Mopping up operations

Late counting adds some extra grunt to the backlash against the Liberals in wealthy city seats, slightly reducing the size of their expected winning margin on the national two-party vote.

The Australian Electoral Commission is now conducting Coalition-versus-Labor preference counts in seats where its indicative preference counts included minor party or independent candidates – or, if you want to stay on top of the AEC’s own jargon in these matters, two-party preferred counts in non-classic contests.

Such counts are complete in the seven seats listed below; 94% complete in Warringah, where the current count records a 7.4% swing to Labor, 78% complete in New England, where there is a 1.2% swing to the Coalition; at a very early stage in Clark (formerly Denison, held by Andrew Wilkie); and have yet to commence in Farrer, Indi, Mayo and Melbourne. Labor have received unexpectedly large shares of preferences from the independent candidates in Kooyong, Warringah and Wentworth, to the extent that Kevin Bonham now reckons the final national two-party preferred vote will be more like 51.5-48.5 in favour of the Coalition than the 52-48 projected by most earlier estimates.

We also have the first completed Senate count, from the Northern Territory. This isn’t interesting in and of itself, since the result there was always going to be one seat each for Labor and the Country Liberals. However, since it comes with the publication of the full data file accounting for the preference order of every ballot paper, it does provide us with the first hard data we have on how each party’s preferences flowed. From this I can offer the seemingly surprising finding that 57% of United Australia Party voters gave Labor preferences ahead of the Country Liberals compared with only 37% for vice-versa, with the remainder going to neither.

Lest we be too quick to abandon earlier assessments of how UAP preferences were behaving, this was almost certainly a consequence of a ballot paper that had the UAP in column A, Labor in column B and the Country Liberals in column C. While not that many UAP votes would have been donkey votes as normally understood, there seems little doubt that they attracted a lot of support from blasé voters who weren’t much fussed how they dispensed with preferences two through six. There also appears to have been a surprisingly weak 72% flow of Greens preferences to Labor, compared with 25% to the Country Liberals. It remains to be seen if this will prove to be another territorian peculiarity – my money is on yes.

Note also that there’s a post below this one dealing with various matters in state politics in Western Australia.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,119 comments on “Mopping up operations”

  1. Another ridiculous situation.

    Sixteen months after the last public housing resident was forced from the Sirius building at The Rocks, the high-rise apartment block remains empty while the NSW government determines its fate.

    The future of the Sirius has been uncertain since the final tenant, Myra Demetriou, moved out in January 2018 – four years after the government signalled its intention to sell the harbourside site.

    The delay has frustrated the NSW Opposition, independent Sydney MP Alex Greenwich and the City of Sydney lord mayor Clover Moore, who said it was “unacceptable” the building remained empty.

    “With a housing affordability crisis, homelessness increasing and a social housing wait-list of 60,000, it is unacceptable that a building purpose-built for social housing has sat empty for over 16 months,” a spokeswoman for Cr Moore said.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/four-years-after-sale-was-announced-sirius-building-sits-empty-20190603-p51tyu.html

    https://pbs.twimg.com/card_img/1138311731632123904/hbAqUxHM?format=jpg&name=600×314

  2. C@tmomma:

    [‘Not really. I’m sure it’s what they both think.’]

    That’s most likely the case, though it’s not a good look for Morrison after instructing Dutton to have a wee talk with Pezzullo. I’m waiting for KK to pounce on this: eg, Morrison lacks authority, with heir presumptive Dutton flexing his muscles. It’s never too early for Labor to get stuck into these cretins.

  3. Not directly related to anything currently being discussed on PB, but can I recommend the BBC’s current series of Reith lectures, delivered by Jonathan Sumption, being broadcast on the ABC’s Big Ideas Program.
    The ABC is unable, for copyright reasons, to provide a podcast, but you can listen to lecture 1, entitled “More laws mean less liberty” and lecture 2, entitled “In praise of politics”at the Big Ideas home page: https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/bigideas/ , or go through this page directly to the BBC and get ahead of the ABC’s rebroadcasts.
    Well worth an hour’s listening. There are 5 lectures in all.

  4. Diogenes says:

    I’ll give it a shot! I’m stuck. It’s killing me and the intertubes aren’t helping me.
    How do I determine an exponential equation which passes through point A (-75,35) at slope -0.5 and point B (-65,10) at slope -2? It can be any exponential equation as long as it meets those 4 criteria. I tried using y=ae^bx + c and I could only meet 3 criteria.

    In general terms, you need to find a function, f(x), where f(-75)=35, f(-65)=10, f'(-75)=-0.5 and f'(-65)=-2 and where f'() is the derivative of f().

    For a cubic polynomial (e.g. cubic spline):
    f(x) = ax^3 + bx^2 + cx + d
    f'(x) = 3ax^2 + 2bx + c

    Solve for a, b, c and d. (You may need to set f”(x) = 6ax + 2b = 0 in this example to solve it?)

    (The exponential function is left as an exercise for the reader.)

  5. An interesting reminder.

    Lorraine Muller PhDx2
    @LorrainMuller
    26m26 minutes ago

    I notice that the various police unions are never called militant – and their members are the ones with guns.
    They stand by members if there is a death in custody.

  6. Mavis Davis @ #45 Wednesday, June 12th, 2019 – 9:33 am

    So after being dressed down by Morrison, Dutton shoots his mouth off again, “savaging” Patrick – insubordination writ large and a clear sign of Morrison’s lack of authority.

    Or, in a parallel universe somewhere, Potato demonstrates how a stand and deliver killer political operative takes no prisoners when engaging in hand to hand combat.

    Would that a few Labor members learn the art instead of go a grovelling and obsequious to Ms Sales on the television whenever summoned, like Albo did last night.
    Imagine Potato dining out on Sales’ gizzards if he’d been in that situation.
    Time for Labor to toughen up.

  7. Jaeger, I’m a little rusty at the maths (45 years of not thinking about it will do that to you!), but why do you assume the points and gradients will fit a cubic polynomial. Could any polynomial fit the data points?

  8. Mavis Davis @ #52 Wednesday, June 12th, 2019 – 9:51 am

    C@tmomma:

    [‘Not really. I’m sure it’s what they both think.’]

    That’s most likely the case, though it’s not a good look for Morrison after instructing Dutton to have a wee talk with Pezzullo. I’m waiting for KK to pounce on this: eg, Morrison lacks authority, with heir presumptive Dutton flexing his muscles. It’s never too early for Labor to get stuck into these cretins.

    Well, we’ll see. Check back tonight at close of business to marvel at how Labor got ‘stuck into these cretins’, I imagine they’re thumbing through the manual as I type to see how that’s done.

  9. Jaeger, I’m a little rusty at the maths (45 years of not thinking about it will do that to you!), but why do you assume the points and gradients will fit a cubic polynomial. Could any polynomial fit the data points?

    I have about 30 years of rust…

    The more constraints there are, the more variables you need:
    To join two points, you just need a straight line (y = ax + b)
    For two points and one slope (a bent line), a parabola (2nd-order polynomial) should work (y = ax^2 + bx + c)
    For two points and two slopes, you need a cubic.

    I cheated a bit, because I know that cubic splines are used to draw a smooth line joining an arbitrary series of points – the slope between each pair of points is kept the same so that it doesn’t have any “kinks”.

  10. mundo @ #57 Wednesday, June 12th, 2019 – 10:19 am

    Mavis Davis @ #45 Wednesday, June 12th, 2019 – 9:33 am

    So after being dressed down by Morrison, Dutton shoots his mouth off again, “savaging” Patrick – insubordination writ large and a clear sign of Morrison’s lack of authority.

    Or, in a parallel universe somewhere, Potato demonstrates how a stand and deliver killer political operative takes no prisoners when engaging in hand to hand combat.

    Would that a few Labor members learn the art instead of go a grovelling and obsequious to Ms Sales on the television whenever summoned, like Albo did last night.
    Imagine Potato dining out on Sales’ gizzards if he’d been in that situation.
    Time for Labor to toughen up.

    I see mundo the bullshit artist is back with his lies about Albanese’s interview with Leigh Sales on 730 last night. Two Bludgers independently reviewed the interview and found no such thing.

    Good little Liberal operative, mundo. Keep sowing that doubt about the new Labor leader and tending those seeds of doubt. Be aware though that others will keep checking to see whether you are planting poisonous weeds instead and calling you on it. Every. Single. Time.

  11. mundo @ #59 Wednesday, June 12th, 2019 – 10:22 am

    Mavis Davis @ #52 Wednesday, June 12th, 2019 – 9:51 am

    C@tmomma:

    [‘Not really. I’m sure it’s what they both think.’]

    That’s most likely the case, though it’s not a good look for Morrison after instructing Dutton to have a wee talk with Pezzullo. I’m waiting for KK to pounce on this: eg, Morrison lacks authority, with heir presumptive Dutton flexing his muscles. It’s never too early for Labor to get stuck into these cretins.

    Well, we’ll see. Check back tonight at close of business to marvel at how Labor got ‘stuck into these cretins’, I imagine they’re thumbing through the manual as I type to see how that’s done.

    If only this waste of blog space would sling his hook. He contributes less than a constructive zero.

    We’re onto you, mundo. Only a Liberal operative with access to internal Liberal polling pre-election would have been able to so successfully predict the outcome as you did.

    You probably think you’re so smart and we’re so dumb to fall for your ‘Concerned Labor supporter’ schtick.

    Not this little black cat. And I just hope that everyone else wakes up to your tawdry game.

  12. Globally, trust in news is declining, with falls in the countries surveyed of around 2%. In Australia, the annual drop was 6%, from 50% to 44% in 2019. But Australians still trust their news more than consumers in the United Kingdom (40%) and the United States (32%).

    Distrust in social media has also increased from 45% in 2018 to 49% in 2019.

    A majority of news consumers in Australia think media outlets do a good job of keeping them across events, and helping people understand issues. But less than half of the people surveyed believe news organisations are successful in holding powerful figures to account – which is one of the key functions of the media in a liberal democracy.

    These perceptions are shaped by the political leanings of news consumers. Right-leaning people are more likely to think news outlets succeed in holding people to account (56%) compared to 43% of people in the centre and 46% of left-leaning readers and viewers.

    Australians are also more attentive to fake news than news consumers elsewhere. The global average for concern about misinformation in the survey is 55% and in Australia, it’s 62%.

    People following politics closely are more concerned about fake news than consumers ambivalent about politics, which the authors of the report attribute to “the high level of public debate about political misinformation and foreign interference in the 2016 election, and concern about possible interference in the Australian federal election”.

    The survey suggests right-leaning news consumers are more likely than left-leaning consumers to worry about whether information online is real or fake, and much more likely than consumers in the centre to have that concern.

  13. If federal Labor backs Adani after the LNP and Queensland inevitably do, I predict the national greens vote will spike, with PV falls for both the LNP and particularly Labor.

    It’s going to be a pity for Labor to risk losing Albo, Plbersek, Kearny and others at the next election for the sake of saving Fitzgibbon and winning Qld seats. Their personal vote is probably enough to save them, but other urban labor and lib pollies should be nervous.

    we need electoral reform so conservative regional/rural voters don’t effectively get >5-10X the representation per capita as non-regional/rural areas. The nationals, with half the Greens vote get 10 lower house seats. Hare Clarke or something similar and a larger single parliament (no senate, but lower threshold to get in) is what we need. Yes there will be more PHON and others, but at least it would be more representative.

  14. Australians are also more attentive to fake news than news consumers elsewhere. The global average for concern about misinformation in the survey is 55% and in Australia, it’s 62%.

    And yet this hasn’t translated to the right-wingers doing any worse in the polls when it actually comes down to it. As compared to the rest of the world.


  15. ustainable future says:
    Wednesday, June 12, 2019 at 10:44 am

    If federal Labor backs Adani after the LNP and Queensland inevitably do, I predict the national greens vote will spike, with PV falls for both the LNP and particularly Labor.

    Bet it doesn’t. It will be just another example of the Greens failing the Environment. Instead of looking for viable methods to get out of coal the Green made sure Labor didn’t get elected by stomping all over the garden of the people affected.

    Basically the Greens and their ineffective noise and effective damage can go to Hell, the place where they are sending the rest of us.

  16. mundo:

    Labor is taking a confrontational stance. For instance, Albanese took on Dutton in an interview the other day. He was also firm with Setka. KK is also on the hunt for blood. I can’t comment of Albanese’s appearance on “7.30” as I didn’t view it, but as Cat points out, others took a different view of the interview to you. Please get with the vibe by supporting Labor’s new leadership team, bearing in mind it wouldn’t take much for the Tories to slip into minority government.

  17. The key part of the cubic equation is in the pieces of information given.
    You know that at point A (-75,35) at slope -0.5 and point B (-65,10) at slope -2

    So draw a straight line between -75,-.5 and -65,-2.
    Rise over run gives you a change in gradient of -.15. This is your a value, your b value then comes from -75*-0.15=11.25. So b=-11.75

    The c value can then be obtained by feeding in your values for a and b into one of these answers given above.

  18. Thx Jaeger, I see your youthful brain has a firmer grip on these matters than mine.

    I assumed the gradients at the two points may have been part of the same curve, and therefore wondered why you didn’t opt for a second order polynomial equation.

  19. ♫Regrets, I’ve ♪ had a ♫few
    But ♫then again, too ♫many to rate a ♪mention

    The following will probably rate a couple of Elephant Stamps in my book of regretful fat headedness —

    From The Australian.

    What has the redoubted Mr. Denis Dragovic brought to the pages of magic and mystery encompassed by “The Australian” ❓

    One example of the challenge can be found on the periphery of the religious freedom debate where the “quiet Australians” live. There is concern that legislating religious protections could open a pathway to anti-blasphemy laws and sharia. For the cultural elites this is fearmongering or a straw man argument.

    So there you have it Mesdames et Messieurs – make no mistake – Mr. Dragovic has hit the nail on the head with his fearless foppish folderol and, I brook no denial – the end must be nigh should whatever Mr. D.
    Dragovic is talking about not come to pass. Sharia law, cloven hooves and hair shirts to follow for sure.

    Hark ❗ I hear the sound of the four horsemen approaching on foot. 🦶🐎
    🎺 — The last Trump (one hopes).

    Please forgive me – I had not the courage to look at this item –

    Greater rigour needed in classifying secrets
    CHRIS MERRITT

    I fear that my mowing mania could be exacerbated merely by skimming this item.

    Smoko ☕ is over – mowing. 😎

  20. Victoria @ #68 Wednesday, June 12th, 2019 – 10:56 am

    People are under mortgage stress. Not surprising they were not comfortable with changes to housing policies.

    https://amp.abc.net.au/article/11200468

    I feel like that article is conflating “negative equity” with “mortgage stress”, which is wrong. Case in point:

    The full-time mechanic and father of two bought a three-bedroom house in Byford for $336,000 in 2015.

    Within three years, it was valued at just $280,000.

    Making matters worse, Mr Hughes went through a relationship breakdown, involving costly family court proceedings.

    If he was to sell the house, he would be staring at a $56,000 debt, so he was forced to stay put. But as the bills piled up, he fell behind in his mortgage repayments.

    Mr Hughes’s root problems are:

    1. Costly family court proceedings.
    2. Paying bills first and mortgage second.

    Unexpected costs and prioritizing bills over mortgage payments are what got him in trouble. He’d have been in exactly the same trouble had the market value of his house stayed at $336,000, or increased to $350,000, or whatever else. In all scenarios as long as he makes his mortgage repayments then he’ll have a house to live in. In all scenarios if he doesn’t make his mortgage repayments then he risks being made homeless. In all scenarios his monthly mortgage repayment amount is the same.

    Negative equity is fine. Australia needs a lot more of it because our house prices are ridiculous. The only alternative to negative equity is for house prices to become even more ridiculous, making the market more difficult for first-time buyers to enter.

    And Labor needed to do better at countering this kind of dodgy journalism and sellings its policies. Limiting negative gearing to new properties would result in more new properties being built, which increases supply, makes housing more affordable, and reduces mortgage stress. Simples.

  21. frednk @ #72 Wednesday, June 12th, 2019 – 11:01 am

    Mundo is a Liberal concert troll; he is doing what a concern troll should do.

    Of course he is. It’s as plain as the nose on your face. This is the same crew that set up 6 facebook pages to troll a Labor candidate with negative messages and encouraged derogatory comments about her. Not to mention using them as a platform to spread their lies. They are the same crew that spent hundreds of millions of dollars attempting to destroy the last federal Labor leader, and eventually succeeded with the aid of a sock puppet ‘political party’ that could slander Labor at arms length from the Coalition. Of course they would be getting about their business from Day 1 of a new Labor leadership and especially on one of the most watched social media sites about politics in Australia.

    Why wouldn’t you!?!

  22. C@t/a r

    Yes agreed that the personal circumstances of this particularly individual is key. But the perception of property prices going down further as a result of policy changes, would have only heightened their anxiety and belief for the status quo.

    As BK linked this morning, people at retirement age are grappling with mortgages and reducing equity in their homes.

    We surely need to factor this into people voting for the coalition.

  23. I was a doubter about Albo, but he has been very impressive as leader. The “concerns” of posters like “mundo” show that the Liberals are forming the same view.

    Keep it up!

  24. Has there been a video or audio made public as to what Setka actually said or is the basis of the allegations all down to unidentified sources being quoted in the Age ?

    I have no skin in the game either way but given the rush to judge the man guilty I am surprised nothing has been released as yet given that everyone carries at least a mobile with them today and nothing is said or done on the qt in the modern world. Hello Michael Daley for example.

  25. Victoria says:
    Wednesday, June 12, 2019 at 11:26 am
    “But the perception of property prices going down further as a result of policy changes, would have only heightened their anxiety and belief for the status quo.”
    —————————————

    This is an excellent point. A narrative of negative gearing changes lowering property values, leading to lower consumer confidence, leading to lower household sector spending, leading to lower economic activity, had started to take hold over the past 18 months or so. I suspect this led many who personally were in no position to invest in property to nevertheless feel anxious about the effects of that change on their own livelihood.

    If this is true, Labor needs to craft its policies to avoid their being credibly seen and described as threats to levels of economic activity – possibly overall levels, possibly industry-specific levels. This goes for climate change and environmental protection policy as much as for taxation policy.

  26. doyley

    I, too, have been waiting to find out exactly what Setka is supposed to have said as reports are implying that he directly denigrated Rosie Batty. As Rosie is now an Australian icon (deservedly), she is an ideal weapon to use for those who want to get rid of Setka. Which is, in fact, playing into Liberals’/Construction Companies’ hands.

  27. Notice how long the ABC allowed the Setka presser to run.

    Urban Wronski@UrbanWronski
    1m1 minute ago

    ABC doing a great job today of bashing Labor, unions and raising old scare of Chinese donations. ScoMo &co think we’ve forgotten the Glorious Julie Bishop Foundation and $500,000 donated to Liberal Party coffers in WA in 2017. Chris Bowen declared donation. Julie Bishop didn’t.

  28. @DanaScully2

    Where’s Michaelia Cash? She’s been targeting John Setka for years while ignoring fatalities on work sites. The developers will be thrilled

  29. Given the history of the MSM re unions and labor I am not surprised they are running hard with this story.

    A lot of people, including labor pollies, have been very quick to jump on the story and demand this and that of Setka based on , what I can so far gather, nothing more than unidentified sources quoted in the Age newspaper.

    Where is the evidence ,either video or audio, to back up the accusations that have been made against the man ?

    Setka may well be guilty of bad mouthing Battey and ,if so ,he should stand aside from the union and should be kicked out of the labor party. However, I would prefer a guilty verdict based on more than a article in a newspaper quoting “ unidentified sources “.

    Seems to me, at this stage, far too many are accepting at face value that the man is guilty.

  30. “Australians are over the news.”

    Including me. I read the Saturday Paper and bits of the The Guardian, but the rest are best ignored.

    Most of the “commentators” are boring, often wrong and disingenuous.

    The polls are bollocks.

    For information, I otherwise rely on my gut and the opposite of what Rex Douglas says on this site.

  31. Diogenes,

    I know that and once that is done then he should be dealt with by the union and labor.

    However that is not what is driving this current attack on him. This is all about accusations from “unnamed sources “ that he directly bad mouthed Batty. If that is correct then he should go now and not wait until the court appearance on unrelated issues. However, apart from a story in the Age quoting “ sources “ I have seen no direct evidence that Setka did, in fact, say what a growing number of individuals are claiming he is guilty of.

    Fake news is not the domain of social media alone and to accuse a person of saying or doing something based on a newspaper article and at this point nothing more substantial does not sit easy with me irrespective of who the person is.

    In the absence of direct evidence then this appears to be a witch hunt and it does raise the question of what gives media the right to play judge and jury based on what is so far unsubstantiated hearsay.

  32. Thank you all but the index number has to be a function of x. The base being a function of x is pretty straightforward.

    “I tried using y=ae^bx + c and I could only meet 3 criteria.”

    I think you need a fourth variable in there to capture all 4 criteria, but I have no ideas where it should go. (y=ae^bx + cx + d ?)

  33. I know that and once that is done then he should be dealt with by the union and labor.

    If he’s smart he’d have already done what any sleazy, corrupt CEO would have, and negotiated a nice quiet exit and golden parachute for himself.

  34. “If federal Labor backs Adani after the LNP and Queensland inevitably do, I predict the national greens vote will spike, with PV falls for both the LNP and particularly Labor.”

    Ridiculous – get out of the bubble, Adani is a non-issue nationwide. It couldn’t have had a higher profile in the last election and it only shifted votes to the conservatives.

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