The Australian Electoral Commission is now conducting Coalition-versus-Labor preference counts in seats where its indicative preference counts included minor party or independent candidates – or, if you want to stay on top of the AEC’s own jargon in these matters, two-party preferred counts in non-classic contests.
Such counts are complete in the seven seats listed below; 94% complete in Warringah, where the current count records a 7.4% swing to Labor, 78% complete in New England, where there is a 1.2% swing to the Coalition; at a very early stage in Clark (formerly Denison, held by Andrew Wilkie); and have yet to commence in Farrer, Indi, Mayo and Melbourne. Labor have received unexpectedly large shares of preferences from the independent candidates in Kooyong, Warringah and Wentworth, to the extent that Kevin Bonham now reckons the final national two-party preferred vote will be more like 51.5-48.5 in favour of the Coalition than the 52-48 projected by most earlier estimates.
We also have the first completed Senate count, from the Northern Territory. This isn’t interesting in and of itself, since the result there was always going to be one seat each for Labor and the Country Liberals. However, since it comes with the publication of the full data file accounting for the preference order of every ballot paper, it does provide us with the first hard data we have on how each party’s preferences flowed. From this I can offer the seemingly surprising finding that 57% of United Australia Party voters gave Labor preferences ahead of the Country Liberals compared with only 37% for vice-versa, with the remainder going to neither.
Lest we be too quick to abandon earlier assessments of how UAP preferences were behaving, this was almost certainly a consequence of a ballot paper that had the UAP in column A, Labor in column B and the Country Liberals in column C. While not that many UAP votes would have been donkey votes as normally understood, there seems little doubt that they attracted a lot of support from blasé voters who weren’t much fussed how they dispensed with preferences two through six. There also appears to have been a surprisingly weak 72% flow of Greens preferences to Labor, compared with 25% to the Country Liberals. It remains to be seen if this will prove to be another territorian peculiarity – my money is on yes.
Note also that there’s a post below this one dealing with various matters in state politics in Western Australia.
D & M for QandA! Via video link, chatting to her friends. 🙂
Yup, these are my thoughts too.
C@t
Lol!
C@t
I second the motion!
Next job for LNP govt is to go after “green tape”.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jun/14/queensland-says-federal-water-decision-on-adani-reeked-of-political-interference?CMP=share_btn_tw
I am in no way anonymous on this blog, for anyone paying attention, so here is me on an episode of the ABC’s Future Tense from 2011:
https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/futuretense/sci-fi-the-return/3002620#transcript
“The Future” is my special subject, and at the moment I am feeling a wee bit pessimistic.
Michigan prosecutors are seriously using US RICO laws on the Catholic church with respect to child sexual abuse and its handling.
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/nation/prosecutors-crack-down-on-clergy-abuse-as-bishops-gather-for-conference
She may as well not be replaced.
I think we can all agree that the Adani Mine project is a shonk. However, it is solidly backed by the Coalition federal government, and now by a Queensland State Labor government who fears the sort of concerted anti Labor campaign from the unions and the LNP via social media that federal Labor has just been subjected to.
BK @ #946 Friday, June 14th, 2019 – 8:33 am
And the fightback is starting in Australia, to our eternal shame.
If you only watch one golf tournament a year you should be tuned in this weekend for the U.S. Open at Pebble Beach. Forget the Masters and Augusta and the British links courses, Pebble is the most scenic golf course on the tour with spectacular coastal scenery on holes 4, 6 through 10 and 17 and 18.
It’s a bit short and when the wind is not blowing, like today, is an easy touch for the pros. Tiger Woods, however, is currently playing the 6th hole after double bogey on 5.
When you watch them playing the 10th, you can follow my Pebble Beach story.
I was playing my third shot to the 10th green which is two-thirds surrounded by 30-foot slopes down to the beach. Unfortunately my ball sliced and landed on the beach.
As I approached the green I noticed there was a Sheriff’s car and the Pebble Beach hotel security wagon parked to one side. I didn’t think anything of it and climbed down to the beach to hit my flop shot up onto the tiny green. I was only about 20 yards away but was so far below the green that I could see nothing. I aimed in the general direction of the green.
I hit the ball cleanly and when I climbed up from the beach to the green I was happy to see my ball had not gone over the green onto the beach on the other side. It was on the green not too far from the pin.
But then I looked over the “cliff” and saw a group of men including the Sheriff, about 30 yards away, looking down. They were looking at the body of an unfortunate man who had drowned. If I had hit my shot just a touch harder it might have missed the green and landed on the body.
A bit unsettling.
Very sad the Adani bullshit. If the wetlands go, by the time they know they are fwarked…too late.
The issue isn’t the time approvals take, its the fact that they are approvals that should not be made. Running hard on Adani and the “convoy to qld” during the election, making it an iconic “jobs issue” for the RW is a very large own goal for the Greens that i reckon they will have to own their part in.
Interesting he post election posturing on tax. Corman seems to want to make the political focus on the ALP, use them as an excuse to not follow through. Libs will have a problem if they don’t deliver and that gets followed up by a recession.
Hmmm…any chance we can have a recession with lots of job losses but only in QLD??
Meanwhile Pelosi continues with her strategy
The Editor Devil
@fairchild01
·
7h
She said Congress would “hold Trump accountable” for his crimes, which I believe is why she’s going after McConnell ahead of time.
Quote Tweet
ABC News Politics
@ABCPolitics
· 7h
Speaker Nancy Pelosi: “We’re going to get the truth for the American people so that they can know what the attack is on our country, what the president refused to do about it, and what he engaged in to cover up what was done” (link: https://abcn.ws/2wPw0h1) abcn.ws/2wPw0h1
C@tMomma,
I really wish I had a good answer to this. The QLD Labor Government not giving approval to ADANI (and personally I do not think they should have given it) would only hold off the mine approval until the LNP win the next state election in 2020. ADANI are patient.
On the other hand, Labor will lose in 2020 partly because of the ADANI wedge, and partly because of the Cambridge Analytica type shenanigans.
Obviously QLD ALP feel that they have more chance of keeping government if they do not stand in the way of ADANI, and I think there is some truth in that, but I still think they will lose.
On the other hand, an LNP government in QLD will be a disaster for a lot more than the environment, including the homeless, public servants, people with disabilities, including mental lines – assuming they are of the eCampbell Newman ilk, and I see no reason why they would not be.
Of course the Adani approvals took too long. They should have been told to bugger off years ago.
Albanese has demanded the immediate suspension of Setka from the labor party and expulsion from early next month based on alleged comments he made at a meeting abusing Batty obtained from “ unidentified sources “reported in the Age newspaper. Nothing of any more substance than that.
Two union officials who were at the meeting have publically declared the story is bullshit. Sally McManus has also pretty much called the accusations bullshit as well. Meanwhile nothing from the Age or the media more broadly to support the allegations they have been running with apart from the initial “ unidentified sources “.
If Albanese was itching to stamp his authority and prove his manhood all he had to do was wait until Setka pleaded guilty later this month to the harassment charges and move on him then. However, for what ever reason, Albanese could not wait. He has made it clear the moves to suspend and then expel Setka have nothing to do with the pending court outcome but all to do with the Batty accusations. Accusations that now appear to be based on nothing of any substance.
As I have posted before I have no skin in the game with Setka. My concerns have nothing really to do with Setka. My concerns are with the apparent power of the media to write bullshit, make accusations and then bootstrap the story until they get the result they want. What happens the next time a media outlet writes a story accusing a labor pollie or union offical of saying or doing something supposedly outrageous based on unidentified sources ? Will Albanese jump in with a huge knee jerk and demand the person be expelled from the labor party immediately ? Or will Albanese pick and choose those situations he wants to get righteous about ? If Albanese was leader of the labor party when the slurs against Emmar Hussar were reported based in large part on unidentified sources would he have jumped in and demanded she be expelled or suspended ?
The court case against Setka and the Batty accusations are totally separate issues. Albanese is demanding Setka go from the labor party based on trumped up accusations and nothing more. What a junk of bullshit and a very poor read by Albanese. It will be interesting if Setka demands the labor party prove the allegations against him.
All Albanese had to do was wait until Setka pleaded guilty later this month to the existing charges against him. Instead he has jumped into the swamp with the media and legitimised the bootstrap against Setka.
Make no mistake. The media will try this on again against either a labor pollie or union offical. What will Albanese do then ?
The re election of the coalition govt has not engendered confidence in the economy. Funny that.
Surely you jest?!
Doyley
Albo played his hand to attempt to force Setka to resign before the court cases can be reported on.
Politically better if Setka departs the scene in advance and not be compelled to do so, after the case details are able to be fully reported upon.
Setka is on a good pay wicket and he doesn’t want to give that up sooner than he has to. Always back self interest.
It pains me to say this but I do think Labor need to re-consider Albanese position as leader next year if he keeps on trying to appease Labors’s political enemy the media which is Liberal/national party propaganda arm.
point 1
Speaking to people who were swinging voters , People do not care about the bellowing from politicians infact majority of the public prefer politicians to bellow , hence why Shorten ratings improved when he was in yelling mode attacking Libs/nats and the media, being polite just doesn’t cut it in the public.
I just dont think Albanese has that attacking bellow in him , as Shorten did
point 2
Labor/Albanese should be attacking the links libs/nats have with IPA / Newsltd , attack harder than libs/nats attack Labor links with unions
that will likely get the swinging voters onside
The concerns Labor under Albanese wont
Running hard on Adani and the “convoy to qld” during the election, making it an iconic “jobs issue” for the RW is a very large own goal for the Greens that i reckon they will have to own their part in.
You have seen the posts where they boast their vote went up and Labors down. For the Greens the Adani campaign has been a great success. It is only an own goal if they care about the environment.
Thanks BK for the Dawn Patrol.
Another high level contender for the coveted Arsehole of the Week award.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-06-13/teenager-charged-over-alleged-emu-animal-cruelty/11206458
Fun times indeed.
On another lighter note. Thanks everybody for assisting me as I revel in my promotion to “Rotter” Division Four – Second Class.
Also the real reason for Labors’ election loss.
One of my grandsons tells me the loss is because I forgot to wear my lucky green hat while voting.
I vow and declare that come the 2022 election this chapeau will be front and centre at the local polling booth ensuring a Labor landslide victory.
Mowing — toodles. 😎☕
Scott
I well bet my bottom dollar Albanese knows more about the issue than you or me.
The Coalition Government has a six year record of trashing the environment every which way it can. Not just a little bit of trashing. Big time trashing.
$600 million buys you the right to say ‘yes’ to Adani any which way you like.
10% of the vote after 27 years gets you nothing.
While the hand-wring Greens Party afficionados enjoy debating the micro issues and the culture war issues and weeping sincere tears about the environment, the bleeding obvious is that the Morrison badly WANTS the Adani mine to go ahead.
Morrison could use the Constitution to prevent coal exports but he will not.
Morrison got 51.5% of the 2PP. Hello Adani. Goodbye democracy.
End of story.
frednk says:
Friday, June 14, 2019 at 9:23 am
Scott
I well bet my bottom dollar Albanese knows more about the issue than you or me.
———————–
I hope he does , and i will not be disappointed with Labor under Albanese proves me wrong , i would be smiling
the bleeding obvious is that the Queensland Labor government badly WANTS the Adani mine to go ahead
https://www.outline.com/E7q3ek
Adani
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/the-way-you-spell-jobs-in-queensland-is-a-d-a-n-i-government-hails-mine-s-approval-20190613-p51xek.html
Pegasus says:
Friday, June 14, 2019 at 9:28 am
the bleeding obvious is that the Morrison badly WANTS the Adani mine to go ahead
the bleeding obvious is that the Queensland Labor government badly WANTS the Adani mine to go ahead
As the Greens only care about it as a wedge for Labor, who cares for the environment?
Gulf of Oman = Iraq WMDs = Gulf of Tonkin?
I recall the newspaper articles about the North Vietnamese attacks on US ships. I believed them.
I recall the remote sensing ‘proof’ offered for Iraq WMDs. Risible.
I note that one of the ‘supporting evidence’ claims for Iran being responsible for the latest two tanker attacks includes unspecified and unsupported US ‘intelligence’. This amounts to the playground argument of ‘is, isn’t’.
Another bit of supporting argument is that the attacks are so ‘sophisticated’ that only a state actor could mount them.
The ‘sophisticated’ attacks apparently involve a tinny with some scuba divers on them. The tinny approaches the tanker and the diver attaches limpets to the hull with a timer inside them.
These sorts of attacks were mounted three quarters of a century ago.
THAT is how sophisticated they are.
US Central Command is making soothing noises. Having lost tens of thousands of casualties in over two decades of war fighting in Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria, they do NOT want a war in Iran. Several players in Trump’s White House would LOVE a war. As would Netanyah & Co. (A war with Iran might just be the only thing that might save Netanyahu from jail.)
OTOH, if it IS Iran working through one of its non-state proxies then they have already achieved their first objectives. The oil price is up by 4%. Insurance rates for shipping in the Gulf is escalating. The take home message? We can stop 18 million barrels of oil a day going through the Straits of Hormuz any time we want.
Peg
‘Queensland Greens senator Larissa Waters predicated…’
After 27 years the Greens are excellent at predicting. Well done, Senator Waters!
imacca says:
Friday, June 14, 2019 at 8:52 am
Very sad the Adani bullshit. If the wetlands go, by the time they know they are fwarked…too late.
The issue isn’t the time approvals take, its the fact that they are approvals that should not be made. Running hard on Adani and the “convoy to qld” during the election, making it an iconic “jobs issue” for the RW is a very large own goal for the Greens that i reckon they will have to own their part in.
Interesting he post election posturing on tax. Corman seems to want to make the political focus on the ALP, use them as an excuse to not follow through. Libs will have a problem if they don’t deliver and that gets followed up by a recession.
Hmmm…any chance we can have a recession with lots of job losses but only in QLD??
imacca…..we are in a recession already in Perth. I didn’t see the official numbers earlier this week, but the jobs situation is already very serious here. The domestic economy will be in contraction. My own view is that unless the State Government reacts to this very quickly, they will lose the next election.
Voters are very unhappy. They will not hesitate to change the Government, which, very unfortunately, is focussed on the budget balance. In this respect, the McGowan Government is more conservative than the Barnett Government. Voters have no sentimental preferences for Mark and they will dump him if the economy does not start to pick up.
Odd system if Assange is extradited but Pinochet was not.
UK won’t extradite without ironclad promise of no death penalty jeopardy.
Adani
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/the-way-you-spell-jobs-in-queensland-is-a-d-a-n-i-government-hails-mine-s-approval-20190613-p51xek.html
Anyone who doubt what Albanese is doing should read the financial review article Pegasus lined to.
https://www.outline.com/E7q3ek
Albanese, who checked first with others who were in the room before making his decision, contends otherwise.
I think it’s quite possibly already too late for WA Labor. Maybe something will come out of State Conference to waken the Government. I’m not optimistic.
The proportion of Australians who would swap some wetlands that they will never see and will never visit and have never heard of for their very own personal job (as opposed to swapping someone else’s job) must be considerably less than 50% of the 2PP.
Scott
I’m told that Albanese thinks his courting of the media over the last six years means they’re ‘on side’. Insiders are nervous that he’s too trusting of this relationship. (Stress: I’m told. I don’t know if it’s ‘true’, I’m just passing on a view).
briefly
A state government cannot stimulate the economy without support from a federal government.
(my post repeated from the UK thread by Adrian Beaumont)
This is significant, from Adrian’s post re a poll hypothetical showing the Tories winning an election with Boris as PM:
The RW anywhere do not want an educated population. This is why Morrison has thrown taxpayers’ money at private schools but underfunded public schools by many billions of dollars. This is why they destroyed TAFE and are making it so expensive to attend university. This is why the are constantly attacking (public) school teachers.
They want a compliant, poorly educated bulk of the population who do not question why they are paid poorly or have bad working conditions. This is why the RW constantly attack and try to destroy unions.
Shellbell @ #1035 Friday, June 14th, 2019 – 7:39 am
But will they post-Brexit?
Boerwar
Iran being set up? That would be a yes.
zoomster
I’m told that the moon is made of blue cheese, (Stress: I’m told. I don’t know if it’s ‘true’, I’m just passing on a view).
‘…And among Albanese’s colleagues, almost all of whom support what he is doing,’
Pat Karvelas on twitter was also saying that she was getting reports that at least some Labor MPs found Albo’s actions dubious. The importance of this is not that there’s disagreement in the Labor ranks, but that these disagreements are being made known.
For six years, Shorten was able to run a virtually leak free ship. Albo needs to use the abilities he developed as Leader of the House to make sure uneasiness in the ranks is kept private.
zoomster
Did shorten take on the fight?
BoerwaR
I would add that it smells like Saudi/Trump fingerprints are all over this.
Victoria,
Fair enough re Setka. I have no interest in the man.
Albanese knew Setka was going to plead guilty to the charges later this month. Why not kick him out for that now ? Details of the cour case are already being reported by the Age. Use that to get rid of Setka. Why bullshit around and hide behind some media beat up about alleged comments made at a union meeting ?
All this rubbish about preempting outcomes of court cases is bullshit. Setka will plead guilty. He has confirmed that. Details of the charges are already public. Why not use that to get him out now instead of giving legitimacy to a media bootstrap that has divided the union movement and created more bad publicity than otherwise necessary for a already under attack labour movement.
Anyway, enough from me. Hope you have a great day.
Cheers.
citizen says: Friday, June 14, 2019 at 9:45 am
They want a compliant, poorly educated bulk of the population who do not question why they are paid poorly or have bad working conditions. This is why the RW constantly attack and try to destroy unions.
****************************************************************
George Carlin :
“Governments don’t want a population capable of critical thinking, they want obedient workers, people just smart enough to run the machines and just dumb enough to passively accept their situation.”