Mopping up operations

Late counting adds some extra grunt to the backlash against the Liberals in wealthy city seats, slightly reducing the size of their expected winning margin on the national two-party vote.

The Australian Electoral Commission is now conducting Coalition-versus-Labor preference counts in seats where its indicative preference counts included minor party or independent candidates – or, if you want to stay on top of the AEC’s own jargon in these matters, two-party preferred counts in non-classic contests.

Such counts are complete in the seven seats listed below; 94% complete in Warringah, where the current count records a 7.4% swing to Labor, 78% complete in New England, where there is a 1.2% swing to the Coalition; at a very early stage in Clark (formerly Denison, held by Andrew Wilkie); and have yet to commence in Farrer, Indi, Mayo and Melbourne. Labor have received unexpectedly large shares of preferences from the independent candidates in Kooyong, Warringah and Wentworth, to the extent that Kevin Bonham now reckons the final national two-party preferred vote will be more like 51.5-48.5 in favour of the Coalition than the 52-48 projected by most earlier estimates.

We also have the first completed Senate count, from the Northern Territory. This isn’t interesting in and of itself, since the result there was always going to be one seat each for Labor and the Country Liberals. However, since it comes with the publication of the full data file accounting for the preference order of every ballot paper, it does provide us with the first hard data we have on how each party’s preferences flowed. From this I can offer the seemingly surprising finding that 57% of United Australia Party voters gave Labor preferences ahead of the Country Liberals compared with only 37% for vice-versa, with the remainder going to neither.

Lest we be too quick to abandon earlier assessments of how UAP preferences were behaving, this was almost certainly a consequence of a ballot paper that had the UAP in column A, Labor in column B and the Country Liberals in column C. While not that many UAP votes would have been donkey votes as normally understood, there seems little doubt that they attracted a lot of support from blasé voters who weren’t much fussed how they dispensed with preferences two through six. There also appears to have been a surprisingly weak 72% flow of Greens preferences to Labor, compared with 25% to the Country Liberals. It remains to be seen if this will prove to be another territorian peculiarity – my money is on yes.

Note also that there’s a post below this one dealing with various matters in state politics in Western Australia.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,117 comments on “Mopping up operations”

  1. psyclaw,
    I prefer to take at face value Patricia Karvelas’ assessment of the John Setka situation than your pissweak attempt to exonerate him and bitch slap me, luv:

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-06-11/john-setka-expulsion-rosie-batty-shows-where-labor-draws-line/11199838

    It comes after The Age newspaper reported Mr Setka told a union meeting that men had fewer rights because of anti-violence campaigner Rosie Batty’s work.

    I’m sure they have the evidence you crave.

  2. P1

    “… and South Sudan, where the drying of Lake Chad has ‘exasperated’ tensions.”

    Exasperated tensions happen on Bludger as well. So it must be true.

    Oh, and Lake Chad is in Chad and is located over 800km from the South Sudan border.

  3. @P1…”Australians are going to be amongst the worst affected by global warming. You think we have a refugee problem now? Just wait a few years … but hey, we voted for this – and at least the stock market is up!”………

    Instead of pencils to mark a ballot paper perhaps they should hand out crayons…seems to be about the level of thought the average voter puts in when they vote..

  4. Boerwar @ #250 Wednesday, June 12th, 2019 – 6:10 pm

    ‘clem attlee says:
    Wednesday, June 12, 2019 at 6:03 pm

    Meanwhile the smell of real corruption hangs on two federal coalition members re water, but there are crickets regarding that story and they are both still in place.’

    Yep.

    Don’t be so pessimistic the newly minted Labor leadership are on to this and will stick to it like shit to a blanket – as PJK would say.
    There’s no way Labor will remain silent. No way. They’ll hammer this until the next election.
    Mark my words, the push back will be deafening. Real dog with a bone stuff. The ALP have learnt their lesson. Get on to it, stay on it. Get results.
    Any day now.
    You’ll see.

  5. mundo
    $600 million dollars buys you a lot of lies.
    But is there ever a use by date on purchased lies?
    Because if there isn’t, our democracy is a dead parrot.

  6. cat,

    I do not support Setka regarding the crimina charges. That, however, is not the point.

    The criminal charges and the Batty story are two separate issues.

    I have seen no evidence to support the media attack against Setka re Batty at all.

    You seem to put a lot of trust in the media re having evidence before going public with a story. Very quaint outlook. Emmar Hussar and others who have had their reputations destroyed by the media may disagree.

    If the media has solid evidence to support the story against Setka then release it. As far as I am concerned It is up to them to piss or get off the pot. If ythey do not provide something with more meat then ir is nothing more than bootstrapping.

    It is entirely up to you to believe what you like. Good luck to you. But to jump on Setka despite no solid evidence and based on assumptions and argue he is guilty because of totally unrelated issues then to me that is a bit like a copper dumping a few extra charges on a bloke simply because of his past criminal history.

    Anyway, time to really head off. Nothing more to really say on the issue from my end.

  7. C@t

    As it happens, I have been watching media all day, and the situation has changed from yesterday.

    I am not regimentally taking an anti media stance, but reacting to the ABC reports and interviews. The report was being massaged in real time. The i.v. with Chris Caine (sp) from Maritime Union was interesting as he was sitting near Setka and heard what was said.

    I have no dog in the fight.

  8. Dodson and Burney (and Di Natale earlier today) don’t seem to understand that Labor and the Greens lost the election and are therefore powerless to change anything for another three years; thought leadership aside, of course.

    Noting that Morrison took the opportunity to disappear the hitherto absolutely vital role of Envoy to Aborigines with the sad political demise of its sole historical incumbent, it is, therefore:

    Over to you, Minister Wyatt!

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jun/12/national-congress-of-australias-first-peoples-fights-for-financial-survival

  9. On Chris Bowen and Minns.

    Nick Evershed@NickEvershed

    I don’t get this story – the donation was declared and is legal, what the ALP then does with the money is up to them? Why does the ABC call it “the latest in a series of disturbing allegations”?

  10. https://www.breakthroughonline.org.au/

    The National Centre for Climate Restoration (Breakthrough) is an independent think tank that develops critical thought leadership to influence the climate debate and policy making.

    Breakthrough’s mission is to develop and promote strategy innovation and analysis that is essential to deliver safe climate restoration.
    :::
    Breakthrough has been formed on a non-political party platform and is based in Australia.

    https://www.breakthroughonline.org.au/film

    Documentary series – Home Front: Facing Australia’s Climate Emergency

    Breakthrough is currently in production with a new documentary series documenting the existential threat of climate change from a uniquely Australian economic and national security perspective. This powerful and eye-opening analysis presents some of Australia’s former security, defence and political leaders who all warn us that climate change is ‘a catalyst for conflict’ and a ‘threat multiplier’ as it fuels instability in the world’s most vulnerable regions.

  11. lizzie @ #261 Wednesday, June 12th, 2019 – 6:24 pm

    C@t

    As it happens, I have been watching media all day, and the situation has changed from yesterday.

    I am not regimentally taking an anti media stance, but reacting to the ABC reports and interviews. The report was being massaged in real time. The i.v. with Chris Caine (sp) from Maritime Union was interesting as he was sitting near Setka and heard what was said.

    I have no dog in the fight.

    lizzie,
    I just want to put the position that sometimes we have to believe what the media tells us. Not all the time but sometimes. It is for this reason that I can’t think why the story about John Setka’s comments wouldn’t have been corroborated in some way by The Age before reporting them. Not only that but that Anthony Albanese would have had the story confirmed with his own Labor Party sources before he went public with the call for John Setka to be expelled from the ALP.

    I know Tim Cain is supporting Setka’s version of events but I have seen too many union stoushes where sides are taken and both swear black and blue that their version of events is the correct one.

    Anyway, my opinion has simply been formed from those incidents which John Setka himself has admitted to. As well as what may or may not have happened wrt comments made about Rosie Batty.

  12. mundo @ #268 Wednesday, June 12th, 2019 – 6:31 pm

    nath @ #264 Wednesday, June 12th, 2019 – 6:27 pm

    Wasn’t it C@tmomma who said that Anthony Albanese had so much dirt on him what he could never be leader of the ALP?

    Catmoaner says a lot of things. I think she said this morning that KK was going to pounce and tear Potato a new bottom.
    Pretty sure that didn’t happen.

    I see the anti c@t circle jerk is in full swing. What a couple of tossers these two are.

  13. lizzie

    Mr Evershed does not seem to understand that this funny money is payola for Labor’s role in expediting the imminent Chinese invasion of Straya. The people of Australia have only narrowly averted paying a trillion extra in tax, death taxes, retiree taxes and a Herodian massacre of the innocents. All of these would have paled into insignificance with Labor’s role in either shutting Adani down or opening Adani up. Take your pick.

  14. Boerwar @ #257 Wednesday, June 12th, 2019 – 6:20 pm

    The coal trolls have for years used nuclear power as a unicorn. So the immediate question is this: What does Talyor want to distract us from?

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jun/12/angus-taylor-wont-rule-out-reversing-nuclear-energy-ban-if-business-case-stacks-up

    I get that.
    What I’m saying is that Labor will not let them get away with it.
    Labor is resolute. Strong.
    Itching for a fight.
    Exposing the lies.
    Ready to take these crooks down.
    No more cream puff politics from Labor.
    No sirree.

  15. Peg

    ‘…who all warn us that climate change is ‘a catalyst for conflict’ and a ‘threat multiplier’ as it fuels instability in the world’s most vulnerable regions.’

    No self-evident to everyone but the Morrison Cabinet.

    The Greens have not got a moment to lose.

  16. Boerwar @ #259 Wednesday, June 12th, 2019 – 6:22 pm

    mundo
    $600 million dollars buys you a lot of lies.
    But is there ever a use by date on purchased lies?
    Because if there isn’t, our democracy is a dead parrot.

    Here, this better.
    I get that.
    What I’m saying is that Labor will not let them get away with it.
    Labor is resolute. Strong.
    Itching for a fight.
    Exposing the lies.
    Ready to take these crooks down.
    No more cream puff politics from Labor.
    No sirree.

  17. Well, I’m off to our FEC meeting. First one since the federal election. Should be interesting. Hopefully I will have avoided mundo the magnificent legend in his own lunchbox, for the most part, by the time I get back. 🙂

  18. William Bowe
    says:
    Wednesday, June 12, 2019 at 6:51 pm
    Far be it from me to name names, Nath. If it interests you to know though, my gut feeling was that 30 might be a workable cap, and your count for today is 24.
    ____________________________
    cool. That’s high for me lately. I think 30 is fair enough. Although, if an argument breaks out, there might be a resort to overly long posts so as to get around it.

  19. Perhaps there might be a way to get a warning, then go onto the cap. If it can be done individually. C@t should be placed on a cap of 15 per day. Just as a trial to see how it goes.

  20. William I don’t know how plug in works; but here be a sledgehammer.

    In comments.php find
    comment_form();

    // Check if user has previously commented the post.
    global $current_user, $post;
    if ( ! is_user_logged_in() ) {
    // Insist on login
    echo ‘log in to comment’;
    } else { // The user is logged in…
    // Get the comments for the logged in user.
    $usercomment_count = get_comments( array (
    ‘user_id’ => $current_user->ID,
    ‘post_id’ => $post->ID,
    ‘count’ => true
    ) );
    // If the user has commented, output a message.
    if ( $usercomment_count >= 10 ) {
    echo ‘God knows your views on the topic’;
    } else { // Otherwise, show the comment form.
    comment_form();
    }
    }

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