Mopping up operations

Late counting adds some extra grunt to the backlash against the Liberals in wealthy city seats, slightly reducing the size of their expected winning margin on the national two-party vote.

The Australian Electoral Commission is now conducting Coalition-versus-Labor preference counts in seats where its indicative preference counts included minor party or independent candidates – or, if you want to stay on top of the AEC’s own jargon in these matters, two-party preferred counts in non-classic contests.

Such counts are complete in the seven seats listed below; 94% complete in Warringah, where the current count records a 7.4% swing to Labor, 78% complete in New England, where there is a 1.2% swing to the Coalition; at a very early stage in Clark (formerly Denison, held by Andrew Wilkie); and have yet to commence in Farrer, Indi, Mayo and Melbourne. Labor have received unexpectedly large shares of preferences from the independent candidates in Kooyong, Warringah and Wentworth, to the extent that Kevin Bonham now reckons the final national two-party preferred vote will be more like 51.5-48.5 in favour of the Coalition than the 52-48 projected by most earlier estimates.

We also have the first completed Senate count, from the Northern Territory. This isn’t interesting in and of itself, since the result there was always going to be one seat each for Labor and the Country Liberals. However, since it comes with the publication of the full data file accounting for the preference order of every ballot paper, it does provide us with the first hard data we have on how each party’s preferences flowed. From this I can offer the seemingly surprising finding that 57% of United Australia Party voters gave Labor preferences ahead of the Country Liberals compared with only 37% for vice-versa, with the remainder going to neither.

Lest we be too quick to abandon earlier assessments of how UAP preferences were behaving, this was almost certainly a consequence of a ballot paper that had the UAP in column A, Labor in column B and the Country Liberals in column C. While not that many UAP votes would have been donkey votes as normally understood, there seems little doubt that they attracted a lot of support from blasé voters who weren’t much fussed how they dispensed with preferences two through six. There also appears to have been a surprisingly weak 72% flow of Greens preferences to Labor, compared with 25% to the Country Liberals. It remains to be seen if this will prove to be another territorian peculiarity – my money is on yes.

Note also that there’s a post below this one dealing with various matters in state politics in Western Australia.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,119 comments on “Mopping up operations”


  1. Confessions says:
    Thursday, June 13, 2019 at 9:27 pm

    frednk @ #888 Thursday, June 13th, 2019 – 7:23 pm

    The weird thing about he Setka thing is there are politicians that believe what they read in the paper.

    The weird thing about the Setka thing is people thinking he deserves to stay in his position after years of public disgrace and bringing the union into disrepute.

    I’m at two mind when it comes to the CFMMEU. They are not shrinking violets that is for sure, but the building industry is not for shrinking violets.

  2. The weird thing about the Setka thing is people thinking he deserves to stay in his position after years of public disgrace and bringing the union into disrepute.

    The “weird thing” is why didn’t the ALP move to expel Setka years ago?

  3. They are not shrinking violets that is for sure, but he building industry is not for shrinking violets.

    That’s the problem. I reckon that photo posted here the other day of CFMEU Women (presumably the women’s arm of the union) which comprised all blokes said it all about the union’s leadership.

  4. “it is the nature of democracy that it sometimes allows rent seekers to seize, exploit and run down commonly-held assets, including environmental assets.”
    It is?. And “sometimes”?

    You kinda agree that the earth is sliding into environmental catastrophe but ‘it’s ok – would be worse under crappy socialism’.

    Monbiot clearly states he doesn’t know the answer but that we need to confront that the status quo isn’t cutting it. And that makes you want to go to the blue. corner and come out boxing for your political ideology.

    I want my grandchildren to see and feel the diverse natural environment I grew up with. I want them to live in a fair and just society free from the oppression of poverty and the Short and brutish lives Hobbes described. Environmental degradation and climate change will threaten all those wants. To that end I don’t care for left or right, Liberal or Labor, Capitalism or Socialism. What is clear is that we have known about the problem for decades – something has to change.

  5. I don’t give much of a toss about what he said/didn’t say about the Beatified Ms Batty.

    Wow! That’s a pretty horrible thing to say about Rosie Batty, meher baba! ‘beattified’!?!

    I think she’s been through enough in her life, and survived it with good grace, not to have a no mark like you come along and sneer at her in that way.

  6. Confessions
    When it comes to women and the CFMMEU, they are definitely hold outs. But I am two minds; I suspect the destruction of the CFMMEU would not be a positive outcome for the trades in the industry; and I suspect the CFMMEU are still there because they are no shrinking violets.

  7. Re. Alan Jones on Ahn Do. He should not have attacked Gillard’s father. It was completely over the top.
    Belatedly he apologised for same, proffering a qualified mea culpa, saying he had tried to contact Julia, but she had refused to take his call. I don’t blame her, she having been unjustifiedly vilified during her tenure, by all and sundry, including on this site Thomas Paine, a fervent apologist of Rudd.

    Jones is an angry old queen, who gets off by attacking those who don’t share his warped views. See, for instance, the manner in which he castigated the Toowoomba-based Wagner family. It was shocking, based on nothing more than anecdotal evidence.

    Having said that, at some stage, for the purpose of healing deep wounds, it’s sometimes magnanimous to forgive, though not forget. As cliched as this might sound, in my experience it’s best not to hold grudges for too long; for it serves no useful purpose to maintain the rage excepting the dismissal of Gough, which 44 years later I still refuse to forgive those pricks, Kerr, Barwick, Mason for orchestrating the downfall of an elected government.

  8. Setka

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/cfmeu-boss-john-setka-has-sent-1m-to-labor-coffers-over-five-years/news-story/c2c7f6b013afbf53c0d474273b3be024

    John Setka’s Victorian branch of the Construction Forestry Maritime Mining and Energy Union has handed nearly $1 million to the ALP since he took over as leader of the state division, and has significant influence over Labor MPs and the party’s national conference.

    Mr Setka opened the door to ending donations from the CFMEU Victorian branch yesterday as he faced expulsion from the ALP for reportedly denigrating anti-domestic violence campaign­er Rosie Batty. The CFMEU’s Victoria branch donated $973,614 from the financial years 2012-13 to the 2017-18 and campaigned hard to install two of the few Labor MPs to win seats off the government at the May election.

    The bulk of the CFMEU Victorian branch’s donations since 2012-13 — totalling more than $832,000 — have gone to the Labor Party’s Victorian branch.
    :::
    Mr Setka’s Victorian branch is a powerful part of a complex and at times unwieldy web of branches and sectors that make up the ­national CFMEU. The national CFMEU is now one of the richest unions in Australia following its 2018 merger with the MUA. It now has combined assets of $310m and annual revenue near $150m.

  9. Statement from ACTU Secretary Sally McManus on John Setka
    13 June 2019

    Today I met and had a long and frank discussion with John Setka. I told him it is in the best interests of the union movement that he resigns.

    I have consulted a wide range of union leaders and they share this view.

    There are several matters currently before the court. If media reports are correct the allegations John is facing are serious. I also note that yesterday John said he would plead guilty to charges of harassing a woman using a carriage service.

    I have previously said that if these allegation are correct they are totally unacceptable. There is no place for perpetuators of domestic violence in leadership positions in our movement.

    I want to make it clear that I cannot comment in detail on those matters, and this is regardless of what John said he intends to do regarding these allegations. This is because I am bound by the law in this matter. These matters are still before the court. It is important I explain this as I know many people do not understand how these laws work, and that’s fair enough, everyone can’t be expected to by a legal expert and to know the ins and outs of the law.

    We have laws that prevent people, in particular people in public positions, making comment on matters that are before a court. This is so that the court can go through its processes without outside interference. This is so all parties have the benefit of a fair process. This is an important principle and there are laws in place that prevent people making comments that interfere with this right.

    We have already put on record the union movement’s values and our principles regarding family and domestic violence. Everyone has a right to a safe home, workplace and community and we have been campaigning for many years for this. We also believe in equality for women and know that instances of violence against women are not just unacceptable, they stand in the way of achieving equality.

    I have also put on record our support for and total admiration of Rosie Batty whom we have campaigned beside and whose goals we share.

    Having these values means we must demonstrate them.

    Union officials and union members are doing this in workplaces across our country, supporting or standing up for victims of domestic violence and are working to achieve our goals.

    Unions have been, and will continue to, fight for improved rights to protect and support people leaving abusive relationships to protect themselves and often to also protect their children. This means unions are negotiating and winning paid leave so people can make these choices. This means having the discussions with employers, many of whom are supportive, but inevitably some who are not, and convincing them it is in our shared interest to implement measures that go towards the goal of ending family violence.

    As part of our work achieving these goals, we also invest in the education of our members, employers and the wider community in preventing family and domestic violence.

    This involves education on what it is, and how it is harmful, and what we can all do to prevent it. There are many forms of domestic violence, from denigration and abuse to the shocking statistic that as of today 21 women this year have been murdered by a partner or family member.

    This statistic does not include those women who have been murdered just by going about their lives, this number currently stands in our country at 69 women. All forms of violence against women are unacceptable and we will continue our campaigns to end it.

    Right now, representatives of the Australian union movement are fighting to improve the rights for woman and men, to be free from gendered violence at work not just in Australia, but across the world. We are in Geneva at the International Labour Organisation which brings together representatives from governments, employers and unions from every country. Australian union movement representatives are there arguing for a new global convention on violence and harassment at work, and fighting for better rights for all workers. This is also putting our values into practice.

    Working people expect their leaders to uphold union values and to be focused on advancing their interests. Our role is to do everything we can to improve the working lives of our members and aim to hand on better conditions to the next generation.

    Unions are democratic, member-run organisations and while John is elected by his members, he also needs to consider the interests of working people and the wider union movement.

    Where an individual’s actions cause damage to the whole movement, the interest of union members and the whole movement needs to be put first.

    The current Federal Government will use any opportunity to impose further, anti-democratic, anti-worker laws on all union officials and all unions, it is clear they will try and exploit this situation for their own ends. These laws will make it harder for ordinary working people to receive fair wages and conditions. We must oppose these laws.

    Now, in the interests of our movement, in the interests of working people, and in the interests of the values we share, I have asked John to do what is best for everyone and stand down.

    https://www.actu.org.au/actu-media/media-releases/2019/statement-from-actu-secretary-sally-mcmanus-on-john-setka

  10. Pegasus
    I make two points.
    1) 1 million over 5 years is 200,000 a year. In a game that requires you to hire people it is not a lot.
    2)The article is from the Australian; not a good source.

  11. citizen @ #694 Thursday, June 13th, 2019 – 2:34 pm

    Simon Holmes a Court takes a tremendous swipe at Angus Taylor over climate policy, that is, Taylor is useless at doing anything except making excuses for inaction.

    History won’t be kind to this energy minister for approaching the climate challenge with all the care and subtlety that Captain Smith of the Titanic approached the fatal iceberg.

    History will be doubly harsh on Taylor for his failure to navigate a course that captures the economic opportunities of the global energy transition.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jun/13/as-angus-taylor-ducks-weaves-and-dithers-china-zooms-past

    And does anyone think that angus taylor gives a damn what history will say about him, his family or his friends.
    He doesn’t give a damn because he will be f**king rich that is all that matters being f**king rich sitting on a big f**king throne on the top of a planet that is just a pile of ashes.
    How good is that

  12. This blog has become utterly toxic.

    I’m leaving. Fully of bullies and egos (Kay Jay???? Who or what is that?)

    I’ve been a lurker and contributor in many guises but no more.

    The only post worthwhile now is BK’s Dawn Patrol. Like the ABC 0745 radio news with John Logan

    Nothing else.

  13. frednk

    The next time someone on your team cites The Australian (as has been done on any number of occasions), especially re the Greens Party, will you please ‘call it out’ so I can be assured of your lack of bias in shooting the messenger.

  14. CFMMEU – Construction Forestry Maritime Mining and Energy.

    The head of the union covering workers in those industries is apparenetly, shall we say, ‘flawed’. He is facing charges to which he pleads guilty. Let the courts, the Party and the union members deal with that.

    What about the interests who run and profit from Construction, Forestry, Maritime operations, Mining, and Energy. Are they saints? Are they ‘flawed’? Are they all better than, say, organised crime?

  15. frednk:

    PBer Victoria appears to have some insights into the union, and in particular in the state of Victoria. She has said previously that members have wanted Setka to resign for some time, and that there are even members willing to stand against him if a ballot were called. This suggests to me that the union’s members do not think the current leadership is acting in their interests.


  16. Steve777

    Are they all better than, say, organised crime?


    As I said they are no shrinking violets. I’ve worked in a several industries in several countries. Things are often not like you would like them to be.

  17. shellbell:

    [‘Sally McManus has the same dreary writing style as Wayne Swan.’]

    I don’t really know how to express this without causing offence – so I won’t.

  18. If vested interests had captured Government in the 70s the way they have now, 80% of the population would be smokers and seat belts would have been rejected because the cost would collapse the economy.

  19. William Bowe @ #553 Thursday, June 13th, 2019 – 10:20 pm

    Look what you’ve gone and done now, KayJay, you rotter.

    I believe this is the first from you to me.

    Let me firstly chide you for your imaginary parties,🎈 wing dings, 🎈 hoedowns, 🎈 rodeos 🐎and pissups. 🍻They are complete crap as well as being non existent.

    I can see that I have to make myself more transparent – although how to do that without childrens picture books will be difficult. The stuff I post is mostly complete crap and is intended to be obviously just that. I suppose I could start most posts with Once upon a time. The problem with this is happen to know how all love stories and tales of derring do end – which is “then they died.”

    For

    Sgh1969 says:
    ..
    Jay???? Who or what is that?)

    I am an old man (80 in a couple of weeks time) just trying to get by in as cheerful and open fashion as possible. The personal to and fro distresses me – maybe if you contribute your bits and pieces you will find a niche that suits.

    So I go back to my Jack Reacher story – where I know that the murderous hero will win out against the murderous baddies.

    I hope that you Sgh1969 continue to post – the blog (just my probably delusional opinion) needs as much varied input as possible. For what it’s worth I have often felt just as you complained. I am truly just as described – old and ordinary.

    And so to back to bed and Jack Reacher.

    Goodnight all. Goodnight your majesty. 📙💤

  20. “The weird thing about the Setka thing is people thinking he deserves to stay in his position after years of public disgrace and bringing the union into disrepute.”
    But why get rid of him now having tolerated his behaviour for years with no complaint? They need a really good reason to go ballistic on him and they don’t seem to have sorted their reason out.

  21. At various times, Greens candidates have had to stand down because of offensive comments. I haven’t heard peg demanding to know why they were not only candidates but were let into the Green party to begin with.

  22. Steve777 @ #929 Thursday, June 13th, 2019 – 8:43 pm

    If vested interests had captured Government in the 70s the way they have now, 80% of the population would be smokers and seat belts would have been rejected because the cost would collapse the economy.

    And helmets would be something cricket fans wore after hollowing out a watermelon on Day 2 of the latest Test match.

  23. Kay Jay, you were just the innocent bystander of a frustrated partisan who probably resents your cheery disposition. Much like Fran Kelly attracts haters for her morning cheer. all the best.

  24. Dio:

    There was a Crikey article the other day from which I posted some excerpts which was among other things a wrap of Setka’s conduct. Essentially his behaviour over the years has not gone without complaint, nor have the complainants been silent.

  25. frednk says:
    Thursday, June 13, 2019 at 9:34 pm
    E. G. Theodore
    The Greens have got exactly what they want out of Adani. I am in awe of their success. It surprises me they are unwilling to take the prize.

    Firstly I apologisey to Sghy if I am a fully bully whatever the fuck that may be.

    Second. frednk – fair suck of the sav. LNP bullied by their Nat mates waved Adani through. Federal Labor was …. mute …. Qld Labor wet their panties and fast tracked all approvals ignoring experienced scientific experts. And .. wait for it .. it is the Greens Fault. have to chuckle. Seriously?

  26. nath @ #569 Thursday, June 13th, 2019 – 10:50 pm

    Kay Jay, you were just the innocent bystander of a frustrated partisan who probably resents your cheery disposition. Much like Fran Kelly attracts haters for her morning cheer. all the best.

    One of the most gorgeous and perpetually cheerful women I have known worked as a clerk in the office at the Emergency Department at the local Mater Hospital.

    One more than one occasion she was threatened with violence and was often abused – apparently because of her smiling countenance. Lovely girl. I wonder where she is tonight.

    My daughter tells me of the nasty and malicious customers who frequent the chocolate shop where she works. Strange world.

    Thanks also to Steve777.

    Over and out. 💤💤💤

  27. shellbell posts random comments from time to time but rarely supports them in subsequent posts. What, it must be said, is the legal profession coming to (?) – when one avoids responses to interlocutors.

  28. shellbell posts random comments from time to time but rarely supports them in subsequent posts. What, it must be said, is the legal profession coming to (?) – when one avoids responses to interlocutors.

    I don’t mind shellbell but really how can you expect an out of touch, arrogant, overpaid and lazy cohort like lawyers to do more or better than he does?

  29. Dio:

    Yes it’s true, neither Gillard nor Shorten were bolshoi enough with the union. But others have been vocal in calling for his resignation.

  30. fess
    I don’t recall Gillard or Shorten having a bad word to say about him. They ignored the problem for years.

    which as a member of Australia’s most successful and ruthless union you’d no doubt be very proud of. If you had to have dinner with someone from the AMA or CFMEU and leave without being robbed you’d be better calling in sick.

  31. Yes it’s true, neither Gillard nor Shorten were bolshoi enough with the union.

    This is like saying the LNP aren’t ruthless enough in their opposition to Rupert Murdoch, the asymmetry and inconsistency is very very hard to understand on any level.

  32. This is like saying the LNP aren’t ruthless enough in their opposition to Rupert Murdoch

    Nonsense. I’ve never prevaricated in my view that the LNP isn’t ruthless enough in their opposition to Rupert Murdoch.

  33. Nonsense. I’ve never prevaricated in my view that the LNP isn’t ruthless enough in their opposition to Rupert Murdoch.

    Well logically, if you are saying you do say the LNP should be more ruthless in their opposition to the LNP, besides me loving to see a link to that, I would say you are agreeing with me, while at the same time disagreeing with me.

    But never mind the much more important thing is I have the Bolshoi ballet, very much in white tutus and not pink doing the entrance of the shades, but I can’t get rid of the awful windows bar thing at the bottom of the screen.

  34. Well logically, if you are saying you do say the LNP should be more ruthless in their opposition to the LNP, besides me loving to see a link to that, I would say you are agreeing with me, while at the same time disagreeing with me.

    Your original comment implied that one cannot stipulate Labor stand up to Setka’s band of thugs unless one is simultaneously stipulating the LNP likewise stand up to Murdoch. I am stating that I have done both, therefore your comment is nonsense.

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