The Australian Electoral Commission is now conducting Coalition-versus-Labor preference counts in seats where its indicative preference counts included minor party or independent candidates – or, if you want to stay on top of the AEC’s own jargon in these matters, two-party preferred counts in non-classic contests.
Such counts are complete in the seven seats listed below; 94% complete in Warringah, where the current count records a 7.4% swing to Labor, 78% complete in New England, where there is a 1.2% swing to the Coalition; at a very early stage in Clark (formerly Denison, held by Andrew Wilkie); and have yet to commence in Farrer, Indi, Mayo and Melbourne. Labor have received unexpectedly large shares of preferences from the independent candidates in Kooyong, Warringah and Wentworth, to the extent that Kevin Bonham now reckons the final national two-party preferred vote will be more like 51.5-48.5 in favour of the Coalition than the 52-48 projected by most earlier estimates.
We also have the first completed Senate count, from the Northern Territory. This isn’t interesting in and of itself, since the result there was always going to be one seat each for Labor and the Country Liberals. However, since it comes with the publication of the full data file accounting for the preference order of every ballot paper, it does provide us with the first hard data we have on how each party’s preferences flowed. From this I can offer the seemingly surprising finding that 57% of United Australia Party voters gave Labor preferences ahead of the Country Liberals compared with only 37% for vice-versa, with the remainder going to neither.
Lest we be too quick to abandon earlier assessments of how UAP preferences were behaving, this was almost certainly a consequence of a ballot paper that had the UAP in column A, Labor in column B and the Country Liberals in column C. While not that many UAP votes would have been donkey votes as normally understood, there seems little doubt that they attracted a lot of support from blasé voters who weren’t much fussed how they dispensed with preferences two through six. There also appears to have been a surprisingly weak 72% flow of Greens preferences to Labor, compared with 25% to the Country Liberals. It remains to be seen if this will prove to be another territorian peculiarity – my money is on yes.
Note also that there’s a post below this one dealing with various matters in state politics in Western Australia.
The Greens trying to distance themselves from the Stop Adani Convoy – now if Adani hadn’t been approved today that would have definitely made my day.
People are talking past each other today. It’s like Chinese whispers.
EGT
The Extinction Rebellion, a global people-powered movement, is not the Greens Party.
C@tmomma says:
Thursday, June 13, 2019 at 5:51 pm
Lars Von Trier @ #790 Thursday, June 13th, 2019 – 5:48 pm
________________________________________
Always so much talk c@t :-
Secret Albo information
Your special meeting with Hawkey
Details about the Robertson campaign
Claims but never details…………………..
But the one thing we can always count on from you, ESJ, is bullshit, and obsessive targeting of me.
I’m flattered, actually, that you are so obsessively focused on me. I must really get under your skin. Good.
________________________
Of course, your actually rather amusing although in a dishonest way!
Pegasus says:
Thursday, June 13, 2019 at 5:51 pm
Has Albanese had anything to say today about Queensland’s gov latest approval re Adani?
Why should he; because of the stellar performance of the Greens, he is leader of the opposition; his view is irrelevant.
I wonder if Morrison has had anything to say. Perhaps he said “it is sad to see the wedge against Labor falling apart, but I am sure the Greens can work up something else.”
frednk @ #797 Thursday, June 13th, 2019 – 5:52 pm
The Greens vote increased in Qld because they take the environment seriously.
Labors vote collapsed in Queensland because their leadership delivered zero believability in numerous policy areas and wedged themselves.
Lar
Can you stop the name calling.
Pegasus,
Albo is going to the sod turning ceremony I believe.
Let’s be quite clear – the ALP never opposed it. Apparently.
“The Greens trying to distance themselves from the Stop Adani Convoy”
I, an individual Greens member state a fact – the Stop Adani convoy was not initiated by the Greens Party – and the misrepresentations continue.
Sure, Di Natale endorsed the convoy by joining it.
I understand the need to ignore the distinction.
lizzie @ #802 Thursday, June 13th, 2019 – 5:54 pm
Yes.
I’m going get Of this site for while because greens just blind as a doorknob.
Cat whining about being stalked amuses me given how she obviously “stalks” me.
‘lizzie says:
Thursday, June 13, 2019 at 5:54 pm
People are talking past each other today. It’s like Chinese whispers.’
Yeah. Comrade Xi has questions to answer.
Rex Douglas
I have already congratulated the Greens on their successful campaign against Labor; you don’t have to convince me.
There seem to be a few Green partisans that don’t want to accept the prize, but I do live in awe.
Ahn did a pretty good job last night, despite thhe subject:
frednk @ #814 Thursday, June 13th, 2019 – 6:00 pm
Labor gets the big prize donation from the coal mining union for the stellar job of wedging themselves.
Predictable now they send out Anne Aly to officially back in the Adani mine as economically and environmentally stacking up.
George Monbiot:
https://www.monbiot.com/2019/04/30/the-problem-is-capitalism/
Ah, a rookie mistake. But a common one.
Taxpayers won’t be paying for these project. The federal government will be paying, the same way that the federal government does all of its spending (by crediting the appropriate reserve accounts).
You are thinking of state and local governments, who obtain most of their funding from taxpayers.
Taxpayers don’t fund the federal government. The federal government funds the non-government sector. I know that is a strange concept at first. But it is completely correct. Otherwise people wouldn’t have the currency that they need to pay their taxes.
There is an immense amount of unused fiscal space in Australia’s macroeconomy at present. The evidence for this unused fiscal space is that there are 700,000 unemployed and 1.1 million under-employed. It would not be inflationary for the federal government to ramp up spending to the extent necessary to drive under-employment down to zero and unemployment down to 2 percent of the labour force.
C@t
I’m no Setka fan but I don’t think he denigrated Batty. I’m pretty sure he complained that her (heroic IMO) efforts have had an adverse effect on men (like him who completely need it) but I don’t think he insulted her or her fight.
So, er, how’s that posting limit coming along, William?
Dio
Is fuck up.
McManus interview re Setka on ABC RN Drive:
https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/drive/actu-boss-sally-mcmanus-asks-john-setka-to-resign/11207706
Diogenes @ #820 Thursday, June 13th, 2019 – 6:08 pm
The mere mention of her in his argument disrespected her.
Diogenes @ #819 Thursday, June 13th, 2019 – 6:08 pm
I have never said that he insulted her. What I am saying is that he made reference to her efforts having a negative effect on men in his situation, as his lawyers characterised it. Which he has now admitted to saying.
I’ve never agreed with that characterisation and he shouldn’t have either.
Labor would be better off with a pact like understanding with the Greens. Basically I would say:
Sydney
Grayndler
Page
McNamara
Melbourne
Brisbane
Adelaide
Fremantle
Wills
Cooper
Should all be reserved for the Greens once the current sitting Labor members retire.
It would give the Greens 10 seats – and would allow Labor to have its left flank nailed down. It would free up Labor to pursue regional seats. Win – Win !
Rex Douglas @ #823 Thursday, June 13th, 2019 – 6:11 pm
That’s what I said. By repeating his lawyers’ opinion he gave tacit approval of it.
Not very well I fear, AL.
That lefty paper; the British financial times.
https://www.ft.com/content/b8d24c94-fde7-11e8-aebf-99e208d3e521
Increasingly, large private-sector coal power producers are looking at renewable projects when they build new capacity. Adani Power, for example, has invested more than $600m in a solar plant in Tamil Nadu — a southern state with abundant sunshine.
To find reports of increased demand in India you have to look to the mining press and of cause the Greens. And even the mining press have accepted that China’s demand is decreasing and they are hoping India will fill the gap to give a slight increase in net demand.
It only leaves the greens, reduce production, reduce supply they yell; makes no economic sense as there is more than one country with coal reserves ( India for example) but boy as a method to wedge Labor, top shelf stuff.
adrian @ #816 Thursday, June 13th, 2019 – 6:07 pm
I don’t think Anh Do likes Alan Jones. 🙂
Pegasus @ #811 Thursday, June 13th, 2019 – 5:59 pm
Says the person who I wasn’t even speaking to. Stalking much? 🙂
OH GOD MAKE IT STOP
William Bowe @ #827 Thursday, June 13th, 2019 – 6:12 pm
Bugger ❗ 😈😈😈😈
Nicholas, your crackpot economic theories aren’t worth the pixels they are printed on.
Lars Von Trier
Of course, your actually rather amusing although in a dishonest way!
I might take you more seriously if you knew how to spell you’re. Or if your own dishonesty and embellishing of half-truths was in any way amusing. But it’s not.
The financial times article is well worth a read. The rate at which India is moving away form coal is amazing. I knew it was happening but not at that rate.
https://www.ft.com/content/b8d24c94-fde7-11e8-aebf-99e208d3e521
And this article details why anyone who invests in coal is delusional.
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/04/chart-shows-fall-in-planned-coal-power-iea/
This school of thought within macroeconomics is the most accurate and the most rigorous framework available…. and it is becoming increasingly mainstream.
You can order the text book here:
https://www.bookdepository.com/Macroeconomics-Randall-Wray/9781137610669?ref=grid-view&qid=1560414417482&sr=1-1
C@tmomma says:
Thursday, June 13, 2019 at 6:22 pm
Lars Von Trier
Of course, your actually rather amusing although in a dishonest way!
I might take you more seriously if you knew how to spell you’re. Or if your own dishonesty and embellishing of half-truths was in any way amusing. But it’s not.
_________________________________________
Remember Jesus loves you c@t!
One of the Mayors (there’s been a collection of them today, all rejoicing at the Adani decision) possibly Rockhampton, said that it was a complete beat up that more coal freighters moving through the GBR would cause any damage. Abbott Point he dismissed.
Rex and C@t
I agree he was wrong to say it (the man is a dickhead) but lots of people are wrong about lots of things without getting sacked for it.
I think he should he removed as leader for his domestic violence (upcoming) conviction.
lizzie
There seems to be no end of moron’s within the Australian political system.
A government full of scandals, and that’s what the media cares about?
Investing in a coal mine in Australia is the action of a crackpot.
It doesn’t accord with environmental needs; it’s an embarrassing abrogation of Australia’s responsibilities as an economically advanced nation; and it ignores the falling costs of renewables plus storage.
Farrk, is The Drum for real? Who is that Parnell woman? Why are people opining on subjects they know nothing about?
I assume that The Drum is exceedingly cheap to produce.
Lizzie
SMaiden’s tweet about McManus now accepting that Setka did not denigrate Ms Batty, shows that your’s and mine and others’ scepticism about how he had been jumped on despite the apparent lack of evidence was justified.
Albo certainly jumped the shark.
Now the argument is being massaged to demands that Setka should resign because of his wider history and bad conduct.
C@t is back peddling here at the rate of knots, after pursuing the issue strenuously, here last night.
As far as I can see, Albo has gone to ground on the matter. Happy to be shown otherwise.
Lars Von Trier @ #838 Thursday, June 13th, 2019 – 6:27 pm
I find it hard to imagine how some Middle Eastern charismatic preacher who was alive over 2000 years ago even knows I exist, let alone loves me, but whatever floats your boat.
Adrian
Parnelle is the Lib shill daughter of P P McGuiness
The Victorian CEPU and CFMMEU being “offside” with the ALP will be interesting.
Setka will go – but not until suitable terms are agreed.
But where do these unions go? Presumably the Greens is the only option.
Political fragmentation continues……………………….