Mopping up operations

Late counting adds some extra grunt to the backlash against the Liberals in wealthy city seats, slightly reducing the size of their expected winning margin on the national two-party vote.

The Australian Electoral Commission is now conducting Coalition-versus-Labor preference counts in seats where its indicative preference counts included minor party or independent candidates – or, if you want to stay on top of the AEC’s own jargon in these matters, two-party preferred counts in non-classic contests.

Such counts are complete in the seven seats listed below; 94% complete in Warringah, where the current count records a 7.4% swing to Labor, 78% complete in New England, where there is a 1.2% swing to the Coalition; at a very early stage in Clark (formerly Denison, held by Andrew Wilkie); and have yet to commence in Farrer, Indi, Mayo and Melbourne. Labor have received unexpectedly large shares of preferences from the independent candidates in Kooyong, Warringah and Wentworth, to the extent that Kevin Bonham now reckons the final national two-party preferred vote will be more like 51.5-48.5 in favour of the Coalition than the 52-48 projected by most earlier estimates.

We also have the first completed Senate count, from the Northern Territory. This isn’t interesting in and of itself, since the result there was always going to be one seat each for Labor and the Country Liberals. However, since it comes with the publication of the full data file accounting for the preference order of every ballot paper, it does provide us with the first hard data we have on how each party’s preferences flowed. From this I can offer the seemingly surprising finding that 57% of United Australia Party voters gave Labor preferences ahead of the Country Liberals compared with only 37% for vice-versa, with the remainder going to neither.

Lest we be too quick to abandon earlier assessments of how UAP preferences were behaving, this was almost certainly a consequence of a ballot paper that had the UAP in column A, Labor in column B and the Country Liberals in column C. While not that many UAP votes would have been donkey votes as normally understood, there seems little doubt that they attracted a lot of support from blasé voters who weren’t much fussed how they dispensed with preferences two through six. There also appears to have been a surprisingly weak 72% flow of Greens preferences to Labor, compared with 25% to the Country Liberals. It remains to be seen if this will prove to be another territorian peculiarity – my money is on yes.

Note also that there’s a post below this one dealing with various matters in state politics in Western Australia.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,119 comments on “Mopping up operations”

  1. Asha Leu
    Plenty of truth in that, this government is the worst government I’ve ever seen, even worst than the last term of the Cain/Kirner or Howard governments. If this was 1999, with a Howard government that compared to the current government had both positives and negatives going for it then there was something to debate but all this lot are offering is a tax cut then its difficult to debate its merits.

  2. C@tmomma says:
    Sunday, June 16, 2019 at 3:23 pm
    nath @ #1854 Sunday, June 16th, 2019 – 3:20 pm

    I only sing the hits C@t!
    And, in the tradition of ‘hits’, once you’ve heard them a million times they give you the shits.
    _____________________________
    Have you been drinking? Generally not a good idea to post if you’ve given the sauce bottle a good nudge.

  3. Boerwar
    My comment was in relation to Cassandra Goldie’s Guardian article that was linked earlier and you are right the ALP had six years to develop a policy but instead only offered a review because despite earlier reviews and well documented calls for why newstart needed to be raised but the ALP had gone missing just as the Libs have. People want to know why Bill Shorten wasn’t trusted only need to look at the lazy welfare policy despite it being a key federal government responsibility.

  4. It’s true what they say: you change the government, you change the country. Under the Howard govt we became insular, disconnected and selfish.

    Mr Denmore@MrDenmore
    Jun 14
    You get the sense that Australia was at its best under Hawke and Keating, facing the world with hope and confidence, full of a spirit of egalitarianism, innovation and adventure, protective of our heritage and offering a hand up to those less fortunate.

  5. Mexicanbeemer says:
    Sunday, June 16, 2019 at 5:28 pm
    Boerwar
    My comment was in relation to Cassandra Goldie’s Guardian article that was linked earlier and you are right the ALP had six years to develop a policy but instead only offered a review because despite earlier reviews and well documented calls for why newstart needed to be raised but the ALP had gone missing just as the Libs have. People want to know why Bill Shorten wasn’t trusted only need to look at the lazy welfare policy despite it being a key federal government responsibility.
    __________________________________________
    I agree – no doubt the “clever” thinking was the dolebludgers have no one else to vote for but us why give em any more cash

  6. Lars Von Trier
    It wasn’t just newstart but where was the ALP on the job networks and NDIS, there were mutterings about them but they should be at the front of a federal election campaign if you are serious about “a fair go”

  7. fess
    Same in SA. You’ll notice the peak is not just huge but it’s really early in the year. They tried to get us vaccinated early but it hasn’t worked.

  8. Mexicanbeemer @ #1908 Sunday, June 16th, 2019 – 5:37 pm

    Lars
    It wasn’t just newstart but where was the ALP on the job networks and NDIS, there were mutterings about them but they should be at the front of a federal election campaign if you are serious about “a fair go”

    Labors strategy was a small target strategy that involved keeping the narrative on ‘the big end of town’

    That was plan A, B, C, D and E.

    Any other policy area was minimized and the focus re-shifted back to… ‘the big end of town’.

    This strategy, I believe, was an admission of their communication shortcomings and a tactic of avoiding debate.

  9. Last year the Australian Communications and Media Authority found that Sunrise breached broadcasting standards for accuracy and provoked serious contempt on the basis of race when co-host Samantha Armytage and guests discussed the adoption of Indigenous children.

    Commentators Prue MacSween and Ben Davis made strong negative generalisations about Indigenous people as a group.

    The panel did not include any Indigenous person, made several factually wrong statements, and aired comments by MacSween that the stolen generations policy removed children for their own wellbeing and “perhaps” should happen again.

    The network has also agreed to train Sunrise editorial staff to identify and deal with sensitive matters, also within six months.

    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2019/jun/14/sunrise-segment-on-indigenous-adoption-lands-seven-in-more-hot-water

  10. Dio:

    Our work offers free flu jabs for all staff. These are usually done in April, but they only got them rolled out a couple of weeks ago. Clearly too late for a virus peaking earlier than usual.

  11. Mexicanbeamer
    I attended a seminar of the Making NDIS work series. Linda Burney and the lcal alp member were there.
    Lots of good ideas and listening and note taking.
    This was a series run around the country

  12. Zoomster: you have played an absolute blinder in relation to Rex Douglas and the Lisa Singh affair – 10-Nil, with Rex lucky to get nil.

  13. Confessions: I don’t entirely agree with your analysis re the article on Ms. Harvey the new WA LOTO. I thought the focus of the article was on the interaction between palliative care (for pancreas cancer) and voluntary euthanasia, It is Ms. Harvey’s personal experience in relation to this which has led to her needing to “find new love”. She has summarised as follows:

    “Quite frankly, if I knew I had to fight pancreatic cancer, for example, without having the health and palliative care options that were available to Hal, I might prefer voluntary euthanasia because I know the road is going to be rocky and too difficult.

    Which is a fairly spohisticacted contribution from a politician (see more detail in the article). I suspect that the journalist started with the good news in order to avoid frightening off readers, and it would have been quite odd not to have done so.

  14. Michael A @ #1893 Sunday, June 16th, 2019 – 4:51 pm

    Cat, when the conservatives have no agenda for the country going forward they can all agree on, they resort to the shopworn “unions BOO!”. Liberal and National, urban and rural, they all seem to agree on that. It is the glue that holds them together when most other issues have them running away from each other at light speed. Anyone focusing on “union misbehaviour” is just carrying spears for the Coalition.

    Wage stagnation, insecure employment, underemployed, climate catastrophe …

    Why talk about these issues when there’s one badly behaved union boss out of hundreds in Australia they can misdirect everyone’s gaze towards?

    Apparently the press gallery stenographers known as the insiders talked of little else this morning.

  15. EG Theodore: “Zoomster: you have played an absolute blinder in relation to Rex Douglas and the Lisa Singh affair – 10-Nil, with Rex lucky to get nil.”

    I’m a fan of zoomster, and her comments around the risks of being factionally unaligned were quite reasonable IMO, but there is a point that she and everyone else commenting on Lisa Singh on PB today missed entirely.

    That is, if Labor had put Lisa at number 3 on the Senate ticket, her popularity might well have won them a third seat. But, instead, they put John Short ahead of her for the second election in a row, and the end result was that neither Short nor Singh were elected, and the third potential Labor seat ended up in the hands of Jacqui Lambie.

    So, if one’s view is that political parties should be about trying to win as many seats as possible, as opposed to establishing sinecures for factional mates such as former Tasmanian state secretaries of the AMWU (of which the Senate is already blessed in the person of Senator Ann Urquhart) then Tassie Labor has shot itself in the foot big-time. This term, Labor will be in a weaker position in the Senate than they would have been with Singh there.

    It’s stupid politics IMO, but obviously I don’t get the fact that ensuring factional mates are taken care of is far more important for Labor than winning elections. This principle has a long pedigree, as anyone who has studied the history of the ALP in the 1950s and the 1960s will immediately recognise.

  16. I suspect that the journalist started with the good news in order to avoid frightening off readers, and it would have been quite odd not to have done so.

    As a woman reading the article I was struck by not one reference to her career prior to being elected to state parliament. That to me is very odd, and the complete opposite of reports we saw of Morrison and even Shorten when they were elected leaders of their parties, where we were given an almost blow-by-blow of their CVs their whole working lives.

    I know (because I had to Google) that she actually had a career prior to entering parliament, so I would rather the journalist focused on that, being substantive and relevant, Instead of her finding love again and with unsubtle hints to her age (as if people in their 50s don’t start or even have intimate relationships). Like I said, the article read like an eHarmony advertorial.

  17. Lars Von Trier @ #1902 Sunday, June 16th, 2019 – 5:28 pm

    C@tmomma says:
    Sunday, June 16, 2019 at 3:23 pm
    nath @ #1854 Sunday, June 16th, 2019 – 3:20 pm

    I only sing the hits C@t!
    And, in the tradition of ‘hits’, once you’ve heard them a million times they give you the shits.
    _____________________________
    Have you been drinking? Generally not a good idea to post if you’ve given the sauce bottle a good nudge.

    Didn’t I tell you that this clown was just Edwina St John in a new sock puppet’s clothes?

    You need no further proof than the resurrection of ESJ’s favourite slur against me.

    A slur which has never been true, and never will be.

    If only Mr Bowe had a rule about sock puppets. He finally twigged to Bemused’s sock puppet, but he doesn’t seem to have figured this one out yet.

  18. Didn’t I tell you that this clown was just Edwina St John in a new sock puppet’s clothes?
    ______________________
    Shouldn’t that just be a new sock? I mean if people are actually dressing up sock puppets then perhaps.

  19. Confessions @ #1912 Sunday, June 16th, 2019 – 5:51 pm

    Dio:

    Our work offers free flu jabs for all staff. These are usually done in April, but they only got them rolled out a couple of weeks ago. Clearly too late for a virus peaking earlier than usual.

    This isn’t true. I was told when my son had his shot last week that they are constantly adapting the Flu Vaccine as the season progresses. It’s why it comes out in fits and starts. Also, I was told that if you have the vaccine you should be covered for the whole season, even if it does mutate a little.

  20. nath @ #1921 Sunday, June 16th, 2019 – 6:37 pm

    Didn’t I tell you that this clown was just Edwina St John in a new sock puppet’s clothes?
    ______________________
    Shouldn’t that just be a new sock? I mean if people are actually dressing up sock puppets then perhaps.

    I guess you are factually correct there. Though if one were not a sock puppet in the first instance, then the sock puppet is a new you, is it not?

  21. yes that’s true… So if Lars is this ESJ person, then he/she is not a sock puppet but rather just a new incarnation. It could only be described as sock puppetry if ESJ was also active.

  22. C@t:

    I was off with the flu last week, 2 weeks after having the shot. My GP said I should’ve received it 4 weeks prior at least in order to be covered.

  23. I agree – no doubt the “clever” thinking was the dolebludgers have no one else to vote for but us why give em any more cash

    There’s a reason why neither major party has raised Newstart in real terms for 24 years.

    Not having a policy of raising the Newstart before the election was a dog whistle to those swinging aspirational voters who rail against any of their ‘hard-earned’ going to support those undeserving ‘dole bludgers’.

  24. nath @ #1924 Sunday, June 16th, 2019 – 6:40 pm

    yes that’s true… So if Lars is this ESJ person, then he/she is not a sock puppet but rather just a new incarnation. It could only be described as sock puppetry if ESJ was also active.

    I always thought that a sock puppet was you hiding your original identity inside a sock? So I looked up the Urban Dictionary and this is what they said:

    sockpuppet
    An attempt by a person banned from a forum to circumvent the ban by creating a new account under a new identity:

    ‘This new user sounds strangely familiar.
    That’s because he’s actually a sockpuppet for that asshole we banned last week.’
    #banned#user#asshole#troll#dumbass

    But also this, which tends to support your belief:

    sockpuppet
    A false identity adopted by trolls and other malcontents to support their own postings:

    ‘She brought in six friends to back up her story, but five of them turned out to be sockpuppets. ‘

    Either way, the tell gave it away. ESJ always used to accuse me of drinking and being a drunk. Something which I have extensively explained here that I never do at home and almost never do when I go out.

  25. Oh, Lars is definitely ESJ. I don’t know if the Lars identity quite counts as a sockpuppet, though, since he (?) was never banned and doesn’t post under the Edward/Edwina St. John handle anymore.

  26. The Coalition ripped one and a half billion out of the nation’s disabled in a single year this FY, and is planning to do the same in the next FY.
    It is low when you attack the disabled like that.
    But they have form.

  27. @ Kevin Bonham – I think the mistake people fall into is they think election markets are like horse racing markets, that there are connections that have access to knowledge (like is the horse really trying today) that the general public do not and that these people “insiders” will invest money on the back of this” information” only they have access to and the betting markets will reflect the outcome.

    Elections ain’t horse races, there is no inside information, everybody just goes off polling, sure the parties have private polling but that can just as easily be wrong.Iif the polls are underestimating the vote for the outsider enough down goes the favourite.

  28. Asha Leu:

    [‘Can’t really disagree with that.’]

    Please stop he ingratiation – one expects contra, lest the argument becomes circular.

  29. Asha Leu @ #1931 Sunday, June 16th, 2019 – 7:00 pm

    Oh, Lars is definitely ESJ. I don’t know if the Lars identity quite counts as a sockpuppet, though, since he (?) was never banned and doesn’t post under the Edward/Edwina St. John handle anymore.

    There is that. You can’t discount multiple personalities I guess. 😉

  30. ‘Diogenes says:
    Sunday, June 16, 2019 at 5:47 pm

    fess
    Same in SA. You’ll notice the peak is not just huge but it’s really early in the year. They tried to get us vaccinated early but it hasn’t worked.’

    We waited until mid May for our jabs to try an eke out some immunity during the tail end of the season. No side effects from the jab. The notifications may be a considerable underestimate. One grandson’s class had 13 children out of 22 home with the flu – as reported by parents.

  31. Lars Von Trier says:
    Sunday, June 16, 2019 at 5:33 pm
    Mexicanbeemer says:
    Sunday, June 16, 2019 at 5:28 pm
    Boerwar
    My comment was in relation to Cassandra Goldie’s Guardian article that was linked earlier and you are right the ALP had six years to develop a policy but instead only offered a review because despite earlier reviews and well documented calls for why newstart needed to be raised but the ALP had gone missing just as the Libs have. People want to know why Bill Shorten wasn’t trusted only need to look at the lazy welfare policy despite it being a key federal government responsibility.
    __________________________________________
    I agree – no doubt the “clever” thinking was the dolebludgers have no one else to vote for but us why give em any more cash

    The reason Labor ducked on welfare reform was because elements of the working class have given up on such measures. They have been lured away from the social justice values for which Labor and the unions have always stood. The unemployed are blamed for their misfortune. They have been systematically vilified by the Right for 40 years. The 2 million Australians that are short of work or out of work entirely are not seen as or treated as equal citizens. These are the economically disenfranchised and are treated as a burden on other workers. They are the undeserving poor and will be punished, as befits all those who have failed.

    This is yet another example of the political weakness of Labor…..and now Labor will be blamed again for the plight of these 2 million. Labor will be blamed for their misfortune and equally blamed for trying to rectify it.

    The remedy here is to coalesce around Labor. And yet this is also scorned as a choice by the Greens and the other anti-Labor voices. The beneficiaries here are the Right. They gain a campaign advantage. They collect votes. They accumulate seats. This is the pattern now. As long as dysfunction persists in Australian left-of-centre politics, this will get worse. It will get much, much worse.

  32. The Greens have not raised Newstart for 27 years.
    Not to worry.
    Newstart will be abolished by the Greens government in three years time and replaced with the UBI.

  33. ‘nath says:
    Sunday, June 16, 2019 at 7:25 pm

    ANyone else watching Chernobyl? It’s amazing.’

    I am guessing Taylor and Ley are probably enjoying it. After all, both are egging on a nuclear build.

  34. C@tmomma says:
    Sunday, June 16, 2019 at 6:31 pm

    …”Didn’t I tell you that this clown was just Edwina St John in a new sock puppet’s clothes?”…

    Wasn’t Eddie more of a Bronwyn Bishop style hard right winger?

    Unless he/she has undergone a near revolutionary change in political affiliation, it seems more plausible that Lars is simply a different person who also doesn’t like you.

  35. meher

    Yes, the whole factional thing is difficult. I understand the benefits – particularly when a faction is well run, it provides a mechanism to train up potential candidates and in the process, do a bit of useful weeding out – but when it’s too rigid, you end up with scenarios like Singh’s, and the overall objectives aren’t best served.

    Thanks to you & EGT for your kind words.

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