Mopping up operations

Late counting adds some extra grunt to the backlash against the Liberals in wealthy city seats, slightly reducing the size of their expected winning margin on the national two-party vote.

The Australian Electoral Commission is now conducting Coalition-versus-Labor preference counts in seats where its indicative preference counts included minor party or independent candidates – or, if you want to stay on top of the AEC’s own jargon in these matters, two-party preferred counts in non-classic contests.

Such counts are complete in the seven seats listed below; 94% complete in Warringah, where the current count records a 7.4% swing to Labor, 78% complete in New England, where there is a 1.2% swing to the Coalition; at a very early stage in Clark (formerly Denison, held by Andrew Wilkie); and have yet to commence in Farrer, Indi, Mayo and Melbourne. Labor have received unexpectedly large shares of preferences from the independent candidates in Kooyong, Warringah and Wentworth, to the extent that Kevin Bonham now reckons the final national two-party preferred vote will be more like 51.5-48.5 in favour of the Coalition than the 52-48 projected by most earlier estimates.

We also have the first completed Senate count, from the Northern Territory. This isn’t interesting in and of itself, since the result there was always going to be one seat each for Labor and the Country Liberals. However, since it comes with the publication of the full data file accounting for the preference order of every ballot paper, it does provide us with the first hard data we have on how each party’s preferences flowed. From this I can offer the seemingly surprising finding that 57% of United Australia Party voters gave Labor preferences ahead of the Country Liberals compared with only 37% for vice-versa, with the remainder going to neither.

Lest we be too quick to abandon earlier assessments of how UAP preferences were behaving, this was almost certainly a consequence of a ballot paper that had the UAP in column A, Labor in column B and the Country Liberals in column C. While not that many UAP votes would have been donkey votes as normally understood, there seems little doubt that they attracted a lot of support from blasé voters who weren’t much fussed how they dispensed with preferences two through six. There also appears to have been a surprisingly weak 72% flow of Greens preferences to Labor, compared with 25% to the Country Liberals. It remains to be seen if this will prove to be another territorian peculiarity – my money is on yes.

Note also that there’s a post below this one dealing with various matters in state politics in Western Australia.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,119 comments on “Mopping up operations”

  1. In fact, the whole point of the new atheist movement is that humans are evolving primates that will inevitably say stupid things, and making up religions is just part of that package.

  2. Yeah, Sam is spot on and courageous almost all the time. About 20% of Muslims want to live under sharia law.
    I still don’t agree with him on free will but vipassana meditation makes you think he might be right.

  3. I’m just trying to work out what your motive is. Like I said, people say stupid things, the more of a platform you are given, the closer you are to saying something stupid.

  4. It doesn’t take beliefs to be religious to be dangerous if they are “sufficiently strong, fanatical and unshakeable.” Atheists can be dangerous too.

  5. Millennial says:
    Wednesday, June 12, 2019 at 11:28 pm

    …”It’s not, it’s a genuinely good quote of Dawkins saying something sensible, unlike all the awful ones that contradict it”…

    I also found a number of the earlier quotes you posted to be eminently sensible.
    Although, according to his little quiz in “The God Delusion” I am so dogmatically atheist that even he finds it objectionable.

  6. Roger Miller
    says:
    Wednesday, June 12, 2019 at 11:34 pm
    It doesn’t take beliefs to be religious to be dangerous if they are “sufficiently strong, fanatical and unshakeable.” Atheists can be dangerous too.
    __________________________
    I doubt that Atheism in itself is dangerous, it is after all a argument for an absence of belief.

    A person that was a Nazi, and also happened to be an atheist is another matter. In this case, they don’t hold an ideological belief in the divine, but rather a racial or cultural ideology.

  7. My motive is that Richard Dawkins and Sam Harris are bigots trying to pretend that their bigotry is part of their atheism.

    And I’m calling them out for being bigots, and bigots only.

  8. And I’m calling them out for being bigots, and bigots only.
    ___________________________
    Fair enough. They certainly should be equally dismissive of all religion, rather than seemingly picking Islam out for special attention. Which seems hypocritical as you imply.

  9. Congratulations Larissa on winning the 6th Qld senate spot seeing all Greens senators returned!
    Michael Berkman the only Green in Qld Parliament and one of the very few genuine politicians in parliament anywhere in Australia has revealed a”Position Paper by Concerned Scientists” which has been given to the Qld Government Regulator which concludes “that the DSC face a legitimate threat of extinction due to the Carmichael Mine project. ” DSC is short for the Doongmabulla Springs Complex.
    Any PB’ers who actually give a shit about the country might like to explore this document and understand why people genuinely concerned for the environment stand so strongly against Adani. It also shows that if Qld Labor approves the plan tomorrow they don’t give a stuff and need to be held to account and only the Greens will do that.

  10. “I doubt that Atheism in itself is dangerous, it is after all a argument for an absence of belief.”

    Anything can be dangerous. If there were enough atheists, it’d be possible to mobilise them against religious people.

    People are depressing enough that a lack of belief could be turned into a militant belief system.

    Dawkins doesn’t just say stupid things by accident – these days he goes out of his way to be “provocative”.

  11. Millennial says:
    Wednesday, June 12, 2019 at 11:31 pm

    …”Why do you think I’m arguing against atheism, nath?”…

    Perhaps, because it is difficult to figure out what you are arguing.
    Clearly you think Dawkins is an arsehole, but is it that you perceive him to be anti-Islam? Because that is certainly not true.
    He is clearly anti-Islamist, and anti-religionist more broadly, but those are not the same thing.

  12. nath @ #410 Wednesday, June 12th, 2019 – 11:40 pm

    And I’m calling them out for being bigots, and bigots only.
    ___________________________
    Fair enough. They certainly should be equally dismissive of all religion, rather than seemingly picking Islam out for special attention. Which seems hypocritical as you imply.

    That and there’s a difference between criticizing the Saudi Arabia for its repressions against its people and saying that newspapers shouldn’t hire Muslims as writers.

  13. “A person that was a Nazi, and also happened to be an atheist is another matter. In this case, they don’t hold an ideological belief in the divine, but rather a racial or cultural ideology.”
    So its not “an ideological belief in the divine” that is the problem, but rather an ideological belief.

  14. Sam Harris isn’t a bigot. He just factually points out the problems with Islam especially jihadists. He points out that in about 90% of Muslim terrorism, the victim is another sect of Islam. He spends a lot of time supporting moderate Muslims.

  15. So its not “an ideological belief in the divine” that is the problem, but rather an ideological belief.
    __________________________
    An extreme belief in any ideology, religious or otherwise is bound to cause trouble for others.

  16. Millennial says:
    Wednesday, June 12, 2019 at 11:37 pm

    …”My motive is that Richard Dawkins and Sam Harris are bigots trying to pretend that their bigotry is part of their atheism”…

    It would probably be quite bigoted to claim that a person’s atheism is simply an excuse for a desire to be overtly bigoted.

  17. Is Popper saying we should be intolerant of intolerant Muslims? Who decides when intolerance is okay and when it isn’t? I think Wittgenstein had the right idea with his poker.

  18. Diogenes says:
    Thursday, June 13, 2019 at 12:04 am

    …”Is Popper saying we should be intolerant of intolerant Muslims?”…

    Whatever he is saying in ANGRY RED with swastikas and a tiny little cartoon Hitler, is beyond my tolerance at midnight on a Wednesday.

    Goodnight.

  19. Diogenes @ #424 Thursday, June 13th, 2019 – 12:04 am

    Who decides when intolerance is okay and when it isn’t?

    IDK, maybe when the guy you’re stanning for promotes race science on his podcast, maybe it’s time to step back and wonder if your man just so happens to be racist?

    Come on guys, this doesn’t seem so hard to you to call this stuff out when the Right does it…

  20. There are differences between the races which can be studied by science. My son is doing a project on why Jamaicans dominate sprinting events. It’s a combination of nature and nurture.

  21. I think from memory Popper argued that it was up to the demos to decide what should and shouldn’t be tolerated.He conceded that they could get it wrong but felt any other way of answering these question would lead to tyranny.

    At least that is how I remember it, he was a staunch anti communist and the book was a critique of Marx as much as anything else.I went through this weird phase when I was young when I would get these kind of books out of the council library and spend Saturday night reading them instead of going out and getting pissed like everybody else.

  22. William Bowe says:
    Thursday, June 13, 2019 at 12:16 am

    …”I don’t think Karl Popper actually drew that cartoon. Could be wrong though”…

    Could also be that your reputation for having a subtle, dry wit is somewhat overstated.

  23. Diogenes @ #432 Thursday, June 13th, 2019 – 1:04 am

    Millennial
    I’ve got a podcast by Harris on Charlottesville I haven’t listened to yet. I’ll let you know when I have.

    Don’t worry about it, Diogenes.

    I’ve decided that I’m going to stop commenting here.

    I feel like, what you and I know about each other, I cannot see but an endless conflict between us over what has gone down this evening.

    I don’t know if I’ll become a lurker, I feel that I have thoroughly overstayed my welcome here.

    It’s been a cool 6 years, give thanks to William for the magnificent service he provides.

    Ta ta.

  24. Millenial,

    I would really miss your posts – they are though provoking.

    I think we are all a bit shell-shocked at the moment, and taking a break may not hurt, but please come back!

  25. Watching from Hungary, it seems as though Australia has gone mad.

    Twitter is unhinged, we have public servants ringing up politicians to intimidate them for speaking out about the AFP raids, and the media – even Independent Australia – is spending its whole time blaming Labor for everything.

    The CFMMEU issue has completely taken any heat off the government.

    And in Hong Kong, the government is setting out to destroy what remains of democracy there. I am guessing that democratic elections there mean that there is a “Strong” government in place, who will do a the mainland bids?

  26. Budapest itself is depressing. So different to 5 years ago.

    Being at the University is fine, but in the shops I am getting very hostile reactions – including being refused service in a coffee shop. Because I have very fair skin, and a history of close relatives who have succumbed to melanoma, I need to make sure my skin is fully covered when outside. I am concluding that they think I am a muslim with a funny straw hat rather than a hijab. It is an interesting (and actually extremely unpleasant experience for me).

    I imagine many people with brown skin just take this sort of treatment for granted. Male OH is not being treated quite as badly, although he made sure he trimmed his beard and left the Chilean man bag at home today.

    Most women my age dress like the Queen of England, and so I think I am considered to be not be dressing with enough propriety. 5 years ago everyone was really happy and friendly.

    It may also be just a basic distrust of any foreigner. I know from talking to my colleagues here that they are very bitter about being lectured to on human rights by Western Europe, particularly Germany. The EU elections have left a bitter tase in their mouth, because the European People Parties Group (Christian Democrats such as Angela Merkel’s CDP) tried to suspend Viktor Orban’s Fidesz party back in March, suggesting that they are really a far right party.

    I travel to all sorts of places, including mainland China, and so am used to authoritarian regimes, but this feels a bit different – people are very angry.

    Also, I worry that Australia will be like this in 5 years time. The unravelling of the left / progressive side of politics is now complete.

    I was thinking we needed a Front Populaire like that organised by Leo Blum in Paris in 1936. He brought all progressives together and won an election. But then I also remember the flight of capital that brought France to its knees as a result. The PF government lasted less than a year. Leo Blum, who committed the double crime of being a socialist and Jewish, spent the war years in a concentration camp in Germany. He survived to return to France after the war, but died soon after.

  27. Douglas and Milko,
    The whole world is going mad. Blame Trump. Blame Putin. Blame Erdogan and all the other Mini Me Authoritarian Populists like Orban. And Morrison.

    The Left is’t so much unravelling as being torn asunder by these goons. Think ‘A Clockwork Orange’. It’s why I hate classical music.

    It will only end in tears. Again.

    Hunker down, is all I can advise, because a shitstorm of natural resources shortages, mass extinctions, global warming catastrophes and population dislocation, is about to hit us and we’re going to have to learn how to fight for our lives.

    Those Hungarians are just the harbingers of the 4 horsemen of the natural apocalypse as I’ve described above.

    Enjoy the rest of your holiday. I wouldn’t be going back there anytime soon. It’s going to get nasty.

  28. Morning, C@t.

    Think ‘A Clockwork Orange’. It’s why I hate classical music.

    That sounds like a non sequitur, but knowing you I’m sure it’s not. I have deliberately avoided things like Clockwork Orange, so would you like to explain?

  29. Andrew Leigh@ALeighMP
    24m24 minutes ago

    Labor is now the natural home for small-L liberals: a preview of my speech at Deakin Uni today #auspol https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-should-target-unlikely-voters-argues-frontbencher-20190612-p51wuj.html

    Dr Leigh, who was demoted in Mr Albanese’s frontbench reshuffle, will say the party’s links to its “egalitarian” roots should be maintained but that Labor must also appeal to voters attracted by traditional Liberal Party values espoused by former leaders such as Robert Menzies, Malcolm Fraser and even Malcolm Turnbull.

    He will argue the Liberal Party’s links to the liberalism of early prime minister Alfred Deakin were now at breaking point, giving Labor an opportunity to expand its potential supporter base.

  30. Lizzie,

    The young violent skinhead in a Clockwork Orange loved classical music.

    The same music was the used for aversion therapy to turn him off violence.

    As usual with me, I have not seen the movie, but I have read the book. My son also read it some years ago, and found it powerful and insightful. And unfortunately, predictive.

    I am horrified at the intolerance I am hearing in Europe from well-educated people. It harken’s back to the Nazi’s educated thugs. Not that I am suggesting anyone I am talking to falls into that category, but they all know people who do.

  31. lizzie @ #438 Thursday, June 13th, 2019 – 6:31 am

    Morning, C@t.

    Think ‘A Clockwork Orange’. It’s why I hate classical music.

    That sounds like a non sequitur, but knowing you I’m sure it’s not. I have deliberately avoided things like Clockwork Orange, so would you like to explain?

    Hi Lizzie,
    A Clockwork Orange is a movie, based on the book by Anthony Burgess, about a dystopian future that looks very much like now. The Working Class have been turned against the Underclass in a very violent way, but also against the Intellectual Elites. Perversely though, these 21st century bovver boy gangs dressed all in white (symbolism!), love their ‘Ludwig Van’ classical music. Which they have playing in the background as they kick and beat the crap out of poor innocent people.

    That’s basically it. It’s a great, if depressing, movie to watch and oh so redolent of the times we are finding ourselves in. Don’t know about the classical music though. 🙂

  32. C@tMomma,

    Enjoy the rest of your holiday. I wouldn’t be going back there anytime soon. It’s going to get nasty.

    I am here for work – a big collaborator is here, and I am really enjoying that side of it. But the background vibe must be the way Germany felt in 1932 / early 1933.

    I am writing a grant – it seems to be my main job now, and I was summarising how our knowledge of things called cosmic rays has evolved over time. One review paper mentioned a German by the name of Hess working in 1912 as the discoverer (so now I know where the telescope name comes from, even if the acronym has different words in it). The paragraph then goes on to take about more discoveries by British and German scientists, in 1919, the mid 30s, and then a conference in 1946 in the UK.

    Knowing what was happening in Europe between 1912 and 1946, I marvelled that they seem to be able to keep working together through such horrible times. I believe Sweden was where a lot of information was exchanged – neutral ground.

  33. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Jess Irvine is sick and tires of the on again off again faddish government initiatives.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/our-yo-yo-diet-nation-needs-a-new-self-help-regime-20190612-p51x1e.html
    More from Jess as she writes about how the government’s chief productivity adviser has outlined a “fresh agenda” for national economic reform in an extensive interview.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/top-government-adviser-lists-reforms-needed-to-kickstart-economy-20190612-p51wz7.html
    Greg Jericho explains why the latest job figures don’t bode well for employment or wage growth.
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2019/jun/13/the-latest-job-figures-dont-bode-well-for-employment-or-wage-growth
    In this enlightening op-ed Kevin Rudd warns that China has drawn its red lines in its spat with Trump.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/fasten-your-seatbelts-china-has-drawn-its-red-lines-against-trump-20190612-p51wy4.html
    Meanwhile US defence chiefs have enlisted Australian help to secure the supply of critical minerals for batteries and weapons systems, to reduce China’s dominance of the sector.
    https://www.outline.com/53mmxr
    Oh dear! According to Matt O’Sullivan confidential have documents revealed Transport for NSW has prepared a “reform program” that includes selling property, raising fares and overhauling road levies.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/billions-in-savings-proposed-for-state-s-transport-as-costs-soar-20190528-p51rv1.html
    Australia’s steady pace towards becoming a police state isn’t being hindered by the Labor Opposition, writes Dr Jennifer Wilson.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/when-an-opposition-votes-for-bad-laws-democracy-is-broken,12798
    Wayne Swan explains why we must continue to oppose the trickle-down economics that is causing so much havoc around the world.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jun/12/inequality-is-growing-in-australia-labors-mission-is-to-create-a-fairer-society
    The SMH editorial is concerned that tougher NSW bail laws appear to have raised the risk that more innocent people are kept locked up for long periods awaiting trial.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/wesfarmers-looks-beyond-bricks-mortar-and-bunnings-in-digital-push-20190612-p51x01.html
    The Labor Party and union movement face a damaging deadlock as CFMMEU’s Victorian secretary John Setka defies the party’s leadership and refuses to resign from his position with the controversial building union. As I said yesterday, this is going to end badly.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/labor-setka-in-deadlock-as-cfmmeu-boss-digs-in-20190612-p51x2p.html
    Michelle Grattan tells us how Sally McManus to confront the CFMMEU’s John Setka today.
    https://theconversation.com/actus-sally-mcmanus-to-confront-cfmmeus-john-setka-118699
    Angus Taylor’s first speech since being re-appointed as federal energy minister has gone down like a lead balloon with energy chiefs reports the AFR.
    https://www.outline.com/CUuqSy
    Sarah Danckert tells us that the High Court has, in a 4-3 decision, thrown out ASIC’s case against a store owner in a remote community who provided lines of credit to Indigenous people who could not count.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/high-court-finds-indigenous-book-up-scheme-legal-20190612-p51wz9.html
    Andrew Leigh argues that the increasing conservatism of the modern Liberal Party gives Labor an opportunity to target “traditional” small-l liberal supporters of the Coalition drawn to open markets and civil liberties.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-should-target-unlikely-voters-argues-frontbencher-20190612-p51wuj.html
    Intimidating parliament – the Michael Pezzullo formula.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/intimidating-parliament-the-michael-pezzullo-formula,12799
    According to the Canberra Times a parliamentary inquiry into press freedom appears inevitable in response to federal police raids on a newspaper journalist and the ABC’s Sydney headquarters.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6214595/freedom-of-press-inquiry-now-appears-inevitable/?cs=14350
    Coles and Woolworths are at it again gouging suppliers.
    https://www.outline.com/TPdMZH
    Australian retailers have cranked up discount offers into “overdrive” ahead of the end of financial year sales as falling consumer confidence continues to dog the sector.
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/jun/12/sales-frenzy-australian-retailers-crank-up-discounts-as-consumer-confidence-falls
    The federal government will have to reassess water infrastructure for Adani’s Carmichael coalmine after conceding in a legal challenge that was lodged with the federal court.
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/jun/12/adani-coalmine-federal-government-loses-legal-challenge-on-water-assessment
    Leanne Wells writes that Australia’s health system needs to catch up with the forces that are transforming health care – the growth in chronic diseases and, in contrast, the exponential advance and variety of expensive treatments. She makes some valid points.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/in-memory-of-bob-hawke-it-s-time-for-medicare-ii-20190612-p51wuz.html
    Paul Fletcher has dismissed concerns the exclusion of Huawei from Australia’s rollout of next generation 5G networks will leave the country with more expensive and lower quality technology.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/new-communications-minister-denies-huawei-ban-will-hurt-australia-s-5g-rollout-20190612-p51wup.html
    More from Michael West’s website on #watergate.
    https://www.michaelwest.com.au/watergate-the-billionaire-the-minister-and-the-accidental-diplomats/
    Dana McCauley reports that the government has seized upon widespread calls for CFMMEU Victorian leader John Setka to step down to renew its commitment to passing legislation that would enable it to deregister law-breaking unions and ban officials for misconduct.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/morrison-government-renews-push-for-union-busting-bill-to-fight-cfmmeu-20190612-p51wzh.html
    Mike Bruce reports that the big four banks have responded to the Reserve Bank’s June 4 interest rate cut by slashing term deposit rates well above the RBA’s 0.25 per cent cut.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/money/your-budget/2019/06/12/interest-rate/
    Social housing landlords are evicting low-income domestic violence survivors because the abuse they suffer can be considered a “nuisance” breach under existing tenancy laws, a new study has found. Charming!
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jun/13/social-housing-landlords-use-domestic-violence-as-reason-to-evict-victims-study
    Law professor Isabella Alexander explains our copyright laws and the Australian Aboriginal flag.
    https://theconversation.com/explainer-our-copyright-laws-and-the-australian-aboriginal-flag-118687
    Angus Taylor has not ruled out the Morrison government reversing the nuclear energy ban, if a “clear business case” showed the economics were sound as he dodged questions about how Australia would meet its Paris agreement targets.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jun/12/angus-taylor-wont-rule-out-reversing-nuclear-energy-ban-if-business-case-stacks-up
    Elizabeth Knight wonders what Westfarmers is up to with its purchase of digital retailer Catch Group
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/wesfarmers-looks-beyond-bricks-mortar-and-bunnings-in-digital-push-20190612-p51x01.html
    Boris Johnson: a charlatan with bravado. Barely a word he spoke was trustworthy, writes The Guardian’s Polly Toynbee.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jun/12/boris-johnson-speech-charlatan-bravado-untrustworthy
    Yesterday Trump lashed out at new polling results showing the president in deep trouble as he mounts his 2020 re-election bid.
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/jun/12/trump-2020-presidential-election-polling-results
    Queensland gives us today’s nomination for “Arsehole of the Week”.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/queensland/committed-paedophile-brisbane-photographer-abused-15-children-20190612-p51x0d.html

    Cartoon Corner

    Cathy Wilcox on what’s going on in Hong Kong.

    From Matt Golding.




    A change of style from John Shakespeare.

    Andrew Dyson with Setka not going anywhere.

    Matt Davidson and the latest advice from the Productivity Commission.

    Zanetti on Albo dealing with Setka.

    Peter Nicholson returns with Setka’s presser.

    More on Setka from Jon Kudelka.
    https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/8d170c93ea0465ba040a546acbac0e02?width=1024

    From the US



  34. D&M

    I very much appreciate your descriptions and perceptions as you travel. I have read novels written between the Wars that gave similar hints of unrest, in which people visited previously friendly cities and found them changed.

    We also have the looming consequences of AGW, which will cause more disruption than the complacent can imagine.

  35. You won’t see much of me today as I’m going out to tend to the animals now and then set off for yet another Bunnings sausage sizzle in Mount Barker. After my first shift there I’ll race home in time to head off to a funeral at nearby Lobethal where a crowd of 3000 is expected! It’s like an Adelaide Hills state funeral and, being a Lutheran affair, the ladies have been cooking non stop for a week.

  36. C@t

    Never been a fan of Beethoven. 🙂

    This writer has some interesting things to say about the effects of climate change.

    Alex Steffen@AlexSteffen

    I’m skeptical that North American cities—the same cities that failed for decades to build enough housing for their own citizens, driving millions into poverty & homelessness—are going to undertake the massive transformations needed to welcome tens of millions of climate refugees.

    ***
    Unless we’re willing to welcome the tired, the poor, the tempest-tossed masses by building a nation that *can* welcome them, we will inevitably slide further towards oppressive measures to control mass population movements.

    ***
    A giant building boom—involving by-right development, transformative scales of investment in zero-carbon infrastructure and ruggedization, and the building of millions more homes each year, to create compact/walkable communities—that’s what genuine climate action looks like.

  37. Thanks Lizzie,

    I very much appreciate your descriptions and perceptions as you travel. I have read novels written between the Wars that gave similar hints of unrest, in which people visited previously friendly cities and found them changed.

    We also have the looming consequences of AGW, which will cause more disruption than the complacent can imagine.

    The AGW is a really big one – it is a background cause to the many people fleeing the Middle East and Africa. It does not make me feel comfortable that Boris Johnson (BoJo!!) has just received a large donation from a climate change denier. Of that people in France are convinced that Marine Le Pen will be the next President – and I actually agree with them. Most of the Gilet Jaunes would certainly be very much in favour of her.

    It is also useful travelling for work – you hear a lot more of what is happening than you otherwise would, because you are embedded in the culture.

    And, I may be more sensitive than others, because I have an enormous book collection about European history from the French Revolution onwards.

    My special subject is Europe between the wars, and I have been thinking about some books written from 1934 – 1938, about how Europe and Germany were changing.

  38. BK, your roundups are even more appreciated when one is offshore.

    I’ve spent the last 2 days at Gallipoli, and can highly recommend it as a poignant memorial to the futility of war. A highlight was Burak, the tour guide from Crowded House tours, who showed up with dreadlocks, covered in tattoos and wearing what could be be described as hippie gear. But he was a savant on the events of 1915, including having read all of Charles Bean’s official history and many other source documents. In short, the terrain and topography is what crueled it for the ANZACS. But the context of the global manoeuvrings helped illuminate the context. And looking at the gravestones, one was struck by how English all their names were, a far cry from contemporary Australia.

    Another highlight was the 3D experience centre created by Erdogan at the cost of 60 million euro. This was the Turkish view of events, which in short, they saw as great victory. The Turkish flag waving, myth making and heroic propaganda was enlightening given our politicians desire to wrap themselves in the flag.

    Plus visiting the Ottoman forts built in 1450 and taking several random ferries across the Dardanelles – if you have the chance, do it.

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