more than it hurts it.
Being in a position to entertain the belief that the current system is terrible and should be torn down and remodelled is very much a middle class luxury. It is particularly the domain of university students and those who have recently graduated, but who have yet to embark upon careers or having children. These people have lots of free time and feel a sense of ennui about the world as it is.
Working people, on the other hand, are too busy trying to build better lives for themselves and their children to have time to think about systemic change. And they have an instinctive understanding that, when systems change, those who have wealth already will generally be better placed to take advantage of the new environment than will those who are struggling to make ends meet. Just as they instinctively understood that, when a political party increasingly dominated by the concerns of the wealthy, educated inner city classes talks about taking money off those at the “big end of town”, this probably wasn’t going to help working people very much.
As I have posted before, there is a growing cultural gap between those in charge of the Labor Party and the suburban voters who decide elections. No current leading Labor figure at the Federal or State level, with the partial exception of Annastacia Palaszczuk, seems to have much in the way of a natural affinity with those voters. ScoMo, on the other hand, seems never more comfortable than when he is hanging out with the suburbanites: he completely gets what they are on about.
IMO this is a big problem for Labor. They truly do need to forget about the inner cities – leave them to the Greens – and start focusing on the suburbs. Of course, Albo is quintessentially an inner city guy (as far as I know he’s never lived anywhere else), but he does seem to get it rather more than Shorten.
Bucephalus @ #199 Monday, June 17th, 2019 – 3:44 pm
Assuming everyone has a bank account and that all bank accounts are computerized, then it costs…however much it takes to pay a programmer to write a script that increments everyone’s balance by $25,000 and configure it as an annual cronjob. Times the number of different banks, I guess.
Because, you know, fiat currency.
Switch back to the gold standard (or perhaps bitcoin, or other finite-resource cryptocurrency), and then it might actually be interesting. 🙂
Nicholas says:
Monday, June 17, 2019 at 3:00 pm
I don’t understand why you focus on just ” needs-based funding for non-selective public schools”.
The Government selective schools are the one area where I would have thought that the SJW Lefties would agree there should be means testing.
Selective schools are supposed to be helping the very bright but less fortunate to achieve academic excellence. Unfortunately that is rarely the case as many of the students come from average to well-off families.
I’m a Conservative and believe that the parents who could afford to send their kids to a private school but choose not to shouldn’t be allowed a free ride in a selective school for their kids.
It’s exactly the same principle as the Medicare levy.
meher baba
There seems to be a lot of different things happening because in some places the ALP did lose suburbia but in seats like Dunkley in suburban Melbourne, the ALP won the seat for the first time since losing it at the 1996 election with many booths returning their best ALP results since the 1980s or the early 1990s.
briefly says:
Monday, June 17, 2019 at 3:35 pm
The US had 8 years of Obama and 8 years of Clinton. All the largest cities have Democratic Governments. All the largest population states have Democratic Governments. BUT! Apparently it is all the fault of the horrible right wingers that those places are full of homeless and cities going broke due to amazing pension funds and they shoot more people each weekend in Chicago than in Afghanistan.
lizzie says:
Monday, June 17, 2019 at 3:43 pm
Of course it is -do you know how much salary you lose by being demoted?
Yes, they probably try to make you Chair of a committee or something but that isn’t going to keep the partner in the manner they are accustomed to.
Bucephalus @ #201 Monday, June 17th, 2019 – 3:49 pm
Daniel Walton got Michaelia Cash to hide behind a whiteboard, move her senior adviser sideways and out of parliament and subject herself to a court case that proved beyond a shadow of a doubt what a vicious mendacious shonk she is. And, yes, yes, Morrison obviously doesn’t give two hoots but Australia looked up from their phones for long enough to notice.
Sally McManus actually, despite your attempt to denigrate and dismiss the Change the Rules campaign, got Australia to notice that their wages are stagnating, that they are being exploited by Labour Hire companies and that the gig economy is just a trendy name for absolutely precarious employment that abolishes all the traditional conditions hard fought for by workers with a tap on an app.
They may not be the definition of success to your liking but then I doubt anything unions do these days ever would be. You being one of the lucky ones that doesn’t need them. But try spinning your opinion to a Streets Ice Cream worker or a Chemist Warehouse worker, to name just a few who have benefited from union campaigns recently in the teeth of stiff employer opposition.
Mexicanbeemer
says:
Monday, June 17, 2019 at 2:29 pm
Nath
On the earlier thread you raised the idea of linking state school funding to local demographics. I think that idea is flawed because in many cases you will find public housing is in wealthier suburbs or many suburbs are demographically mixed with pockets of wealth next to pockets of lower to middle income, sometimes in the same street. In Melbourne there are a number of example of this with one of the more extreme examples being the South Yarra public housing commission flats are literally only a few tram stops from some of Toorak’s richest streets, with a state school (Toorak West PS) between them, the old money types probably wouldn’t send their kids to that local primary school but if you link that school’s funding to the local demographics then you are treating that school as though those old money rich kids are being sent there, so under your idea that state primary school would receive less funding which would potentially disadvantage the kids from the South Yarra public housing commission towers.
_____________________________________
I take your point. Another way to do it would be to just use the information collected by the schools on parents income. In fact I’m sure that’s what they actually use to determine socio-economic status of schools now, despite it seemingly having no impact on getting greater funding.
Just on the South Yarra housing commission area you mention. It actually straddles South Yarra and Prahran. The South Yarra (northern section) is in the Toorak Primary School zone and the southern section is in the Windsor primary school zone. While both are in the Prahran High School zone. Prahran High is a new 25 million dollar high school with excellent facilities.
Many people who send their children to private high school also send their children to local public primary schools: Toorak Primary School has excelled in Naplan results while Windsor Primary school is underperforming. So, the residents of the South Yarra/Prahran housing commission have an excellent high school, and access to a high performing primary and an underperforming primary depending upon which side of Malvern road they live on.
Crank
You don’t get sarcasm, do you! You’re a very concrete sort of chap.
A lot less than you lose if you resign. 🙂
Mexicanbeemer says:
Monday, June 17, 2019 at 2:52 pm
C@tmomma & Lizzie
Thanks, as I wrote the comment I was starting to think that maybe it was looking a bit long winded.
I thought it was a very thoughtful detailing of the problem. I definitely come from the knowledge working corner. As I was not a member of an affiliated union, to Join the labor party I had to sign a document that I would support unions. I am a member of EA, they may see themselves as a professional association, but in reality they are a union, and they could do more for engineers if they had a higher membership.
I think the problem is professional organizations. The most powerful union in Australia is the AMA,to be a doctor you have to be a member. But they don’t see themselves a a union
Teachers are knowledge workers and they have a reasonable level of unionization, so it is not impossible.
Unions supply funding; and for a political party funding matters.
Hawke sticking it to the pilot association was probable not a good move as that type of organization is the future of unionism.
I don’t think it is the Labor party that has to change, it is the union movement that need to move on. There is room for CFMMEU but it is not where the union movement needs to go.
Schools – at least in Victoria – used to be funded according to parental income. Now (I think) it’s shifted to ‘need’. I’m not sure how that’s determined (I think NAPLAN plays a part).
I knew a school principal who, when a parent wrote “Plumber” as their occupation, would ask, “Are you working at the moment?” and then would ask them to write “Unemployed” instead, to ensure the school would get more funding.
Labor partisans would be heartened with Albanese performance with Karvelas just now ..?
Rex, haven’t you got anything better to do than listen to ABC radio?
Bucephalus
The Straits of Hormuz carries around a third of traded oil.
zoomster
says:
Monday, June 17, 2019 at 4:24 pm
Schools – at least in Victoria – used to be funded according to parental income. Now (I think) it’s shifted to ‘need’. I’m not sure how that’s determined (I think NAPLAN plays a part).
I knew a school principal who, when a parent wrote “Plumber” as their occupation, would ask, “Are you working at the moment?” and then would ask them to write “Unemployed” instead, to ensure the school would get more funding.
___________________________________
Clearly there are schools in areas of significant disadvantage that don’t need complex information to determine that most children at the school are doing to tough. Of course there are funding instruments which shift a bit of money around according to need/income.
My idea is to shift massive funds to disadvantaged schools, I’m talking total rebuilds, huge reductions in class sizes, the kids to get free trips to Paris for cultural awareness. Well maybe not the last part, but you get what I mean.
Sorry Lizzie – missed that.
That said – at least leaving the Upper House (I assume in Victoria) doesn’t create a byelection and they just replace them with another union stooge depending on which Faction the seat belongs to.
What did he do wrong apart from being in the ALP?
We need to encourage wealthy parents to send their kids to their local public schools. That should be seen as an intelligent and civic-minded decision. One of the most retrograde ideas is the claim that wealthy parents who DON’T use high fee private schools aren’t pulling their weight. We need to counter that weird idea very vigorously.
I think we should convert all selective schools into non-selective schools. The educational research does not support the continued existence of selective schools. It’s just another form of privilege and exclusion that hurts other schools who have to cope with greater educational challenges with far less resources.
‘Bucephalus says:
Monday, June 17, 2019 at 3:36 pm
Boerwar
You stated ” the Australian weakened economy by way of our dependence on ME oil” – we are not dependent on ME oil. It is only 17% of our imports.
Dependence (as we are on Asian Oil) is completely different to price impacts of the international oil price which is impacted by events in the ME.
We have been through much higher oil prices in the past and survived.’
Closing the Strait would cut off gas supplies from the world’s largest single supplier as well.
‘survival’ is a very low benchmark.
Bucephalus
🙂 I have not forgotten that you do have a kind heart underneath.
Funny old world
Nicholas
says:
Monday, June 17, 2019 at 4:31 pm
We need to encourage wealthy parents to send their kids to their local public schools. That should be seen as an intelligent and civic-minded decision. One of the most retrograde ideas is the claim that wealthy parents who DON’T use high fee private schools aren’t pulling their weight. We need to counter that weird idea very vigorously.
____________________________________
that’s true Nicholas, but there are excellent public schools in wealthy areas which through parental donations have elevated them to being basically private schools in terms of facilities and materials. Think Balwyn High School in Melbourne or any other of the 5 of 6 public high schools in very wealthy areas here. Compare their facilities with poorer areas in the city and in rural areas and the comparison is just immense.
a r
Unless you are going to a nice Government Relations position or such like at Australia Post then you are probably making more than the Premier.
Boerwar says:
Monday, June 17, 2019 at 4:28 pm
Who knew?
nath
I thought that was the basis of Gonski.
My brief inquiry into this matter turns up 561 recorded homicides in Chicago in 2018, and “a report issued by UNICEF (which) revealed that during the first nine months of 2018, five thousand children were killed or injured in Afghanistan”.
Boerwar,
I am pretty confident about two things:
Trump isn’t going to go to war against Iran (that doesn’t rule out lobbing s few cruise missiles into Iran if Iran keeps hitting tankers).
The US and a lot of other nations will do what it takes to keep the tankers safe through the Straits of Hormuz.
I’m not saying that the price of oil won’t go up but there are plenty of other suppliers (Russia, Venezuela etc) who would love to ramp up production on higher prices.
As a woman, give me Chicago over Afghanistan any day. Though I think just about any city in Australia is better.
lizzie,
You are very kind. Thank you.
Regards
B
Interesting comment under the article in the Fairfax media about Setka:
C@tmomma @ #229 Monday, June 17th, 2019 – 4:47 pm
I need time to consider Adelaide vs Afghanistan…
Dear William,
Noted. A little literary licence is unusual for me. Thank you for the data.
Regards
B
https://www.chicagotribune.com/data/ct-shooting-victims-map-charts-htmlstory.html
Rex Douglas @ #233 Monday, June 17th, 2019 – 4:50 pm
Now you’ve done it! BK and SK will not be impressed! 😆
Uh oh, here we go:
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/more-home-owners-falling-behind-on-mortgage-as-debt-climbs-20190617-p51yhg.html
Did Labor dodge a bullet after all?
zoomster
says:
Monday, June 17, 2019 at 4:39 pm
nath
I thought that was the basis of Gonski.
______________________
pretty much, and that was good. But a lot of school in poorer city and rural areas need to be rebuilt. A national goal to get every child in schools out of demountables and with access to air conditioning in summer would be good.
Yep, the cost of a UBI is the real resources and the goods and services that everybody would be buying with their UBI. Funding it is the easy part.
Steven Hail assessed a UBI set at $20,700 per person per year for all citizens and permanent migrants aged 15 and over. $20,700 was the Maximum Base Rate of the pension at the time that he did this assessment (today it is a bit higher). There are 20.2 million citizens and permanent residents aged 15 and over.
He found that even if the UBI replaced all of the Australian Government’s existing welfare and social security spending, total spending by the Australian Government would have to increase by well over 50 percent. The Australian Government currently spends about $490 billion in a financial year, so he found that this particular version of the UBI would require the Australian Government to add well over $245 billion per year to its spending. That is an absolutely whopping increase in spending. In order to render all of that extra spending non-inflationary, the Australian Government would have to double the GST, add 10 to 15 percent to every marginal income tax rate, and abolish all existing tax deductions (including the very popular tax deductions for things like superannuation and negative gearing). The scale of tax increases that the government would need to enact would be eye-watering.
You can read his article here:
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/a-job-guarantee-a-better-cheaper-alternative-to-the-greens-ubi,11486
Hang onto your hats:
C@tmomma @ #235 Monday, June 17th, 2019 – 4:54 pm
Bill Shorten wanted the bullet more than anything he’s ever wanted.
Melbourne felt like Chicago for a while:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Melbourne_gangland_killings
‘ But a lot of school in poorer city and rural areas need to be rebuilt..’
Most of the schools I know of were rebuilt around the time of the GFC. They used a combination of Federal and Victorian funds to do so. There’s only one local school I know of (in the whole of Indi, not that I know of them all) which wasn’t totally rebuilt, and that was because it’s part of a multi campus complex. They used the money to rebuild the other campuses, relying on promises of future federal funding, and then Tony Abbott got elected.
Most of the schools I know of were rebuilt around the time of the GFC
That’s a lucky area. My local primary school just got a shade sail thingy, which is good for the kids in summer playing outside.
‘Bucephalus says:
Monday, June 17, 2019 at 4:46 pm
Boerwar,
I am pretty confident about two things:
‘Trump isn’t going to go to war against Iran (that doesn’t rule out lobbing s few cruise missiles into Iran if Iran keeps hitting tankers).’
This assumes that the Iranians will not escalate.
‘The US and a lot of other nations will do what it takes to keep the tankers safe through the Straits of Hormuz.’
This assumes that the Iranians will float some mines into the Straits on the right tides.
nath @ #244 Monday, June 17th, 2019 – 5:02 pm
They’re called COLAs up here. Covered Outdoor Learning Area. 🙂
Rex Douglas @ #241 Monday, June 17th, 2019 – 5:00 pm
That doesn’t sound very nice, Rex Douglas!
They’re called COLAs up here. Covered Outdoor Learning Area.
______________________
Yep that’s the one. And the rebuilding that Gillard undertook was fine, but most schools I’m aware of may have had a building tacked on, but there are still 6345 demountables used in Victorian schools as of 2016.
nath
That sounds highly unlikely. I don’t know of any school which didn’t score either a science building or a school hall. I’ve got lists of funding for schools in Indi – none of them missed out, and that was in the time Mirabella was the MP.
‘…there are still 6345 demountables used in Victorian schools as of 2016.’
Yes, because the population has grown since then, and new areas opened up and are waiting for schools to be built. Schools use demountables whilst waiting for other buildings to be upgraded.
And, of course, the Gillard funds could not go, under the Constitution, to building actual classrooms, although there was a bit of fancy footwork which saw ‘science buildings’ having a few more rooms than they actually needed….
Not yet commented upon in the MSM, or anywhere else, is that all the damage was done to the starboard side of the two tankers.
The tankers were outbound.
Outbound, the starboard side would be AWAY from the Iranian side.
The crew of one of the tankers reported ‘flying objects’.
Despite a huge array of sensors and surveillance and ships and subs and aircraft and satellites and Reapers and all the rest of it, the US has so far been able to (publicly) identify the source of the flying objects. In fact, despite the Japanese crew reporting seeing the flying objects, the US side has so far failed to confirm their existence.
Flight time from the far shore (aka not the Iranian shore) to the starboard side of the tankers for most flying objects (aka missiles) of the lethal but visible sort: five to fifteen minutes.
I note that two nations have publicly announced that they are not satisfied with the data so far provided by the US side. One of these nations had personnel on board one of the ships.
The other is Germany. If the Germans are not very, very careful they will shortly be getting the full Cheese-Eating Surrender Monkey treatment from the NeoCons in the Trump Administration.
Footnote: A ‘torpedo’ has now made an entrance (and an exit) as part of the details being offered by usually nameless spokespersons.