Tasmanian Senate entrails examined

As the finalised Senate results are unrolled one by one, a deep dive into the preference distribution from Tasmania.

A summary of what remains to be resolved of election counting:

• The button is yet to be pressed on five of the eight Senate counts, with Tasmania, the Australian Capital Territory and Northern Territory completed and fully published. More on the Tasmanian result below.

• The Coalition-versus-Labor two-party preferred preference count for Farrer is 54% complete, with the remainder presumably to be knocked over today. Only then will we have a definitive total for the national two-party preferred, but the remaining uncertainty is relevant only to the second decimal place: to the first, the Coalition will finish with 51.5%, a swing of either 1.1% or 1.2%.

• Preference distributions for lower house seats are yet to be published, though in some cases they have assuredly been conducted. As noted previously, only with the distribution could the theoretical (though not practical) possibility of One Nation winning Hunter from Labor be ruled out.

I will be taking a deep dive into each Senate result as they are reported. As discussed here, none of the results are seriously in doubt, with the highly arguable exception of Queensland.

The chart below shows how the late stages of the preference distribution for Tasmania proceeded, after the election of the first three candidates and the elimination of lower order candidates and parties (the latter included independent Craig Garland, who managed a disappointing 3475 votes, compared with the 6633 he polled at last year’s Braddon by-election). The first three were the top two on the Liberal ticket, Richard Colbeck and Claire Chandler, and the first on Labor’s, Carol Brown. Both Liberal and Labor polled clear of two quotas (the primary vote totals can be found here), but owing to Tasmania’s high rate of below-the-line voting (28% in this case), neither scored over two quotas on above-the-line votes alone. However, Chandler was promptly elected after Colbeck as most of his below-the-line votes proceeded straight down the Liberal ticket.

The situation for Labor was more complicated owing to Lisa Singh, who again had to campaign for below-the-line votes to retain her seat after the party placed her fourth on the ticket. This she was able to accomplish at the 2016 double dissolution, when she won Labor’s fifth seat from number six on the ticket. This time though she had the effectively impossible task of winning one of two Labor seats from number four. Singh scored 5.68% of the first preference vote, slightly down on her 6.12% in 2016. This meant she remained in the count longer than the candidate one place above her, who on both occasions was John Short, but she was well behind the second candidate on the Labor ticket, Catryna Bilyk, who received all the above-the-line votes remaining after the election of Brown.

As the chart demonstrates, the race for the last three seats was not close – Labor was always going to win a second seat; Liberal and Labor were both only slightly in excess of two quotas; and the respective vote shares of 12.57% for the Greens and 8.92% for the Jacqui Lambie Network guaranteed them both a seat. Nick McKim of the Greens edged over the line to take the fourth seat after the preferences of various minor parties were distributed. Bilyk and Lambie were both pushed over a quota at the point where Singh was excluded, very slightly behind One Nation candidate Matthew Stephen, although it would have made no difference if Stephen had gone out first. The result was thus clear-cut enough that all elected candidates achieved quotas in their own right, which is not guaranteed under the new Senate electoral system under which some votes can exhaust.

The table below records “four-party preferred” preference splits for those parties that failed to win seats (including Craig Garland as “Group O”).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

445 comments on “Tasmanian Senate entrails examined”

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  1. Zoomster

    In the late 1960s there were many small dairy holdings that were too small to invest in the capital to install refrigerated vats to allow milk to be stored on farm so that milk collections could reduce from twice daily to once a week

    The government (Labor?) introduced a loan scheme so that farmers could buy out their neighbours and become large enough to install refrigerated vats.

    According to the accountant (from Victoria) the dairy farmers around Wide Bay , Qld, were so put out about the industry restructure they regularly poured milk down the drain at the processing plant. The farmers were paid on butter fat content.

    Clearly change has been occurring in the Murray Darling Basin with the old blockies in the oldest irrigation colonies having too small a holding to embrace new technology viably.

    The Tasmanian Blue Gum plantations are amongst the notorious new agricultural industries in the MDB

    If the old rural socialists want government intervention should Australia impose a usage plan so safe guard our food stocks

  2. Briefly

    “Everyone blames Labor.”
    I don’t blame ‘Labor’ – I think Kevin Rudd had an opportunity and missed it.
    I blame Tony Abbott and Peta Credlin

  3. Astrobleme says:
    Monday, June 17, 2019 at 11:17 am
    Briefly

    “Everyone blames Labor.”
    I don’t blame ‘Labor’ – I think Kevin Rudd had an opportunity and missed it.
    I blame Tony Abbott and Peta Credlin

    Your account is very far from complete. In any case, they are all goners now. What is to be done? The problems in the economy and the environment have not receded. They are worse now than they were even 5 years ago.

    The political dynamics are self-defeating for the country and especially for working people. But we seem to be incapable of changing these dynamics. Consequently we should expect things to continue to get worse. This makes sense to me. Everything else is fantasy.

  4. I was most impressed with Bushfire’s observation that

    Labor’s problem (and to some extent, its aim) has been that it has alleviated the benighted state of the Working Class to the point that much of the Working Class has concluded that it can go it alone economically, i.e. it doesn’t need Labor anymore.

    The classic illustration in the election campaign was the Qld coal miner who complained to Shorten that Labor’s tax policies were going to hurt him because he earns over $250,000

    In this election Labor had policies with great appeal to the low paid female workforce in hospitality, teaching, nursing , aged care with policies on wage theft , free kindy and free dental care for pensioners.

    The reason why the CFMMEU has amalgamated is that many men who worked in construction, mining, forestry have joined the aspirational class

    Maybe Labor will have more cut through letting the CFMMEU go their own way.

    Remember Bob Hawke cast the airline pilots adrift in sept 1989 and Australian pilots had to work overseas

  5. Zoomster you had commented on the water being bought for almond orchards and you have lived near the Murray for a long ime, OK you are an Indi fixture

    And I am interested in your on the ground observations

  6. Hmm.

    While defending Trump, Fox & Friends criticized John Dean for tweeting too much: “Almost 1,000 tweets … Who has time for that?”

  7. The reason why the CFMMEU has amalgamated is that many men who worked in construction, mining, forestry have joined the aspirational class

    Maybe Labor will have more cut through letting the CFMMEU go their own way.

    They aren’t even voting for Labor.

  8. I think I probably have an advantage that many bludgers do not. I’ve actually met many hundreds of voters in the last few months. I’ve asked them good questions and listened attentively to their replies. I’ve observed them and seen their behaviour. To that extent, I’m voter-focused. They are very, very deeply alienated. They have given up on the parties and the system. They are hostile. One thing we know is that hostile people are difficult to communicate with. They do not want ‘engagement’. They want to express themselves; show their discouragement and resentments. They have just done that. Labor lost as a result.

    The sources of voter discouragement and resentment will not go away. They will get worse. Consequently, we should expect to see more political dysfunction and rejection. The times in which we live are fearful ones. Fear is alive and well. Nearly everything that is said in the political space by the Liberals and the Irregulars adds to fear. They are authors of anxiety. They have it right and they’re winning. They will go on winning because there are very good reasons for us to feel fear. Fears are grounded in the lived experiences and expectancies of the great majority of voters.

    That said, of course, when we act from fear we get everything wrong. We will continue to get everything wrong.

  9. After an election built on scare campaigns and lies, and increasingly disillusioned voters, neither side will be game to propose or implement controversial reform

    And guess which pic was chosen to illustrate the “election built on scare campaigns and lies” by SMH.

  10. Briefly

    ” Consequently we should expect things to continue to get worse. This makes sense to me. ”

    I agree and we better all prepare for that.
    I am at a loss as to what to do. I am not an ‘influencer’ as such – I really on scientific information and very few people really use that to make choices.

    My sister-in-law is on the Board of Synergy here in WA – have been trying to suggest to her that we need to move away from coal. She’s in agreement largely, but as soon as I bring science into it she gets very suspicious/skeptical.

    I tried to describe time-dilation to her in conversation (she was complaining she didn’t have enough time) – she would not believe that it was a thing. Decided I was making it up. How do you convince someone of climate change when they won’t even believe Relativity.

  11. A petrol station on Marion Rd (SA?) has protective bird netting forming a tent over the forecourt canopy. About a hundred pigeons are roosting on the netting. I think the birds have won this round.

  12. Astrobleme

    Well, I don’t really understand relativity, but I certainly understand the science behind climate change.

  13. lizzie
    From article…

    It comes from the electorate’s ever-growing disillusionment and alienation from politics and politicians, and from the two main parties in particular.

    Very much in agreement with the observation from briefly re recent contact with the ‘ voters’.

    They are very, very deeply alienated. They have given up on the parties and the system. They are hostile.

  14. doyley @ #99 Monday, June 17th, 2019 – 11:08 am

    Albanese himself made the expulsion of Setka all about the Batty allegations.

    Well that was certainly stupid of him then.

    Albanese clearly stated more than once that his demand for Setka to be booted had nothing to do with the upcoming court case but was was triggered the Batty issue.

    Incrementally moreso for each time he did that.

    It will be interesting to see over coming days as judgement day approaches whether Albanese and others try to wriggle around and make the expulsion of Setka about a more broad suite of “ behavioural issues “

    That’s the only plausible outcome. It’s insane to go after someone on something that’s easily defended with either “it never happened” or “I’m entitled to my opinion and to express it freely” when you have an admission of harassment just sitting there.

  15. Astro….political dysfunction is also as real as relativity. It’s a thing, believe it or not.

    Political dysfunction on the Left-of-centre will continue to generate self-defeat.

    We’re fucked. Get used to it.

  16. Campaign platform CDP has brought together a record number of investors, including banking giants HSBC and Investec, to demand companies reveal data on the environmental cost of how they do business.

    The group said it was targeting 708 companies because of their “high environmental impact and lack of transparency” to date. The list includes the world’s largest fossil fuel companies such as BP and ExxonMobil as well as palm oil giant Genting Plantations and UK high street brands including Tesco, Ocado, WH Smith, Marks & Spencer and JD Wetherspoon.

    The CDP said 547 companies were being targeted to disclose information on the climate crisis, 166 on water security and 97 on deforestation. More than 7,000 companies already disclose their environmental impact through the CDP platform.

    The US is home to the highest number of companies named in the campaign, accounting for a fifth of the list, followed by Australia at 16%. UK companies make up 3.5% of the companies named and include constituents of the FTSE 100.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/jun/16/major-global-firms-accused-of-concealing-their-environmental-impact

  17. Zoomster after re-reading your posts I see you said that water policy is complex and does your head in as the regulations change from season to season. And you have no opinion on NSW water allocations

  18. a r,
    I think doyley is grossly simplifying the reason that Anthony Albanese called for the expulsion of John Setka from the Labor Party. But if you want to take his word for it, go right ahead.

  19. But if you want to take his word for it, go right ahead.

    That’s all I can do. It’s not like the post provided any references to back it up. 🙂

    It’s either true and stupid, or nonsense. Can’t say I’m interested enough in the Batty allegations to find out which. The whole thing seems like a bizarre sideshow, to be honest.

  20. @flickafaida
    Jun 15

    Forestry Corporation NSW is clearfelling, burning and poisoning vast areas along Bellingen’s lower Kalang River and its surrounding coastal wetlands to supply woodchips to China and Japan. @GladysB how do you sleep at night?

  21. I’m sure that someone, somewhere, has put a value on the environment. Does anyone have a link, or some knowledge? OK, I know that much land is no longer in ‘original’ condition.

  22. I’m not sure a criminal conviction is enough to boot someone from a political party. I expect not. There is probably a bringing the party into disrepute clause they might get him on.
    What a mess. Albo was very naive to think he could toss Setka so easily. People like Setka are very rare and very tough and will do anything.

  23. Diog

    The article I linked to earlier had a list of people who various leaders (well, mainly Rudd) have tried to expel from the party. The success rate doesn’t seem to have been very high.

  24. Bushfire Bill: “In the orgy of back-patting, swooning, national self-congratulation, celebration of alcohol, adultery and vanity that has resulted from Bob Hawke’s death, many Labor supporters have lost sight of the fact that the transformation of the Working Class into the Greedy Class was enabled, promoted and facilitated by Hawke himself, aided and abetted by that other Working Class Hero, Paul Keating.
    Both of them couldn’t have followed their own dictum quicker: they turned themselves into North Shore millionaires, self-employed “consultants” brokering their time in office into very pleasant little earners, thank you very much.
    And that’s why so many Liberals were at Bob Hawke’s memorial service: they loved the job he did for them that they couldn’t do themselves – at least while keeping a straight face.
    They were there to say thanks.”

    Sigh. A scathing assessment of the class treachery of the modern ALP authored by a guy who – if his accounts of himself on PB are to be believed – used to run his own business sufficiently profitably to be able to live in leafy Beecroft.

    Labor’s current problems derive largely from the fact that the main part of the electorate to which they listen is white, educated, economically privileged and atheistic. They don’t listen to the tradies and other aspirationals, they don’t listen to the rapidly-growing communities of migrants from East and South Asia, and they don’t listen to the Christians. They say they care about Muslims, but only to the extent that they are social and economic “victims”: they aren’t the least interested in the religious beliefs of Muslims.

    The platform with which they went into the last election was a folly of noblesse oblige: we’re going to tax those rich bastards at the top end of town and spend the money on renewable energy, helping people living on welfare and boosting the salaries of child care workers. It would be hard to devise a policy package with less in it for aspirational voters in the suburbs (except for the relatively few who happen to be child care workers).

  25. Diogenes @ #128 Monday, June 17th, 2019 – 12:18 pm

    I’m not sure a criminal conviction is enough to boot someone from a political party. I expect not. There is probably a bringing the party into disrepute clause they might get him on.
    What a mess. Albo was very naive to think he could toss Setka so easily. People like Setka are very rare and very tough and will do anything.

    On the other hand you have to have standards by which you stand by, or you have no standards at all. So Albanese has taken a stand and seems to be going by the motto, ‘the standard you walk past is the standard you accept.’

    So the matter will go to ‘a fit and proper person’ test in the end. And there’s no way John Setka would come out of that smelling of roses.

    I also trust that Anthony Albanese did ring others in the room when the Rosie Batty reference was made by Setka, as reported, and ascertained their recollection before coming out to condemn him.

    I also trust that Daniel Andrews has more intimate knowledge of Setka’s history, being why he was quick to condemn him as well.

    Basically, however, Rosie Batty has become the third rail of domestic violence survivors and you should be smart enough to never touch it, even if ‘only’ reiterating your lawyers’ opinion.

  26. zoomster @ #130 Monday, June 17th, 2019 – 12:37 pm

    Diog

    The article I linked to earlier had a list of people who various leaders (well, mainly Rudd) have tried to expel from the party. The success rate doesn’t seem to have been very high.

    And NSW has a better success rate than Victoria, it seems. Anthony Albanese comes from NSW. So let’s just wait and see, eh?

  27. briefly @ #2068 Sunday, June 16th, 2019 – 10:26 pm

    …..

    We have to change the ways we think and act. We have been acting from weakness. This is self-fulfilling, really. It will ensure more defeats. We have to find our strength and use it.

    Finally you’re taking on board what I’ve been saying for years.

    Albanese must do whatever it takes to engage the public, otherwise the apathetic voter will not change.

    He must break the current mould and be brash and out-spoken. Capture the peoples’ imagination !

  28. Kayjay

    Possibly better to have chosen Gravity as the science. Nearly everybody has a firm grasp of that concept

    Yep, most people I come across have an intuitive understanding of general relativity 🙂

  29. Diogenes @ #128 Monday, June 17th, 2019 – 12:18 pm

    I’m not sure a criminal conviction is enough to boot someone from a political party. I expect not. There is probably a bringing the party into disrepute clause they might get him on.
    What a mess. Albo was very naive to think he could toss Setka so easily. People like Setka are very rare and very tough and will do anything.

    This is the perfect opportunity for Albanese to create a strong persona and show the Australian public he has a spine.

    He must take on and defeat Setka . This is a career death match between the two of them.

    I’m barracking hard for Albanese. The winner establishes a profile that sets up their future.

  30. C@

    ‘And NSW has a better success rate than Victoria, it seems.’

    Where did you get that from? It isn’t in the article I linked to.

    (I find your tendency to make this a “NSW Labor versus Vic Labor’ issue a bit worrying. On the other hand, I’m worried that that’s part of what this is – Albanese trying to secure his position by undermining Vic Labor. In which case, it’s a bit of a kamikaze strategy).

  31. zoomster @ #137 Monday, June 17th, 2019 – 12:56 pm

    C@

    ‘And NSW has a better success rate than Victoria, it seems.’

    Where did you get that from? It isn’t in the article I linked to.

    (I find your tendency to make this a “NSW Labor versus Vic Labor’ issue a bit worrying. On the other hand, I’m worried that that’s part of what this is – Albanese trying to secure his position by undermining Vic Labor. In which case, it’s a bit of a kamikaze strategy).

    I was simply referring to the fact that NSW Labor decided to expel Belinda Neal from the party recently, and we did it. Despite the fact both she and her husband John Della Bosca are both lawyers and one a former State Secretary of the ALP and so, conversant with the rules and regulations.

    It’s not a NSW vs Victoria thing, it’s just that we have recent experience in the area and that will probably help.

  32. Astrobleme, ‘How do you convince someone of climate change when they won’t even believe Relativity.’

    Well at least they can experience relativity in their everyday existance, whereas the effects of climate change have no effect on people at all.

  33. I suppose better education facilities and not gutting medicare, rather than slating home tax breaks to the wealthy doesn’t cut it with the “aspirationals” or the migrant communities either.

    And I wonder how you do devise a set of policies that satisfies everybody. I know, just don’t have any at all.

  34. Well at least they can experience relativity in their everyday existance, whereas the effects of climate change have no effect on people at all.

    You forgot the sarcasm emoji.

  35. Doyley, Diogenes.

    I am in agreement with both of you. Perhaps the proof lies in the pudding. Correct me if I’m wrong, but it appears to me that Albanese has gone to ground on the specific Setka- Batty issue.

    I haven’t heard him or any supporters for nearly a week ….. except for C@t who continues to support Albanese’s impetuous call whilst trying her best to mix in elements of Setka’s history to muddy the waters of the specific issue…… elements about which no one here would refute. And her nonsense arguments based on “sometimes you just have to believe the media”, a couple of days ago, to her post not far above “I trust this…….. I trust that”.

    And some other mis-facts added as spice for her story, such as that which Zoomster has picked her up on (WTTE that NSW ALL acts more decisively than Vic ALP)

    My guess is that Albanese is very much ruing his impetuosity and hoping it will go away. If not, and if he fails to recognise his error of judgement, HS future looks glum.

  36. Labor has to continue with its policies on negative gearing, franking credits and opposition to the 2022 and 2024 proposals of the tax package. To do otherwise is to undermine the rest of their proposals on health and education and the NDIS. Changes in these areas of taxation are inevitable as no government will be able to fund their spending proposals without these changes.

    Unfortunately this was not the election where change in these areas was easy to sell and of course they were subject to outrageous distortions about their effects and who would be affected.

    On a more optimistic note, lies and distortions have a habit of being found out because of the inherent contradictions upon which they are built e.g strong economy, house prices fall and rents go up if you change and we can spend record amounts on health and education at the same time as we lower taxes and continue to have sound fundamentals even though GDP is slowing and wages have been flatlining for years with no prospect of it changing.

    In other words Labor needs to stick to its guns. Short term pain for longer term gain

  37. FalconWA

    I was disappointed that the immediate reaction was a hint that everything would be ‘looked at’ and revised. I thought that was weak.

  38. z
    I know of a few high profile specialists who did a string of bad things (like sleeping with their intern) and were sacked. They get an expensive lawyer, muddy the water, go to court and win about ten million each time.

  39. Button pressed in NSW senate. Perin Davey – Nats elected 5th even though Molan tried to blow the whole show up.

  40. Sigh. A scathing assessment of the class treachery of the modern ALP authored by a guy who – if his accounts of himself on PB are to be believed – used to run his own business sufficiently profitably to be able to live in leafy Beecroft.

    I never claimed to be Working Class, so I don’t know where Meher got that idea from (and mate, if you think Beecroft is posh, you need to get out more).

    The whole point of my post was that in staying affiliated with – and being seen as – the creature of the unions, Labor is making a rod for its own back. It has hitched its wagon to a drowning horse.

    Sure, it should stay connected, but it should spread its wings more ambitiously.

    The Liberals just sat by until Labor’s job – the affluencing of much of the Working Class – had been done. Then they cleaned up.

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